Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters

Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters. Peter Enns, Julius Lagodny and Jonathon Schuldt. Statistics, Politics and Policy, https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2017-0003

Abstract: Following Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 US presidential election, the American Association for Public Opinion Research announced that “the polls clearly got it wrong” and noted that talk of a “crisis in polling” was already emerging. Although the national polls ended up being accurate, surveys just weeks before the election substantially over-stated Clinton’s lead and state polls showed systematic bias in favor of Clinton. Different explanations have been offered for these results, including non-response bias and late deciders. We argue, however, that these explanations cannot fully account for Trump’s underperformance in October surveys. Utilizing data from two national polls that we conducted in October of 2016 (n>2100 total) as well as 14 state-level polls from October, we find consistent evidence for the existence of “hidden” Trump supporters who were included in the surveys but did not openly express their intention to vote for Trump. Most notably, when we account for these hidden Trump supporters in our October survey data, both national and state-level analyses foreshadow Trump’s Election Day support. These results suggest that late-breaking campaign events may have had less influence than previously thought and the findings hold important implications for how scholars, media, and campaigns analyze future election surveys.

Check also: Social Desirability Bias and Polling Errors in the 2016 Presidential Election. Andy Brownback and Aaron Novotny. University of Arkansas Working Paper, July 2017, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/social-desirability-bias-and-polling.html

The Foreign Investor Bias and Its Linguistic Origins

The Foreign Investor Bias and Its Linguistic Origins. Russell Lundholm, Nafis Rahman & Rafael Rogo. Management Science, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2812

Abstract: We study how misaligned language between the investor and the firm contributes to the underweighting of foreign securities in an international portfolio. In particular, we document a significant U.S. institutional investor bias against firms located in Quebec relative to firms located in the rest of Canada (ROC). The differential bias is surprising given that (i) Quebec and the other Canadian provinces share the same nationality, federal law, stock exchange, and accounting standards; (ii) their regulatory filings are prepared in English and French; and (iii) U.S. institutional investors are sophisticated and located close to Quebec and the ROC. We also examine Quebec firms with different levels of French versus English online presences as well as those with CEOs who have U.S. work experience or board members or financial analysts who reside in the United States. We find that each factor affects the relative underweighting of investment in Quebec versus the ROC. Finally, we contrast the holdings of institutional investors located in the United Kingdom and France to bolster our conclusion that incongruent languages contribute to the underweighting of Quebec firms relative to firms in the ROC.

Keywords: home bias; investor bias; language; Quebec

My comment: In our search of homogeneity we can go so far as to avoid some business opportunities if we feel the other part will be too foreign for our tastes.

Altruists lie like the others unless lying hurts another party

Do the Altruists Lie Less? Rudolf Kerschbamer, Daniel Neururer, and Alexander Gruber. August 28, 2017. https://ideas.repec.org/p/inn/wpaper/2017-17.html

Abstract: Much is known about heterogeneity in social preferences and about heterogeneity in lying aversion -- but little is known about the relation between the two at the individual level. Are the altruists simply upright persons who do not only care about the well-being of others but also about honesty? And are the selfish those who lie whenever lying maximizes their material payoff? This paper addresses those questions in experiments that first elicit subjects.social preferences and then let them make decisions in an environment where lying increases the own material payo¤ and has either consequences for the payoffs of others or no consequences for others. We find that altruists lie less when lying hurts another party but we do not find any evidence in support of the hypothesis that altruists are more (or less) averse to lying than others in environments where lying has no effects on the payoffs of others

Mnemonic transmission, social contagion, and emergence of collective memory: Influence of emotional valence, group structure, and information distribution

Choi, H.-Y., Kensinger, E. A., & Rajaram, S. (2017). Mnemonic transmission, social contagion, and emergence of collective memory: Influence of emotional valence, group structure, and information distribution. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 146(9), 1247-1265.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xge0000327

Abstract: Social transmission of memory and its consequence on collective memory have generated enduring interdisciplinary interest because of their widespread significance in interpersonal, sociocultural, and political arenas. We tested the influence of 3 key factors—emotional salience of information, group structure, and information distribution—on mnemonic transmission, social contagion, and collective memory. Participants individually studied emotionally salient (negative or positive) and nonemotional (neutral) picture–word pairs that were completely shared, partially shared, or unshared within participant triads, and then completed 3 consecutive recalls in 1 of 3 conditions: individual–individual–individual (control), collaborative–collaborative (identical group; insular structure)–individual, and collaborative–collaborative (reconfigured group; diverse structure)–individual. Collaboration enhanced negative memories especially in insular group structure and especially for shared information, and promoted collective forgetting of positive memories. Diverse group structure reduced this negativity effect. Unequally distributed information led to social contagion that creates false memories; diverse structure propagated a greater variety of false memories whereas insular structure promoted confidence in false recognition and false collective memory. A simultaneous assessment of network structure, information distribution, and emotional valence breaks new ground to specify how network structure shapes the spread of negative memories and false memories, and the emergence of collective memory.

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Check: Social contagion of memory. HENRY L. ROEDIGER III, MICHELLE L. MEADE, and ERIK T. BERGMAN. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2001, 8 (2), 365-371, https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03196174

Abstract: We report a new paradigm for studying false memories implanted by social influence, a process we call the social contagion of memory. A subject and confederate together saw six common household scenes (e.g., a kitchen) containing many objects, for either 15 or 60 sec. During a collaborative recall test, the 2 subjects each recalled six items from the scenes, but the confederate occasionally made mistakes by reporting items not from the scene. Some intrusions were highly consistent with the scene schema (e.g., a toaster) while others were less so (e.g., oven mitts). After a brief delay, the individual subject tried to recall as many items as possible from the six scenes. Recall of the erroneous items suggested by the confederate was greater than in a control condition (with no suggestion). Further, this social contagion effect was greater when the scenes were presented for less time (15 sec) and when the intruded item was more schema consistent (e.g., the toaster). As with other forms of social influence, false memories are contagious; one person’s memory can be infected by another person’s errors.

Tattooed targets, especially women, were rated as stronger and more independent, but more negatively

Tattoo or taboo? Tattoo stigma and negative attitudes toward tattooed individuals. Kristin A Broussard & Helen C Harton. The Journal of Social Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2017.1373622

ABSTRACT: Tattoos are common in the United States; however, tattooed persons may be perceived as having more negative character and as more deviant than people without tattoos. College students (Study 1) and community members (Study 2) viewed images of men and women with tattoos or the same images with the tattoos digitally removed and rated the targets’ characteristics. Half of the participants viewed a target with a tattoo, and half viewed that target without it, allowing for both within- (participants all rated one male and one female target with a tattoo and another without) and between-participants (participants rated either the tattooed or non-tattooed version of a single target) comparisons. Tattooed targets, especially women, were rated as stronger and more independent, but more negatively on other character attributes than the same target images with the tattoos removed. The stigma associated with tattoos appears to still exist, despite the prevalence of tattoos in modern culture.

KEYWORDS: Tattoo, stigma, gender, stereotypes

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Tattooed people also judge negatively other tattooed individuals, like the non-tattooed do.

How many laypeople holding a popular opinion are needed to counter an expert opinion?

How many laypeople holding a popular opinion are needed to counter an expert opinion? Jos Hornikx, Adam J. L. Harris & Jordy Boekema. Thinking & Reasoning, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2017.1378721

Abstract: In everyday situations, people regularly receive information from large groups of (lay) people and from single experts. Although lay opinions and expert opinions have been studied extensively in isolation, the present study examined the relationship between the two by asking how many laypeople are needed to counter an expert opinion. A Bayesian formalisation allowed the prescription of this quantity. Participants were subsequently asked to assess how many laypeople are needed in different situations. The results demonstrate that people are sensitive to the relevant factors identified for determining how many lay opinions are required to counteract a single expert opinion. People's assessments were fairly good in line with Bayesian predictions.

KEYWORDS: Expert opinion, popular opinion, Bayesian argumentation

Invasive interventions are associated with substantially large placebo effects

Route of Placebo Administration: Robust Placebo Effects in Laboratory and Clinical Settings. Tao Liu. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neubiorev.2017.09.018

Highlights
•    Pivotal role of placebo administration in subsequent placebo responses.
•    Robust placebo analgesia in the context of anticipating an upcoming pain.
•    Enhanced placebo effects associated with invasive procedures

Abstract: Recent advances in laboratory and clinical research have greatly enhanced our understanding of placebo effects. However, little progress has been made in translational research that can well integrate these findings. This article examines pivotal role of placebo administration in subsequent placebo responses, providing a unified framework that accounts for robust placebo effects in both laboratory and clinical settings.

Keywords: placebo effects; placebo administration; route of administration; pain; pain anticipation; learning; conditioning; verbal suggestion; belief; reward expectation; appetitive motivation; emotion; anxiety; brain mechanisms; descending pain modulation; RCTs; invasive placebo; sham invasive procedure; acupuncture; clinical practice

Depression is not due to interaction of genetics and childhood trauma -- study of 5,765 subjects from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium

Does childhood trauma moderate polygenic risk for depression? A meta-analysis of 5,765 subjects from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Wouter J. Peyrot, et al. Biological Psychiatry, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2017.09.009

Abstract

Background: The heterogeneity of genetic effects on Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) may be partly attributable to moderation of genetic effects by environment, such as exposure to childhood trauma (CT). Indeed, previous findings in two independent cohorts showed evidence for interaction between polygenic risk scores (PRS) and CT, albeit in opposing directions. This study aims to meta-analyze MDD-PRSxCT interaction results across these two and other cohorts, while applying more accurate PRS based on a larger discovery sample.

Methods and Materials: Data were combined from 3,024 MDD cases and 2,741 controls from nine cohorts contributing to the MDD Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. MDD-PRS were based on a discovery sample of approximately 110,000 independent individuals. CT was assessed as exposure to sexual or physical abuse during childhood. In a subset of 1957 cases and 2002 controls, a more detailed 5-domain measure additionally included emotional abuse, physical neglect and emotional neglect.

Results: MDD was associated with the MDD-PRS (OR=1.24, p=3.6e-5, R2=1.18%) and with CT (OR=2.63, p=3.5e-18 and OR=2.62, p=1.4e-5 for the 2- and 5-domain measures respectively). No interaction was found between MDD-PRS and the 2-domain and 5-domain CT measure (OR=1.00, p=0.89 and OR=1.05, p=0.66).

Conclusions: No meta-analytic evidence for interaction between MDD-PRS and CT was found. This suggests that the previously reported interaction effects, although both statistically significant, can best be interpreted as chance findings. Further research is required, but this study suggests that the genetic heterogeneity of MDD is not attributable to genome-wide moderation of genetic effects by CT.

The Ugly Truth About Ourselves and Our Robot Creations: The Problem of Bias and Social Inequity

As a preventive measure against possible complains in the future about bias, I share this:

The Ugly Truth About Ourselves and Our Robot Creations: The Problem of Bias and Social Inequity. Ayanna Howard and Jason Borenstein. Science and Engineering Ethics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11948-017-9975-2

Abstract: Recently, there has been an upsurge of attention focused on bias and its impact on specialized artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Allegations of racism and sexism have permeated the conversation as stories surface about search engines delivering job postings for well-paying technical jobs to men and not women, or providing arrest mugshots when keywords such as “black teenagers” are entered. Learning algorithms are evolving; they are often created from parsing through large datasets of online information while having truth labels bestowed on them by crowd-sourced masses. These specialized AI algorithms have been liberated from the minds of researchers and startups, and released onto the public. Yet intelligent though they may be, these algorithms maintain some of the same biases that permeate society. They find patterns within datasets that reflect implicit biases and, in so doing, emphasize and reinforce these biases as global truth. This paper describes specific examples of how bias has infused itself into current AI and robotic systems, and how it may affect the future design of such systems. More specifically, we draw attention to how bias may affect the functioning of (1) a robot peacekeeper, (2) a self-driving car, and (3) a medical robot. We conclude with an overview of measures that could be taken to mitigate or halt bias from permeating robotic technology.

Revenue fell under receiverships: Can Europe Run Greece? Lessons from U.S. Fiscal Receiverships in Latin America, 1904-3

Maurer, Noel and Arroyo Abad, Leticia, Can Europe Run Greece? Lessons from U.S. Fiscal Receiverships in Latin America, 1904-31 (June 13, 2017). George Washington University Working Paper, June 2017. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3026330

Abstract: In 2012 and again in 2015, the German government proposed sending German administrators to manage Greece’s tax and privatization authorities. The idea was that shared governance would reduce corruption and root out inefficient practices. (In 2017 the Boston Globe proposed a similar arrangement for Haiti.) We test a version of shared governance using eight U.S. interventions between 1904 and 1931, under which American officials took over management of Latin American fiscal institutions. We develop a stylized model in which better monitoring by incorruptible managers does not lead to higher government revenues. Using a new panel of data on fiscal revenues and the volume and terms of trade, we find that revenue fell under receiverships. Our results hold under instrumental variables estimation and with counterfactual specifications using synthetic controls.

Chimps do not “do what the others do” merely to fit in, nor suffer for attacks against non-group members

Do Chimpanzees Conform to Social Norms? Laura Schlingloff, and Richard Moore. In The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Animal Minds, Jul 2017. ISBN: 978-1138822887. DOI 10.4324/9781315742250.ch36

Many studies on social influences on human behavior – including the famous Asch conformity experiments (1951) – show that we change our behavior to fit in with the crowd. [...]

To investigate whether chimpanzees copy for affiliative reasons, van Leeuwen and colleagues tested whether they abandon individually learned information in favor of a majority strategy. They found that chimpanzees do not change a first-learned strategy to conform to a majority, although they will do so to gain higher rewards (van Leeuwen et al. 2013; see also Hrubesch, Preuschoft and van Schaik 2009; and van Leeuwen and Haun 2013). This suggests that chimpanzees are not motivated to “do what the others do” merely to fit in (Leeuwen and Haun 2013).

[...] In human communities, not only do individuals prefer to conform, they also uphold the principles of their group – for example, by punishing those who do not conform. In humans, third-party enforcement of arbitrary conventional norms emerges in children as young as three years (Schmidt, Rakoczy and Tomasello 2012). Humans are also willing to suffer costs in order to sanction norm violations, even if they themselves were not harmed by the violation (Fehr and Fischbacher 2004). Currently, there is no evidence that chimpanzees enforce social norms. While they punish those who harm them directly (Jensen, Call and Tomasello 2007), this is consistent with them punishing out of revenge, and not because they think group norms should be upheld. They do not seem to engage in ‘third-party punishment’. For example, Riedl and colleagues (2012) found that chimpanzees would not retaliate against a conspecific when a third party’s food was stolen.

[...]

Apes looked longer at videos of unfamiliar individuals committing infanticidal attacks than at control videos (e.g., of chimpanzees behaving aggressively towards adults). However – with the exception of one individual who performed threat displays towards the video screen – watching infanticide did not elicit negative emotional arousal. The authors interpret the findings as showing that while chimpanzees may recognize norm violations, these violations elicit strong emotional responses only when they affect group members.

Genomic Imprinting Is Implicated in the Psychology of Music

Genomic Imprinting Is Implicated in the Psychology of Music. Samuel Mehr et al. Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617711456

Abstract: Why do people sing to babies? Human infants are relatively altricial and need their parents’ attention to survive. Infant-directed song may constitute a signal of that attention. In Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS), a rare disorder of genomic imprinting, genes from chromosome 15q11–q13 that are typically paternally expressed are unexpressed, which results in exaggeration of traits that reduce offspring’s investment demands on the mother. PWS may thus be associated with a distinctive musical phenotype. We report unusual responses to music in people with PWS. Subjects with PWS (N = 39) moved more during music listening, exhibited greater reductions in heart rate in response to music listening, and displayed a specific deficit in pitch-discrimination ability relative to typically developing adults and children (N = 589). Paternally expressed genes from 15q11–q13, which are unexpressed in PWS, may thus increase demands for music and enhance perceptual sensitivity to music. These results implicate genomic imprinting in the psychology of music, informing theories of music’s evolutionary history.

LGB respondents are more liberal than heterosexuals on 99 percent of 199 attitudinal items

Schnabel, Landon. 2017. “Sexual Orientation and Social Attitudes”. SocArXiv. August 23. www.osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/73xsz

Abstract: Gender, race, and class strongly predict social attitudes and are at the core of social scientific theory and empirical analysis. Sexuality (i.e., same-sex behavior or LGB identity), however, is not as central a factor by which we conceptualize and systematize society. Using the General Social Survey, this study examines the effect of sexuality, gender, race, and education on 199 attitudinal items. Sexuality consistently and substantially predicts a broad range of attitudes. Measured by partnering behavior, sexuality significantly predicts attitudes on 137 items. On all 137 of these items, LGB respondents are more liberal than heterosexuals. Irrespective of significance, LGB respondents are more liberal than heterosexuals on 99 percent of 199 total items. These patterns are consistent with the underdog principle of marginalized identity and progressive values. Sexuality predicts attitudes at least as consistently as gender, race, and education. I argue that future work should pay more attention to sexuality as a core factor in social scientific theory and empirical analysis.

Introverts emerge less as leaders because they engage in higher levels of forecasted negative affect

The failure of introverts to emerge as leaders: The role of forecasted affect. Andrew Spark, Timothy Stansmore, and Peter O'Connor. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 121, January 15 2018, Pages 84–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2017.09.026

Highlights
•    Introverts are less likely to emerge as leaders compared to extraverts.
•    Forecasted affect is proposed to mediate this relationship.
•    Forecasted positive affect has no mediation effect.
•
    Forecasted negative affect fully mediates the relationship.

Abstract: Introverts are less likely to emerge as leaders than extraverts, however the existing literature provides little explanation as to why. To investigate the potential cause of this trait-based difference in emergent leadership, we measured trait extraversion in a sample of 184 business students and studied their leadership-related behavior in an unstructured group task. We drew from a model of forecasted affect to hypothesize that introverts would be less likely to emerge as leaders based on their belief that engaging in the necessary extraverted behavior would be unpleasant/unenjoyable (i.e. they would forecast higher levels of negative affect compared to extraverts). Consistent with this, we found that introverts were less likely to emerge as leaders, and that forecasted negative affect fully accounted for the relationship between extraversion and peer-rated emergent leadership. We therefore argue that introverts fail to emerge as leaders as often as extraverts because they engage in higher levels of forecasted negative affect and that these forecasts impede their emergent leadership potential.

Keywords: Extraversion; Introversion; Forecasted affect; Emergent leadership

Disgust and Deontology: Trait Sensitivity to Contamination Promotes a Preference for Order, Hierarchy, and Rule-Based Moral Judgment

Disgust and Deontology: Trait Sensitivity to Contamination Promotes a Preference for Order, Hierarchy, and Rule-Based Moral Judgment. Jeffrey S. Robinson, Xiaowen Xu, and Jason E. Plaks. Social Psychological and Personality Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617732609

Abstract: Models of moral judgment have linked generalized emotionality with deontological moral judgment. The evidence, however, is mixed. Other research has linked the specific emotion of disgust with generalized moral condemnation. Here too, the evidence is mixed. We suggest that a synthesis of these two literatures points to one specific emotion (disgust) that reliably predicts one specific type of moral judgment (deontological). In all three studies, we found that trait disgust sensitivity predicted more extreme deontological judgment. In Study 3, with deontological endorsement and consequentialist endorsement operationalized as independent constructs, we found that disgust was positively associated with deontological endorsement but was unrelated to consequentialist endorsement. Across studies, the disgust–deontology link was mediated by individual difference variables related to preference for order (right-wing authoritarianism and intolerance for ambiguity). These data suggest a more precise model of emotion and moral judgment that identifies specific emotions, specific types of moral judgment, and specific motivational pathways.