Sleep Duration in the United States 2003-2016:First Signs of Success in the Fight Against Sleep Deficiency? Mathias Basner, David F Dinges. Sleep, zsy012, https://doi.org/10.1093/sleep/zsy012
Abstract
Study Objectives: The high prevalence of chronic insufficient sleep in the population has been a concern due to the associated health and safety risks. We evaluated secular trends in sleep duration over the most recent 14-year period.
Methods: The American Time Use Survey (ATUS), representative of US residents ≥ 15 years, was used to investigate trends in self-reported sleep duration and waking activities for the period 2003-2016 (N=181,335 respondents).
Results: Sleep duration increased across survey years both on weekdays (+1.40 min/year) and weekends (+0.83 min/year, both p < 0.0001, adjusted models). This trend was observed in students, employed respondents, and retirees, but not in those unemployed or not in the labor force. On workdays, the prevalence of short ( ≤ 7h), average ( > 7-9h), and long ( > 9h) sleep changed by -0.44%/year (p < 0.0001), -0.03%/year (p=0.5515), and +0.48%/year (p < 0.0001), respectively. The change in sleep duration was predominantly explained by respondents retiring earlier in the evening. The percentage of respondents who watched TV or read before bed – two prominent waking activities competing with sleep – decreased over the same time period, suggesting that portions of the population are increasingly willing to trade time in leisure activities for more sleep. The results also suggest that increasing online opportunities to work, learn, bank, shop, and perform administrative tasks from home freed up time that likely contributed to increased sleep duration.
Conclusions: The findings indicate first successes in the fight against sleep deficiency. Public health consequences of the observed increase in the prevalence of long sleep remain unclear and warrant further investigation.
Keywords: sleep duration, short sleep, long sleep, secular trend, health, time use
Monday, January 8, 2018
Negative correlation between salivary testosterone concentration and preference for sophisticated music in males
Negative correlation between salivary testosterone concentration and preference for sophisticated music in males. Hirokazu Doi et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 125, 15 April 2018, Pages 106–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2017.11.041
Highlights
• We investigated the association between salivary testosterone level and music preference.
• The analysis revealed a negative correlation between testosterone level and the preference for sophisticated music.
• The association between testosterone level and music preference was not mediated by big-five personality.
Abstract: Music constitutes an integral part of everyday life. There is great variation in preference patterns for music. However, the cause of such individual differences has not been fully elucidated to date. Many behavioral traits, including personality, are known to be influenced by steroid-hormone testosterone. On this basis, we conjectured that testosterone partly determines individual differences in music preference. To examine this hypothesis, in the present study, we investigated the association between salivary testosterone concentration and strength of preference for five different music types in young males and females. The results revealed a significant negative correlation between salivary testosterone concentration and preference for sophisticated music, such as classical and jazz in males. This relationship was not mediated by the big-five personality traits. These findings indicate the possibility that neuroendocrinological function can exert influences on music preference patterns.
Keywords: Music; Preference; Testosterone; Personality
Highlights
• We investigated the association between salivary testosterone level and music preference.
• The analysis revealed a negative correlation between testosterone level and the preference for sophisticated music.
• The association between testosterone level and music preference was not mediated by big-five personality.
Abstract: Music constitutes an integral part of everyday life. There is great variation in preference patterns for music. However, the cause of such individual differences has not been fully elucidated to date. Many behavioral traits, including personality, are known to be influenced by steroid-hormone testosterone. On this basis, we conjectured that testosterone partly determines individual differences in music preference. To examine this hypothesis, in the present study, we investigated the association between salivary testosterone concentration and strength of preference for five different music types in young males and females. The results revealed a significant negative correlation between salivary testosterone concentration and preference for sophisticated music, such as classical and jazz in males. This relationship was not mediated by the big-five personality traits. These findings indicate the possibility that neuroendocrinological function can exert influences on music preference patterns.
Keywords: Music; Preference; Testosterone; Personality
Women Interact More Comfortably and Intimately With Gay Men—But Not Straight Men—After Learning Their Sexual Orientation
Women Interact More Comfortably and Intimately With Gay Men—But Not Straight Men—After Learning Their Sexual Orientation. Eric M. Russell, William Ickes, Vivian P. Ta, Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617733803
Abstract: Research suggests that the development of close, opposite-sex friendships is frequently impeded by men’s often one-sided sexual attraction to women. But what if this element were removed? The current research tested the hypothesis that women engage in more comfortable and intimate interactions with a gay (but not a straight) man immediately after discovering his sexual orientation. In two studies, female participants engaged in imagined or actual initial interactions with either a straight man or a gay man. After the man’s sexual orientation was revealed, women (particularly attractive ones) who were paired with a gay man reported greater anticipated comfort, which was mediated by their reduced worry about his sexual intentions (Study 1). Further, once women discovered that they were interacting with a gay man, they displayed more intimate engagement behaviors with him (Study 2). These findings reveal how, and why, close relationships often form quickly between women and gay men.
Keywords: initial interactions, heterosexual women, homosexual men, sexual orientation, opposite-sex friendship, sexual attraction, open data, open materials
Abstract: Research suggests that the development of close, opposite-sex friendships is frequently impeded by men’s often one-sided sexual attraction to women. But what if this element were removed? The current research tested the hypothesis that women engage in more comfortable and intimate interactions with a gay (but not a straight) man immediately after discovering his sexual orientation. In two studies, female participants engaged in imagined or actual initial interactions with either a straight man or a gay man. After the man’s sexual orientation was revealed, women (particularly attractive ones) who were paired with a gay man reported greater anticipated comfort, which was mediated by their reduced worry about his sexual intentions (Study 1). Further, once women discovered that they were interacting with a gay man, they displayed more intimate engagement behaviors with him (Study 2). These findings reveal how, and why, close relationships often form quickly between women and gay men.
Keywords: initial interactions, heterosexual women, homosexual men, sexual orientation, opposite-sex friendship, sexual attraction, open data, open materials
Tennet TSO spent almost a billion euros last year on emergency interventions to stabilize the electric grid due to the increasing number of solar and wind turbines in Germany
Kosten für Energiewende explodieren. Alex Reichmuth. Beisler Zeitung, Jan 01 2018. https://bazonline.ch/ausland/europa/Kosten-fuer-Energiewende-explodieren/story/13230493
Google Translation: German utility company Tennet TSO spent almost a billion euros last year on emergency interventions to stabilize the grid. That's what the company announced earlier this week. The costs were thus about half higher than in 2016 (660 million euros) and around forty percent higher than in 2015 (710 million). Tennet is responsible for the electricity supply in an area that extends from Schleswig-Holstein in the north to southern Bavaria and accounts for around forty percent of Germany's area. In particular, Tennet is responsible for important north-south routes.
The reason for the increase in emergency interventions is the increasing number of solar and wind turbines in Germany. The share of renewable energy increased from 29 to 33 percent of the electricity supply last year.
Google Translation: German utility company Tennet TSO spent almost a billion euros last year on emergency interventions to stabilize the grid. That's what the company announced earlier this week. The costs were thus about half higher than in 2016 (660 million euros) and around forty percent higher than in 2015 (710 million). Tennet is responsible for the electricity supply in an area that extends from Schleswig-Holstein in the north to southern Bavaria and accounts for around forty percent of Germany's area. In particular, Tennet is responsible for important north-south routes.
The reason for the increase in emergency interventions is the increasing number of solar and wind turbines in Germany. The share of renewable energy increased from 29 to 33 percent of the electricity supply last year.
Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence
The new genetics of intelligence. Robert Plomin & Sophie von Stumm. Nature Reviews Genetics, doi:10.1038/nrg.2017.104
Abstract: Intelligence — the ability to learn, reason and solve problems — is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.
Check also Sauce, B., & Matzel, L. D. (2017). The Paradox of Intelligence: Heritability and Malleability Coexist in Hidden Gene-Environment Interplay. Psychological Bulletin. Advance online publication. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/11/the-paradox-of-intelligence.html
Abstract: Intelligence — the ability to learn, reason and solve problems — is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.
Check also Sauce, B., & Matzel, L. D. (2017). The Paradox of Intelligence: Heritability and Malleability Coexist in Hidden Gene-Environment Interplay. Psychological Bulletin. Advance online publication. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/11/the-paradox-of-intelligence.html
We present positive correlations between speciesism and prejudicial attitudes such as racism, sexism, homophobia, along with ideological constructs associated with prejudice such as social dominance orientation, system justification, and right-wing authoritarianism
Caviola, Lucius, Jim A C Everett, and Nadira S Faber. 2018. “The Moral Standing of Animals: Towards a Psychology of Speciesism”. PsyArXiv. January 8. doi:10.1037/pspp0000182
Abstract: We introduce and investigate the philosophical concept of ‘speciesism’ — the assignment of different moral worth based on species membership — as a psychological construct. In five studies, using both general population samples online and student samples, we show that speciesism is a measurable, stable construct with high interpersonal differences, that goes along with a cluster of other forms of prejudice, and is able to predict real-world decision-making and behavior. In Study 1 we present the development and empirical validation of a theoretically driven Speciesism Scale, which captures individual differences in speciesist attitudes. In Study 2, we show high test-retest reliability of the scale over a period of four weeks, suggesting that speciesism is stable over time. In Study 3, we present positive correlations between speciesism and prejudicial attitudes such as racism, sexism, homophobia, along with ideological constructs associated with prejudice such as social dominance orientation, system justification, and right-wing authoritarianism. These results suggest that similar mechanisms might underlie both speciesism and other well-researched forms of prejudice. Finally, in Studies 4 and 5, we demonstrate that speciesism is able to predict prosociality towards animals (both in the context of charitable donations and time investment) and behavioral food choices above and beyond existing related constructs. Importantly, our studies show that people morally value individuals of certain species less than others even when beliefs about intelligence and sentience are accounted for. We conclude by discussing the implications of a psychological study of speciesism for the psychology of human-animal relationships.
Check also: Conway, L. G., Houck, S. C., Gornick, L. J. and Repke, M. A. (2017), Finding the Loch Ness Monster: Left-Wing Authoritarianism in the United States. Political Psychology. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/12/left-wing-authoritarianism-in-united.html
Abstract: We introduce and investigate the philosophical concept of ‘speciesism’ — the assignment of different moral worth based on species membership — as a psychological construct. In five studies, using both general population samples online and student samples, we show that speciesism is a measurable, stable construct with high interpersonal differences, that goes along with a cluster of other forms of prejudice, and is able to predict real-world decision-making and behavior. In Study 1 we present the development and empirical validation of a theoretically driven Speciesism Scale, which captures individual differences in speciesist attitudes. In Study 2, we show high test-retest reliability of the scale over a period of four weeks, suggesting that speciesism is stable over time. In Study 3, we present positive correlations between speciesism and prejudicial attitudes such as racism, sexism, homophobia, along with ideological constructs associated with prejudice such as social dominance orientation, system justification, and right-wing authoritarianism. These results suggest that similar mechanisms might underlie both speciesism and other well-researched forms of prejudice. Finally, in Studies 4 and 5, we demonstrate that speciesism is able to predict prosociality towards animals (both in the context of charitable donations and time investment) and behavioral food choices above and beyond existing related constructs. Importantly, our studies show that people morally value individuals of certain species less than others even when beliefs about intelligence and sentience are accounted for. We conclude by discussing the implications of a psychological study of speciesism for the psychology of human-animal relationships.
Check also: Conway, L. G., Houck, S. C., Gornick, L. J. and Repke, M. A. (2017), Finding the Loch Ness Monster: Left-Wing Authoritarianism in the United States. Political Psychology. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/12/left-wing-authoritarianism-in-united.html
Children who had a sibling were more likely to cheat than children without one; with a younger sibling were more likely to lie as the age difference increased; with a younger sibling were better able to maintain their lie
The relation between having siblings and children’s cheating and
lie-telling behaviors. Alison M. O'Connor, Angela D. Evans. Journal of
Experimental Child Psychology, Volume 168, April 2018, Pages 49–60.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2017.12.006
Highlights
• Time impact of having siblings on children’s dishonesty was examined.
• Children who had a sibling were more likely to cheat than children without a sibling.
• Children with a younger sibling were more likely to lie as the age difference increased.
• Children with a younger sibling were better able to maintain their lie.
Abstract: The current study investigated how having at least one child sibling influenced children’s dishonest behaviors. Furthermore, for those children with a sibling, we examined whether having a younger or older sibling and the age difference between siblings influenced deceptive acts. Children between 3 and 8 years of age (N = 130) completed the temptation resistance paradigm, where they played a guessing game and were asked not to peek at a toy in the experimenter’s absence. Children’s peeking behavior was used as a measure of cheating, and children’s responses when asked whether they had peeked were used as measures of lie-telling. Results demonstrate that siblings do indeed influence children’s deceptive behaviors. First, children with a sibling were significantly more likely to cheat compared with children without any siblings. Next, for those with a sibling, children with a larger age difference with their younger sibling(s) were significantly more likely to lie compared with children closer in age, and children with a younger sibling were significantly more likely to maintain their lie during follow-up questioning compared with children with an older sibling.
Keywords: Children; Siblings; Cheating; Lie-telling; Honesty; Deception
Highlights
• Time impact of having siblings on children’s dishonesty was examined.
• Children who had a sibling were more likely to cheat than children without a sibling.
• Children with a younger sibling were more likely to lie as the age difference increased.
• Children with a younger sibling were better able to maintain their lie.
Abstract: The current study investigated how having at least one child sibling influenced children’s dishonest behaviors. Furthermore, for those children with a sibling, we examined whether having a younger or older sibling and the age difference between siblings influenced deceptive acts. Children between 3 and 8 years of age (N = 130) completed the temptation resistance paradigm, where they played a guessing game and were asked not to peek at a toy in the experimenter’s absence. Children’s peeking behavior was used as a measure of cheating, and children’s responses when asked whether they had peeked were used as measures of lie-telling. Results demonstrate that siblings do indeed influence children’s deceptive behaviors. First, children with a sibling were significantly more likely to cheat compared with children without any siblings. Next, for those with a sibling, children with a larger age difference with their younger sibling(s) were significantly more likely to lie compared with children closer in age, and children with a younger sibling were significantly more likely to maintain their lie during follow-up questioning compared with children with an older sibling.
Keywords: Children; Siblings; Cheating; Lie-telling; Honesty; Deception
Fifty psychological and psychiatric terms to avoid: a list of inaccurate, misleading, misused, ambiguous, and logically confused words and phrases
Fifty psychological and psychiatric terms to avoid: a list of inaccurate, misleading, misused, ambiguous, and logically confused words and phrases. Scott O. Lilienfeld et al. Front Psychol. 2015; 6: 1100. (published Aug 3 2015), doi 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01100
Abstract: The goal of this article is to promote clear thinking and clear writing among students and teachers of psychological science by curbing terminological misinformation and confusion. To this end, we present a provisional list of 50 commonly used terms in psychology, psychiatry, and allied fields that should be avoided, or at most used sparingly and with explicit caveats. We provide corrective information for students, instructors, and researchers regarding these terms, which we organize for expository purposes into five categories: inaccurate or misleading terms, frequently misused terms, ambiguous terms, oxymorons, and pleonasms. For each term, we (a) explain why it is problematic, (b) delineate one or more examples of its misuse, and (c) when pertinent, offer recommendations for preferable terms. By being more judicious in their use of terminology, psychologists and psychiatrists can foster clearer thinking in their students and the field at large regarding mental phenomena.
Keywords: scientific thinking, misconceptions, misunderstandings, terminology, jingle and jangle fallacies
Abstract: The goal of this article is to promote clear thinking and clear writing among students and teachers of psychological science by curbing terminological misinformation and confusion. To this end, we present a provisional list of 50 commonly used terms in psychology, psychiatry, and allied fields that should be avoided, or at most used sparingly and with explicit caveats. We provide corrective information for students, instructors, and researchers regarding these terms, which we organize for expository purposes into five categories: inaccurate or misleading terms, frequently misused terms, ambiguous terms, oxymorons, and pleonasms. For each term, we (a) explain why it is problematic, (b) delineate one or more examples of its misuse, and (c) when pertinent, offer recommendations for preferable terms. By being more judicious in their use of terminology, psychologists and psychiatrists can foster clearer thinking in their students and the field at large regarding mental phenomena.
Keywords: scientific thinking, misconceptions, misunderstandings, terminology, jingle and jangle fallacies
We found that in countries with greater wealth and equality, better health care and education, and longer life expentancy are characterized by a higher lifetime prevalence of post traumatic stress disorder (PSTD)
Dückers, M. L.A. and Olff, M. (2017), Does the Vulnerability Paradox in PTSD Apply to Women and Men? An Exploratory Study. Journal of Traumatic Stress, 30: 200–204. doi:10.1002/jts.22173
Abstract: Recent research suggests that greater country vulnerability is associated with a decreased, rather than increased, risk of mental health problems. Because societal parameters may have gender-specific implications, our objective was to explore whether the “vulnerability paradox” equally applies to women and men. Lifetime posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence data for women and men were retrieved from 11 population studies (N = 57,031): conducted in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Lebanon, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States. We tested statistical models with vulnerability, gender, and their interaction as predictors. The average lifetime PTSD prevalence in women was at least twice as high as it was in men and the vulnerability paradox existed in the prevalence data for women and men (R2 = .70). We could not confirm the possibility that gender effects are modified by socioeconomic and cultural country characteristics. Issues of methodology, language, and cultural validity complicate international comparisons. Nevertheless, this international sample points at a parallel paradox: The vulnerability paradox was confirmed for both women and men. The absence of a significant interaction between gender and country vulnerability implies that possible explanations for the paradox at the country-level do not necessarily require gender-driven distinction.
Abstract: Recent research suggests that greater country vulnerability is associated with a decreased, rather than increased, risk of mental health problems. Because societal parameters may have gender-specific implications, our objective was to explore whether the “vulnerability paradox” equally applies to women and men. Lifetime posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence data for women and men were retrieved from 11 population studies (N = 57,031): conducted in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Lebanon, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States. We tested statistical models with vulnerability, gender, and their interaction as predictors. The average lifetime PTSD prevalence in women was at least twice as high as it was in men and the vulnerability paradox existed in the prevalence data for women and men (R2 = .70). We could not confirm the possibility that gender effects are modified by socioeconomic and cultural country characteristics. Issues of methodology, language, and cultural validity complicate international comparisons. Nevertheless, this international sample points at a parallel paradox: The vulnerability paradox was confirmed for both women and men. The absence of a significant interaction between gender and country vulnerability implies that possible explanations for the paradox at the country-level do not necessarily require gender-driven distinction.
Sunday, January 7, 2018
Monozygotic twins: Standard OLS method may over-estimate the relation between personality and income; neuroticism is related to lower permanent income; and a facet of extraversion (activity) is related to higher permanent income
Is personality related to permanent earnings? Evidence using a twin design. Terhi Maczulskij, Jutta Viinikainen. Journal of Economic Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.01.001
Highlights
• We study the relation between personality and permanent income using twin data.
• Twin desing allows us to control for shared genetic and family effects.
• Standard OLS method may over-estimate the relation between personality and income.
• Within-MZ estimates show that neuroticism is related to lower permanent income.
• A facet of extraversion (activity) is related to higher permanent income.
Abstract: Using twin survey combined with register-based panel data on labor market outcomes, the authors examine the association between personality characteristics and long-term earnings among prime working-age individuals. The long-term earnings were measured over the 1990-2008 period. The sample contains 4,642 twin pairs, of which 53% are females. In contrast to previous studies, this paper uses the within-twin dimension of the data to control for shared family background and confounding genetic factors. The results suggest that unobserved genetic differences may introduce omitted variable bias in standard ordinary least square results. After controlling for shared environment and genetic background, the authors find that a facet of extraversion (activity) is related to higher (β = 0.046), and neuroticism is related to lower (β = -0.060) permanent earnings in the labor market. The lower earnings of more neurotic individuals are likely explained by the weaker attachment in the labor market.
Keywords: personality; earnings; labor market outcomes; unobserved heterogeneity; twin studies
Highlights
• We study the relation between personality and permanent income using twin data.
• Twin desing allows us to control for shared genetic and family effects.
• Standard OLS method may over-estimate the relation between personality and income.
• Within-MZ estimates show that neuroticism is related to lower permanent income.
• A facet of extraversion (activity) is related to higher permanent income.
Abstract: Using twin survey combined with register-based panel data on labor market outcomes, the authors examine the association between personality characteristics and long-term earnings among prime working-age individuals. The long-term earnings were measured over the 1990-2008 period. The sample contains 4,642 twin pairs, of which 53% are females. In contrast to previous studies, this paper uses the within-twin dimension of the data to control for shared family background and confounding genetic factors. The results suggest that unobserved genetic differences may introduce omitted variable bias in standard ordinary least square results. After controlling for shared environment and genetic background, the authors find that a facet of extraversion (activity) is related to higher (β = 0.046), and neuroticism is related to lower (β = -0.060) permanent earnings in the labor market. The lower earnings of more neurotic individuals are likely explained by the weaker attachment in the labor market.
Keywords: personality; earnings; labor market outcomes; unobserved heterogeneity; twin studies
Soccer penalty kicking: Professionals do not perform worse when they experience unfair advantages
Coping with advantageous inequity–Field evidence from professional penalty kicking. Mario Lackner, Hendrik Sonnabend. Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Department of Economics Working Paper No. 1721, December 2017, http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2017/wp1721.pdf
Abstract: This contribution examines the effect of advantageous inequity on performance using data from top-level penalty kicking in soccer. Results indicate that, on average, professionals do not perform worse when they experience unfair advantages. However, we find a negative effect of advantageous inequity in situations where success is less important.
JEL-Code: C93, D91, Z29
Keywords: advantageous inequity; guilt; self-serving bias; fairness; performance
Abstract: This contribution examines the effect of advantageous inequity on performance using data from top-level penalty kicking in soccer. Results indicate that, on average, professionals do not perform worse when they experience unfair advantages. However, we find a negative effect of advantageous inequity in situations where success is less important.
JEL-Code: C93, D91, Z29
Keywords: advantageous inequity; guilt; self-serving bias; fairness; performance
The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism: The wage effect, drawing at least some ex-offenders into the legal labor market, dominates any reduced employment in this population due to the minimum wage
The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism. Amanda Y. Agan and Michael D. Makowsky (January 5, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3097203
Abstract: For recently released prisoners, the minimum wage and the availability of state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITCs) can influence both their ability to find employment and their potential legal wages relative to illegal sources of income, in turn affecting the probability they return to prison. Using administrative prison release records from nearly six million offenders released between 2000 and 2014, we use a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the effect of over two hundred state and federal minimum wage increases, as well as 21 state EITC programs, on recidivism. We find that the average minimum wage increase of 8% reduces the probability that men and women return to prison within 1 year by 2%. This implies that on average the wage effect, drawing at least some ex-offenders into the legal labor market, dominates any reduced employment in this population due to the minimum wage. These reductions in re-convictions are observed for the potentially revenue generating crime categories of property and drug crimes; prison reentry for violent crimes are unchanged, supporting our framing that minimum wages affect crime that serves as a source of income. The availability of state EITCs also reduces recidivism, but only for women. Given that state EITCs are predominantly available to custodial parents of minor children, this asymmetry is not surprising. Framed within a simple model where earnings from criminal endeavors serve as a reservation wage for ex-offenders, our results suggest that the wages of crime are on average higher than comparable opportunities for low-skilled labor in the legal labor market.
Keywords: criminal recidivism, minimum wage, earned income tax credit
Abstract: For recently released prisoners, the minimum wage and the availability of state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITCs) can influence both their ability to find employment and their potential legal wages relative to illegal sources of income, in turn affecting the probability they return to prison. Using administrative prison release records from nearly six million offenders released between 2000 and 2014, we use a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the effect of over two hundred state and federal minimum wage increases, as well as 21 state EITC programs, on recidivism. We find that the average minimum wage increase of 8% reduces the probability that men and women return to prison within 1 year by 2%. This implies that on average the wage effect, drawing at least some ex-offenders into the legal labor market, dominates any reduced employment in this population due to the minimum wage. These reductions in re-convictions are observed for the potentially revenue generating crime categories of property and drug crimes; prison reentry for violent crimes are unchanged, supporting our framing that minimum wages affect crime that serves as a source of income. The availability of state EITCs also reduces recidivism, but only for women. Given that state EITCs are predominantly available to custodial parents of minor children, this asymmetry is not surprising. Framed within a simple model where earnings from criminal endeavors serve as a reservation wage for ex-offenders, our results suggest that the wages of crime are on average higher than comparable opportunities for low-skilled labor in the legal labor market.
Keywords: criminal recidivism, minimum wage, earned income tax credit
Saturday, January 6, 2018
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, like the news media. We provide experimental evidence that many people neglect the resulting double-counting problem in the updating process, so beliefs are too sensitive to the ubiquitous "telling and re-telling of stories"
Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation. Benjamin Enke, Florian Zimmermann. The Review of Economic Studies, rdx081, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx081
Abstract: Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper provides experimental evidence that many people neglect the resulting double-counting problem in the updating process. In consequence, beliefs are too sensitive to the ubiquitous "telling and re-telling of stories" and exhibit excessive swings. We identify substantial and systematic heterogeneity in the presence of the bias and investigate the underlying mechanisms. The evidence points to the paramount importance of complexity in combination with people's problems in identifying and thinking through the correlation. Even though most participants in principle have the computational skills that are necessary to develop rational beliefs, many approach the problem in a wrong way when the environment is moderately complex. Thus, experimentally nudging people's focus towards the correlation and the underlying independent signals has large effects on beliefs.
Abstract: Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper provides experimental evidence that many people neglect the resulting double-counting problem in the updating process. In consequence, beliefs are too sensitive to the ubiquitous "telling and re-telling of stories" and exhibit excessive swings. We identify substantial and systematic heterogeneity in the presence of the bias and investigate the underlying mechanisms. The evidence points to the paramount importance of complexity in combination with people's problems in identifying and thinking through the correlation. Even though most participants in principle have the computational skills that are necessary to develop rational beliefs, many approach the problem in a wrong way when the environment is moderately complex. Thus, experimentally nudging people's focus towards the correlation and the underlying independent signals has large effects on beliefs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)