Wearables and User Interface Design: Impacts on Belief in Free Will. D. A. Baker. In: International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction HCI 2017 – Posters' Extended Abstracts pp 210-217, Conference paper. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-58750-9_30
Abstract: This research investigates the social implications of sensor driven self-quantification technologies designed to direct user behaviors. These self-sensoring prescriptive applications (SSPA’s), often referred to as “wearables,” have a strong presence in healthcare as a means to monitor and improve health, modify behavior, and reduce medical costs. However, the commercial sector is quickly adopting SSPA’s to monitor and/or modify consumer behaviors as well [1, 2, 3]. Interestingly, the direct impact biosensor data have on user decision making, attitude formation, and behavior has not been well researched. SSPA’s offer an opportunity for users to monitor the “self” in terms of quantitative, objective, biological terms that may be beyond the user’s control. Research suggests some states of the body (e.g. chronic pain, hunger) can affect underlying beliefs in free will (BFW), finding that the less control a person has over those physical states, the weaker their BFW [4]. It is not known, however, whether reminders about physical states of the body, such as heart rate monitors used during exercise, may also serve to reduce BFW. This is an important gap in knowledge when considering that reduced BFW can have numerous negative impacts on individual behavior [5, 6, 7]. This preliminary work examined the impact of such technologies on underlying BFW. Participants who monitored their heart rate during a short walk using a wearable heart rate and activity tracker had lower BFW than participants who merely look at the device’s various tracking features and participants in the control condition.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Saturday, October 21, 2017
Women enjoy talking more than men, enjoyment mediated by life history strategy
Individual differences in talking enjoyment: The roles of life history strategy and mate value. Shelia M. Kennison et al. Cogent Psychology, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23311908.2017.1395310
Abstract: The present research explored the possibility that individual differences in talking enjoyment may play a role in human reproduction, such as mate advertising in humans. Prior research on talking has tended to focus on sex differences in the amount of talking. We present a new self-report measure to assess individual differences in talking enjoyment and explore its relationships with self-perceived mate value and life history strategy, which we measured using Figueredo et al.’s (2006) Mini-K. In Study 1, we assessed talking enjoyment with an 11-item talking enjoyment questionnaire (TEQ) and found that a) women’s average talking enjoyment and Mini-K ratings were significantly higher than men’s; b) talking enjoyment was predicted by life history strategy as measured by and self-rated mate value; and c) the relationship between sex and talking enjoyment was mediated by life history strategy. In Study 2, we replicated the results of Study 1 with a revised 8-item talking enjoyment questionnaire after confirming its test-retest reliability. The results provide new insights into individual differences in talking enjoyment. Directions for future research on the relationship talking behavior and mate selection in humans are discussed.
Keywords: talking, life history strategy, mate value, sex differences
---
We also explored the possibility that individual differences in talking behavior would be related to individuals’ life history strategy, which has been used to describe differences in individuals’ reproductive behaviors. Life history strategy is a core concept within life history theory (MacArthur & Wilson, 1967) in which different species or different individuals within species can be described as having a fast life history (i.e., r type), having shorter lives, shorter periods of development, higher numbers of offspring with higher mortality rates, and usually devoting time and resources into current versus future reproductive activities or a slow life history (i.e., K type), having longer lives, longer periods of development, seeking long-term versus short-term mates, and producing fewer, but potentially more robust offspring.
Descriptions of the life history strategy in humans have noted that individuals vary in terms of environmental stability and resources (Chisholm, 1993; Roff, 2002; Trivers, 1972), resulting in some individuals having a faster life history (i.e., less stability and fewer resources) and others having a slower life history (i.e., more stability and more resources). Figueredo, Vásquez, Brumbach, and Schneider (2004) suggest that people with a slower life history strategy delay mating and invest effort, time, and resources into social mobility, which improves the odds of long-term survival for both the individual and their future children. We reasoned that individuals with longer life history strategies may enjoy talking more because talking may promote the formation of social bonds both in and outside of the family (Bluck & Alea, 2009).
[...]
Other research has found that there is a relationship between life history strategy and self-perceived mate value (Dillon, Adair, Wang, & Johnson, 2013). Dillon et al. (2013) recruited heterosexual, monogamous couples and assessed their life history strategies. Each individual in the couple provided ratings of their own and their partner’s mate value using both the mate value inventory (Fisher, Cox, Bennett & Gavric, 2008) and a task that involving rating physical attractiveness. The results showed that individuals with slower life history strategy rated themselves and their partners higher in mate value than others. Attractiveness ratings were also higher for individuals with a slower life history strategy.
[...]
Our results from both studies are consistent with Figueredo et al.’s (2004) proposal that those with a slower life history strategy invest in activities related to social mobility, which would typically involve talking as a means of forming new social relationships. Talking to others is likely to be an important way for individuals not only to meet a greater number of potential mates, but also be a way to gain social status. Taken together the two findings support suggestions from prior research that language may be used in mate advertising (Redhead & Dunbar, 2013; Gersick & Kurzban, 2014; Miller, 1997, 1998; 1999). The results are also compatible with Rosenberg and Tunney (2008)’s view that what people say, specifically the choice of vocabulary, may reflect the intelligence of the speaker and function as a fitness cue, which can be used for mate selection.
We do not believe that the present results should be interpreted as indicating that people are always consciously aware that their talking behavior functions to advertise their value as a prospective mate. In some cases, individuals may purposely engage in overt demonstrations of mate advertising (i.e., flirting); however, it may be the case that the general tendency to be talkative serves the individuals’ reproductive activities without awareness on the part of the individual.
Check also: Gossip as an Intrasexual Competition Strategy: Sex Differences in Gossip Frequency, Content, and Attitudes. Adam C. Davis. Evolutionary Psychological Science, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/gossip-as-intrasexual-competition.html
And: What Shall We Talk about in Farsi? Content of Everyday Conversations in Iran. Mahdi Dahmardeh, R. I. M. Dunbar. Human Nature, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/content-of-everyday-conversations-in.html. Pay attention to the table there.
Abstract: The present research explored the possibility that individual differences in talking enjoyment may play a role in human reproduction, such as mate advertising in humans. Prior research on talking has tended to focus on sex differences in the amount of talking. We present a new self-report measure to assess individual differences in talking enjoyment and explore its relationships with self-perceived mate value and life history strategy, which we measured using Figueredo et al.’s (2006) Mini-K. In Study 1, we assessed talking enjoyment with an 11-item talking enjoyment questionnaire (TEQ) and found that a) women’s average talking enjoyment and Mini-K ratings were significantly higher than men’s; b) talking enjoyment was predicted by life history strategy as measured by and self-rated mate value; and c) the relationship between sex and talking enjoyment was mediated by life history strategy. In Study 2, we replicated the results of Study 1 with a revised 8-item talking enjoyment questionnaire after confirming its test-retest reliability. The results provide new insights into individual differences in talking enjoyment. Directions for future research on the relationship talking behavior and mate selection in humans are discussed.
Keywords: talking, life history strategy, mate value, sex differences
---
We also explored the possibility that individual differences in talking behavior would be related to individuals’ life history strategy, which has been used to describe differences in individuals’ reproductive behaviors. Life history strategy is a core concept within life history theory (MacArthur & Wilson, 1967) in which different species or different individuals within species can be described as having a fast life history (i.e., r type), having shorter lives, shorter periods of development, higher numbers of offspring with higher mortality rates, and usually devoting time and resources into current versus future reproductive activities or a slow life history (i.e., K type), having longer lives, longer periods of development, seeking long-term versus short-term mates, and producing fewer, but potentially more robust offspring.
Descriptions of the life history strategy in humans have noted that individuals vary in terms of environmental stability and resources (Chisholm, 1993; Roff, 2002; Trivers, 1972), resulting in some individuals having a faster life history (i.e., less stability and fewer resources) and others having a slower life history (i.e., more stability and more resources). Figueredo, Vásquez, Brumbach, and Schneider (2004) suggest that people with a slower life history strategy delay mating and invest effort, time, and resources into social mobility, which improves the odds of long-term survival for both the individual and their future children. We reasoned that individuals with longer life history strategies may enjoy talking more because talking may promote the formation of social bonds both in and outside of the family (Bluck & Alea, 2009).
[...]
Other research has found that there is a relationship between life history strategy and self-perceived mate value (Dillon, Adair, Wang, & Johnson, 2013). Dillon et al. (2013) recruited heterosexual, monogamous couples and assessed their life history strategies. Each individual in the couple provided ratings of their own and their partner’s mate value using both the mate value inventory (Fisher, Cox, Bennett & Gavric, 2008) and a task that involving rating physical attractiveness. The results showed that individuals with slower life history strategy rated themselves and their partners higher in mate value than others. Attractiveness ratings were also higher for individuals with a slower life history strategy.
[...]
Our results from both studies are consistent with Figueredo et al.’s (2004) proposal that those with a slower life history strategy invest in activities related to social mobility, which would typically involve talking as a means of forming new social relationships. Talking to others is likely to be an important way for individuals not only to meet a greater number of potential mates, but also be a way to gain social status. Taken together the two findings support suggestions from prior research that language may be used in mate advertising (Redhead & Dunbar, 2013; Gersick & Kurzban, 2014; Miller, 1997, 1998; 1999). The results are also compatible with Rosenberg and Tunney (2008)’s view that what people say, specifically the choice of vocabulary, may reflect the intelligence of the speaker and function as a fitness cue, which can be used for mate selection.
We do not believe that the present results should be interpreted as indicating that people are always consciously aware that their talking behavior functions to advertise their value as a prospective mate. In some cases, individuals may purposely engage in overt demonstrations of mate advertising (i.e., flirting); however, it may be the case that the general tendency to be talkative serves the individuals’ reproductive activities without awareness on the part of the individual.
Check also: Gossip as an Intrasexual Competition Strategy: Sex Differences in Gossip Frequency, Content, and Attitudes. Adam C. Davis. Evolutionary Psychological Science, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/gossip-as-intrasexual-competition.html
And: What Shall We Talk about in Farsi? Content of Everyday Conversations in Iran. Mahdi Dahmardeh, R. I. M. Dunbar. Human Nature, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/content-of-everyday-conversations-in.html. Pay attention to the table there.
Study on a Christian Chinese sample: sense of self-worth, well-being and locus of control
Study on a Christian Chinese sample: sense of self-worth, well-being and locus of control. Fei Wu, Qin Gong & Yanqing Dai. Mental Health, Religion & Culture, Volume 20, 2017 - Issue 3, Pages 239-245. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13674676.2017.1338680
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to explore Chinese Christians’ sense of self-worth, well-being, locus of control and the correlations between these variables. One hundred and two Chinese Christians with a range of 18–40 years old were surveyed by the Scale of Self-worth, Chinese version of General Well-Being Scale and internal–external Locus of Control Scale. A control group of 134 Chinese non-Christians participated in the same survey. Christians scored lower on locus of control and higher on self-worth than the non-Christians. No significant general well-being difference was between the Christian and non-Christian samples. The correlations were significant between locus of control and self-worth/general well-being (negative) and between self-worth and general well-being (positive). Results suggest that Christians experience better self-worth and tend to be internals on locus of control.
KEYWORDS: Christians, Locus of Control, sense of self-worth, general well-being
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to explore Chinese Christians’ sense of self-worth, well-being, locus of control and the correlations between these variables. One hundred and two Chinese Christians with a range of 18–40 years old were surveyed by the Scale of Self-worth, Chinese version of General Well-Being Scale and internal–external Locus of Control Scale. A control group of 134 Chinese non-Christians participated in the same survey. Christians scored lower on locus of control and higher on self-worth than the non-Christians. No significant general well-being difference was between the Christian and non-Christian samples. The correlations were significant between locus of control and self-worth/general well-being (negative) and between self-worth and general well-being (positive). Results suggest that Christians experience better self-worth and tend to be internals on locus of control.
KEYWORDS: Christians, Locus of Control, sense of self-worth, general well-being
In a realistic scenario, when women see an attractive potential partner, time slows. Opposite for men.
Time slows down whenever you are around for women but not for men. Margarida Rosa Pinho. Thesis, University of the Minho. Jul 2017. https://repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt/handle/1822/46685
Astract: What happens when we unexpectedly see an attractive potential partner? Previous studies in laboratorial settings suggest that the visualization of attractive and unattractive photographs influences time. The major aim of this research is to study time perception and attraction in a realistic social scenario, by investigating if changes in subjective time measured during a speed dating are associated with attraction. In the event, the duration of the dates was variable and participants had to estimate the time that passed. Among other measures, participants also rated the potential partners in terms of their physical attractiveness before and after the dates and reported if they would like to exchange contact with them. Results showed that, in a real speed dating situation, when there is a perception of the partner as being physically more attractive, women tend to overestimate the duration of that meeting, whereas men tend to underestimate its duration. Such changes may reflect evolutionary adaptations which make the human cognitive system more responsive in situations related to reproductive fitness.
---
More specifically, our results showed that the more females rated a potential partner as
physically attractive, the longer they perceived the duration of the date. That goes along with
the popular idea that “time slows down whenever you are around” (Swift, 2010). This may be
due to a bigger allocation of women’s cognitive resources to process more information of the
meeting (Loftus, Schooler, Boone, & Kline, 1987) and of the potential partner they are
interested in. More specifically, even though physical attractiveness is important in a potential partner, for women there are other characteristics that have a higher value, such as good economic perspectives (Buss & Barnes, 1986; Bech-Sørensen & Pollet, 2016). Therefore, searching for cues of positive traits in a potential mate requires the use of cognitive resources. Besides that, research has shown that when women perceived the partner as attractive, they tend to be more motivated to make a good impression on the partner and pay more attention to the things they say that might influence this impression (Dong & Wyer, 2014). According to Ornstein’s storage size model (1969), when people store more information in memory, they tend to perceive the duration of that interval of time as being longer. Furthermore, women may consider the experience with a partner who they consider physically attractive as positive in an emotional view. This result is also consistent with that study of Kellaris and Kent (1992) in which time did seems to slow downs when participants were exposed to positively balanced music, compared to participants exposed to negatively balanced music. The authors suggested that when people receive positive emotional information they tend to pay more cognitive resources to listening to music. Therefore, they tend to perceive the received stimulus information as bigger and remember the event as being longer (Ornstein, 1969). Besides that, a study conducted by Zhang, Zhang, Yu, Liu and Luo (2017) showed a reliable sex differences in temporal distortion with an emotional stimulus. Women, compared to men, tended to overestimated the durations presented in lexico-semantic level using emotional words.
However, for men, our results showed that time does not seems to slow down whenever someone attractive is around. In fact, the more males rated a female participant as physically attractive, the shorter they perceived the duration of the speed date. This seems to be consistent with the idea that “time flies when you are having fun”. Research has shown that men’s preferences for potential mates are based mostly in physical attractiveness (Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton, 2007). Therefore, when they have a meeting with a potential partner that they perceive as being physically attractive, they do not need to spend much cognitive resources searching for other cues, feeling automatically motivate to be with her. Consequently, they will tend to estimate the time that passed as being shorter. This result also suggests that time perception in males during the dates may be affected by motivation because, according to previous literature, positive approach motivation causes the perception of time to be shorter (Gable & Poole, 2012). Besides that, the subjective perception of the passage of time seems to be an important component to evaluate the experience of boredom (Danckert & Allman, 2005). So, when males are interested and motivated in the date with a physical attractive potential partner, they tend to estimate the date duration as shorter and, on the other hand, this time underestimation reinforces the perception of an interesting date (Sackett, Meyvis, Nelson, Converse, & Sackett, 2010). Underestimate the duration of the date may prolong approach-motivated behaviour (Gable & Poole, 2012) and this increases the probability of a successful mating. On time, Einstein said “Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute”.
According to Trivers (1972) theory, the relative parental investment of the sexes in their offspring is the key variable controlling the operation of sexual selection. A sexual intercourse that for a male is a reduced investment, for a female can produce a 9-month investment. For a female, this investment requires more choosiness in the partner choice. Besides that, prior research showed that females tend to be more selective (Kurzban & Weeden, 2005) and more discriminating (Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton, 2007) than males. Therefore, it is expected that females allocate more attention to capture a greater number of characteristics of the potential partner in addition to physical attractiveness, such as intelligence, earning prospect and other signs suggesting he could be good partner in the future. This process seems to imply an exhaustive evaluation in the first meeting which required spending a lot of cognitive resources. On the other hand, men are attracted for less characteristics of the partner compared to females (Luo & Zhang, 2009). So, males do not waste so much energy and resources in cognitive processing of information and focus more energy in having fun with the partners they perceived as being more attractive. Such changes may reflect evolutionary adaptations which make the human cognitive system more responsive in situations related to reproductive fitness. Williams (2012) suggested that sex differences in timing might be due to the effects of circulating estrogen in adult females versus testosterone in adult males. Besides that, gonadal hormones had been found to influence sexual motivation (Wallen, 2001). In men, testosterone increases interest in a woman, engagement in self-presentation, smiling and making eye contact. (Meij, Almela, Buunk, Fawcett & Salvador, 2011). Meij, Almela, Buunk, Fawcett and Salvador (2011) suggested that during encounters with the opposite sex, testosterone may promote the display of affiliative behaviours that increase a man’s mating prospects and during social contact with a potential partner testosterone is linked to the initiation of courtship behaviours. On the other hand, in women estradiol seems to be a significant positive predictor of sexual desire (Roney & Simmons, 2013).
Astract: What happens when we unexpectedly see an attractive potential partner? Previous studies in laboratorial settings suggest that the visualization of attractive and unattractive photographs influences time. The major aim of this research is to study time perception and attraction in a realistic social scenario, by investigating if changes in subjective time measured during a speed dating are associated with attraction. In the event, the duration of the dates was variable and participants had to estimate the time that passed. Among other measures, participants also rated the potential partners in terms of their physical attractiveness before and after the dates and reported if they would like to exchange contact with them. Results showed that, in a real speed dating situation, when there is a perception of the partner as being physically more attractive, women tend to overestimate the duration of that meeting, whereas men tend to underestimate its duration. Such changes may reflect evolutionary adaptations which make the human cognitive system more responsive in situations related to reproductive fitness.
---
More specifically, our results showed that the more females rated a potential partner as
physically attractive, the longer they perceived the duration of the date. That goes along with
the popular idea that “time slows down whenever you are around” (Swift, 2010). This may be
due to a bigger allocation of women’s cognitive resources to process more information of the
meeting (Loftus, Schooler, Boone, & Kline, 1987) and of the potential partner they are
interested in. More specifically, even though physical attractiveness is important in a potential partner, for women there are other characteristics that have a higher value, such as good economic perspectives (Buss & Barnes, 1986; Bech-Sørensen & Pollet, 2016). Therefore, searching for cues of positive traits in a potential mate requires the use of cognitive resources. Besides that, research has shown that when women perceived the partner as attractive, they tend to be more motivated to make a good impression on the partner and pay more attention to the things they say that might influence this impression (Dong & Wyer, 2014). According to Ornstein’s storage size model (1969), when people store more information in memory, they tend to perceive the duration of that interval of time as being longer. Furthermore, women may consider the experience with a partner who they consider physically attractive as positive in an emotional view. This result is also consistent with that study of Kellaris and Kent (1992) in which time did seems to slow downs when participants were exposed to positively balanced music, compared to participants exposed to negatively balanced music. The authors suggested that when people receive positive emotional information they tend to pay more cognitive resources to listening to music. Therefore, they tend to perceive the received stimulus information as bigger and remember the event as being longer (Ornstein, 1969). Besides that, a study conducted by Zhang, Zhang, Yu, Liu and Luo (2017) showed a reliable sex differences in temporal distortion with an emotional stimulus. Women, compared to men, tended to overestimated the durations presented in lexico-semantic level using emotional words.
However, for men, our results showed that time does not seems to slow down whenever someone attractive is around. In fact, the more males rated a female participant as physically attractive, the shorter they perceived the duration of the speed date. This seems to be consistent with the idea that “time flies when you are having fun”. Research has shown that men’s preferences for potential mates are based mostly in physical attractiveness (Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton, 2007). Therefore, when they have a meeting with a potential partner that they perceive as being physically attractive, they do not need to spend much cognitive resources searching for other cues, feeling automatically motivate to be with her. Consequently, they will tend to estimate the time that passed as being shorter. This result also suggests that time perception in males during the dates may be affected by motivation because, according to previous literature, positive approach motivation causes the perception of time to be shorter (Gable & Poole, 2012). Besides that, the subjective perception of the passage of time seems to be an important component to evaluate the experience of boredom (Danckert & Allman, 2005). So, when males are interested and motivated in the date with a physical attractive potential partner, they tend to estimate the date duration as shorter and, on the other hand, this time underestimation reinforces the perception of an interesting date (Sackett, Meyvis, Nelson, Converse, & Sackett, 2010). Underestimate the duration of the date may prolong approach-motivated behaviour (Gable & Poole, 2012) and this increases the probability of a successful mating. On time, Einstein said “Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute”.
According to Trivers (1972) theory, the relative parental investment of the sexes in their offspring is the key variable controlling the operation of sexual selection. A sexual intercourse that for a male is a reduced investment, for a female can produce a 9-month investment. For a female, this investment requires more choosiness in the partner choice. Besides that, prior research showed that females tend to be more selective (Kurzban & Weeden, 2005) and more discriminating (Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton, 2007) than males. Therefore, it is expected that females allocate more attention to capture a greater number of characteristics of the potential partner in addition to physical attractiveness, such as intelligence, earning prospect and other signs suggesting he could be good partner in the future. This process seems to imply an exhaustive evaluation in the first meeting which required spending a lot of cognitive resources. On the other hand, men are attracted for less characteristics of the partner compared to females (Luo & Zhang, 2009). So, males do not waste so much energy and resources in cognitive processing of information and focus more energy in having fun with the partners they perceived as being more attractive. Such changes may reflect evolutionary adaptations which make the human cognitive system more responsive in situations related to reproductive fitness. Williams (2012) suggested that sex differences in timing might be due to the effects of circulating estrogen in adult females versus testosterone in adult males. Besides that, gonadal hormones had been found to influence sexual motivation (Wallen, 2001). In men, testosterone increases interest in a woman, engagement in self-presentation, smiling and making eye contact. (Meij, Almela, Buunk, Fawcett & Salvador, 2011). Meij, Almela, Buunk, Fawcett and Salvador (2011) suggested that during encounters with the opposite sex, testosterone may promote the display of affiliative behaviours that increase a man’s mating prospects and during social contact with a potential partner testosterone is linked to the initiation of courtship behaviours. On the other hand, in women estradiol seems to be a significant positive predictor of sexual desire (Roney & Simmons, 2013).
Friday, October 20, 2017
Statistically inaccurate and morally unfair judgements via base rate intrusion
Statistically inaccurate and morally unfair judgements via base rate intrusion. Jack Cao, Max Kleiman-Weiner & Mahzarin R. Banaji. Nature Human Behaviour 1, 738–742 (2017). doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0218-y
Abstract: From a statistical standpoint, judgements about an individual are more accurate if base rates about the individual’s social group are taken into account1,2,3,4. But from a moral standpoint, using these base rates is considered unfair and can even be illegal5,6,7,8,9. Thus, the imperative to be statistically accurate is directly at odds with the imperative to be morally fair. This conflict was resolved by creating tasks in which Bayesian rationality and moral fairness were aligned, thereby allowing social judgements to be both accurate and fair. Despite this alignment, we show that social judgements were inaccurate and unfair. Instead of appropriately setting aside social group differences, participants erroneously relied on them when making judgements about specific individuals. This bias—which we call base rate intrusion—was robust, generalized across various social groups (gender, race, nationality and age), and differed from analogous non-social judgements. Results also demonstrate how social judgements can be corrected to achieve both statistical accuracy and moral fairness. Overall, these data (total N = 5,138) highlight the pernicious effects of social base rates: under conditions that closely approximate those of everyday life10,11,12, these base rates can undermine the rationality and fairness of human judgements.
Abstract: From a statistical standpoint, judgements about an individual are more accurate if base rates about the individual’s social group are taken into account1,2,3,4. But from a moral standpoint, using these base rates is considered unfair and can even be illegal5,6,7,8,9. Thus, the imperative to be statistically accurate is directly at odds with the imperative to be morally fair. This conflict was resolved by creating tasks in which Bayesian rationality and moral fairness were aligned, thereby allowing social judgements to be both accurate and fair. Despite this alignment, we show that social judgements were inaccurate and unfair. Instead of appropriately setting aside social group differences, participants erroneously relied on them when making judgements about specific individuals. This bias—which we call base rate intrusion—was robust, generalized across various social groups (gender, race, nationality and age), and differed from analogous non-social judgements. Results also demonstrate how social judgements can be corrected to achieve both statistical accuracy and moral fairness. Overall, these data (total N = 5,138) highlight the pernicious effects of social base rates: under conditions that closely approximate those of everyday life10,11,12, these base rates can undermine the rationality and fairness of human judgements.
Foreign-Looking Native-Accented People: More Competent When First Seen Rather Than Heard
Foreign-Looking Native-Accented People: More Competent When First Seen Rather Than Heard. Karolina Hansen, Tamara Rakić and Melanie Steffens. Social Psychological and Personality Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617732389
Abstract: Psychological research has neglected people whose accent does not match their appearance. Most research on person perception has focused on appearance, overlooking accents that are equally important social cues. If accents were studied, it was often done in isolation (i.e., detached from appearance). We examine how varying accent and appearance information about people affects evaluations. We show that evaluations of expectancy-violating people shift in the direction of the added information. When a job candidate looked foreign, but later spoke with a native accent, his evaluations rose and he was evaluated best of all candidates (Experiment 1a). However, the sequence in which information was presented mattered: When heard first and then seen, his evaluations dropped (Experiment 1b). Findings demonstrate the importance of studying the combination and sequence of different types of information in impression formation. They also allow predicting reactions to ethnically mixed people, who are increasingly present in modern societies.
Abstract: Psychological research has neglected people whose accent does not match their appearance. Most research on person perception has focused on appearance, overlooking accents that are equally important social cues. If accents were studied, it was often done in isolation (i.e., detached from appearance). We examine how varying accent and appearance information about people affects evaluations. We show that evaluations of expectancy-violating people shift in the direction of the added information. When a job candidate looked foreign, but later spoke with a native accent, his evaluations rose and he was evaluated best of all candidates (Experiment 1a). However, the sequence in which information was presented mattered: When heard first and then seen, his evaluations dropped (Experiment 1b). Findings demonstrate the importance of studying the combination and sequence of different types of information in impression formation. They also allow predicting reactions to ethnically mixed people, who are increasingly present in modern societies.
Sexual objectification decreases women’s experiential consumption (but not material consumption)
Sexual objectification decreases women’s experiential consumption (but not material consumption). Fei Teng, Xue Wang & Ye Yang. Social Influence, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15534510.2017.1378126
Abstract: The current investigation examined our prediction that sexual objectification decreases women’s experiential consumption but not material consumption. Three experiments provided converging support for this prediction. In particular, female participants reported lower tendency to engage in experiential consumption after recalling a past experience of objectification (Studies 1 and 3) and chose a material product over an experiential one after receiving objectifying comments (Study 2). Furthermore, Study 3 found that sexual objectification reduced purchase inclination of experiential products, and this effect did not emerge for material products. These findings contribute to the literature on sexual objectification by showing the impact of sexual objectification on women’s economic decisions and behaviors.
Keywords: Sexual objectification, experiential consumption, consumer behavior
Abstract: The current investigation examined our prediction that sexual objectification decreases women’s experiential consumption but not material consumption. Three experiments provided converging support for this prediction. In particular, female participants reported lower tendency to engage in experiential consumption after recalling a past experience of objectification (Studies 1 and 3) and chose a material product over an experiential one after receiving objectifying comments (Study 2). Furthermore, Study 3 found that sexual objectification reduced purchase inclination of experiential products, and this effect did not emerge for material products. These findings contribute to the literature on sexual objectification by showing the impact of sexual objectification on women’s economic decisions and behaviors.
Keywords: Sexual objectification, experiential consumption, consumer behavior
Origin of the RNA world: The fate of nucleobases in warm little ponds
Origin of the RNA world: The fate of nucleobases in warm little ponds. Ben Pearce et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published online before print October 2, 2017, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1710339114
Significance: There are currently two competing hypotheses for the site at which an RNA world emerged: hydrothermal vents in the deep ocean and warm little ponds. Because the former lacks wet and dry cycles, which are well known to promote polymerization (in this case, of nucleotides into RNA), we construct a comprehensive model for the origin of RNA in the latter sites. Our model advances the story and timeline of the RNA world by constraining the source of biomolecules, the environmental conditions, the timescales of reaction, and the emergence of first RNA polymers.
Abstract: Before the origin of simple cellular life, the building blocks of RNA (nucleotides) had to form and polymerize in favorable environments on early Earth. At this time, meteorites and interplanetary dust particles delivered organics such as nucleobases (the characteristic molecules of nucleotides) to warm little ponds whose wet-dry cycles promoted rapid polymerization. We build a comprehensive numerical model for the evolution of nucleobases in warm little ponds leading to the emergence of the first nucleotides and RNA. We couple Earth's early evolution with complex prebiotic chemistry in these environments. We find that RNA polymers must have emerged very quickly after the deposition of meteorites (less than a few years). Their constituent nucleobases were primarily meteoritic in origin and not from interplanetary dust particles. Ponds appeared as continents rose out of the early global ocean, but this increasing availability of "targets" for meteorites was offset by declining meteorite bombardment rates. Moreover, the rapid losses of nucleobases to pond seepage during wet periods, and to UV photodissociation during dry periods, mean that the synthesis of nucleotides and their polymerization into RNA occurred in just one to a few wet-dry cycles. Under these conditions, RNA polymers likely appeared before 4.17 billion years ago.
Significance: There are currently two competing hypotheses for the site at which an RNA world emerged: hydrothermal vents in the deep ocean and warm little ponds. Because the former lacks wet and dry cycles, which are well known to promote polymerization (in this case, of nucleotides into RNA), we construct a comprehensive model for the origin of RNA in the latter sites. Our model advances the story and timeline of the RNA world by constraining the source of biomolecules, the environmental conditions, the timescales of reaction, and the emergence of first RNA polymers.
Abstract: Before the origin of simple cellular life, the building blocks of RNA (nucleotides) had to form and polymerize in favorable environments on early Earth. At this time, meteorites and interplanetary dust particles delivered organics such as nucleobases (the characteristic molecules of nucleotides) to warm little ponds whose wet-dry cycles promoted rapid polymerization. We build a comprehensive numerical model for the evolution of nucleobases in warm little ponds leading to the emergence of the first nucleotides and RNA. We couple Earth's early evolution with complex prebiotic chemistry in these environments. We find that RNA polymers must have emerged very quickly after the deposition of meteorites (less than a few years). Their constituent nucleobases were primarily meteoritic in origin and not from interplanetary dust particles. Ponds appeared as continents rose out of the early global ocean, but this increasing availability of "targets" for meteorites was offset by declining meteorite bombardment rates. Moreover, the rapid losses of nucleobases to pond seepage during wet periods, and to UV photodissociation during dry periods, mean that the synthesis of nucleotides and their polymerization into RNA occurred in just one to a few wet-dry cycles. Under these conditions, RNA polymers likely appeared before 4.17 billion years ago.
Motor cortex and volitional control: Ability to suppress undesired movement
Motor cortex — to act or not to act? Christian Laut Ebbesen & Michael Brecht. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 18, 694–705 (2017), doi:10.1038/nrn.2017.119
Abstract: The motor cortex is a large frontal structure in the cerebral cortex of eutherian mammals. A vast array of evidence implicates the motor cortex in the volitional control of motor output, but how does the motor cortex exert this 'control'? Historically, ideas regarding motor cortex function have been shaped by the discovery of cortical 'motor maps' — that is, ordered representations of stimulation-evoked movements in anaesthetized animals. Volitional control, however, entails the initiation of movements and the ability to suppress undesired movements. In this article, we highlight classic and recent findings that emphasize that motor cortex neurons have a role in both processes.
My commentary: Most of the interest in the motor cortex is about movement initiation, forgetting the important issue of control (when to stop, at which distance, etc.). This paper reviews both functions (start and stop).
Abstract: The motor cortex is a large frontal structure in the cerebral cortex of eutherian mammals. A vast array of evidence implicates the motor cortex in the volitional control of motor output, but how does the motor cortex exert this 'control'? Historically, ideas regarding motor cortex function have been shaped by the discovery of cortical 'motor maps' — that is, ordered representations of stimulation-evoked movements in anaesthetized animals. Volitional control, however, entails the initiation of movements and the ability to suppress undesired movements. In this article, we highlight classic and recent findings that emphasize that motor cortex neurons have a role in both processes.
My commentary: Most of the interest in the motor cortex is about movement initiation, forgetting the important issue of control (when to stop, at which distance, etc.). This paper reviews both functions (start and stop).
The highest-earning women's wages are penalized by obesity as much as five times that of the lowest earners
On the Distributional and Evolutionary Nature of the Obesity Wage Penalty. Christian Brown, P. Wesley Routon. Economics & Human Biology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2017.10.001
Highlights
• We examine the obesity wage penalty across the wage distribution and career.
• Quantile and fixed-effect quantile regression control for unobserved heterogeneity.
• We find an increasingly severe penalty across the wages distribution for women.
• The obesity wage penalty has grown over time and may slow wage growth.
Abstract: The economics literature supports a link between labor market measures, such as earnings, and health conditions, such as obesity. There is reason to believe the effects of obesity on wages may vary for high- and low-earning individuals and that obesity wage effects may evolve over a lifecycle or from generation to generation. Drawing on data from two longitudinal surveys, we estimate quantile and fixed effect quantile regressions, among others, to further examine the obesity wage effect. Results suggest an increasingly severe penalty across the wage distribution for females. Specifically, the highest-earning women may be penalized as much as five times that of the lowest earners. Results for males suggest that penalties may be present at select wage levels, while prior research has generally found no male obesity penalty. We also provide evidence that the obesity penalty has increased across generations and limited evidence that it may slow earnings growth over one’s lifetime.
JEL: I10; I14; J31
Keywords: Obesity; earnings; wage penalty; longitudinal quantile regression; NLSY79; NLSY97
My commentary: What we imagine is the life of the obese persons? We intuitively believe that getting up in the morning is more slow, that with age the knees will suffer more due to the excessive weight of the body above them, and in some way productivity diminishes.
For those earning less, which are not penalized, the more physical nature of work needs a greater BMI than those of higher earnings.
"Alternatively, individuals with higher BMI may be self-selecting into lower wages by reducing their involvement in the labor market. This is possible if individuals with higher BMIs expect to work less, work for fewer years, or experience attendant health conditions that will limit their ability to work and their employee lifecycle. Further, if higher BMI individuals expect to face discrimination, this may reduce job search time and desire to seek out training, education, and promotion opportunities.
Conversely, obesity penalties are found for the higher key quantiles of the distribution generally associated with more sedentary and competitive forms of work. If BMI is not an important determinant of low wages, and is a major determinant of higher wages, this may suggest that discrimination occurs in the labor market. In an asymmetrical information context, employers discriminate against obese individuals by paying them less or denying opportunities [...] because obesity is seen as an observable proxy for unobservable negative characteristics. It could be that employers are expecting an increased likelihood of healthcare costs and are preemptively selecting obese employees out of employment opportunities which would result in an increasing lifetime earnings profile."
Highlights
• We examine the obesity wage penalty across the wage distribution and career.
• Quantile and fixed-effect quantile regression control for unobserved heterogeneity.
• We find an increasingly severe penalty across the wages distribution for women.
• The obesity wage penalty has grown over time and may slow wage growth.
Abstract: The economics literature supports a link between labor market measures, such as earnings, and health conditions, such as obesity. There is reason to believe the effects of obesity on wages may vary for high- and low-earning individuals and that obesity wage effects may evolve over a lifecycle or from generation to generation. Drawing on data from two longitudinal surveys, we estimate quantile and fixed effect quantile regressions, among others, to further examine the obesity wage effect. Results suggest an increasingly severe penalty across the wage distribution for females. Specifically, the highest-earning women may be penalized as much as five times that of the lowest earners. Results for males suggest that penalties may be present at select wage levels, while prior research has generally found no male obesity penalty. We also provide evidence that the obesity penalty has increased across generations and limited evidence that it may slow earnings growth over one’s lifetime.
JEL: I10; I14; J31
Keywords: Obesity; earnings; wage penalty; longitudinal quantile regression; NLSY79; NLSY97
My commentary: What we imagine is the life of the obese persons? We intuitively believe that getting up in the morning is more slow, that with age the knees will suffer more due to the excessive weight of the body above them, and in some way productivity diminishes.
For those earning less, which are not penalized, the more physical nature of work needs a greater BMI than those of higher earnings.
"Alternatively, individuals with higher BMI may be self-selecting into lower wages by reducing their involvement in the labor market. This is possible if individuals with higher BMIs expect to work less, work for fewer years, or experience attendant health conditions that will limit their ability to work and their employee lifecycle. Further, if higher BMI individuals expect to face discrimination, this may reduce job search time and desire to seek out training, education, and promotion opportunities.
Conversely, obesity penalties are found for the higher key quantiles of the distribution generally associated with more sedentary and competitive forms of work. If BMI is not an important determinant of low wages, and is a major determinant of higher wages, this may suggest that discrimination occurs in the labor market. In an asymmetrical information context, employers discriminate against obese individuals by paying them less or denying opportunities [...] because obesity is seen as an observable proxy for unobservable negative characteristics. It could be that employers are expecting an increased likelihood of healthcare costs and are preemptively selecting obese employees out of employment opportunities which would result in an increasing lifetime earnings profile."
Thursday, October 19, 2017
“Naked Bonobo” demolishes myth of sexy, egalitarian bonobos
Faux-nobo: “Naked Bonobo” demolishes myth of sexy, egalitarian bonobos. Edward Clint • Oct 9, 2017. https://www.skepticink.com/incredulous/2017/10/09/bonobo-myth-demolished
Just a selection of a very interesting post reviewing Lynn Saxon's book:
"
That said, bonobo society is far from peaceful and bonobos are far from gentle.
Kano (1992) found a majority of one group’s individuals had “abnormalities” of the limbs, digits, ears, eyeballs, genitalia, and other parts. 28 counts of total loss of a finger or toe, 96 counts of partial loss. Only one of the 22 adult males had intact fingers and toes. 32 counts of ear lacerations which almost always result from fighting. (p. 117-8)
At Apenheul Zoo in the Netherlands, five female bonobos attacked a male and were seen gnawing on his toes; the flesh could be seen between their teeth as they chewed away. (p. 119)
At least two zookeepers have lost parts of digits (p. 119)
While releasing bonobos back into the wild after rehabilitation at a sanctuary, three trackers were attacked and mutilated. They lost noses, bits of fingers and one lost an ear. One of the men spent a month in the hospital and two required a year of reconstructive facial surgery. (p. 122)
Overall, male-male aggression rates are similar in chimpanzees and bonobos (p. 126)
Female aggression toward infants and other females
The alpha female at Twycross Zoo took the infant of the lowest ranking female, even though she was still nursing her own infant. After weeks of rough treatment at the alpha’s hands, she lost interest and the infant had to be removed for human rearing as it showed signs of “weakness and dehydration”. (p. 120-121)
There are at least 8 cases of infant abduction or victim of aggressive behavior at the Plankendael and Stuttgart zoos; the mothers of the stolen infants behaved nervously and showed signs of distress. While trying to get their infants back, some of the females would present for genito-genital rubbing. (p. 121)
Is there anything sexier than bartering a sex act for your baby’s life?
In one Lomako group, aggression between females was about 7 times higher when two or more oestrous females were in the party than when there was only one. (p. 124)
I thought that females were keeping the peace with sex, not causing fights over sex?
Next, are bonobos egalitarian? That is, are various goods and resources (food, sex, social support) more evenly distributed among individuals? Chimpanzees are thought to have the opposite arrangement, a more rigid rank system that greatly privileges the chimp elites. Saxon writes that bonobos are probably somewhat more egalitarian than chimpanzees, but much less so than is commonly supposed. Sometimes, it is not clear that there is a difference at all.
A female-biased sex ratio is taken to be evidence of male intrasexual competition. Competition is a physiologically taxing and risky enterprise that leads to early death for many males. The problem here is that, overall, the sex ratio of chimpanzees and bonobos is very similar.
Both females and males had higher mating rates when they were aggressors compared to when they were targets of aggression. (p. 124)
Bonobo society, including its females, rewards rank and aggression:
Females strongly prefer high ranking males. When in oestrus, this preference intensifies.
High ranking males are more aggressive, and actively block other males from access to fertile females.
Ranking female “wingmoms” aid their sons (but not daughters) in bullying and picking fights to advance their status. (p. 115)
Feeding is highly segmented by rank. Low ranking individuals may be charged or attacked if attempting to line-jump.
Female bonobos disperse to other groups around adolescence. When accepted in their new group, they solicit sex acts from higher ranking males at food sites. This behavior, and their total libido, drops substantially as they gain rank. In order words, they’re forced to barter sex for food. Not because they’re eager for sexual contact. When they don’t have to, they don’t. Few consider coerced prostitution a sign of gender equality.
...
4. Should humans envy bonobos?
Perhaps the most important idea in this book is that the “great” parts of the faux-nobo lifestyle wannabes want us to emulate, properly understood, become disturbing if not nightmares outright:
“Sexy” bonobos have the most frequent sex as sub-adults and sexual contact between juveniles, infants, and adults is quite common and normal.
“Tension-reducing” sex among bonobos is most often not about fun. It is not about enthusiastic consent, but coercion on threat of aggression. Like humans, we know that bonobos have preferred sexual partners. But the social friction most likely occurs between two individuals who are not close or friendly. Bonobos are therefore required to offer sexual contact to individuals they do not like. Faced with an agitated, aggressive male you do not care for, how do you women feel about offering copulation to calm him? And men, how do you feel about offering a penis to rub or your rump for the same? This is the bonobo way.
The overwhelming majority of sexual actions involving genitals do not involve ejaculation or (so far as can be told) orgasm in bonobos. This includes masturbation and intercourse.
"
Just a selection of a very interesting post reviewing Lynn Saxon's book:
"
That said, bonobo society is far from peaceful and bonobos are far from gentle.
Kano (1992) found a majority of one group’s individuals had “abnormalities” of the limbs, digits, ears, eyeballs, genitalia, and other parts. 28 counts of total loss of a finger or toe, 96 counts of partial loss. Only one of the 22 adult males had intact fingers and toes. 32 counts of ear lacerations which almost always result from fighting. (p. 117-8)
At Apenheul Zoo in the Netherlands, five female bonobos attacked a male and were seen gnawing on his toes; the flesh could be seen between their teeth as they chewed away. (p. 119)
At least two zookeepers have lost parts of digits (p. 119)
While releasing bonobos back into the wild after rehabilitation at a sanctuary, three trackers were attacked and mutilated. They lost noses, bits of fingers and one lost an ear. One of the men spent a month in the hospital and two required a year of reconstructive facial surgery. (p. 122)
Overall, male-male aggression rates are similar in chimpanzees and bonobos (p. 126)
Female aggression toward infants and other females
The alpha female at Twycross Zoo took the infant of the lowest ranking female, even though she was still nursing her own infant. After weeks of rough treatment at the alpha’s hands, she lost interest and the infant had to be removed for human rearing as it showed signs of “weakness and dehydration”. (p. 120-121)
There are at least 8 cases of infant abduction or victim of aggressive behavior at the Plankendael and Stuttgart zoos; the mothers of the stolen infants behaved nervously and showed signs of distress. While trying to get their infants back, some of the females would present for genito-genital rubbing. (p. 121)
Is there anything sexier than bartering a sex act for your baby’s life?
In one Lomako group, aggression between females was about 7 times higher when two or more oestrous females were in the party than when there was only one. (p. 124)
I thought that females were keeping the peace with sex, not causing fights over sex?
Next, are bonobos egalitarian? That is, are various goods and resources (food, sex, social support) more evenly distributed among individuals? Chimpanzees are thought to have the opposite arrangement, a more rigid rank system that greatly privileges the chimp elites. Saxon writes that bonobos are probably somewhat more egalitarian than chimpanzees, but much less so than is commonly supposed. Sometimes, it is not clear that there is a difference at all.
A female-biased sex ratio is taken to be evidence of male intrasexual competition. Competition is a physiologically taxing and risky enterprise that leads to early death for many males. The problem here is that, overall, the sex ratio of chimpanzees and bonobos is very similar.
Both females and males had higher mating rates when they were aggressors compared to when they were targets of aggression. (p. 124)
Bonobo society, including its females, rewards rank and aggression:
Females strongly prefer high ranking males. When in oestrus, this preference intensifies.
High ranking males are more aggressive, and actively block other males from access to fertile females.
Ranking female “wingmoms” aid their sons (but not daughters) in bullying and picking fights to advance their status. (p. 115)
Feeding is highly segmented by rank. Low ranking individuals may be charged or attacked if attempting to line-jump.
Female bonobos disperse to other groups around adolescence. When accepted in their new group, they solicit sex acts from higher ranking males at food sites. This behavior, and their total libido, drops substantially as they gain rank. In order words, they’re forced to barter sex for food. Not because they’re eager for sexual contact. When they don’t have to, they don’t. Few consider coerced prostitution a sign of gender equality.
...
4. Should humans envy bonobos?
Perhaps the most important idea in this book is that the “great” parts of the faux-nobo lifestyle wannabes want us to emulate, properly understood, become disturbing if not nightmares outright:
“Sexy” bonobos have the most frequent sex as sub-adults and sexual contact between juveniles, infants, and adults is quite common and normal.
“Tension-reducing” sex among bonobos is most often not about fun. It is not about enthusiastic consent, but coercion on threat of aggression. Like humans, we know that bonobos have preferred sexual partners. But the social friction most likely occurs between two individuals who are not close or friendly. Bonobos are therefore required to offer sexual contact to individuals they do not like. Faced with an agitated, aggressive male you do not care for, how do you women feel about offering copulation to calm him? And men, how do you feel about offering a penis to rub or your rump for the same? This is the bonobo way.
The overwhelming majority of sexual actions involving genitals do not involve ejaculation or (so far as can be told) orgasm in bonobos. This includes masturbation and intercourse.
"
Hedge Fund Managers With Psychopathic Tendencies Make for Worse Investor
Hedge Fund Managers With Psychopathic Tendencies Make for Worse Investors. Leanne ten Brinke, Aimee Kish, Dacher Keltner. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. First published date: October-19-2017. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167217733080
Abstract: It is widely assumed that psychopathic personality traits promote success in high-powered, competitive contexts such as financial investment. By contrast, empirical studies find that psychopathic leaders can be charming and persuasive, but poor performers who mismanage, bully, and engage in unethical behavior. By coding nonverbal behaviors displayed in semistructured interviews, we identified the psychopathic, Machiavellian, and narcissistic tendencies in 101 hedge fund managers, and examined whether these traits were associated with financial performance over the course of 10 diverse years of economic volatility (2005-2015). Managers with greater psychopathic tendencies produced lower absolute returns than their less psychopathic peers, and managers with greater narcissistic traits produced decreased risk-adjusted returns. The discussion focuses on the costs of Dark Triad traits in financial investment, and organizational leadership more generally.
Abstract: It is widely assumed that psychopathic personality traits promote success in high-powered, competitive contexts such as financial investment. By contrast, empirical studies find that psychopathic leaders can be charming and persuasive, but poor performers who mismanage, bully, and engage in unethical behavior. By coding nonverbal behaviors displayed in semistructured interviews, we identified the psychopathic, Machiavellian, and narcissistic tendencies in 101 hedge fund managers, and examined whether these traits were associated with financial performance over the course of 10 diverse years of economic volatility (2005-2015). Managers with greater psychopathic tendencies produced lower absolute returns than their less psychopathic peers, and managers with greater narcissistic traits produced decreased risk-adjusted returns. The discussion focuses on the costs of Dark Triad traits in financial investment, and organizational leadership more generally.
Vindeby, The World’s First Offshore Wind Farm Retires: A Post-Mortem
World’s First Offshore Wind Farm Retires: A Post-Mortem. M J Kelly, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom. Date: 18/10/17
https://www.thegwpf.com/worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm-retires-a-post-mortem/
The first-ever offshore wind farm, Vindeby, in Danish waters, is being decommissioned after twenty-five years, DONG Energy has announced.[1] By its nature it was an experiment, and we can now see whether or not is has been a successful alternative to fossil or nuclear-fuelled electricity.
It consisted of eleven turbines, each with a capacity of 0.45 MW, giving a total export capacity for the wind farm of 5 MW. The hub height of each turbine was 37.5 m and blade height 17 m, small by today’s standards. Because of its date of construction, it would have been all but totally reliant on conventional energy for its manufacture and installation. The original stated project cost was £7.16 million in 1991, which is equivalent to approximately £10 million today.[2]
During its lifetime, it delivered 243 GWh to the Danish electricity grid. This means that the actual amount of electricity generated was 22% of that which would have been generated if it had delivered 5 MW all the time for 25 years. In technical terms, it had a load factor of 0.22. From the same source we see the initial expectation was that 3506 houses would be powered annually, with a saving of 7085 tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum.[3] There was no clear indication of Vindeby’s expected lifetime. Since the average household’s annual use of energy in Denmark[4] is 5000 kWh, we can calculate that the windfarm’s anticipated energy output was 438 GWh over its 25-year lifetime. The actual total of 243 GWh was therefore only 55% of that expectation.
The (annual average) spot price for electricity from both the European Energy Exchange and Nordpool quoted over the period 2006–2014 dropped approximately linearly from €50–55/MWh in 2006 to €32–37/MWh in 2014.[5] If we assume that this trend was constant over 1991–2017, we can see that the average wholesale price paid for the Vindeby electricity was of order of €50/MWh. On this basis the revenue of the windfarm was approximately €12 million: perhaps €15 million at today’s prices. This means that the windmill spent 75% of its life paying off the £10 million cost of its construction, and most of the rest paying for maintenance. In terms of effective energy revenue, the return on input cost was close to 1:1. The individual project may have been just profitable, but the project is insufficiently productive as will be seen below.
Other windfarms have performed even worse. Lely, an smaller farm sited off the Netherlands coast, was decommissioned last year.[6] It consisted of four turbines of 0.5 MW capacity, and cost £4.4 million in 1992. One nacelle and blades failed in 2014 because of metal fatigue.[7] It produced 3500 MWh per year, implying a load factor of 20%. At the same €50/MWh as above, it would have earned €4.2 million, less than the initial project cost, let alone the additional cost of any maintenance, by any way of reckoning.[8]
The reader should note that the analysis above assumes that the scrap value of the wind turbines will pay for the decommissioning process, and so does not degrade the ratio any further: presumably the bases will remain in the sea. This assumption has been made explicit for the Cowley Ridge wind farm in Alberta, Canada, for which the actual electricity energy delivered into the Canadian grid is not in the public domain, so this similar exercise cannot be repeated.[9]
For a typical fossil-fuel plant, effective energy revenue return on input cost is of the order of 50:1 if one considers the plant alone and about 15:1 when one includes the cost of the fuel. For a nuclear plant the ratio is more like 70:1, and the fuel is a negligible part of the overall cost. The energy generation and distribution sector makes up approximately 9% of the whole world economy, suggesting that the global energy sector has an energy return ratio of 11:1.[10] It is this high average ratio, buoyed by much higher ratios in certain areas (e.g.15:1 in Europe), that allows our present world economy to function.
The lesson learned from the considerations discussed above is that wind farms like these early examples could not power a modern economy unless assisted by substantial fossil-fuelled energy.
Interestingly, DONG Energy, which built Vindeby, is proposing the much newer and bigger Hornsea Project One in the North Sea. This wind farm will have 174 turbines, each with a hub height of 113 m, 75 m blades and a nameplate capacity of 7 MW. It is due to be commissioned in 2020.[11] The project capacity is 1218 MW, and it has a current cost estimate of €3.36 billion. No clear statement of expected lifetime has been provided, but DONG has stated that 862,655 homes will be powered annually. Assuming the average per-household electricity use in the UK[12] to be 4000 kWh, this implies a constant generation of 394 MW over the year, which is 32% of capacity, which is probably realistic.
The agreed wholesale price of the Hornsea energy over the next twenty-five years is £140/MWh. Even assuming a very generous load factor of 50%, Hornsea’s lifetime revenue would be about £20 billion, suggesting a ratio of revenue to cost of 6:1 (reduced further by any maintenance costs), still barely half the average value that prevails in the global economy, which is more than 85% fossil-fuel based.
The secret of the fossil fuel success in the world economy is the high calorific value of the fuel. A ton of coal costing £42.50 produces of the order of 2000 kWh of electricity in a new coal-fired power plants (up 30% from older plants). This sells for £400 wholesale, with an energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of 10:1. A therm of natural gas costs £0.40, and produces 30 kWh of electricity, which sells for £6, representing an EROEI of 15:1. Fuel-less technologies do not have this advantage.
The disappointing results from Vindeby, and the likely results from Hornsea and similar projects must be seen in the context of the increasing wealth of a growing world population. If all the world’s 10.3 billion people alive in 2055 were to lead a European (as opposed to American) style of life, we would need 2.5 times the primary energy as used today. If, say, half of the energy is suddenly produced with an energy return on investment of 5.5:1 (i.e. half the present world average), then for the same investment we would get only 75% of the energy and we would need to cut energy consumption: the first 10% reduction could come by curtailing higher education, international air travel, the internet, advanced medicine and high culture. We could invest proportionately more of our economy in energy production than we do now, but that will still mean a step backward against the trend of the last 200 years of reducing the proportion of the total economy taken by the energy sector.[13] To avoid this undesirable scenario we would need new forms of energy to match the fossil/nuclear fuel performance.
In this context it is useful to remember that global economic growth is very sensitive to the cost of energy. The energy cost spikes in the mid-1970s and in 2010 form the boundaries between the 5% growth rate of the global economy from 1950–1975, the 3% from 1980–2008, and the 2.5% since 2012. There is a lot at stake in the choice between cheap fossil fuels and expensive renewables.
Notes
[1] http://www.dongenergy.com/en/media/newsroom/news/articles/the-worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm-is-retiring
[2] http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/vindeby-denmark-dk06.html
[3] http://www.dongenergy.com/en/media/newsroom/news/articles/the-worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm-is-retiring
[4] http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/4203486/ICT_ECEEE_2009_paper.pdf
[5] http://www.pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/pfb_decreasing_wholesale_prices_2015_11_11.pdf
[6] http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/lely-netherlands-nl27.html
[7] http://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/07/lely-wind-farm-fully-decommissioned-video/
[8] http://www.caddet-re.org/assets/no61.pdf
[9] http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2016/05/transalta-shuts-cowley-ridge-wind-farm-in-alberta-may-repower-it.html
[10] http://www.thegwpf.com/michael-kelly-a-challenge-for-renewable-energies/
[11] http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/hornsea-project-one-united-kingdom-uk81.html
[12] https://www.statista.com/statistics/517845/average-electricity-consumption-uk/
[13] Until the industrial revolution, the UK economy operated on an energy return investment of 2:1: see C. W. King, J P Maxwell and A Donovan, ‘Comparing world economic and net energy metrics, Part I: Single Technology and Commercial Perspective’ Energies 2015: 12949-74. The 2:1 ratio applies in some parts of Africa today: when half the economy is spent providing food and fuel, it leaves little over for other activities.
https://www.thegwpf.com/worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm-retires-a-post-mortem/
The first-ever offshore wind farm, Vindeby, in Danish waters, is being decommissioned after twenty-five years, DONG Energy has announced.[1] By its nature it was an experiment, and we can now see whether or not is has been a successful alternative to fossil or nuclear-fuelled electricity.
It consisted of eleven turbines, each with a capacity of 0.45 MW, giving a total export capacity for the wind farm of 5 MW. The hub height of each turbine was 37.5 m and blade height 17 m, small by today’s standards. Because of its date of construction, it would have been all but totally reliant on conventional energy for its manufacture and installation. The original stated project cost was £7.16 million in 1991, which is equivalent to approximately £10 million today.[2]
During its lifetime, it delivered 243 GWh to the Danish electricity grid. This means that the actual amount of electricity generated was 22% of that which would have been generated if it had delivered 5 MW all the time for 25 years. In technical terms, it had a load factor of 0.22. From the same source we see the initial expectation was that 3506 houses would be powered annually, with a saving of 7085 tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum.[3] There was no clear indication of Vindeby’s expected lifetime. Since the average household’s annual use of energy in Denmark[4] is 5000 kWh, we can calculate that the windfarm’s anticipated energy output was 438 GWh over its 25-year lifetime. The actual total of 243 GWh was therefore only 55% of that expectation.
The (annual average) spot price for electricity from both the European Energy Exchange and Nordpool quoted over the period 2006–2014 dropped approximately linearly from €50–55/MWh in 2006 to €32–37/MWh in 2014.[5] If we assume that this trend was constant over 1991–2017, we can see that the average wholesale price paid for the Vindeby electricity was of order of €50/MWh. On this basis the revenue of the windfarm was approximately €12 million: perhaps €15 million at today’s prices. This means that the windmill spent 75% of its life paying off the £10 million cost of its construction, and most of the rest paying for maintenance. In terms of effective energy revenue, the return on input cost was close to 1:1. The individual project may have been just profitable, but the project is insufficiently productive as will be seen below.
Other windfarms have performed even worse. Lely, an smaller farm sited off the Netherlands coast, was decommissioned last year.[6] It consisted of four turbines of 0.5 MW capacity, and cost £4.4 million in 1992. One nacelle and blades failed in 2014 because of metal fatigue.[7] It produced 3500 MWh per year, implying a load factor of 20%. At the same €50/MWh as above, it would have earned €4.2 million, less than the initial project cost, let alone the additional cost of any maintenance, by any way of reckoning.[8]
The reader should note that the analysis above assumes that the scrap value of the wind turbines will pay for the decommissioning process, and so does not degrade the ratio any further: presumably the bases will remain in the sea. This assumption has been made explicit for the Cowley Ridge wind farm in Alberta, Canada, for which the actual electricity energy delivered into the Canadian grid is not in the public domain, so this similar exercise cannot be repeated.[9]
For a typical fossil-fuel plant, effective energy revenue return on input cost is of the order of 50:1 if one considers the plant alone and about 15:1 when one includes the cost of the fuel. For a nuclear plant the ratio is more like 70:1, and the fuel is a negligible part of the overall cost. The energy generation and distribution sector makes up approximately 9% of the whole world economy, suggesting that the global energy sector has an energy return ratio of 11:1.[10] It is this high average ratio, buoyed by much higher ratios in certain areas (e.g.15:1 in Europe), that allows our present world economy to function.
The lesson learned from the considerations discussed above is that wind farms like these early examples could not power a modern economy unless assisted by substantial fossil-fuelled energy.
Interestingly, DONG Energy, which built Vindeby, is proposing the much newer and bigger Hornsea Project One in the North Sea. This wind farm will have 174 turbines, each with a hub height of 113 m, 75 m blades and a nameplate capacity of 7 MW. It is due to be commissioned in 2020.[11] The project capacity is 1218 MW, and it has a current cost estimate of €3.36 billion. No clear statement of expected lifetime has been provided, but DONG has stated that 862,655 homes will be powered annually. Assuming the average per-household electricity use in the UK[12] to be 4000 kWh, this implies a constant generation of 394 MW over the year, which is 32% of capacity, which is probably realistic.
The agreed wholesale price of the Hornsea energy over the next twenty-five years is £140/MWh. Even assuming a very generous load factor of 50%, Hornsea’s lifetime revenue would be about £20 billion, suggesting a ratio of revenue to cost of 6:1 (reduced further by any maintenance costs), still barely half the average value that prevails in the global economy, which is more than 85% fossil-fuel based.
The secret of the fossil fuel success in the world economy is the high calorific value of the fuel. A ton of coal costing £42.50 produces of the order of 2000 kWh of electricity in a new coal-fired power plants (up 30% from older plants). This sells for £400 wholesale, with an energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of 10:1. A therm of natural gas costs £0.40, and produces 30 kWh of electricity, which sells for £6, representing an EROEI of 15:1. Fuel-less technologies do not have this advantage.
The disappointing results from Vindeby, and the likely results from Hornsea and similar projects must be seen in the context of the increasing wealth of a growing world population. If all the world’s 10.3 billion people alive in 2055 were to lead a European (as opposed to American) style of life, we would need 2.5 times the primary energy as used today. If, say, half of the energy is suddenly produced with an energy return on investment of 5.5:1 (i.e. half the present world average), then for the same investment we would get only 75% of the energy and we would need to cut energy consumption: the first 10% reduction could come by curtailing higher education, international air travel, the internet, advanced medicine and high culture. We could invest proportionately more of our economy in energy production than we do now, but that will still mean a step backward against the trend of the last 200 years of reducing the proportion of the total economy taken by the energy sector.[13] To avoid this undesirable scenario we would need new forms of energy to match the fossil/nuclear fuel performance.
In this context it is useful to remember that global economic growth is very sensitive to the cost of energy. The energy cost spikes in the mid-1970s and in 2010 form the boundaries between the 5% growth rate of the global economy from 1950–1975, the 3% from 1980–2008, and the 2.5% since 2012. There is a lot at stake in the choice between cheap fossil fuels and expensive renewables.
Notes
[1] http://www.dongenergy.com/en/media/newsroom/news/articles/the-worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm-is-retiring
[2] http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/vindeby-denmark-dk06.html
[3] http://www.dongenergy.com/en/media/newsroom/news/articles/the-worlds-first-offshore-wind-farm-is-retiring
[4] http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/4203486/ICT_ECEEE_2009_paper.pdf
[5] http://www.pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/pfb_decreasing_wholesale_prices_2015_11_11.pdf
[6] http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/lely-netherlands-nl27.html
[7] http://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/07/lely-wind-farm-fully-decommissioned-video/
[8] http://www.caddet-re.org/assets/no61.pdf
[9] http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2016/05/transalta-shuts-cowley-ridge-wind-farm-in-alberta-may-repower-it.html
[10] http://www.thegwpf.com/michael-kelly-a-challenge-for-renewable-energies/
[11] http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/hornsea-project-one-united-kingdom-uk81.html
[12] https://www.statista.com/statistics/517845/average-electricity-consumption-uk/
[13] Until the industrial revolution, the UK economy operated on an energy return investment of 2:1: see C. W. King, J P Maxwell and A Donovan, ‘Comparing world economic and net energy metrics, Part I: Single Technology and Commercial Perspective’ Energies 2015: 12949-74. The 2:1 ratio applies in some parts of Africa today: when half the economy is spent providing food and fuel, it leaves little over for other activities.
Changes in the Public Acceptance of Immigrants and Refugees in Germany in the Course of Europe’s ‘Immigration Crisis’
Christian S Czymara, Alexander W Schmidt-Catran; Refugees Unwelcome? Changes in the Public Acceptance of Immigrants and Refugees in Germany in the Course of Europe’s ‘Immigration Crisis’, European Sociological Review, , jcx071, https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcx071
Abstract: Based on an innovative design, combining a multi-factorial survey experiment with a longitudinal perspective, we examine changes in the public acceptance of immigrants in Germany from the beginning of the so-called ‘migration crisis’ to after the sexual assaults of New Year’s Eve (NYE) 2015/2016. In contrast to previous studies investigating similar research questions, our approach allows to differentiate changes along various immigrant characteristics. Derived from discussions making up the German immigration discourse during this time, we expect reduced acceptance especially of those immigrants who were explicitly connected to the salient events, like Muslims and the offenders of NYE. Most strikingly, we find that refugees were generally highly accepted and even more so in the second wave, whereas the acceptance of immigrants from Arab or African countries further decreased. Moreover, female respondents’ initial preference for male immigrants disappeared. Contrary to our expectations, we find no changes in the acceptance of Muslims. We conclude that (i) public opinion research is well advised to match the particular political and social context under investigation to a fitting outcome variable to adequately capture the dynamics of anti-immigrant sentiment and that (ii) the vividly discussed upper limits for refugees seem to be contrary to public demands according to our data.
Abstract: Based on an innovative design, combining a multi-factorial survey experiment with a longitudinal perspective, we examine changes in the public acceptance of immigrants in Germany from the beginning of the so-called ‘migration crisis’ to after the sexual assaults of New Year’s Eve (NYE) 2015/2016. In contrast to previous studies investigating similar research questions, our approach allows to differentiate changes along various immigrant characteristics. Derived from discussions making up the German immigration discourse during this time, we expect reduced acceptance especially of those immigrants who were explicitly connected to the salient events, like Muslims and the offenders of NYE. Most strikingly, we find that refugees were generally highly accepted and even more so in the second wave, whereas the acceptance of immigrants from Arab or African countries further decreased. Moreover, female respondents’ initial preference for male immigrants disappeared. Contrary to our expectations, we find no changes in the acceptance of Muslims. We conclude that (i) public opinion research is well advised to match the particular political and social context under investigation to a fitting outcome variable to adequately capture the dynamics of anti-immigrant sentiment and that (ii) the vividly discussed upper limits for refugees seem to be contrary to public demands according to our data.
Birth order: no meaningful effects on life satisfaction, locus of control, interpersonal trust, reciprocity, risk taking, patience, impulsivity, or political orientation
Probing Birth-Order Effects on Narrow Traits Using Specification-Curve Analysis. Julia M. Rohrer, Boris Egloff, and Stefan C. Schmukle. Psychological Science. First published date: October-17-2017. DOI 10.1177/0956797617723726
Abstract: The idea that birth-order position has a lasting impact on personality has been discussed for the past 100 years. Recent large-scale studies have indicated that birth-order effects on the Big Five personality traits are negligible. In the current study, we examined a variety of more narrow personality traits in a large representative sample (n = 6,500–10,500 in between-family analyses; n = 900–1,200 in within-family analyses). We used specification-curve analysis to assess evidence for birth-order effects across a range of models implementing defensible yet arbitrary analytical decisions (e.g., whether to control for age effects or to exclude participants on the basis of sibling spacing). Although specification-curve analysis clearly confirmed the previously reported birth-order effect on intellect, we found no meaningful effects on life satisfaction, locus of control, interpersonal trust, reciprocity, risk taking, patience, impulsivity, or political orientation. The lack of meaningful birth-order effects on self-reports of personality was not limited to broad traits but also held for more narrowly defined characteristics.
Abstract: The idea that birth-order position has a lasting impact on personality has been discussed for the past 100 years. Recent large-scale studies have indicated that birth-order effects on the Big Five personality traits are negligible. In the current study, we examined a variety of more narrow personality traits in a large representative sample (n = 6,500–10,500 in between-family analyses; n = 900–1,200 in within-family analyses). We used specification-curve analysis to assess evidence for birth-order effects across a range of models implementing defensible yet arbitrary analytical decisions (e.g., whether to control for age effects or to exclude participants on the basis of sibling spacing). Although specification-curve analysis clearly confirmed the previously reported birth-order effect on intellect, we found no meaningful effects on life satisfaction, locus of control, interpersonal trust, reciprocity, risk taking, patience, impulsivity, or political orientation. The lack of meaningful birth-order effects on self-reports of personality was not limited to broad traits but also held for more narrowly defined characteristics.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
