McIntyre, M. E., 2017: On multi-level thinking and scientific understanding. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 34(10), 1150–1158, doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6283-3.
ABSTRACT: Professor Duzheng YE’s name has been familiar to me ever since my postdoctoral years at MIT with Professors Jule CHARNEY and Norman PHILLIPS, back in the late 1960s. I had the enormous pleasure of meeting Professor YE personally in 1992 in Beijing. His concern to promote the very best science and to use it well, and his thinking on multi-level orderly human activities, reminds me not only of the communication skills we need as scientists but also of the multi-level nature of science itself. Here I want to say something (a) about what science is; (b) about why multi-level thinking—and takign more than one viewpoint—is so important for scientific as well as for other forms of understanding; and (c) about what is meant, at a deep level, by “scientific understanding” and trying to communicate it, not only with lay persons but also across professional disciplines. I hope that Professor YE would approve.
Key words: communication skills, cross-disciplinary communication, scientific understanding, unconscious assumptions, multiple viewpoints, brain hemispheres, biological evolution
Sunday, September 10, 2017
Warm Periods in the 20th Century Not Unprecedented during the Last 2000 Years
Warm Periods in the 20th Century Not Unprecedented during the Last 2000 Years. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Press Release, Aug 08, 2017. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research. Editor: Na CHEN.
http://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/201708/t20170808_181809.shtml
great deal of evidence relating to ancient climate variation is preserved in proxy data such as tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores, stalagmites, corals and historical documents, and these sources carry great significance in evaluating the 20th century warming in the context of the last two millennia.
Prof. GE Quansheng and his group from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, collected a large number of proxies and reconstructed a 2000-year temperature series in China with a 10-year resolution, enabling them to quantitatively reveal the characteristics of temperature change in China over a common era.
"We found four warm epochs, which were AD 1 to AD 200, AD 550 to AD 760, AD 950 to AD 1300, and the 20th century. Cold periods occurred between AD 210 and AD 350, AD 420 and AD 530, AD 780 and AD 940, and AD 1320 and AD 1900. The temperature amplitude between the warmest and coldest decades was 1.3°C," said Prof. GE.
The team found that the most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56 ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented in the last 2000 years, as reconstruction showed records for the period from 981 to 1100, and again from 1201 to 1270, were comparable to those of the present warm period, but with an uncertainty of ±0.28°C to ±0.42°C at the 95% confidence interval. Since 1000 CE—the period covering the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the present warm period—temperature variations over China have typically been in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
They also detected some interactions between temperature variation and precipitation change. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N; wet from 25°–30°N; and dry to the north of 30°N. For all cold periods, the ensemble mean drought/flood spatial patterns showed an east to west distribution, with flooding east of 115°E and drought dominant west of 115°E, with the exception of flooding between approximately110°E and 105°E.
The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change historically were negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods. For example, 25 of the 31 most prosperous periods in imperial China during the past 2000 years occurred during periods of warmth or warming. A cooling trend at the centennial scale and social economic decline run hand-in-hand. The rapid development supported by better resources and a better environment in warm periods could lead to an increase in social vulnerability when the climate turns once more to being relatively colder.
"Throughout China’s history," Prof. GE added, "both rulers and the ruled have adopted strategies and policies to cope with climate change, as permitted by the prevailing geography and circumstances of the time."
(Editor: CHEN Na)
http://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/201708/t20170808_181809.shtml
great deal of evidence relating to ancient climate variation is preserved in proxy data such as tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores, stalagmites, corals and historical documents, and these sources carry great significance in evaluating the 20th century warming in the context of the last two millennia.
Prof. GE Quansheng and his group from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, collected a large number of proxies and reconstructed a 2000-year temperature series in China with a 10-year resolution, enabling them to quantitatively reveal the characteristics of temperature change in China over a common era.
"We found four warm epochs, which were AD 1 to AD 200, AD 550 to AD 760, AD 950 to AD 1300, and the 20th century. Cold periods occurred between AD 210 and AD 350, AD 420 and AD 530, AD 780 and AD 940, and AD 1320 and AD 1900. The temperature amplitude between the warmest and coldest decades was 1.3°C," said Prof. GE.
The team found that the most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56 ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented in the last 2000 years, as reconstruction showed records for the period from 981 to 1100, and again from 1201 to 1270, were comparable to those of the present warm period, but with an uncertainty of ±0.28°C to ±0.42°C at the 95% confidence interval. Since 1000 CE—the period covering the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the present warm period—temperature variations over China have typically been in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
They also detected some interactions between temperature variation and precipitation change. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N; wet from 25°–30°N; and dry to the north of 30°N. For all cold periods, the ensemble mean drought/flood spatial patterns showed an east to west distribution, with flooding east of 115°E and drought dominant west of 115°E, with the exception of flooding between approximately110°E and 105°E.
The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change historically were negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods. For example, 25 of the 31 most prosperous periods in imperial China during the past 2000 years occurred during periods of warmth or warming. A cooling trend at the centennial scale and social economic decline run hand-in-hand. The rapid development supported by better resources and a better environment in warm periods could lead to an increase in social vulnerability when the climate turns once more to being relatively colder.
"Throughout China’s history," Prof. GE added, "both rulers and the ruled have adopted strategies and policies to cope with climate change, as permitted by the prevailing geography and circumstances of the time."
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2000-year temperature reconstruction in China (Image by GE Quansheng)
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Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe
G.A. Hodgkins et al., Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/31/flooding-not-increasing-in-north-america-and-europe-new-study-confirms/
Abstract
Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. ***Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends.*** There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends. […]Is procedural memory enhanced in Tourette syndrome?
Is procedural memory enhanced in Tourette syndrome? Evidence from a sequence learning task. Ádám Takács et al. Cortex, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2017.08.037
Abstract: Procedural memory, which is rooted in the basal ganglia, underlies the learning and processing of numerous automatized motor and cognitive skills, including in language. Not surprisingly, disorders with basal ganglia abnormalities have been found to show impairments of procedural memory. However, brain abnormalities could also lead to atypically enhanced function. Tourette syndrome (TS) is a candidate for enhanced procedural memory, given previous findings of enhanced TS processing of grammar, which likely depends on procedural memory. We comprehensively examined procedural learning, from memory formation to retention, in children with TS and typically developing (TD) children, who performed an implicit sequence learning task over two days. The children with TS showed sequence learning advantages on both days, despite a regression of sequence knowledge overnight to the level of the TD children. This is the first demonstration of procedural learning advantages in any disorder. The findings may further our understanding of procedural memory and its enhancement. The evidence presented here, together with previous findings suggesting enhanced grammar processing in TS, underscore the dependence of language on a system that also subserves visuomotor sequencing.
Keywords: basal ganglia; implicit learning; sequence learning; procedural memory; Tourette syndrome
Abstract: Procedural memory, which is rooted in the basal ganglia, underlies the learning and processing of numerous automatized motor and cognitive skills, including in language. Not surprisingly, disorders with basal ganglia abnormalities have been found to show impairments of procedural memory. However, brain abnormalities could also lead to atypically enhanced function. Tourette syndrome (TS) is a candidate for enhanced procedural memory, given previous findings of enhanced TS processing of grammar, which likely depends on procedural memory. We comprehensively examined procedural learning, from memory formation to retention, in children with TS and typically developing (TD) children, who performed an implicit sequence learning task over two days. The children with TS showed sequence learning advantages on both days, despite a regression of sequence knowledge overnight to the level of the TD children. This is the first demonstration of procedural learning advantages in any disorder. The findings may further our understanding of procedural memory and its enhancement. The evidence presented here, together with previous findings suggesting enhanced grammar processing in TS, underscore the dependence of language on a system that also subserves visuomotor sequencing.
Keywords: basal ganglia; implicit learning; sequence learning; procedural memory; Tourette syndrome
Saturday, September 9, 2017
Analyzing a tool of IS propaganda: Ibn ʿAbdul-Wahhāb’s "Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Kufr Tārik al-Tawḥīd"
Analyzing a tool of IS propaganda: Ibn ʿAbdul-Wahhāb’s "Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Kufr Tārik al-Tawḥīd". Joe Bradford. Draft Paper presented at MeHAT, University of Chicago, 2016.
Abstract: ISIL or ISIS continues to burden the world with political strife and divisive religious rhetoric. One of the main attractions to their ideology is their claim of being a "caliphate upon the prophetic model." This allows them latitude in justifying many of their punitive actions against the populaces of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere while retaining their moniker of being a truly "Islamic" state. One tool for the legitimization of these acts is a text written in the modern period by Muḥammad b. ʿAbdul-Wahhāb (d.1791) titled " Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Disbelief (Kufr) Tārik al-Tawḥīd." That treatise was originally written against the inhabitants of Ḥuraymilāʾ after they rejected the author’s ideas and seceded from the budding Saudi state.
This paper will cover four main topics related to this treatise: 1) A comparison of the IS print of this book to others printed outside IS lands. 2) A catalog and summary of the contents of this treatise, 3) reactions of Wahhabi scholars to it in their own writings, and 4) the genealogy of its legal and theological issues and their presence outside the Wahhabi tradition. To conclude, the proximity of the ideas presented in this treatise to the broader Islamic legal and theological tradition will be determined.
Abstract: ISIL or ISIS continues to burden the world with political strife and divisive religious rhetoric. One of the main attractions to their ideology is their claim of being a "caliphate upon the prophetic model." This allows them latitude in justifying many of their punitive actions against the populaces of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere while retaining their moniker of being a truly "Islamic" state. One tool for the legitimization of these acts is a text written in the modern period by Muḥammad b. ʿAbdul-Wahhāb (d.1791) titled " Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Disbelief (Kufr) Tārik al-Tawḥīd." That treatise was originally written against the inhabitants of Ḥuraymilāʾ after they rejected the author’s ideas and seceded from the budding Saudi state.
This paper will cover four main topics related to this treatise: 1) A comparison of the IS print of this book to others printed outside IS lands. 2) A catalog and summary of the contents of this treatise, 3) reactions of Wahhabi scholars to it in their own writings, and 4) the genealogy of its legal and theological issues and their presence outside the Wahhabi tradition. To conclude, the proximity of the ideas presented in this treatise to the broader Islamic legal and theological tradition will be determined.
Al-Qadā’ wa-l-Qadr: motivational representations of divine decree and predestination in salafi-jihadi literature
Al-Qadā’ wa-l-Qadr: motivational representations of divine decree and predestination in salafi-jihadi literature. Shiraz Maher & Alexandra Bissoondath, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2017.1361317
Abstract: This
paper explores how the normative Islamic concepts of divine decree and
predestination are used for motivational purposes in salafi-jihadi
literature. These concepts are known as al-qaḍā’ wa-l-qadr
within Islamic jurisprudence and assert that certain characteristics in
an individual’s life—such as their lifespan, wealth and progeny—have
already been preordained by God. Salafi-Jihadi groups, not least
al-Qaeda and Islamic State, frame these concepts in unique and important
ways to motivate their fighters on the battlefield, liberating them
from fear of personal consequences. In particular, we examine the use of
this concept not just to motivate fighters at a personal level, but
also its role in maintaining morale during times of hardship, its
ability to explain away failures and defeats, and its ability to project
both momentum and success even when the facts suggest otherwise.
Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds
Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds. Joaquin Navajas, Tamara Niella, Gerry Garbulsky, Bahador Bahrami, Mariano Sigman. ArXiv Mar 2017, https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.00045
Abstract: The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has recently been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that the key to collective accuracy is to preserve the independence of individuals in a crowd. Contrary to this prevailing view, we show that deliberation and discussion improves collective wisdom. We asked a live crowd (N=5180) to respond to general knowledge questions (e.g. the height of the Eiffel Tower). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that consensus and revised estimates were less biased and more diverse than what a uniform aggregation of independent opinions could achieve. Consequently, the average of different consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the independent opinions. Even combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals. Our results indicate that averaging information from independent debates is a highly effective strategy for harnessing our collective knowledge.
Abstract: The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has recently been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that the key to collective accuracy is to preserve the independence of individuals in a crowd. Contrary to this prevailing view, we show that deliberation and discussion improves collective wisdom. We asked a live crowd (N=5180) to respond to general knowledge questions (e.g. the height of the Eiffel Tower). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that consensus and revised estimates were less biased and more diverse than what a uniform aggregation of independent opinions could achieve. Consequently, the average of different consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the independent opinions. Even combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals. Our results indicate that averaging information from independent debates is a highly effective strategy for harnessing our collective knowledge.
The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict
The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict. Angel Gomez et al. Nature Human Behaviour 1, 673–679 (2017), doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0193-3
Abstract: Frontline investigations with fighters against the Islamic State (ISIL or ISIS), combined with multiple online studies, address willingness to fight and die in intergroup conflict. The general focus is on non-utilitarian aspects of human conflict, which combatants themselves deem ‘sacred’ or ‘spiritual’, whether secular or religious. Here we investigate two key components of a theoretical framework we call ‘the devoted actor’—sacred values and identity fusion with a group—to better understand people’s willingness to make costly sacrifices. We reveal three crucial factors: commitment to non-negotiable sacred values and the groups that the actors are wholly fused with; readiness to forsake kin for those values; and perceived spiritual strength of ingroup versus foes as more important than relative material strength. We directly relate expressed willingness for action to behaviour as a check on claims that decisions in extreme conflicts are driven by cost–benefit calculations, which may help to inform policy decisions for the common defense.
Abstract: Frontline investigations with fighters against the Islamic State (ISIL or ISIS), combined with multiple online studies, address willingness to fight and die in intergroup conflict. The general focus is on non-utilitarian aspects of human conflict, which combatants themselves deem ‘sacred’ or ‘spiritual’, whether secular or religious. Here we investigate two key components of a theoretical framework we call ‘the devoted actor’—sacred values and identity fusion with a group—to better understand people’s willingness to make costly sacrifices. We reveal three crucial factors: commitment to non-negotiable sacred values and the groups that the actors are wholly fused with; readiness to forsake kin for those values; and perceived spiritual strength of ingroup versus foes as more important than relative material strength. We directly relate expressed willingness for action to behaviour as a check on claims that decisions in extreme conflicts are driven by cost–benefit calculations, which may help to inform policy decisions for the common defense.
Not Threat, But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy
Not Threat, But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy. Donald P Haider-Markel & Mark R Joslyn. Journal of Homosexuality, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00918369.2017.1377490
ABSTRACT: Existing literature on numeracy suggests that people are likely to perceive out-groups as larger if the group is perceived as threating. However, some studies also suggest that numeracy is a function of wishful thinking or even a lack of political knowledge. We engage the literature on numeracy of the gay and lesbian population by employing data from 1977 and 2013 surveys of American adults. We examine the factors that are associated with estimating the gay population. Next we explore how innumeracy may shape attitudes about homosexuality and gay rights. Our findings suggest that estimates of the gay population are partly a function of knowledge, and perhaps wishful thinking, but not threat. However, our analysis also reveals that higher estimates of the gay population are associated less support for gay civil rights in the current era, and were not a factor in the past.
KEYWORDS: Numeracy, innumeracy, gay population, rights, policy attitudes, threat, knowledge
ABSTRACT: Existing literature on numeracy suggests that people are likely to perceive out-groups as larger if the group is perceived as threating. However, some studies also suggest that numeracy is a function of wishful thinking or even a lack of political knowledge. We engage the literature on numeracy of the gay and lesbian population by employing data from 1977 and 2013 surveys of American adults. We examine the factors that are associated with estimating the gay population. Next we explore how innumeracy may shape attitudes about homosexuality and gay rights. Our findings suggest that estimates of the gay population are partly a function of knowledge, and perhaps wishful thinking, but not threat. However, our analysis also reveals that higher estimates of the gay population are associated less support for gay civil rights in the current era, and were not a factor in the past.
KEYWORDS: Numeracy, innumeracy, gay population, rights, policy attitudes, threat, knowledge
Hedonic Recall Bias. Why You Should Not Ask People How Much They Earn
Hedonic Recall Bias. Why You Should Not Ask People How Much They Earn. Alberto Prati. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.002
Highlights
• Survey data lead to large over-estimation of the effect of wage on wage satisfaction
• Income misreporting in surveys is not random, but endogenous
• People relatively more satisfied with their wage tend to over-report their wage
• People relatively less satisfied with their wage tend to under-report their wage
Abstract: The empirical literature which explores the effect of wage on job satisfaction typically uses data drawn from social surveys. In these surveys, the amount of wage is reported by the respondents themselves: thus, the explanatory variable of the econometric models may differ from the true wage people earn. Our paper shows that the use of survey data can lead to considerable over-estimation of the importance of wage as a determinant of wage satisfaction. In particular, responses seem to be affected by a recall bias: people who are satisfied with their wage are more likely to over-report their wage in questionnaires. The more satisfied they are the more they over-report (and vice-versa unsatisfied people). We name this behavioral disposition “hedonic recall bias”.
JEL classification: D03; J28
Keywords: Recall bias; Job satisfaction; Wage satisfaction; Measurement error; Survey income
Highlights
• Survey data lead to large over-estimation of the effect of wage on wage satisfaction
• Income misreporting in surveys is not random, but endogenous
• People relatively more satisfied with their wage tend to over-report their wage
• People relatively less satisfied with their wage tend to under-report their wage
Abstract: The empirical literature which explores the effect of wage on job satisfaction typically uses data drawn from social surveys. In these surveys, the amount of wage is reported by the respondents themselves: thus, the explanatory variable of the econometric models may differ from the true wage people earn. Our paper shows that the use of survey data can lead to considerable over-estimation of the importance of wage as a determinant of wage satisfaction. In particular, responses seem to be affected by a recall bias: people who are satisfied with their wage are more likely to over-report their wage in questionnaires. The more satisfied they are the more they over-report (and vice-versa unsatisfied people). We name this behavioral disposition “hedonic recall bias”.
JEL classification: D03; J28
Keywords: Recall bias; Job satisfaction; Wage satisfaction; Measurement error; Survey income
Psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations
Psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Kohske Takahashi, Haruaki Fukuda, Katsumi Watanabe, Kazuhiro Uedab. Food Quality and Preference, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2017.09.004
Highlights
• Animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food.
• Realistic animal-themed decoration decreases the value of food.
• The effects of animal-themed decoration depend on the animal-likeness of the food.
Abstract: Food appearance influences the food’s perceived value. It is paradoxical that animal-shaped foods (e.g., animal crackers) are popular and widely accepted among consumers, given that foods with an animal likeness usually elicit emotional disgust and avoidance behaviors. We experimentally tested the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Participants evaluated their willingness to eat chocolate, kamaboko (a Japanese processed seafood product), and sashimi on which pictures of animals had been painted. We found that the perceived value of food did not improve by adding animal-themed decorations. In fact, the decoration drastically reduced the value of the foods actually made from animals (i.e., kamaboko and sashimi). The model analyses further confirmed that the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations partly depended on whether the food was of animal origin or not. Furthermore, animal pictures with stronger animacy (i.e., realism) enhanced the negative influences of these decorations on the willingness to eat kamaboko and sashimi. These results together suggest that animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food per se, perhaps because they emphasize the resemblance of foods to animals and thereby increase emotional disgust.
Highlights
• Animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food.
• Realistic animal-themed decoration decreases the value of food.
• The effects of animal-themed decoration depend on the animal-likeness of the food.
Abstract: Food appearance influences the food’s perceived value. It is paradoxical that animal-shaped foods (e.g., animal crackers) are popular and widely accepted among consumers, given that foods with an animal likeness usually elicit emotional disgust and avoidance behaviors. We experimentally tested the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Participants evaluated their willingness to eat chocolate, kamaboko (a Japanese processed seafood product), and sashimi on which pictures of animals had been painted. We found that the perceived value of food did not improve by adding animal-themed decorations. In fact, the decoration drastically reduced the value of the foods actually made from animals (i.e., kamaboko and sashimi). The model analyses further confirmed that the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations partly depended on whether the food was of animal origin or not. Furthermore, animal pictures with stronger animacy (i.e., realism) enhanced the negative influences of these decorations on the willingness to eat kamaboko and sashimi. These results together suggest that animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food per se, perhaps because they emphasize the resemblance of foods to animals and thereby increase emotional disgust.
Friday, September 8, 2017
Estimates of Non-Heterosexual Prevalence: The Roles of Anonymity and Privacy in Survey Methodology
Estimates of Non-Heterosexual Prevalence: The Roles of Anonymity and Privacy in Survey Methodology. Ronald E. Robertson et al. Archives of Sexual Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-017-1044-z
Abstract: When do people feel comfortable enough to provide honest answers to sensitive questions? Focusing specifically on sexual orientation prevalence—a measure that is sensitive to the pressures of heteronormativity—the present study was conducted to examine the variability in U.S. estimates of non-heterosexual identity prevalence and to determine how comfortable people are with answering questions about their sexual orientation when asked through commonly used survey modes. We found that estimates of non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. increased as the privacy and anonymity of the survey increased. Utilizing an online questionnaire, we rank-ordered 16 survey modes by asking people to rate their level of comfort with each mode in the context of being asked questions about their sexual orientation. A demographically diverse sample of 652 individuals in the U.S. rated each mode on a scale from −5 (very uncomfortable) to +5 (very comfortable). Modes included anonymous (name not required) and non-anonymous (name required) versions of questions, as well as self-administered and interviewer-administered versions. Subjects reported significantly higher mean comfort levels with anonymous modes than with non-anonymous modes and significantly higher mean comfort levels with self-administered modes than with interviewer-administered modes. Subjects reported the highest mean comfort level with anonymous online surveys and the lowest with non-anonymous personal interviews that included a video recording. Compared with the estimate produced by an online survey with a nationally representative sample, surveys utilizing more intrusive methodologies may have underestimated non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. by between 50 and 414%. Implications for public policy are discussed.
Abstract: When do people feel comfortable enough to provide honest answers to sensitive questions? Focusing specifically on sexual orientation prevalence—a measure that is sensitive to the pressures of heteronormativity—the present study was conducted to examine the variability in U.S. estimates of non-heterosexual identity prevalence and to determine how comfortable people are with answering questions about their sexual orientation when asked through commonly used survey modes. We found that estimates of non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. increased as the privacy and anonymity of the survey increased. Utilizing an online questionnaire, we rank-ordered 16 survey modes by asking people to rate their level of comfort with each mode in the context of being asked questions about their sexual orientation. A demographically diverse sample of 652 individuals in the U.S. rated each mode on a scale from −5 (very uncomfortable) to +5 (very comfortable). Modes included anonymous (name not required) and non-anonymous (name required) versions of questions, as well as self-administered and interviewer-administered versions. Subjects reported significantly higher mean comfort levels with anonymous modes than with non-anonymous modes and significantly higher mean comfort levels with self-administered modes than with interviewer-administered modes. Subjects reported the highest mean comfort level with anonymous online surveys and the lowest with non-anonymous personal interviews that included a video recording. Compared with the estimate produced by an online survey with a nationally representative sample, surveys utilizing more intrusive methodologies may have underestimated non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. by between 50 and 414%. Implications for public policy are discussed.
Emotions Know Best: The Advantage of Emotional versus Cognitive Responses to Failure
Nelson, N., Malkoc, S. A., and Shiv, B. (2017) Emotions Know Best: The Advantage of Emotional versus Cognitive Responses to Failure. J. Behav. Dec. Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2042.
Abstract: Making mistakes or failing at tasks is a common occurrence in human life. People can respond to and cope with failure in many ways. In this research, we examine potential advantages of relatively emotional (versus cognitive) responses to failure. In particular, we study how effort and time spent in subsequent tasks depend on whether people predominantly focus on their emotions or their cognitions as they respond to a failure. We demonstrate that, left to their own means, people's cognitions upon a failure are mainly justificatory in nature and thus do not automatically have the commonly believed reflective, self-improving qualities. We further argue and demonstrate that a relative focus on cognitions following a failure can prevent improvement in subsequent episodes, but a focus on emotions can allow for learning and, therefore, increased effort.
Abstract: Making mistakes or failing at tasks is a common occurrence in human life. People can respond to and cope with failure in many ways. In this research, we examine potential advantages of relatively emotional (versus cognitive) responses to failure. In particular, we study how effort and time spent in subsequent tasks depend on whether people predominantly focus on their emotions or their cognitions as they respond to a failure. We demonstrate that, left to their own means, people's cognitions upon a failure are mainly justificatory in nature and thus do not automatically have the commonly believed reflective, self-improving qualities. We further argue and demonstrate that a relative focus on cognitions following a failure can prevent improvement in subsequent episodes, but a focus on emotions can allow for learning and, therefore, increased effort.
Chilldren unable to solve school arithmetic problems were able to solve similar ones when framed as market transactions
The untapped math skills of working children in India: Evidence, possible explanations, and implications. Abhijit V. Banerjee et al. MIT Economics, https://economics.mit.edu/files/13531
Abstract: It has been widely documented that many children in India lack basic arithmetic skills, as measured by their capacity to solve subtraction and division problems. We surveyed children working in informal markets in Kolkata, West Bengal, and confirmed that most were unable to solve arithmetic problems as typically presented in school. However, we also found that they were able to perform similar operations when framed as market transactions. This discrepancy was not explained by children’s ability to memorize prices and quantities in market transactions, assistance from others at their shops, reliance on calculation aids, or reading and writing skills. In fact, many children could solve hypothetical transactions of goods that they did not sell. Our results suggest that these children have arithmetic skills that are untapped by the school system.
Abstract: It has been widely documented that many children in India lack basic arithmetic skills, as measured by their capacity to solve subtraction and division problems. We surveyed children working in informal markets in Kolkata, West Bengal, and confirmed that most were unable to solve arithmetic problems as typically presented in school. However, we also found that they were able to perform similar operations when framed as market transactions. This discrepancy was not explained by children’s ability to memorize prices and quantities in market transactions, assistance from others at their shops, reliance on calculation aids, or reading and writing skills. In fact, many children could solve hypothetical transactions of goods that they did not sell. Our results suggest that these children have arithmetic skills that are untapped by the school system.
Observing Others’ Anger and Guilt Can Make You Feel Unfairly Treated: The Interpersonal Effects of Emotions on Justice-Related Reactions
Observing Others’ Anger and Guilt Can Make You Feel Unfairly Treated: The Interpersonal Effects of Emotions on Justice-Related Reactions. Annika Hillebrandt and Laurie J. Barclay. Social Justice Research. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11211-017-0290-5
Abstract: Drawing upon emotions as social information theory, we propose that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ justice judgments, outcome satisfaction, and behaviors even when individuals are not unfairly treated themselves and in the absence of explicit information about the fairness of others’ treatment. Study 1 demonstrated that individuals make inferences about the outcome favorability and procedural justice encountered by others based on others’ expressions of guilt and anger, which also influence individuals’ judgments of others’ overall justice and outcome satisfaction. Studies 2 and 3 demonstrated that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ own judgments of procedural justice and overall justice. Specifically, individuals perceive lower levels of justice when another person expresses guilt or anger relative to no emotion. Moreover, others’ emotions influence individuals’ outcome satisfaction and behaviors (i.e., helping intentions and retaliation); these effects are mediated by individuals’ own justice judgments (i.e., procedural and overall justice). Theoretical implications related to the role of emotions as antecedents to justice judgments, the social function of emotions, and the impact of emotions on third-party observers are discussed.
Abstract: Drawing upon emotions as social information theory, we propose that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ justice judgments, outcome satisfaction, and behaviors even when individuals are not unfairly treated themselves and in the absence of explicit information about the fairness of others’ treatment. Study 1 demonstrated that individuals make inferences about the outcome favorability and procedural justice encountered by others based on others’ expressions of guilt and anger, which also influence individuals’ judgments of others’ overall justice and outcome satisfaction. Studies 2 and 3 demonstrated that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ own judgments of procedural justice and overall justice. Specifically, individuals perceive lower levels of justice when another person expresses guilt or anger relative to no emotion. Moreover, others’ emotions influence individuals’ outcome satisfaction and behaviors (i.e., helping intentions and retaliation); these effects are mediated by individuals’ own justice judgments (i.e., procedural and overall justice). Theoretical implications related to the role of emotions as antecedents to justice judgments, the social function of emotions, and the impact of emotions on third-party observers are discussed.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): A prospective cohort study.
Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): A prospective cohort study. Mahshid Dehghan et al. Lancet, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32252-3
Abstract
Methods: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7•4 years (IQR 5•3–9•3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.
Findings: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1•28 [95% CI 1•12–1•46], ptrend=0•0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0•77 [95% CI 0•67–0•87], ptrend<0 0="" 1="" 5="" and="" associated="" br="" cardiovascular="" ci="" disease="" fat:="" fat="" fats="" higher="" hr="" infarction="" intake="" lower="" monounsaturated="" mortality.="" myocardial="" not="" of="" or="" polyunsaturated="" ptrend="0•0498)." quintile="" risk="" saturated="" significantly="" stroke="" total="" unsaturated="" vs="" was="" were="" with="">
Interpretation: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.
Abstract
Methods: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7•4 years (IQR 5•3–9•3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.
Findings: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1•28 [95% CI 1•12–1•46], ptrend=0•0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0•77 [95% CI 0•67–0•87], ptrend<0 0="" 1="" 5="" and="" associated="" br="" cardiovascular="" ci="" disease="" fat:="" fat="" fats="" higher="" hr="" infarction="" intake="" lower="" monounsaturated="" mortality.="" myocardial="" not="" of="" or="" polyunsaturated="" ptrend="0•0498)." quintile="" risk="" saturated="" significantly="" stroke="" total="" unsaturated="" vs="" was="" were="" with="">
Interpretation: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.
Examining the “Veggie” personality: Results from a representative German sample
Examining the “Veggie” personality: Results from a representative German sample. Tamara M. Pfeiler and Boris Egloff. Appetite, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2017.09.005
Abstract: An increasing proportion of people choose to follow a vegetarian diet. To date, however, little is known about if and how individual differences in personality relate to following a vegetarian diet. In the two studies presented here, we aimed to (1) estimate the prevalence of self-defined vegetarians in two waves of a German representative sample (N = 4496 and 5,125, respectively), (2) analyze the effect of socio-demographic variables on dietary behavior, and (3) examine individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. In Study 1, a strict definition of vegetarians was used, while in Study 2 the definition was laxer, to include also individuals who only predominantly followed a vegetarian diet. The prevalence of self-defined vegetarians was 2.74% in Study 1, and 5.97% in Study 2. Participants who were female, younger, and more educated were more likely to report following a vegetarian diet in both studies, and vegetarians had higher income as compared to meat eaters in Study 2. We also found differences between vegetarians and meat eaters with regard to personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. Stepwise logistic regression analyses showed a unique effect beyond socio-demographic variables for openness (Studies 1 and 2), conscientiousness (Study 1), trust (Study 2), conservatism (Studies 1 and 2), and level of interest in politics (Study 1) on diet: Individuals with higher scores in openness and political interest had a higher probability of being vegetarian, whereas people with higher scores in conscientiousness and conservatism had a smaller likelihood of being vegetarian. We conclude that there are individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in socio-demographics, personality traits, and political attitudes.
Keywords: Vegetarian diet; Personality traits; Big Five; Prevalence; Meat eating; Political attitudes
Abstract: An increasing proportion of people choose to follow a vegetarian diet. To date, however, little is known about if and how individual differences in personality relate to following a vegetarian diet. In the two studies presented here, we aimed to (1) estimate the prevalence of self-defined vegetarians in two waves of a German representative sample (N = 4496 and 5,125, respectively), (2) analyze the effect of socio-demographic variables on dietary behavior, and (3) examine individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. In Study 1, a strict definition of vegetarians was used, while in Study 2 the definition was laxer, to include also individuals who only predominantly followed a vegetarian diet. The prevalence of self-defined vegetarians was 2.74% in Study 1, and 5.97% in Study 2. Participants who were female, younger, and more educated were more likely to report following a vegetarian diet in both studies, and vegetarians had higher income as compared to meat eaters in Study 2. We also found differences between vegetarians and meat eaters with regard to personality traits, political attitudes, and health-related variables. Stepwise logistic regression analyses showed a unique effect beyond socio-demographic variables for openness (Studies 1 and 2), conscientiousness (Study 1), trust (Study 2), conservatism (Studies 1 and 2), and level of interest in politics (Study 1) on diet: Individuals with higher scores in openness and political interest had a higher probability of being vegetarian, whereas people with higher scores in conscientiousness and conservatism had a smaller likelihood of being vegetarian. We conclude that there are individual differences between vegetarians and meat eaters in socio-demographics, personality traits, and political attitudes.
Keywords: Vegetarian diet; Personality traits; Big Five; Prevalence; Meat eating; Political attitudes
Stylized and photographic eye images do not increase charitable donations in a field experiment
Stylized and photographic eye images do not increase charitable donations in a field experiment. Paul Lennon, Rachel Grant, and V. Tamara Montrose. Letters on Evolutionary Behavioral Science, Vol 8, No 2 (2017). http://lebs.hbesj.org/index.php/lebs/article/view/lebs.2017.60
Abstract: The effects of watching eyes upon prosocial behavior have been explored in various contexts, for example, in relation to charitable donations, honor-system payments and littering. Whilst studies have explored the effects of both photographic and stylized eyes upon prosocial behavior, no study, to our knowledge, has compared stylized eyes to photographic eyes. Here we explored the effects of stylized and photographic eye images upon prosocial behavior assessed via charitable donations in a ‘free cakes’ field experiment. Charitable giving was assessed under six eye image conditions, three stylized eye images (evil eye, eye of Horus, all-seeing eye), one photographic eye image (human eye image) and two control images (geometric shape control and blank control). No difference in the amount of money donated was found between any of the eye image conditions. These results suggest that watching eyes, whether stylized or photographic, are not effective at eliciting prosocial behavior via charitable giving. However, further study contrasting single and paired eye imagery, and exploration of the effects of stylized eye imagery in deterring littering and crime, would be beneficial.
Abstract: The effects of watching eyes upon prosocial behavior have been explored in various contexts, for example, in relation to charitable donations, honor-system payments and littering. Whilst studies have explored the effects of both photographic and stylized eyes upon prosocial behavior, no study, to our knowledge, has compared stylized eyes to photographic eyes. Here we explored the effects of stylized and photographic eye images upon prosocial behavior assessed via charitable donations in a ‘free cakes’ field experiment. Charitable giving was assessed under six eye image conditions, three stylized eye images (evil eye, eye of Horus, all-seeing eye), one photographic eye image (human eye image) and two control images (geometric shape control and blank control). No difference in the amount of money donated was found between any of the eye image conditions. These results suggest that watching eyes, whether stylized or photographic, are not effective at eliciting prosocial behavior via charitable giving. However, further study contrasting single and paired eye imagery, and exploration of the effects of stylized eye imagery in deterring littering and crime, would be beneficial.
If mice could read, they would read the scandals in the tabloid press
Social inequality aversion in mice: Analysis with stress-induced hyperthermia and behavioral preference. Shigeru Watanabe. Learning and Motivation, Volume 59, August 2017, Pages 38-46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lmot.2017.08.002
Highlights
• Social inequality aversion is examined in food delivery situation.
• Mice display social inequality aversion detected by hyperthermia.
• Mice stay longer in the inequality situation in behavioral test.
• Thus, the mice approach to the inequality situation that caused aversion.
• This approaching behavior indicates informative value for the subjects.
Abstract: Humans have a sense of fairness and consequently are averse to inequality conditions. Recently, animal researchers suggested that some non-human animals also have inequality aversion. The author used stress-induced hyperthermia (SIH) to examine inequality aversion in mice. Experiment 1 measured the change in body surface temperature of mice under the condition of equality or inequality of food delivery. The results demonstrated that mice exhibited a large increment in body surface temperature when given a small piece of cheese and a cage mate was given a large piece. There was no increment in body temperature in equality conditions in which both the subject and the cage mate were given the same amount of cheese. The increase in body temperature was considered stress-induced hyperthermia caused by social inequality aversion. This is the first demonstration of inequality aversion of food delivery in mice. Simultaneous presentation of a large piece of cheese and a cage mate resulted in SIH in observer mice that were given a small piece of cheese, even though the cage mate was separated from the cheese by a partition to prevent it from eating the cheese. In Experiment 2, behavioral effects of inequality were examined in a chamber with two compartments. Mice could observe a cage mate in an adjacent compartment. They preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone. This result suggests inequality preference rather than inequality aversion. Thus, the results of Experiments 1 and 2 were contradictory. In a subsequent Experiment 3, both behavioral preference and body surface temperature were measured simultaneously. Mice stayed longer in the inequality condition compartment (cheese-eating cage mate), although inequality caused SIH. Supporting the results of both Experiments 1 and 2. Thus, social inequality induced stress (aversive property) but it also induced approaching behavior that might be maintained by the informative value of a food-eating cage mate.
My comment: It is as if the frustrated mouse, the one that "preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone," valued so much to be informed of the high-powered life that the other mouse lives that it compensates him for the inequality... Suffering envy but losing no details of the life of the rich and powerful mice is like reading the tabloid press, with all kind of minutiae about the jet set life.
Check also: Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion. Shigeru Watanabe and Yutaka Kosaki. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 273-299, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/evolutionary-origin-of-empathy-and.html
Highlights
• Social inequality aversion is examined in food delivery situation.
• Mice display social inequality aversion detected by hyperthermia.
• Mice stay longer in the inequality situation in behavioral test.
• Thus, the mice approach to the inequality situation that caused aversion.
• This approaching behavior indicates informative value for the subjects.
Abstract: Humans have a sense of fairness and consequently are averse to inequality conditions. Recently, animal researchers suggested that some non-human animals also have inequality aversion. The author used stress-induced hyperthermia (SIH) to examine inequality aversion in mice. Experiment 1 measured the change in body surface temperature of mice under the condition of equality or inequality of food delivery. The results demonstrated that mice exhibited a large increment in body surface temperature when given a small piece of cheese and a cage mate was given a large piece. There was no increment in body temperature in equality conditions in which both the subject and the cage mate were given the same amount of cheese. The increase in body temperature was considered stress-induced hyperthermia caused by social inequality aversion. This is the first demonstration of inequality aversion of food delivery in mice. Simultaneous presentation of a large piece of cheese and a cage mate resulted in SIH in observer mice that were given a small piece of cheese, even though the cage mate was separated from the cheese by a partition to prevent it from eating the cheese. In Experiment 2, behavioral effects of inequality were examined in a chamber with two compartments. Mice could observe a cage mate in an adjacent compartment. They preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone. This result suggests inequality preference rather than inequality aversion. Thus, the results of Experiments 1 and 2 were contradictory. In a subsequent Experiment 3, both behavioral preference and body surface temperature were measured simultaneously. Mice stayed longer in the inequality condition compartment (cheese-eating cage mate), although inequality caused SIH. Supporting the results of both Experiments 1 and 2. Thus, social inequality induced stress (aversive property) but it also induced approaching behavior that might be maintained by the informative value of a food-eating cage mate.
My comment: It is as if the frustrated mouse, the one that "preferred a compartment with a cheese-eating cage mate to a compartment with cheese alone or cage mate alone," valued so much to be informed of the high-powered life that the other mouse lives that it compensates him for the inequality... Suffering envy but losing no details of the life of the rich and powerful mice is like reading the tabloid press, with all kind of minutiae about the jet set life.
Check also: Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion. Shigeru Watanabe and Yutaka Kosaki. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 273-299, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/evolutionary-origin-of-empathy-and.html
Higher long-term lithium levels in drinking water may be associated with less dementia
Association of Lithium in Drinking Water With the Incidence of Dementia. Lars Vedel Kessing et al. JAMA Psychiatry, http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/article-abstract/2649277
* Key Points
Question: Is a higher lithium level in drinking water associated with a decreased incidence of dementia?
Findings: In this Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 control individuals, the level of lithium exposure was lower for patients with a diagnosis of dementia than for controls. Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
Meaning: Exposure to higher long-term lithium levels in drinking water may be associated with a lower incidence of dementia.
* Abstract
Importance: Results from animal and human studies suggest that lithium in therapeutic doses may improve learning and memory and modify the risk of developing dementia. Additional preliminary studies suggest that subtherapeutic levels, including microlevels of lithium, may influence human cognition.
Objective: To investigate whether the incidence of dementia in the general population covaries with long-term exposure to microlevels of lithium in drinking water.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study examined longitudinal, individual geographic data on municipality of residence and data from drinking water measurements combined with time-specific data from all patients aged 50 to 90 years with a hospital contact with a diagnosis of dementia from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2013, and 10 age- and sex-matched control individuals from the Danish population. The mean lithium exposure in drinking water since 1986 was estimated for all study individuals. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2013.
Results: A total of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 controls (median age, 80.3 years; interquartile range, 74.9-84.6 years; 44 760 female [60.7%] and 28 971 male [39.3%]) were included in the study. Lithium exposure was statistically significantly different between patients with a diagnosis of dementia (median, 11.5 µg/L; interquartile range, 6.5-14.9 µg/L) and controls (median, 12.2 µg/L; interquartile range, 7.3-16.0 µg/L; P < .001). A nonlinear association was observed. Compared with individuals exposed to 2.0 to 5.0 µg/L, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dementia was decreased in those exposed to more than 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85; P < .001) and 10.1 to 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01; P = .17) and increased with 5.1 to 10.0 µg/L (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25; P < .001). Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
* Key Points
Question: Is a higher lithium level in drinking water associated with a decreased incidence of dementia?
Findings: In this Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 control individuals, the level of lithium exposure was lower for patients with a diagnosis of dementia than for controls. Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
Meaning: Exposure to higher long-term lithium levels in drinking water may be associated with a lower incidence of dementia.
* Abstract
Importance: Results from animal and human studies suggest that lithium in therapeutic doses may improve learning and memory and modify the risk of developing dementia. Additional preliminary studies suggest that subtherapeutic levels, including microlevels of lithium, may influence human cognition.
Objective: To investigate whether the incidence of dementia in the general population covaries with long-term exposure to microlevels of lithium in drinking water.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study examined longitudinal, individual geographic data on municipality of residence and data from drinking water measurements combined with time-specific data from all patients aged 50 to 90 years with a hospital contact with a diagnosis of dementia from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2013, and 10 age- and sex-matched control individuals from the Danish population. The mean lithium exposure in drinking water since 1986 was estimated for all study individuals. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2013.
Results: A total of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 controls (median age, 80.3 years; interquartile range, 74.9-84.6 years; 44 760 female [60.7%] and 28 971 male [39.3%]) were included in the study. Lithium exposure was statistically significantly different between patients with a diagnosis of dementia (median, 11.5 µg/L; interquartile range, 6.5-14.9 µg/L) and controls (median, 12.2 µg/L; interquartile range, 7.3-16.0 µg/L; P < .001). A nonlinear association was observed. Compared with individuals exposed to 2.0 to 5.0 µg/L, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dementia was decreased in those exposed to more than 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85; P < .001) and 10.1 to 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01; P = .17) and increased with 5.1 to 10.0 µg/L (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25; P < .001). Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes.
A 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for teens
Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage: Panel Data Evidence from Canadian Provinces. Kate Rybczynski and Anindya Sen. Contemporary Economic Policy, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coep.12241/full
Abstract: Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime-aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity.
Abstract: Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime-aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity.
Deep Neural Networks Are More Accurate Than Humans at Detecting Sexual Orientation from Facial Images
Kosinski, Michal, and Yilun Wang. 2017. “Deep Neural Networks Are More Accurate Than Humans at Detecting Sexual Orientation from Facial Images.”. PsyArXiv. September 7. https://psyarxiv.com/hv28a
Abstract: We show that faces contain much more information about sexual orientation than can be perceived and interpreted by the human brain. We used deep neural networks to extract features from 35,326 facial images. These features were entered into a logistic regression aimed at classifying sexual orientation. Given a single facial image, a classifier could correctly distinguish between gay and heterosexual men in 81% of cases, and in 74% of cases for women. Human judges achieved much lower accuracy: 61% for men and 54% for women. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 91% and 83%, respectively, given five facial images per person. Facial features employed by the classifier included both fixed (e.g., nose shape) and transient facial features (e.g., grooming style). Consistent with the prenatal hormone theory of sexual orientation, gay men and women tended to have gender-atypical facial morphology, expression, and grooming styles. Prediction models aimed at gender alone allowed for detecting gay males with 57% accuracy and gay females with 58% accuracy. Those findings advance our understanding of the origins of sexual orientation and the limits of human perception. Additionally, given that companies and governments are increasingly using computer vision algorithms to detect people’s intimate traits, our findings expose a threat to the privacy and safety of gay men and women.
Abstract: We show that faces contain much more information about sexual orientation than can be perceived and interpreted by the human brain. We used deep neural networks to extract features from 35,326 facial images. These features were entered into a logistic regression aimed at classifying sexual orientation. Given a single facial image, a classifier could correctly distinguish between gay and heterosexual men in 81% of cases, and in 74% of cases for women. Human judges achieved much lower accuracy: 61% for men and 54% for women. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 91% and 83%, respectively, given five facial images per person. Facial features employed by the classifier included both fixed (e.g., nose shape) and transient facial features (e.g., grooming style). Consistent with the prenatal hormone theory of sexual orientation, gay men and women tended to have gender-atypical facial morphology, expression, and grooming styles. Prediction models aimed at gender alone allowed for detecting gay males with 57% accuracy and gay females with 58% accuracy. Those findings advance our understanding of the origins of sexual orientation and the limits of human perception. Additionally, given that companies and governments are increasingly using computer vision algorithms to detect people’s intimate traits, our findings expose a threat to the privacy and safety of gay men and women.
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
A randomized controlled evaluation of a secondary school mindfulness program for early adolescents
A randomized controlled evaluation of a secondary school mindfulness program for early adolescents: Do we have the recipe right yet? Catherine Johnson et al. Behaviour Research and Therapy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2017.09.001
Highlights
• We investigated the .b mindfulness program for a second time in early adolescents.
• We tightened adherence to the manualised curriculum.
• Parental involvement was added in one arm of the RCT design.
• We found no differences between the mindfulness groups with/without parental involvement and the control group.
• Further research is required to identify optimal age and content of school-based mindfulness programs.
Abstract
Objective: Mindfulness is being promoted in schools as a prevention program despite a current small evidence base. The aim of this research was to conduct a rigorous evaluation of the .b (“Dot be”) mindfulness curriculum, with or without parental involvement, compared to a control condition.
Method: In a randomized controlled design, students (Mage 13.44, SD 0.33; 45.4% female) across a broad range of socioeconomic indicators received the nine lesson curriculum delivered by an external facilitator with (N = 191) or without (N = 186) parental involvement, or were allocated to a usual curriculum control group (N = 178). Self-report outcome measures were anxiety, depression, weight/shape concerns, wellbeing and mindfulness.
Results: There were no differences in outcomes between any of the three groups at post-intervention, six or twelve month follow-up. Between-group effect sizes (Cohen's d) across the variables ranged from 0.002 to 0.37. A wide range of moderators were examined but none impacted outcome.
Conclusions: Further research is required to identify the optimal age, content and length of mindfulness programs for adolescents in universal prevention settings.
Keywords: Mindfulness; Adolescence; Schools; Transdiagnostic; Prevention
The Pervasive Problem With Placebos in Psychology - Why Active Control Groups Are Not Sufficient to Rule Out Placebo Effects. Walter R. Boot et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, Volume: 8 issue: 4, page(s): 445-454, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613491271
Abstract: To draw causal conclusions about the efficacy of a psychological intervention, researchers must compare the treatment condition with a control group that accounts for improvements caused by factors other than the treatment. Using an active control helps to control for the possibility that improvement by the experimental group resulted from a placebo effect. Although active control groups are superior to “no-contact” controls, only when the active control group has the same expectation of improvement as the experimental group can we attribute differential improvements to the potency of the treatment. Despite the need to match expectations between treatment and control groups, almost no psychological interventions do so. This failure to control for expectations is not a minor omission—it is a fundamental design flaw that potentially undermines any causal inference. We illustrate these principles with a detailed example from the video-game-training literature showing how the use of an active control group does not eliminate expectation differences. The problem permeates other interventions as well, including those targeting mental health, cognition, and educational achievement. Fortunately, measuring expectations and adopting alternative experimental designs makes it possible to control for placebo effects, thereby increasing confidence in the causal efficacy of psychological interventions.
Highlights
• We investigated the .b mindfulness program for a second time in early adolescents.
• We tightened adherence to the manualised curriculum.
• Parental involvement was added in one arm of the RCT design.
• We found no differences between the mindfulness groups with/without parental involvement and the control group.
• Further research is required to identify optimal age and content of school-based mindfulness programs.
Abstract
Objective: Mindfulness is being promoted in schools as a prevention program despite a current small evidence base. The aim of this research was to conduct a rigorous evaluation of the .b (“Dot be”) mindfulness curriculum, with or without parental involvement, compared to a control condition.
Method: In a randomized controlled design, students (Mage 13.44, SD 0.33; 45.4% female) across a broad range of socioeconomic indicators received the nine lesson curriculum delivered by an external facilitator with (N = 191) or without (N = 186) parental involvement, or were allocated to a usual curriculum control group (N = 178). Self-report outcome measures were anxiety, depression, weight/shape concerns, wellbeing and mindfulness.
Results: There were no differences in outcomes between any of the three groups at post-intervention, six or twelve month follow-up. Between-group effect sizes (Cohen's d) across the variables ranged from 0.002 to 0.37. A wide range of moderators were examined but none impacted outcome.
Conclusions: Further research is required to identify the optimal age, content and length of mindfulness programs for adolescents in universal prevention settings.
Keywords: Mindfulness; Adolescence; Schools; Transdiagnostic; Prevention
The Pervasive Problem With Placebos in Psychology - Why Active Control Groups Are Not Sufficient to Rule Out Placebo Effects. Walter R. Boot et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, Volume: 8 issue: 4, page(s): 445-454, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613491271
Abstract: To draw causal conclusions about the efficacy of a psychological intervention, researchers must compare the treatment condition with a control group that accounts for improvements caused by factors other than the treatment. Using an active control helps to control for the possibility that improvement by the experimental group resulted from a placebo effect. Although active control groups are superior to “no-contact” controls, only when the active control group has the same expectation of improvement as the experimental group can we attribute differential improvements to the potency of the treatment. Despite the need to match expectations between treatment and control groups, almost no psychological interventions do so. This failure to control for expectations is not a minor omission—it is a fundamental design flaw that potentially undermines any causal inference. We illustrate these principles with a detailed example from the video-game-training literature showing how the use of an active control group does not eliminate expectation differences. The problem permeates other interventions as well, including those targeting mental health, cognition, and educational achievement. Fortunately, measuring expectations and adopting alternative experimental designs makes it possible to control for placebo effects, thereby increasing confidence in the causal efficacy of psychological interventions.
Monopoly without a monopolist : An economic analysis of the bitcoin payment system
Monopoly without a monopolist : An economic analysis of the bitcoin payment system. Jacob D. Leshno, Gur Huberman, and Ciamac Moallemi. BIS Central Bank Research Hub - Series: Bank of Finland Discussion Papers. https://www.bis.org/cbhub/list/series/sid_66/index.htm
Abstract: Many crypto-currencies, Bitcoin being the most prominent, are reliable electronic payment systems that operate without a central, trusted authority. They are enabled by blockchain technology, which deploys cryptographic tools and game theoretic incentives to create a two-sided platform. Profit maximizing computer servers called miners provide the infrastructure of the system. Its users can send payments anonymously and securely. Absent a central authority to control the system, the paper seeks to understand the operation of the system: How does the system raise revenue to pay for its infrastructure? How are usage fees determined? How much infrastructure is deployed?
A simplified economic model that captures the system’s properties answers these questions. Transaction fees and infrastructure level are determined in an equilibrium of a congestion queueing game derived from the system’s limited throughput. The system eliminates dead-weight loss from monopoly, but introduces other inefficiencies and requires congestion to raise revenue and fund infrastructure. We explore the future potential of such systems and provide design suggestions.
Abstract: Many crypto-currencies, Bitcoin being the most prominent, are reliable electronic payment systems that operate without a central, trusted authority. They are enabled by blockchain technology, which deploys cryptographic tools and game theoretic incentives to create a two-sided platform. Profit maximizing computer servers called miners provide the infrastructure of the system. Its users can send payments anonymously and securely. Absent a central authority to control the system, the paper seeks to understand the operation of the system: How does the system raise revenue to pay for its infrastructure? How are usage fees determined? How much infrastructure is deployed?
A simplified economic model that captures the system’s properties answers these questions. Transaction fees and infrastructure level are determined in an equilibrium of a congestion queueing game derived from the system’s limited throughput. The system eliminates dead-weight loss from monopoly, but introduces other inefficiencies and requires congestion to raise revenue and fund infrastructure. We explore the future potential of such systems and provide design suggestions.
Sabotaging Another: Priming Competition Increases Cheating Behavior in Tournaments
Rigdon, M. L. and D'Esterre, A. (2017), Sabotaging Another: Priming Competition Increases Cheating Behavior in Tournaments. Southern Economic Journal. doi:10.1002/soej.12232
Abstract: Trophy. Goal. Dominated. Does priming individuals with competitive concepts such as these influence the temptation to cheat? We utilize a standard laboratory cheating task in a tournament setting and test whether nonconscious priming impacts the nature of cheating behavior. The results demonstrate an asymmetry in a winner-take-all setting: a competitive prime does not increase cheating to improve one's own outcome, but does significantly increase the willingness of an individual to sabotage a competitor.
Abstract: Trophy. Goal. Dominated. Does priming individuals with competitive concepts such as these influence the temptation to cheat? We utilize a standard laboratory cheating task in a tournament setting and test whether nonconscious priming impacts the nature of cheating behavior. The results demonstrate an asymmetry in a winner-take-all setting: a competitive prime does not increase cheating to improve one's own outcome, but does significantly increase the willingness of an individual to sabotage a competitor.
Decreased Brain pH as a Shared Endophenotype of Psychiatric Disorders
Decreased Brain pH as a Shared Endophenotype of Psychiatric Disorders. Hideo Hagihara et al. Neuropsychopharmacology, Sept 06 2017; doi: 10.1038/npp.2017.167
Abstract: Although the brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder exhibit decreased brain pH relative to those of healthy controls upon postmortem examination, it remains controversial whether this finding reflects a primary feature of the diseases or is a result of confounding factors such as medication and agonal state. To date, systematic investigation of brain pH has not been undertaken using animal models that can be studied without confounds inherent in human studies. In the present study, we first reevaluated the pH of the postmortem brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder by conducting a meta-analysis of existing data sets from 10 studies. We then measured pH, lactate levels, and related metabolite levels in brain homogenates from five neurodevelopmental mouse models of psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and autism spectrum disorder. All mice were drug naive with the same agonal state, postmortem interval, and age within each strain. Our meta-analysis revealed that brain pH was significantly lower in patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder than in control participants, even when a few potential confounding factors (postmortem interval, age, and history of antipsychotic use) were considered. In animal experiments, we observed significantly lower pH and higher lactate levels in the brains of model mice relative to controls, as well as a significant negative correlation between pH and lactate levels. Our findings suggest that lower pH associated with increased lactate levels is not a mere artifact, but rather implicated in the underlying pathophysiology of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.
Abstract: Although the brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder exhibit decreased brain pH relative to those of healthy controls upon postmortem examination, it remains controversial whether this finding reflects a primary feature of the diseases or is a result of confounding factors such as medication and agonal state. To date, systematic investigation of brain pH has not been undertaken using animal models that can be studied without confounds inherent in human studies. In the present study, we first reevaluated the pH of the postmortem brains of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder by conducting a meta-analysis of existing data sets from 10 studies. We then measured pH, lactate levels, and related metabolite levels in brain homogenates from five neurodevelopmental mouse models of psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and autism spectrum disorder. All mice were drug naive with the same agonal state, postmortem interval, and age within each strain. Our meta-analysis revealed that brain pH was significantly lower in patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder than in control participants, even when a few potential confounding factors (postmortem interval, age, and history of antipsychotic use) were considered. In animal experiments, we observed significantly lower pH and higher lactate levels in the brains of model mice relative to controls, as well as a significant negative correlation between pH and lactate levels. Our findings suggest that lower pH associated with increased lactate levels is not a mere artifact, but rather implicated in the underlying pathophysiology of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.
The Impact of Price Controls: Evidence from US Debit Card Interchange Fee Regulation
The Impact of Price Controls in Two-Sided Markets: Evidence from US Debit Card Interchange Fee Regulation. Mark Manuszak and Krzysztof Wozniak. Federal Reserve Working Paper, July 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.074
Abstract: We study the pricing of deposit accounts following a regulation that capped debit card interchange fees in the United States and provide the first empirical investigation of the link between interchange fees and granular deposit account prices. This link is broadly predicted by the theoretical literature on two-sided markets, but the nature and magnitude of price changes are key empirical issues. To examine the ways that banks adjusted their account prices in response to the regulatory cap on interchange fees, we exploit the cap's differential applicability across banks and account types, while accounting for equilibrium spillover effects on banks exempt from the cap. Our results show that banks subject to the cap raised checking account prices by decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements, with different adjustment across account types. We also find that banks exempt from the cap adjusted prices as a competitive response to price changes made by regulated banks. Not accounting for such competitive responses underestimates the policy's impact on the market, for both banks subject to the cap and those exempt from it.
Keywords: Equilibrium effects, Financial supervision and regulation, Interchange fees, Retail banking and debit cards, Two-sided markets
JEL Classification: G21, G28, L51
My comment: Knowing the lawmaker that, if he reduces profits in some areas of work (in this case, capping most debit card fees), the profits must be reaped in another area of work (decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements), why do the legislator make these interventions? To the politician, 1 it is a way to be seen doing something to fight fees that the customers (and family members in Thanksgiving dinner) resent; 2 has almost no costs for him.
Abstract: We study the pricing of deposit accounts following a regulation that capped debit card interchange fees in the United States and provide the first empirical investigation of the link between interchange fees and granular deposit account prices. This link is broadly predicted by the theoretical literature on two-sided markets, but the nature and magnitude of price changes are key empirical issues. To examine the ways that banks adjusted their account prices in response to the regulatory cap on interchange fees, we exploit the cap's differential applicability across banks and account types, while accounting for equilibrium spillover effects on banks exempt from the cap. Our results show that banks subject to the cap raised checking account prices by decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements, with different adjustment across account types. We also find that banks exempt from the cap adjusted prices as a competitive response to price changes made by regulated banks. Not accounting for such competitive responses underestimates the policy's impact on the market, for both banks subject to the cap and those exempt from it.
Keywords: Equilibrium effects, Financial supervision and regulation, Interchange fees, Retail banking and debit cards, Two-sided markets
JEL Classification: G21, G28, L51
My comment: Knowing the lawmaker that, if he reduces profits in some areas of work (in this case, capping most debit card fees), the profits must be reaped in another area of work (decreasing the availability of free accounts, raising monthly fees, and increasing minimum balance requirements), why do the legislator make these interventions? To the politician, 1 it is a way to be seen doing something to fight fees that the customers (and family members in Thanksgiving dinner) resent; 2 has almost no costs for him.
Beliefs about obedience levels in studies conducted within the Milgram paradigm
Beliefs about obedience levels in studies conducted within the Milgram paradigm; Better than average effect and comparisons of typical behaviours by residents of various nations. Tomasz Grzyb and Dariusz Dolinski. Front. Psychol., doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01632
Abstract: The article presents studies examining whether the better-than-average effect (BTA) appears in opinions regarding obedience of individuals participating in an experiment conducted in the Milgram paradigm. Participants are presented with a detailed description of the experiment, asked to declare at what moment an average participant would cease their participation in the study, and then asked to declare at what moment they themselves would quit the experiment. It turned out that the participants demonstrated a strong BTA effect. This effect also concerned those who had known the results of the Milgram experiment prior to the study.
Interestingly, those individuals – in contrast to naive participants – judged that the average person would remain obedient for longer, but at the same time prior familiarity with the Milgram experiment did not impact convictions as to own obedience. By the same token, the BTA effect size was larger among those who had previously heard of the Milgram experiment than those who had not. Additionally, study participants were asked to estimate the behaviour of the average resident of their country (Poland), as well as of average residents of several other European countries. It turned out that in participants’ judgement the average Pole would withdraw from the experiment quicker than the average Russian and average German, but later than average residents of France and England.
My comment: people believe they would quit the Milgram experiment sooner than others.
Abstract: The article presents studies examining whether the better-than-average effect (BTA) appears in opinions regarding obedience of individuals participating in an experiment conducted in the Milgram paradigm. Participants are presented with a detailed description of the experiment, asked to declare at what moment an average participant would cease their participation in the study, and then asked to declare at what moment they themselves would quit the experiment. It turned out that the participants demonstrated a strong BTA effect. This effect also concerned those who had known the results of the Milgram experiment prior to the study.
Interestingly, those individuals – in contrast to naive participants – judged that the average person would remain obedient for longer, but at the same time prior familiarity with the Milgram experiment did not impact convictions as to own obedience. By the same token, the BTA effect size was larger among those who had previously heard of the Milgram experiment than those who had not. Additionally, study participants were asked to estimate the behaviour of the average resident of their country (Poland), as well as of average residents of several other European countries. It turned out that in participants’ judgement the average Pole would withdraw from the experiment quicker than the average Russian and average German, but later than average residents of France and England.
My comment: people believe they would quit the Milgram experiment sooner than others.
Self-reflection Orients Visual Attention Downward
Self-reflection Orients Visual Attention Downward. Yi Liu, Yu Tong and Hong Li. Front. Psychol., Sept 05 2017, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01506
Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated abstract concepts associated with spatial location (e.g., God in the Heavens) could direct visual attention upward or downward, because thinking about the abstract concepts activates the corresponding vertical perceptual symbols. For self-concept, there are similar metaphors (e.g., “I am above others”). However, whether thinking about the self can induce visual attention orientation is still unknown. Therefore, the current study tested whether self-reflection can direct visual attention. Individuals often display the tendency of self-enhancement in social comparison, which reminds the individual of the higher position one possesses relative to others within the social environment. As the individual is the agent of the attention orientation, and high status tends to make an individual look down upon others to obtain a sense of pride, it was hypothesized that thinking about the self would lead to a downward attention orientation. Using reflection of personality traits and a target discrimination task, Study 1 found that, after self-reflection, visual attention was directed downward. Similar effects were also found after friend-reflection, with the level of downward attention being correlated with the likability rating scores of the friend. Thus, in Study 2, a disliked other was used as a control and the positive self-view was measured with above-average judgment task. We found downward attention orientation after self-reflection, but not after reflection upon the disliked other. Moreover, the attentional bias after self-reflection was correlated with above-average self-view. The current findings provide the first evidence that thinking about the self could direct visual-spatial attention downward, and suggest that this effect is probably derived from a positive self-view within the social context.
Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated abstract concepts associated with spatial location (e.g., God in the Heavens) could direct visual attention upward or downward, because thinking about the abstract concepts activates the corresponding vertical perceptual symbols. For self-concept, there are similar metaphors (e.g., “I am above others”). However, whether thinking about the self can induce visual attention orientation is still unknown. Therefore, the current study tested whether self-reflection can direct visual attention. Individuals often display the tendency of self-enhancement in social comparison, which reminds the individual of the higher position one possesses relative to others within the social environment. As the individual is the agent of the attention orientation, and high status tends to make an individual look down upon others to obtain a sense of pride, it was hypothesized that thinking about the self would lead to a downward attention orientation. Using reflection of personality traits and a target discrimination task, Study 1 found that, after self-reflection, visual attention was directed downward. Similar effects were also found after friend-reflection, with the level of downward attention being correlated with the likability rating scores of the friend. Thus, in Study 2, a disliked other was used as a control and the positive self-view was measured with above-average judgment task. We found downward attention orientation after self-reflection, but not after reflection upon the disliked other. Moreover, the attentional bias after self-reflection was correlated with above-average self-view. The current findings provide the first evidence that thinking about the self could direct visual-spatial attention downward, and suggest that this effect is probably derived from a positive self-view within the social context.
Great Ape Social Attention
Great Ape Social Attention. Fumihiro Kano and Josep Call. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 187-206, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-4-431-56559-8_9
Abstract: Recent advances in infrared eye-tracking technology have allowed researchers to examine social attention in great apes in great detail. In this chapter we summarize our recent findings in this area. Great apes, like humans, exhibit spontaneous interest in naturalistic pictures and movies and selectively attend to socially significant elements such as faces, eyes, mouth, and the targets of others’ actions. Additionally, they follow the gaze direction of others and make anticipatory looks to the targets of others’ actions; the expression of these behaviors is adjusted flexibly according to the social contexts, and the viewers’ memories and understandings of others’ goals and intentions. Our studies have also revealed systematic species differences in attention to eyes and gaze following, particularly between bonobos and chimpanzees; several lines of evidence suggest that neural and physiological mechanisms underlying gaze perception, which are related to the individual differences within the human species, are also related to the species differences between bonobos and chimpanzees. Overall, our studies suggest that cognitive, emotional and physiological underpinnings of social attention are well conserved among great apes and humans.
Keywords: Action anticipation, Anticipatory look, Eye contact, Eye movement, Eye tracking, Gaze following, Great ape, Memory
Abstract: Recent advances in infrared eye-tracking technology have allowed researchers to examine social attention in great apes in great detail. In this chapter we summarize our recent findings in this area. Great apes, like humans, exhibit spontaneous interest in naturalistic pictures and movies and selectively attend to socially significant elements such as faces, eyes, mouth, and the targets of others’ actions. Additionally, they follow the gaze direction of others and make anticipatory looks to the targets of others’ actions; the expression of these behaviors is adjusted flexibly according to the social contexts, and the viewers’ memories and understandings of others’ goals and intentions. Our studies have also revealed systematic species differences in attention to eyes and gaze following, particularly between bonobos and chimpanzees; several lines of evidence suggest that neural and physiological mechanisms underlying gaze perception, which are related to the individual differences within the human species, are also related to the species differences between bonobos and chimpanzees. Overall, our studies suggest that cognitive, emotional and physiological underpinnings of social attention are well conserved among great apes and humans.
Keywords: Action anticipation, Anticipatory look, Eye contact, Eye movement, Eye tracking, Gaze following, Great ape, Memory
Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion
Evolutionary Origin of Empathy and Inequality Aversion. Shigeru Watanabe and Yutaka Kosaki. Evolution of the Brain, Cognition, and Emotion in Vertebrates pp 273-299, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-4-431-56559-8_13
Abstract: An important function of emotion is to enable individuals to adapt to the environment through induction of physiological and behavioral responses directly toward, or in anticipation of, biologically significant events such as food and predators. Another important function is to provide a social signal for other individuals in the group. This emotional signal often induces the same emotional state in the observer, a process called emotional contagion, which serves as a surrogate for others to learn through observation and provide cues to take actions in pro-social ways or, on occasions, in Machiavellian ways. Empathy, a term used to encompass these various social functions of emotion, is thus crucial for the survival of many species of animals including humans. In this chapter, we review literature concerning experimental studies of empathy in the laboratory animals, mostly rodents, which could provide a clue to understand the evolutionary origin of empathy. We first review basic findings concerning emotional contagion and introduce recent studies that examined the importance of social comparison in automatic empathetic responses, which indicate that the nonstandard forms of empathy such as envy, schadenfreude, as well as inequity aversion, may exist in rodents. We then discuss the functional significance of empathy by reviewing literature on observational learning and helping behavior. We then offer mechanistic analyses of empathy on the basis of the principles of associative learning. Finally, we discuss the evolutionary origin of social comparison.
Keywords: Emotional contagion Social comparison Envy Schadenfreude Pro-social behavior Associative learning Sexual selection
Abstract: An important function of emotion is to enable individuals to adapt to the environment through induction of physiological and behavioral responses directly toward, or in anticipation of, biologically significant events such as food and predators. Another important function is to provide a social signal for other individuals in the group. This emotional signal often induces the same emotional state in the observer, a process called emotional contagion, which serves as a surrogate for others to learn through observation and provide cues to take actions in pro-social ways or, on occasions, in Machiavellian ways. Empathy, a term used to encompass these various social functions of emotion, is thus crucial for the survival of many species of animals including humans. In this chapter, we review literature concerning experimental studies of empathy in the laboratory animals, mostly rodents, which could provide a clue to understand the evolutionary origin of empathy. We first review basic findings concerning emotional contagion and introduce recent studies that examined the importance of social comparison in automatic empathetic responses, which indicate that the nonstandard forms of empathy such as envy, schadenfreude, as well as inequity aversion, may exist in rodents. We then discuss the functional significance of empathy by reviewing literature on observational learning and helping behavior. We then offer mechanistic analyses of empathy on the basis of the principles of associative learning. Finally, we discuss the evolutionary origin of social comparison.
Keywords: Emotional contagion Social comparison Envy Schadenfreude Pro-social behavior Associative learning Sexual selection
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
The effect of taste and label on the liking of cola drinks by school children: Taste did not have any significant effect
Bartneck, Christoph, and Hanna Bartneck. 2017. “Interaction of Brand and Taste in the Liking of Cola Drinks by School Children”. PsyArXiv. August 21. https://psyarxiv.com/fzjwv
Abstract: Sugar sweetened soft drinks play an important role in obesity and world wide brands, such as Coca Cola, spend considerable resources on branding and advertising. As a result, their soft drinks tend to be up to 2.5 times more expensive than store brand cola drinks. We investigated the effect that the taste and the label has on the liking of cola drinks by school children. Taste did not have any significant effect and there was a significant interaction effect between the label and the taste. The children preferred cola drinks with their correct labels. A familiar brand with a familiar taste is liked more and the Coca-Cola company with its large advertising campaign and market share take advantage of this effect.
My comment: Are you sure of any important role of sodas in obesity?
Abstract: Sugar sweetened soft drinks play an important role in obesity and world wide brands, such as Coca Cola, spend considerable resources on branding and advertising. As a result, their soft drinks tend to be up to 2.5 times more expensive than store brand cola drinks. We investigated the effect that the taste and the label has on the liking of cola drinks by school children. Taste did not have any significant effect and there was a significant interaction effect between the label and the taste. The children preferred cola drinks with their correct labels. A familiar brand with a familiar taste is liked more and the Coca-Cola company with its large advertising campaign and market share take advantage of this effect.
My comment: Are you sure of any important role of sodas in obesity?
Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics
Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114 no. 36, pp 9587–9592, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704882114
Significance: Public opinion toward some science and technology issues is polarized along religious and political lines. We investigate whether people with more education and greater science knowledge tend to express beliefs that are more (or less) polarized. Using data from the nationally representative General Social Survey, we find that more knowledgeable individuals are more likely to express beliefs consistent with their religious or political identities for issues that have become polarized along those lines (e.g., stem cell research, human evolution), but not for issues that are controversial on other grounds (e.g., genetically modified foods). These patterns suggest that scientific knowledge may facilitate defending positions motivated by nonscientific concerns.
Abstract: Although Americans generally hold science in high regard and respect its findings, for some contested issues, such as the existence of anthropogenic climate change, public opinion is polarized along religious and political lines. We ask whether individuals with more general education and greater science knowledge, measured in terms of science education and science literacy, display more (or less) polarized beliefs on several such issues. We report secondary analyses of a nationally representative dataset (the General Social Survey), examining the predictors of beliefs regarding six potentially controversial issues. We find that beliefs are correlated with both political and religious identity for stem cell research, the Big Bang, and human evolution, and with political identity alone on climate change. Individuals with greater education, science education, and science literacy display more polarized beliefs on these issues. We find little evidence of political or religious polarization regarding nanotechnology and genetically modified foods. On all six topics, people who trust the scientific enterprise more are also more likely to accept its findings. We discuss the causal mechanisms that might underlie the correlation between education and identity-based polarization.
Keywords: science, literacy, polarization, science communication, science education, trust
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More at "The tribal nature of the human mind leads people to value party dogma over truth; those with political sophistication, science literacy, numeracy abilities, and cognitive reflection are more affected" http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html
Significance: Public opinion toward some science and technology issues is polarized along religious and political lines. We investigate whether people with more education and greater science knowledge tend to express beliefs that are more (or less) polarized. Using data from the nationally representative General Social Survey, we find that more knowledgeable individuals are more likely to express beliefs consistent with their religious or political identities for issues that have become polarized along those lines (e.g., stem cell research, human evolution), but not for issues that are controversial on other grounds (e.g., genetically modified foods). These patterns suggest that scientific knowledge may facilitate defending positions motivated by nonscientific concerns.
Abstract: Although Americans generally hold science in high regard and respect its findings, for some contested issues, such as the existence of anthropogenic climate change, public opinion is polarized along religious and political lines. We ask whether individuals with more general education and greater science knowledge, measured in terms of science education and science literacy, display more (or less) polarized beliefs on several such issues. We report secondary analyses of a nationally representative dataset (the General Social Survey), examining the predictors of beliefs regarding six potentially controversial issues. We find that beliefs are correlated with both political and religious identity for stem cell research, the Big Bang, and human evolution, and with political identity alone on climate change. Individuals with greater education, science education, and science literacy display more polarized beliefs on these issues. We find little evidence of political or religious polarization regarding nanotechnology and genetically modified foods. On all six topics, people who trust the scientific enterprise more are also more likely to accept its findings. We discuss the causal mechanisms that might underlie the correlation between education and identity-based polarization.
Keywords: science, literacy, polarization, science communication, science education, trust
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More at "The tribal nature of the human mind leads people to value party dogma over truth; those with political sophistication, science literacy, numeracy abilities, and cognitive reflection are more affected" http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html
Seeing faces: The role of brand visual processing and social connection in brand liking
Seeing faces: The role of brand visual processing and social connection in brand liking. Ulrich Orth et al. European Journal of Social Psychology, April 2017, Pages 348–361, doi 10.1002/ejsp.2245
Abstract: This paper investigates how brands — through visuals — can fill a void for consumers experiencing a lack of social connection. Using psychometric measures and mock advertisements with visuals of human faces and non-faces, Study 1 shows that seeing faces relates to greater brand liking with processing fluency mediating, and individual loneliness and tendency to anthropomorphize moderating the effect. Study 2 replicates findings with other-race faces corroborating that fluency but not ethnic self-referencing underlies the effect. Study 3 complements the psychometric measures of Studies 1 and 2 with eye tracking data to demonstrate that fluency correlates with distinct patterns of attention. Study 4 uses actual brand stimuli to show that effects are robust and extend beyond advertisements. Taken together, the findings show that communicating brand names in conjunction with visuals seen by consumers as human faces can increase brand liking.
Abstract: This paper investigates how brands — through visuals — can fill a void for consumers experiencing a lack of social connection. Using psychometric measures and mock advertisements with visuals of human faces and non-faces, Study 1 shows that seeing faces relates to greater brand liking with processing fluency mediating, and individual loneliness and tendency to anthropomorphize moderating the effect. Study 2 replicates findings with other-race faces corroborating that fluency but not ethnic self-referencing underlies the effect. Study 3 complements the psychometric measures of Studies 1 and 2 with eye tracking data to demonstrate that fluency correlates with distinct patterns of attention. Study 4 uses actual brand stimuli to show that effects are robust and extend beyond advertisements. Taken together, the findings show that communicating brand names in conjunction with visuals seen by consumers as human faces can increase brand liking.
Consumers perceive that a product made by mistake is more improbable, and thus, more unique than an intentional one
Made by Mistake: When Mistakes Increase Product Preference. Taly Reich, Daniella Kupor and Rosanna Smith. Journal of Consumer Research, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucx089
Abstract: Significant literature has demonstrated that mistakes are undesirable and often result in negative inferences about the person or company that made the mistake. Consequently, individuals and companies tend to avoid sharing information about their mistakes with others. However, we find that consumers actually prefer products that were made by mistake to otherwise identical products that were made intentionally. This preference arises because consumers perceive that a product made by mistake is more improbable relative to a product made intentionally, and thus, view the product as more unique. We find converging evidence for this preference in a field study, six experiments, and eBay auction sales. Importantly, this preference holds regardless of whether the mistake enhances or detracts from the product. However, in domains where consumers do not value uniqueness (e.g., utilitarian goods), the preference is eliminated.
Abstract: Significant literature has demonstrated that mistakes are undesirable and often result in negative inferences about the person or company that made the mistake. Consequently, individuals and companies tend to avoid sharing information about their mistakes with others. However, we find that consumers actually prefer products that were made by mistake to otherwise identical products that were made intentionally. This preference arises because consumers perceive that a product made by mistake is more improbable relative to a product made intentionally, and thus, view the product as more unique. We find converging evidence for this preference in a field study, six experiments, and eBay auction sales. Importantly, this preference holds regardless of whether the mistake enhances or detracts from the product. However, in domains where consumers do not value uniqueness (e.g., utilitarian goods), the preference is eliminated.
Hidden Cost of Insurance on Cooperation: the presumed safeguard against the risk of betrayal may increase the probability of betrayal
van de Calseyde, P. P. F. M., Keren, G., and Zeelenberg, M. (2017) The Hidden Cost of Insurance on Cooperation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2033.
Abstract: A common solution to mitigate risk is to buy insurance. Employing the trust game, we find that buying insurance against the risk of betrayal has a hidden cost: trustees are more likely to act opportunistically when trustors choose to be insured against the breach of trust. Supposedly, trustees are less likely to cooperate when trustors buy insurance because choosing insurance implicitly signals that the trustor expects the trustee to behave opportunistically, paradoxically encouraging trustees not to cooperate. These results shed new light on the potential drawbacks of financial safeguards that are intended to minimize the risky nature of trust taking: the presumed safeguard against the risk of betrayal may, under certain circumstances, increase the probability of betrayal.
Abstract: A common solution to mitigate risk is to buy insurance. Employing the trust game, we find that buying insurance against the risk of betrayal has a hidden cost: trustees are more likely to act opportunistically when trustors choose to be insured against the breach of trust. Supposedly, trustees are less likely to cooperate when trustors buy insurance because choosing insurance implicitly signals that the trustor expects the trustee to behave opportunistically, paradoxically encouraging trustees not to cooperate. These results shed new light on the potential drawbacks of financial safeguards that are intended to minimize the risky nature of trust taking: the presumed safeguard against the risk of betrayal may, under certain circumstances, increase the probability of betrayal.
Still an Agenda Setter: Traditional News Media and Public Opinion During the Transition From Low to High Choice Media Environments
Djerf-Pierre, M. and Shehata, A. (2017), Still an Agenda Setter: Traditional News Media and Public Opinion During the Transition From Low to High Choice Media Environments. J Commun. doi:10.1111/jcom.12327
Abstract: This study analyzes whether the agenda-setting influence of traditional news media has become weaker over time—a key argument in the “new era of minimal effects” controversy. Based on media content and public opinion data collected in Sweden over a period of 23 years (1992–2014), we analyze both aggregate and individual-level agenda-setting effects on public opinion concerning 12 different political issues. Taken together, ***we find very little evidence that the traditional news media has become less influential as agenda setters. Rather, citizens appear as responsive to issue signals from the collective media agenda today as during the low-choice era***. We discuss these findings in terms of cross-national differences in media systems and opportunity structures for selective exposure.
Abstract: This study analyzes whether the agenda-setting influence of traditional news media has become weaker over time—a key argument in the “new era of minimal effects” controversy. Based on media content and public opinion data collected in Sweden over a period of 23 years (1992–2014), we analyze both aggregate and individual-level agenda-setting effects on public opinion concerning 12 different political issues. Taken together, ***we find very little evidence that the traditional news media has become less influential as agenda setters. Rather, citizens appear as responsive to issue signals from the collective media agenda today as during the low-choice era***. We discuss these findings in terms of cross-national differences in media systems and opportunity structures for selective exposure.
Women are more compassionate than men, but that does not explain the gender gap in partisanship
Blinder, S. and Rolfe, M. (2017), Rethinking Compassion: Toward a Political Account of the Partisan Gender Gap in the United States. Political Psychology. doi:10.1111/pops.12447
Abstract: Scholarship on the political gender gap in the United States has attributed women's political views to their greater compassion, yet individual-level measures of compassion have almost never been used to directly examine such claims. We address this issue using the only nationally representative survey to include psychometrically validated measures of compassion alongside appropriate political variables. We show that ***even though women are more compassionate in the aggregate than men in some respects, this added compassion does not explain the gender gap in partisanship***. Female respondents report having more tender feelings towards the less fortunate, but these empathetic feelings are not associated with partisan identity. Women also show a slightly greater commitment to a principle of care, but this principle accounts for little of the partisan gap between men and women and has no significant relationship with partisanship after accounting for gender differences in egalitarian political values.
Abstract: Scholarship on the political gender gap in the United States has attributed women's political views to their greater compassion, yet individual-level measures of compassion have almost never been used to directly examine such claims. We address this issue using the only nationally representative survey to include psychometrically validated measures of compassion alongside appropriate political variables. We show that ***even though women are more compassionate in the aggregate than men in some respects, this added compassion does not explain the gender gap in partisanship***. Female respondents report having more tender feelings towards the less fortunate, but these empathetic feelings are not associated with partisan identity. Women also show a slightly greater commitment to a principle of care, but this principle accounts for little of the partisan gap between men and women and has no significant relationship with partisanship after accounting for gender differences in egalitarian political values.
How Dodd-Frank Doubles Down on 'Too Big to Fail'
Two major flaws mean that the act doesn't address problems that led to the financial crisis of 2008.
By Charles W. Calomiris And Allan H. Meltzer
Feb. 12, 2014 6:44 p.m. ET
The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in 2010, mandated hundreds of major regulations to control bank risk-taking, with the aim of preventing a repeat of the taxpayer bailouts of "too big to fail" financial institutions. These regulations are on top of many rules adopted after the 2008 financial crisis to make banks more secure. Yet at a Senate hearing in January, Elizabeth Warren asked a bipartisan panel of four economists (including Allan Meltzer ) whether the Dodd-Frank Act would end the problem of too-big-to-fail banks. Every one answered no.
Dodd-Frank's approach to regulating bank risk has two major flaws. First, its standards and rules require regulatory enforcement instead of giving bankers strong incentives to maintain safety and soundness of their own institutions. Second, the regulatory framework attempts to prevent any individual bank from failing, instead of preventing the collapse of the payments and credit systems.
The principal danger to the banking system arises when fear and uncertainty about the value of bank assets induces the widespread refusal by banks to accept each other's short-term debts. Such refusals can lead to a collapse of the interbank payments system, a dramatic contraction of bank credit, and a general loss in confidence by consumers and businesses—all of which can have dire economic consequences. The proper goal is thus to make the banking system sufficiently resilient so that no single failure can result in a general collapse.
Part of the current confusion over regulatory means and ends reflects a mistaken understanding of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The collapse of interbank credit in September 2008 was not the automatic consequence of Lehman's failure.
Rather, it resulted from a widespread market perception that many large banks were at significant risk of failing. This perception didn't develop overnight. It had evolved steadily and visibly over more than two years, while regulators and politicians did nothing.
Citigroup's equity-to-assets ratio, measured in market value—the best single comprehensive measure of a bank's financial strength—fell steadily from about 13% in April 2006 to about 3% by September 2008. And that low value reflected an even lower perception of fundamental asset worth, because the 3% market value included the value of an expected bailout. Lehman's collapse was simply the match in the tinder box. If other banks had been sufficiently safe and sound at the time of Lehman's demise, then the financial system would not have been brought to its knees by a single failure.
To ensure systemwide resiliency, most of Dodd-Frank's regulations should be replaced by measures requiring large, systemically important banks to increase their capacity to deal with losses. The first step would be to substantially raise the minimum ratio of the book value of their equity relative to the book value of their assets.
The Brown-Vitter bill now before Congress (the Terminating Bailouts for Taxpayer Fairness Act) would raise that minimum ratio to 15%, roughly a threefold increase from current levels. Although reasonable people can disagree about the optimal minimum ratio—one could argue that a 10% ratio would be adequate in the presence of additional safeguards—15% is not an arbitrary number.
At the onset of the Great Depression, large New York City banks all maintained more than 15% of their assets in equity, and none of them succumbed to the worst banking system shocks in U.S. history from 1929 to 1932. The losses suffered by major banks in the recent crisis would not have wiped out their equity if it had been equal to 15% of their assets.
Bankers and their supervisors often find it mutually convenient to understate expected loan losses and thereby overstate equity values. The problem is magnified when equity requirements are expressed relative to "risk-weighted assets," allowing regulators to permit banks' models to underestimate their risks.
This is not a hypothetical issue. In December 2008, when Citi was effectively insolvent, and the market's valuation of its equity correctly reflected that fact, the bank's accounts showed a risk-based capital ratio of 11.8% and a risk-based Tier 1 capital ratio (meant to include only high-quality, equity-like capital) of about 7%. Moreover, factors such as a drop in bank fee income can affect the actual value of a bank's equity, regardless of the riskiness of its loans.
For these reasons, large banks' book equity requirements need to be buttressed by other measures. One is a minimum requirement that banks maintain cash reserves (New York City banks during the Depression maintained cash reserves in excess of 25%). Cash held at the central bank provides protection against default risk similar to equity capital, but it has the advantage of being observable and incapable of being fudged by esoteric risk-modeling.
Several researchers have suggested a variety of ways to supplement simple equity and cash requirements with creative contractual devices that would give bankers strong incentives to make sure that they maintain adequate capital. In the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (2013), Charles Calomiris and Richard Herring propose debt that converts to equity whenever the market value ratio of a bank's equity is below 9% for more than 90 days. Since the conversion would significantly dilute the value of the stock held by pre-existing shareholders, a bank CEO will have a big incentive to avoid it.
There is plenty of room to debate the details, but the essential reform is to place responsibility for absorbing a bank's losses on banks and their owners. Dodd-Frank institutionalizes too-big-to-fail protection by explicitly permitting bailouts via a "resolution authority" provision at the discretion of government authorities, financed by taxes on surviving banks—and by taxpayers should these bank taxes be insufficient. That provision should be repealed and replaced by clear rules that can't be gamed by bank managers.
Mr. Calomiris is the co-author (with Stephen Haber ) of "Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit" (Princeton, 2014). Mr. Meltzer is the author of "Why Capitalism?" (Oxford, 2012). They co-direct (with Kenneth Scott ) the new program on Regulation and the Rule of Law at the Hoover Institution.
Two major flaws mean that the act doesn't address problems that led to the financial crisis of 2008.
By Charles W. Calomiris And Allan H. Meltzer
Feb. 12, 2014 6:44 p.m. ET
The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in 2010, mandated hundreds of major regulations to control bank risk-taking, with the aim of preventing a repeat of the taxpayer bailouts of "too big to fail" financial institutions. These regulations are on top of many rules adopted after the 2008 financial crisis to make banks more secure. Yet at a Senate hearing in January, Elizabeth Warren asked a bipartisan panel of four economists (including Allan Meltzer ) whether the Dodd-Frank Act would end the problem of too-big-to-fail banks. Every one answered no.
Dodd-Frank's approach to regulating bank risk has two major flaws. First, its standards and rules require regulatory enforcement instead of giving bankers strong incentives to maintain safety and soundness of their own institutions. Second, the regulatory framework attempts to prevent any individual bank from failing, instead of preventing the collapse of the payments and credit systems.
The principal danger to the banking system arises when fear and uncertainty about the value of bank assets induces the widespread refusal by banks to accept each other's short-term debts. Such refusals can lead to a collapse of the interbank payments system, a dramatic contraction of bank credit, and a general loss in confidence by consumers and businesses—all of which can have dire economic consequences. The proper goal is thus to make the banking system sufficiently resilient so that no single failure can result in a general collapse.
Part of the current confusion over regulatory means and ends reflects a mistaken understanding of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The collapse of interbank credit in September 2008 was not the automatic consequence of Lehman's failure.
Rather, it resulted from a widespread market perception that many large banks were at significant risk of failing. This perception didn't develop overnight. It had evolved steadily and visibly over more than two years, while regulators and politicians did nothing.
Citigroup's equity-to-assets ratio, measured in market value—the best single comprehensive measure of a bank's financial strength—fell steadily from about 13% in April 2006 to about 3% by September 2008. And that low value reflected an even lower perception of fundamental asset worth, because the 3% market value included the value of an expected bailout. Lehman's collapse was simply the match in the tinder box. If other banks had been sufficiently safe and sound at the time of Lehman's demise, then the financial system would not have been brought to its knees by a single failure.
To ensure systemwide resiliency, most of Dodd-Frank's regulations should be replaced by measures requiring large, systemically important banks to increase their capacity to deal with losses. The first step would be to substantially raise the minimum ratio of the book value of their equity relative to the book value of their assets.
The Brown-Vitter bill now before Congress (the Terminating Bailouts for Taxpayer Fairness Act) would raise that minimum ratio to 15%, roughly a threefold increase from current levels. Although reasonable people can disagree about the optimal minimum ratio—one could argue that a 10% ratio would be adequate in the presence of additional safeguards—15% is not an arbitrary number.
At the onset of the Great Depression, large New York City banks all maintained more than 15% of their assets in equity, and none of them succumbed to the worst banking system shocks in U.S. history from 1929 to 1932. The losses suffered by major banks in the recent crisis would not have wiped out their equity if it had been equal to 15% of their assets.
Bankers and their supervisors often find it mutually convenient to understate expected loan losses and thereby overstate equity values. The problem is magnified when equity requirements are expressed relative to "risk-weighted assets," allowing regulators to permit banks' models to underestimate their risks.
This is not a hypothetical issue. In December 2008, when Citi was effectively insolvent, and the market's valuation of its equity correctly reflected that fact, the bank's accounts showed a risk-based capital ratio of 11.8% and a risk-based Tier 1 capital ratio (meant to include only high-quality, equity-like capital) of about 7%. Moreover, factors such as a drop in bank fee income can affect the actual value of a bank's equity, regardless of the riskiness of its loans.
For these reasons, large banks' book equity requirements need to be buttressed by other measures. One is a minimum requirement that banks maintain cash reserves (New York City banks during the Depression maintained cash reserves in excess of 25%). Cash held at the central bank provides protection against default risk similar to equity capital, but it has the advantage of being observable and incapable of being fudged by esoteric risk-modeling.
Several researchers have suggested a variety of ways to supplement simple equity and cash requirements with creative contractual devices that would give bankers strong incentives to make sure that they maintain adequate capital. In the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (2013), Charles Calomiris and Richard Herring propose debt that converts to equity whenever the market value ratio of a bank's equity is below 9% for more than 90 days. Since the conversion would significantly dilute the value of the stock held by pre-existing shareholders, a bank CEO will have a big incentive to avoid it.
There is plenty of room to debate the details, but the essential reform is to place responsibility for absorbing a bank's losses on banks and their owners. Dodd-Frank institutionalizes too-big-to-fail protection by explicitly permitting bailouts via a "resolution authority" provision at the discretion of government authorities, financed by taxes on surviving banks—and by taxpayers should these bank taxes be insufficient. That provision should be repealed and replaced by clear rules that can't be gamed by bank managers.
Mr. Calomiris is the co-author (with Stephen Haber ) of "Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit" (Princeton, 2014). Mr. Meltzer is the author of "Why Capitalism?" (Oxford, 2012). They co-direct (with Kenneth Scott ) the new program on Regulation and the Rule of Law at the Hoover Institution.
Meritocracy Not Racial Discrimination Explains the Racial Income Gap: An Analysis of NLSY 1979
Kirkegaard, Emil O W. 2017. “Meritocracy Not Racial Discrimination Explains the Racial Income Gap: An Analysis of NLSY 1979”. PsyArXiv. September 5. https://psyarxiv.com/qty3n
Abstract: Socially defined racial groups usually differ in average incomes, though the causes of this are contested. Here the NLSY1979 (National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, n > 11k) was analyzed to examine the relative importance of cognitive ability, market-irrelevant racial discrimination and cultural self-identification for predicting long term income (average of 25 years). The use of both self- and other-perceived racial group plausibly allows one to distinguish between effects related to how others perceive one’s racial group vs. how individuals perceive themselves. Results indicated that other-perceived Black and Hispanic racial status was associated with either no difference or slightly higher incomes when cognitive ability was controlled for (betas 0.15 and 0.11, respectively), whereas self-perceived Black status was negatively negatively to income (beta = -0.24). Other self-perceived racial statuses has no clearly detectable effect.
Results were interpreted as being mainly congruent with meritocracy and inconsistent with market-irrelevant racial discrimination models.
Abstract: Socially defined racial groups usually differ in average incomes, though the causes of this are contested. Here the NLSY1979 (National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, n > 11k) was analyzed to examine the relative importance of cognitive ability, market-irrelevant racial discrimination and cultural self-identification for predicting long term income (average of 25 years). The use of both self- and other-perceived racial group plausibly allows one to distinguish between effects related to how others perceive one’s racial group vs. how individuals perceive themselves. Results indicated that other-perceived Black and Hispanic racial status was associated with either no difference or slightly higher incomes when cognitive ability was controlled for (betas 0.15 and 0.11, respectively), whereas self-perceived Black status was negatively negatively to income (beta = -0.24). Other self-perceived racial statuses has no clearly detectable effect.
Results were interpreted as being mainly congruent with meritocracy and inconsistent with market-irrelevant racial discrimination models.
Minimum wage increases increase the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed
People Versus Machines: The Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs. Grace Lordan and David Neumark. NBER Working Paper, August 2017, http://www.nber.org/papers/w23667
Abstract: We study the effect of minimum wage increases on employment in automatable jobs – jobs in which employers may find it easier to substitute machines for people – focusing on low-skilled workers from whom such substitution may be spurred by minimum wage increases. Based on CPS data from 1980-2015, we find that ***increasing the minimum wage decreases significantly the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled workers, and increases the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed***. The average effects mask significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including substantive adverse effects for older, low-skilled workers in manufacturing. The findings imply that ***groups often ignored in the minimum wage literature are in fact quite vulnerable to employment changes and job loss because of automation following a minimum wage increase.***
Abstract: We study the effect of minimum wage increases on employment in automatable jobs – jobs in which employers may find it easier to substitute machines for people – focusing on low-skilled workers from whom such substitution may be spurred by minimum wage increases. Based on CPS data from 1980-2015, we find that ***increasing the minimum wage decreases significantly the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled workers, and increases the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed***. The average effects mask significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including substantive adverse effects for older, low-skilled workers in manufacturing. The findings imply that ***groups often ignored in the minimum wage literature are in fact quite vulnerable to employment changes and job loss because of automation following a minimum wage increase.***
A corporate income tax cut can reduce the non-employment rate by up to 7pct
Corporate Income Tax, Legal Form of Organization, and Employment. Daphne Chen, Shi Shao Qi and Don Schlagenhauf. Federal Reserve Working Paper, July 2017, https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2014/2014-018.pdf
Abstract: A dynamic stochastic occupational choice model with heterogeneous agents is developed to evaluate the impact of a corporate income tax reduction on employment. In this framework, the key margin is the endogenous entrepreneurial choice of the legal form of organization (LFO). A reduction in the corporate income tax burden encourages adoption of the C corporation legal form, which reduces capital constraints on firms. Improved capital re-allocation increases overall productive efficiency in the economy and therefore expands the labor market. Relative to the benchmark economy, a corporate income tax cut can reduce the non-employment rate by up to 7 percent.
Abstract: A dynamic stochastic occupational choice model with heterogeneous agents is developed to evaluate the impact of a corporate income tax reduction on employment. In this framework, the key margin is the endogenous entrepreneurial choice of the legal form of organization (LFO). A reduction in the corporate income tax burden encourages adoption of the C corporation legal form, which reduces capital constraints on firms. Improved capital re-allocation increases overall productive efficiency in the economy and therefore expands the labor market. Relative to the benchmark economy, a corporate income tax cut can reduce the non-employment rate by up to 7 percent.
Studying the Effect of Hard and Soft News Exposure on Mental Well-Being Over Time
Studying the Effect of Hard and Soft News Exposure on Mental Well-Being Over Time. Mark Boukes and Rens Vliegenthart. Journal of Media Psychology (2017), 29, pp. 137-147. https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-1105/a000224.
Abstract. Following the news is generally understood to be crucial for democracy as it allows citizens to politically participate in an informed manner; yet, one may wonder about the unintended side effects it has for the mental well-being of citizens. With news focusing on the negative and worrisome events in the world, framing that evokes a sense of powerlessness, and lack of entertainment value, this study hypothesizes that news consumption decreases mental well-being via negative hedonic experiences; thereby, we differentiate between hard and soft news. Using a panel survey in combination with latent growth curve modeling (n = 2,767), we demonstrate that ***the consumption of hard news television programs has a negative effect on the development of mental well-being over time. Soft news consumption, by contrast, has a marginally positive impact on the trend in well-being***. This can be explained by the differential topic focus, framing and style of soft news vis-à-vis hard news. Investigating the effects of news consumption on mental well-being provides insight into the impact news exposure has on variables other than the political ones, which definitively are not less societally relevant.
Keywords: news consumption, mental well-being, hedonic experiences, negativity, hard versus soft news
Abstract. Following the news is generally understood to be crucial for democracy as it allows citizens to politically participate in an informed manner; yet, one may wonder about the unintended side effects it has for the mental well-being of citizens. With news focusing on the negative and worrisome events in the world, framing that evokes a sense of powerlessness, and lack of entertainment value, this study hypothesizes that news consumption decreases mental well-being via negative hedonic experiences; thereby, we differentiate between hard and soft news. Using a panel survey in combination with latent growth curve modeling (n = 2,767), we demonstrate that ***the consumption of hard news television programs has a negative effect on the development of mental well-being over time. Soft news consumption, by contrast, has a marginally positive impact on the trend in well-being***. This can be explained by the differential topic focus, framing and style of soft news vis-à-vis hard news. Investigating the effects of news consumption on mental well-being provides insight into the impact news exposure has on variables other than the political ones, which definitively are not less societally relevant.
Keywords: news consumption, mental well-being, hedonic experiences, negativity, hard versus soft news
Trash-talking: Competitive incivility motivates rivalry, performance, and unethical behavior
Trash-talking: Competitive incivility motivates rivalry, performance, and unethical behavior. Jeremy Yip, Maurice Schweitzer & Samir Nurmohamed. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2737109
Abstract: Trash-talking increases the psychological stakes of competition and motivates targets to outperform their opponents. In Studies 1 and 2, participants in a competition who were targets of trash-talking outperformed participants who faced the same economic incentives, but were not targets of trash-talking. Perceptions of rivalry mediate the relationship between trash-talking and effort-based performance. In Study 3, we find that targets of trash-talking were particularly motivated to punish their opponents and see them lose. In Study 4, we identify a boundary condition, and show that trash-talking increases effort in competitive interactions, but incivility decreases effort in cooperative interactions. In Study 5, we find that targets of trash-talking were more likely to cheat in a competition than were participants who received neutral messages. In Study 6, we demonstrate that trash-talking harms performance when the performance task involves creativity. Taken together, our findings reveal that trash-talking is a common workplace behavior that can foster rivalry and motivate both constructive and destructive behavior.
Abstract: Trash-talking increases the psychological stakes of competition and motivates targets to outperform their opponents. In Studies 1 and 2, participants in a competition who were targets of trash-talking outperformed participants who faced the same economic incentives, but were not targets of trash-talking. Perceptions of rivalry mediate the relationship between trash-talking and effort-based performance. In Study 3, we find that targets of trash-talking were particularly motivated to punish their opponents and see them lose. In Study 4, we identify a boundary condition, and show that trash-talking increases effort in competitive interactions, but incivility decreases effort in cooperative interactions. In Study 5, we find that targets of trash-talking were more likely to cheat in a competition than were participants who received neutral messages. In Study 6, we demonstrate that trash-talking harms performance when the performance task involves creativity. Taken together, our findings reveal that trash-talking is a common workplace behavior that can foster rivalry and motivate both constructive and destructive behavior.
Changes in the Subjectively Experienced Severity of Detention: Exploring Individual Differences
Changes in the Subjectively Experienced Severity of Detention: Exploring Individual Differences. Ellen A. C. Raaijmakers et al. The Prison Journal, https://doi.org/10.1177/0032885517728902
Abstract: A core assumption underlying deterrent sentencing and just deserts theory is that the severity of imprisonment is merely dependent upon its duration. However, empirical research examining how inmates’ subjectively experienced severity of detention (SESD) changes as a function of the length of confinement remains sparse. This study assesses changes in inmates’ SESD over the course of confinement and seeks to explain this process. Multilevel analyses revealed considerable change in the SESD over the course of confinement. Although individual characteristics are related to inmates’ initial SESD, they are not related to their pattern of change in SESD over the course of confinement.
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"although the SESD (subjectively experienced severity of detention) increases during the first 3 months, it decreases thereafter, stabilizing after 9 months of confinement"
Abstract: A core assumption underlying deterrent sentencing and just deserts theory is that the severity of imprisonment is merely dependent upon its duration. However, empirical research examining how inmates’ subjectively experienced severity of detention (SESD) changes as a function of the length of confinement remains sparse. This study assesses changes in inmates’ SESD over the course of confinement and seeks to explain this process. Multilevel analyses revealed considerable change in the SESD over the course of confinement. Although individual characteristics are related to inmates’ initial SESD, they are not related to their pattern of change in SESD over the course of confinement.
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"although the SESD (subjectively experienced severity of detention) increases during the first 3 months, it decreases thereafter, stabilizing after 9 months of confinement"
Monday, September 4, 2017
Revisiting the risk of automation
Revisiting the risk of automation. Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn. Economics Letters, Volume 159, October 2017, Pages 157-160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.07.001
Highlights
• Occupation-level approaches significantly overestimate automation potentials.
• Automation risk of US jobs drops from 38 to 9% when accounting for job-level tasks.
• 3 out of 4 jobs are less automatable compared to the median job of this occupation.
• Workers apparently specialize in non-automatable niches within their profession.
Abstract: In light of rapid advances in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, many scientists discuss the potentials of new technologies to substitute for human labour. Fuelling the economic debate, various empirical assessments suggest that up to half of all jobs in western industrialized countries are at risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years. This paper demonstrates that these scenarios are overestimating the share of automatable jobs by neglecting the substantial heterogeneity of tasks within occupations as well as the adaptability of jobs in the digital transformation. To demonstrate this, we use detailed task data and show that, when taking into accounting the spectrum of tasks within occupations, the automation risk of US jobs drops, ceteris paribus, from 38 % to 9 %.
Highlights
• Occupation-level approaches significantly overestimate automation potentials.
• Automation risk of US jobs drops from 38 to 9% when accounting for job-level tasks.
• 3 out of 4 jobs are less automatable compared to the median job of this occupation.
• Workers apparently specialize in non-automatable niches within their profession.
Abstract: In light of rapid advances in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, many scientists discuss the potentials of new technologies to substitute for human labour. Fuelling the economic debate, various empirical assessments suggest that up to half of all jobs in western industrialized countries are at risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years. This paper demonstrates that these scenarios are overestimating the share of automatable jobs by neglecting the substantial heterogeneity of tasks within occupations as well as the adaptability of jobs in the digital transformation. To demonstrate this, we use detailed task data and show that, when taking into accounting the spectrum of tasks within occupations, the automation risk of US jobs drops, ceteris paribus, from 38 % to 9 %.
Adult sex ratios and partner scarcity among hunter–gatherers: Implications for dispersal patterns and the evolution of human sociality
Adult sex ratios and partner scarcity among hunter–gatherers: Implications for dispersal patterns and the evolution of human sociality. Karen Kramer, Ryan Schacht and Adrian Bell. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, Sept 19 2017, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2016.0316
Abstract: Small populations are susceptible to high genetic loads and random fluctuations in birth and death rates. While these selective forces can adversely affect their viability, small populations persist across taxa. Here, we investigate the resilience of small groups to demographic uncertainty, and specifically to fluctuations in adult sex ratio (ASR), partner availability and dispersal patterns. Using 25 years of demographic data for two Savannah Pumé groups of South American hunter–gatherers, we show that in small human populations: (i) ASRs fluctuate substantially from year to year, but do not consistently trend in a sex-biased direction; (ii) the primary driver of local variation in partner availability is stochasticity in the sex ratio at maturity; and (iii) dispersal outside of the group is an important behavioural means to mediate locally constrained mating options. To then simulate conditions under which dispersal outside of the local group may have evolved, we develop two mathematical models. Model results predict that if the ASR is biased, the globally rarer sex should disperse. The model's utility is then evaluated by applying our empirical data to this central prediction. The results are consistent with the observed hunter–gatherer pattern of variation in the sex that disperses. Together, these findings offer an alternative explanation to resource provisioning for the evolution of traits central to human sociality (e.g. flexible dispersal, bilocal post-marital residence and cooperation across local groups). We argue that in small populations, looking outside of one's local group is necessary to find a mate and that, motivated by ASR imbalance, the alliances formed to facilitate the movement of partners are an important foundation for the human-typical pattern of network formation across local groups.
KEYWORDS: Savannah Pumé; adult sex ratio; dispersal; human evolution; hunter–gatherers; sexual selection
Abstract: Small populations are susceptible to high genetic loads and random fluctuations in birth and death rates. While these selective forces can adversely affect their viability, small populations persist across taxa. Here, we investigate the resilience of small groups to demographic uncertainty, and specifically to fluctuations in adult sex ratio (ASR), partner availability and dispersal patterns. Using 25 years of demographic data for two Savannah Pumé groups of South American hunter–gatherers, we show that in small human populations: (i) ASRs fluctuate substantially from year to year, but do not consistently trend in a sex-biased direction; (ii) the primary driver of local variation in partner availability is stochasticity in the sex ratio at maturity; and (iii) dispersal outside of the group is an important behavioural means to mediate locally constrained mating options. To then simulate conditions under which dispersal outside of the local group may have evolved, we develop two mathematical models. Model results predict that if the ASR is biased, the globally rarer sex should disperse. The model's utility is then evaluated by applying our empirical data to this central prediction. The results are consistent with the observed hunter–gatherer pattern of variation in the sex that disperses. Together, these findings offer an alternative explanation to resource provisioning for the evolution of traits central to human sociality (e.g. flexible dispersal, bilocal post-marital residence and cooperation across local groups). We argue that in small populations, looking outside of one's local group is necessary to find a mate and that, motivated by ASR imbalance, the alliances formed to facilitate the movement of partners are an important foundation for the human-typical pattern of network formation across local groups.
KEYWORDS: Savannah Pumé; adult sex ratio; dispersal; human evolution; hunter–gatherers; sexual selection
Languages in Drier Climates Use Fewer Vowels
Languages in Drier Climates Use Fewer Vowels. Caleb Everett. Frontiers in Psychology, July 2017, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01285
Abstract: This study offers evidence for an environmental effect on languages while relying on continuous linguistic and continuous ecological variables. Evidence is presented for a positive association between the typical ambient humidity of a language’s native locale and that language’s degree of reliance on vowels. The vowel-usage rates of over 4000 language varieties were obtained, and several methods were employed to test whether these usage rates are associated with ambient humidity. The results of these methods are generally consistent with the notion that reduced ambient humidity eventually yields a reduced reliance of languages on vowels, when compared to consonants. The analysis controls simultaneously for linguistic phylogeny and contact between languages. The results dovetail with previous work, based on binned data, suggesting that consonantal phonemes are more common in some ecologies. In addition to being based on continuous data and a larger data sample, however, these findings are tied to experimental research suggesting that dry air affects the behavior of the larynx by yielding increased phonatory effort. The results of this study are also consistent with previous work suggesting an interaction of aridity and tonality. The data presented here suggest that languages may evolve, like the communication systems of other species, in ways that are influenced subtly by ecological factors. It is stressed that more work is required, however, to explore this association and to establish a causal relationship between ambient air characteristics and the development of languages.
KEYWORDS: adaptation; environment; evolution; language; phonetics; psychological
Abstract: This study offers evidence for an environmental effect on languages while relying on continuous linguistic and continuous ecological variables. Evidence is presented for a positive association between the typical ambient humidity of a language’s native locale and that language’s degree of reliance on vowels. The vowel-usage rates of over 4000 language varieties were obtained, and several methods were employed to test whether these usage rates are associated with ambient humidity. The results of these methods are generally consistent with the notion that reduced ambient humidity eventually yields a reduced reliance of languages on vowels, when compared to consonants. The analysis controls simultaneously for linguistic phylogeny and contact between languages. The results dovetail with previous work, based on binned data, suggesting that consonantal phonemes are more common in some ecologies. In addition to being based on continuous data and a larger data sample, however, these findings are tied to experimental research suggesting that dry air affects the behavior of the larynx by yielding increased phonatory effort. The results of this study are also consistent with previous work suggesting an interaction of aridity and tonality. The data presented here suggest that languages may evolve, like the communication systems of other species, in ways that are influenced subtly by ecological factors. It is stressed that more work is required, however, to explore this association and to establish a causal relationship between ambient air characteristics and the development of languages.
KEYWORDS: adaptation; environment; evolution; language; phonetics; psychological
Tennis grunts communicate acoustic cues to sex and contest outcome
Tennis grunts communicate acoustic cues to sex and contest outcome. Jordan Raine, Katarzyna Pisanski & David Reby. Animal Behaviour, Volume 130, August 2017, Pages 47-55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2017.06.022
Abstract: Despite their ubiquity in human behaviour, the communicative functions of nonverbal vocalizations remain poorly understood. Here, we analysed the acoustic structure of tennis grunts, nonverbal vocalizations produced in a competitive context. We predicted that tennis grunts convey information about the vocalizer and context, similar to nonhuman vocal displays. Specifically, we tested whether the fundamental frequency (F0) of tennis grunts conveys static cues to a player's sex, height, weight, and age, and covaries dynamically with tennis shot type (a proxy of body posture) and the progress and outcome of male and female professional tennis contests. We also performed playback experiments (using natural and resynthesized stimuli) to assess the perceptual relevance of tennis grunts. The F0 of tennis grunts predicted player sex, but not age or body size. Serve grunts had higher F0 than forehand and backhand grunts, grunts produced later in contests had higher F0 than those produced earlier, and grunts produced during contests that players won had a lower F0 than those produced during lost contests. This difference in F0 between losses and wins emerged early in matches, and did not change in magnitude as the match progressed, suggesting a possible role of physiological and/or psychological factors manifesting early or even before matches. Playbacks revealed that listeners use grunt F0 to infer sex and contest outcome. These findings indicate that tennis grunts communicate information about both the vocalizer and contest, consistent with nonhuman mammal vocalizations.
Abstract: Despite their ubiquity in human behaviour, the communicative functions of nonverbal vocalizations remain poorly understood. Here, we analysed the acoustic structure of tennis grunts, nonverbal vocalizations produced in a competitive context. We predicted that tennis grunts convey information about the vocalizer and context, similar to nonhuman vocal displays. Specifically, we tested whether the fundamental frequency (F0) of tennis grunts conveys static cues to a player's sex, height, weight, and age, and covaries dynamically with tennis shot type (a proxy of body posture) and the progress and outcome of male and female professional tennis contests. We also performed playback experiments (using natural and resynthesized stimuli) to assess the perceptual relevance of tennis grunts. The F0 of tennis grunts predicted player sex, but not age or body size. Serve grunts had higher F0 than forehand and backhand grunts, grunts produced later in contests had higher F0 than those produced earlier, and grunts produced during contests that players won had a lower F0 than those produced during lost contests. This difference in F0 between losses and wins emerged early in matches, and did not change in magnitude as the match progressed, suggesting a possible role of physiological and/or psychological factors manifesting early or even before matches. Playbacks revealed that listeners use grunt F0 to infer sex and contest outcome. These findings indicate that tennis grunts communicate information about both the vocalizer and contest, consistent with nonhuman mammal vocalizations.
The Perverse Effects of Subsidized Weather Insurance
Omri Ben-Shahar & Kyle D. Logue, "The Perverse Effects of Subsidized Weather Insurance," 68 Stanford Law Review 571 (2016).
Abstract. This Article explores the role of insurance as a substitute for direct regulation of risks posed by severe weather. In pricing the risk of human activity along the predicted path of storms, insurance can provide incentives for efficient location decisions as well as for cost-justified mitigation efforts in building construction and infrastructure. Currently, however, much insurance for severe-weather risks is provided and heavily subsidized by the government. This Article demonstrates two primary distortions arising from the government's dominance in these insurance markets. First, existing government subsidies are allocated differentially across households, resulting in a significant regressive redistribution favoring affluent homeowners in coastal communities. This Article provides some empirical measures of this effect. Second, existing government subsidies induce excessive development (and redevelopment) of storm-stricken and erosion-prone areas. While political efforts to scale back the insurance subsidies have so far failed, this Article contributes to a reevaluation of the social regulation of weather risk by exposing the unintended costs of government-subsidized insurance.
Abstract. This Article explores the role of insurance as a substitute for direct regulation of risks posed by severe weather. In pricing the risk of human activity along the predicted path of storms, insurance can provide incentives for efficient location decisions as well as for cost-justified mitigation efforts in building construction and infrastructure. Currently, however, much insurance for severe-weather risks is provided and heavily subsidized by the government. This Article demonstrates two primary distortions arising from the government's dominance in these insurance markets. First, existing government subsidies are allocated differentially across households, resulting in a significant regressive redistribution favoring affluent homeowners in coastal communities. This Article provides some empirical measures of this effect. Second, existing government subsidies induce excessive development (and redevelopment) of storm-stricken and erosion-prone areas. While political efforts to scale back the insurance subsidies have so far failed, this Article contributes to a reevaluation of the social regulation of weather risk by exposing the unintended costs of government-subsidized insurance.
Correcting for Bias in Psychology: A Comparison of Meta-analytic Methods
Carter, Evan C, Felix D Schönbrodt, Will M Gervais, and Joseph Hilgard. 2017. “Correcting for Bias in Psychology: A Comparison of Meta-analytic Methods”. PsyArXiv. September 1. https://psyarxiv.com/9h3nu
Abstract: Publication bias and questionable research practices in primary research can lead to badly overestimated effects in meta-analysis. Methodologists have proposed a variety of statistical approaches to correcting for such overestimation. However, much of this work has not been tailored specifically to psychology, so it is not clear which methods work best for data typically seen in our field. Here, we present a comprehensive simulation study to examine how some of the most promising meta-analytic methods perform on data typical of psychological research. We tried to mimic realistic scenarios by simulating several levels of questionable research practices, publication bias, and heterogeneity, using study sample sizes empirically derived from the literature. Our results indicate that one method – the three-parameter selection model (Iyengar & Greenhouse, 1988; McShane, Böckenholt, & Hansen, 2016) – generally performs better than trim-and-fill, p-curve, p-uniform, PET, PEESE, or PET-PEESE, and that some of these other methods should typically not be used at all. However, it is unknown whether the success of the three-parameter selection model is due to the match between its assumptions and our modeling strategy, so future work is needed to further test its robustness. Despite this, we generally recommend that meta-analysts of data in psychology use the three-parameter selection model. Moreover, we strongly recommend that researchers in psychology continue their efforts on improving the primary literature and conducting large-scale, pre-registered replications.
Abstract: Publication bias and questionable research practices in primary research can lead to badly overestimated effects in meta-analysis. Methodologists have proposed a variety of statistical approaches to correcting for such overestimation. However, much of this work has not been tailored specifically to psychology, so it is not clear which methods work best for data typically seen in our field. Here, we present a comprehensive simulation study to examine how some of the most promising meta-analytic methods perform on data typical of psychological research. We tried to mimic realistic scenarios by simulating several levels of questionable research practices, publication bias, and heterogeneity, using study sample sizes empirically derived from the literature. Our results indicate that one method – the three-parameter selection model (Iyengar & Greenhouse, 1988; McShane, Böckenholt, & Hansen, 2016) – generally performs better than trim-and-fill, p-curve, p-uniform, PET, PEESE, or PET-PEESE, and that some of these other methods should typically not be used at all. However, it is unknown whether the success of the three-parameter selection model is due to the match between its assumptions and our modeling strategy, so future work is needed to further test its robustness. Despite this, we generally recommend that meta-analysts of data in psychology use the three-parameter selection model. Moreover, we strongly recommend that researchers in psychology continue their efforts on improving the primary literature and conducting large-scale, pre-registered replications.
Ovulatory Changes in Sexuality
Arslan, Ruben C, Katharina M Schilling, Tanja M Gerlach, and Lars Penke. 2017. “Ovulatory Changes in Sexuality”. PsyArXiv. September 4. https://psyarxiv.com/jp2ym/
Abstract: Previous research reported ovulatory changes in women’s appearance, mate preferences, extra- and in-pair sexual desire and behaviour, but has been criticised for small sample sizes, inappropriate designs, and undisclosed flexibility in analyses. In the present study, we sought to address these criticisms by preregistering our hypotheses and analysis plan and by collecting a large diary sample. We gathered over 26 thousand usable online self-reports in a diary format from 1043 women, of which 421 were naturally cycling. We inferred the fertile period from menstrual onset reports. We used hormonal contraceptive users as a quasi-control group, as they experience menstruation, but not ovulation. We probed our results for robustness to different approaches (including different fertility estimates, different exclusion criteria, adjusting for potential confounds, moderation by methodological factors). We found robust evidence supporting previously reported ovulatory increases in extra-pair desire and behaviour, in-pair desire, and self-perceived desirability, as well as no unexpected associations. Yet, we did not find predicted effects on partner mate retention behaviour, clothing choices, or narcissism. Contrary to some of the earlier literature, partners’ sexual attractiveness did not moderate the cycle shifts. Taken together, the replicability of the existing literature on ovulatory changes was mixed. We conclude with simulation-based recommendations for reading the past literature and for designing future large-scale preregistered within-subject studies to understand ovulatory cycle changes and the effects of hormonal contraception. Interindividual differences in the size of ovulatory changes emerge as an important area for further study.
Abstract: Previous research reported ovulatory changes in women’s appearance, mate preferences, extra- and in-pair sexual desire and behaviour, but has been criticised for small sample sizes, inappropriate designs, and undisclosed flexibility in analyses. In the present study, we sought to address these criticisms by preregistering our hypotheses and analysis plan and by collecting a large diary sample. We gathered over 26 thousand usable online self-reports in a diary format from 1043 women, of which 421 were naturally cycling. We inferred the fertile period from menstrual onset reports. We used hormonal contraceptive users as a quasi-control group, as they experience menstruation, but not ovulation. We probed our results for robustness to different approaches (including different fertility estimates, different exclusion criteria, adjusting for potential confounds, moderation by methodological factors). We found robust evidence supporting previously reported ovulatory increases in extra-pair desire and behaviour, in-pair desire, and self-perceived desirability, as well as no unexpected associations. Yet, we did not find predicted effects on partner mate retention behaviour, clothing choices, or narcissism. Contrary to some of the earlier literature, partners’ sexual attractiveness did not moderate the cycle shifts. Taken together, the replicability of the existing literature on ovulatory changes was mixed. We conclude with simulation-based recommendations for reading the past literature and for designing future large-scale preregistered within-subject studies to understand ovulatory cycle changes and the effects of hormonal contraception. Interindividual differences in the size of ovulatory changes emerge as an important area for further study.
The effect of the presence of an audience on risk-taking while gambling: the social shield
The effect of the presence of an audience on risk-taking while gambling: the social shield. Jérémy E. Lemoine & Christine Roland-Lévy. Social Influence. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15534510.2017.1373697
Abstract: Being in a social context influences risk-taking behavior. This study aims to identify the effect of an audience’s presence on risk-taking while gambling. One hundred and thirty-two university students played a computer roulette game. They were randomly allocated to one of our three conditions: (i) either they played alone; or (ii) in the presence of the experimenter; or (iii) in the presence of the experimenter, while being videotaped. Results revealed a significant effect on risk-taking in the participants with the presence of an audience, with more risk-averse behaviors in the two types of audience conditions than in the alone condition. No differences were found between the two audience conditions. Thus, an audience may prevent risk-taking and provide a social shield.
Keywords: Social facilitation, prospect theory, risk-taking, gambling, audience
Abstract: Being in a social context influences risk-taking behavior. This study aims to identify the effect of an audience’s presence on risk-taking while gambling. One hundred and thirty-two university students played a computer roulette game. They were randomly allocated to one of our three conditions: (i) either they played alone; or (ii) in the presence of the experimenter; or (iii) in the presence of the experimenter, while being videotaped. Results revealed a significant effect on risk-taking in the participants with the presence of an audience, with more risk-averse behaviors in the two types of audience conditions than in the alone condition. No differences were found between the two audience conditions. Thus, an audience may prevent risk-taking and provide a social shield.
Keywords: Social facilitation, prospect theory, risk-taking, gambling, audience
Aggression and sleep: a daylight saving time natural experiment on the effect of mild sleep loss and gain on assaults
Aggression and sleep: a daylight saving time natural experiment on the effect of mild sleep loss and gain on assaults. Rebecca Umbach, Adrian Raine, and Greg Ridgeway. ournal of Experimental Criminology, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-017-9299-x
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to test the effect of a mild, short-term sleep loss/gain on assault rates.
Methods: Using National Incidence Based Reporting System data and city-reported data from Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, we calculated the difference in assault rates on the Monday immediately following daylight saving time (DST) as compared to the Monday a week later using a Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator model. The same analyses were performed to examine effects of the return to standard time in the fall. We employed several falsification checks.
Results: There were 2.9% fewer (95% CI: –4.2%, −1.6%, p < 0.0001) assaults immediately following DST, when we lose an hour, as compared to a week later. In contrast, there was a 2.8% rise in assaults immediately following the return to standard time, when an hour is gained, as compared to a week later (95% CI: 1.5%, 4.2%, p < 0.0001). Multiple falsification analyses suggest the spring findings to be robust, while the evidence to support the fall findings is weaker.
Conclusions: This study suggests that mild and short-term changes in sleep do significantly affect rates of assault. Specifically, ***there is support for the theory that mild sleepiness possibly associated with an hour loss of sleep results in reduced assaults***. This contradicts the simple inverse relationship currently suggested by most of the correlational literature. This study and the mixed findings presented by experimental studies indicate that measurement variability of both sleep and aggression may result in conflicting findings.
Keywords: Aggression, Antisocial behavior, Crime, Daylight saving time, Sleep
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to test the effect of a mild, short-term sleep loss/gain on assault rates.
Methods: Using National Incidence Based Reporting System data and city-reported data from Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, we calculated the difference in assault rates on the Monday immediately following daylight saving time (DST) as compared to the Monday a week later using a Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator model. The same analyses were performed to examine effects of the return to standard time in the fall. We employed several falsification checks.
Results: There were 2.9% fewer (95% CI: –4.2%, −1.6%, p < 0.0001) assaults immediately following DST, when we lose an hour, as compared to a week later. In contrast, there was a 2.8% rise in assaults immediately following the return to standard time, when an hour is gained, as compared to a week later (95% CI: 1.5%, 4.2%, p < 0.0001). Multiple falsification analyses suggest the spring findings to be robust, while the evidence to support the fall findings is weaker.
Conclusions: This study suggests that mild and short-term changes in sleep do significantly affect rates of assault. Specifically, ***there is support for the theory that mild sleepiness possibly associated with an hour loss of sleep results in reduced assaults***. This contradicts the simple inverse relationship currently suggested by most of the correlational literature. This study and the mixed findings presented by experimental studies indicate that measurement variability of both sleep and aggression may result in conflicting findings.
Keywords: Aggression, Antisocial behavior, Crime, Daylight saving time, Sleep
Sunday, September 3, 2017
Emodiversity: Robust Predictor of Outcomes or Statistical Artifact?
Brown, N. J. L., & Coyne, J. C. (2017). Emodiversity: Robust Predictor of Outcomes or Statistical Artifact? Journal of Experimental Psychology. General. DOI: 10.1037/xge0000330
Abstract: This article examines the concept of emodiversity, put forward by Quoidbach et al. (2014) as a novel source of information about “the health of the human emotional ecosystem” (p. 2057). Quoidbach et al. drew an analogy between emodiversity as a desirable property of a person’s emotional make-up and biological diversity as a desirable property of an ecosystem. They claimed that emodiversity was an independent predictor of better mental and physical health outcomes in two large-scale studies. Here, we show that Quoidbach et al.’s construct of emodiversity suffers from several theoretical and practical deficiencies, which make these authors’ use of Shannon’s (1948) entropy formula to measure emodiversity highly questionable. Our reanalysis of Quoidbach et al.’s two studies shows that the apparently substantial effects that these authors reported are likely due to a failure to conduct appropriate hierarchical regression in one case, and to suppression effects in the other. It appears that Quoidbach et al.’s claims about emodiversity may reduce to little more than a set of computational and statistical artifacts.
Abstract: This article examines the concept of emodiversity, put forward by Quoidbach et al. (2014) as a novel source of information about “the health of the human emotional ecosystem” (p. 2057). Quoidbach et al. drew an analogy between emodiversity as a desirable property of a person’s emotional make-up and biological diversity as a desirable property of an ecosystem. They claimed that emodiversity was an independent predictor of better mental and physical health outcomes in two large-scale studies. Here, we show that Quoidbach et al.’s construct of emodiversity suffers from several theoretical and practical deficiencies, which make these authors’ use of Shannon’s (1948) entropy formula to measure emodiversity highly questionable. Our reanalysis of Quoidbach et al.’s two studies shows that the apparently substantial effects that these authors reported are likely due to a failure to conduct appropriate hierarchical regression in one case, and to suppression effects in the other. It appears that Quoidbach et al.’s claims about emodiversity may reduce to little more than a set of computational and statistical artifacts.
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