Room for discretion? Biased decision-making in international financial institutions. Valentin Lang & Andrea Presbitero. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 130, January 2018, Pages 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.09.001
Abstract: We exploit the degree of discretion embedded in the World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) to understand the decision-making process of international financial institutions. The unique, internal dataset we use covers the universe of debt sustainability analyses conducted between December 2006 and January 2015 for low-income countries. These data allow us to identify cases where the risk rating implied by the application of the DSF's mechanical rules was overridden to assign a different official rating. Our results show that both political interests and bureaucratic incentives influence the decision to intervene in the mechanical decision-making process. Countries that are politically aligned with the institutions' major shareholders are more likely to receive an improved rating; especially in election years and when the mechanical assessment is not clear-cut. These results suggest that the room for discretion international financial institutions have can be a channel for informal governance and a source of biased decision-making.
Keywords: International organizations; Political economy; IMF; World Bank; Debt sustainability
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Teaching personal initiative beats traditional training in boosting small business
Teaching personal initiative beats traditional training in boosting small business in West Africa. Francisco Campos et al. Science, Sep 22 2017, Vol. 357, Issue 6357, pp. 1287-1290. DOI: 10.1126/science.aan5329
Abstract: Standard business training programs aim to boost the incomes of the millions of self-employed business owners in developing countries by teaching basic financial and marketing practices, yet the impacts of such programs are mixed. We tested whether a psychology-based personal initiative training approach, which teaches a proactive mindset and focuses on entrepreneurial behaviors, could have more success. A randomized controlled trial in Togo assigned microenterprise owners to a control group (n = 500), a leading business training program (n = 500), or a personal initiative training program (n = 500). Four follow-up surveys tracked outcomes for firms over 2 years and showed that personal initiative training increased firm profits by 30%, compared with a statistically insignificant 11% for traditional training. The training is cost-effective, paying for itself within 1 year.
Abstract: Standard business training programs aim to boost the incomes of the millions of self-employed business owners in developing countries by teaching basic financial and marketing practices, yet the impacts of such programs are mixed. We tested whether a psychology-based personal initiative training approach, which teaches a proactive mindset and focuses on entrepreneurial behaviors, could have more success. A randomized controlled trial in Togo assigned microenterprise owners to a control group (n = 500), a leading business training program (n = 500), or a personal initiative training program (n = 500). Four follow-up surveys tracked outcomes for firms over 2 years and showed that personal initiative training increased firm profits by 30%, compared with a statistically insignificant 11% for traditional training. The training is cost-effective, paying for itself within 1 year.
Beyond questionable research methods: The role of omitted relevant research in the credibility of research
Schmidt, Frank L. (2017). Beyond questionable research methods: The role of omitted relevant research in the credibility of research. Archives of Scientific Psychology, 5(1), 32-41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/arc0000033
ABSTRACT: Governments often base social intervention programs on studies done by psychologists and other social scientists. Often these studies fail to mention other research suggesting that such interventions may have a limited chance of actually working. The omitted research that is not mentioned often shows that the behaviors and performances targeted for improvement by the environmental intervention programs are mostly caused by genetic differences between people and for that reason may be more difficult to change than implied in these studies. This is particularly true when the goal is to greatly reduce or eliminate differences between people in such domains as school achievement, impulsive behaviors, or intelligence. This problem of omitted research creates two problems. It tends to call into question the credibility of all social science research, even the studies that do not omit relevant research. And from an applied point of view, it leads to the expenditure of taxpayer dollars on programs that are unlikely to produce the desired outcomes.
SCIENTIFIC ABSTRACT: This article explores an important credibility problem in the research literature beyond the issue of questionable data analysis methods: the problem of omission of relevant previous research in published research articles. This article focuses on this problem in 2 areas: (a) studies purporting to demonstrate the effects of people’s experiences on their later life outcomes while failing to discuss or mention the probable causal role of genetic inheritance in producing these effects, despite the strong evidence for this connection from behavior genetics research; and (b) studies of specific aptitudes (specific abilities) such as verbal, spatial, or reasoning that fail to acknowledge or mention that such aptitudes are indicator variables for general mental ability (GMA; or intelligence) and that after proper control for GMA the residuals in these aptitudes make essentially no contribution to prediction of real world academic, occupational, or job performance. It is only the GMA component in such aptitudes that produces the ability to predict. As is well known today, the issue of the credibility of research conclusions is prominent (Ioannidis, 2005). In both the areas examined in this article, these deficiencies create serious and unnecessary credibility problems, and the doubts they inspire about credibility could unfortunately be generalized to other research areas in which these problems do not exist.
KEYWORDS: research credibility, behavior genetics, general mental ability, intelligence, specific abilities
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The purpose of this article is to draw attention to an important problem in the research literature beyond the issue of questionable statistical data analysis methods in research. That is the problem of the omission of relevant research findings in published research articles. This article has focused on this problem in two areas. The first area consists of studies purporting to demonstrate the effects of people’s experiences on their life outcomes. Many studies drawing causal conclusions about these experiences fail to mention the probable causal role of genetic inheritance in producing these effects, despite the overwhelming evidence for this connection from behavior genetics research. The second area consists of studies of specific aptitudes (specific abilities) such as verbal, quantitative, and spatial, or reasoning. Many such studies fail to acknowledge or even mention that such aptitudes are indicator variables for GMA and that after proper control for GMA the residuals in these aptitudes make essentially no contribution to prediction of real world academic, occupational, or job performance. It is only the GMA component in such aptitudes that produces the ability to predict.
A reviewer suggested that research areas beyond the two examined in this article should be addressed. However, the first area examined here is very broad and includes research in many areas and specialties of psychology and the social sciences. These include the research areas of academic achievement, aggressive behavior, abusive behavior within families, failure in intimate relationships, authoritative versus authoritarian parenting, effects of parental reading on children, later effects of self-control displayed in childhood, and effects of personality traits on behaviors and perceptions. These multiple areas of research are all observational or correlational. Areas of experimental research are not included because (in theory) randomization of subject assignment controls for hidden or unrecognized causal variables (lurking variables; Joiner, 1981). However, experimental psychology research as typically found in the literature, although not subject to the problems examined in this article, has other serious problems; for example, see Schmidt and Oh (2016). In addition, Jussim, Crawford, Anglin, Stevens, and Duarte (2016) discussed the tendency in experimental social psychology for researchers to fail to consider alternative and plausible interpretations of their findings and pointed out that this omission reduces the credibility of their research conclusions.
The issue of the credibility of research conclusions is prominent today (Ioannidis, 2005). In both the areas examined in this article, these deficiencies create serious and unnecessary credibility problems, and the doubts they inspire about research credibility could unfortunately be generalized inappropriately to other research areas in which these problems do not exist. So it is important that this problem be addressed and corrected.
However, it is also important not to leave the impression that all studies have these problems. Studies can be found that are exemplary. One example is the study by Dinescu et al. (2016). This study examined the hypothesis that when people marry, their level of alcohol consumption decreases. They acknowledged that marriage per se might not be the causal variable and that people who marry might be genetically different from those who do not. So they controlled for genetic effects using a sample of 1,703 monozygotic and 722 dizygotic twins. Their results showed the even after controlling for genetic effects, people drank less after marriage than they had before marriage. Another exemplary study is Gotlib et al. (2015). This study found that apparently healthy women whose mothers suffered from depression had shorter telomeres and greater cortisol reactivity to stress than did women whose mothers had never been depressed. They acknowledged that this effect could be genetic or environmental or both, and they called for research to determine the relative contributions of genetic and environmental causes. There is another particularly important example. For over 25 years, Terrie Moffitt and Avshalom Caspi have conducted longitudinal research studies that have taken into account both genetic and environmental contributions to human behaviors. And in 2016 they received the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award for this work from the American Psychological Association (Award for Distinguished Scientific Contributions, 2016). These and other examples in the literature show that it is possible to conduct research of the type called for in this article.
The hope is that the information presented in this article will lead to recognition in the literature of the role of behavior genetics findings in studies interpreting relationships between experiences and later life outcomes; and to recognition of the central role of GMA in studies examining specific aptitudes and abilities. At present the literatures in these two areas contain many studies that are scientifically incomplete. These changes are important for establishment of the credibility of research conclusions in these areas and may help to deter credibility losses across other areas of research.
ABSTRACT: Governments often base social intervention programs on studies done by psychologists and other social scientists. Often these studies fail to mention other research suggesting that such interventions may have a limited chance of actually working. The omitted research that is not mentioned often shows that the behaviors and performances targeted for improvement by the environmental intervention programs are mostly caused by genetic differences between people and for that reason may be more difficult to change than implied in these studies. This is particularly true when the goal is to greatly reduce or eliminate differences between people in such domains as school achievement, impulsive behaviors, or intelligence. This problem of omitted research creates two problems. It tends to call into question the credibility of all social science research, even the studies that do not omit relevant research. And from an applied point of view, it leads to the expenditure of taxpayer dollars on programs that are unlikely to produce the desired outcomes.
SCIENTIFIC ABSTRACT: This article explores an important credibility problem in the research literature beyond the issue of questionable data analysis methods: the problem of omission of relevant previous research in published research articles. This article focuses on this problem in 2 areas: (a) studies purporting to demonstrate the effects of people’s experiences on their later life outcomes while failing to discuss or mention the probable causal role of genetic inheritance in producing these effects, despite the strong evidence for this connection from behavior genetics research; and (b) studies of specific aptitudes (specific abilities) such as verbal, spatial, or reasoning that fail to acknowledge or mention that such aptitudes are indicator variables for general mental ability (GMA; or intelligence) and that after proper control for GMA the residuals in these aptitudes make essentially no contribution to prediction of real world academic, occupational, or job performance. It is only the GMA component in such aptitudes that produces the ability to predict. As is well known today, the issue of the credibility of research conclusions is prominent (Ioannidis, 2005). In both the areas examined in this article, these deficiencies create serious and unnecessary credibility problems, and the doubts they inspire about credibility could unfortunately be generalized to other research areas in which these problems do not exist.
KEYWORDS: research credibility, behavior genetics, general mental ability, intelligence, specific abilities
---
The purpose of this article is to draw attention to an important problem in the research literature beyond the issue of questionable statistical data analysis methods in research. That is the problem of the omission of relevant research findings in published research articles. This article has focused on this problem in two areas. The first area consists of studies purporting to demonstrate the effects of people’s experiences on their life outcomes. Many studies drawing causal conclusions about these experiences fail to mention the probable causal role of genetic inheritance in producing these effects, despite the overwhelming evidence for this connection from behavior genetics research. The second area consists of studies of specific aptitudes (specific abilities) such as verbal, quantitative, and spatial, or reasoning. Many such studies fail to acknowledge or even mention that such aptitudes are indicator variables for GMA and that after proper control for GMA the residuals in these aptitudes make essentially no contribution to prediction of real world academic, occupational, or job performance. It is only the GMA component in such aptitudes that produces the ability to predict.
A reviewer suggested that research areas beyond the two examined in this article should be addressed. However, the first area examined here is very broad and includes research in many areas and specialties of psychology and the social sciences. These include the research areas of academic achievement, aggressive behavior, abusive behavior within families, failure in intimate relationships, authoritative versus authoritarian parenting, effects of parental reading on children, later effects of self-control displayed in childhood, and effects of personality traits on behaviors and perceptions. These multiple areas of research are all observational or correlational. Areas of experimental research are not included because (in theory) randomization of subject assignment controls for hidden or unrecognized causal variables (lurking variables; Joiner, 1981). However, experimental psychology research as typically found in the literature, although not subject to the problems examined in this article, has other serious problems; for example, see Schmidt and Oh (2016). In addition, Jussim, Crawford, Anglin, Stevens, and Duarte (2016) discussed the tendency in experimental social psychology for researchers to fail to consider alternative and plausible interpretations of their findings and pointed out that this omission reduces the credibility of their research conclusions.
The issue of the credibility of research conclusions is prominent today (Ioannidis, 2005). In both the areas examined in this article, these deficiencies create serious and unnecessary credibility problems, and the doubts they inspire about research credibility could unfortunately be generalized inappropriately to other research areas in which these problems do not exist. So it is important that this problem be addressed and corrected.
However, it is also important not to leave the impression that all studies have these problems. Studies can be found that are exemplary. One example is the study by Dinescu et al. (2016). This study examined the hypothesis that when people marry, their level of alcohol consumption decreases. They acknowledged that marriage per se might not be the causal variable and that people who marry might be genetically different from those who do not. So they controlled for genetic effects using a sample of 1,703 monozygotic and 722 dizygotic twins. Their results showed the even after controlling for genetic effects, people drank less after marriage than they had before marriage. Another exemplary study is Gotlib et al. (2015). This study found that apparently healthy women whose mothers suffered from depression had shorter telomeres and greater cortisol reactivity to stress than did women whose mothers had never been depressed. They acknowledged that this effect could be genetic or environmental or both, and they called for research to determine the relative contributions of genetic and environmental causes. There is another particularly important example. For over 25 years, Terrie Moffitt and Avshalom Caspi have conducted longitudinal research studies that have taken into account both genetic and environmental contributions to human behaviors. And in 2016 they received the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award for this work from the American Psychological Association (Award for Distinguished Scientific Contributions, 2016). These and other examples in the literature show that it is possible to conduct research of the type called for in this article.
The hope is that the information presented in this article will lead to recognition in the literature of the role of behavior genetics findings in studies interpreting relationships between experiences and later life outcomes; and to recognition of the central role of GMA in studies examining specific aptitudes and abilities. At present the literatures in these two areas contain many studies that are scientifically incomplete. These changes are important for establishment of the credibility of research conclusions in these areas and may help to deter credibility losses across other areas of research.
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Twin-killing in some traditional societies: An economic perspective
Twin-killing in some traditional societies: An economic perspective. Andrés Marroquín & Colleen Haight. Journal of Bioeconomics, October 2017, October 2017, Volume 19, Issue 3, pp 261–279. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10818-017-9249-8
Abstract: Historically, some societies around the world killed newborn twins, though the practice was forsaken in the early twentieth century. Anthropologists have proposed different theses: (1) the delivery of twins occurred when the mother cheated on her husband, or committed a great sin, and killing the twins was the penalty, (2) twin-killing was done to assert that human beings were different from animals among which multiple births in the same delivery were seen, (3) twins brought a dilemma to the kinship structure of societies and to cope with it different rules were adopted, twin-killing being the extreme one, (4) twin-killing was a means to face resource stress. We argue that although those interpretations are useful, we can improve the understanding of that phenomenon by adding an identity economics model, where twins are a taboo. Identity economics helps us explain the persistence of the practice and its eventual decline. We make our case with examples from the Igbo of Nigeria.
Abstract: Historically, some societies around the world killed newborn twins, though the practice was forsaken in the early twentieth century. Anthropologists have proposed different theses: (1) the delivery of twins occurred when the mother cheated on her husband, or committed a great sin, and killing the twins was the penalty, (2) twin-killing was done to assert that human beings were different from animals among which multiple births in the same delivery were seen, (3) twins brought a dilemma to the kinship structure of societies and to cope with it different rules were adopted, twin-killing being the extreme one, (4) twin-killing was a means to face resource stress. We argue that although those interpretations are useful, we can improve the understanding of that phenomenon by adding an identity economics model, where twins are a taboo. Identity economics helps us explain the persistence of the practice and its eventual decline. We make our case with examples from the Igbo of Nigeria.
No evidence that preferences for facial masculinity track changes in women's hormonal status
No evidence that preferences for facial masculinity track changes in women's hormonal status. Benedict C. Jones, Amanda C. Hahn, Claire I. Fisher, Hongyi Wang, Michal Kandrik, Chengyang Han, Vanessa Fasolt, Danielle Morrison, Iris J. Holzleitner, Kieran J. O'Shea, Craig Roberts, Anthony C. Little, Lisa M. DeBruine. Available at bioRxiv 136549; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/136549
Abstract: Although widely cited as strong evidence that sexual selection has shaped human facial attractiveness judgments, evidence that preferences for masculine characteristics in men's faces are related to women's hormonal status is equivocal and controversial. Consequently, we conducted the largest ever longitudinal study of the hormonal correlates of women's preferences for facial masculinity (N=584). Analyses showed no evidence that preferences for facial masculinity were related to changes in women's salivary steroid hormone levels. Furthermore, both within-subject and between-subject comparisons showed no evidence that oral contraceptive use decreased masculinity preferences. However, women generally preferred masculinized over feminized versions of men's faces, particularly when assessing men's attractiveness for short-term, rather than long-term, relationships. Our results do not support the hypothesized link between women's preferences for facial masculinity and their hormonal status.
Abstract: Although widely cited as strong evidence that sexual selection has shaped human facial attractiveness judgments, evidence that preferences for masculine characteristics in men's faces are related to women's hormonal status is equivocal and controversial. Consequently, we conducted the largest ever longitudinal study of the hormonal correlates of women's preferences for facial masculinity (N=584). Analyses showed no evidence that preferences for facial masculinity were related to changes in women's salivary steroid hormone levels. Furthermore, both within-subject and between-subject comparisons showed no evidence that oral contraceptive use decreased masculinity preferences. However, women generally preferred masculinized over feminized versions of men's faces, particularly when assessing men's attractiveness for short-term, rather than long-term, relationships. Our results do not support the hypothesized link between women's preferences for facial masculinity and their hormonal status.
More lumbar curvature increased perception of attractiveness of girls, men looked longer & fixated more on the hip region
Pazhoohi, F., Doyle, J.F., Macedo, A.F. et al. Evolutionary Psychological Science (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40806-017-0123-7
Abstract: It is common in studies of human mate preference to have participants judge the attractiveness of photographs in which models adopt a neutral facial expression or a neutral body posture. However, it is unlikely that humans adopt neutral expressions and postures in normal social circumstances. One way in which posture can vary is in the curvature of the lower spine. In some non-human animals, a “lordotic” posture (in which the lower spine is curved towards the belly) is associated in females with readiness to mate. In humans, this posture may serve a similar function, attracting heterosexual men. In this study, participants were presented with computer-generated images of female bodies in which the back curvature was systematically manipulated. The result showed that small changes in lumbar curvature are associated with changes in the perception of attractiveness. Specifically, the result showed that there is a relationship between the range of the back curvatures used in this study and attractiveness, such that increasing the curvature increased the perception of attractiveness. Additionally, as the curvature increased, participants looked longer and fixated more on the hip region of the female bodies. This paper argues that the attractiveness of women in lordotic posture is due to a conserved mechanism across the taxa which signals proceptivity to men.
Check also: Behavioral display of lumbar curvature in response to the opposite sex. Zeynep Şenveli Bilkent University, Graduate Program in Neuroscience - Master's degree thesis. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/behavioral-display-of-lumbar-curvature.html
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Carl J. Armstrong Jr.'s comment on this >>> Counter-explanation: Lumbar curvature may be a critical factor in mobility during late pregnancy. Lordotic posture--demonstrating lumbar mobility--may signal healthy mobility during reproduction.
Likewise, given that spinal asymmetry drives breast asymmetry, breast fullness and symmetry may also indicate part of the same mobility-during-pregnancy by telegraphing spinal health and motility....
Abstract: It is common in studies of human mate preference to have participants judge the attractiveness of photographs in which models adopt a neutral facial expression or a neutral body posture. However, it is unlikely that humans adopt neutral expressions and postures in normal social circumstances. One way in which posture can vary is in the curvature of the lower spine. In some non-human animals, a “lordotic” posture (in which the lower spine is curved towards the belly) is associated in females with readiness to mate. In humans, this posture may serve a similar function, attracting heterosexual men. In this study, participants were presented with computer-generated images of female bodies in which the back curvature was systematically manipulated. The result showed that small changes in lumbar curvature are associated with changes in the perception of attractiveness. Specifically, the result showed that there is a relationship between the range of the back curvatures used in this study and attractiveness, such that increasing the curvature increased the perception of attractiveness. Additionally, as the curvature increased, participants looked longer and fixated more on the hip region of the female bodies. This paper argues that the attractiveness of women in lordotic posture is due to a conserved mechanism across the taxa which signals proceptivity to men.
Check also: Behavioral display of lumbar curvature in response to the opposite sex. Zeynep Şenveli Bilkent University, Graduate Program in Neuroscience - Master's degree thesis. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/behavioral-display-of-lumbar-curvature.html
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Carl J. Armstrong Jr.'s comment on this >>> Counter-explanation: Lumbar curvature may be a critical factor in mobility during late pregnancy. Lordotic posture--demonstrating lumbar mobility--may signal healthy mobility during reproduction.
Likewise, given that spinal asymmetry drives breast asymmetry, breast fullness and symmetry may also indicate part of the same mobility-during-pregnancy by telegraphing spinal health and motility....
New evidence that ageing societies become more risk-averse
Global Evidence on Economic Preferences. Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, David B. Huffman, Uwe Sunde. NBER Working Paper No. 23943. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23943
Abstract: This paper studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey dataset of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust from 80,000 individuals in 76 countries. The data reveal substantial heterogeneity in preferences across countries, but even larger within-country heterogeneity. Across individuals, preferences vary with age, gender, and cognitive ability, yet these relationships appear partly country specific. At the country level, the data reveal correlations between preferences and bio-geographic and cultural variables such as agricultural suitability, language structure, and religion. Variation in preferences is also correlated with economic outcomes and behaviors. Within countries and subnational regions, preferences are linked to individual savings decisions, labor market choices, and prosocial behaviors. Across countries, preferences vary with aggregate outcomes ranging from per capita income, to entrepreneurial activities, to the frequency of armed conflicts.
Abstract: This paper studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey dataset of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust from 80,000 individuals in 76 countries. The data reveal substantial heterogeneity in preferences across countries, but even larger within-country heterogeneity. Across individuals, preferences vary with age, gender, and cognitive ability, yet these relationships appear partly country specific. At the country level, the data reveal correlations between preferences and bio-geographic and cultural variables such as agricultural suitability, language structure, and religion. Variation in preferences is also correlated with economic outcomes and behaviors. Within countries and subnational regions, preferences are linked to individual savings decisions, labor market choices, and prosocial behaviors. Across countries, preferences vary with aggregate outcomes ranging from per capita income, to entrepreneurial activities, to the frequency of armed conflicts.
More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates
Hohle, S. M., and Teigen, K. H. (2017) More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates. J. Behav. Dec. Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2052
Abstract: Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower or upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast can describe La Niña as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate-related forecasts expressed with lower-bound (“over X% chance”) or upper-bound (“under Y% chance”) probability statements. Results indicate that such single-bound statements give pragmatic information in addition to the numeric probabilities they convey. First, the studies show that these statements are directional, leading the listeners' attention in opposite directions. “Over” statements guide attention towards the possible occurrence of the event and are explained by reasons for why it might happen, while “under” statements direct attention to its possible non-occurrence and are more often explained by reasons for why the target event might not appear, corresponding to positive (it is possible) versus negative (it is uncertain) verbal probabilities. Second, boundaries were found to reveal the forecaster's beliefs and could be perceived as indicative of an increasing or a decreasing trend. Single-bound probability estimates are therefore not neutral communications of probability level but might “leak” information about the speaker's expectations and about past and future developments of the forecast.
Abstract: Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower or upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast can describe La Niña as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate-related forecasts expressed with lower-bound (“over X% chance”) or upper-bound (“under Y% chance”) probability statements. Results indicate that such single-bound statements give pragmatic information in addition to the numeric probabilities they convey. First, the studies show that these statements are directional, leading the listeners' attention in opposite directions. “Over” statements guide attention towards the possible occurrence of the event and are explained by reasons for why it might happen, while “under” statements direct attention to its possible non-occurrence and are more often explained by reasons for why the target event might not appear, corresponding to positive (it is possible) versus negative (it is uncertain) verbal probabilities. Second, boundaries were found to reveal the forecaster's beliefs and could be perceived as indicative of an increasing or a decreasing trend. Single-bound probability estimates are therefore not neutral communications of probability level but might “leak” information about the speaker's expectations and about past and future developments of the forecast.
In economics, 42% of papers that were published as replication studies successfully replicated another experiment
Maniadis, Z., Tufano, F. and List, J. A. (2017), To Replicate or Not To Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study. Econ J, 127: F209–F235. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12527
Abstract: The sciences are in an era of an alleged ‘credibility crisis’. In this study, we discuss the reproducibility of empirical results, focusing on economics research. By combining theory and empirical evidence, we discuss the import of replication studies and whether they improve our confidence in novel findings. The theory sheds light on the importance of replications, even when replications are subject to bias. We then present a pilot meta-study of replication in experimental economics, a subfield serving as a positive benchmark for investigating the credibility of economics. Our meta-study highlights certain difficulties when applying meta-research to systematise the economics literature.
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Concerning the replication results themselves, an interesting insight is that we found a ‘success rate’, based on 85 replications, of 42.3%. This means that roughly 40% of papers that were published as replication studies successfully replicated another experiment. This is somewhat higher than the outcome of the recent large-scale replication initiative from psychology (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) and Duvendack et al. (2015), which both found a success rate of about a third, while, also in psychology, Makel et al. (2012) found a very high success rate of 73%.
Abstract: The sciences are in an era of an alleged ‘credibility crisis’. In this study, we discuss the reproducibility of empirical results, focusing on economics research. By combining theory and empirical evidence, we discuss the import of replication studies and whether they improve our confidence in novel findings. The theory sheds light on the importance of replications, even when replications are subject to bias. We then present a pilot meta-study of replication in experimental economics, a subfield serving as a positive benchmark for investigating the credibility of economics. Our meta-study highlights certain difficulties when applying meta-research to systematise the economics literature.
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Concerning the replication results themselves, an interesting insight is that we found a ‘success rate’, based on 85 replications, of 42.3%. This means that roughly 40% of papers that were published as replication studies successfully replicated another experiment. This is somewhat higher than the outcome of the recent large-scale replication initiative from psychology (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) and Duvendack et al. (2015), which both found a success rate of about a third, while, also in psychology, Makel et al. (2012) found a very high success rate of 73%.
Small decline in overall narcissism, leadership, vanity & entitlement levels in college students from the 1990s to the 2010s
The Narcissism Epidemic Is Dead; Long Live the Narcissism Epidemic. Eunike Wetzel et al.
Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617724208
Abstract: Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (1990s: N = 1,166; 2000s: N = 33,647; 2010s: N = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific facets) have increased across generations. We also tested whether our measure, the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI), showed measurement equivalence across the three cohorts, a critical analysis that had been overlooked in prior research. We found that several NPI items were not equivalent across cohorts. Models accounting for nonequivalence of these items indicated a small decline in overall narcissism levels from the 1990s to the 2010s (d = −0.27). At the facet level, leadership (d = −0.20), vanity (d = −0.16), and entitlement (d = −0.28) all showed decreases. Our results contradict the claim that recent cohorts of college students are more narcissistic than earlier generations of college students.
Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617724208
Abstract: Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (1990s: N = 1,166; 2000s: N = 33,647; 2010s: N = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific facets) have increased across generations. We also tested whether our measure, the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI), showed measurement equivalence across the three cohorts, a critical analysis that had been overlooked in prior research. We found that several NPI items were not equivalent across cohorts. Models accounting for nonequivalence of these items indicated a small decline in overall narcissism levels from the 1990s to the 2010s (d = −0.27). At the facet level, leadership (d = −0.20), vanity (d = −0.16), and entitlement (d = −0.28) all showed decreases. Our results contradict the claim that recent cohorts of college students are more narcissistic than earlier generations of college students.
A glass of wine is spoilt by a single D. melanogaster fly falling into it
The scent of the fly. Paul G. Becher, Sebastien Lebreton, Erika A. Wallin, Erik Hedenstrom, Felipe Borrero-Echeverry, Marie Bengtsson, Volker Jorger, View ORCID ProfilePeter Witzgall. bioRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/206375
Abstract: (Z)-4-undecenal (Z4-11Al) is the volatile pheromone produced by females of the vinegar fly Drosophila melanogaster. Female flies emit Z4-11Al at few nanograms per hour, for species-specific communication and mate-finding. Tests with synthetic Z4-11Al show that it has a characteristic off-flavour, which we perceive even at the small amounts produced by one female fly. Since only females produce Z4-11Al, and not males, we can reliably distinguish between single D. melanogaster males and females, according to their scent. A wine-tasting panel finds that we sense as little as 1 ng synthetic Z4-11Al in a glass of wine, and 10 ng Z4-11Al is perceived as a loud off-flavour. This corroborates the observation that a glass of wine is spoilt by a single D. melanogaster fly falling into it, which we here show is caused by Z4-11Al. The biological role of Z4-11Al or structurally related aldehydes in humans and the basis for this semiochemical convergence remains yet unclear.
Abstract: (Z)-4-undecenal (Z4-11Al) is the volatile pheromone produced by females of the vinegar fly Drosophila melanogaster. Female flies emit Z4-11Al at few nanograms per hour, for species-specific communication and mate-finding. Tests with synthetic Z4-11Al show that it has a characteristic off-flavour, which we perceive even at the small amounts produced by one female fly. Since only females produce Z4-11Al, and not males, we can reliably distinguish between single D. melanogaster males and females, according to their scent. A wine-tasting panel finds that we sense as little as 1 ng synthetic Z4-11Al in a glass of wine, and 10 ng Z4-11Al is perceived as a loud off-flavour. This corroborates the observation that a glass of wine is spoilt by a single D. melanogaster fly falling into it, which we here show is caused by Z4-11Al. The biological role of Z4-11Al or structurally related aldehydes in humans and the basis for this semiochemical convergence remains yet unclear.
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Can we change our biased minds?
Can we change our biased minds? Michael Gross. Current Biology, Volume 27, Issue 20, 23 October 2017, Pages R1089–R1091. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.10.013
Summary: A simple test taken by millions of people reveals that virtually everybody has implicit biases that they are unaware of and that may clash with their explicit beliefs. From policing to scientific publishing, all activities that deal with people are at risk of making wrong decisions due to bias. Raising awareness is the first step towards improving the outcomes.
Check this: Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html
And: Wisdom and how to cultivate it: Review of emerging evidence for a constructivist model of wise thinking. Igor Grossmann. European Psychologist, in press. Pre-print: http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/wisdom-and-how-to-cultivate-it-review.html
Summary: A simple test taken by millions of people reveals that virtually everybody has implicit biases that they are unaware of and that may clash with their explicit beliefs. From policing to scientific publishing, all activities that deal with people are at risk of making wrong decisions due to bias. Raising awareness is the first step towards improving the outcomes.
Check this: Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html
And: Wisdom and how to cultivate it: Review of emerging evidence for a constructivist model of wise thinking. Igor Grossmann. European Psychologist, in press. Pre-print: http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/wisdom-and-how-to-cultivate-it-review.html
Nearly 80% of the reported effects in empirical economics literatures are exaggerated, typically by a factor of two
Ioannidis, J. P. A., Stanley, T. D. and Doucouliagos, H. (2017), The Power of Bias in Economics Research. Econ J, 127: F236–F265. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12461
Abstract: We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power ≥ 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more.
Abstract: We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power ≥ 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more.
Pairs in which the partners do not share a social bond with each other behave less ethically than individuals do
Stranger Danger: When and Why Consumer Dyads Behave Less Ethically Than Individuals. Hristina Nikolova Cait Lamberton Nicole Verrochi Coleman. Journal of Consumer Research, ucx108, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucx108
Abstract: While joint ethical violations are fairly common in the marketplace, workplace, sports teams, and academic settings, little research has studied such collaborative wrongdoings. This work compares the joint ethical decisions of pairs of people (i.e., dyads) to those of individual decision-makers. Four experiments demonstrate that dyads in which the partners do not share a social bond with each other behave less ethically than individuals do. The authors propose that this effect occurs because joint ethical violations offer a means to socially bond with others. Consistent with this theory, they demonstrate that the dyads’ sub-ethicality relative to individuals is attenuated (1) if the dyad partners establish rapport prior to the joint decision-making, and (2) in decision-making contexts in which social bonding goals are less active, that making a decision with an out-group versus in-group member. Taken together, this research provides novel theoretical insights into the social aspects of unethical behavior, offers suggestions to improve ethicality in joint decisions, and raises important questions for future research.
Keywords: unethical decisions, cheating, ethical, dyads, joint decision-making, social bonding
Abstract: While joint ethical violations are fairly common in the marketplace, workplace, sports teams, and academic settings, little research has studied such collaborative wrongdoings. This work compares the joint ethical decisions of pairs of people (i.e., dyads) to those of individual decision-makers. Four experiments demonstrate that dyads in which the partners do not share a social bond with each other behave less ethically than individuals do. The authors propose that this effect occurs because joint ethical violations offer a means to socially bond with others. Consistent with this theory, they demonstrate that the dyads’ sub-ethicality relative to individuals is attenuated (1) if the dyad partners establish rapport prior to the joint decision-making, and (2) in decision-making contexts in which social bonding goals are less active, that making a decision with an out-group versus in-group member. Taken together, this research provides novel theoretical insights into the social aspects of unethical behavior, offers suggestions to improve ethicality in joint decisions, and raises important questions for future research.
Keywords: unethical decisions, cheating, ethical, dyads, joint decision-making, social bonding
Smaller & less centralized schools, & schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share
Social Capital and Labor Market Networks. Brian J. Asquith, Judith K. Hellerstein, Mark J. Kutzbach, David Neumark. NBER Working Paper No. 23959, www.nber.org/papers/w23959
Abstract: We explore the links between social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer-employee data with which we measure the strength of labor market networks, data on behavior such as voting patterns that have previously been tied to social capital, and new data – not previously used in the study of social capital – on the number and location of non-profits at the neighborhood level. We use a machine learning algorithm to identify potential social capital measures that best predict neighborhood-level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of non-profit oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, schools, country clubs, and amateur or recreational sports teams or clubs.
Abstract: We explore the links between social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer-employee data with which we measure the strength of labor market networks, data on behavior such as voting patterns that have previously been tied to social capital, and new data – not previously used in the study of social capital – on the number and location of non-profits at the neighborhood level. We use a machine learning algorithm to identify potential social capital measures that best predict neighborhood-level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of non-profit oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, schools, country clubs, and amateur or recreational sports teams or clubs.
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