Well-Being, Personal Success and Business Performance Among Entrepreneurs: A Two-Wave Study. Josette Dijkhuizen et al. Journal of Happiness Studies, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-017-9914-6
Abstract: This two-wave longitudinal study among 121 entrepreneurs in The Netherlands investigated bi-directional relationships between entrepreneurs’ well-being and performance. Results of Smart PLS analyses showed positive well-being at Time 1 (work engagement; life satisfaction; and job satisfaction) predicted subjective entrepreneurial success 2 years later, both as indicated by entrepreneurs’ reports of achieved financial success (including personal income security and wealth, business turn-over, sales and profit growth), as well as perceptions of achieved personal success (personal fulfilment, community impact and employee relations). No relations were found with objective indicators of business performance (profit; turnover; and number of employees) over time. The expected recursive relationship between performance and well-being was only found in the short term; a better objective financial situation immediately preceding the second measurement moment, predicted better well-being at T2. These results are both in line with a well-being–performance (gain) cycle, and the happiness set-point thesis that predicts resilience in the face of events. This paper contributes to the literature by emphasizing the importance of entrepreneurs’ well-being as a key factor in long-term subjective financial and personal entrepreneurial success. The practical implication is that entrepreneurs should maintain and improve their own well-being to achieve positive long term business outcomes.
My comment: Entrepreneurs' subjective success is not related to objective business performance over time.
Monday, September 11, 2017
Sunday, September 10, 2017
Epidemiology and prosecution of sexual violence against women in Germany
Epidemiology and prosecution of sexual violence against women in Germany (Epidemiologie und Strafverfolgung sexueller Gewalt gegen Frauen in Deutschland), von Deborah F. Hellmann und Christian Pfeiffer. Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform, 2015, 527 - 542 (Heft 6). https://www.jurion.de/document/show/1:7513791,0/
Abstract: Sexual victimizations are associated with severe consequences for the victims. Additionally, there is a risk of secondary victimization as well as consequences thereof, that can (in)directly result from a penal procedure and its outcome among others. According to research by the Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, the prevalence of sexual violence against women in Germany has almost halved from 1992 to 2011. However, only about one in five cases of sexual violence is made known to law enforcement agencies. Those cases, in turn, that are made known to the authorities are associated with particularly severe consequences. Data from police crime statistics and criminal prosecution statistics on the one hand indicate an increased reporting of cases of sexual violence. On the other hand, those data reveal a decline in the conviction rates in the same time period. Furthermore, according to the criminal prosecution statistics considerable regional differences of conviction rates occurred in a nationwide comparison that need to be explained. In this paper, possible causes for the presented results are described and open questions as well as possible solutions are discussed.
Keywords: Sexual violence against women, prosecution of rape, police crime statistics, criminal prosecution statistic, § 177 StGB
Abstract: Sexual victimizations are associated with severe consequences for the victims. Additionally, there is a risk of secondary victimization as well as consequences thereof, that can (in)directly result from a penal procedure and its outcome among others. According to research by the Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, the prevalence of sexual violence against women in Germany has almost halved from 1992 to 2011. However, only about one in five cases of sexual violence is made known to law enforcement agencies. Those cases, in turn, that are made known to the authorities are associated with particularly severe consequences. Data from police crime statistics and criminal prosecution statistics on the one hand indicate an increased reporting of cases of sexual violence. On the other hand, those data reveal a decline in the conviction rates in the same time period. Furthermore, according to the criminal prosecution statistics considerable regional differences of conviction rates occurred in a nationwide comparison that need to be explained. In this paper, possible causes for the presented results are described and open questions as well as possible solutions are discussed.
Keywords: Sexual violence against women, prosecution of rape, police crime statistics, criminal prosecution statistic, § 177 StGB
Increased task-related neural responses when infected may reflect a compensatory strategy or a greater social cognitive processing as a function of sickness
Experimental human endotoxemia enhances brain activity during social cognition. Jennifer S. Kullmann, Jan-Sebastian Grigoleit, Oliver T. Wolf, Harald Engler, Reiner Oberbeck, Sigrid Elsenbruch, Michael Forsting, Manfred Schedlowski, and Elke R. Gizewski. Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, Volume 9, Issue 6, June 01 2014, Pages 786–793, https://doi.org/10.1093/scan/nst049
Abstract: Acute peripheral inflammation with corresponding increases in peripheral cytokines affects neuropsychological functions and induces depression-like symptoms. However, possible effects of increased immune responses on social cognition remain unknown. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of experimentally induced acute inflammation on performance and neural responses during a social cognition task assessing Theory of Mind (ToM) ability. In this double-blind randomized crossover functional magnetic resonance imaging study, 18 healthy right-handed male volunteers received an injection of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 0.4 ng/kg) or saline, respectively. Plasma levels of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines as well as mood ratings were analyzed together with brain activation during a validated ToM task (i.e. Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test). LPS administration induced pronounced transient increases in pro- (IL-6, TNF-α) and anti-inflammatory (IL-10, IL-1ra) cytokines as well as decreases in mood. Social cognition performance was not affected by acute inflammation. However, altered neural activity was observed during the ToM task after LPS administration, reflected by increased responses in the fusiform gyrus, temporo-parietal junction, superior temporal gyrus and precuneus. The increased task-related neural responses in the LPS condition may reflect a compensatory strategy or a greater social cognitive processing as a function of sickness.
Keywords: peripheral inflammation, social cognition, fMRI, cytokines, endotoxin
Abstract: Acute peripheral inflammation with corresponding increases in peripheral cytokines affects neuropsychological functions and induces depression-like symptoms. However, possible effects of increased immune responses on social cognition remain unknown. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of experimentally induced acute inflammation on performance and neural responses during a social cognition task assessing Theory of Mind (ToM) ability. In this double-blind randomized crossover functional magnetic resonance imaging study, 18 healthy right-handed male volunteers received an injection of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 0.4 ng/kg) or saline, respectively. Plasma levels of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines as well as mood ratings were analyzed together with brain activation during a validated ToM task (i.e. Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test). LPS administration induced pronounced transient increases in pro- (IL-6, TNF-α) and anti-inflammatory (IL-10, IL-1ra) cytokines as well as decreases in mood. Social cognition performance was not affected by acute inflammation. However, altered neural activity was observed during the ToM task after LPS administration, reflected by increased responses in the fusiform gyrus, temporo-parietal junction, superior temporal gyrus and precuneus. The increased task-related neural responses in the LPS condition may reflect a compensatory strategy or a greater social cognitive processing as a function of sickness.
Keywords: peripheral inflammation, social cognition, fMRI, cytokines, endotoxin
Sunstein: Misconceptions About Nudges
Sunstein, Cass R., Misconceptions About Nudges (September 6, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3033101
Abstract: Some people believe that nudges are an insult to human agency; that nudges are based on excessive trust in government; that nudges are covert; that nudges are manipulative; that nudges exploit behavioral biases; that nudges depend on a belief that human beings are irrational; and that nudges work only at the margins and cannot accomplish much. These are misconceptions. Nudges always respect, and often promote, human agency; because nudges insist on preserving freedom of choice, they do not put excessive trust in government; nudges are generally transparent rather than covert or forms of manipulation; many nudges are educative, and even when they are not, they tend to make life simpler and more navigable; and some nudges have quite large impacts.
Keywords: nudges, behavioral economic, default rules, manipulation
Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on growth and photosynthesis of Chinese yam under different temperature regimes
Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on growth and photosynthesis of Chinese yam under different temperature regimes. Nguyen Cong Thinh, Hiroyuki Shimono, Etsushi Kumagai & Michio Kawasaki. Plant Production Science, Volume 20, 2017 - Issue 2, Pages 227-236, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1343943X.2017.1283963
Abstract: Chinese yam (‘yam’) was grown at different carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]), namely, ambient and elevated (ambient + 200 μmol mol−1), under low- and high-temperature regimes in summer and autumn, separately. For comparison, rice was also grown under these conditions. Mean air temperatures in the low- and high-temperatures were respectively 24.1 and 29.1 °C in summer experiment and 20.2 and 24.9 °C in autumn experiment. In summer experiment, yam vine length, leaf area, leaf dry weight (DW), and total DW were significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2] in both temperature regimes. Additionally, number of leaves, vine DW, and root DW were significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than under ambient [CO2] in the low-temperature regime. In autumn experiment, tuber DW was significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than under ambient [CO2] in the high-temperature regime. These results demonstrate that yam shows positive growth responses to elevated [CO2]. Analysis of variance revealed that significant effect of [CO2] × air temperature interaction on yam total DW was not detected. Elevated-to-ambient [CO2] ratios of all growth parameters in summer experiment were higher in yam than in rice. The results suggest that the contribution of elevated [CO2] is higher in yam than in rice under summer. Yam net photosynthetic rate was significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than under ambient [CO2] in both temperature regimes in summer. Elevated [CO2] significantly affected on the rate in yam but not in rice in both experiments. These findings indicate that photosynthesis responds more readily to elevated [CO2] in yam than in rice.
Keywords: Chinese yam, elevated CO2, nagaimo, photosynthesis, rice
My comment: First of all, this is not news, we already knew this for these and other cultivars. Second, referring to yam in the summer experiment, "number of leaves, vine DW, and root DW were significantly higher" means 38-61 pct for high [CO2], and 40-83pct for higher temperature + higher [CO2] (they interactuate strongly). Third, as to yam in autumn and rice in both summer and autumn, the results are positive but much smaller (7-36 pct). Fourth, not all cultivars of economic interest will grow more with higher temperatures or higher [CO2], but many do. These two, yam and rice, are important cases.
Abstract: Chinese yam (‘yam’) was grown at different carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]), namely, ambient and elevated (ambient + 200 μmol mol−1), under low- and high-temperature regimes in summer and autumn, separately. For comparison, rice was also grown under these conditions. Mean air temperatures in the low- and high-temperatures were respectively 24.1 and 29.1 °C in summer experiment and 20.2 and 24.9 °C in autumn experiment. In summer experiment, yam vine length, leaf area, leaf dry weight (DW), and total DW were significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2] in both temperature regimes. Additionally, number of leaves, vine DW, and root DW were significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than under ambient [CO2] in the low-temperature regime. In autumn experiment, tuber DW was significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than under ambient [CO2] in the high-temperature regime. These results demonstrate that yam shows positive growth responses to elevated [CO2]. Analysis of variance revealed that significant effect of [CO2] × air temperature interaction on yam total DW was not detected. Elevated-to-ambient [CO2] ratios of all growth parameters in summer experiment were higher in yam than in rice. The results suggest that the contribution of elevated [CO2] is higher in yam than in rice under summer. Yam net photosynthetic rate was significantly higher under elevated [CO2] than under ambient [CO2] in both temperature regimes in summer. Elevated [CO2] significantly affected on the rate in yam but not in rice in both experiments. These findings indicate that photosynthesis responds more readily to elevated [CO2] in yam than in rice.
Keywords: Chinese yam, elevated CO2, nagaimo, photosynthesis, rice
My comment: First of all, this is not news, we already knew this for these and other cultivars. Second, referring to yam in the summer experiment, "number of leaves, vine DW, and root DW were significantly higher" means 38-61 pct for high [CO2], and 40-83pct for higher temperature + higher [CO2] (they interactuate strongly). Third, as to yam in autumn and rice in both summer and autumn, the results are positive but much smaller (7-36 pct). Fourth, not all cultivars of economic interest will grow more with higher temperatures or higher [CO2], but many do. These two, yam and rice, are important cases.
On multi-level thinking and scientific understanding
McIntyre, M. E., 2017: On multi-level thinking and scientific understanding. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 34(10), 1150–1158, doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6283-3.
ABSTRACT: Professor Duzheng YE’s name has been familiar to me ever since my postdoctoral years at MIT with Professors Jule CHARNEY and Norman PHILLIPS, back in the late 1960s. I had the enormous pleasure of meeting Professor YE personally in 1992 in Beijing. His concern to promote the very best science and to use it well, and his thinking on multi-level orderly human activities, reminds me not only of the communication skills we need as scientists but also of the multi-level nature of science itself. Here I want to say something (a) about what science is; (b) about why multi-level thinking—and takign more than one viewpoint—is so important for scientific as well as for other forms of understanding; and (c) about what is meant, at a deep level, by “scientific understanding” and trying to communicate it, not only with lay persons but also across professional disciplines. I hope that Professor YE would approve.
Key words: communication skills, cross-disciplinary communication, scientific understanding, unconscious assumptions, multiple viewpoints, brain hemispheres, biological evolution
ABSTRACT: Professor Duzheng YE’s name has been familiar to me ever since my postdoctoral years at MIT with Professors Jule CHARNEY and Norman PHILLIPS, back in the late 1960s. I had the enormous pleasure of meeting Professor YE personally in 1992 in Beijing. His concern to promote the very best science and to use it well, and his thinking on multi-level orderly human activities, reminds me not only of the communication skills we need as scientists but also of the multi-level nature of science itself. Here I want to say something (a) about what science is; (b) about why multi-level thinking—and takign more than one viewpoint—is so important for scientific as well as for other forms of understanding; and (c) about what is meant, at a deep level, by “scientific understanding” and trying to communicate it, not only with lay persons but also across professional disciplines. I hope that Professor YE would approve.
Key words: communication skills, cross-disciplinary communication, scientific understanding, unconscious assumptions, multiple viewpoints, brain hemispheres, biological evolution
Warm Periods in the 20th Century Not Unprecedented during the Last 2000 Years
Warm Periods in the 20th Century Not Unprecedented during the Last 2000 Years. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Press Release, Aug 08, 2017. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research. Editor: Na CHEN.
http://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/201708/t20170808_181809.shtml
great deal of evidence relating to ancient climate variation is preserved in proxy data such as tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores, stalagmites, corals and historical documents, and these sources carry great significance in evaluating the 20th century warming in the context of the last two millennia.
Prof. GE Quansheng and his group from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, collected a large number of proxies and reconstructed a 2000-year temperature series in China with a 10-year resolution, enabling them to quantitatively reveal the characteristics of temperature change in China over a common era.
"We found four warm epochs, which were AD 1 to AD 200, AD 550 to AD 760, AD 950 to AD 1300, and the 20th century. Cold periods occurred between AD 210 and AD 350, AD 420 and AD 530, AD 780 and AD 940, and AD 1320 and AD 1900. The temperature amplitude between the warmest and coldest decades was 1.3°C," said Prof. GE.
The team found that the most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56 ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented in the last 2000 years, as reconstruction showed records for the period from 981 to 1100, and again from 1201 to 1270, were comparable to those of the present warm period, but with an uncertainty of ±0.28°C to ±0.42°C at the 95% confidence interval. Since 1000 CE—the period covering the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the present warm period—temperature variations over China have typically been in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
They also detected some interactions between temperature variation and precipitation change. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N; wet from 25°–30°N; and dry to the north of 30°N. For all cold periods, the ensemble mean drought/flood spatial patterns showed an east to west distribution, with flooding east of 115°E and drought dominant west of 115°E, with the exception of flooding between approximately110°E and 105°E.
The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change historically were negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods. For example, 25 of the 31 most prosperous periods in imperial China during the past 2000 years occurred during periods of warmth or warming. A cooling trend at the centennial scale and social economic decline run hand-in-hand. The rapid development supported by better resources and a better environment in warm periods could lead to an increase in social vulnerability when the climate turns once more to being relatively colder.
"Throughout China’s history," Prof. GE added, "both rulers and the ruled have adopted strategies and policies to cope with climate change, as permitted by the prevailing geography and circumstances of the time."
(Editor: CHEN Na)
http://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/201708/t20170808_181809.shtml
great deal of evidence relating to ancient climate variation is preserved in proxy data such as tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores, stalagmites, corals and historical documents, and these sources carry great significance in evaluating the 20th century warming in the context of the last two millennia.
Prof. GE Quansheng and his group from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, collected a large number of proxies and reconstructed a 2000-year temperature series in China with a 10-year resolution, enabling them to quantitatively reveal the characteristics of temperature change in China over a common era.
"We found four warm epochs, which were AD 1 to AD 200, AD 550 to AD 760, AD 950 to AD 1300, and the 20th century. Cold periods occurred between AD 210 and AD 350, AD 420 and AD 530, AD 780 and AD 940, and AD 1320 and AD 1900. The temperature amplitude between the warmest and coldest decades was 1.3°C," said Prof. GE.
The team found that the most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56 ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented in the last 2000 years, as reconstruction showed records for the period from 981 to 1100, and again from 1201 to 1270, were comparable to those of the present warm period, but with an uncertainty of ±0.28°C to ±0.42°C at the 95% confidence interval. Since 1000 CE—the period covering the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the present warm period—temperature variations over China have typically been in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
They also detected some interactions between temperature variation and precipitation change. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N; wet from 25°–30°N; and dry to the north of 30°N. For all cold periods, the ensemble mean drought/flood spatial patterns showed an east to west distribution, with flooding east of 115°E and drought dominant west of 115°E, with the exception of flooding between approximately110°E and 105°E.
The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change historically were negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods. For example, 25 of the 31 most prosperous periods in imperial China during the past 2000 years occurred during periods of warmth or warming. A cooling trend at the centennial scale and social economic decline run hand-in-hand. The rapid development supported by better resources and a better environment in warm periods could lead to an increase in social vulnerability when the climate turns once more to being relatively colder.
"Throughout China’s history," Prof. GE added, "both rulers and the ruled have adopted strategies and policies to cope with climate change, as permitted by the prevailing geography and circumstances of the time."
 |
|
2000-year temperature reconstruction in China (Image by GE Quansheng)
|
Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe
G.A. Hodgkins et al., Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/31/flooding-not-increasing-in-north-america-and-europe-new-study-confirms/
Abstract
Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. ***Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends.*** There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends. […]Is procedural memory enhanced in Tourette syndrome?
Is procedural memory enhanced in Tourette syndrome? Evidence from a sequence learning task. Ádám Takács et al. Cortex, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2017.08.037
Abstract: Procedural memory, which is rooted in the basal ganglia, underlies the learning and processing of numerous automatized motor and cognitive skills, including in language. Not surprisingly, disorders with basal ganglia abnormalities have been found to show impairments of procedural memory. However, brain abnormalities could also lead to atypically enhanced function. Tourette syndrome (TS) is a candidate for enhanced procedural memory, given previous findings of enhanced TS processing of grammar, which likely depends on procedural memory. We comprehensively examined procedural learning, from memory formation to retention, in children with TS and typically developing (TD) children, who performed an implicit sequence learning task over two days. The children with TS showed sequence learning advantages on both days, despite a regression of sequence knowledge overnight to the level of the TD children. This is the first demonstration of procedural learning advantages in any disorder. The findings may further our understanding of procedural memory and its enhancement. The evidence presented here, together with previous findings suggesting enhanced grammar processing in TS, underscore the dependence of language on a system that also subserves visuomotor sequencing.
Keywords: basal ganglia; implicit learning; sequence learning; procedural memory; Tourette syndrome
Abstract: Procedural memory, which is rooted in the basal ganglia, underlies the learning and processing of numerous automatized motor and cognitive skills, including in language. Not surprisingly, disorders with basal ganglia abnormalities have been found to show impairments of procedural memory. However, brain abnormalities could also lead to atypically enhanced function. Tourette syndrome (TS) is a candidate for enhanced procedural memory, given previous findings of enhanced TS processing of grammar, which likely depends on procedural memory. We comprehensively examined procedural learning, from memory formation to retention, in children with TS and typically developing (TD) children, who performed an implicit sequence learning task over two days. The children with TS showed sequence learning advantages on both days, despite a regression of sequence knowledge overnight to the level of the TD children. This is the first demonstration of procedural learning advantages in any disorder. The findings may further our understanding of procedural memory and its enhancement. The evidence presented here, together with previous findings suggesting enhanced grammar processing in TS, underscore the dependence of language on a system that also subserves visuomotor sequencing.
Keywords: basal ganglia; implicit learning; sequence learning; procedural memory; Tourette syndrome
Saturday, September 9, 2017
Analyzing a tool of IS propaganda: Ibn ʿAbdul-Wahhāb’s "Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Kufr Tārik al-Tawḥīd"
Analyzing a tool of IS propaganda: Ibn ʿAbdul-Wahhāb’s "Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Kufr Tārik al-Tawḥīd". Joe Bradford. Draft Paper presented at MeHAT, University of Chicago, 2016.
Abstract: ISIL or ISIS continues to burden the world with political strife and divisive religious rhetoric. One of the main attractions to their ideology is their claim of being a "caliphate upon the prophetic model." This allows them latitude in justifying many of their punitive actions against the populaces of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere while retaining their moniker of being a truly "Islamic" state. One tool for the legitimization of these acts is a text written in the modern period by Muḥammad b. ʿAbdul-Wahhāb (d.1791) titled " Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Disbelief (Kufr) Tārik al-Tawḥīd." That treatise was originally written against the inhabitants of Ḥuraymilāʾ after they rejected the author’s ideas and seceded from the budding Saudi state.
This paper will cover four main topics related to this treatise: 1) A comparison of the IS print of this book to others printed outside IS lands. 2) A catalog and summary of the contents of this treatise, 3) reactions of Wahhabi scholars to it in their own writings, and 4) the genealogy of its legal and theological issues and their presence outside the Wahhabi tradition. To conclude, the proximity of the ideas presented in this treatise to the broader Islamic legal and theological tradition will be determined.
Abstract: ISIL or ISIS continues to burden the world with political strife and divisive religious rhetoric. One of the main attractions to their ideology is their claim of being a "caliphate upon the prophetic model." This allows them latitude in justifying many of their punitive actions against the populaces of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere while retaining their moniker of being a truly "Islamic" state. One tool for the legitimization of these acts is a text written in the modern period by Muḥammad b. ʿAbdul-Wahhāb (d.1791) titled " Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Disbelief (Kufr) Tārik al-Tawḥīd." That treatise was originally written against the inhabitants of Ḥuraymilāʾ after they rejected the author’s ideas and seceded from the budding Saudi state.
This paper will cover four main topics related to this treatise: 1) A comparison of the IS print of this book to others printed outside IS lands. 2) A catalog and summary of the contents of this treatise, 3) reactions of Wahhabi scholars to it in their own writings, and 4) the genealogy of its legal and theological issues and their presence outside the Wahhabi tradition. To conclude, the proximity of the ideas presented in this treatise to the broader Islamic legal and theological tradition will be determined.
Al-Qadā’ wa-l-Qadr: motivational representations of divine decree and predestination in salafi-jihadi literature
Al-Qadā’ wa-l-Qadr: motivational representations of divine decree and predestination in salafi-jihadi literature. Shiraz Maher & Alexandra Bissoondath, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2017.1361317
Abstract: This
paper explores how the normative Islamic concepts of divine decree and
predestination are used for motivational purposes in salafi-jihadi
literature. These concepts are known as al-qaḍā’ wa-l-qadr
within Islamic jurisprudence and assert that certain characteristics in
an individual’s life—such as their lifespan, wealth and progeny—have
already been preordained by God. Salafi-Jihadi groups, not least
al-Qaeda and Islamic State, frame these concepts in unique and important
ways to motivate their fighters on the battlefield, liberating them
from fear of personal consequences. In particular, we examine the use of
this concept not just to motivate fighters at a personal level, but
also its role in maintaining morale during times of hardship, its
ability to explain away failures and defeats, and its ability to project
both momentum and success even when the facts suggest otherwise.
Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds
Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds. Joaquin Navajas, Tamara Niella, Gerry Garbulsky, Bahador Bahrami, Mariano Sigman. ArXiv Mar 2017, https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.00045
Abstract: The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has recently been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that the key to collective accuracy is to preserve the independence of individuals in a crowd. Contrary to this prevailing view, we show that deliberation and discussion improves collective wisdom. We asked a live crowd (N=5180) to respond to general knowledge questions (e.g. the height of the Eiffel Tower). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that consensus and revised estimates were less biased and more diverse than what a uniform aggregation of independent opinions could achieve. Consequently, the average of different consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the independent opinions. Even combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals. Our results indicate that averaging information from independent debates is a highly effective strategy for harnessing our collective knowledge.
Abstract: The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has recently been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that the key to collective accuracy is to preserve the independence of individuals in a crowd. Contrary to this prevailing view, we show that deliberation and discussion improves collective wisdom. We asked a live crowd (N=5180) to respond to general knowledge questions (e.g. the height of the Eiffel Tower). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that consensus and revised estimates were less biased and more diverse than what a uniform aggregation of independent opinions could achieve. Consequently, the average of different consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the independent opinions. Even combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals. Our results indicate that averaging information from independent debates is a highly effective strategy for harnessing our collective knowledge.
The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict
The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict. Angel Gomez et al. Nature Human Behaviour 1, 673–679 (2017), doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0193-3
Abstract: Frontline investigations with fighters against the Islamic State (ISIL or ISIS), combined with multiple online studies, address willingness to fight and die in intergroup conflict. The general focus is on non-utilitarian aspects of human conflict, which combatants themselves deem ‘sacred’ or ‘spiritual’, whether secular or religious. Here we investigate two key components of a theoretical framework we call ‘the devoted actor’—sacred values and identity fusion with a group—to better understand people’s willingness to make costly sacrifices. We reveal three crucial factors: commitment to non-negotiable sacred values and the groups that the actors are wholly fused with; readiness to forsake kin for those values; and perceived spiritual strength of ingroup versus foes as more important than relative material strength. We directly relate expressed willingness for action to behaviour as a check on claims that decisions in extreme conflicts are driven by cost–benefit calculations, which may help to inform policy decisions for the common defense.
Abstract: Frontline investigations with fighters against the Islamic State (ISIL or ISIS), combined with multiple online studies, address willingness to fight and die in intergroup conflict. The general focus is on non-utilitarian aspects of human conflict, which combatants themselves deem ‘sacred’ or ‘spiritual’, whether secular or religious. Here we investigate two key components of a theoretical framework we call ‘the devoted actor’—sacred values and identity fusion with a group—to better understand people’s willingness to make costly sacrifices. We reveal three crucial factors: commitment to non-negotiable sacred values and the groups that the actors are wholly fused with; readiness to forsake kin for those values; and perceived spiritual strength of ingroup versus foes as more important than relative material strength. We directly relate expressed willingness for action to behaviour as a check on claims that decisions in extreme conflicts are driven by cost–benefit calculations, which may help to inform policy decisions for the common defense.
Not Threat, But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy
Not Threat, But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy. Donald P Haider-Markel & Mark R Joslyn. Journal of Homosexuality, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00918369.2017.1377490
ABSTRACT: Existing literature on numeracy suggests that people are likely to perceive out-groups as larger if the group is perceived as threating. However, some studies also suggest that numeracy is a function of wishful thinking or even a lack of political knowledge. We engage the literature on numeracy of the gay and lesbian population by employing data from 1977 and 2013 surveys of American adults. We examine the factors that are associated with estimating the gay population. Next we explore how innumeracy may shape attitudes about homosexuality and gay rights. Our findings suggest that estimates of the gay population are partly a function of knowledge, and perhaps wishful thinking, but not threat. However, our analysis also reveals that higher estimates of the gay population are associated less support for gay civil rights in the current era, and were not a factor in the past.
KEYWORDS: Numeracy, innumeracy, gay population, rights, policy attitudes, threat, knowledge
ABSTRACT: Existing literature on numeracy suggests that people are likely to perceive out-groups as larger if the group is perceived as threating. However, some studies also suggest that numeracy is a function of wishful thinking or even a lack of political knowledge. We engage the literature on numeracy of the gay and lesbian population by employing data from 1977 and 2013 surveys of American adults. We examine the factors that are associated with estimating the gay population. Next we explore how innumeracy may shape attitudes about homosexuality and gay rights. Our findings suggest that estimates of the gay population are partly a function of knowledge, and perhaps wishful thinking, but not threat. However, our analysis also reveals that higher estimates of the gay population are associated less support for gay civil rights in the current era, and were not a factor in the past.
KEYWORDS: Numeracy, innumeracy, gay population, rights, policy attitudes, threat, knowledge
Hedonic Recall Bias. Why You Should Not Ask People How Much They Earn
Hedonic Recall Bias. Why You Should Not Ask People How Much They Earn. Alberto Prati. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.002
Highlights
• Survey data lead to large over-estimation of the effect of wage on wage satisfaction
• Income misreporting in surveys is not random, but endogenous
• People relatively more satisfied with their wage tend to over-report their wage
• People relatively less satisfied with their wage tend to under-report their wage
Abstract: The empirical literature which explores the effect of wage on job satisfaction typically uses data drawn from social surveys. In these surveys, the amount of wage is reported by the respondents themselves: thus, the explanatory variable of the econometric models may differ from the true wage people earn. Our paper shows that the use of survey data can lead to considerable over-estimation of the importance of wage as a determinant of wage satisfaction. In particular, responses seem to be affected by a recall bias: people who are satisfied with their wage are more likely to over-report their wage in questionnaires. The more satisfied they are the more they over-report (and vice-versa unsatisfied people). We name this behavioral disposition “hedonic recall bias”.
JEL classification: D03; J28
Keywords: Recall bias; Job satisfaction; Wage satisfaction; Measurement error; Survey income
Highlights
• Survey data lead to large over-estimation of the effect of wage on wage satisfaction
• Income misreporting in surveys is not random, but endogenous
• People relatively more satisfied with their wage tend to over-report their wage
• People relatively less satisfied with their wage tend to under-report their wage
Abstract: The empirical literature which explores the effect of wage on job satisfaction typically uses data drawn from social surveys. In these surveys, the amount of wage is reported by the respondents themselves: thus, the explanatory variable of the econometric models may differ from the true wage people earn. Our paper shows that the use of survey data can lead to considerable over-estimation of the importance of wage as a determinant of wage satisfaction. In particular, responses seem to be affected by a recall bias: people who are satisfied with their wage are more likely to over-report their wage in questionnaires. The more satisfied they are the more they over-report (and vice-versa unsatisfied people). We name this behavioral disposition “hedonic recall bias”.
JEL classification: D03; J28
Keywords: Recall bias; Job satisfaction; Wage satisfaction; Measurement error; Survey income
Psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations
Psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Kohske Takahashi, Haruaki Fukuda, Katsumi Watanabe, Kazuhiro Uedab. Food Quality and Preference, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2017.09.004
Highlights
• Animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food.
• Realistic animal-themed decoration decreases the value of food.
• The effects of animal-themed decoration depend on the animal-likeness of the food.
Abstract: Food appearance influences the food’s perceived value. It is paradoxical that animal-shaped foods (e.g., animal crackers) are popular and widely accepted among consumers, given that foods with an animal likeness usually elicit emotional disgust and avoidance behaviors. We experimentally tested the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Participants evaluated their willingness to eat chocolate, kamaboko (a Japanese processed seafood product), and sashimi on which pictures of animals had been painted. We found that the perceived value of food did not improve by adding animal-themed decorations. In fact, the decoration drastically reduced the value of the foods actually made from animals (i.e., kamaboko and sashimi). The model analyses further confirmed that the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations partly depended on whether the food was of animal origin or not. Furthermore, animal pictures with stronger animacy (i.e., realism) enhanced the negative influences of these decorations on the willingness to eat kamaboko and sashimi. These results together suggest that animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food per se, perhaps because they emphasize the resemblance of foods to animals and thereby increase emotional disgust.
Highlights
• Animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food.
• Realistic animal-themed decoration decreases the value of food.
• The effects of animal-themed decoration depend on the animal-likeness of the food.
Abstract: Food appearance influences the food’s perceived value. It is paradoxical that animal-shaped foods (e.g., animal crackers) are popular and widely accepted among consumers, given that foods with an animal likeness usually elicit emotional disgust and avoidance behaviors. We experimentally tested the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Participants evaluated their willingness to eat chocolate, kamaboko (a Japanese processed seafood product), and sashimi on which pictures of animals had been painted. We found that the perceived value of food did not improve by adding animal-themed decorations. In fact, the decoration drastically reduced the value of the foods actually made from animals (i.e., kamaboko and sashimi). The model analyses further confirmed that the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations partly depended on whether the food was of animal origin or not. Furthermore, animal pictures with stronger animacy (i.e., realism) enhanced the negative influences of these decorations on the willingness to eat kamaboko and sashimi. These results together suggest that animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food per se, perhaps because they emphasize the resemblance of foods to animals and thereby increase emotional disgust.
Friday, September 8, 2017
Estimates of Non-Heterosexual Prevalence: The Roles of Anonymity and Privacy in Survey Methodology
Estimates of Non-Heterosexual Prevalence: The Roles of Anonymity and Privacy in Survey Methodology. Ronald E. Robertson et al. Archives of Sexual Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-017-1044-z
Abstract: When do people feel comfortable enough to provide honest answers to sensitive questions? Focusing specifically on sexual orientation prevalence—a measure that is sensitive to the pressures of heteronormativity—the present study was conducted to examine the variability in U.S. estimates of non-heterosexual identity prevalence and to determine how comfortable people are with answering questions about their sexual orientation when asked through commonly used survey modes. We found that estimates of non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. increased as the privacy and anonymity of the survey increased. Utilizing an online questionnaire, we rank-ordered 16 survey modes by asking people to rate their level of comfort with each mode in the context of being asked questions about their sexual orientation. A demographically diverse sample of 652 individuals in the U.S. rated each mode on a scale from −5 (very uncomfortable) to +5 (very comfortable). Modes included anonymous (name not required) and non-anonymous (name required) versions of questions, as well as self-administered and interviewer-administered versions. Subjects reported significantly higher mean comfort levels with anonymous modes than with non-anonymous modes and significantly higher mean comfort levels with self-administered modes than with interviewer-administered modes. Subjects reported the highest mean comfort level with anonymous online surveys and the lowest with non-anonymous personal interviews that included a video recording. Compared with the estimate produced by an online survey with a nationally representative sample, surveys utilizing more intrusive methodologies may have underestimated non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. by between 50 and 414%. Implications for public policy are discussed.
Abstract: When do people feel comfortable enough to provide honest answers to sensitive questions? Focusing specifically on sexual orientation prevalence—a measure that is sensitive to the pressures of heteronormativity—the present study was conducted to examine the variability in U.S. estimates of non-heterosexual identity prevalence and to determine how comfortable people are with answering questions about their sexual orientation when asked through commonly used survey modes. We found that estimates of non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. increased as the privacy and anonymity of the survey increased. Utilizing an online questionnaire, we rank-ordered 16 survey modes by asking people to rate their level of comfort with each mode in the context of being asked questions about their sexual orientation. A demographically diverse sample of 652 individuals in the U.S. rated each mode on a scale from −5 (very uncomfortable) to +5 (very comfortable). Modes included anonymous (name not required) and non-anonymous (name required) versions of questions, as well as self-administered and interviewer-administered versions. Subjects reported significantly higher mean comfort levels with anonymous modes than with non-anonymous modes and significantly higher mean comfort levels with self-administered modes than with interviewer-administered modes. Subjects reported the highest mean comfort level with anonymous online surveys and the lowest with non-anonymous personal interviews that included a video recording. Compared with the estimate produced by an online survey with a nationally representative sample, surveys utilizing more intrusive methodologies may have underestimated non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. by between 50 and 414%. Implications for public policy are discussed.
Emotions Know Best: The Advantage of Emotional versus Cognitive Responses to Failure
Nelson, N., Malkoc, S. A., and Shiv, B. (2017) Emotions Know Best: The Advantage of Emotional versus Cognitive Responses to Failure. J. Behav. Dec. Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2042.
Abstract: Making mistakes or failing at tasks is a common occurrence in human life. People can respond to and cope with failure in many ways. In this research, we examine potential advantages of relatively emotional (versus cognitive) responses to failure. In particular, we study how effort and time spent in subsequent tasks depend on whether people predominantly focus on their emotions or their cognitions as they respond to a failure. We demonstrate that, left to their own means, people's cognitions upon a failure are mainly justificatory in nature and thus do not automatically have the commonly believed reflective, self-improving qualities. We further argue and demonstrate that a relative focus on cognitions following a failure can prevent improvement in subsequent episodes, but a focus on emotions can allow for learning and, therefore, increased effort.
Abstract: Making mistakes or failing at tasks is a common occurrence in human life. People can respond to and cope with failure in many ways. In this research, we examine potential advantages of relatively emotional (versus cognitive) responses to failure. In particular, we study how effort and time spent in subsequent tasks depend on whether people predominantly focus on their emotions or their cognitions as they respond to a failure. We demonstrate that, left to their own means, people's cognitions upon a failure are mainly justificatory in nature and thus do not automatically have the commonly believed reflective, self-improving qualities. We further argue and demonstrate that a relative focus on cognitions following a failure can prevent improvement in subsequent episodes, but a focus on emotions can allow for learning and, therefore, increased effort.
Chilldren unable to solve school arithmetic problems were able to solve similar ones when framed as market transactions
The untapped math skills of working children in India: Evidence, possible explanations, and implications. Abhijit V. Banerjee et al. MIT Economics, https://economics.mit.edu/files/13531
Abstract: It has been widely documented that many children in India lack basic arithmetic skills, as measured by their capacity to solve subtraction and division problems. We surveyed children working in informal markets in Kolkata, West Bengal, and confirmed that most were unable to solve arithmetic problems as typically presented in school. However, we also found that they were able to perform similar operations when framed as market transactions. This discrepancy was not explained by children’s ability to memorize prices and quantities in market transactions, assistance from others at their shops, reliance on calculation aids, or reading and writing skills. In fact, many children could solve hypothetical transactions of goods that they did not sell. Our results suggest that these children have arithmetic skills that are untapped by the school system.
Abstract: It has been widely documented that many children in India lack basic arithmetic skills, as measured by their capacity to solve subtraction and division problems. We surveyed children working in informal markets in Kolkata, West Bengal, and confirmed that most were unable to solve arithmetic problems as typically presented in school. However, we also found that they were able to perform similar operations when framed as market transactions. This discrepancy was not explained by children’s ability to memorize prices and quantities in market transactions, assistance from others at their shops, reliance on calculation aids, or reading and writing skills. In fact, many children could solve hypothetical transactions of goods that they did not sell. Our results suggest that these children have arithmetic skills that are untapped by the school system.
Observing Others’ Anger and Guilt Can Make You Feel Unfairly Treated: The Interpersonal Effects of Emotions on Justice-Related Reactions
Observing Others’ Anger and Guilt Can Make You Feel Unfairly Treated: The Interpersonal Effects of Emotions on Justice-Related Reactions. Annika Hillebrandt and Laurie J. Barclay. Social Justice Research. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11211-017-0290-5
Abstract: Drawing upon emotions as social information theory, we propose that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ justice judgments, outcome satisfaction, and behaviors even when individuals are not unfairly treated themselves and in the absence of explicit information about the fairness of others’ treatment. Study 1 demonstrated that individuals make inferences about the outcome favorability and procedural justice encountered by others based on others’ expressions of guilt and anger, which also influence individuals’ judgments of others’ overall justice and outcome satisfaction. Studies 2 and 3 demonstrated that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ own judgments of procedural justice and overall justice. Specifically, individuals perceive lower levels of justice when another person expresses guilt or anger relative to no emotion. Moreover, others’ emotions influence individuals’ outcome satisfaction and behaviors (i.e., helping intentions and retaliation); these effects are mediated by individuals’ own justice judgments (i.e., procedural and overall justice). Theoretical implications related to the role of emotions as antecedents to justice judgments, the social function of emotions, and the impact of emotions on third-party observers are discussed.
Abstract: Drawing upon emotions as social information theory, we propose that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ justice judgments, outcome satisfaction, and behaviors even when individuals are not unfairly treated themselves and in the absence of explicit information about the fairness of others’ treatment. Study 1 demonstrated that individuals make inferences about the outcome favorability and procedural justice encountered by others based on others’ expressions of guilt and anger, which also influence individuals’ judgments of others’ overall justice and outcome satisfaction. Studies 2 and 3 demonstrated that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ own judgments of procedural justice and overall justice. Specifically, individuals perceive lower levels of justice when another person expresses guilt or anger relative to no emotion. Moreover, others’ emotions influence individuals’ outcome satisfaction and behaviors (i.e., helping intentions and retaliation); these effects are mediated by individuals’ own justice judgments (i.e., procedural and overall justice). Theoretical implications related to the role of emotions as antecedents to justice judgments, the social function of emotions, and the impact of emotions on third-party observers are discussed.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): A prospective cohort study.
Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): A prospective cohort study. Mahshid Dehghan et al. Lancet, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32252-3
Abstract
Methods: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7•4 years (IQR 5•3–9•3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.
Findings: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1•28 [95% CI 1•12–1•46], ptrend=0•0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0•77 [95% CI 0•67–0•87], ptrend<0 0="" 1="" 5="" and="" associated="" br="" cardiovascular="" ci="" disease="" fat:="" fat="" fats="" higher="" hr="" infarction="" intake="" lower="" monounsaturated="" mortality.="" myocardial="" not="" of="" or="" polyunsaturated="" ptrend="0•0498)." quintile="" risk="" saturated="" significantly="" stroke="" total="" unsaturated="" vs="" was="" were="" with="">
Interpretation: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.
Abstract
Methods: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7•4 years (IQR 5•3–9•3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.
Findings: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1•28 [95% CI 1•12–1•46], ptrend=0•0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0•77 [95% CI 0•67–0•87], ptrend<0 0="" 1="" 5="" and="" associated="" br="" cardiovascular="" ci="" disease="" fat:="" fat="" fats="" higher="" hr="" infarction="" intake="" lower="" monounsaturated="" mortality.="" myocardial="" not="" of="" or="" polyunsaturated="" ptrend="0•0498)." quintile="" risk="" saturated="" significantly="" stroke="" total="" unsaturated="" vs="" was="" were="" with="">
Interpretation: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.
Examining the “Veggie” personality: Results from a representative German sample
Examining the “Veggie” personality: Results from a representative German sample. Tamara M. Pfeiler and Boris Egloff. Appetite, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2017.09.005
Abstract: An increasing proportion of people choose to follow a vegetarian diet. To date, however, little is known about if and how individual differences in personality relate to following a vegetarian diet. In the two studies presented here, we aimed to (1) estimate the prevalence of self-defined vegetarians in two waves of a German representative sample (N = 4496 and 5,125, respectively), (2) analyze the effect of socio-demographic variables on dietary behavior, and (3) examine individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. In Study 1, a strict definition of vegetarians was used, while in Study 2 the definition was laxer, to include also individuals who only predominantly followed a vegetarian diet. The prevalence of self-defined vegetarians was 2.74% in Study 1, and 5.97% in Study 2. Participants who were female, younger, and more educated were more likely to report following a vegetarian diet in both studies, and vegetarians had higher income as compared to meat eaters in Study 2. We also found differences between vegetarians and meat eaters with regard to personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. Stepwise logistic regression analyses showed a unique effect beyond socio-demographic variables for openness (Studies 1 and 2), conscientiousness (Study 1), trust (Study 2), conservatism (Studies 1 and 2), and level of interest in politics (Study 1) on diet: Individuals with higher scores in openness and political interest had a higher probability of being vegetarian, whereas people with higher scores in conscientiousness and conservatism had a smaller likelihood of being vegetarian. We conclude that there are individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in socio-demographics, personality traits, and political attitudes.
Keywords: Vegetarian diet; Personality traits; Big Five; Prevalence; Meat eating; Political attitudes
Abstract: An increasing proportion of people choose to follow a vegetarian diet. To date, however, little is known about if and how individual differences in personality relate to following a vegetarian diet. In the two studies presented here, we aimed to (1) estimate the prevalence of self-defined vegetarians in two waves of a German representative sample (N = 4496 and 5,125, respectively), (2) analyze the effect of socio-demographic variables on dietary behavior, and (3) examine individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. In Study 1, a strict definition of vegetarians was used, while in Study 2 the definition was laxer, to include also individuals who only predominantly followed a vegetarian diet. The prevalence of self-defined vegetarians was 2.74% in Study 1, and 5.97% in Study 2. Participants who were female, younger, and more educated were more likely to report following a vegetarian diet in both studies, and vegetarians had higher income as compared to meat eaters in Study 2. We also found differences between vegetarians and meat eaters with regard to personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. Stepwise logistic regression analyses showed a unique effect beyond socio-demographic variables for openness (Studies 1 and 2), conscientiousness (Study 1), trust (Study 2), conservatism (Studies 1 and 2), and level of interest in politics (Study 1) on diet: Individuals with higher scores in openness and political interest had a higher probability of being vegetarian, whereas people with higher scores in conscientiousness and conservatism had a smaller likelihood of being vegetarian. We conclude that there are individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in socio-demographics, personality traits, and political attitudes.
Keywords: Vegetarian diet; Personality traits; Big Five; Prevalence; Meat eating; Political attitudes
Stylized and photographic eye images do not increase charitable donations in a field experiment
Stylized and photographic eye images do not increase charitable donations in a field experiment. Paul Lennon, Rachel Grant, and V. Tamara Montrose. Letters on Evolutionary Behavioral Science, Vol 8, No 2 (2017). http://lebs.hbesj.org/index.php/lebs/article/view/lebs.2017.60
Abstract: The effects of watching eyes upon prosocial behavior have been explored in various contexts, for example, in relation to charitable donations, honor-system payments and littering. Whilst studies have explored the effects of both photographic and stylized eyes upon prosocial behavior, no study, to our knowledge, has compared stylized eyes to photographic eyes. Here we explored the effects of stylized and photographic eye images upon prosocial behavior assessed via charitable donations in a ‘free cakes’ field experiment. Charitable giving was assessed under six eye image conditions, three stylized eye images (evil eye, eye of Horus, all-seeing eye), one photographic eye image (human eye image) and two control images (geometric shape control and blank control). No difference in the amount of money donated was found between any of the eye image conditions. These results suggest that watching eyes, whether stylized or photographic, are not effective at eliciting prosocial behavior via charitable giving. However, further study contrasting single and paired eye imagery, and exploration of the effects of stylized eye imagery in deterring littering and crime, would be beneficial.
Abstract: The effects of watching eyes upon prosocial behavior have been explored in various contexts, for example, in relation to charitable donations, honor-system payments and littering. Whilst studies have explored the effects of both photographic and stylized eyes upon prosocial behavior, no study, to our knowledge, has compared stylized eyes to photographic eyes. Here we explored the effects of stylized and photographic eye images upon prosocial behavior assessed via charitable donations in a ‘free cakes’ field experiment. Charitable giving was assessed under six eye image conditions, three stylized eye images (evil eye, eye of Horus, all-seeing eye), one photographic eye image (human eye image) and two control images (geometric shape control and blank control). No difference in the amount of money donated was found between any of the eye image conditions. These results suggest that watching eyes, whether stylized or photographic, are not effective at eliciting prosocial behavior via charitable giving. However, further study contrasting single and paired eye imagery, and exploration of the effects of stylized eye imagery in deterring littering and crime, would be beneficial.
If mice could read, they would read the scandals in the tabloid press
Social inequality aversion in mice: Analysis with stress-induced hyperthermia and behavioral preference. Shigeru Watanabe. Learning and Motivation, Volume 59, August 2017, Pages 38-46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lmot.2017.08.002
Highlights
• Social inequality aversion is examined in food delivery situation.
• Mice display social inequality aversion detected by hyperthermia.
• Mice stay longer in the inequality situation in behavioral test.
• Thus, the mice approach to the inequality situation that caused aversion.
• This approaching behavior indicates informative value for the subjects.
Abstract: Humans have a sense of fairness and consequently are averse to inequality conditions. Recently, animal researchers suggested that some non-human animals also have inequality aversion. The author used stress-induced hyperthermia (SIH) to examine inequality aversion in mice. Experiment 1 measured the change in body surface temperature of mice under the condition of equality or inequality of food delivery. The results demonstrated that mice exhibited a large increment in body surface temperature when given a small piece of cheese and a cage mate was given a large piece. There was no increment in body temperature in equality conditions in which both the subject and the cage mate were given the same amount of cheese. The increase in body temperature was considered stress-induced hyperthermia caused by social inequality aversion. This is the first demonstration of inequality aversion of food delivery in mice. Simultaneous presentation of a large piece of cheese and a cage mate resulted in SIH in observer mice that were given a small piece of cheese, even though the cage mate was separated from the cheese by a partition to prevent it from eating the cheese. In Experiment 2, behavioral effects of inequality were examined in a chamber with two compartments. Mice could observe a cage mate in an adjacent compartment. They preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone. This result suggests inequality preference rather than inequality aversion. Thus, the results of Experiments 1 and 2 were contradictory. In a subsequent Experiment 3, both behavioral preference and body surface temperature were measured simultaneously. Mice stayed longer in the inequality condition compartment (cheese-eating cage mate), although inequality caused SIH. Supporting the results of both Experiments 1 and 2. Thus, social inequality induced stress (aversive property) but it also induced approaching behavior that might be maintained by the informative value of a food-eating cage mate.
My comment: It is as if the frustrated mouse, the one that "preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone," valued so much to be informed of the high-powered life that the other mouse lives that it compensates him for the inequality... Suffering envy but losing no details of the life of the rich and powerful mice is like reading the tabloid press, with all kind of minutiae about the jet set life.
Check also: Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion. Shigeru Watanabe and Yutaka Kosaki. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 273-299, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/evolutionary-origin-of-empathy-and.html
Highlights
• Social inequality aversion is examined in food delivery situation.
• Mice display social inequality aversion detected by hyperthermia.
• Mice stay longer in the inequality situation in behavioral test.
• Thus, the mice approach to the inequality situation that caused aversion.
• This approaching behavior indicates informative value for the subjects.
Abstract: Humans have a sense of fairness and consequently are averse to inequality conditions. Recently, animal researchers suggested that some non-human animals also have inequality aversion. The author used stress-induced hyperthermia (SIH) to examine inequality aversion in mice. Experiment 1 measured the change in body surface temperature of mice under the condition of equality or inequality of food delivery. The results demonstrated that mice exhibited a large increment in body surface temperature when given a small piece of cheese and a cage mate was given a large piece. There was no increment in body temperature in equality conditions in which both the subject and the cage mate were given the same amount of cheese. The increase in body temperature was considered stress-induced hyperthermia caused by social inequality aversion. This is the first demonstration of inequality aversion of food delivery in mice. Simultaneous presentation of a large piece of cheese and a cage mate resulted in SIH in observer mice that were given a small piece of cheese, even though the cage mate was separated from the cheese by a partition to prevent it from eating the cheese. In Experiment 2, behavioral effects of inequality were examined in a chamber with two compartments. Mice could observe a cage mate in an adjacent compartment. They preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone. This result suggests inequality preference rather than inequality aversion. Thus, the results of Experiments 1 and 2 were contradictory. In a subsequent Experiment 3, both behavioral preference and body surface temperature were measured simultaneously. Mice stayed longer in the inequality condition compartment (cheese-eating cage mate), although inequality caused SIH. Supporting the results of both Experiments 1 and 2. Thus, social inequality induced stress (aversive property) but it also induced approaching behavior that might be maintained by the informative value of a food-eating cage mate.
My comment: It is as if the frustrated mouse, the one that "preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone," valued so much to be informed of the high-powered life that the other mouse lives that it compensates him for the inequality... Suffering envy but losing no details of the life of the rich and powerful mice is like reading the tabloid press, with all kind of minutiae about the jet set life.
Check also: Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion. Shigeru Watanabe and Yutaka Kosaki. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 273-299, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/evolutionary-origin-of-empathy-and.html
Higher long-term lithium levels in drinking water may be associated with less dementia
Association of Lithium in Drinking Water With the Incidence of Dementia. Lars Vedel Kessing et al. JAMA Psychiatry, http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/article-abstract/2649277
* Key Points
Question: Is a higher lithium level in drinking water associated with a decreased incidence of dementia?
Findings: In this Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 control individuals, the level of lithium exposure was lower for patients with a diagnosis of dementia than for controls. Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
Meaning: Exposure to higher long-term lithium levels in drinking water may be associated with a lower incidence of dementia.
* Abstract
Importance: Results from animal and human studies suggest that lithium in therapeutic doses may improve learning and memory and modify the risk of developing dementia. Additional preliminary studies suggest that subtherapeutic levels, including microlevels of lithium, may influence human cognition.
Objective: To investigate whether the incidence of dementia in the general population covaries with long-term exposure to microlevels of lithium in drinking water.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study examined longitudinal, individual geographic data on municipality of residence and data from drinking water measurements combined with time-specific data from all patients aged 50 to 90 years with a hospital contact with a diagnosis of dementia from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2013, and 10 age- and sex-matched control individuals from the Danish population. The mean lithium exposure in drinking water since 1986 was estimated for all study individuals. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2013.
Results: A total of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 controls (median age, 80.3 years; interquartile range, 74.9-84.6 years; 44 760 female [60.7%] and 28 971 male [39.3%]) were included in the study. Lithium exposure was statistically significantly different between patients with a diagnosis of dementia (median, 11.5 µg/L; interquartile range, 6.5-14.9 µg/L) and controls (median, 12.2 µg/L; interquartile range, 7.3-16.0 µg/L; P < .001). A nonlinear association was observed. Compared with individuals exposed to 2.0 to 5.0 µg/L, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dementia was decreased in those exposed to more than 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85; P < .001) and 10.1 to 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01; P = .17) and increased with 5.1 to 10.0 µg/L (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25; P < .001). Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
* Key Points
Question: Is a higher lithium level in drinking water associated with a decreased incidence of dementia?
Findings: In this Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 control individuals, the level of lithium exposure was lower for patients with a diagnosis of dementia than for controls. Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
Meaning: Exposure to higher long-term lithium levels in drinking water may be associated with a lower incidence of dementia.
* Abstract
Importance: Results from animal and human studies suggest that lithium in therapeutic doses may improve learning and memory and modify the risk of developing dementia. Additional preliminary studies suggest that subtherapeutic levels, including microlevels of lithium, may influence human cognition.
Objective: To investigate whether the incidence of dementia in the general population covaries with long-term exposure to microlevels of lithium in drinking water.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study examined longitudinal, individual geographic data on municipality of residence and data from drinking water measurements combined with time-specific data from all patients aged 50 to 90 years with a hospital contact with a diagnosis of dementia from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2013, and 10 age- and sex-matched control individuals from the Danish population. The mean lithium exposure in drinking water since 1986 was estimated for all study individuals. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2013.
Results: A total of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 controls (median age, 80.3 years; interquartile range, 74.9-84.6 years; 44 760 female [60.7%] and 28 971 male [39.3%]) were included in the study. Lithium exposure was statistically significantly different between patients with a diagnosis of dementia (median, 11.5 µg/L; interquartile range, 6.5-14.9 µg/L) and controls (median, 12.2 µg/L; interquartile range, 7.3-16.0 µg/L; P < .001). A nonlinear association was observed. Compared with individuals exposed to 2.0 to 5.0 µg/L, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dementia was decreased in those exposed to more than 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85; P < .001) and 10.1 to 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01; P = .17) and increased with 5.1 to 10.0 µg/L (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25; P < .001). Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
A 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for teens
Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage: Panel Data Evidence from Canadian Provinces. Kate Rybczynski and Anindya Sen. Contemporary Economic Policy, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coep.12241/full
Abstract: Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime-aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity.
Abstract: Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime-aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity.
Deep Neural Networks Are More Accurate Than Humans at Detecting Sexual Orientation from Facial Images
Kosinski, Michal, and Yilun Wang. 2017. “Deep Neural Networks Are More Accurate Than Humans at Detecting Sexual Orientation from Facial Images.”. PsyArXiv. September 7. https://psyarxiv.com/hv28a
Abstract: We show that faces contain much more information about sexual orientation than can be perceived and interpreted by the human brain. We used deep neural networks to extract features from 35,326 facial images. These features were entered into a logistic regression aimed at classifying sexual orientation. Given a single facial image, a classifier could correctly distinguish between gay and heterosexual men in 81% of cases, and in 74% of cases for women. Human judges achieved much lower accuracy: 61% for men and 54% for women. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 91% and 83%, respectively, given five facial images per person. Facial features employed by the classifier included both fixed (e.g., nose shape) and transient facial features (e.g., grooming style). Consistent with the prenatal hormone theory of sexual orientation, gay men and women tended to have gender-atypical facial morphology, expression, and grooming styles. Prediction models aimed at gender alone allowed for detecting gay males with 57% accuracy and gay females with 58% accuracy. Those findings advance our understanding of the origins of sexual orientation and the limits of human perception. Additionally, given that companies and governments are increasingly using computer vision algorithms to detect people’s intimate traits, our findings expose a threat to the privacy and safety of gay men and women.
Abstract: We show that faces contain much more information about sexual orientation than can be perceived and interpreted by the human brain. We used deep neural networks to extract features from 35,326 facial images. These features were entered into a logistic regression aimed at classifying sexual orientation. Given a single facial image, a classifier could correctly distinguish between gay and heterosexual men in 81% of cases, and in 74% of cases for women. Human judges achieved much lower accuracy: 61% for men and 54% for women. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 91% and 83%, respectively, given five facial images per person. Facial features employed by the classifier included both fixed (e.g., nose shape) and transient facial features (e.g., grooming style). Consistent with the prenatal hormone theory of sexual orientation, gay men and women tended to have gender-atypical facial morphology, expression, and grooming styles. Prediction models aimed at gender alone allowed for detecting gay males with 57% accuracy and gay females with 58% accuracy. Those findings advance our understanding of the origins of sexual orientation and the limits of human perception. Additionally, given that companies and governments are increasingly using computer vision algorithms to detect people’s intimate traits, our findings expose a threat to the privacy and safety of gay men and women.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
