This man is superhuman, and very rarely lets his feelings color his economic judgement. In fact, it seems that this happened to him just once, and quickly retracted. Besides, he is so old-fashioned that he tries to admit and learn from his mistakes

This man is superhuman, and very rarely lets his feelings color his economic judgement. In fact, it seems that this happened to him just once, and quickly retracted. Besides, he is so old-fashioned that he tries to admit and learn from his mistakes:

Can the Economy Keep Calm and Carry On? Paul Krugman. The New York Times, Jan 01 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/opinion/can-the-economy-keep-calm-and-carry-on.html

On election night 2016, I gave in temporarily to a temptation I warn others about: I let my political feelings distort my economic judgment. A very bad man had just won the Electoral College; and my first thought was that this would translate quickly into a bad economy. I quickly retracted the claim, and issued a mea culpa. (Being an old-fashioned guy, I try to admit and learn from my mistakes.)

What I should have clung to, despite my dismay, was the well-known proposition that in normal times the president has very little influence on macroeconomic developments — far less influence than the chair of the Federal Reserve.

[...]

 ---

•        "Some have asked if there aren't conservative sites I read regularly. Well, no. I will read anything I've been informed about that's either interesting or revealing; but I don't know of any economics or politics sites on that side that regularly provide analysis or information I need to take seriously."--Paul Krugman, New York Times website, March 8, 2011, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/08/other-stuff-i-read/

•        "I brought up the work of the legal scholar Cass Sunstein, now with the Obama administration, who has studied the radicalizing effects of ideological isolation--the idea, born from studies of three-judge panels, that if you are not in regular conversation with people who differ from you, you can become far more extreme. It is a very Obama idea, and I asked Krugman if he ever worried that he might succumb to that tendency. 'It could happen,' he says. 'But I work a lot from data; that's enough of an anchor. I have a good sense when a claim has gone too far.' "--Benjamin Wallace-Wells, New York magazine, April 24, 2011, http://nymag.com/print/?/news/politics/paul-krugman-2011-5/index5.html

 

Update: The Washington Post & Gavin Schmidt on Sept 2023 temps https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2023/10/the-washington-post-gavin-schmidt-on.html

Investigation of brain structure in the 1-month infant – Girls and boys are different by then...

Investigation of brain structure in the 1-month infant. Douglas C. Dean III. Brain Structure and Function, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00429-017-1600-2

Abstract: The developing brain undergoes systematic changes that occur at successive stages of maturation. Deviations from the typical neurodevelopmental trajectory are hypothesized to underlie many early childhood disorders; thus, characterizing the earliest patterns of normative brain development is essential. Recent neuroimaging research provides insight into brain structure during late childhood and adolescence; however, few studies have examined the infant brain, particularly in infants under 3 months of age. Using high-resolution structural MRI, we measured subcortical gray and white matter brain volumes in a cohort (N = 143) of 1-month infants and examined characteristics of these volumetric measures throughout this early period of neurodevelopment. We show that brain volumes undergo age-related changes during the first month of life, with the corresponding patterns of regional asymmetry and sexual dimorphism. Specifically, males have larger total brain volume and volumes differ by sex in regionally specific brain regions, after correcting for total brain volume. Consistent with findings from studies of later childhood and adolescence, subcortical regions appear more rightward asymmetric. Neither sex differences nor regional asymmetries changed with gestation-corrected age. Our results complement a growing body of work investigating the earliest neurobiological changes associated with development and suggest that asymmetry and sexual dimorphism are present at birth.

How Hot Are They? Neural Correlates of Genital Arousal: An Infrared Thermographic and Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study of Sexual Arousal in Men and Women

Parada M, Gérard M, Larcher K, et al. How Hot Are They? Neural Correlates of Genital Arousal: An Infrared Thermographic and Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study of Sexual Arousal in Men and Women. J Sex Med 2017;xx:xxx–xxx. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsxm.2017.12.006

Abstract

Background: The few studies that have examined the neural correlates of genital arousal have focused on men and are methodologically hard to compare.

Aim: To investigate the neural correlates of peripheral physiologic sexual arousal using identical methodology for men and women.

Methods: 2 groups (20 men, 20 women) viewed movie clips (erotic, humor) while genital temperature was continuously measured using infrared thermal imaging. Participants also continuously evaluated changes in their subjective arousal and answered discrete questions about liking the movies and wanting sexual stimulation. Brain activity, indicated by blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response, was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging.

Outcomes: BOLD responses, genital temperature, and subjective sexual arousal.

Results: BOLD activity in a number of brain regions was correlated with changes in genital temperature in men and women; however, activation in women appeared to be more extensive than in men, including the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex, right cerebellum, insula, frontal operculum, and paracingulate gyrus. Examination of the strength of the correlation between BOLD response and genital temperature showed that women had a stronger brain-genital relation compared with men in a number of regions. There were no brain regions in men with stronger brain-genital correlations than in women.

Clinical Translation: Our findings shed light on the neurophysiologic processes involved in genital arousal for men and women. Further research examining the specific brain regions that mediate our findings is necessary to pave the way for clinical application.

Strengths and Limitations: A strength of the study is the use of thermography, which allows for a direct comparison of the neural correlates of genital arousal in men and women. This study has the common limitations of most laboratory-based sexual arousal research, including sampling bias, lack of ecologic validity, and equipment limitations, and those common to neuroimaging research, including BOLD signal interpretation and neuroimaging analysis issues.

Conclusions: Our findings provide direct sex comparisons of the neural correlates of genital arousal in men and women and suggest that brain-genital correlations could be stronger in women.

Key Words: Genital Arousal; Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging; Sexual Arousal; Gender Differences; Thermography

Sam Rosenfeld's The Polarizers: Modern political polarization was a deliberate project carried out by Democratic and Republican activists

The Polarizers: Postwar Architects of Our Partisan Era Hardcover. Sam Rosenfeld. December 28, 2017, https://www.amazon.com/Polarizers-Postwar-Architects-Our-Partisan/dp/022640725X

Even in this most partisan and dysfunctional of eras, we can all agree on one thing: Washington is broken. Politicians take increasingly inflexible and extreme positions, leading to gridlock, partisan warfare, and the sense that our seats of government are nothing but cesspools of hypocrisy, childishness, and waste. The shocking reality, though, is that modern polarization was a deliberate project carried out by Democratic and Republican activists.

In The Polarizers, Sam Rosenfeld details why bipartisanship was seen as a problem in the postwar period and how polarization was then cast as the solution. Republicans and Democrats feared that they were becoming too similar, and that a mushy consensus imperiled their agendas and even American democracy itself. Thus began a deliberate move to match ideology with party label—with the toxic results we now endure. Rosenfeld reveals the specific politicians, intellectuals, and operatives who worked together to heighten partisan discord, showing that our system today is not (solely) a product of gradual structural shifts but of deliberate actions motivated by specific agendas. Rosenfeld reveals that the story of Washington’s transformation is both significantly institutional and driven by grassroots influences on both the left and the right.

The Polarizers brilliantly challenges and overturns our conventional narrative about partisanship, but perhaps most importantly, it points us toward a new consensus: if we deliberately created today’s dysfunctional environment, we can deliberately change it.

Intentional Fire-Spreading by “Firehawk” Raptors in Northern Australia

Intentional Fire-Spreading by “Firehawk” Raptors in Northern Australia. Mark Bonta et al. Journal of Ethnobiology 37(4):700-718. 2017, https://doi.org/10.2993/0278-0771-37.4.700

Abstract: We document Indigenous Ecological Knowledge and non-Indigenous observations of intentional fire-spreading by the fire-foraging raptors Black Kite (Milvus migrans), Whistling Kite (Haliastur sphenurus), and Brown Falcon (Falco berigora) in tropical Australian savannas. Observers report both solo and cooperative attempts, often successful, to spread wildfires intentionally via single-occasion or repeated transport of burning sticks in talons or beaks. This behavior, often represented in sacred ceremonies, is widely known to local people in the Northern Territory, where we carried out ethno-ornithological research from 2011 to 2017; it was also reported to us from Western Australia and Queensland. Though Aboriginal rangers and others who deal with bushfires take into account the risks posed by raptors that cause controlled burns to jump across firebreaks, official skepticism about the reality of avian fire-spreading hampers effective planning for landscape management and restoration. Via ethno-ornithological workshops and controlled field experiments with land managers, our collaborative research aims to situate fire-spreading as an important factor in fire management and fire ecology. In a broader sense, better understanding of avian fire-spreading, both in Australia and, potentially, elsewhere, can contribute to theories about the evolution of tropical savannas and the origins of human fire use.

Keywords: avian fire-foraging, avian fire-spreading, Black Kite, Brown Falcon, Whistling Kite

New framework for the psychological origins of human cooperation that harnesses evolutionary theories about the two major problems posed by cooperation: generating and distributing benefits

How Children Solve the Two Challenges of Cooperation. Felix Warneken. Annual Review of Psychology, Vol. 69:205-229 (January 2018), https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-122216-011813

Abstract: In this review, I propose a new framework for the psychological origins of human cooperation that harnesses evolutionary theories about the two major problems posed by cooperation: generating and distributing benefits. Children develop skills foundational for identifying and creating opportunities for cooperation with others early: Infants and toddlers already possess basic skills to help others and share resources. Yet mechanisms that solve the free-rider problem—critical for sustaining cooperation as a viable strategy—emerge later in development and are more sensitive to the influence of social norms. I review empirical studies with children showing a dissociation in the origins of and developmental change seen in these two sets of processes. In addition, comparative studies of nonhuman apes also highlight important differences between these skills: The ability to generate benefits has evolutionary roots that are shared between humans and nonhuman apes, whereas there is little evidence that other apes exhibit comparable capacities for distributing benefits. I conclude by proposing ways in which this framework can motivate new developmental, comparative, and cross-cultural research about human cooperation.

No evidence that more physically attractive women have higher estradiol or progesterone

No evidence that more physically attractive women have higher estradiol or progesterone. Benedict C. Jones et al. bioRxiv, doi https://doi.org/10.1101/136515

Abstract: Putative associations between sex hormones and attractive physical characteristics in women are central to many theories of human physical attractiveness and mate choice. Although such theories have become very influential, evidence that physically attractive and unattractive women have different hormonal profiles is equivocal. Consequently, we investigated hypothesized relationships between salivary estradiol and progesterone and two aspects of women's physical attractiveness that are commonly assumed to be correlated with levels of these hormones: facial attractiveness (N=249) and waist-to-hip ratio (N=247). Our analyses revealed no evidence that women with more attractive faces or lower (i.e., more attractive) waist-to-hip ratios had higher levels of estradiol or progesterone. These results do not support the influential hypothesis that between-woman differences in physical attractiveness are related to estradiol and/or progesterone.

We find that virtually all core assumptions and hypothesized mechanisms of posttraumatic stress disorder lack compelling or consistent empirical support

Posttraumatic stress disorder: An empirical evaluation of core assumptions. Gerald M.Rosen, Scott O. Lilienfeld. Clinical Psychology Review, Volume 28, Issue 5, June 2008, Pages 837-868, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2007.12.002

Abstract: The diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) rests on several core assumptions, particularly the premise that a distinct class of traumatic events is linked to a distinct clinical syndrome. This core assumption of specific etiology ostensibly distinguishes the PTSD diagnosis from virtually all other psychiatric disorders. Additional attempts to distinguish PTSD from extant conditions have included searches for distinctive markers (e.g., biological and laboratory findings) and hypothesized underlying mechanisms (e.g., fragmentation of traumatic memory). We review the literature on PTSD's core assumptions and various attempts to validate the construct within a nomological network of distinctive correlates. We find that virtually all core assumptions and hypothesized mechanisms lack compelling or consistent empirical support. We consider the implications of these findings for conceptualizing PTSD in the forthcoming edition of the American Psychiatric Association's diagnostic manual.

Keywords: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); Validity; Construct validity; Discriminant validity; Traumatic events;Criterion A; Symptom criteria

Whereas humans already prefer helpers by 3 months of age, bonobos favor hinderers, maybe from attraction to dominant individuals

Bonobos Prefer Individuals that Hinder Others over Those that Help. Christopher Krupenye, Brian Hare. Current Biology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.11.061

Highlights
•    Bonobos discriminate between agents that either help or hinder others
•    Whereas humans already prefer helpers by 3 months of age, bonobos favor hinderers
•    Bonobos’ preference may stem from attraction to dominant individuals
•    This form of prosocial preference may be derived in humans

Summary: Humans closely monitor others’ cooperative relationships [1 ;  2]. Children and adults willingly incur costs to reward helpers and punish non-helpers—even as bystanders [3; 4 ;  5]. Already by 3 months, infants favor individuals that they observe helping others [6; 7 ;  8]. This early-emerging prosocial preference may be a derived motivation that accounts for many human forms of cooperation that occur beyond dyadic interactions and are not exhibited by other animals [9 ;  10]. As the most socially tolerant nonhuman ape [11; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16 ;  17] (but see [18]), bonobos (Pan paniscus) provide a powerful phylogenetic test of whether this trait is derived in humans. Bonobos are more tolerant than chimpanzees, can flexibly obtain food through cooperation, and voluntarily share food in captivity and the wild, even with strangers [ 11; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16 ;  17] (but see [18]). Their neural architecture exhibits a suite of characteristics associated with greater sensitivity to others [ 19 ;  20], and their sociality is hypothesized to have evolved due to selection against male aggression [ 21; 22 ;  23]. Here we show in four experiments that bonobos discriminated agents based on third-party interactions. However, they did not exhibit the human preference for helpers. Instead, they reliably favored a hinderer that obstructed another agent’s goal (experiments 1–3). In a final study (experiment 4), bonobos also chose a dominant individual over a subordinate. Bonobos’ interest in hinderers may reflect attraction to dominant individuals [24]. A preference for helpers over hinderers may therefore be derived in humans, supporting the hypothesis that prosocial preferences played a central role in the evolution of human development and cooperation.

Keywords: prosocial preference; prosocial motivation; social evaluation; third-party knowledge; cooperation; human evolution; human development; bonobo; great ape; reputation attribution

Historians and students asked to check on-line information often fell victim to easily manipulated features of websites, such as official-looking logos and domain names

Wineburg S., Breakstone J., McGrew S., Ortega T. (2018) Why Google Can’t Save Us. In: Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia O., Wittum G., Dengel A. (eds) Positive Learning in the Age of Information, pp 221-228, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-19567-0_13

Abstract: The Stanford History Education Group has prototyped, field tested, and validated a bank of assessments that tap civic online reasoning—the ability to judge the credibility of the information that floods young people’s smartphones, tablets, and computers. We developed 56 tasks and administered them to students across 12 states. In total, we collected and analyzed 7,804 student responses. From pre-teens to seniors in college, students struggled mightily to evaluate online information. To investigate how people determine the credibility of digital information, we sampled 45 individuals: 10 PhD historians, 10 professional fact checkers, and 25 Stanford University undergraduates. We observed them as they evaluated websites and engaged in open web searches on social and political issues. Historians and students often fell victim to easily manipulated features of websites, such as official-looking logos and domain names.

In 1994, 16 pct of Democrats had a “very unfavorable” view of the GOP, now are 38 pct. Then, 17 pct of Republicans had a “very unfavorable” view of Democrats, now it is 43 pct. Mutual opinion: closed-minded, dishonest, immoral, lazy, unintelligent

The Retreat to Tribalism. David Brooks
The New York Times, Jan 1, 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/opinion/the-retreat-to-tribalism.html

photo removed

[...]

[...] N.Y.U.’s Jonathan Haidt [listed] in a lecture delivered to the Manhattan Institute in November [...] some of the reasons centrifugal forces may now exceed centripetal: the loss of the common enemies we had in World War II and the Cold War, an increasingly fragmented media, the radicalization of the Republican Party, and a new form of identity politics, especially on campus.

Haidt made the interesting point that identity politics per se is not the problem. Identity politics is just political mobilization around group characteristics. The problem is that identity politics has dropped its centripetal elements and become entirely centrifugal.

[...]

From an identity politics that emphasized our common humanity, we’ve gone to an identity politics that emphasizes having a common enemy. On campus these days, current events are often depicted as pure power struggles — oppressors acting to preserve their privilege over the virtuous oppressed.

“A funny thing happens,” Haidt said, “when you take young human beings, whose minds evolved for tribal warfare and us/them thinking, and you fill those minds full of binary dimensions. You tell them that one side in each binary is good and the other is bad. You turn on their ancient tribal circuits, preparing them for battle. Many students find it thrilling; it floods them with a sense of meaning and purpose.”

The problem is that tribal common-enemy thinking tears a diverse nation apart.

[...]

In 1994, only 16 percent of Democrats had a “very unfavorable” view of the G.O.P. Now, 38 percent do. Then, only 17 percent of Republicans had a “very unfavorable” view of Democrats. Now, 43 percent do. When the Pew Research Center asked Democrats and Republicans to talk about each other, they tended to use the same words: closed-minded, dishonest, immoral, lazy, unintelligent.

[...]

Over the past two generations, however, excessive individualism and bad schooling have corroded both of those sources of cohesion.

In 1995, the French intellectual Pascal Bruckner published “The Temptation of Innocence,” in which he argued that excessive individualism paradoxically leads to in-group/out-group tribalism. Modern individualism releases each person from social obligation, but “being guided only by the lantern of his own understanding, the individual loses all assurance of a place, an order, a definition. He may have gained freedom, but he has lost security.”

In societies like ours, individuals are responsible for their own identity, happiness and success. “Everyone must sell himself as a person in order to be accepted,” Bruckner wrote. We all are constantly comparing ourselves to others and, of course, coming up short. The biggest anxiety is moral. We each have to write our own gospel that defines our own virtue.

The easiest way to do that is to tell a tribal oppressor/oppressed story and build your own innocence on your status as victim. Just about everybody can find a personal victim story. Once you’ve identified your herd’s oppressor — the neoliberal order, the media elite, white males, whatever — your goodness is secure. You have virtue without obligation. Nothing is your fault.

“What is moral order today? Not so much the reign of right-thinking people as that of right-suffering, the cult of everyday despair,” Bruckner continued. “I suffer, therefore I am worthy. … Suffering is analogous to baptism, a dubbing that inducts us into the order of a higher humanity, hoisting us above our peers.”

[...]

A version of this op-ed appears in print on January 2, 2018, on Page A15 of the New York edition with the headline: The Retreat To Tribalism.

Lower resting heart rate predicts the ability to detect deception: The rate indicates the level of autonomous arousal, the level of arousal influences information processing

Resting heart rate: A physiological predicator of lie detection ability. Geoffrey Duran, Isabelle Tapiero, George A. Michael. Physiology & Behavior, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physbeh.2018.01.002

Highlights
•    An investigation of the ability to detect deception is proposed.
•    Resting heart rate predicts the ability to detect deception.
•    Resting heart rate indicates the level of autonomous arousal.
•    The level of arousal influences information processing.
•    Resting heart rate helps to distinguish between poor and good deception detectors.

Abstract: This study explored a psychophysiological measure, Resting Heart Rate (RHR), as a predicator of the ability to detect lies. RHR was recorded for 1 min and followed by a deception detection task in which participants were required to judge 24 videos of people describing a real-life event (50% truthful, 50% deceptive). Multiple regression analyses showed that, among other individual characteristics, only RHR predicted the ability to distinguish truth from lies. Importantly, the prediction was negative. This result suggests that the higher the RHR, the worse the detection of lies. Since the RHR is considered to be a physiological trait indexing autonomous arousal, and since high-arousal states can lead to restricted attentional resources, we suggest that limited selection and utilization of cues due to restricted attention is the reason why higher RHR leads to poor deception detection.

Keywords: Detection of deception; Resting heart rate; Arousal; Cue utilization theory

Drawing on an analysis of 1.2 million vehicle movements, we show that reduced road/street illuminance levels are associated with increased car speeding

Blind haste: As light decreases, speeding increases. Emanuel de Bellis et al. PLOS One, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0188951

Abstract: Worldwide, more than one million people die on the roads each year. A third of these fatal accidents are attributed to speeding, with properties of the individual driver and the environment regarded as key contributing factors. We examine real-world speeding behavior and its interaction with illuminance, an environmental property defined as the luminous flux incident on a surface. Drawing on an analysis of 1.2 million vehicle movements, we show that reduced illuminance levels are associated with increased speeding. This relationship persists when we control for factors known to influence speeding (e.g., fluctuations in traffic volume) and consider proxies of illuminance (e.g., sight distance). Our findings add to a long-standing debate about how the quality of visual conditions affects drivers’ speed perception and driving speed. Policy makers can intervene by educating drivers about the inverse illuminance‒speeding relationship and by testing how improved vehicle headlights and smart road lighting can attenuate speeding.

The five-dimensional curiosity scale: Capturing the bandwidth of curiosity and identifying four unique subgroups of curious people

Kashdan, T.B., Stiksma, M.C.,Disabato, D., McKnight, P.E., Bekier, J., Kaji, J., & Lazarus, R. (in press). The five-dimensional curiosity scale: Capturing the bandwidth of curiosity and identifying four unique subgroups of curious people. Journal of Research in Personality, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321471978_The_Five-Dimensional_Curiosity_Scale_Capturing_the_bandwidth_of_curiosity_and_identifying_four_unique_subgroups_of_curious_people

Abstract: Since the origins of psychology, curiosity has occupied a pivotal position in the study of motivation, emotion, and cognition; and disciplines as far-ranging as biology, economics, robotics, and leadership. Theorists have disagreed about the basic tenets of curiosity; some researchers contend that the rewards arise when resolving ambiguity and uncertainty whereas others argue that being curious is an intrinsically pleasurable experience. Three studies were conducted to consolidate competing theories and isolated bodies of research. Using data from a community survey of 508 adults (Study 1), 403 adults on MTurk (Study 2), and a nationally representative household survey of 3,000 adults (Study 3), we found evidence for five distinct factors: Joyous Exploration, Deprivation Sensitivity, Stress Tolerance, Social Curiosity, and Thrill Seeking - forming The Five-Dimensional Curiosity Scale (5DC). Each factor had substantive relations with a battery of personality, emotion, and well-being measures. Taking advantage of this multidimensional model, we found evidence for four distinct types of curious people in Study 3 referred to as The Fascinated (28% of sample), Problem Solvers (28%), Empathizers (25%), and Avoiders (19%). Subgroups differed in their passionate interests, areas of expertise, consumer behavior, and social media use; challenging an assumption that there is a homogenous population to be discriminated on a single dimension from incurious to very curious. With greater bandwidth and predictive power, the 5DC offers new opportunities for research on origins, consequences, life outcomes, and intervention strategies to enhance curiosity.

---
What Are the Five Dimensions of Curiosity? Todd B. Kashdan
A comprehensive new model to understand and measure curiosity.
Jan 02, 2018
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/curious/201801/what-are-the-five-dimensions-curiosity

Extracts:

Upon collecting data from a nationally representative sample of 508 adults, and then 403 adults online, and then another nationally representative sample of 3,000 adults, we uncovered 5 dimensions of curiosity:

1. Joyous Exploration - this is the prototype of curiosity – the recognition and desire to seek out new knowledge and information, and the subsequent joy of learning and growing.

2. Deprivation Sensitivity - this dimension has a distinct emotional tone, with anxiety and tension being more prominent than joy – pondering abstract or complex ideas, trying to solve problems, and seeking to reduce gaps in knowledge.

3. Stress Tolerance - this dimension is about the willingness to embrace the doubt, confusion, anxiety, and other forms of distress that arise from exploring new, unexpected, complex, mysterious, or obscure events.

4. Social Curiosity - wanting to know what other people are thinking and doing by observing, talking, or listening in to conversations.

5. Thrill Seeking - the willingness to take physical, social, and financial risks to acquire varied, complex, and intense experiences.

[...]

And upon treating these dimensions as part of a single profile, we found evidence for 4 types of curious people:

1. The Fascinated - high on all dimensions of curiosity, particularly Joyous Exploration

2. Problem Solvers - high on Deprivation Sensitivity, medium on other dimensions

3. Empathizers - high on Social Curiosity, medium on other dimensions

4. Avoiders - low on all dimensions, particularly Stress Tolerance

Identification of acutely sick people and facial cues of sickness

Identification of acutely sick people and facial cues of sickness. John Axelsson, Tina Sundelin, Mats J. Olsson, Kimmo Sorjonen, Charlotte Axelsson, Julie Lasselin, Mats Lekander. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.2430

Abstract: Detection and avoidance of sick individuals have been proposed as essential components in a behavioural defence against disease, limiting the risk of contamination. However, almost no knowledge exists on whether humans can detect sick individuals, and if so by what cues. Here, we demonstrate that untrained people can identify sick individuals above chance level by looking at facial photos taken 2 h after injection with a bacterial stimulus inducing an immune response (2.0 ng kg−1 lipopolysaccharide) or placebo, the global sensitivity index being d′ = 0.405. Signal detection analysis (receiver operating characteristic curve area) showed an area of 0.62 (95% confidence intervals 0.60–0.63). Acutely sick people were rated by naive observers as having paler lips and skin, a more swollen face, droopier corners of the mouth, more hanging eyelids, redder eyes, and less glossy and patchy skin, as well as appearing more tired. Our findings suggest that facial cues associated with the skin, mouth and eyes can aid in the detection of acutely sick and potentially contagious people.

Openness to experience, rather than intellectual curiosity, is the investment personality trait that broadly benefits learning and adult intelligence

Better Open Than Intellectual: The Benefits of Investment Personality Traits for Learning. Sophie von Stumm. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin,  https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167217744526

Abstract: The investment theory of adult intelligence posits that individual differences in knowledge attainment result from people’s differences in cognitive ability and their propensity to apply and invest that ability, which is referred to as investment personality traits. Here, we differentiated intellectual (i.e., intellectual curiosity) and nonintellectual investment (i.e., openness to experience), and we tested their respective predictive validity for knowledge attainment in four independent lab-based studies (overall N = 649). Openness to experience was positively associated with knowledge attainment across all four studies, and this effect was by and large independent of cognitive ability. By contrast, intellectual curiosity was not related to knowledge attainment. The findings suggest that openness to experience, rather than intellectual curiosity, is the investment personality trait that broadly benefits learning and adult intelligence.

Keywords: investment personality traits, openness, intellectual curiosity, intelligence, learning

People are often uncomfortable dealing with financial decisions 'cause they perceive financial decisions – more so than decisions in many other equally complex and important domains – as compatible with a cold, analytical mode of thinking and as incompatible with feelings and emotions

Park, Jane Jeongin and Sela, Aner, Not My Type: Why Affective Decision-Makers Are Reluctant to Make Financial Decisions (May 10, 2017). Journal of Consumer Research, 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2966299 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2966299

Abstract: Why are people often uncomfortable dealing with financial decisions? We propose that people perceive financial decisions – more so than decisions in many other equally complex and important domains – as compatible with a cold, analytical mode of thinking and as incompatible with feelings and emotions. Consequently, the more people perceive themselves as inclined to rely on affect in their decisions, the more they experience self-concept incongruity with financial decisions (i.e., feeling that financial decisions are “not them”), and consequently show an increased tendency to avoid such decisions. Five studies demonstrate this phenomenon using both consequential and hypothetical decisions, provide evidence for the proposed mechanism, and rule out alternative accounts, including perceived financial knowledge, expertise and self-efficacy perceptions, decision confidence, and preference for numerical information. The findings contribute to research on thinking styles and decision avoidance, and they underscore a characteristic of financial decisions that makes them stand out among many other decision types. In addition to their theoretical significance, the findings have practical implications for the communication of financial products and services.

Keywords: Financial decisions, thinking styles, decision avoidance, analytical thinking, emotions

Sexual identity, attraction and behaviour in Britain: The implications of using different dimensions of sexual orientation to estimate the size of sexual minority populations

Sexual identity, attraction and behaviour in Britain: The implications of using different dimensions of sexual orientation to estimate the size of sexual minority populations and inform public health interventions. Rebecca S. Geary et al. PLoS One, 10.1371/journal.pone.0189607

Abstract

Background: Sexual orientation encompasses three dimensions: sexual identity, attraction and behaviour. There is increasing demand for data on sexual orientation to meet equality legislation, monitor potential inequalities and address public health needs. We present estimates of all three dimensions and their overlap in British men and women, and consider the implications for health services, research and the development and evaluation of public health interventions.

Methods: Analyses of data from Britain’s third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, a probability sample survey (15,162 people aged 16–74 years) undertaken in 2010–2012.

Findings: A lesbian, gay or bisexual (LGB) identity was reported by 2·5% of men and 2·4% of women, whilst 6·5% of men and 11·5% of women reported any same-sex attraction and 5·5% of men and 6·1% of women reported ever experience of same-sex sex. This equates to approximately 547,000 men and 546,000 women aged 16–74 in Britain self-identifying as LGB and 1,204,000 men and 1,389,000 women ever having experience of same-sex sex. Of those reporting same-sex sex in the past 5 years, 28% of men and 45% of women identified as heterosexual.

Interpretation: There is large variation in the size of sexual minority populations depending on the dimension applied, with implications for the design of epidemiological studies, targeting and monitoring of public health interventions and estimating population-based denominators. There is also substantial diversity on an individual level between identity, behaviour and attraction, adding to the complexity of delivering appropriate services and interventions.

The formation of creative clusters is not preceded by increases in city size. Instead, the emergence of city institutions protecting economic and political freedoms facilitates the attraction and production of creative talent

Serafinelli, Michel and Tabellini, Guido, Creativity Over Time and Space (October 2017). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12365. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3053893

Abstract: Creativity is often highly concentrated in time and space, and across different domains. What explains the formation and decay of clusters of creativity? In this paper we match data on thousands of notable individuals born in Europe between the XIth and the XIXth century with historical data on city institutions and population. After documenting several stylized facts, we show that the formation of creative clusters is not preceded by increases in city size. Instead, the emergence of city institutions protecting economic and political freedoms facilitates the attraction and production of creative talent.

Keywords: agglomeration, Gravity, Immigration, Innovation, Political Institutions

Perfectionism Is Increasing Over Time: A Meta-Analysis of Birth Cohort Differences From 1989 to 2016

Curran, T., & Hill, A. P. (2017, December 28). Perfectionism Is Increasing Over Time: A Meta-Analysis of Birth Cohort Differences From 1989 to 2016. Psychological Bulletin, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/bul000013

From the 1980s onward, neoliberal governance in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom has emphasized competitive individualism and people have seemingly responded, in kind, by agitating to perfect themselves and their lifestyles. In this study, the authors examine whether cultural changes have coincided with an increase in multidimensional perfectionism in college students over the last 27 years. Their analyses are based on 164 samples and 41,641 American, Canadian, and British college students, who completed the Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale (Hewitt & Flett, 1991) between 1989 and 2016 (70.92% female, median age = 20.66). Cross-temporal meta-analysis revealed that levels of self-oriented perfectionism, socially prescribed perfectionism, and other-oriented perfectionism have linearly increased. These trends remained when controlling for gender and between-country differences in perfectionism scores. Overall, in order of magnitude of the observed increase, the findings indicate that recent generations of young people perceive that others are more demanding of them, are more demanding of others, and are more demanding of themselves.

Keywords: personality, culture, neoliberalism, psychopathology

Swearing generally resulted in poorer impressions being formed. Female timeline owners who did not swear were considered particularly attractive. Men perceived female timeline owners who swore as more physically attractive, but less task attractive

Westrop, Sophie, Emily Nordmann, Gillian Bruce, and Graham G Scott. 2018. “F*c*book: Swearing Impacts Impression Formation on Social Media”. PsyArXiv. January 2. psyarxiv.com/wvcs

Abstract: The language we use can influence the impressions others form of us. Swearing is a taboo linguistic category often used offline with striking and often gender-specific results. Swear words are employed in informal online contexts such as social networks but their impact in such domains is unclear. To investigate the effect of swearing in online impression formation we asked 276 participants to view Facebook timelines containing swearing or no swearing, and form impressions of the timeline owners on dimensions of attractiveness, professionalism, and credibility. All data and code is available at https://osf.io/acpgw/. Swearing generally resulted in poorer impressions being formed. Female timeline owners who did not swear were considered particularly attractive. Men perceived female timeline owners who swore as more physically attractive, but less task attractive. Results are discussed in relation to online impression formation and employability.

Irrational choice behavior in human and nonhuman primates (macaques, capuchins)

Irrational choice behavior in human and nonhuman primates. Bonnie M. Perdue and Ella R. Brown. Animal Cognition, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10071-017-1156-9

Abstract: Choice behavior in humans has motivated a large body of research with a focus on whether decisions can be considered to be rational. In general, humans prefer having choice, as do a number of other species that have been tested, even though having increased choice does not necessarily yield a positive outcome. Humans have been found to choose an option more often only because the opportunity to select it was diminishing, an example of a deviation from economic rationality. Here we extend this paradigm to nonhuman primates in an effort to understand the mechanisms underlying this finding. In this study, we presented two groups of laboratory monkeys, capuchins (Cebus apella) and rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), as well as human subjects, with a computerized task in which subjects were presented with two differently colored icons. When the subject selected an icon, differing numbers of food pellets were dispensed (or points were assigned), making each icon correspond to a certain level of risk (one icon yielded 1 or 4 pellets/points and the other yielded 2 or 3). Initially, both options remained constantly available and we established choice preference scores for each subject. Then, we assessed preference patterns once the options were not continuously available. Specifically, choosing one icon would cause the other to shrink in size on the screen and eventually disappear if never selected. Selecting it would restore it to its full size. As predicted, humans shifted their risk preferences in the diminishing options phase, choosing to click on both icons more equally in order to keep both options available. At the group level, capuchin monkeys showed this pattern as well, but there was a great deal of individual variability in both capuchins and macaques. The present work suggests that there is some degree of continuity between human and nonhuman primates in the desire to have choice simply for the sake of having choice.

The dead are intuited to survive death, whereas persistent vegetative state patients are intuited as more dead than the dead

Dead-Survivors, the Living Dead, and Concepts of Death. K. Mitch Hodge. Review of Philosophy and Psychology, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13164-017-0377-9

Abstract: The author introduces and critically analyzes two recent, curious findings and their accompanying explanations regarding how the folk intuits the capabilities of the dead and those in a persistent vegetative state (PVS). The dead are intuited to survive death, whereas PVS patients are intuited as more dead than the dead. Current explanations of these curious findings rely on how the folk is said to conceive of death and the dead: either as the annihilation of the person (via the secular conception of death), or that person’s continuation as a disembodied being (via folk dualism). The author argues that these two conceptions are incompatible and inconsistent with each other and the evidence. Contrariwise, the author argues that the folk intuition about dead-survivors and the living dead are more easily explained by appealing to cross-culturally established concepts: the folk biological concept of death the existential (metaphorical) concept of death, and the concept of social death.


Check also Using facial electromyography to detect preserved emotional processing in disorders of consciousness: A proof-of-principle study. Chris M.Fiacconi, Adrian M.Owen. Clinical Neurophysiology, Volume 127, Issue 9, September 2016, Pages 3000-3006. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/despite-being-in-vegetative-state-some.html

Twitter versus Facebook: Comparing incivility, impoliteness, and deliberative attributes

Twitter versus Facebook: Comparing incivility, impoliteness, and deliberative attributes. Mustafa Oz, Pei Zheng, Gina Masullo Chen. New Media & Society, December 31 2017, https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444817749516

Abstract: Using two quantitative methods, this study sought to understand whether user-generated posts would vary in frequency of incivility, impoliteness, and deliberative attributes on Twitter versus Facebook. A quantitative content analysis (N = 1458) revealed that posts responding to the White House’s tweets were significantly more uncivil and impolite and less deliberative than responses to White House Facebook posts. Also, comments on posts that concerned sensitive topics (such as same-sex marriage) were more uncivil, impolite, and deliberative than comments regarding less sensitive topics (such as technology). An experiment (N = 198) showed that people were more deliberative when responding to White House Facebook posts, compared with White House tweets, but no differences were found for incivility and impoliteness. Results suggest that both the varying affordances of the two platforms and the fact that the two sites may attract different types of people might explain these results.

Keywords: Impoliteness, incivility, public deliberation, social media

Gender Differences in Emotion Explain Women’s Lower Immoral Intentions and Harsher Moral Condemnation

Gender Differences in Emotion Explain Women’s Lower Immoral Intentions and Harsher Moral Condemnation. Sarah J. Ward, Laura A. King. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, January 1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167217744525

Abstract: Why do men view morally questionable behaviors as more permissible than women do? Five studies investigated emotional factors as explanations for gender differences in moral decision-making. In Study 1 (N = 324), gender differences in perceptions of moral wrongness were explained by guilt and shame proneness. Studies 2a and 2b (combined N = 562) demonstrated that instructions to adopt an unemotional perspective (vs. standard instructions) led women to have higher immoral intentions, no longer lower than men’s, as they were in the control group. Studies 3 and 4 (N = 834) showed that men expected immoral actions to result in higher positive and lower self-conscious moral emotions than women do. Study 4 (N = 424) showed that these emotional expectancies account for gender differences in immoral intentions. Study 5 (N = 450) showed that women—but not men—experience heightened self-conscious moral emotions and regret when recalling past transgressions done for personal gain.

Keywords: gender, morality, emotion, moral emotions

Despite the compelling subjective experience of executive self-control, we argue that “consciousness” contains no top-down control processes and that “consciousness” involves no executive, causal, or controlling relationship with any of the familiar psychological processes conventionally attributed to it. The experience of consciousness is a passive accompaniment to the non-conscious processes of internal broadcasting and the creation of the personal narrative. Though it is an end-product created by non-conscious executive systems, the personal narrative serves the powerful evolutionary function of enabling individuals to communicate (externally broadcast) the contents of internal broadcasting.

Chasing the Rainbow: The Non-conscious Nature of Being. David A. Oakley and Peter W. Halligan. Front. Psychol., November 14 2017. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01924

Abstract: Despite the compelling subjective experience of executive self-control, we argue that “consciousness” contains no top-down control processes and that “consciousness” involves no executive, causal, or controlling relationship with any of the familiar psychological processes conventionally attributed to it. In our view, psychological processing and psychological products are not under the control of consciousness. In particular, we argue that all “contents of consciousness” are generated by and within non-conscious brain systems in the form of a continuous self-referential personal narrative that is not directed or influenced in any way by the “experience of consciousness.” This continuously updated personal narrative arises from selective “internal broadcasting” of outputs from non-conscious executive systems that have access to all forms of cognitive processing, sensory information, and motor control. The personal narrative provides information for storage in autobiographical memory and is underpinned by constructs of self and agency, also created in non-conscious systems. The experience of consciousness is a passive accompaniment to the non-conscious processes of internal broadcasting and the creation of the personal narrative. In this sense, personal awareness is analogous to the rainbow which accompanies physical processes in the atmosphere but exerts no influence over them. Though it is an end-product created by non-conscious executive systems, the personal narrative serves the powerful evolutionary function of enabling individuals to communicate (externally broadcast) the contents of internal broadcasting. This in turn allows recipients to generate potentially adaptive strategies, such as predicting the behavior of others and underlies the development of social and cultural structures, that promote species survival. Consequently, it is the capacity to communicate to others the contents of the personal narrative that confers an evolutionary advantage—not the experience of consciousness (personal awareness) itself.

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What if consciousness is not what drives the human mind? David A Oakley & Peter Halligan
November 22, 2017 10.08am GMT
https://dailyaccord.com/consciousness-not-drives-human-mind/

[links removed, check the original link at the Daily Accord]

Everyone knows what it feels like to have consciousness: it’s that self-evident sense of personal awareness, which gives us a feeling of ownership and control over the thoughts, emotions and experiences that we have every day.

Most experts think that consciousness can be divided into two parts: the experience of consciousness (or personal awareness), and the contents of consciousness, which include things such as thoughts, beliefs, sensations, perceptions, intentions, memories and emotions.

It’s easy to assume that these contents of consciousness are somehow chosen, caused or controlled by our personal awareness – after all, thoughts don’t exist until until we think them. But in a new research paper in Frontiers of Psychology, we argue that this is a mistake.

We suggest that our personal awareness does not create, cause or choose our beliefs, feelings or perceptions. Instead, the contents of consciousness are generated “behind the scenes” by fast, efficient, non-conscious systems in our brains. All this happens without any interference from our personal awareness, which sits passively in the passenger seat while these processes occur.

Put simply, we don’t consciously choose our thoughts or our feelings – we become aware of them.


Not just a suggestion

If this sounds strange, consider how effortlessly we regain consciousness each morning after losing it the night before; how thoughts and emotions – welcome or otherwise – arrive already formed in our minds; how the colours and shapes we see are constructed into meaningful objects or memorable faces without any effort or input from our conscious mind.

Consider that all the neuropsychological processes responsible for moving your body or using words to form sentences take place without involving your personal awareness. We believe that the processes responsible for generating the contents of consciousness do the same.

Our thinking has been influenced by research into neuropsychological and neuropsychiatric disorders, as well as more recent cognitive neuroscience studies using hypnosis. The studies using hypnosis show that a person’s mood, thoughts and perceptions can be profoundly altered by suggestion.

In such studies, participants go through a hypnosis induction procedure, to help them to enter a mentally focused and absorbed state. Then, suggestions are made to change their perceptions and experiences.

For example, in one study, researchers recorded the brain activity of participants when they raised their arm intentionally, when it was lifted by a pulley, and when it moved in response to a hypnotic suggestion that it was being lifted by a pulley.

Similar areas of the brain were active during the involuntary and the suggested “alien” movement, while brain activity for the intentional action was different. So, hypnotic suggestion can be seen as a means of communicating an idea or belief that, when accepted, has the power to alter a person’s perceptions or behaviour.


The personal narrative

All this may leave one wondering where our thoughts, emotions and perceptions actually come from. We argue that the contents of consciousness are a subset of the experiences, emotions, thoughts and beliefs that are generated by non-conscious processes within our brains.

This subset takes the form of a personal narrative, which is constantly being updated. The personal narrative exists in parallel with our personal awareness, but the latter has no influence over the former.

The personal narrative is important because it provides information to be stored in your autobiographical memory (the story you tell yourself, about yourself), and gives human beings a way of communicating the things we have perceived and experienced to others.

This, in turn, allows us to generate survival strategies; for example, by learning to predict other people’s behaviour. Interpersonal skills like this underpin the development of social and cultural structures, which have promoted the survival of human kind for millennia.

So, we argue that it is the ability to communicate the contents of one’s personal narrative –– and not personal awareness – that gives humans their unique evolutionary advantage.


What’s the point?

If the experience of consciousness does not confer any particular advantage, it’s not clear what its purpose is. But as a passive accompaniment to non-conscious processes, we don’t think that the phenomenon of personal awareness has a purpose, in much the same way that rainbows do not. Rainbows simply result from the reflection, refraction and dispersion of sunlight through water droplets – none of which serves any particular purpose.

Our conclusions also raise questions about the notions of free will and personal responsibility. If our personal awareness does not control the contents of the personal narrative which reflects our thoughts, feelings, emotions, actions and decisions, then perhaps we should not be held responsible for them.

In response to this, we argue that free will and personal responsibility are notions that have been constructed by society. As such, they are built into the way we see and understand ourselves as individuals, and as a species. Because of this, they are represented within the non-conscious processes that create our personal narratives, and in the way we communicate those narratives to others.

Just because consciousness has been placed in the passenger seat, does not mean we need to dispense with important everyday notions such as free will and personal responsibility. In fact, they are embedded in the workings of our non-conscious brain systems. They have a powerful purpose in society and have a deep impact on the way we understand ourselves.

David A Oakley, Emeritus Professor of Psychology, UCL and Peter Halligan, Hon Professor of Neuropsychology, Cardiff University

Bayesian Occam's razor: People's judgments penalize hypotheses as a function not only of their numbers of free parameters but also as a function of the size of the parameter space, and they penalize those hypotheses even when their parameters can be “tuned” to fit the data better than comparatively simpler hypotheses

Blanchard, T., Lombrozo, T. and Nichols, S. (2017), Bayesian Occam's Razor Is a Razor of the People. Cogn Sci. doi:10.1111/cogs.12573

Abstract: Occam's razor—the idea that all else being equal, we should pick the simpler hypothesis—plays a prominent role in ordinary and scientific inference. But why are simpler hypotheses better? One attractive hypothesis known as Bayesian Occam's razor (BOR) is that more complex hypotheses tend to be more flexible—they can accommodate a wider range of possible data—and that flexibility is automatically penalized by Bayesian inference. In two experiments, we provide evidence that people's intuitive probabilistic and explanatory judgments follow the prescriptions of BOR. In particular, people's judgments are consistent with the two most distinctive characteristics of BOR: They penalize hypotheses as a function not only of their numbers of free parameters but also as a function of the size of the parameter space, and they penalize those hypotheses even when their parameters can be “tuned” to fit the data better than comparatively simpler hypotheses.

Through employing more than 3000 workers, usage of Corporate Social Responsibility increases employee misbehavior — 20% more employees act detrimentally toward our firm by shirking on their primary job duty

When Corporate Social Responsibility Backfires: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment. John A. List, Fatemeh Momeni. NBER Working Paper No. 24169. www.nber.org/papers/w24169

Abstract: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has become a cornerstone of modern business practice, developing from a “why” in the 1960s to a “must” today. Early empirical evidence on both the demand and supply sides has largely confirmed CSR's efficacy. This paper combines theory with a large-scale natural field experiment to connect CSR to an important but often neglected behavior: employee misconduct and shirking. Through employing more than 3000 workers, we find that our usage of CSR increases employee misbehavior — 20% more employees act detrimentally toward our firm by shirking on their primary job duty when we introduce CSR. Complementary treatments suggest that “moral licensing” is at work, in that the “doing good” nature of CSR induces workers to misbehave on another dimension that hurts the firm. In this way, our data highlight a potential dark cloud of CSR, and serve to forewarn that such business practices should not be blindly applied.

Updated: Income Inequality in the United States: Using Tax Data to Measure Long-term Trends

Income Inequality in the United States: Using Tax Data to Measure Long-term Trends. Gerald Auten, David Splinter. November 12, 2017. http://davidsplinter.com/AutenSplinter-Tax_Data_and_Inequality.pdf

Abstract: Previous studies using U.S. tax return data, such as Piketty and Saez (2003), concluded that top one percent income shares increased substantially since 1960. But tax return based measures are biased by tax base changes and missing income sources. Accounting for these limitations reduces the increase in top one percent income shares by two-thirds. Further, accounting for government transfers reduces the increase over 80 percent. After-tax income results are similar. This shows that unadjusted tax return based measures present a distorted view of inequality because incomes reported on tax returns are sensitive to tax law changes and omit significant income sources.

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Update to Using Tax Data to Measure Long-Term Trends in U.S. Income Inequality. Gerald Auten and David Splinter. Draft Paper, Annual Conference, ASSA Annual Meeting, 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/using-tax-data-to-measure-long-term.html

Using deep learning and Google Street View to estimate the demographic makeup of neighborhoods across the United States

Using deep learning and Google Street View to estimate the demographic makeup of neighborhoods across the United States. Timnit Gebru et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114 no. 50. http://www.pnas.org/content/114/50/13108.abstract

Significance: We show that socioeconomic attributes such as income, race, education, and voting patterns can be inferred from cars detected in Google Street View images using deep learning. Our model works by discovering associations between cars and people. For example, if the number of sedans in a city is higher than the number of pickup trucks, that city is likely to vote for a Democrat in the next presidential election (88% chance); if not, then the city is likely to vote for a Republican (82% chance).

Abstract: The United States spends more than $250 million each year on the American Community Survey (ACS), a labor-intensive door-to-door study that measures statistics relating to race, gender, education, occupation, unemployment, and other demographic factors. Although a comprehensive source of data, the lag between demographic changes and their appearance in the ACS can exceed several years. As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may become an increasingly practical supplement to the ACS. Here, we present a method that estimates socioeconomic characteristics of regions spanning 200 US cities by using 50 million images of street scenes gathered with Google Street View cars. Using deep learning-based computer vision techniques, we determined the make, model, and year of all motor vehicles encountered in particular neighborhoods. Data from this census of motor vehicles, which enumerated 22 million automobiles in total (8% of all automobiles in the United States), were used to accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns at the zip code and precinct level. (The average US precinct contains ∼1,000 people.) The resulting associations are surprisingly simple and powerful. For instance, if the number of sedans encountered during a drive through a city is higher than the number of pickup trucks, the city is likely to vote for a Democrat during the next presidential election (88% chance); otherwise, it is likely to vote Republican (82%). Our results suggest that automated systems for monitoring demographics may effectively complement labor-intensive approaches, with the potential to measure demographics with fine spatial resolution, in close to real time.

Closing Your Eyes to Follow Your Heart: Avoiding Information to Protect a Strong Intuitive Preference

Closing Your Eyes to Follow Your Heart: Avoiding Information to Protect a Strong Intuitive Preference. Woolley, Kaitlin, and Risen, Jane L. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Dec 18 , 2017, http://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fpspa0000100

Abstract: Rationally, people should want to receive information that is costless and relevant for a decision. But people sometimes choose to remain ignorant. The current paper identifies intuitive-deliberative conflict as a driver of information avoidance. Moreover, we examine whether people avoid information not only to protect their feelings or experiences, but also to protect the decision itself. We predict that people avoid information that could encourage a more thoughtful, deliberative decision to make it easier to enact their intuitive preference. In Studies 1 and 2, people avoid learning the calories in a tempting dessert and compensation for a boring task to protect their preferences to eat the dessert and work on a more enjoyable task. The same people who want to avoid the information, however, use it when it is provided. In Studies 3–5, people decide whether to learn how much money they could earn by accepting an intuitively unappealing bet (that a sympathetic student performs poorly or that a hurricane hits a third-world country). Although intuitively unappealing, the bets are financially rational because they only have financial upside. If people avoid information in part to protect their intuitive preference, then avoidance should be greater when an intuitive preference is especially strong and when information could influence the decision. As predicted, avoidance is driven by the strength of the intuitive preference (Study 3) and, ironically, information avoidance is greater before a decision is made, when the information is decision relevant, than after, when the information is irrelevant for the decision (Studies 4 and 5).

Personality, IQ, and Lifetime Earnings: The payoffs to personality traits display a concave life-cycle pattern, with the largest effects between the ages of 40 and 60

Personality, IQ, and Lifetime Earnings. Miriam Gensowski. Labour Economics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.12.004

Highlights
•    This paper estimates the effects of personality traits and IQ on lifetime earnings, both as a sum and individually by age.
•    The payoffs to personality traits display a concave life-cycle pattern, with the largest effects between the ages of 40 and 60.
•    The largest effects on earnings are found for Conscientiousness, Extraversion, and Agreeableness (negative).
•    An interaction of traits with education reveals that personality matters most for highly educated men.
•    The overall effect of Conscientiousness operates partly through education, which also has significant returns.

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of personality traits and IQ on lifetime earnings of the men and women of the Terman study, a high-IQ U.S. sample. Age-by-age earnings profiles allow a study of when personality traits affect earnings most, and for whom the effects are strongest. I document a concave life-cycle pattern in the payoffs to personality traits, with the largest effects between the ages of 40 and 60. An interaction of traits with education reveals that personality matters most for highly educated men. The largest effects are found for Conscientiousness, Extraversion, and Agreeableness (negative), where Conscientiousness operates partly through education, which also has significant returns.

Keywords: Personality traits; Socio-emotional skills; Cognitive skills; Returns to education; Lifetime earnings; Big Five; Human capital; Factor analysis

Liars failed to simulate the truthtellers' pattern of forgetting & reported similar amounts of detail when interviewed without or after a delay, demonstrating a stability bias in reporting

A stability bias effect among deceivers. Harvey, Adam Charles, Vrij, Aldert, Hope, Lorraine, Leal, Sharon, and Mann, Samantha. Law and Human Behavior, Vol 41(6), Dec 2017, 519-529. http://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Flhb0000258

Abstract: Research examining how truth tellers’ and liars’ verbal behavior is attenuated as a function of delay is largely absent from the literature, despite its important applied value. We examined this factor across 2 studies in which we examined the effects of a hypothetical delay (Experiment 1) or actual delay (Experiment 2) on liars’ accounts. In Experiment 1—an insurance claim interview setting—claimants either genuinely experienced a (staged) loss of a tablet device (n = 40) or pretended to have experienced the same loss (n = 40). Truth tellers were interviewed either immediately after the loss (n = 20) or 3 weeks after the loss (n = 20), whereas liars had to either pretend the loss occurred either immediately before (n = 20) or 3 weeks before (n = 20) the interview (i.e., hypothetical delay for liars). In Experiment 2—a Human Intelligence gathering setting—sources had to either lie (n = 50) or tell the truth (n = 50) about a secret video they had seen concerning the placing of a spy device. Half of the truth tellers and liars where interviewed immediately after watching the video (n = 50), and half where interviewed 3-weeks later (n = 50; i.e., real delay for liars). Across both experiments, truth tellers interviewed after a delay reported fewer details than truth tellers interviewed immediately after the to-be-remembered event. In both studies, liars failed to simulate this pattern of forgetting and reported similar amounts of detail when interviewed without or after a delay, demonstrating a stability bias in reporting.

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty

Cui, J., Rosoff, H. and John, R. S. (2017), Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty. Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.12920

Abstract: Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next.

KEYWORDS: Causal attribution; near-miss; nuclear power; risk perception; structural equation modeling

Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing?

Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing? Sanchez, Carmen, and Dunning, David. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Nov 02 , 2017, http://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fpspa0000102

Abstract: Across 6 studies we investigated the development of overconfidence among beginners. In 4 of the studies, participants completed multicue probabilistic learning tasks (e.g., learning to diagnose “zombie diseases” from physical symptoms). Although beginners did not start out overconfident in their judgments, they rapidly surged to a “beginner’s bubble” of overconfidence. This bubble was traced to exuberant and error-filled theorizing about how to approach the task formed after just a few learning experiences. Later trials challenged and refined those theories, leading to a temporary leveling off of confidence while performance incrementally improved, although confidence began to rise again after this pause. In 2 additional studies we found a real-world echo of this pattern of overconfidence across the life course. Self-ratings of financial literacy surged among young adults, then leveled off among older respondents until late adulthood, where it begins to rise again, with actual financial knowledge all the while rising more slowly, consistently, and incrementally throughout adulthood. Hence, when it comes to overconfident judgment, a little learning does appear to be a dangerous thing. Although beginners start with humble self-perceptions, with just a little experience their confidence races ahead of their actual performance.