Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage: Panel Data Evidence from Canadian Provinces. Kate Rybczynski and Anindya Sen. Contemporary Economic Policy, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coep.12241/full
Abstract: Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime-aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Deep Neural Networks Are More Accurate Than Humans at Detecting Sexual Orientation from Facial Images
Kosinski, Michal, and Yilun Wang. 2017. “Deep Neural Networks Are More Accurate Than Humans at Detecting Sexual Orientation from Facial Images.”. PsyArXiv. September 7. https://psyarxiv.com/hv28a
Abstract: We show that faces contain much more information about sexual orientation than can be perceived and interpreted by the human brain. We used deep neural networks to extract features from 35,326 facial images. These features were entered into a logistic regression aimed at classifying sexual orientation. Given a single facial image, a classifier could correctly distinguish between gay and heterosexual men in 81% of cases, and in 74% of cases for women. Human judges achieved much lower accuracy: 61% for men and 54% for women. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 91% and 83%, respectively, given five facial images per person. Facial features employed by the classifier included both fixed (e.g., nose shape) and transient facial features (e.g., grooming style). Consistent with the prenatal hormone theory of sexual orientation, gay men and women tended to have gender-atypical facial morphology, expression, and grooming styles. Prediction models aimed at gender alone allowed for detecting gay males with 57% accuracy and gay females with 58% accuracy. Those findings advance our understanding of the origins of sexual orientation and the limits of human perception. Additionally, given that companies and governments are increasingly using computer vision algorithms to detect people’s intimate traits, our findings expose a threat to the privacy and safety of gay men and women.
Abstract: We show that faces contain much more information about sexual orientation than can be perceived and interpreted by the human brain. We used deep neural networks to extract features from 35,326 facial images. These features were entered into a logistic regression aimed at classifying sexual orientation. Given a single facial image, a classifier could correctly distinguish between gay and heterosexual men in 81% of cases, and in 74% of cases for women. Human judges achieved much lower accuracy: 61% for men and 54% for women. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 91% and 83%, respectively, given five facial images per person. Facial features employed by the classifier included both fixed (e.g., nose shape) and transient facial features (e.g., grooming style). Consistent with the prenatal hormone theory of sexual orientation, gay men and women tended to have gender-atypical facial morphology, expression, and grooming styles. Prediction models aimed at gender alone allowed for detecting gay males with 57% accuracy and gay females with 58% accuracy. Those findings advance our understanding of the origins of sexual orientation and the limits of human perception. Additionally, given that companies and governments are increasingly using computer vision algorithms to detect people’s intimate traits, our findings expose a threat to the privacy and safety of gay men and women.
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
A randomized controlled evaluation of a secondary school mindfulness program for early adolescents
A randomized controlled evaluation of a secondary school mindfulness program for early adolescents: Do we have the recipe right yet? Catherine Johnson et al. Behaviour Research and Therapy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2017.09.001
Highlights
• We investigated the .b mindfulness program for a second time in early adolescents.
• We tightened adherence to the manualised curriculum.
• Parental involvement was added in one arm of the RCT design.
• We found no differences between the mindfulness groups with/without parental involvement and the control group.
• Further research is required to identify optimal age and content of school-based mindfulness programs.
Abstract
Objective: Mindfulness is being promoted in schools as a prevention program despite a current small evidence base. The aim of this research was to conduct a rigorous evaluation of the .b (“Dot be”) mindfulness curriculum, with or without parental involvement, compared to a control condition.
Method: In a randomized controlled design, students (Mage 13.44, SD 0.33; 45.4% female) across a broad range of socioeconomic indicators received the nine lesson curriculum delivered by an external facilitator with (N = 191) or without (N = 186) parental involvement, or were allocated to a usual curriculum control group (N = 178). Self-report outcome measures were anxiety, depression, weight/shape concerns, wellbeing and mindfulness.
Results: There were no differences in outcomes between any of the three groups at post-intervention, six or twelve month follow-up. Between-group effect sizes (Cohen's d) across the variables ranged from 0.002 to 0.37. A wide range of moderators were examined but none impacted outcome.
Conclusions: Further research is required to identify the optimal age, content and length of mindfulness programs for adolescents in universal prevention settings.
Keywords: Mindfulness; Adolescence; Schools; Transdiagnostic; Prevention
The Pervasive Problem With Placebos in Psychology - Why Active Control Groups Are Not Sufficient to Rule Out Placebo Effects. Walter R. Boot et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, Volume: 8 issue: 4, page(s): 445-454, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613491271
Abstract: To draw causal conclusions about the efficacy of a psychological intervention, researchers must compare the treatment condition with a control group that accounts for improvements caused by factors other than the treatment. Using an active control helps to control for the possibility that improvement by the experimental group resulted from a placebo effect. Although active control groups are superior to “no-contact” controls, only when the active control group has the same expectation of improvement as the experimental group can we attribute differential improvements to the potency of the treatment. Despite the need to match expectations between treatment and control groups, almost no psychological interventions do so. This failure to control for expectations is not a minor omission—it is a fundamental design flaw that potentially undermines any causal inference. We illustrate these principles with a detailed example from the video-game-training literature showing how the use of an active control group does not eliminate expectation differences. The problem permeates other interventions as well, including those targeting mental health, cognition, and educational achievement. Fortunately, measuring expectations and adopting alternative experimental designs makes it possible to control for placebo effects, thereby increasing confidence in the causal efficacy of psychological interventions.
Highlights
• We investigated the .b mindfulness program for a second time in early adolescents.
• We tightened adherence to the manualised curriculum.
• Parental involvement was added in one arm of the RCT design.
• We found no differences between the mindfulness groups with/without parental involvement and the control group.
• Further research is required to identify optimal age and content of school-based mindfulness programs.
Abstract
Objective: Mindfulness is being promoted in schools as a prevention program despite a current small evidence base. The aim of this research was to conduct a rigorous evaluation of the .b (“Dot be”) mindfulness curriculum, with or without parental involvement, compared to a control condition.
Method: In a randomized controlled design, students (Mage 13.44, SD 0.33; 45.4% female) across a broad range of socioeconomic indicators received the nine lesson curriculum delivered by an external facilitator with (N = 191) or without (N = 186) parental involvement, or were allocated to a usual curriculum control group (N = 178). Self-report outcome measures were anxiety, depression, weight/shape concerns, wellbeing and mindfulness.
Results: There were no differences in outcomes between any of the three groups at post-intervention, six or twelve month follow-up. Between-group effect sizes (Cohen's d) across the variables ranged from 0.002 to 0.37. A wide range of moderators were examined but none impacted outcome.
Conclusions: Further research is required to identify the optimal age, content and length of mindfulness programs for adolescents in universal prevention settings.
Keywords: Mindfulness; Adolescence; Schools; Transdiagnostic; Prevention
The Pervasive Problem With Placebos in Psychology - Why Active Control Groups Are Not Sufficient to Rule Out Placebo Effects. Walter R. Boot et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, Volume: 8 issue: 4, page(s): 445-454, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613491271
Abstract: To draw causal conclusions about the efficacy of a psychological intervention, researchers must compare the treatment condition with a control group that accounts for improvements caused by factors other than the treatment. Using an active control helps to control for the possibility that improvement by the experimental group resulted from a placebo effect. Although active control groups are superior to “no-contact” controls, only when the active control group has the same expectation of improvement as the experimental group can we attribute differential improvements to the potency of the treatment. Despite the need to match expectations between treatment and control groups, almost no psychological interventions do so. This failure to control for expectations is not a minor omission—it is a fundamental design flaw that potentially undermines any causal inference. We illustrate these principles with a detailed example from the video-game-training literature showing how the use of an active control group does not eliminate expectation differences. The problem permeates other interventions as well, including those targeting mental health, cognition, and educational achievement. Fortunately, measuring expectations and adopting alternative experimental designs makes it possible to control for placebo effects, thereby increasing confidence in the causal efficacy of psychological interventions.
Monopoly without a monopolist : An economic analysis of the bitcoin payment system
Monopoly without a monopolist : An economic analysis of the bitcoin payment system. Jacob D. Leshno, Gur Huberman, and Ciamac Moallemi. BIS Central Bank Research Hub - Series: Bank of Finland Discussion Papers. https://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/series/sid_66/index.htm
Abstract: Many crypto-currencies, Bitcoin being the most prominent, are reliable electronic payment systems that operate without a central, trusted authority. They are enabled by blockchain technology, which deploys cryptographic tools and game theoretic incentives to create a two-sided platform. Profit maximizing computer servers called miners provide the infrastructure of the system. Its users can send payments anonymously and securely. Absent a central authority to control the system, the paper seeks to understand the operation of the system: How does the system raise revenue to pay for its infrastructure? How are usage fees determined? How much infrastructure is deployed?
A simplified economic model that captures the system’s properties answers these questions. Transaction fees and infrastructure level are determined in an equilibrium of a congestion queueing game derived from the system’s limited throughput. The system eliminates dead-weight loss from monopoly, but introduces other inefficiencies and requires congestion to raise revenue and fund infrastructure. We explore the future potential of such systems and provide design suggestions.
Abstract: Many crypto-currencies, Bitcoin being the most prominent, are reliable electronic payment systems that operate without a central, trusted authority. They are enabled by blockchain technology, which deploys cryptographic tools and game theoretic incentives to create a two-sided platform. Profit maximizing computer servers called miners provide the infrastructure of the system. Its users can send payments anonymously and securely. Absent a central authority to control the system, the paper seeks to understand the operation of the system: How does the system raise revenue to pay for its infrastructure? How are usage fees determined? How much infrastructure is deployed?
A simplified economic model that captures the system’s properties answers these questions. Transaction fees and infrastructure level are determined in an equilibrium of a congestion queueing game derived from the system’s limited throughput. The system eliminates dead-weight loss from monopoly, but introduces other inefficiencies and requires congestion to raise revenue and fund infrastructure. We explore the future potential of such systems and provide design suggestions.
Sabotaging Another: Priming Competition Increases Cheating Behavior in Tournaments
Rigdon, M. L. and D'Esterre, A. (2017), Sabotaging Another: Priming Competition Increases Cheating Behavior in Tournaments. Southern Economic Journal. doi:10.1002/soej.12232
Abstract: Trophy. Goal. Dominated. Does priming individuals with competitive concepts such as these influence the temptation to cheat? We utilize a standard laboratory cheating task in a tournament setting and test whether nonconscious priming impacts the nature of cheating behavior. The results demonstrate an asymmetry in a winner-take-all setting: a competitive prime does not increase cheating to improve one's own outcome, but does significantly increase the willingness of an individual to sabotage a competitor.
Abstract: Trophy. Goal. Dominated. Does priming individuals with competitive concepts such as these influence the temptation to cheat? We utilize a standard laboratory cheating task in a tournament setting and test whether nonconscious priming impacts the nature of cheating behavior. The results demonstrate an asymmetry in a winner-take-all setting: a competitive prime does not increase cheating to improve one's own outcome, but does significantly increase the willingness of an individual to sabotage a competitor.
Decreased Brain pH as a Shared Endophenotype of Psychiatric Disorders
Decreased Brain pH as a Shared Endophenotype of Psychiatric Disorders. Hideo Hagihara et al. Neuropsychopharmacology, Sept 06 2017; doi: 10.1038/npp.2017.167
Abstract: Although the brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder exhibit decreased brain pH relative to those of healthy controls upon postmortem examination, it remains controversial whether this finding reflects a primary feature of the diseases or is a result of confounding factors such as medication and agonal state. To date, systematic investigation of brain pH has not been undertaken using animal models that can be studied without confounds inherent in human studies. In the present study, we first reevaluated the pH of the postmortem brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder by conducting a meta-analysis of existing data sets from 10 studies. We then measured pH, lactate levels, and related metabolite levels in brain homogenates from five neurodevelopmental mouse models of psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and autism spectrum disorder. All mice were drug naive with the same agonal state, postmortem interval, and age within each strain. Our meta-analysis revealed that brain pH was significantly lower in patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder than in control participants, even when a few potential confounding factors (postmortem interval, age, and history of antipsychotic use) were considered. In animal experiments, we observed significantly lower pH and higher lactate levels in the brains of model mice relative to controls, as well as a significant negative correlation between pH and lactate levels. Our findings suggest that lower pH associated with increased lactate levels is not a mere artifact, but rather implicated in the underlying pathophysiology of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.
Abstract: Although the brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder exhibit decreased brain pH relative to those of healthy controls upon postmortem examination, it remains controversial whether this finding reflects a primary feature of the diseases or is a result of confounding factors such as medication and agonal state. To date, systematic investigation of brain pH has not been undertaken using animal models that can be studied without confounds inherent in human studies. In the present study, we first reevaluated the pH of the postmortem brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder by conducting a meta-analysis of existing data sets from 10 studies. We then measured pH, lactate levels, and related metabolite levels in brain homogenates from five neurodevelopmental mouse models of psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and autism spectrum disorder. All mice were drug naive with the same agonal state, postmortem interval, and age within each strain. Our meta-analysis revealed that brain pH was significantly lower in patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder than in control participants, even when a few potential confounding factors (postmortem interval, age, and history of antipsychotic use) were considered. In animal experiments, we observed significantly lower pH and higher lactate levels in the brains of model mice relative to controls, as well as a significant negative correlation between pH and lactate levels. Our findings suggest that lower pH associated with increased lactate levels is not a mere artifact, but rather implicated in the underlying pathophysiology of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.
The Impact of Price Controls: Evidence from US Debit Card Interchange Fee Regulation
The Impact of Price Controls in Two-Sided Markets: Evidence from US Debit Card Interchange Fee Regulation. Mark Manuszak and Krzysztof Wozniak. Federal Reserve Working Paper, July 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.074
Abstract: We study the pricing of deposit accounts following a regulation that capped debit card interchange fees in the United States and provide the first empirical investigation of the link between interchange fees and granular deposit account prices. This link is broadly predicted by the theoretical literature on two-sided markets, but the nature and magnitude of price changes are key empirical issues. To examine the ways that banks adjusted their account prices in response to the regulatory cap on interchange fees, we exploit the cap's differential applicability across banks and account types, while accounting for equilibrium spillover effects on banks exempt from the cap. Our results show that banks subject to the cap raised checking account prices by decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements, with different adjustment across account types. We also find that banks exempt from the cap adjusted prices as a competitive response to price changes made by regulated banks. Not accounting for such competitive responses underestimates the policy's impact on the market, for both banks subject to the cap and those exempt from it.
Keywords: Equilibrium effects, Financial supervision and regulation, Interchange fees, Retail banking and debit cards, Two-sided markets
JEL Classification: G21, G28, L51
My comment: Knowing the lawmaker that, if he reduces profits in some areas of work (in this case, capping most debit card fees), the profits must be reaped in another area of work (decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements), why do the legislator make these interventions? To the politician, 1 it is a way to be seen doing something to fight fees that the customers (and family members in Thanksgiving dinner) resent; 2 has almost no costs for him.
Abstract: We study the pricing of deposit accounts following a regulation that capped debit card interchange fees in the United States and provide the first empirical investigation of the link between interchange fees and granular deposit account prices. This link is broadly predicted by the theoretical literature on two-sided markets, but the nature and magnitude of price changes are key empirical issues. To examine the ways that banks adjusted their account prices in response to the regulatory cap on interchange fees, we exploit the cap's differential applicability across banks and account types, while accounting for equilibrium spillover effects on banks exempt from the cap. Our results show that banks subject to the cap raised checking account prices by decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements, with different adjustment across account types. We also find that banks exempt from the cap adjusted prices as a competitive response to price changes made by regulated banks. Not accounting for such competitive responses underestimates the policy's impact on the market, for both banks subject to the cap and those exempt from it.
Keywords: Equilibrium effects, Financial supervision and regulation, Interchange fees, Retail banking and debit cards, Two-sided markets
JEL Classification: G21, G28, L51
My comment: Knowing the lawmaker that, if he reduces profits in some areas of work (in this case, capping most debit card fees), the profits must be reaped in another area of work (decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements), why do the legislator make these interventions? To the politician, 1 it is a way to be seen doing something to fight fees that the customers (and family members in Thanksgiving dinner) resent; 2 has almost no costs for him.
Beliefs about obedience levels in studies conducted within the Milgram paradigm
Beliefs about obedience levels in studies conducted within the Milgram paradigm; Better than average effect and comparisons of typical behaviours by residents of various nations. Tomasz Grzyb and Dariusz Dolinski. Front. Psychol., doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01632
Abstract: The article presents studies examining whether the better-than-average effect (BTA) appears in opinions regarding obedience of individuals participating in an experiment conducted in the Milgram paradigm. Participants are presented with a detailed description of the experiment, asked to declare at what moment an average participant would cease their participation in the study, and then asked to declare at what moment they themselves would quit the experiment. It turned out that the participants demonstrated a strong BTA effect. This effect also concerned those who had known the results of the Milgram experiment prior to the study.
Interestingly, those individuals – in contrast to naive participants – judged that the average person would remain obedient for longer, but at the same time prior familiarity with the Milgram experiment did not impact convictions as to own obedience. By the same token, the BTA effect size was larger among those who had previously heard of the Milgram experiment than those who had not. Additionally, study participants were asked to estimate the behaviour of the average resident of their country (Poland), as well as of average residents of several other European countries. It turned out that in participants’ judgement the average Pole would withdraw from the experiment quicker than the average Russian and average German, but later than average residents of France and England.
My comment: people believe they would quit the Milgram experiment sooner than others.
Abstract: The article presents studies examining whether the better-than-average effect (BTA) appears in opinions regarding obedience of individuals participating in an experiment conducted in the Milgram paradigm. Participants are presented with a detailed description of the experiment, asked to declare at what moment an average participant would cease their participation in the study, and then asked to declare at what moment they themselves would quit the experiment. It turned out that the participants demonstrated a strong BTA effect. This effect also concerned those who had known the results of the Milgram experiment prior to the study.
Interestingly, those individuals – in contrast to naive participants – judged that the average person would remain obedient for longer, but at the same time prior familiarity with the Milgram experiment did not impact convictions as to own obedience. By the same token, the BTA effect size was larger among those who had previously heard of the Milgram experiment than those who had not. Additionally, study participants were asked to estimate the behaviour of the average resident of their country (Poland), as well as of average residents of several other European countries. It turned out that in participants’ judgement the average Pole would withdraw from the experiment quicker than the average Russian and average German, but later than average residents of France and England.
My comment: people believe they would quit the Milgram experiment sooner than others.
Self-reflection Orients Visual Attention Downward
Self-reflection Orients Visual Attention Downward. Yi Liu, Yu Tong and Hong Li. Front. Psychol., Sept 05 2017, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01506
Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated abstract concepts associated with spatial location (e.g., God in the Heavens) could direct visual attention upward or downward, because thinking about the abstract concepts activates the corresponding vertical perceptual symbols. For self-concept, there are similar metaphors (e.g., “I am above others”). However, whether thinking about the self can induce visual attention orientation is still unknown. Therefore, the current study tested whether self-reflection can direct visual attention. Individuals often display the tendency of self-enhancement in social comparison, which reminds the individual of the higher position one possesses relative to others within the social environment. As the individual is the agent of the attention orientation, and high status tends to make an individual look down upon others to obtain a sense of pride, it was hypothesized that thinking about the self would lead to a downward attention orientation. Using reflection of personality traits and a target discrimination task, Study 1 found that, after self-reflection, visual attention was directed downward. Similar effects were also found after friend-reflection, with the level of downward attention being correlated with the likability rating scores of the friend. Thus, in Study 2, a disliked other was used as a control and the positive self-view was measured with above-average judgment task. We found downward attention orientation after self-reflection, but not after reflection upon the disliked other. Moreover, the attentional bias after self-reflection was correlated with above-average self-view. The current findings provide the first evidence that thinking about the self could direct visual-spatial attention downward, and suggest that this effect is probably derived from a positive self-view within the social context.
Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated abstract concepts associated with spatial location (e.g., God in the Heavens) could direct visual attention upward or downward, because thinking about the abstract concepts activates the corresponding vertical perceptual symbols. For self-concept, there are similar metaphors (e.g., “I am above others”). However, whether thinking about the self can induce visual attention orientation is still unknown. Therefore, the current study tested whether self-reflection can direct visual attention. Individuals often display the tendency of self-enhancement in social comparison, which reminds the individual of the higher position one possesses relative to others within the social environment. As the individual is the agent of the attention orientation, and high status tends to make an individual look down upon others to obtain a sense of pride, it was hypothesized that thinking about the self would lead to a downward attention orientation. Using reflection of personality traits and a target discrimination task, Study 1 found that, after self-reflection, visual attention was directed downward. Similar effects were also found after friend-reflection, with the level of downward attention being correlated with the likability rating scores of the friend. Thus, in Study 2, a disliked other was used as a control and the positive self-view was measured with above-average judgment task. We found downward attention orientation after self-reflection, but not after reflection upon the disliked other. Moreover, the attentional bias after self-reflection was correlated with above-average self-view. The current findings provide the first evidence that thinking about the self could direct visual-spatial attention downward, and suggest that this effect is probably derived from a positive self-view within the social context.
Great Ape Social Attention
Great Ape Social Attention. Fumihiro Kano and Josep Call. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 187-206, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-4-431-56559-8_9
Abstract: Recent advances in infrared eye-tracking technology have allowed researchers to examine social attention in great apes in great detail. In this chapter we summarize our recent findings in this area. Great apes, like humans, exhibit spontaneous interest in naturalistic pictures and movies and selectively attend to socially significant elements such as faces, eyes, mouth, and the targets of others’ actions. Additionally, they follow the gaze direction of others and make anticipatory looks to the targets of others’ actions; the expression of these behaviors is adjusted flexibly according to the social contexts, and the viewers’ memories and understandings of others’ goals and intentions. Our studies have also revealed systematic species differences in attention to eyes and gaze following, particularly between bonobos and chimpanzees; several lines of evidence suggest that neural and physiological mechanisms underlying gaze perception, which are related to the individual differences within the human species, are also related to the species differences between bonobos and chimpanzees. Overall, our studies suggest that cognitive, emotional and physiological underpinnings of social attention are well conserved among great apes and humans.
Keywords: Action anticipation, Anticipatory look, Eye contact, Eye movement, Eye tracking, Gaze following, Great ape, Memory
Abstract: Recent advances in infrared eye-tracking technology have allowed researchers to examine social attention in great apes in great detail. In this chapter we summarize our recent findings in this area. Great apes, like humans, exhibit spontaneous interest in naturalistic pictures and movies and selectively attend to socially significant elements such as faces, eyes, mouth, and the targets of others’ actions. Additionally, they follow the gaze direction of others and make anticipatory looks to the targets of others’ actions; the expression of these behaviors is adjusted flexibly according to the social contexts, and the viewers’ memories and understandings of others’ goals and intentions. Our studies have also revealed systematic species differences in attention to eyes and gaze following, particularly between bonobos and chimpanzees; several lines of evidence suggest that neural and physiological mechanisms underlying gaze perception, which are related to the individual differences within the human species, are also related to the species differences between bonobos and chimpanzees. Overall, our studies suggest that cognitive, emotional and physiological underpinnings of social attention are well conserved among great apes and humans.
Keywords: Action anticipation, Anticipatory look, Eye contact, Eye movement, Eye tracking, Gaze following, Great ape, Memory
Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion
Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion. Shigeru Watanabe and Yutaka Kosaki. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 273-299, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-4-431-56559-8_13
Abstract: An important function of emotion is to enable individuals to adapt to the environment through induction of physiological and behavioral responses directly toward, or in anticipation of, biologically significant events such as food and predators. Another important function is to provide a social signal for other individuals in the group. This emotional signal often induces the same emotional state in the observer, a process called emotional contagion, which serves as a surrogate for others to learn through observation and provide cues to take actions in pro-social ways or, on occasions, in Machiavellian ways. Empathy, a term used to encompass these various social functions of emotion, is thus crucial for the survival of many species of animals including humans. In this chapter, we review literature concerning experimental studies of empathy in the laboratory animals, mostly rodents, which could provide a clue to understand the evolutionary origin of empathy. We first review basic findings concerning emotional contagion and introduce recent studies that examined the importance of social comparison in automatic empathetic responses, which indicate that the nonstandard forms of empathy such as envy, schadenfreude, as well as inequity aversion, may exist in rodents. We then discuss the functional significance of empathy by reviewing literature on observational learning and helping behavior. We then offer mechanistic analyses of empathy on the basis of the principles of associative learning. Finally, we discuss the evolutionary origin of social comparison.
Keywords: Emotional contagion Social comparison Envy Schadenfreude Pro-social behavior Associative learning Sexual selection
Abstract: An important function of emotion is to enable individuals to adapt to the environment through induction of physiological and behavioral responses directly toward, or in anticipation of, biologically significant events such as food and predators. Another important function is to provide a social signal for other individuals in the group. This emotional signal often induces the same emotional state in the observer, a process called emotional contagion, which serves as a surrogate for others to learn through observation and provide cues to take actions in pro-social ways or, on occasions, in Machiavellian ways. Empathy, a term used to encompass these various social functions of emotion, is thus crucial for the survival of many species of animals including humans. In this chapter, we review literature concerning experimental studies of empathy in the laboratory animals, mostly rodents, which could provide a clue to understand the evolutionary origin of empathy. We first review basic findings concerning emotional contagion and introduce recent studies that examined the importance of social comparison in automatic empathetic responses, which indicate that the nonstandard forms of empathy such as envy, schadenfreude, as well as inequity aversion, may exist in rodents. We then discuss the functional significance of empathy by reviewing literature on observational learning and helping behavior. We then offer mechanistic analyses of empathy on the basis of the principles of associative learning. Finally, we discuss the evolutionary origin of social comparison.
Keywords: Emotional contagion Social comparison Envy Schadenfreude Pro-social behavior Associative learning Sexual selection
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
The effect of taste and label on the liking of cola drinks by school children: Taste did not have any significant effect
Bartneck, Christoph, and Hanna Bartneck. 2017. “Interaction of Brand and Taste in the Liking of Cola Drinks by School Children”. PsyArXiv. August 21. https://psyarxiv.com/fzjwv
Abstract: Sugar sweetened soft drinks play an important role in obesity and world wide brands, such as Coca Cola, spend considerable resources on branding and advertising. As a result, their soft drinks tend to be up to 2.5 times more expensive than store brand cola drinks. We investigated the effect that the taste and the label has on the liking of cola drinks by school children. Taste did not have any significant effect and there was a significant interaction effect between the label and the taste. The children preferred cola drinks with their correct labels. A familiar brand with a familiar taste is liked more and the Coca-Cola company with its large advertising campaign and market share take advantage of this effect.
My comment: Are you sure of any important role of sodas in obesity?
Abstract: Sugar sweetened soft drinks play an important role in obesity and world wide brands, such as Coca Cola, spend considerable resources on branding and advertising. As a result, their soft drinks tend to be up to 2.5 times more expensive than store brand cola drinks. We investigated the effect that the taste and the label has on the liking of cola drinks by school children. Taste did not have any significant effect and there was a significant interaction effect between the label and the taste. The children preferred cola drinks with their correct labels. A familiar brand with a familiar taste is liked more and the Coca-Cola company with its large advertising campaign and market share take advantage of this effect.
My comment: Are you sure of any important role of sodas in obesity?
Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics
Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114 no. 36, pp 9587–9592, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704882114
Significance: Public opinion toward some science and technology issues is polarized along religious and political lines. We investigate whether people with more education and greater science knowledge tend to express beliefs that are more (or less) polarized. Using data from the nationally representative General Social Survey, we find that more knowledgeable individuals are more likely to express beliefs consistent with their religious or political identities for issues that have become polarized along those lines (e.g., stem cell research, human evolution), but not for issues that are controversial on other grounds (e.g., genetically modified foods). These patterns suggest that scientific knowledge may facilitate defending positions motivated by nonscientific concerns.
Abstract: Although Americans generally hold science in high regard and respect its findings, for some contested issues, such as the existence of anthropogenic climate change, public opinion is polarized along religious and political lines. We ask whether individuals with more general education and greater science knowledge, measured in terms of science education and science literacy, display more (or less) polarized beliefs on several such issues. We report secondary analyses of a nationally representative dataset (the General Social Survey), examining the predictors of beliefs regarding six potentially controversial issues. We find that beliefs are correlated with both political and religious identity for stem cell research, the Big Bang, and human evolution, and with political identity alone on climate change. Individuals with greater education, science education, and science literacy display more polarized beliefs on these issues. We find little evidence of political or religious polarization regarding nanotechnology and genetically modified foods. On all six topics, people who trust the scientific enterprise more are also more likely to accept its findings. We discuss the causal mechanisms that might underlie the correlation between education and identity-based polarization.
Keywords: science, literacy, polarization, science communication, science education, trust
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More at "The tribal nature of the human mind leads people to value party dogma over truth; those with political sophistication, science literacy, numeracy abilities, and cognitive reflection are more affected" http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html
Significance: Public opinion toward some science and technology issues is polarized along religious and political lines. We investigate whether people with more education and greater science knowledge tend to express beliefs that are more (or less) polarized. Using data from the nationally representative General Social Survey, we find that more knowledgeable individuals are more likely to express beliefs consistent with their religious or political identities for issues that have become polarized along those lines (e.g., stem cell research, human evolution), but not for issues that are controversial on other grounds (e.g., genetically modified foods). These patterns suggest that scientific knowledge may facilitate defending positions motivated by nonscientific concerns.
Abstract: Although Americans generally hold science in high regard and respect its findings, for some contested issues, such as the existence of anthropogenic climate change, public opinion is polarized along religious and political lines. We ask whether individuals with more general education and greater science knowledge, measured in terms of science education and science literacy, display more (or less) polarized beliefs on several such issues. We report secondary analyses of a nationally representative dataset (the General Social Survey), examining the predictors of beliefs regarding six potentially controversial issues. We find that beliefs are correlated with both political and religious identity for stem cell research, the Big Bang, and human evolution, and with political identity alone on climate change. Individuals with greater education, science education, and science literacy display more polarized beliefs on these issues. We find little evidence of political or religious polarization regarding nanotechnology and genetically modified foods. On all six topics, people who trust the scientific enterprise more are also more likely to accept its findings. We discuss the causal mechanisms that might underlie the correlation between education and identity-based polarization.
Keywords: science, literacy, polarization, science communication, science education, trust
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More at "The tribal nature of the human mind leads people to value party dogma over truth; those with political sophistication, science literacy, numeracy abilities, and cognitive reflection are more affected" http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html
Seeing faces: The role of brand visual processing and social connection in brand liking
Seeing faces: The role of brand visual processing and social connection in brand liking. Ulrich Orth et al. European Journal of Social Psychology, April 2017, Pages 348–361, doi 10.1002/ejsp.2245
Abstract: This paper investigates how brands — through visuals — can fill a void for consumers experiencing a lack of social connection. Using psychometric measures and mock advertisements with visuals of human faces and non-faces, Study 1 shows that seeing faces relates to greater brand liking with processing fluency mediating, and individual loneliness and tendency to anthropomorphize moderating the effect. Study 2 replicates findings with other-race faces corroborating that fluency but not ethnic self-referencing underlies the effect. Study 3 complements the psychometric measures of Studies 1 and 2 with eye tracking data to demonstrate that fluency correlates with distinct patterns of attention. Study 4 uses actual brand stimuli to show that effects are robust and extend beyond advertisements. Taken together, the findings show that communicating brand names in conjunction with visuals seen by consumers as human faces can increase brand liking.
Abstract: This paper investigates how brands — through visuals — can fill a void for consumers experiencing a lack of social connection. Using psychometric measures and mock advertisements with visuals of human faces and non-faces, Study 1 shows that seeing faces relates to greater brand liking with processing fluency mediating, and individual loneliness and tendency to anthropomorphize moderating the effect. Study 2 replicates findings with other-race faces corroborating that fluency but not ethnic self-referencing underlies the effect. Study 3 complements the psychometric measures of Studies 1 and 2 with eye tracking data to demonstrate that fluency correlates with distinct patterns of attention. Study 4 uses actual brand stimuli to show that effects are robust and extend beyond advertisements. Taken together, the findings show that communicating brand names in conjunction with visuals seen by consumers as human faces can increase brand liking.
Consumers perceive that a product made by mistake is more improbable, and thus, more unique than an intentional one
Made by Mistake: When Mistakes Increase Product Preference. Taly Reich, Daniella Kupor and Rosanna Smith. Journal of Consumer Research, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucx089
Abstract: Significant literature has demonstrated that mistakes are undesirable and often result in negative inferences about the person or company that made the mistake. Consequently, individuals and companies tend to avoid sharing information about their mistakes with others. However, we find that consumers actually prefer products that were made by mistake to otherwise identical products that were made intentionally. This preference arises because consumers perceive that a product made by mistake is more improbable relative to a product made intentionally, and thus, view the product as more unique. We find converging evidence for this preference in a field study, six experiments, and eBay auction sales. Importantly, this preference holds regardless of whether the mistake enhances or detracts from the product. However, in domains where consumers do not value uniqueness (e.g., utilitarian goods), the preference is eliminated.
Abstract: Significant literature has demonstrated that mistakes are undesirable and often result in negative inferences about the person or company that made the mistake. Consequently, individuals and companies tend to avoid sharing information about their mistakes with others. However, we find that consumers actually prefer products that were made by mistake to otherwise identical products that were made intentionally. This preference arises because consumers perceive that a product made by mistake is more improbable relative to a product made intentionally, and thus, view the product as more unique. We find converging evidence for this preference in a field study, six experiments, and eBay auction sales. Importantly, this preference holds regardless of whether the mistake enhances or detracts from the product. However, in domains where consumers do not value uniqueness (e.g., utilitarian goods), the preference is eliminated.
Hidden Cost of Insurance on Cooperation: the presumed safeguard against the risk of betrayal may increase the probability of betrayal
van de Calseyde, P. P. F. M., Keren, G., and Zeelenberg, M. (2017) The Hidden Cost of Insurance on Cooperation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2033.
Abstract: A common solution to mitigate risk is to buy insurance. Employing the trust game, we find that buying insurance against the risk of betrayal has a hidden cost: trustees are more likely to act opportunistically when trustors choose to be insured against the breach of trust. Supposedly, trustees are less likely to cooperate when trustors buy insurance because choosing insurance implicitly signals that the trustor expects the trustee to behave opportunistically, paradoxically encouraging trustees not to cooperate. These results shed new light on the potential drawbacks of financial safeguards that are intended to minimize the risky nature of trust taking: the presumed safeguard against the risk of betrayal may, under certain circumstances, increase the probability of betrayal.
Abstract: A common solution to mitigate risk is to buy insurance. Employing the trust game, we find that buying insurance against the risk of betrayal has a hidden cost: trustees are more likely to act opportunistically when trustors choose to be insured against the breach of trust. Supposedly, trustees are less likely to cooperate when trustors buy insurance because choosing insurance implicitly signals that the trustor expects the trustee to behave opportunistically, paradoxically encouraging trustees not to cooperate. These results shed new light on the potential drawbacks of financial safeguards that are intended to minimize the risky nature of trust taking: the presumed safeguard against the risk of betrayal may, under certain circumstances, increase the probability of betrayal.
Still an Agenda Setter: Traditional News Media and Public Opinion During the Transition From Low to High Choice Media Environments
Djerf-Pierre, M. and Shehata, A. (2017), Still an Agenda Setter: Traditional News Media and Public Opinion During the Transition From Low to High Choice Media Environments. J Commun. doi:10.1111/jcom.12327
Abstract: This study analyzes whether the agenda-setting influence of traditional news media has become weaker over time—a key argument in the “new era of minimal effects” controversy. Based on media content and public opinion data collected in Sweden over a period of 23 years (1992–2014), we analyze both aggregate and individual-level agenda-setting effects on public opinion concerning 12 different political issues. Taken together, ***we find very little evidence that the traditional news media has become less influential as agenda setters. Rather, citizens appear as responsive to issue signals from the collective media agenda today as during the low-choice era***. We discuss these findings in terms of cross-national differences in media systems and opportunity structures for selective exposure.
Abstract: This study analyzes whether the agenda-setting influence of traditional news media has become weaker over time—a key argument in the “new era of minimal effects” controversy. Based on media content and public opinion data collected in Sweden over a period of 23 years (1992–2014), we analyze both aggregate and individual-level agenda-setting effects on public opinion concerning 12 different political issues. Taken together, ***we find very little evidence that the traditional news media has become less influential as agenda setters. Rather, citizens appear as responsive to issue signals from the collective media agenda today as during the low-choice era***. We discuss these findings in terms of cross-national differences in media systems and opportunity structures for selective exposure.
Women are more compassionate than men, but that does not explain the gender gap in partisanship
Blinder, S. and Rolfe, M. (2017), Rethinking Compassion: Toward a Political Account of the Partisan Gender Gap in the United States. Political Psychology. doi:10.1111/pops.12447
Abstract: Scholarship on the political gender gap in the United States has attributed women's political views to their greater compassion, yet individual-level measures of compassion have almost never been used to directly examine such claims. We address this issue using the only nationally representative survey to include psychometrically validated measures of compassion alongside appropriate political variables. We show that ***even though women are more compassionate in the aggregate than men in some respects, this added compassion does not explain the gender gap in partisanship***. Female respondents report having more tender feelings towards the less fortunate, but these empathetic feelings are not associated with partisan identity. Women also show a slightly greater commitment to a principle of care, but this principle accounts for little of the partisan gap between men and women and has no significant relationship with partisanship after accounting for gender differences in egalitarian political values.
Abstract: Scholarship on the political gender gap in the United States has attributed women's political views to their greater compassion, yet individual-level measures of compassion have almost never been used to directly examine such claims. We address this issue using the only nationally representative survey to include psychometrically validated measures of compassion alongside appropriate political variables. We show that ***even though women are more compassionate in the aggregate than men in some respects, this added compassion does not explain the gender gap in partisanship***. Female respondents report having more tender feelings towards the less fortunate, but these empathetic feelings are not associated with partisan identity. Women also show a slightly greater commitment to a principle of care, but this principle accounts for little of the partisan gap between men and women and has no significant relationship with partisanship after accounting for gender differences in egalitarian political values.
How Dodd-Frank Doubles Down on 'Too Big to Fail'
Two major flaws mean that the act doesn't address problems that led to the financial crisis of 2008.
By Charles W. Calomiris And Allan H. Meltzer
Feb. 12, 2014 6:44 p.m. ET
The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in 2010, mandated hundreds of major regulations to control bank risk-taking, with the aim of preventing a repeat of the taxpayer bailouts of "too big to fail" financial institutions. These regulations are on top of many rules adopted after the 2008 financial crisis to make banks more secure. Yet at a Senate hearing in January, Elizabeth Warren asked a bipartisan panel of four economists (including Allan Meltzer ) whether the Dodd-Frank Act would end the problem of too-big-to-fail banks. Every one answered no.
Dodd-Frank's approach to regulating bank risk has two major flaws. First, its standards and rules require regulatory enforcement instead of giving bankers strong incentives to maintain safety and soundness of their own institutions. Second, the regulatory framework attempts to prevent any individual bank from failing, instead of preventing the collapse of the payments and credit systems.
The principal danger to the banking system arises when fear and uncertainty about the value of bank assets induces the widespread refusal by banks to accept each other's short-term debts. Such refusals can lead to a collapse of the interbank payments system, a dramatic contraction of bank credit, and a general loss in confidence by consumers and businesses—all of which can have dire economic consequences. The proper goal is thus to make the banking system sufficiently resilient so that no single failure can result in a general collapse.
Part of the current confusion over regulatory means and ends reflects a mistaken understanding of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The collapse of interbank credit in September 2008 was not the automatic consequence of Lehman's failure.
Rather, it resulted from a widespread market perception that many large banks were at significant risk of failing. This perception didn't develop overnight. It had evolved steadily and visibly over more than two years, while regulators and politicians did nothing.
Citigroup's equity-to-assets ratio, measured in market value—the best single comprehensive measure of a bank's financial strength—fell steadily from about 13% in April 2006 to about 3% by September 2008. And that low value reflected an even lower perception of fundamental asset worth, because the 3% market value included the value of an expected bailout. Lehman's collapse was simply the match in the tinder box. If other banks had been sufficiently safe and sound at the time of Lehman's demise, then the financial system would not have been brought to its knees by a single failure.
To ensure systemwide resiliency, most of Dodd-Frank's regulations should be replaced by measures requiring large, systemically important banks to increase their capacity to deal with losses. The first step would be to substantially raise the minimum ratio of the book value of their equity relative to the book value of their assets.
The Brown-Vitter bill now before Congress (the Terminating Bailouts for Taxpayer Fairness Act) would raise that minimum ratio to 15%, roughly a threefold increase from current levels. Although reasonable people can disagree about the optimal minimum ratio—one could argue that a 10% ratio would be adequate in the presence of additional safeguards—15% is not an arbitrary number.
At the onset of the Great Depression, large New York City banks all maintained more than 15% of their assets in equity, and none of them succumbed to the worst banking system shocks in U.S. history from 1929 to 1932. The losses suffered by major banks in the recent crisis would not have wiped out their equity if it had been equal to 15% of their assets.
Bankers and their supervisors often find it mutually convenient to understate expected loan losses and thereby overstate equity values. The problem is magnified when equity requirements are expressed relative to "risk-weighted assets," allowing regulators to permit banks' models to underestimate their risks.
This is not a hypothetical issue. In December 2008, when Citi was effectively insolvent, and the market's valuation of its equity correctly reflected that fact, the bank's accounts showed a risk-based capital ratio of 11.8% and a risk-based Tier 1 capital ratio (meant to include only high-quality, equity-like capital) of about 7%. Moreover, factors such as a drop in bank fee income can affect the actual value of a bank's equity, regardless of the riskiness of its loans.
For these reasons, large banks' book equity requirements need to be buttressed by other measures. One is a minimum requirement that banks maintain cash reserves (New York City banks during the Depression maintained cash reserves in excess of 25%). Cash held at the central bank provides protection against default risk similar to equity capital, but it has the advantage of being observable and incapable of being fudged by esoteric risk-modeling.
Several researchers have suggested a variety of ways to supplement simple equity and cash requirements with creative contractual devices that would give bankers strong incentives to make sure that they maintain adequate capital. In the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (2013), Charles Calomiris and Richard Herring propose debt that converts to equity whenever the market value ratio of a bank's equity is below 9% for more than 90 days. Since the conversion would significantly dilute the value of the stock held by pre-existing shareholders, a bank CEO will have a big incentive to avoid it.
There is plenty of room to debate the details, but the essential reform is to place responsibility for absorbing a bank's losses on banks and their owners. Dodd-Frank institutionalizes too-big-to-fail protection by explicitly permitting bailouts via a "resolution authority" provision at the discretion of government authorities, financed by taxes on surviving banks—and by taxpayers should these bank taxes be insufficient. That provision should be repealed and replaced by clear rules that can't be gamed by bank managers.
Mr. Calomiris is the co-author (with Stephen Haber ) of "Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit" (Princeton, 2014). Mr. Meltzer is the author of "Why Capitalism?" (Oxford, 2012). They co-direct (with Kenneth Scott ) the new program on Regulation and the Rule of Law at the Hoover Institution.
Two major flaws mean that the act doesn't address problems that led to the financial crisis of 2008.
By Charles W. Calomiris And Allan H. Meltzer
Feb. 12, 2014 6:44 p.m. ET
The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in 2010, mandated hundreds of major regulations to control bank risk-taking, with the aim of preventing a repeat of the taxpayer bailouts of "too big to fail" financial institutions. These regulations are on top of many rules adopted after the 2008 financial crisis to make banks more secure. Yet at a Senate hearing in January, Elizabeth Warren asked a bipartisan panel of four economists (including Allan Meltzer ) whether the Dodd-Frank Act would end the problem of too-big-to-fail banks. Every one answered no.
Dodd-Frank's approach to regulating bank risk has two major flaws. First, its standards and rules require regulatory enforcement instead of giving bankers strong incentives to maintain safety and soundness of their own institutions. Second, the regulatory framework attempts to prevent any individual bank from failing, instead of preventing the collapse of the payments and credit systems.
The principal danger to the banking system arises when fear and uncertainty about the value of bank assets induces the widespread refusal by banks to accept each other's short-term debts. Such refusals can lead to a collapse of the interbank payments system, a dramatic contraction of bank credit, and a general loss in confidence by consumers and businesses—all of which can have dire economic consequences. The proper goal is thus to make the banking system sufficiently resilient so that no single failure can result in a general collapse.
Part of the current confusion over regulatory means and ends reflects a mistaken understanding of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The collapse of interbank credit in September 2008 was not the automatic consequence of Lehman's failure.
Rather, it resulted from a widespread market perception that many large banks were at significant risk of failing. This perception didn't develop overnight. It had evolved steadily and visibly over more than two years, while regulators and politicians did nothing.
Citigroup's equity-to-assets ratio, measured in market value—the best single comprehensive measure of a bank's financial strength—fell steadily from about 13% in April 2006 to about 3% by September 2008. And that low value reflected an even lower perception of fundamental asset worth, because the 3% market value included the value of an expected bailout. Lehman's collapse was simply the match in the tinder box. If other banks had been sufficiently safe and sound at the time of Lehman's demise, then the financial system would not have been brought to its knees by a single failure.
To ensure systemwide resiliency, most of Dodd-Frank's regulations should be replaced by measures requiring large, systemically important banks to increase their capacity to deal with losses. The first step would be to substantially raise the minimum ratio of the book value of their equity relative to the book value of their assets.
The Brown-Vitter bill now before Congress (the Terminating Bailouts for Taxpayer Fairness Act) would raise that minimum ratio to 15%, roughly a threefold increase from current levels. Although reasonable people can disagree about the optimal minimum ratio—one could argue that a 10% ratio would be adequate in the presence of additional safeguards—15% is not an arbitrary number.
At the onset of the Great Depression, large New York City banks all maintained more than 15% of their assets in equity, and none of them succumbed to the worst banking system shocks in U.S. history from 1929 to 1932. The losses suffered by major banks in the recent crisis would not have wiped out their equity if it had been equal to 15% of their assets.
Bankers and their supervisors often find it mutually convenient to understate expected loan losses and thereby overstate equity values. The problem is magnified when equity requirements are expressed relative to "risk-weighted assets," allowing regulators to permit banks' models to underestimate their risks.
This is not a hypothetical issue. In December 2008, when Citi was effectively insolvent, and the market's valuation of its equity correctly reflected that fact, the bank's accounts showed a risk-based capital ratio of 11.8% and a risk-based Tier 1 capital ratio (meant to include only high-quality, equity-like capital) of about 7%. Moreover, factors such as a drop in bank fee income can affect the actual value of a bank's equity, regardless of the riskiness of its loans.
For these reasons, large banks' book equity requirements need to be buttressed by other measures. One is a minimum requirement that banks maintain cash reserves (New York City banks during the Depression maintained cash reserves in excess of 25%). Cash held at the central bank provides protection against default risk similar to equity capital, but it has the advantage of being observable and incapable of being fudged by esoteric risk-modeling.
Several researchers have suggested a variety of ways to supplement simple equity and cash requirements with creative contractual devices that would give bankers strong incentives to make sure that they maintain adequate capital. In the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (2013), Charles Calomiris and Richard Herring propose debt that converts to equity whenever the market value ratio of a bank's equity is below 9% for more than 90 days. Since the conversion would significantly dilute the value of the stock held by pre-existing shareholders, a bank CEO will have a big incentive to avoid it.
There is plenty of room to debate the details, but the essential reform is to place responsibility for absorbing a bank's losses on banks and their owners. Dodd-Frank institutionalizes too-big-to-fail protection by explicitly permitting bailouts via a "resolution authority" provision at the discretion of government authorities, financed by taxes on surviving banks—and by taxpayers should these bank taxes be insufficient. That provision should be repealed and replaced by clear rules that can't be gamed by bank managers.
Mr. Calomiris is the co-author (with Stephen Haber ) of "Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit" (Princeton, 2014). Mr. Meltzer is the author of "Why Capitalism?" (Oxford, 2012). They co-direct (with Kenneth Scott ) the new program on Regulation and the Rule of Law at the Hoover Institution.
Meritocracy Not Racial Discrimination Explains the Racial Income Gap: An Analysis of NLSY 1979
Kirkegaard, Emil O W. 2017. “Meritocracy Not Racial Discrimination Explains the Racial Income Gap: An Analysis of NLSY 1979”. PsyArXiv. September 5. https://psyarxiv.com/qty3n
Abstract: Socially defined racial groups usually differ in average incomes, though the causes of this are contested. Here the NLSY1979 (National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, n > 11k) was analyzed to examine the relative importance of cognitive ability, market-irrelevant racial discrimination and cultural self-identification for predicting long term income (average of 25 years). The use of both self- and other-perceived racial group plausibly allows one to distinguish between effects related to how others perceive one’s racial group vs. how individuals perceive themselves. Results indicated that other-perceived Black and Hispanic racial status was associated with either no difference or slightly higher incomes when cognitive ability was controlled for (betas 0.15 and 0.11, respectively), whereas self-perceived Black status was negatively negatively to income (beta = -0.24). Other self-perceived racial statuses has no clearly detectable effect.
Results were interpreted as being mainly congruent with meritocracy and inconsistent with market-irrelevant racial discrimination models.
Abstract: Socially defined racial groups usually differ in average incomes, though the causes of this are contested. Here the NLSY1979 (National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, n > 11k) was analyzed to examine the relative importance of cognitive ability, market-irrelevant racial discrimination and cultural self-identification for predicting long term income (average of 25 years). The use of both self- and other-perceived racial group plausibly allows one to distinguish between effects related to how others perceive one’s racial group vs. how individuals perceive themselves. Results indicated that other-perceived Black and Hispanic racial status was associated with either no difference or slightly higher incomes when cognitive ability was controlled for (betas 0.15 and 0.11, respectively), whereas self-perceived Black status was negatively negatively to income (beta = -0.24). Other self-perceived racial statuses has no clearly detectable effect.
Results were interpreted as being mainly congruent with meritocracy and inconsistent with market-irrelevant racial discrimination models.
Minimum wage increases increase the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed
People Versus Machines: The Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs. Grace Lordan and David Neumark. NBER Working Paper, August 2017, http://www.nber.org/papers/w23667
Abstract: We study the effect of minimum wage increases on employment in automatable jobs – jobs in which employers may find it easier to substitute machines for people – focusing on low-skilled workers from whom such substitution may be spurred by minimum wage increases. Based on CPS data from 1980-2015, we find that ***increasing the minimum wage decreases significantly the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled workers, and increases the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed***. The average effects mask significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including substantive adverse effects for older, low-skilled workers in manufacturing. The findings imply that ***groups often ignored in the minimum wage literature are in fact quite vulnerable to employment changes and job loss because of automation following a minimum wage increase.***
Abstract: We study the effect of minimum wage increases on employment in automatable jobs – jobs in which employers may find it easier to substitute machines for people – focusing on low-skilled workers from whom such substitution may be spurred by minimum wage increases. Based on CPS data from 1980-2015, we find that ***increasing the minimum wage decreases significantly the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled workers, and increases the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed***. The average effects mask significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including substantive adverse effects for older, low-skilled workers in manufacturing. The findings imply that ***groups often ignored in the minimum wage literature are in fact quite vulnerable to employment changes and job loss because of automation following a minimum wage increase.***
A corporate income tax cut can reduce the non-employment rate by up to 7pct
Corporate Income Tax, Legal Form of Organization, and Employment. Daphne Chen, Shi Shao Qi and Don Schlagenhauf. Federal Reserve Working Paper, July 2017, https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2014/2014-018.pdf
Abstract: A dynamic stochastic occupational choice model with heterogeneous agents is developed to evaluate the impact of a corporate income tax reduction on employment. In this framework, the key margin is the endogenous entrepreneurial choice of the legal form of organization (LFO). A reduction in the corporate income tax burden encourages adoption of the C corporation legal form, which reduces capital constraints on firms. Improved capital re-allocation increases overall productive efficiency in the economy and therefore expands the labor market. Relative to the benchmark economy, a corporate income tax cut can reduce the non-employment rate by up to 7 percent.
Abstract: A dynamic stochastic occupational choice model with heterogeneous agents is developed to evaluate the impact of a corporate income tax reduction on employment. In this framework, the key margin is the endogenous entrepreneurial choice of the legal form of organization (LFO). A reduction in the corporate income tax burden encourages adoption of the C corporation legal form, which reduces capital constraints on firms. Improved capital re-allocation increases overall productive efficiency in the economy and therefore expands the labor market. Relative to the benchmark economy, a corporate income tax cut can reduce the non-employment rate by up to 7 percent.
Studying the Effect of Hard and Soft News Exposure on Mental Well-Being Over Time
Studying the Effect of Hard and Soft News Exposure on Mental Well-Being Over Time. Mark Boukes and Rens Vliegenthart. Journal of Media Psychology (2017), 29, pp. 137-147. https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-1105/a000224.
Abstract. Following the news is generally understood to be crucial for democracy as it allows citizens to politically participate in an informed manner; yet, one may wonder about the unintended side effects it has for the mental well-being of citizens. With news focusing on the negative and worrisome events in the world, framing that evokes a sense of powerlessness, and lack of entertainment value, this study hypothesizes that news consumption decreases mental well-being via negative hedonic experiences; thereby, we differentiate between hard and soft news. Using a panel survey in combination with latent growth curve modeling (n = 2,767), we demonstrate that ***the consumption of hard news television programs has a negative effect on the development of mental well-being over time. Soft news consumption, by contrast, has a marginally positive impact on the trend in well-being***. This can be explained by the differential topic focus, framing and style of soft news vis-à-vis hard news. Investigating the effects of news consumption on mental well-being provides insight into the impact news exposure has on variables other than the political ones, which definitively are not less societally relevant.
Keywords: news consumption, mental well-being, hedonic experiences, negativity, hard versus soft news
Abstract. Following the news is generally understood to be crucial for democracy as it allows citizens to politically participate in an informed manner; yet, one may wonder about the unintended side effects it has for the mental well-being of citizens. With news focusing on the negative and worrisome events in the world, framing that evokes a sense of powerlessness, and lack of entertainment value, this study hypothesizes that news consumption decreases mental well-being via negative hedonic experiences; thereby, we differentiate between hard and soft news. Using a panel survey in combination with latent growth curve modeling (n = 2,767), we demonstrate that ***the consumption of hard news television programs has a negative effect on the development of mental well-being over time. Soft news consumption, by contrast, has a marginally positive impact on the trend in well-being***. This can be explained by the differential topic focus, framing and style of soft news vis-à-vis hard news. Investigating the effects of news consumption on mental well-being provides insight into the impact news exposure has on variables other than the political ones, which definitively are not less societally relevant.
Keywords: news consumption, mental well-being, hedonic experiences, negativity, hard versus soft news
Trash-talking: Competitive incivility motivates rivalry, performance, and unethical behavior
Trash-talking: Competitive incivility motivates rivalry, performance, and unethical behavior. Jeremy Yip, Maurice Schweitzer & Samir Nurmohamed. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2737109
Abstract: Trash-talking increases the psychological stakes of competition and motivates targets to outperform their opponents. In Studies 1 and 2, participants in a competition who were targets of trash-talking outperformed participants who faced the same economic incentives, but were not targets of trash-talking. Perceptions of rivalry mediate the relationship between trash-talking and effort-based performance. In Study 3, we find that targets of trash-talking were particularly motivated to punish their opponents and see them lose. In Study 4, we identify a boundary condition, and show that trash-talking increases effort in competitive interactions, but incivility decreases effort in cooperative interactions. In Study 5, we find that targets of trash-talking were more likely to cheat in a competition than were participants who received neutral messages. In Study 6, we demonstrate that trash-talking harms performance when the performance task involves creativity. Taken together, our findings reveal that trash-talking is a common workplace behavior that can foster rivalry and motivate both constructive and destructive behavior.
Abstract: Trash-talking increases the psychological stakes of competition and motivates targets to outperform their opponents. In Studies 1 and 2, participants in a competition who were targets of trash-talking outperformed participants who faced the same economic incentives, but were not targets of trash-talking. Perceptions of rivalry mediate the relationship between trash-talking and effort-based performance. In Study 3, we find that targets of trash-talking were particularly motivated to punish their opponents and see them lose. In Study 4, we identify a boundary condition, and show that trash-talking increases effort in competitive interactions, but incivility decreases effort in cooperative interactions. In Study 5, we find that targets of trash-talking were more likely to cheat in a competition than were participants who received neutral messages. In Study 6, we demonstrate that trash-talking harms performance when the performance task involves creativity. Taken together, our findings reveal that trash-talking is a common workplace behavior that can foster rivalry and motivate both constructive and destructive behavior.
Changes in the Subjectively Experienced Severity of Detention: Exploring Individual Differences
Changes in the Subjectively Experienced Severity of Detention: Exploring Individual Differences. Ellen A. C. Raaijmakers et al. The Prison Journal, https://doi.org/10.1177/0032885517728902
Abstract: A core assumption underlying deterrent sentencing and just deserts theory is that the severity of imprisonment is merely dependent upon its duration. However, empirical research examining how inmates’ subjectively experienced severity of detention (SESD) changes as a function of the length of confinement remains sparse. This study assesses changes in inmates’ SESD over the course of confinement and seeks to explain this process. Multilevel analyses revealed considerable change in the SESD over the course of confinement. Although individual characteristics are related to inmates’ initial SESD, they are not related to their pattern of change in SESD over the course of confinement.
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"although the SESD (subjectively experienced severity of detention) increases during the first 3 months, it decreases thereafter, stabilizing after 9 months of confinement"
Abstract: A core assumption underlying deterrent sentencing and just deserts theory is that the severity of imprisonment is merely dependent upon its duration. However, empirical research examining how inmates’ subjectively experienced severity of detention (SESD) changes as a function of the length of confinement remains sparse. This study assesses changes in inmates’ SESD over the course of confinement and seeks to explain this process. Multilevel analyses revealed considerable change in the SESD over the course of confinement. Although individual characteristics are related to inmates’ initial SESD, they are not related to their pattern of change in SESD over the course of confinement.
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"although the SESD (subjectively experienced severity of detention) increases during the first 3 months, it decreases thereafter, stabilizing after 9 months of confinement"
Monday, September 4, 2017
Revisiting the risk of automation
Revisiting the risk of automation. Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn. Economics Letters, Volume 159, October 2017, Pages 157-160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.07.001
Highlights
• Occupation-level approaches significantly overestimate automation potentials.
• Automation risk of US jobs drops from 38 to 9% when accounting for job-level tasks.
• 3 out of 4 jobs are less automatable compared to the median job of this occupation.
• Workers apparently specialize in non-automatable niches within their profession.
Abstract: In light of rapid advances in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, many scientists discuss the potentials of new technologies to substitute for human labour. Fuelling the economic debate, various empirical assessments suggest that up to half of all jobs in western industrialized countries are at risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years. This paper demonstrates that these scenarios are overestimating the share of automatable jobs by neglecting the substantial heterogeneity of tasks within occupations as well as the adaptability of jobs in the digital transformation. To demonstrate this, we use detailed task data and show that, when taking into accounting the spectrum of tasks within occupations, the automation risk of US jobs drops, ceteris paribus, from 38 % to 9 %.
Highlights
• Occupation-level approaches significantly overestimate automation potentials.
• Automation risk of US jobs drops from 38 to 9% when accounting for job-level tasks.
• 3 out of 4 jobs are less automatable compared to the median job of this occupation.
• Workers apparently specialize in non-automatable niches within their profession.
Abstract: In light of rapid advances in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, many scientists discuss the potentials of new technologies to substitute for human labour. Fuelling the economic debate, various empirical assessments suggest that up to half of all jobs in western industrialized countries are at risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years. This paper demonstrates that these scenarios are overestimating the share of automatable jobs by neglecting the substantial heterogeneity of tasks within occupations as well as the adaptability of jobs in the digital transformation. To demonstrate this, we use detailed task data and show that, when taking into accounting the spectrum of tasks within occupations, the automation risk of US jobs drops, ceteris paribus, from 38 % to 9 %.
Adult sex ratios and partner scarcity among hunter–gatherers: Implications for dispersal patterns and the evolution of human sociality
Adult sex ratios and partner scarcity among hunter–gatherers: Implications for dispersal patterns and the evolution of human sociality. Karen Kramer, Ryan Schacht and Adrian Bell. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, Sept 19 2017, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2016.0316
Abstract: Small populations are susceptible to high genetic loads and random fluctuations in birth and death rates. While these selective forces can adversely affect their viability, small populations persist across taxa. Here, we investigate the resilience of small groups to demographic uncertainty, and specifically to fluctuations in adult sex ratio (ASR), partner availability and dispersal patterns. Using 25 years of demographic data for two Savannah Pumé groups of South American hunter–gatherers, we show that in small human populations: (i) ASRs fluctuate substantially from year to year, but do not consistently trend in a sex-biased direction; (ii) the primary driver of local variation in partner availability is stochasticity in the sex ratio at maturity; and (iii) dispersal outside of the group is an important behavioural means to mediate locally constrained mating options. To then simulate conditions under which dispersal outside of the local group may have evolved, we develop two mathematical models. Model results predict that if the ASR is biased, the globally rarer sex should disperse. The model's utility is then evaluated by applying our empirical data to this central prediction. The results are consistent with the observed hunter–gatherer pattern of variation in the sex that disperses. Together, these findings offer an alternative explanation to resource provisioning for the evolution of traits central to human sociality (e.g. flexible dispersal, bilocal post-marital residence and cooperation across local groups). We argue that in small populations, looking outside of one's local group is necessary to find a mate and that, motivated by ASR imbalance, the alliances formed to facilitate the movement of partners are an important foundation for the human-typical pattern of network formation across local groups.
KEYWORDS: Savannah Pumé; adult sex ratio; dispersal; human evolution; hunter–gatherers; sexual selection
Abstract: Small populations are susceptible to high genetic loads and random fluctuations in birth and death rates. While these selective forces can adversely affect their viability, small populations persist across taxa. Here, we investigate the resilience of small groups to demographic uncertainty, and specifically to fluctuations in adult sex ratio (ASR), partner availability and dispersal patterns. Using 25 years of demographic data for two Savannah Pumé groups of South American hunter–gatherers, we show that in small human populations: (i) ASRs fluctuate substantially from year to year, but do not consistently trend in a sex-biased direction; (ii) the primary driver of local variation in partner availability is stochasticity in the sex ratio at maturity; and (iii) dispersal outside of the group is an important behavioural means to mediate locally constrained mating options. To then simulate conditions under which dispersal outside of the local group may have evolved, we develop two mathematical models. Model results predict that if the ASR is biased, the globally rarer sex should disperse. The model's utility is then evaluated by applying our empirical data to this central prediction. The results are consistent with the observed hunter–gatherer pattern of variation in the sex that disperses. Together, these findings offer an alternative explanation to resource provisioning for the evolution of traits central to human sociality (e.g. flexible dispersal, bilocal post-marital residence and cooperation across local groups). We argue that in small populations, looking outside of one's local group is necessary to find a mate and that, motivated by ASR imbalance, the alliances formed to facilitate the movement of partners are an important foundation for the human-typical pattern of network formation across local groups.
KEYWORDS: Savannah Pumé; adult sex ratio; dispersal; human evolution; hunter–gatherers; sexual selection
Languages in Drier Climates Use Fewer Vowels
Languages in Drier Climates Use Fewer Vowels. Caleb Everett. Frontiers in Psychology, July 2017, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01285
Abstract: This study offers evidence for an environmental effect on languages while relying on continuous linguistic and continuous ecological variables. Evidence is presented for a positive association between the typical ambient humidity of a language’s native locale and that language’s degree of reliance on vowels. The vowel-usage rates of over 4000 language varieties were obtained, and several methods were employed to test whether these usage rates are associated with ambient humidity. The results of these methods are generally consistent with the notion that reduced ambient humidity eventually yields a reduced reliance of languages on vowels, when compared to consonants. The analysis controls simultaneously for linguistic phylogeny and contact between languages. The results dovetail with previous work, based on binned data, suggesting that consonantal phonemes are more common in some ecologies. In addition to being based on continuous data and a larger data sample, however, these findings are tied to experimental research suggesting that dry air affects the behavior of the larynx by yielding increased phonatory effort. The results of this study are also consistent with previous work suggesting an interaction of aridity and tonality. The data presented here suggest that languages may evolve, like the communication systems of other species, in ways that are influenced subtly by ecological factors. It is stressed that more work is required, however, to explore this association and to establish a causal relationship between ambient air characteristics and the development of languages.
KEYWORDS: adaptation; environment; evolution; language; phonetics; psychological
Abstract: This study offers evidence for an environmental effect on languages while relying on continuous linguistic and continuous ecological variables. Evidence is presented for a positive association between the typical ambient humidity of a language’s native locale and that language’s degree of reliance on vowels. The vowel-usage rates of over 4000 language varieties were obtained, and several methods were employed to test whether these usage rates are associated with ambient humidity. The results of these methods are generally consistent with the notion that reduced ambient humidity eventually yields a reduced reliance of languages on vowels, when compared to consonants. The analysis controls simultaneously for linguistic phylogeny and contact between languages. The results dovetail with previous work, based on binned data, suggesting that consonantal phonemes are more common in some ecologies. In addition to being based on continuous data and a larger data sample, however, these findings are tied to experimental research suggesting that dry air affects the behavior of the larynx by yielding increased phonatory effort. The results of this study are also consistent with previous work suggesting an interaction of aridity and tonality. The data presented here suggest that languages may evolve, like the communication systems of other species, in ways that are influenced subtly by ecological factors. It is stressed that more work is required, however, to explore this association and to establish a causal relationship between ambient air characteristics and the development of languages.
KEYWORDS: adaptation; environment; evolution; language; phonetics; psychological
Tennis grunts communicate acoustic cues to sex and contest outcome
Tennis grunts communicate acoustic cues to sex and contest outcome. Jordan Raine, Katarzyna Pisanski & David Reby. Animal Behaviour, Volume 130, August 2017, Pages 47-55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2017.06.022
Abstract: Despite their ubiquity in human behaviour, the communicative functions of nonverbal vocalizations remain poorly understood. Here, we analysed the acoustic structure of tennis grunts, nonverbal vocalizations produced in a competitive context. We predicted that tennis grunts convey information about the vocalizer and context, similar to nonhuman vocal displays. Specifically, we tested whether the fundamental frequency (F0) of tennis grunts conveys static cues to a player's sex, height, weight, and age, and covaries dynamically with tennis shot type (a proxy of body posture) and the progress and outcome of male and female professional tennis contests. We also performed playback experiments (using natural and resynthesized stimuli) to assess the perceptual relevance of tennis grunts. The F0 of tennis grunts predicted player sex, but not age or body size. Serve grunts had higher F0 than forehand and backhand grunts, grunts produced later in contests had higher F0 than those produced earlier, and grunts produced during contests that players won had a lower F0 than those produced during lost contests. This difference in F0 between losses and wins emerged early in matches, and did not change in magnitude as the match progressed, suggesting a possible role of physiological and/or psychological factors manifesting early or even before matches. Playbacks revealed that listeners use grunt F0 to infer sex and contest outcome. These findings indicate that tennis grunts communicate information about both the vocalizer and contest, consistent with nonhuman mammal vocalizations.
Abstract: Despite their ubiquity in human behaviour, the communicative functions of nonverbal vocalizations remain poorly understood. Here, we analysed the acoustic structure of tennis grunts, nonverbal vocalizations produced in a competitive context. We predicted that tennis grunts convey information about the vocalizer and context, similar to nonhuman vocal displays. Specifically, we tested whether the fundamental frequency (F0) of tennis grunts conveys static cues to a player's sex, height, weight, and age, and covaries dynamically with tennis shot type (a proxy of body posture) and the progress and outcome of male and female professional tennis contests. We also performed playback experiments (using natural and resynthesized stimuli) to assess the perceptual relevance of tennis grunts. The F0 of tennis grunts predicted player sex, but not age or body size. Serve grunts had higher F0 than forehand and backhand grunts, grunts produced later in contests had higher F0 than those produced earlier, and grunts produced during contests that players won had a lower F0 than those produced during lost contests. This difference in F0 between losses and wins emerged early in matches, and did not change in magnitude as the match progressed, suggesting a possible role of physiological and/or psychological factors manifesting early or even before matches. Playbacks revealed that listeners use grunt F0 to infer sex and contest outcome. These findings indicate that tennis grunts communicate information about both the vocalizer and contest, consistent with nonhuman mammal vocalizations.
The Perverse Effects of Subsidized Weather Insurance
Omri Ben-Shahar & Kyle D. Logue, "The Perverse Effects of Subsidized Weather Insurance," 68 Stanford Law Review 571 (2016).
Abstract. This Article explores the role of insurance as a substitute for direct regulation of risks posed by severe weather. In pricing the risk of human activity along the predicted path of storms, insurance can provide incentives for efficient location decisions as well as for cost-justified mitigation efforts in building construction and infrastructure. Currently, however, much insurance for severe-weather risks is provided and heavily subsidized by the government. This Article demonstrates two primary distortions arising from the government's dominance in these insurance markets. First, existing government subsidies are allocated differentially across households, resulting in a significant regressive redistribution favoring affluent homeowners in coastal communities. This Article provides some empirical measures of this effect. Second, existing government subsidies induce excessive development (and redevelopment) of storm-stricken and erosion-prone areas. While political efforts to scale back the insurance subsidies have so far failed, this Article contributes to a reevaluation of the social regulation of weather risk by exposing the unintended costs of government-subsidized insurance.
Abstract. This Article explores the role of insurance as a substitute for direct regulation of risks posed by severe weather. In pricing the risk of human activity along the predicted path of storms, insurance can provide incentives for efficient location decisions as well as for cost-justified mitigation efforts in building construction and infrastructure. Currently, however, much insurance for severe-weather risks is provided and heavily subsidized by the government. This Article demonstrates two primary distortions arising from the government's dominance in these insurance markets. First, existing government subsidies are allocated differentially across households, resulting in a significant regressive redistribution favoring affluent homeowners in coastal communities. This Article provides some empirical measures of this effect. Second, existing government subsidies induce excessive development (and redevelopment) of storm-stricken and erosion-prone areas. While political efforts to scale back the insurance subsidies have so far failed, this Article contributes to a reevaluation of the social regulation of weather risk by exposing the unintended costs of government-subsidized insurance.
Correcting for Bias in Psychology: A Comparison of Meta-analytic Methods
Carter, Evan C, Felix D Schönbrodt, Will M Gervais, and Joseph Hilgard. 2017. “Correcting for Bias in Psychology: A Comparison of Meta-analytic Methods”. PsyArXiv. September 1. https://psyarxiv.com/9h3nu
Abstract: Publication bias and questionable research practices in primary research can lead to badly overestimated effects in meta-analysis. Methodologists have proposed a variety of statistical approaches to correcting for such overestimation. However, much of this work has not been tailored specifically to psychology, so it is not clear which methods work best for data typically seen in our field. Here, we present a comprehensive simulation study to examine how some of the most promising meta-analytic methods perform on data typical of psychological research. We tried to mimic realistic scenarios by simulating several levels of questionable research practices, publication bias, and heterogeneity, using study sample sizes empirically derived from the literature. Our results indicate that one method – the three-parameter selection model (Iyengar & Greenhouse, 1988; McShane, Böckenholt, & Hansen, 2016) – generally performs better than trim-and-fill, p-curve, p-uniform, PET, PEESE, or PET-PEESE, and that some of these other methods should typically not be used at all. However, it is unknown whether the success of the three-parameter selection model is due to the match between its assumptions and our modeling strategy, so future work is needed to further test its robustness. Despite this, we generally recommend that meta-analysts of data in psychology use the three-parameter selection model. Moreover, we strongly recommend that researchers in psychology continue their efforts on improving the primary literature and conducting large-scale, pre-registered replications.
Abstract: Publication bias and questionable research practices in primary research can lead to badly overestimated effects in meta-analysis. Methodologists have proposed a variety of statistical approaches to correcting for such overestimation. However, much of this work has not been tailored specifically to psychology, so it is not clear which methods work best for data typically seen in our field. Here, we present a comprehensive simulation study to examine how some of the most promising meta-analytic methods perform on data typical of psychological research. We tried to mimic realistic scenarios by simulating several levels of questionable research practices, publication bias, and heterogeneity, using study sample sizes empirically derived from the literature. Our results indicate that one method – the three-parameter selection model (Iyengar & Greenhouse, 1988; McShane, Böckenholt, & Hansen, 2016) – generally performs better than trim-and-fill, p-curve, p-uniform, PET, PEESE, or PET-PEESE, and that some of these other methods should typically not be used at all. However, it is unknown whether the success of the three-parameter selection model is due to the match between its assumptions and our modeling strategy, so future work is needed to further test its robustness. Despite this, we generally recommend that meta-analysts of data in psychology use the three-parameter selection model. Moreover, we strongly recommend that researchers in psychology continue their efforts on improving the primary literature and conducting large-scale, pre-registered replications.
Ovulatory Changes in Sexuality
Arslan, Ruben C, Katharina M Schilling, Tanja M Gerlach, and Lars Penke. 2017. “Ovulatory Changes in Sexuality”. PsyArXiv. September 4. https://psyarxiv.com/jp2ym/
Abstract: Previous research reported ovulatory changes in women’s appearance, mate preferences, extra- and in-pair sexual desire and behaviour, but has been criticised for small sample sizes, inappropriate designs, and undisclosed flexibility in analyses. In the present study, we sought to address these criticisms by preregistering our hypotheses and analysis plan and by collecting a large diary sample. We gathered over 26 thousand usable online self-reports in a diary format from 1043 women, of which 421 were naturally cycling. We inferred the fertile period from menstrual onset reports. We used hormonal contraceptive users as a quasi-control group, as they experience menstruation, but not ovulation. We probed our results for robustness to different approaches (including different fertility estimates, different exclusion criteria, adjusting for potential confounds, moderation by methodological factors). We found robust evidence supporting previously reported ovulatory increases in extra-pair desire and behaviour, in-pair desire, and self-perceived desirability, as well as no unexpected associations. Yet, we did not find predicted effects on partner mate retention behaviour, clothing choices, or narcissism. Contrary to some of the earlier literature, partners’ sexual attractiveness did not moderate the cycle shifts. Taken together, the replicability of the existing literature on ovulatory changes was mixed. We conclude with simulation-based recommendations for reading the past literature and for designing future large-scale preregistered within-subject studies to understand ovulatory cycle changes and the effects of hormonal contraception. Interindividual differences in the size of ovulatory changes emerge as an important area for further study.
Abstract: Previous research reported ovulatory changes in women’s appearance, mate preferences, extra- and in-pair sexual desire and behaviour, but has been criticised for small sample sizes, inappropriate designs, and undisclosed flexibility in analyses. In the present study, we sought to address these criticisms by preregistering our hypotheses and analysis plan and by collecting a large diary sample. We gathered over 26 thousand usable online self-reports in a diary format from 1043 women, of which 421 were naturally cycling. We inferred the fertile period from menstrual onset reports. We used hormonal contraceptive users as a quasi-control group, as they experience menstruation, but not ovulation. We probed our results for robustness to different approaches (including different fertility estimates, different exclusion criteria, adjusting for potential confounds, moderation by methodological factors). We found robust evidence supporting previously reported ovulatory increases in extra-pair desire and behaviour, in-pair desire, and self-perceived desirability, as well as no unexpected associations. Yet, we did not find predicted effects on partner mate retention behaviour, clothing choices, or narcissism. Contrary to some of the earlier literature, partners’ sexual attractiveness did not moderate the cycle shifts. Taken together, the replicability of the existing literature on ovulatory changes was mixed. We conclude with simulation-based recommendations for reading the past literature and for designing future large-scale preregistered within-subject studies to understand ovulatory cycle changes and the effects of hormonal contraception. Interindividual differences in the size of ovulatory changes emerge as an important area for further study.
The effect of the presence of an audience on risk-taking while gambling: the social shield
The effect of the presence of an audience on risk-taking while gambling: the social shield. Jérémy E. Lemoine & Christine Roland-Lévy. Social Influence. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15534510.2017.1373697
Abstract: Being in a social context influences risk-taking behavior. This study aims to identify the effect of an audience’s presence on risk-taking while gambling. One hundred and thirty-two university students played a computer roulette game. They were randomly allocated to one of our three conditions: (i) either they played alone; or (ii) in the presence of the experimenter; or (iii) in the presence of the experimenter, while being videotaped. Results revealed a significant effect on risk-taking in the participants with the presence of an audience, with more risk-averse behaviors in the two types of audience conditions than in the alone condition. No differences were found between the two audience conditions. Thus, an audience may prevent risk-taking and provide a social shield.
Keywords: Social facilitation, prospect theory, risk-taking, gambling, audience
Abstract: Being in a social context influences risk-taking behavior. This study aims to identify the effect of an audience’s presence on risk-taking while gambling. One hundred and thirty-two university students played a computer roulette game. They were randomly allocated to one of our three conditions: (i) either they played alone; or (ii) in the presence of the experimenter; or (iii) in the presence of the experimenter, while being videotaped. Results revealed a significant effect on risk-taking in the participants with the presence of an audience, with more risk-averse behaviors in the two types of audience conditions than in the alone condition. No differences were found between the two audience conditions. Thus, an audience may prevent risk-taking and provide a social shield.
Keywords: Social facilitation, prospect theory, risk-taking, gambling, audience
Aggression and sleep: a daylight saving time natural experiment on the effect of mild sleep loss and gain on assaults
Aggression and sleep: a daylight saving time natural experiment on the effect of mild sleep loss and gain on assaults. Rebecca Umbach, Adrian Raine, and Greg Ridgeway. ournal of Experimental Criminology, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-017-9299-x
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to test the effect of a mild, short-term sleep loss/gain on assault rates.
Methods: Using National Incidence Based Reporting System data and city-reported data from Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, we calculated the difference in assault rates on the Monday immediately following daylight saving time (DST) as compared to the Monday a week later using a Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator model. The same analyses were performed to examine effects of the return to standard time in the fall. We employed several falsification checks.
Results: There were 2.9% fewer (95% CI: –4.2%, −1.6%, p < 0.0001) assaults immediately following DST, when we lose an hour, as compared to a week later. In contrast, there was a 2.8% rise in assaults immediately following the return to standard time, when an hour is gained, as compared to a week later (95% CI: 1.5%, 4.2%, p < 0.0001). Multiple falsification analyses suggest the spring findings to be robust, while the evidence to support the fall findings is weaker.
Conclusions: This study suggests that mild and short-term changes in sleep do significantly affect rates of assault. Specifically, ***there is support for the theory that mild sleepiness possibly associated with an hour loss of sleep results in reduced assaults***. This contradicts the simple inverse relationship currently suggested by most of the correlational literature. This study and the mixed findings presented by experimental studies indicate that measurement variability of both sleep and aggression may result in conflicting findings.
Keywords: Aggression, Antisocial behavior, Crime, Daylight saving time, Sleep
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to test the effect of a mild, short-term sleep loss/gain on assault rates.
Methods: Using National Incidence Based Reporting System data and city-reported data from Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, we calculated the difference in assault rates on the Monday immediately following daylight saving time (DST) as compared to the Monday a week later using a Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator model. The same analyses were performed to examine effects of the return to standard time in the fall. We employed several falsification checks.
Results: There were 2.9% fewer (95% CI: –4.2%, −1.6%, p < 0.0001) assaults immediately following DST, when we lose an hour, as compared to a week later. In contrast, there was a 2.8% rise in assaults immediately following the return to standard time, when an hour is gained, as compared to a week later (95% CI: 1.5%, 4.2%, p < 0.0001). Multiple falsification analyses suggest the spring findings to be robust, while the evidence to support the fall findings is weaker.
Conclusions: This study suggests that mild and short-term changes in sleep do significantly affect rates of assault. Specifically, ***there is support for the theory that mild sleepiness possibly associated with an hour loss of sleep results in reduced assaults***. This contradicts the simple inverse relationship currently suggested by most of the correlational literature. This study and the mixed findings presented by experimental studies indicate that measurement variability of both sleep and aggression may result in conflicting findings.
Keywords: Aggression, Antisocial behavior, Crime, Daylight saving time, Sleep
Sunday, September 3, 2017
Emodiversity: Robust Predictor of Outcomes or Statistical Artifact?
Brown, N. J. L., & Coyne, J. C. (2017). Emodiversity: Robust Predictor of Outcomes or Statistical Artifact? Journal of Experimental Psychology. General. DOI: 10.1037/xge0000330
Abstract: This article examines the concept of emodiversity, put forward by Quoidbach et al. (2014) as a novel source of information about “the health of the human emotional ecosystem” (p. 2057). Quoidbach et al. drew an analogy between emodiversity as a desirable property of a person’s emotional make-up and biological diversity as a desirable property of an ecosystem. They claimed that emodiversity was an independent predictor of better mental and physical health outcomes in two large-scale studies. Here, we show that Quoidbach et al.’s construct of emodiversity suffers from several theoretical and practical deficiencies, which make these authors’ use of Shannon’s (1948) entropy formula to measure emodiversity highly questionable. Our reanalysis of Quoidbach et al.’s two studies shows that the apparently substantial effects that these authors reported are likely due to a failure to conduct appropriate hierarchical regression in one case, and to suppression effects in the other. It appears that Quoidbach et al.’s claims about emodiversity may reduce to little more than a set of computational and statistical artifacts.
Abstract: This article examines the concept of emodiversity, put forward by Quoidbach et al. (2014) as a novel source of information about “the health of the human emotional ecosystem” (p. 2057). Quoidbach et al. drew an analogy between emodiversity as a desirable property of a person’s emotional make-up and biological diversity as a desirable property of an ecosystem. They claimed that emodiversity was an independent predictor of better mental and physical health outcomes in two large-scale studies. Here, we show that Quoidbach et al.’s construct of emodiversity suffers from several theoretical and practical deficiencies, which make these authors’ use of Shannon’s (1948) entropy formula to measure emodiversity highly questionable. Our reanalysis of Quoidbach et al.’s two studies shows that the apparently substantial effects that these authors reported are likely due to a failure to conduct appropriate hierarchical regression in one case, and to suppression effects in the other. It appears that Quoidbach et al.’s claims about emodiversity may reduce to little more than a set of computational and statistical artifacts.
Big Data Surveillance: The Case of Policing
Big Data Surveillance: The Case of Policing. Sarah Brayne. American Sociological Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122417725865
Abstract: This article examines the intersection of two structural developments: the growth of surveillance and the rise of “big data.” Drawing on observations and interviews conducted within the Los Angeles Police Department, I offer an empirical account of how the adoption of big data analytics does—and does not—transform police surveillance practices. I argue that the adoption of big data analytics facilitates amplifications of prior surveillance practices and fundamental transformations in surveillance activities. First, discretionary assessments of risk are supplemented and quantified using risk scores. Second, data are used for predictive, rather than reactive or explanatory, purposes. Third, the proliferation of automatic alert systems makes it possible to systematically surveil an unprecedentedly large number of people. Fourth, the threshold for inclusion in law enforcement databases is lower, now including individuals who have not had direct police contact. Fifth, previously separate data systems are merged, facilitating the spread of surveillance into a wide range of institutions. Based on these findings, I develop a theoretical model of big data surveillance that can be applied to institutional domains beyond the criminal justice system. Finally, I highlight the social consequences of big data surveillance for law and social inequality.
---
For example, after a series of copper wire thefts in the city, the police found the car involved by drawing a radius in Palantir around the three places the wire was stolen from, setting up time bounds around the time they knew the thefts occurred at each site, and querying the system for any license plates captured by ALPRs in all three locations during those time periods.
[...]
I encountered several other examples of law enforcement using external data originally collected for non–criminal justice purposes, including data from repossession and collections agencies; social media, foreclosure, and electronic toll pass data; and address and usage information from utility bills. Respondents also indicated they were working on integrating hospital, pay parking lot, and university camera feeds; rebate data such as address information from contact lens rebates; and call data from pizza chains, including names, addresses, and phone numbers from Papa Johns and Pizza Hut. In some instances, it is simply easier for law enforcement to purchase privately collected data than to rely on in-house data because there are fewer constitutional protections, reporting requirements, and appellate checks on private sector surveillance and data collection (Pasquale 2014). Moreover, respondents explained, privately collected data is sometimes more up-to-date.
Abstract: This article examines the intersection of two structural developments: the growth of surveillance and the rise of “big data.” Drawing on observations and interviews conducted within the Los Angeles Police Department, I offer an empirical account of how the adoption of big data analytics does—and does not—transform police surveillance practices. I argue that the adoption of big data analytics facilitates amplifications of prior surveillance practices and fundamental transformations in surveillance activities. First, discretionary assessments of risk are supplemented and quantified using risk scores. Second, data are used for predictive, rather than reactive or explanatory, purposes. Third, the proliferation of automatic alert systems makes it possible to systematically surveil an unprecedentedly large number of people. Fourth, the threshold for inclusion in law enforcement databases is lower, now including individuals who have not had direct police contact. Fifth, previously separate data systems are merged, facilitating the spread of surveillance into a wide range of institutions. Based on these findings, I develop a theoretical model of big data surveillance that can be applied to institutional domains beyond the criminal justice system. Finally, I highlight the social consequences of big data surveillance for law and social inequality.
---
For example, after a series of copper wire thefts in the city, the police found the car involved by drawing a radius in Palantir around the three places the wire was stolen from, setting up time bounds around the time they knew the thefts occurred at each site, and querying the system for any license plates captured by ALPRs in all three locations during those time periods.
[...]
I encountered several other examples of law enforcement using external data originally collected for non–criminal justice purposes, including data from repossession and collections agencies; social media, foreclosure, and electronic toll pass data; and address and usage information from utility bills. Respondents also indicated they were working on integrating hospital, pay parking lot, and university camera feeds; rebate data such as address information from contact lens rebates; and call data from pizza chains, including names, addresses, and phone numbers from Papa Johns and Pizza Hut. In some instances, it is simply easier for law enforcement to purchase privately collected data than to rely on in-house data because there are fewer constitutional protections, reporting requirements, and appellate checks on private sector surveillance and data collection (Pasquale 2014). Moreover, respondents explained, privately collected data is sometimes more up-to-date.
How quickly can we adapt to change? An assessment of hurricane damage mitigation efforts using forecast uncertainty.
How quickly can we adapt to change? An assessment of hurricane damage mitigation efforts using forecast uncertainty. By Andrew Martinez
Abstract: Our ability to adapt to extreme weather is increasingly relevant as the frequency and intensity of these events alters due to climate change. It is important to understand the effectiveness of adaptation given the uncertainty associated with future climate events. However, there has been little analysis of short-term adaptation efforts. We propose a novel approach of using errors from hurricane forecasts to evaluate short-term hurricane damage mitigation efforts. We construct a statistical model of damages for all hurricanes to strike the continental United States since 1955. While we allow for many possible drivers of damages, using model selection methods we find that a small subset explains most of the variation. We also find evidence supporting short-term adaptation effects prior to a hurricane landfall. Our results show that the 67 percent improvement in hurricane forecasts over the past 60 years is associated with damages being 16-63 percent lower than they otherwise would have been. Accounting for outlying observations narrows this range to 16-24 percent.
- Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series (Ref: 831 )
Keywords: Adaptation, Natural Disasters, Uncertainty
JEL Reference: C51, C52, Q51, Q54
Sex differences in jealousy: the (Lack of) influence of researcher theoretical perspective
Sex differences in jealousy: the (Lack of) influence of researcher theoretical perspective. John Edlund et al. The Journal of Social Psycholog, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2017.1365686
According to the theory of evolved sex differences in jealousy (Buss, Larsen, Westen, & Semmelroth, 1992), ancestral women’s challenge of ensuring paternal investment exerted selective pressures that increased women’s jealousy in response to emotional infidelity, whereas ancestral men’s challenge of paternal uncertainty exerted selective pressures that increased men’s jealousy in response to sexual infidelity. Observing that women experience greater jealousy in response to emotional infidelity (relative to men) and that men experience greater jealousy in response to sexual infidelity (relative to women) is known as the sex differences in jealousy effect. This effect has been explored in several ways (see Edlund & Sagarin, 2017 for a comprehensive review). Most relevant to the goals of this paper are the approaches taken by Sheets and Wolfe (2001), in which participants were asked to imagine an infidelity and respond to forced-choice questions , and the approach taken by Edlund, Heider, Scherer, Farc, and Sagarin (2006), in which participants were asked to respond on continuous items .
However, this sex difference in jealousy effect has not been without significant controversy in the literature. For instance, DeSteno and colleagues (DeSteno, Bartlett, Bravermann, & Salovey, 2002) have suggested that men and women had differential interpretations of the forced-choice questions (called the “double-shot” hypothesis); however, Buss and colleagues (Buss et al., 1999) later demonstrated that the double-shot hypothesis cannot explain the relationship between participant sex and jealousy. Harris (2002) questioned whether sex differences in cognitive focus (not emotional jealousy) in response to actual experiences with infidelity mirrored hypothetical reactions and whether the effect in the hypothetical reaction literature was an artifact of the forced-choice measure. Edlund and colleagues (Edlund et al., 2006) later demonstrated that sex differences in jealousy in response to actual experiences with infidelity mirrored hypothetical reactions in both forced-choice and continuous measures. Importantly, meta-analyses have confirmed that this effect reliably emerges with both forced-choice (Harris, 2002) and continuous measures of jealousy (Sagarin et al., 2012). One significant point of contention in the literature, and the one addressed in the current study, is whether successfully observing a sex difference in jealousy effect is driven by the theoretical perspective of the researchers. Many of the studies attempting to refute the theory of evolved sex differences in jealousy have been published in general psychological journals (e.g., Psychological Science) and in social psychology journals (e.g., Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin). Conversely, many of the studies supporting the sex difference in jealousy have been published in journals oriented toward evolutionary psychology (e.g., Evolutionary Psychology). This discrepancy is highlighted by Edlund and Sagarin (2017), who demonstrate the differences in the publication outlets, but they do not offer evidence as to whether the theoretical perspective of the researchers is the driving factor in the eventual publication outlets.
Given the disparate nature of the researchers on both sides of the debate and the resultant diversity in the outlets in which their findings have been published, one of the goals of the present research was to bring diverse researchers together (many of whom have never published with one another) to investigate whether theoretical perspective impacted the sex difference in jealousy. We also sought to provide another replication of the sex difference in jealousy effect while examining both continuous and forced-choice measures. Finally, we sought to extend the sex difference in jealousy literature by incorporating an individual difference measure – a self-perceived measure of how high quality a mate one is (i.e., mate value) – as a potential moderator of the sex difference in jealousy effect. For instance, research has shown that mate value moderates one’s preferences in a mate (e.g., Edlund & Sagarin, 2010; Reeve, Kelly, & Welling, 2017), as well as one’s intention to commit an infidelity (Starratt, Weekes-Shackelford, & Shackelford, 2017). As such, given mate value’s impact on intentions towards infidelity, we wanted to explore if it would similarly impact the reactions to an infidelity.
[...]
In summary, we have demonstrated that the sex difference in jealousy occurs in both forcedchoice and continuous response scale formats. We also demonstrated that the theoretical perspective of the researchers has no bearing on the results obtained when using identical tools. Finally, we have demonstrated that mate value moderates the sex difference in jealousy.
According to the theory of evolved sex differences in jealousy (Buss, Larsen, Westen, & Semmelroth, 1992), ancestral women’s challenge of ensuring paternal investment exerted selective pressures that increased women’s jealousy in response to emotional infidelity, whereas ancestral men’s challenge of paternal uncertainty exerted selective pressures that increased men’s jealousy in response to sexual infidelity. Observing that women experience greater jealousy in response to emotional infidelity (relative to men) and that men experience greater jealousy in response to sexual infidelity (relative to women) is known as the sex differences in jealousy effect. This effect has been explored in several ways (see Edlund & Sagarin, 2017 for a comprehensive review). Most relevant to the goals of this paper are the approaches taken by Sheets and Wolfe (2001), in which participants were asked to imagine an infidelity and respond to forced-choice questions , and the approach taken by Edlund, Heider, Scherer, Farc, and Sagarin (2006), in which participants were asked to respond on continuous items .
However, this sex difference in jealousy effect has not been without significant controversy in the literature. For instance, DeSteno and colleagues (DeSteno, Bartlett, Bravermann, & Salovey, 2002) have suggested that men and women had differential interpretations of the forced-choice questions (called the “double-shot” hypothesis); however, Buss and colleagues (Buss et al., 1999) later demonstrated that the double-shot hypothesis cannot explain the relationship between participant sex and jealousy. Harris (2002) questioned whether sex differences in cognitive focus (not emotional jealousy) in response to actual experiences with infidelity mirrored hypothetical reactions and whether the effect in the hypothetical reaction literature was an artifact of the forced-choice measure. Edlund and colleagues (Edlund et al., 2006) later demonstrated that sex differences in jealousy in response to actual experiences with infidelity mirrored hypothetical reactions in both forced-choice and continuous measures. Importantly, meta-analyses have confirmed that this effect reliably emerges with both forced-choice (Harris, 2002) and continuous measures of jealousy (Sagarin et al., 2012). One significant point of contention in the literature, and the one addressed in the current study, is whether successfully observing a sex difference in jealousy effect is driven by the theoretical perspective of the researchers. Many of the studies attempting to refute the theory of evolved sex differences in jealousy have been published in general psychological journals (e.g., Psychological Science) and in social psychology journals (e.g., Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin). Conversely, many of the studies supporting the sex difference in jealousy have been published in journals oriented toward evolutionary psychology (e.g., Evolutionary Psychology). This discrepancy is highlighted by Edlund and Sagarin (2017), who demonstrate the differences in the publication outlets, but they do not offer evidence as to whether the theoretical perspective of the researchers is the driving factor in the eventual publication outlets.
Given the disparate nature of the researchers on both sides of the debate and the resultant diversity in the outlets in which their findings have been published, one of the goals of the present research was to bring diverse researchers together (many of whom have never published with one another) to investigate whether theoretical perspective impacted the sex difference in jealousy. We also sought to provide another replication of the sex difference in jealousy effect while examining both continuous and forced-choice measures. Finally, we sought to extend the sex difference in jealousy literature by incorporating an individual difference measure – a self-perceived measure of how high quality a mate one is (i.e., mate value) – as a potential moderator of the sex difference in jealousy effect. For instance, research has shown that mate value moderates one’s preferences in a mate (e.g., Edlund & Sagarin, 2010; Reeve, Kelly, & Welling, 2017), as well as one’s intention to commit an infidelity (Starratt, Weekes-Shackelford, & Shackelford, 2017). As such, given mate value’s impact on intentions towards infidelity, we wanted to explore if it would similarly impact the reactions to an infidelity.
[...]
In summary, we have demonstrated that the sex difference in jealousy occurs in both forcedchoice and continuous response scale formats. We also demonstrated that the theoretical perspective of the researchers has no bearing on the results obtained when using identical tools. Finally, we have demonstrated that mate value moderates the sex difference in jealousy.
Kevin Bryan on “The Development Effects of the Extractive Colonial Economy,” M. Dell & B. Olken
Kevin Bryan's comments on “The Development Effects of the Extractive Colonial Economy,” M. Dell & B. Olken (2017).
Find the full text, links to other info, etc., in A Fine Theorem blog, Jun 22 2017, https://afinetheorem.wordpress.com/2017/06/22/the-development-effects-of-the-extractive-colonial-economy-m-dell-b-olken-2017/
A good rule of thumb is that you will want to read any working paper Melissa Dell puts out. Her main interest is the long-run path-dependent effect of historical institutions, with rigorous quantitative investigation of the subtle conditionality of the past. For instance, in her earlier work on Peru (Econometrica, 2010), mine slavery in the colonial era led to fewer hacienda style plantations at the end of the era, which led to less political power without those large landholders in the early democratic era, which led to fewer public goods throughout the 20th century, which led to less education and income today in eras that used to have mine slavery. One way to read this is that local inequality is the past may, through political institutions, be a good thing today! History is not as simple as “inequality is the past causes bad outcomes today” or “extractive institutions in the past cause bad outcomes today” or “colonial economic distortions cause bad outcomes today”. [...]
Dell’s new paper looks at the cultuurstelsel, a policy the Dutch imposed on Java in the mid-19th century. Essentially, the Netherlands was broke and Java was suitable for sugar, so the Dutch required villages in certain regions to use huge portions of their arable land, and labor effort, to produce sugar for export. They built roads and some rail, as well as sugar factories (now generally long gone), as part of this effort, and the land used for sugar production generally became public village land controlled at the behest of local leaders. This was back in the mid-1800s, so surely it shouldn’t affect anything of substance today?
But it did! Take a look at villages near the old sugar plantations, or that were forced to plant sugar, and you’ll find higher incomes, higher education levels, high school attendance rates even back in the late colonial era, higher population densities, and more workers today in retail and manufacturing. Dell and Olken did some wild data matching using a great database of geographic names collected by the US government to match the historic villages where these sugar plants, and these labor requirements, were located with modern village and town locations. They then constructed “placebo” factories – locations along coastal rivers in sugar growing regions with appropriate topography where a plant could have been located but wasn’t. In particular, as in the famous Salop circle, you won’t locate a factory too close to an existing one, but there are many counterfactual equilibria where we just shift all the factories one way or the other. By comparing the predicted effect of distance from the real factory on outcomes today with the predicted effect of distance from the huge number of hypothetical factories, you can isolate the historic local influence of the real factory from other local features which can’t be controlled for.
Consumption right next to old, long-destroyed factories is 14% higher than even five kilometers away, education is 1.25 years longer on average, electrification, road, and rail density are all substantially higher, and industrial production upstream and downstream from sugar (e.g., farm machinery upstream, and processed foods downstream) are also much more likely to be located in villages with historic factories even if there is no sugar production anymore in that region!
It’s not just the factory and Dutch investments that matter, however. Consider the villages, up to 10 kilometers away, which were forced to grow the raw cane. Their elites took private land for this purpose, and land inequality remains higher in villages that were forced to grow cane compared to villages right next door that were outside the Dutch-imposed boundary. But this public land permitted surplus extraction in an agricultural society which could be used for public goods, like schooling, which would later become important! These villages were much more likely to have schools especially before the 1970s, when public schooling in Indonesia was limited, and today are higher density, richer, more educated, and less agricultural than villages nearby which weren’t forced to grow cane. This all has shades of the long debate on “forward linkages” in agricultural societies, where it is hypothesized that agricultural surplus benefits industrialization by providing the surplus necessary for education and capital to be purchased; [...].
Are you surprised by these results? [me: NO!] They fascinate me, honestly. Think through the logic: forced labor (in the surrounding villages) and extractive capital (rail and factories built solely to export a crop in little use domestically) both have positive long-run local effects! They do so by affecting institutions – whether villages have the ability to produce public goods like education – and by affecting incentives – the production of capital used up- and downstream. One can easily imagine cases where forced labor and extractive capital have negative long-run effects, and we have great papers by Daron Acemoglu, Nathan Nunn, Sara Lowes and others on precisely this point. But it is also very easy for societies to get trapped in bad path dependent equilibria, for which outside intervention, even ethically shameful ones, can (perhaps inadvertently) cause useful shifts in incentives and institutions! I recall a visit to Babeldaob, the main island in Palau. During the Japanese colonial period, the island was heavily industrialized as part of Japan’s war machine. These factories were destroyed by the Allies in World War 2. Yet despite their extractive history, a local told me many on the island believe that the industrial development of the region was permanently harmed when those factories were damaged. [...]
2017 Working Paper is here [https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dell/files/170414draft.pdf] (no RePEc IDEAS version). For more on sugar and institutions, I highly recommend Christian Dippel, Avner Greif and Dan Trefler’s recent paper on Caribbean sugar. The price of sugar fell enormously in the late 19th century, yet wages on islands which lost the ability to productively export sugar rose. Why? Planters in places like Barbados had so much money from their sugar exports that they could manipulate local governance and the police, while planters in places like the Virgin Islands became too poor to do the same. This decreased labor coercion, permitting workers on sugar plantations to work small plots or move to other industries, raising wages in the end. [...].
Find the full text, links to other info, etc., in A Fine Theorem blog, Jun 22 2017, https://afinetheorem.wordpress.com/2017/06/22/the-development-effects-of-the-extractive-colonial-economy-m-dell-b-olken-2017/
A good rule of thumb is that you will want to read any working paper Melissa Dell puts out. Her main interest is the long-run path-dependent effect of historical institutions, with rigorous quantitative investigation of the subtle conditionality of the past. For instance, in her earlier work on Peru (Econometrica, 2010), mine slavery in the colonial era led to fewer hacienda style plantations at the end of the era, which led to less political power without those large landholders in the early democratic era, which led to fewer public goods throughout the 20th century, which led to less education and income today in eras that used to have mine slavery. One way to read this is that local inequality is the past may, through political institutions, be a good thing today! History is not as simple as “inequality is the past causes bad outcomes today” or “extractive institutions in the past cause bad outcomes today” or “colonial economic distortions cause bad outcomes today”. [...]
Dell’s new paper looks at the cultuurstelsel, a policy the Dutch imposed on Java in the mid-19th century. Essentially, the Netherlands was broke and Java was suitable for sugar, so the Dutch required villages in certain regions to use huge portions of their arable land, and labor effort, to produce sugar for export. They built roads and some rail, as well as sugar factories (now generally long gone), as part of this effort, and the land used for sugar production generally became public village land controlled at the behest of local leaders. This was back in the mid-1800s, so surely it shouldn’t affect anything of substance today?
But it did! Take a look at villages near the old sugar plantations, or that were forced to plant sugar, and you’ll find higher incomes, higher education levels, high school attendance rates even back in the late colonial era, higher population densities, and more workers today in retail and manufacturing. Dell and Olken did some wild data matching using a great database of geographic names collected by the US government to match the historic villages where these sugar plants, and these labor requirements, were located with modern village and town locations. They then constructed “placebo” factories – locations along coastal rivers in sugar growing regions with appropriate topography where a plant could have been located but wasn’t. In particular, as in the famous Salop circle, you won’t locate a factory too close to an existing one, but there are many counterfactual equilibria where we just shift all the factories one way or the other. By comparing the predicted effect of distance from the real factory on outcomes today with the predicted effect of distance from the huge number of hypothetical factories, you can isolate the historic local influence of the real factory from other local features which can’t be controlled for.
Consumption right next to old, long-destroyed factories is 14% higher than even five kilometers away, education is 1.25 years longer on average, electrification, road, and rail density are all substantially higher, and industrial production upstream and downstream from sugar (e.g., farm machinery upstream, and processed foods downstream) are also much more likely to be located in villages with historic factories even if there is no sugar production anymore in that region!
It’s not just the factory and Dutch investments that matter, however. Consider the villages, up to 10 kilometers away, which were forced to grow the raw cane. Their elites took private land for this purpose, and land inequality remains higher in villages that were forced to grow cane compared to villages right next door that were outside the Dutch-imposed boundary. But this public land permitted surplus extraction in an agricultural society which could be used for public goods, like schooling, which would later become important! These villages were much more likely to have schools especially before the 1970s, when public schooling in Indonesia was limited, and today are higher density, richer, more educated, and less agricultural than villages nearby which weren’t forced to grow cane. This all has shades of the long debate on “forward linkages” in agricultural societies, where it is hypothesized that agricultural surplus benefits industrialization by providing the surplus necessary for education and capital to be purchased; [...].
Are you surprised by these results? [me: NO!] They fascinate me, honestly. Think through the logic: forced labor (in the surrounding villages) and extractive capital (rail and factories built solely to export a crop in little use domestically) both have positive long-run local effects! They do so by affecting institutions – whether villages have the ability to produce public goods like education – and by affecting incentives – the production of capital used up- and downstream. One can easily imagine cases where forced labor and extractive capital have negative long-run effects, and we have great papers by Daron Acemoglu, Nathan Nunn, Sara Lowes and others on precisely this point. But it is also very easy for societies to get trapped in bad path dependent equilibria, for which outside intervention, even ethically shameful ones, can (perhaps inadvertently) cause useful shifts in incentives and institutions! I recall a visit to Babeldaob, the main island in Palau. During the Japanese colonial period, the island was heavily industrialized as part of Japan’s war machine. These factories were destroyed by the Allies in World War 2. Yet despite their extractive history, a local told me many on the island believe that the industrial development of the region was permanently harmed when those factories were damaged. [...]
2017 Working Paper is here [https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dell/files/170414draft.pdf] (no RePEc IDEAS version). For more on sugar and institutions, I highly recommend Christian Dippel, Avner Greif and Dan Trefler’s recent paper on Caribbean sugar. The price of sugar fell enormously in the late 19th century, yet wages on islands which lost the ability to productively export sugar rose. Why? Planters in places like Barbados had so much money from their sugar exports that they could manipulate local governance and the police, while planters in places like the Virgin Islands became too poor to do the same. This decreased labor coercion, permitting workers on sugar plantations to work small plots or move to other industries, raising wages in the end. [...].
Saturday, September 2, 2017
Much ado about grit: A meta-analytic synthesis of the grit literature
Credé, M., Tynan, M. C., & Harms, P. D. (2017). Much ado about grit: A meta-analytic synthesis of the grit literature. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 113(3), 492-511.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000102
Abstract: Grit has been presented as a higher order personality trait that is highly predictive of both success and performance and distinct from other traits such as conscientiousness. This paper provides a meta-analytic review of the grit literature with a particular focus on the structure of grit and the relation between grit and performance, retention, conscientiousness, cognitive ability, and demographic variables. Our results based on 584 effect sizes from 88 independent samples representing 66,807 individuals indicate that the higher order structure of grit is not confirmed, that grit is only moderately correlated with performance and retention, and that grit is very strongly correlated with conscientiousness. We also find that the perseverance of effort facet has significantly stronger criterion validities than the consistency of interest facet and that perseverance of effort explains variance in academic performance even after controlling for conscientiousness. In aggregate our results suggest that interventions designed to enhance grit may only have weak effects on performance and success, that the construct validity of grit is in question, and that the primary utility of the grit construct may lie in the perseverance facet.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000102
Abstract: Grit has been presented as a higher order personality trait that is highly predictive of both success and performance and distinct from other traits such as conscientiousness. This paper provides a meta-analytic review of the grit literature with a particular focus on the structure of grit and the relation between grit and performance, retention, conscientiousness, cognitive ability, and demographic variables. Our results based on 584 effect sizes from 88 independent samples representing 66,807 individuals indicate that the higher order structure of grit is not confirmed, that grit is only moderately correlated with performance and retention, and that grit is very strongly correlated with conscientiousness. We also find that the perseverance of effort facet has significantly stronger criterion validities than the consistency of interest facet and that perseverance of effort explains variance in academic performance even after controlling for conscientiousness. In aggregate our results suggest that interventions designed to enhance grit may only have weak effects on performance and success, that the construct validity of grit is in question, and that the primary utility of the grit construct may lie in the perseverance facet.
We cannot be impartial most of the time... Our judgement gets clouded by our political preferences --- again
Kahan, Dan M. and Peters, Ellen, Rumors of the 'Nonreplication' of the 'Motivated Numeracy Effect' are Greatly Exaggerated (August 26, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3026941
Abstract: This paper does three things. First, it describes the design defects (principally, the lack of statistical power) that make it misleading for Ballarini & Sloman (2017) to claim that they “failed to replicate” the results of Kahan, Peters et al. (2017). Second, it presents the positive results of our own replication study. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of why confining assertions of non-replication to studies that satisfy emerging replication protocols—in particular the imperative of “faithful recreation of a study with high statistical power” (Brandt, Ijzerman et al 2014, p. 217)—is essential to the contribution such studies can make as building blocks of a cumulative science.
---
The authors ask a neutral problem (if a skin cream works well or not for some rash), and a politicized question (is a change in gun laws associated to more or to less crime?) in a form called covariance detection task (they present fictional studies with fictional results and ask the subjects whether the study supports one answer or the other). They do not ask subjects what they think of the real world, just if the study supports or not an answer or the other... But the subjects cannot be neutral. The authors add:
This “covariance detection” task is hard. Consistent with existing literature, ***only 30%*** of the MN sample overall supplied the correct answer in the “skin rash” group. Skin-rash group participants who scored in the 95th percentile of numeracy, in contrast, tended to get the correct answer in the “skin rash” treatment group ***around 75%*** of the time.
The high-numeracy participants in that group also tended to identify the correct solution—but only when that solution affirmed the position associated with their political identity (crime increases for “Liberal Democrat” vs. crime decreases for “Conservative Republican”). When the correct answer disconfirmed (or “threatened”) the position associated with their political identity (crime increased for Liberal Democrat and crime decreased for Conservative Republican), the high-numeracy participants performed no better than the low- and moderately-numerate participants who shared their identity (Kahan, Peters, et al., 2017).
This result is not consistent with the widespread assumption that political and cultural conflict over scientific data is rooted in the prevalence of System-1 thinking in the general population. It is more consistent with an alternative view that sees numeracy and other forms of System-2 reasoning as re-sources that can be used in the service of identity-protective cognition, a form of motivated information processing that aims to maintain correspondence between an individual’s factual beliefs and the factual beliefs known to be markers of membership in, and loyalty to, one’s cultural group (Bolsen et al. 2014; Kahan 2013, 2009; Sherman & Cohen 2006).
---
Check also: Biased Policy Professionals. Sheheryar Banuri, Stefan Dercon, and Varun Gauri. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8113. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/biased-policy-professionals-world-bank.html
And: Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html
And: Wisdom and how to cultivate it: Review of emerging evidence for a constructivist model of wise thinking. Igor Grossmann. European Psychologist, in press. Pre-print: https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/wisdom-and-how-to-cultivate-it-review.html
Abstract: This paper does three things. First, it describes the design defects (principally, the lack of statistical power) that make it misleading for Ballarini & Sloman (2017) to claim that they “failed to replicate” the results of Kahan, Peters et al. (2017). Second, it presents the positive results of our own replication study. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of why confining assertions of non-replication to studies that satisfy emerging replication protocols—in particular the imperative of “faithful recreation of a study with high statistical power” (Brandt, Ijzerman et al 2014, p. 217)—is essential to the contribution such studies can make as building blocks of a cumulative science.
---
The authors ask a neutral problem (if a skin cream works well or not for some rash), and a politicized question (is a change in gun laws associated to more or to less crime?) in a form called covariance detection task (they present fictional studies with fictional results and ask the subjects whether the study supports one answer or the other). They do not ask subjects what they think of the real world, just if the study supports or not an answer or the other... But the subjects cannot be neutral. The authors add:
This “covariance detection” task is hard. Consistent with existing literature, ***only 30%*** of the MN sample overall supplied the correct answer in the “skin rash” group. Skin-rash group participants who scored in the 95th percentile of numeracy, in contrast, tended to get the correct answer in the “skin rash” treatment group ***around 75%*** of the time.
The high-numeracy participants in that group also tended to identify the correct solution—but only when that solution affirmed the position associated with their political identity (crime increases for “Liberal Democrat” vs. crime decreases for “Conservative Republican”). When the correct answer disconfirmed (or “threatened”) the position associated with their political identity (crime increased for Liberal Democrat and crime decreased for Conservative Republican), the high-numeracy participants performed no better than the low- and moderately-numerate participants who shared their identity (Kahan, Peters, et al., 2017).
This result is not consistent with the widespread assumption that political and cultural conflict over scientific data is rooted in the prevalence of System-1 thinking in the general population. It is more consistent with an alternative view that sees numeracy and other forms of System-2 reasoning as re-sources that can be used in the service of identity-protective cognition, a form of motivated information processing that aims to maintain correspondence between an individual’s factual beliefs and the factual beliefs known to be markers of membership in, and loyalty to, one’s cultural group (Bolsen et al. 2014; Kahan 2013, 2009; Sherman & Cohen 2006).
---
Check also: Biased Policy Professionals. Sheheryar Banuri, Stefan Dercon, and Varun Gauri. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8113. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/biased-policy-professionals-world-bank.html
And: Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html
And: Wisdom and how to cultivate it: Review of emerging evidence for a constructivist model of wise thinking. Igor Grossmann. European Psychologist, in press. Pre-print: https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/wisdom-and-how-to-cultivate-it-review.html
Facial Width-to-height Ratio Does Not Predict Self-reported Behavioral Tendencies
Kosinski, Michal. 2017. “Facial Width-to-height Ratio Does Not Predict Self-reported Behavioral Tendencies”. PsyArXiv. September 2. doi:10.1177/0956797617716929.
Abstract: A growing number of studies have linked facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) with various antisocial or violent behavioral tendencies. However, those studies have predominantly been laboratory based and low powered. This work reexamined the links between fWHR and behavioral tendencies in a large sample of 137,163 participants. Behavioral tendencies were measured using 55 well-established psychometric scales, including self-report scales measuring intelligence, domains and facets of the five-factor model of personality, impulsiveness, sense of fairness, sensational interests, self-monitoring, impression management, and satisfaction with life. The findings revealed that fWHR is not substantially linked with any of these self-reported measures of behavioral tendencies, calling into question whether the links between fWHR and behavior generalize beyond the small samples and specific experimental settings that have been used in past fWHR research.
Abstract: A growing number of studies have linked facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) with various antisocial or violent behavioral tendencies. However, those studies have predominantly been laboratory based and low powered. This work reexamined the links between fWHR and behavioral tendencies in a large sample of 137,163 participants. Behavioral tendencies were measured using 55 well-established psychometric scales, including self-report scales measuring intelligence, domains and facets of the five-factor model of personality, impulsiveness, sense of fairness, sensational interests, self-monitoring, impression management, and satisfaction with life. The findings revealed that fWHR is not substantially linked with any of these self-reported measures of behavioral tendencies, calling into question whether the links between fWHR and behavior generalize beyond the small samples and specific experimental settings that have been used in past fWHR research.
Contrary to the hypothesis, predicted pleasure eating sweets was significantly lower than observed pleasure
Fallon, Matthew D., "The Role of Affective Forecasting and the Impact Bias in Nutritional Health Behaviors" (2017). Grand Valley State University, Masters Theses. 854. http://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/theses/854
Abstract: Previous literature on affective forecasting has studied its role in health decisions, but there is little research investigating affective forecasting in diet choices and eating behaviors. The present study collected affective forecasts from 43 college participants before eating an indulgent snack and then observed emotions immediately after eating the snack. We predicted that emotion predictions would be significantly stronger than observed emotions, in support of previous literature on the impact bias. We also predicted that optimism would predict a stronger impact bias and that extraversion and neuroticism would have a role in forecasts and observed emotions. Contrary to our hypothesis, predicted pleasure (M=2.12) was significantly lower than observed pleasure (M=2.34), F(1,42)=5.44, p=.025. Likewise, for participants who ate M&Ms rather than cookies or chips, participants had significantly higher observed positive emotion (M=1.95) than they had predicted (1.73), F(1,14)=5.78, p=.031. Trait optimism had significant interaction effects for positive affect, for each food chosen, such that as optimism increases, predicted affect increased more rapidly than observed affect. Neuroticism and extraversion were found to significantly influence predicted and observed positive affect, but had no effect on the accuracy of the affective forecasts. The present findings did not indicate the presence of an impact bias, but support previous affective forecasting literature in other aspects. These findings indicate that many of the phenomena in affective forecasting influence food forecasts. This holds implications for future research on affective forecasting in food choice and interventions targeting forecasting errors to improve diet.
Abstract: Previous literature on affective forecasting has studied its role in health decisions, but there is little research investigating affective forecasting in diet choices and eating behaviors. The present study collected affective forecasts from 43 college participants before eating an indulgent snack and then observed emotions immediately after eating the snack. We predicted that emotion predictions would be significantly stronger than observed emotions, in support of previous literature on the impact bias. We also predicted that optimism would predict a stronger impact bias and that extraversion and neuroticism would have a role in forecasts and observed emotions. Contrary to our hypothesis, predicted pleasure (M=2.12) was significantly lower than observed pleasure (M=2.34), F(1,42)=5.44, p=.025. Likewise, for participants who ate M&Ms rather than cookies or chips, participants had significantly higher observed positive emotion (M=1.95) than they had predicted (1.73), F(1,14)=5.78, p=.031. Trait optimism had significant interaction effects for positive affect, for each food chosen, such that as optimism increases, predicted affect increased more rapidly than observed affect. Neuroticism and extraversion were found to significantly influence predicted and observed positive affect, but had no effect on the accuracy of the affective forecasts. The present findings did not indicate the presence of an impact bias, but support previous affective forecasting literature in other aspects. These findings indicate that many of the phenomena in affective forecasting influence food forecasts. This holds implications for future research on affective forecasting in food choice and interventions targeting forecasting errors to improve diet.
Friday, September 1, 2017
The estimated 79% heritability of schizophrenia is congruent with previous reports and indicates a substantial genetic risk
Heritability of schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum based on the nationwide Danish Twin Register. Rikke Hilker, MD, PhD. Biological Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2017.08.017
Abstract
Background: Twin studies have provided evidence that both genetic and environmental factors contribute to schizophrenia risk. Heritability estimates of schizophrenia in twin samples have varied methodologically. This study provides updated heritability estimates based on nationwide twin data and an improved statistical methodology.
Method: Combining two nationwide registers, the Danish Twin Register and the Danish Psychiatric Research Register, we identified a sample of twins born 1951-2000 (N=31,524 twin pairs). Twins were followed up until June 1st 2011. Liability threshold models adjusting for censoring with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate probandwise concordance rates and heritability of the diagnoses of schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.
Results: The probandwise concordance rate of schizophrenia is 33% in monozygotic (MZ) twins and 7% in dizygotic (DZ) twins. We estimated the heritability of schizophrenia to be 79%. When expanding illness outcome to include schizophrenia spectrum disorders, the heritability estimate was almost similar, 73%.
Conclusion: The key strength of this study is the application of a novel statistical method accounting for censoring in the follow-up period to a nationwide twin sample. The estimated 79% heritability of schizophrenia is congruent with previous reports and indicates a substantial genetic risk. The high genetic risk also applies to a broader phenotype of schizophrenia spectrum disorders. The low concordance rate of 33% in MZ twins demonstrates that illness vulnerability is not solely indicated by genetic factors.
Key words: Heritability schizophrenia twin study censoring concordance register
Abstract
Background: Twin studies have provided evidence that both genetic and environmental factors contribute to schizophrenia risk. Heritability estimates of schizophrenia in twin samples have varied methodologically. This study provides updated heritability estimates based on nationwide twin data and an improved statistical methodology.
Method: Combining two nationwide registers, the Danish Twin Register and the Danish Psychiatric Research Register, we identified a sample of twins born 1951-2000 (N=31,524 twin pairs). Twins were followed up until June 1st 2011. Liability threshold models adjusting for censoring with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate probandwise concordance rates and heritability of the diagnoses of schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.
Results: The probandwise concordance rate of schizophrenia is 33% in monozygotic (MZ) twins and 7% in dizygotic (DZ) twins. We estimated the heritability of schizophrenia to be 79%. When expanding illness outcome to include schizophrenia spectrum disorders, the heritability estimate was almost similar, 73%.
Conclusion: The key strength of this study is the application of a novel statistical method accounting for censoring in the follow-up period to a nationwide twin sample. The estimated 79% heritability of schizophrenia is congruent with previous reports and indicates a substantial genetic risk. The high genetic risk also applies to a broader phenotype of schizophrenia spectrum disorders. The low concordance rate of 33% in MZ twins demonstrates that illness vulnerability is not solely indicated by genetic factors.
Key words: Heritability schizophrenia twin study censoring concordance register
Superior Pattern Detectors Efficiently Learn, Activate, Apply, and Update Social Stereotypes
Superior Pattern Detectors Efficiently Learn, Activate, Apply, and Update Social Stereotypes. David Lick, Adam Alter and Jonathan Freeman. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000349
Abstract: Superior cognitive abilities are generally associated with positive outcomes such as academic achievement and social mobility. Here, we explore the darker side of cognitive ability, highlighting robust links between pattern detection and stereotyping. Across 6 studies, we find that superior pattern detectors efficiently learn and use stereotypes about social groups. This pattern holds across explicit (Studies 1 and 2), implicit (Studies 2 and 4), and behavioral measures of stereotyping (Study 3). We also find that superior pattern detectors readily update their stereotypes when confronted with new information (Study 5), making them particularly susceptible to counterstereotype training (Study 6). Pattern detection skills therefore equip people to act as naïve empiricists who calibrate their stereotypes to match incoming information. These findings highlight novel effects of individual aptitudes on social–cognitive processes.
Abstract: Superior cognitive abilities are generally associated with positive outcomes such as academic achievement and social mobility. Here, we explore the darker side of cognitive ability, highlighting robust links between pattern detection and stereotyping. Across 6 studies, we find that superior pattern detectors efficiently learn and use stereotypes about social groups. This pattern holds across explicit (Studies 1 and 2), implicit (Studies 2 and 4), and behavioral measures of stereotyping (Study 3). We also find that superior pattern detectors readily update their stereotypes when confronted with new information (Study 5), making them particularly susceptible to counterstereotype training (Study 6). Pattern detection skills therefore equip people to act as naïve empiricists who calibrate their stereotypes to match incoming information. These findings highlight novel effects of individual aptitudes on social–cognitive processes.
Group identity as a source of threat and means of compensation: Establishing personal control through group identification and ideology
Goode, C., Keefer, L. A., Branscombe, N. R., and Molina, L. E. (2017) Group identity as a source of threat and means of compensation: Establishing personal control through group identification and ideology. Eur. J. Soc. Psychol., 47: 259–272. doi: 10.1002/ejsp.2259.
Abstract: Compensatory control theory proposes that individuals can assuage threatened personal control by endorsing external systems or agents that provide a sense that the world is meaningfully ordered. Recent research drawing on this perspective finds that one means by which individuals can compensate for a loss of control is adherence to ideological beliefs about the social world. This prior work, however, has largely neglected the role of social groups in defining either the nature of control threat or the means by which individuals compensate for these threats. In four experiments (N = 466), we test the possibility that group-based threats to personal control can be effectively managed by defensively identifying with the threatened group and its values. We provide evidence for the specificity of these effects by demonstrating that defensive identification and ideology endorsement are specific to the content of the group-based threat.
Abstract: Compensatory control theory proposes that individuals can assuage threatened personal control by endorsing external systems or agents that provide a sense that the world is meaningfully ordered. Recent research drawing on this perspective finds that one means by which individuals can compensate for a loss of control is adherence to ideological beliefs about the social world. This prior work, however, has largely neglected the role of social groups in defining either the nature of control threat or the means by which individuals compensate for these threats. In four experiments (N = 466), we test the possibility that group-based threats to personal control can be effectively managed by defensively identifying with the threatened group and its values. We provide evidence for the specificity of these effects by demonstrating that defensive identification and ideology endorsement are specific to the content of the group-based threat.
Hispanics choose vehicles that are about 5-8% more expensive
Visible Consumption and Race: Evidence from Auto-Loans. Konstantinos Tzioumis. U.S. Department of the Treasury Working Paper, July 2017.
Abstract: This paper uses auto-loan applications to assess differences in consumption preferences across races. After controlling for income and age, Whites and Blacks are found to have similar choices in terms of vehicle value, while Hispanics choose vehicles that are about 5-8% more expensive. These results add to the literature by drawing on documented choices rather than realized purchases.
Abstract: This paper uses auto-loan applications to assess differences in consumption preferences across races. After controlling for income and age, Whites and Blacks are found to have similar choices in terms of vehicle value, while Hispanics choose vehicles that are about 5-8% more expensive. These results add to the literature by drawing on documented choices rather than realized purchases.
Similarities in smell and taste preferences in couples increase with relationship duration
Similarities in smell and taste preferences in couples increase with relationship duration. Agata Groyecka et al. Appetite, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2017.08.035
Abstract: Numerous studies point to partners’ congruence in various domains and note an increase in their compatibility over time. However, none have explored a shift in chemosensory perception related to relationship duration. Here, we examined the relationship between the time heterosexual couples have spent together and the degree to which they share their gustatory and olfactory preferences. Additionally, we investigated whether these preferences are associated with relationship satisfaction. One-hundred couples aged from 18 to 68 years being together for a period between 3 and 540 months rated the pleasantness of a wide variety of olfactory and gustatory stimuli. We showed that both taste and smell preferences are more similar the longer couples have been in a relationship. We also observed a very interesting trend in terms of smell preferences, with relationship satisfaction being negatively related to congruence in smell preferences between partners. We discuss these results from the perspective of evolutionary psychology.
Keywords: Smell preferences; Taste preferences; Olfaction; Gustation; Diet; Evolutionary psychology
Abstract: Numerous studies point to partners’ congruence in various domains and note an increase in their compatibility over time. However, none have explored a shift in chemosensory perception related to relationship duration. Here, we examined the relationship between the time heterosexual couples have spent together and the degree to which they share their gustatory and olfactory preferences. Additionally, we investigated whether these preferences are associated with relationship satisfaction. One-hundred couples aged from 18 to 68 years being together for a period between 3 and 540 months rated the pleasantness of a wide variety of olfactory and gustatory stimuli. We showed that both taste and smell preferences are more similar the longer couples have been in a relationship. We also observed a very interesting trend in terms of smell preferences, with relationship satisfaction being negatively related to congruence in smell preferences between partners. We discuss these results from the perspective of evolutionary psychology.
Keywords: Smell preferences; Taste preferences; Olfaction; Gustation; Diet; Evolutionary psychology
Bias and ignorance in demographic perception -- part of a very general pattern of human psychology
Bias and ignorance in demographic perception. D. Landy, B. Guay and T. Marghetis. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-017-1360-2
Abstract: When it comes to knowledge of demographic facts, misinformation appears to be the norm. Americans massively overestimate the proportions of their fellow citizens who are immigrants, Muslim, LGBTQ, and Latino, but underestimate those who are White or Christian. Previous explanations of these estimation errors have invoked topic-specific mechanisms such as xenophobia or media bias. We reconsidered this pattern of errors in the light of more than 30 years of research on the psychological processes involved in proportion estimation and decision-making under uncertainty. In two publicly available datasets featuring demographic estimates from 14 countries, we found that proportion estimates of national demographics correspond closely to what is found in laboratory studies of quantitative estimates more generally. Biases in demographic estimation, therefore, are part of a very general pattern of human psychology—independent of the particular topic or demographic under consideration—that explains most of the error in estimates of the size of politically salient populations. By situating demographic estimates within a broader understanding of general quantity estimation, these results demand reevaluation of both topic-specific misinformation about demographic facts and topic-specific explanations of demographic ignorance, such as media bias and xenophobia.
Abstract: When it comes to knowledge of demographic facts, misinformation appears to be the norm. Americans massively overestimate the proportions of their fellow citizens who are immigrants, Muslim, LGBTQ, and Latino, but underestimate those who are White or Christian. Previous explanations of these estimation errors have invoked topic-specific mechanisms such as xenophobia or media bias. We reconsidered this pattern of errors in the light of more than 30 years of research on the psychological processes involved in proportion estimation and decision-making under uncertainty. In two publicly available datasets featuring demographic estimates from 14 countries, we found that proportion estimates of national demographics correspond closely to what is found in laboratory studies of quantitative estimates more generally. Biases in demographic estimation, therefore, are part of a very general pattern of human psychology—independent of the particular topic or demographic under consideration—that explains most of the error in estimates of the size of politically salient populations. By situating demographic estimates within a broader understanding of general quantity estimation, these results demand reevaluation of both topic-specific misinformation about demographic facts and topic-specific explanations of demographic ignorance, such as media bias and xenophobia.
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Visually conspicuous vehicle modifications influence perceptions of male owner's reproductive strategy and attractiveness
Visually conspicuous vehicle modifications influence perceptions of male owner's reproductive strategy and attractiveness. Daniel J. Kruger and Jessica S. Kruger. EvoS Journal: The Journal of the Evolutionary Studies Consortium. 2016, NEEPS Special Issue pp. 1-12. http://www-personal.umich.edu/~kruger/Krugers_Rims_Evos_2016.pdf
ABSTRACT: Resource displays are an important aspect of male mating effort. Males with relatively higher mating effort may invest proportionally more in economic display at the expense of savings and paternal investment. We predicted that aftermarket motor vehicle modifications would influence perceptions of male vehicle owners. Male owners of vehicles with upgraded wheels, compared to owners of vehicles with stock wheels, would be rated 1a) higher on mating effort, 1b) lower on parental investment, 2a) higher in interest for brief sexual affairs, 2b) lower in interest for long-term committed romantic relationships, 3a) higher in attractiveness to women for brief sexual affairs, and 3b) lower in attractiveness to women for long-term committed romantic relationships. We used before and after modification images of a Jeep Rubicon and Chrysler 300. Results for ratings of Jeep owners supported all hypotheses, but only for male participants. Results for ratings of Chrysler 300 owners supported hypotheses regarding life history dimensions (1a and 1b) and attractiveness to women (3a and 3b) for all participants. Results for ratings of Chrysler 300 owners' relationship interest (2a and 2b) fit the predicted pattern for the upgraded vehicle, but not in comparisons with the stock vehicle.
KEYWORDS: Conspicuous consumption, costly signaling, life history, mating strategy, automobile
ABSTRACT: Resource displays are an important aspect of male mating effort. Males with relatively higher mating effort may invest proportionally more in economic display at the expense of savings and paternal investment. We predicted that aftermarket motor vehicle modifications would influence perceptions of male vehicle owners. Male owners of vehicles with upgraded wheels, compared to owners of vehicles with stock wheels, would be rated 1a) higher on mating effort, 1b) lower on parental investment, 2a) higher in interest for brief sexual affairs, 2b) lower in interest for long-term committed romantic relationships, 3a) higher in attractiveness to women for brief sexual affairs, and 3b) lower in attractiveness to women for long-term committed romantic relationships. We used before and after modification images of a Jeep Rubicon and Chrysler 300. Results for ratings of Jeep owners supported all hypotheses, but only for male participants. Results for ratings of Chrysler 300 owners supported hypotheses regarding life history dimensions (1a and 1b) and attractiveness to women (3a and 3b) for all participants. Results for ratings of Chrysler 300 owners' relationship interest (2a and 2b) fit the predicted pattern for the upgraded vehicle, but not in comparisons with the stock vehicle.
KEYWORDS: Conspicuous consumption, costly signaling, life history, mating strategy, automobile
Openness to Experience and Conscientiousness are consistent predictors of authoritarian tendencies
The Prejudiced Personality? Using the Big Five to Predict Susceptibility to Stereotyping Behavior. Philip Chen and Carl Palmer. American Politics Research, https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X17719720
Abstract: Although long privileged by scholarship in psychology, personality has only recently been considered as an influential factor for political orientations and actions. In this article, we consider personality’s influence on another important tendency: the proclivity to engage in stereotyping and prejudicial thinking. Using a personality battery included for the first time on the 2012 American National Election Study (ANES), we examine the tendencies of particular personality types to stereotype. Results suggest that the two most politically relevant traits (Openness to Experience and Conscientiousness) are consistent predictors of authoritarian tendencies, which, in turn, produce indirect effects of personality on group-centric policy positions, over and above the effects through political predispositions such as partisanship. Our findings demonstrate the important role of group stereotyping in mediating the effects of personality on policy support.
Abstract: Although long privileged by scholarship in psychology, personality has only recently been considered as an influential factor for political orientations and actions. In this article, we consider personality’s influence on another important tendency: the proclivity to engage in stereotyping and prejudicial thinking. Using a personality battery included for the first time on the 2012 American National Election Study (ANES), we examine the tendencies of particular personality types to stereotype. Results suggest that the two most politically relevant traits (Openness to Experience and Conscientiousness) are consistent predictors of authoritarian tendencies, which, in turn, produce indirect effects of personality on group-centric policy positions, over and above the effects through political predispositions such as partisanship. Our findings demonstrate the important role of group stereotyping in mediating the effects of personality on policy support.
Keeping Minorities Happy: Hierarchy Maintenance and Whites’ Decreased Support for Highly Identified White Politicians
Keeping Minorities Happy: Hierarchy Maintenance and Whites’ Decreased Support for Highly Identified White Politicians. Sora Jun, Brian Lowery and Lucia Guillory. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167217722554?journalCode=pspc
Abstract: We test the hypothesis that, to avoid provoking minorities, Whites will withhold their support for White political candidates who are highly identified with their race. In Study 1, we found that White Republicans were less supportive of White candidates the higher the perceived White identity of the candidate due to beliefs that such candidates would provoke racial minorities. In Study 2, we replicated this effect with a manipulation of candidates’ White identity. Study 3 found that Whites reported less support for high-identity candidates when they were led to believe that the hierarchy was unstable rather than stable. Consistent with our hypothesis that those who have the most to lose are most likely to avoid provoking minorities, in Study 4, we found that Whites with high subjective socioeconomic status (SES) varied their support for provocative White candidates as a function of hierarchy stability, whereas those with low subjective SES did not.
Abstract: We test the hypothesis that, to avoid provoking minorities, Whites will withhold their support for White political candidates who are highly identified with their race. In Study 1, we found that White Republicans were less supportive of White candidates the higher the perceived White identity of the candidate due to beliefs that such candidates would provoke racial minorities. In Study 2, we replicated this effect with a manipulation of candidates’ White identity. Study 3 found that Whites reported less support for high-identity candidates when they were led to believe that the hierarchy was unstable rather than stable. Consistent with our hypothesis that those who have the most to lose are most likely to avoid provoking minorities, in Study 4, we found that Whites with high subjective socioeconomic status (SES) varied their support for provocative White candidates as a function of hierarchy stability, whereas those with low subjective SES did not.
The Evil Eye: Eye Gaze and Competitiveness in Social Decision Making
Giacomantonio, M., Jordan, J., Federico, F., van den Assem, M. J., and van Dolder, D. (2017) The Evil Eye: Eye Gaze and Competitiveness in Social Decision Making. Eur. J. Soc. Psychol., http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ejsp.2336/full
Abstract: We demonstrate that a person's eye gaze and his/her competitiveness are closely intertwined in social decision making. In an exploratory examination of this relationship, Study 1 uses field data from a high-stakes TV game show to demonstrate that the frequency by which contestants gaze at their opponent's eyes predicts their defection in a variant on the prisoner's dilemma. Studies 2 and 3 use experiments to examine the underlying causality and demonstrate that the relationship between gazing and competitive behavior is bi-directional. In Study 2, fixation on the eyes, compared to the face, increases competitive behavior toward the target in an ultimatum game. In Study 3, we manipulate the framing of a negotiation (cooperative vs. competitive) and use an eye tracker to measure fixation number and time spent fixating on the counterpart's eyes. We find that a competitive negotiation elicits more gazing, which in turn leads to more competitive behavior.
Abstract: We demonstrate that a person's eye gaze and his/her competitiveness are closely intertwined in social decision making. In an exploratory examination of this relationship, Study 1 uses field data from a high-stakes TV game show to demonstrate that the frequency by which contestants gaze at their opponent's eyes predicts their defection in a variant on the prisoner's dilemma. Studies 2 and 3 use experiments to examine the underlying causality and demonstrate that the relationship between gazing and competitive behavior is bi-directional. In Study 2, fixation on the eyes, compared to the face, increases competitive behavior toward the target in an ultimatum game. In Study 3, we manipulate the framing of a negotiation (cooperative vs. competitive) and use an eye tracker to measure fixation number and time spent fixating on the counterpart's eyes. We find that a competitive negotiation elicits more gazing, which in turn leads to more competitive behavior.
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