A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper: 23/25 is less than 1, not more

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper. Nicholas Lewis. Nov 7 2018. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/A-major-problem-with-the-Resplandy-et-al.-ocean-heat-uptake-paper.pdf

[Update Sep 26 2019: Paper was retracted at the journal's request. Check at the end.]

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Excerpts:

On November 1st there was extensive coverage in the mainstream media1 and online2 of a paper just published in the prestigious journal Nature. The article,3 by Laure Resplandy of Princeton University, Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography and eight other authors, used a novel method to estimate heat uptake by the ocean over the period 1991–2016 and came up with an atypically high value.4 The press release 5 accompanying the Resplandy et al. paper was entitled "Earth's oceans have absorbed 60 percent more heat per year than previously thought",6 and said that this suggested that Earth is more sensitive to fossil-fuel emissions than previously thought.

I was asked for my thoughts on the Resplandy paper as soon as it obtained media coverage. Most commentators appear to have been content to rely on what was said in the press release. However, being a scientist, I thought it appropriate to read the paper itself, and if possible look at its data, before forming a view.


Trend estimates

The method used by Resplandy et al. was novel, and certainly worthy of publication. The authors start with observed changes in 'atmospheric potential oxygen' (ΔAPOOBS).7 In their model, one component of this change (ΔAPOClimate) is due to warming of the oceans, and they derived an estimate of its value by calculating values for the other components.8 A simple conversion factor then allows them to convert the trend in ΔAPOClimate into an estimate of ocean heat uptake (the trend in ocean heat content).

On page 1 they say:

                   From equation (1), we thereby find that ΔAPOClimate = 23.20 ± 12.20 per meg, corresponding to a least squares linear trend of +1.16 ± 0.15 per meg per year 9

A quick bit of mental arithmetic indicated that a change of 23.2 between 1991 and 2016 represented an annual rate of approximately 0.9, well below their 1.16 value. As that seemed surprising, I extracted the annual ΔAPO best-estimate values and uncertainties from the paper's Extended Data Table 410 and computed the 1991–2016 least squares linear fit trend in the ΔAPOClimate values. The trend was 0.88, not 1.16, per meg per year, implying an ocean heat uptake estimate of 10.1 ZJ per year,11 well below the estimate in the paper of 13.3 ZJ per year.12

Resplandy et al. derive ΔAPOClimate from estimates of ΔAPOOBS and of its other components, ΔAPOFF, ΔAPOCant, and ΔAPOAtmD, using – rearranging their equation (1):

            ΔAPOClimate = ΔAPOOBS − ΔAPOFF − ΔAPOCant − ΔAPOAtmD

I derived the same best estimate trend when I allowed for uncertainty in each of the components of ΔAPOOBS, in the way that Resplandy et al.'s Methods description appears to indicate,13 so my simple initial method of trend estimation does not explain the discrepancy.

[...]

I wanted to make sure that I had not overlooked something in my calculations, so later on November 1st I emailed Laure Resplandy querying the ΔAPOClimate trend figure in her paper and asking for her to look into the difference in our trend estimates as a matter of urgency, explaining that in view of the media coverage of the paper I was contemplating web-publishing a comment on it within a matter of days. To date I have had no substantive response from her, despite subsequently sending a further email containing the key analysis sections from a draft of this article.

[...]

Uncertainty analysis

I now turn to the uncertainty analysis in the paper.16 Strangely, the Resplandy et al. paper has two different values for the uncertainty in the results. On page 1 they give the ΔAPOClimate trend (in per meg per year) as 1.16 ± 0.15. But on page 2 they say it is 1.16 ± 0.18. In the Methods section they go back to 1.16 ± 0.15. Probably the ± 0.18 figure is a typographical error. 17

It is amazing, uncertainty in page 1 is 0.15, then in page two is 0.18.

And 23.20/26 = 1.16 (?!?!?!).

Ten authors and at least two reviewers see nothing... Is there not a single journalist able to read the first page of a paper?


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Notes:

1 Examples are: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46046067 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/31/climate/ocean-temperatures-hotter.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-oceans-are-heating-up-faster-than-expected/ https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/01/australia/ocean-warming-report-intl/index.html http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-oceans-study-climate-change-20181031-story.html https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/11/01/oceans-more-heat-study-global-warming-climate-change-nature/1843074002/ https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-ocean-temperature-heat-fossil-fuels-science-research-a8612796.html
2 Examples are: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/11/unforced-variations-nov-2018/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/02/friday-funny-at-long-last-kevin-trenberths-missing-heat-may-have-been-found-repeat-may-have-been/ https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/that-new-ocean-heat-content-estimate/ https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/11/03/new-ocean-heat-content-analysis/ https://twitter.com/Knutti_ETH/status/1057960390502608901
3 L. Resplandy, R. F. Keeling, Y. Eddebbar, M. K. Brooks, R. Wang, L. Bopp, M. C. Long, J. P. Dunne, W. Koeve & A. Oschlies, 2018: Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition. Nature, 563, 105-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0651-8 ("Resplandy et al.")
4 A value of 13.3 zetta Joules (ZJ) per year, or 0.83 Watts per square metre of the Earth's surface. ZJ is the symbol for zetta Joules; 1 ZJ = 1021 J. 1 ZJ per year = 0.0621 Watts per square metre (W/m2 or Wm–2) of the Earth's surface.
5 http://web.archive.org/web/20181103021900/https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/11/01/earths-oceans-have-absorbed-60-percent-more-heat-year-previously-thought
6 However that is in comparison with an IPCC estimate for 1993–2010; estimates for 1991–2016 are higher.
7 ΔAPO is the change in 'atmospheric potential oxygen', the overall level of which has been observationally measured since 1991 (ΔAPOOBS). It is the sum of the atmospheric concentrations of O2 and of CO2 weighted respectively 1⤬ and 1.1⤬.
8 The authors break the observed change in ΔAPOOBS into four components, ΔAPOFF, ΔAPOCant, ΔAPOAtmD and ΔAPOClimate, deriving the last component (which is related to ocean warming) by deducting estimates of the other three components from ΔAPOOBS. ΔAPOFF is the decrease in APO caused by industrial processes (fossil-fuel burning and cement production). ΔAPOCant accounts for the oceanic uptake of excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2. ΔAPOAtmD accounts for air–sea exchanges driven by ocean fertilization from anthropogenic aerosol deposition.
9 1 per meg literally means 1 part per million (1 ppm), however 'per meg' and 'ppm' are defined differently in relation to atmospheric concentrations and are not identical units.
10 The same data is available in Excel format from a link on Nature's website, as "Source Data Fig. 2".
11 Dividing by their conversion factor of 0.087 ± 0.003 per meg per ZJ. ZJ is the symbol for zetta Joules; 1 ZJ = 1021 Joules.
12 I used ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with an intercept. That is the standard form of least squares regression for estimating a trend. Resplandy et al. show all APO variables as changes from a baseline of zero in 1991, but that is an arbitrary choice and would not justify forcing the regression fit to be zero in 1991 (by not using an intercept term). Doing so would not in any event raise the ΔAPOClimate estimated trend to the level given by Resplandy et al.
13 I took a large number of sets of samples for each of the years 1991 to 2016 from the applicable error distributions of ΔAPOOBS, ΔAPOFF, ΔAPOCant, and ΔAPOAtmD given in Extended Data Table 4, and calculated all the corresponding sample values of ΔAPOClimate using equation (1). I then computed the ordinary least squares linear trend for each set of 1991–2016 sampled values of ΔAPOClimate, and calculated the mean and standard deviation of the trends.
14 Laure Resplandy was responsible for directing the analysis of the datasets and models.
15 This fact was spotted by Frank Bosse, with whom I discussed the apparent error in the Resplandy et al. ΔAPOClimate trend.
16 All uncertainty values in the paper are ± 1 sigma (1 standard deviation). Errors are presumably assumed to be Normally distributed, as no other distributions are specified.
17 The statement in their Methods that "ΔCant′ cannot be derived from observations and was estimated at 0.05 Pg C yr−1, equivalent to a trend of +0.2 per meg−1, using model simulations" is presumably also a typographical error. The correct value appears to be +0.12 per meg yr−1, as stated elsewhere in Methods and in Extended Data Table 3.
18 On that basis , I can replicate the Extended Data Table 4 ΔAPOOBS uncertainty time series values within ±0.1. Note that all the values in that table, although given to two decimal places, appear to be rounded to one decimal place.
19 The overall uncertainties given in Table 3 in Resplandy et al.'s source paper for its errors in ΔAPOOBS support my analysis.
20 When using the Resplandy et al. Extended Data Table 4 ΔAPOClimate total uncertainty time series and assuming that each year's errors are independent, despite the trend and scale systematic errors being their largest component, the estimated ΔAPOClimate uncertainty reduces to between ± 0.20 and ± 0.21 per meg yr−1. That is still slightly higher than the ± 0.15 and ± 0.18 per meg yr−1 values given in the paper. The reason for the small remaining difference is unclear.
21 It seems likely that the same non-independence over time issue largely or wholly applies to errors in ΔAPOCant, ΔAPOAtmD and probably ΔAPOFF. If the errors in ΔAPOCant and ΔAPOAtmD (but not in ΔAPOFF)
were also treated as perfectly correlated between years, the ΔAPOClimate trend uncertainty would be ± 0.60 per meg yr−1.
22 Lewis, N., and Curry, J., 2018: The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 31(15), 6051-6071.
23 Even if the 2007–2016 ocean heat uptake estimate used in Lewis and Curry (2018) were increased by 3 ZJ yr−1 to match Resplandy et al.'s (incorrect) estimate for 1991–2016, the 1.05°C 5% lower bound of its HadCRUT4v5-based estimate of effective/equilibrium climate sensitivity would only increase to 1.15°C. Moreover, Resplandy et al.'s ΔAPOClimate data imply have a lower ocean heat uptake estimate for 2007–2016 than they do for 1991–2016.
24 See the IPCC's 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C


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Update Sep 26 2019: Paper was retracted at the journal's request.

Retraction Note: Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition. L. Resplandy et al. Nature 573, 614 (2019). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1585-5

State AGs for Rent: Privately funded litigators wield state police power

State AGs for Rent: Privately funded litigators wield state police power. Wall Street Journal, Nov 7 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-ags-for-rent-1541549567

With the courts and Trump Administration rolling back federal climate regulation, green activists have turned to the states. But there’s a troubling ethical twist: Instead of merely lobbying, activists are placing employees in Attorneys General offices in dubious private-public condominiums.

Consider a remarkable arrangement brokered by the NYU Law School’s State Energy and Environmental Impact Center to fund legal services for state AGs. The group was launched in August 2017 to advance a liberal climate and energy agenda, courtesy of a $6 million grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies, which also financed the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign.

In August 2017 the NYU outfit emailed then-New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office, offering to cover the salary and benefits of “special assistant attorneys general,” pending an application from the office that demonstrated how the new attorneys would be used. These privately funded staffers would work out of an AG’s office for two years and deliver quarterly progress reports to the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center.

Those progress reports would explain “the contribution that the legal fellow has made to the clean energy, climate change, and environmental initiatives” within the attorney general’s office, according to a December 2017 draft of an agreement between the Center and the New York AG obtained by Chris Horner of the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Attorneys General do sometimes bring on legal fellows or outside help to handle unique cases. But subject-matter experts aren’t in-house or chosen with specific intent to promote specific policies, according to Randy Pepple, who was chief of staff for former Washington Republican AG Rob McKenna. In the New York case, a special interest is funding staffers who could wield state law-enforcement power to punish opponents.

The State Energy and Environmental Impact Center made clear that state AG offices would only qualify for special assistant AGs if they “demonstrate a need and commitment to defending environmental values and advancing progressive clean energy, climate change, and environmental legal positions,” according to the August 2017 email to numerous AGs. Mr. Schneiderman’s office suggested in its application for the fellows that it “needs additional attorney resources to assist” in extracting compensation from fossil-fuel emitters.

That’s exactly what’s happening. The New York AG currently has two NYU fellows on staff, according to the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center.

One of the fellows, Gavin McCabe, signed off as “special assistant attorney general” on an amicus brief in June in support of New York City’s suit for damages against BP, Chevron , ConocoPhillips , Exxon Mobil , and Royal Dutch Shell for alleged climate sins. That case was thrown out in July by federal Judge John Kennan on grounds that problems arising from climate change “are not for the judiciary to ameliorate.”

The other, Matthew Eisenson, signed New York state’s suit filed last month against Exxon for allegedly misleading investors about the risks that climate-change regulations pose to its business. The free help will also make for welcome reinforcements in New York-led litigation against the Trump Administration, including a suit against the EPA for its methane regulation.

A lack of government transparency makes this arrangement especially troubling. The New York AG’s office, now run by Acting AG Barbara Underwood, declined to comment. Mr. McCabe and Mr. Eisenson could not be reached for comment by our deadline.

The State Energy and Environmental Impact Center said in a statement that the state offices it works with “has the authority consistent with applicable law and regulations to accept a Legal Fellow whose salary and benefits are provided by an outside funding source.” It added that it places workers with AGs who already have a long history of advancing the center’s energy priorities. “The work that NYU law fellows perform is directed by those AGs and not by the Center,” the Center said.

At least six state AG offices have already brought on board a special assistant attorney general, according to an August report by Mr. Horner. Besides New York, the jurisdictions include Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington and the District of Columbia. In September, Mr. Horner learned that Illinois and New Mexico have brought on special assistant AGs as well, which was confirmed by the NYU outfit.

The ethical problems here should be obvious. Private interests are leveraging the police powers of the state to pursue their political agenda, while a government official is letting private interests appear to influence enforcement decisions. None of this is reassuring about the fair administration of justice.

Successful social interaction is critically dependent on a core set of highly connected hubs that dynamically accumulate & integrate complex social information & facilitate social tuning

How Dynamic Brain Networks Tune Social Behavior in Real Time. Brian Silston, Danielle S. Bassett, Dean Mobbs. Current Directions in Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721418773362

Abstract: During social interaction, the brain has the enormous task of interpreting signals that are fleeting, subtle, contextual, abstract, and often ambiguous. Despite the signal complexity, the human brain has evolved to be highly successful in the social landscape. Here, we propose that the human brain makes sense of noisy dynamic signals through accumulation, integration, and prediction, resulting in a coherent representation of the social world. We propose that successful social interaction is critically dependent on a core set of highly connected hubs that dynamically accumulate and integrate complex social information and, in doing so, facilitate social tuning during moment-to-moment social discourse. Successful interactions, therefore, require adaptive flexibility generated by neural circuits composed of highly integrated hubs that coordinate context-appropriate responses. Adaptive properties of the neural substrate, including predictive and adaptive coding, and neural reuse, along with perceptual, inferential, and motivational inputs, provide the ingredients for pliable, hierarchical predictive models that guide our social interactions.

Keywords: dynamic-integration theory, adaptive flexibility, temporal dynamics, social interaction, prediction

Uncovering the Neuroanatomy of Core Language Systems Using Lesion-Symptom Mapping

Uncovering the Neuroanatomy of Core Language Systems Using Lesion-Symptom Mapping. Daniel Mirman, Melissa Thye. Current Directions in Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721418787486

Abstract: Recent studies have integrated noninvasive brain-imaging methods and advanced analysis techniques to study associations between the location of brain damage and cognitive deficits. By applying data-driven analysis methods to large sets of data on language deficits after stroke (aphasia), these studies have identified the cognitive systems that support language processing—phonology, semantics, fluency, and executive functioning—and their neural basis. Phonological processing is supported by dual pathways around the Sylvian fissure, a ventral speech-recognition component and a dorsal speech-production component; fluent sentence-level speech production relies on a more anterior frontal component, and the semantic system relies on a hub in the anterior temporal lobe and frontotemporal white-matter tracts. The executive function system was less consistently localized, possibly because of the kinds of brain damage tested in these studies. This review synthesizes the results of these studies, showing how they converge with contemporary models of primary systems that support perception, action, and conceptual knowledge across domains, and highlights some divergent findings and directions for future research.

Keywords: language, speech, aphasia, neuroimaging, neuropsychology

We are now looking more closely at the conditions in which we fail to judge time accurately & why, with the aim of testing the limits of a potential internal clock & time distortions (i.e., caused by emotion)

Intertwined Facets of Subjective Time. Sylvie Droit-Volet. Current Directions in Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721418779978

Abstract: For decades, researchers in the behavioral sciences have studied how humans judge time accurately. Now they are looking more closely at the conditions in which they fail to do so and why, with the aim of testing the limits of a potential internal timing system (i.e., an internal clock). Recent behavioral studies have thus focused on time distortions, in particular those caused by emotion. They have also begun to examine the awareness of the passage of time and its relation with the perception of durations in different temporal ranges, from a few seconds to several minutes.

Keywords: timing, time, emotion, self, awareness

Children's drawing ability is more strongly determined by genes than by the family environment or deliberate practice

Drawing as a Window Onto Expertise. Rebecca Chamberlain. Current Directions in Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721418797301

Abstract: The ability to draw is a uniquely human activity, ubiquitous in childhood but seldom performed at expert levels in adulthood. Relative to other domains of expertise (chess, music, sport), drawing is understudied, and yet because it is a universal developmental ability mastered by so few, it provides an ideal test bed for competing theories of expertise. In this review, three strands of active research and debate in the field of expertise will be considered in relation to representational drawing ability: (a) the characterization of expertise in relation to altered visual attention and memory, (b) the relative roles of personality traits and cognitive abilities, and (c) the interaction between genes and environment in the development of expertise. The study of representational drawing sheds new light on these three strands and provides rich avenues for further research in this domain.

Keywords: expertise, drawing, individual differences, attention, visual memory

Memory experts’ beliefs about repressed memory: Significantly more sceptical about repressed memory compared to practitioners, students and the public

Memory experts’ beliefs about repressed memory. Lawrence Patihis, Lavina Y. Ho, Elizabeth F. Loftus & Mario E. Herrera. Memory, https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2018.1532521

ABSTRACT: What we believe about how memory works affects the decisions we make in many aspects of life. In Patihis, Ho et al. [Patihis, L., Ho, L. Y., Tingen, I. W., Lilienfeld, S. O., & Loftus, E. F. (2014). Are the “memory wars” over? A scientist–practitioner gap in beliefs about repressed memory. Psychological Science, 25, 519–530.], we documented several group's beliefs on repressed memories and other aspects of how memory works. Here, we present previously unreported data on the beliefs of perhaps the most credible minority in our dataset: memory experts. We provide the statistics and written responses of the beliefs for 17 memory experts. Although memory experts held similarly sceptical beliefs about repressed memory as other research-focused groups, they were significantly more sceptical about repressed memory compared to practitioners, students and the public. Although a minority of memory experts wrote that they maintained an open mind about repressed memories – citing research such as retrieval inhibition – all of the memory experts emphasised the dangers of memory distortion.

KEYWORDS: Memory beliefs, repressed memory, memory experts, clinical psychology, law

In a mobbing game, subjects frequently coordinate on selecting a victim, even for modest gains; higher gains make mobbing more likely; no evidence that fear of becoming the victim explains mobbing; ingroup members are less likely to be victims

How To Choose Your Victim. Klaus Abbink, Gönül Doğan. Games and Economic Behavior, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2018.10.006

Abstract: We introduce the experimental mobbing game. Each player in a group has the option to nominate one of the other players or to nominate no one. If the same person is nominated by all other players, he loses his payoff and the mob gains. We conduct three sets of experiments to study the effects of monetary gains, fear of being mobbed, and different types of focality. In the repeated mobbing game, we find that subjects frequently coordinate on selecting a victim, even for modest gains. Higher gains make mobbing more likely. We find no evidence that fear of becoming the victim explains mobbing. Richer and poorer players are equally focal. Pity plays no role in mobbing decisions. Ingroup members – introduced by colours – are less likely to be victims, and both payoff difference and colour difference serve as strong coordination devices. Commonly employed social preference theories do not explain our findings.


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The labels [M,T, G, P] are also a hidden homage to the inmates Mather, Travers, Greenhill and Pearce, who escaped from a Tasmanian prison camp in a group of eight in 1822, only to get lost in the forest. When food ran out, the four conspired to apply the Custom of the Sea to the others. When no-one else was left, they turned to killing and eating one another, until only Pearce survived. All victims were chosen in decidedly non-random ways. This story is one of the great Australian foundation myths, and it was an inspiration for this study (for a dramatic reconstruction, see Van Diemen’s Land (2009)). We are confident that none of our Northern European subjects made that connection.

Trait of appreciation of beauty: Many networks of the brain are involved in mental acts of appreciating beauty, but the medial orbital front cortex is implicated across all four channels; & women may appreciate beauty somewhat more than men in many cultures & nations

Diessner, R., Pohling, R., Stacy, S., & Güsewell, A. (2018). Trait appreciation of beauty: A story of love, transcendence, and inquiry. Review of General Psychology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/gpr0000166

Abstract: This review of the trait of appreciation of beauty (AoB) draws from the literature in personality psychology, philosophy, religion, neuroscience, neuro-aesthetics, evolutionary psychology, and the psychology of morality. We demonstrate that AoB can be mapped onto a definition of appreciation that includes perceptual, cognitive, emotional, trait, virtue, and valuing elements. A classic component of defining beauty, unity-in-diversity, is described based on the works of a variety of major philosophers. We next describe that there are at least four channels of appreciation of beauty: natural beauty, artistic beauty, moral beauty, and beautiful ideas. Examining the neuro-aesthetics research indicates that many networks of the brain are involved in mental acts of appreciating beauty, but the medial orbital front cortex (mOFC) is implicated across all four channels of beauty. We then explain how the trait of AoB is a member of three different families of traits: traits of love, traits of transcendence, and traits of inquiry. Next we briefly explain why Kant may have been more correct than Hegel concerning beauty and the good soul. We then present evidence that women may appreciate beauty somewhat more than men. Data from many cultures and nations consistently indicate this. After that we claim AoB leads to individual and collective flourishing. We examine and summarize studies that indicate appreciation of natural beauty leads to a wide variety of positive outcomes; we focus on the importance of open-mindedness that accompanies engagement with artistic beauty; and we summarize studies regarding the moral emotion of elevation and appreciation of moral beauty. Suggested future directions for research are embedded in each subsection of the paper.

Browsing social media: Little evidence of robust positive or negative effects, suggesting instead that the primary effect is a lessening of arousal; people tend to wind down - feel more relaxed, sleepy, bored and so on - not wind up

People Tend to Wind Down, Not Up, When They Browse Social Media. Galen Panger. Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction - CSCW archive, Volume 2 Issue CSCW, November 2018, Article No. 133, doi 10.1145/3274402

Abstract: Researchers have focused intensively on the emotional effects of browsing social media, with many emphasizing possible negative effects and others suggesting the positive emotions in status updates are contagious. Despite this focus, however, very few studies have investigated the actual emotional experience of browsing social media in the moment, and none with more than a few emotions, making it difficult to understand the effects research should endeavor to explain. To address this gap, I use experience sampling with diverse samples of Facebook (N = 362) and Twitter (N = 416) users, assessing the browsing experience across a wide range of emotions. Surprisingly, results provide little evidence of robust positive or negative effects, suggesting instead that the primary effect of browsing social media is a lessening of arousal. That is, contrary to stereotype, people tend to wind down - feel more relaxed, sleepy, bored and so on - not wind up.

No evidence that inbreeding avoidance is up-regulated during the ovulatory phase of the menstrual cycle

No evidence that inbreeding avoidance is up-regulated during the ovulatory phase of the menstrual cycle. Iris J Holzleitner et al. bioRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/192054

Abstract: Mate preferences and mating-related behaviors are hypothesized to change over the menstrual cycle in ways that function to increase reproductive fitness. Results of recent large-scale studies suggest that many of these hormone-linked behavioral changes are less robust than was previously thought. One hypothesis that has not yet been subject to a large-scale test is the proposal that women′s preference for associating with male kin is down-regulated during the ovulatory (high-fertility) phase of the menstrual cycle. Consequently, we used a longitudinal design to investigate the relationship between changes in women's steroid hormone levels and their perceptions of faces experimentally manipulated to possess kinship cues. Analyses suggested that women viewed men's faces displaying kinship cues more positively (i.e., more attractive and trustworthy) when estradiol-to-progesterone ratio was high. Since estradiol-to-progesterone ratio is positively associated with conception risk during the menstrual cycle, these results directly contradict the hypothesis that women's preference for associating with male kin is down-regulated during the ovulatory (high-fertility) phase of the menstrual cycle. Data and code are publicly available at https://osf.io/wnhma

Early Experiences of Threat, but Not Deprivation, Are Associated With Accelerated Biological Aging in Children and Adolescents

Early Experiences of Threat, but Not Deprivation, Are Associated With Accelerated Biological Aging in Children and Adolescents. Jennifer A. Sumner, Natalie L. Colich, Monica Uddin, Don Armstrong, Katie A. McLaughlin. Biological Psychiatry, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2018.09.008

Abstract

Background: Recent conceptual models argue that early life adversity (ELA) accelerates development, which may contribute to poor mental and physical health outcomes. Evidence for accelerated development in youths comes from studies of telomere shortening or advanced pubertal development following circumscribed ELA experiences and neuroimaging studies of circuits involved in emotional processing. It is unclear whether all ELA is associated with accelerated development across global metrics of biological aging or whether this pattern emerges following specific adversity types.

Methods: In 247 children and adolescents 8 to 16 years of age with wide variability in ELA exposure, we evaluated the hypothesis that early environments characterized by threat, but not deprivation, would be associated with accelerated development across two global biological aging metrics: DNA methylation (DNAm) age and pubertal stage relative to chronological age. We also examined whether accelerated development explained associations of ELA with depressive symptoms and externalizing problems.

Results: Exposure to threat-related ELA (e.g., violence) was associated with accelerated DNAm age and advanced pubertal stage, but exposure to deprivation (e.g., neglect, food insecurity) was not. In models including both ELA types, threat-related ELA was uniquely associated with accelerated DNAm age (β = .18) and advanced pubertal stage (β = .28), whereas deprivation was uniquely associated with delayed pubertal stage (β = −.21). Older DNAm age was related to greater depressive symptoms, and a significant indirect effect of threat exposure on depressive symptoms was observed through DNAm age.

Conclusions: Early threat-related experiences are particularly associated with accelerated biological aging in youths, which may be a mechanism linking ELA with depressive symptoms.

A prolonged growing season due to increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the US

Changing temperatures are helping corn production in U.S. — for now. By Leah Burrows. November 5, 2018. https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2018/11/changing-temperatures-are-helping-corn-production-in-us-for-now

    Research links warming temperatures and localized cooling to increased maize production
    New research shows that increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the U.S.

The past 70 years have been good for corn production in the midwestern United States, with yields increasing fivefold since the 1940s. Much of this improvement has been credited to advances in farming technology but researchers at Harvard University are asking if changes in climate and local temperature may be playing a bigger role than previously thought.

In a new paper, researchers found that a prolonged growing season due to increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the U.S.

“Our research shows that improvements in crop yield depend, in part, on improvements in climate,” said Peter Huybers https://www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/phuybers, Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS, https://eps.harvard.edu/) and of Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS, http://seas.harvard.edu/). “In this case, changing temperatures have had a beneficial impact on agricultural production, but there is no guarantee that benefit will last as the climate continues to change. Understanding the detailed relationships between climate and crop yield is important as we move towards feeding a growing population on a changing planet.”

The research is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The researchers modeled the relationship between temperature and crop yield from 1981 to 2017 across the so-called Corn Belt: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. They found that as temperatures increased due to global climate change, planting days got earlier and earlier, shifting by about three days per decade.

“One of farmers' biggest decisions is what they plant and when they plant it,” said Ethan Butler, first author of the paper and former graduate student in EPS. “We are seeing that farmers are planting earlier – not only because they have hardier seeds and better planting equipment — but also because it’s getting warmer sooner.”

Butler is currently a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Department of Forest Resources at the University of Minnesota.

Early planting means the corn has more time mature before the end of the growing season.

There is also a second, more surprising trend that has benefited corn yields. Whereas the vast majority of temperatures have warmed over the last century, the hottest days during the Midwestern growing season have actually cooled.

“Increasingly productive and densely-planted crops can evaporate more water from leaves and soils during hot days,” said Nathaniel Mueller, a former postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard University Center for the Environment and co-author of the paper.  “Widespread increases in rates of evaporation apparently helps shield maize from extreme heat, cooling the surrounding area and helping to boost yields.”

Mueller is currently an Assistant Professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine.

The researchers estimate that more than one-quarter of the increase in crop yield since 1981 can be attributed to the twin effects of a longer growing season and less exposure to high temperatures, suggesting that crop yield is more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.

The researchers also show that the planting and harvest dates farmers currently use is significantly better adapted to the present climate than it would be to climates in earlier decades.

“Farmers are incredibly proactive and we’re seeing them take advantage of changes in temperature to improve their yield. The question is, how well can they continue to adapt in response to future changes in climate," said Huybers.

This research was supported in part by the Packard Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

Sadism and Aggressive Behavior: Inflicting Pain to Feel Pleasure

Chester, David S., C. N. DeWall, and Brian Enjaiain. 2018. “Sadism and Aggressive Behavior: Inflicting Pain to Feel Pleasure.” PsyArXiv. November 5. doi:10.31234/osf.io/cvgkb

Abstract: Sadism is a ‘dark’ trait that involves the experience of pleasure from others’ pain, yet much is unknown about its link to aggression. Across eight studies (total N=2,255), sadism predicted greater aggression against both innocent targets and provocateurs. These associations occurred above-and-beyond general aggressiveness, impulsivity, and other ‘dark’ traits. Sadism was associated with greater positive affect during aggression, which accounted for much of the variance in the sadism-aggression link. This aggressive pleasure was contingent on sadists’ perceptions that their target suffered due to their aggressive act. After aggression, sadism was associated with increases in negative affect. Sadism thus appears to be a potent predictor of aggression that is motivated by the pleasure of causing pain. Such sadistic aggression ultimately backfires, resulting in greater negative affect. More generally, our results support the crucial role of anticipated and positive forms of affect in motivating aggression.

Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations

Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations. Heyu Xiong. Job Market Paper, Oct 2018. https://sites.northwestern.edu/hxl642/

It is widely hypothesized that legalization disrupts illicit markets and displaces illegal suppliers,  but the consequences for those who are displaced remain poorly understood. In this paper, I use comprehensive administrative data from three states that legalized marijuana covering all individuals released from prison in the years immediately before and after the policy change to estimate the effect of legalization on the subsequent criminality of convicted dealers. I find that marijuana legalization increased the 9-month recidivism rate of marijuana offenders by 6 percentage points relative to a baseline rate of 10 percent. The increased recidivism is largely driven by a substitution to the trafficking of other drugs, which is consistent with a Becker-style model where individuals develop human capital specific to the drug industry. To learn about potential mechanism behind these results, I use detailed drug transaction price data to estimate the effect of legalization on average prices and price dispersion, and I find suggestive evidence that both the average level and residual variance decline following legalization, which is consistent with legalization eroding rents earned in the illicit marijuana market. Lastly, I explore the generalizability of my findings in a distinct legalization experiment from history: the end of National Prohibition. I replicate the main insights at an organizational level and show that, in response to the repeal of Prohibition, the Italian-American Mafia shifted personnel from bootlegging to narcotics. Overall, the results in this paper suggest that an unintended consequence of drug legalization is a re-allocation of drug criminals to other illicit activity

Against stereotype, older people are more strongly attuned to the bright side of life than younger ones; & the more so, the better their brain functions

Integrating cognitive and emotion paradigms to address the paradox of aging. Laura L. Carstensen. Cognition and Emotion, https://doi.org/10.1080/02699931.2018.1543181

ABSTRACT: Thirty years ago, the subfields of emotion and cognition operated relatively independently and the associated science reflected the tacit view that they were distinct constructs. Today, questions about the integration of cognition and emotion are among the most interesting questions in the field. I offer a personal view of the key changes that fuelled this shift over time and describe research from my group that unfolded in parallel and led to the identification of the positivity effect.

KEYWORDS: Aging, positivity effect, socioemotional selectivity theory, history psychology

The relationship between inequality perceptions & preferences towards redistribution is conditional on the subjective position of respondents (is bigger for those perceived to be at the top of the social ladder)

Inequality Perceptions, Preferences Conducive to Redistribution, and the Conditioning Role of Social Position. Matthias Fatke. Societies 2018, 8(4), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/soc8040099

Abstract: Inequality poses one of the biggest challenges of our time. It is not self-correcting in the sense that citizens demand more redistributive measures in light of rising inequality, which recent studies suggest may be due to the fact that citizens’ perceptions of inequality diverge from objective levels. Moreover, it is not the latter, but the former, which are related to preferences conducive to redistribution. However, the nascent literature on inequality perceptions has, so far, not accounted for the role of subjective position in society. The paper advances the argument that the relationship between inequality perceptions and preferences towards redistribution is conditional on the subjective position of respondents. To that end, I analyze comprehensive survey data on inequality perceptions from the social inequality module of the International Social Survey Programme (1992, 1999, and 2009). Results show that inequality perceptions are associated with preferences conducive to redistribution particularly among those perceived to be at the top of the social ladder. Gaining a better understanding of inequality perceptions contributes to comprehending the absence self-correcting inequality.

Keywords: inequality; perceptions; redistribution; social rank; system justification

Check also: Fatke, Matthias, Inequality and Political Behavior: Objective Levels Versus Subjective Perceptions (March 8, 2018). https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/06/again-those-in-lower-economic-level-ask.html

People attribute to others a high degree of intentional control over their mental states, including their emotions (less controllable of all), desires (more), beliefs & evaluative attitudes (more controllable)

Cusimano, Corey, and Geoffrey Goodwin. 2018. “Lay Beliefs About the Controllability of Everyday Mental States.” PsyArXiv. November 4. doi:10.1037/xge0000547

Abstract: Prominent accounts of folk theory of mind posit that people judge others’ mental states to be uncontrollable, unintentional, or otherwise involuntary. Yet, this claim has little empirical support: few studies have investigated lay judgments about mental state control, and those that have done so yield conflicting conclusions. We address this shortcoming across six studies, which show that, in fact, lay people attribute to others a high degree of intentional control over their mental states, including their emotions, desires, beliefs, and evaluative attitudes. For prototypical mental states, people’s judgments of control systematically varied by mental state category (e.g., emotions were seen as less controllable than desires, which in turn were seen as less controllable than beliefs and evaluative attitudes). However, these differences were attenuated, sometimes completely, when the content of and context for each mental state were tightly controlled. Finally, judgments of control over mental states correlated positively with judgments of responsibility and blame for them, and to a lesser extent, with judgments that the mental state reveals the agent’s character. These findings replicated across multiple populations and methods, and generalized to people’s real-world experiences. The present results challenge the view that people judge others’ mental states as passive, involuntary, or unintentional, and suggest that mental state control judgments play a key role in other important areas of social judgment and decision making.

Paid leave led to shifts in labor supply & demand that decreased wages & family income among women of child-bearing age; children were 1.9 pct less likely to attend college & 3.1 pct less likely to earn a 4-year college degree

The long-run impacts of America's first paid maternity leave policy. Brenden Timpe. Job market paper, https://www.brendentimpe.com/home/research

Abstract: This paper provides the first evidence of the effect of a U.S. paid maternity leave policy on the long-run outcomes of children. I exploit variation in access to paid leave that was created by long-standing state differences in short-term disability insurance coverage and the state-level roll-out of laws banning discrimination against pregnant workers in the 1960s and 1970s. While the availability of these benefits sparked a substantial expansion of leave-taking by new mothers, it also came with a cost. The enactment of paid leave led to shifts in labor supply and demand that decreased wages and family income among women of child-bearing age. In addition, the first generation of children born to mothers with access to maternity leave benefits were 1.9 percent less likely to attend college and 3.1 percent less likely to earn a four-year college degree.

Bus and Train Operators: Men actually work nearly 50% more overtime hours than women, who are less likely than men to game the scheduling system by trading off work hours at regular wages for overtime hours at premium wages

Bolotnyy V, Emanuel N. Why Do Women Earn Less Than Men? Evidence from Bus and Train Operators (Job Market Paper). Working Paper. https://scholar.harvard.edu/bolotnyy/publications/why-do-women-earn-less-men-evidence-bus-and-train-operators-job-market-paper > final version Why Do Women Earn Less Than Men? Evidence from Bus and Train Operators. Valentin Bolotnyy and Natalia Emanuel. Journal of Labor Economics, Jul 2021. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/715835

Abstract: Even in a unionized environment, where work tasks are similar, hourly wages are identical, and tenure dictates promotions, female workers earn $0.89 on the male-worker dollar (weekly earnings). We use confidential administrative data on bus and train operators from the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) to show that the weekly earnings gap can be explained entirely by the workplace choices that women and men make. Women value time and flexibility more than men. Women take more unpaid time off using the Family Medical Leave Act (FMLA) and work fewer overtime hours than men. Men and women plan to work similar overtime hours when they are scheduled three months in advance, but men actually work nearly 50% more overtime hours than women. Women with dependents value time away from work more than do men with dependents. When selecting work schedules, women try to avoid weekend, holiday, and split shifts more than men. To avoid unfavorable work times, women prioritize their schedules over route safety and select routes with a higher probability of accidents. Women are less likely than men to game the scheduling system by trading off work hours at regular wages for overtime hours at premium wages. Conditional on seniority, which dictates choice sets, the weekly earnings gap can be explained entirely by differences in operator choices of hours, schedules, and routes.

From the final version: We show that a gender earnings gap can exist even in an environment where work tasks are similar, wages are identical, and tenure dictates promotions. The 11 percent earnings gap in our setting arises from female operators taking fewer overtime hours and more unpaid time off than do male operators. Consequently, we observe that gender neutral policies can have differential effects on the two sexes.

We find that female operators value time, as well as schedule controllability, conventionality, and predictability more than male operators. Male and female operators choose to work similar hours of overtime when they are scheduled months in advance, but male operators work nearly twice as many overtime hours when they are scheduled on short notice. Moreover, male operators game the overtime system more than female operators: when faced with an undesirable schedule, male operators take unpaid time off, but also work more overtime during the rest of the week, resulting in an increase over base income.

Conditional on parent income, immigrant children have similar incomes and higher educational attainment in adulthood than native-born Swedes

Bolotnyy V, Bratu C. The Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants and the Native-Born: Evidence from Sweden. Working Paper. https://scholar.harvard.edu/bolotnyy/publications/intergenerational-mobility-immigrants-and-native-born-evidence-sweden

Abstract: e use administrative Swedish data to show that, conditional on parent income, immigrant children have similar incomes and higher educational attainment in adulthood than native-born Swedes. This result, however, masks the fact that immigrant children born into poor families are more likely than similar natives to both reach the top of the income distribution and to stay at the bottom. Immigrant children from high-income families are also more likely than natives to regress to the economic bottom. Notably, however, children from predominantly-refugee sending countries like Bosnia, Syria, and Iran have higher intergenerational mobility than the average immigrant child in Sweden.

Individuals who don’t share money in lab experiments but later donate their (larger) earnings to charity (unethical+ethical) are evaluated less positively than those who share in lab but later donate less (ethical+ethical) or nothing (ethical+neutral)

Narrow Bracketing in Ethical Tradeoffs. Olivola, Christopher; Saccardo, Silvia. In Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2018, 39th Annual Conference. http://carter.psych.upenn.edu/programs/2018-program.pdf

Abstract: We demonstrate narrow bracketing in ethical tradeoffs: individuals who don’t share money in lab experiments but later donate their (larger) earnings to charity (unethical+ethical) are evaluated less positively than those who share in lab but later donate less (ethical+ethical) or nothing (ethical+neutral) to charity. However, broadly bracketing these same ethical tradeoffs (by presenting sharing and donation decisions simultaneously, rather than sequentially), shifts evaluations toward favoring the welfare maximizing option. Moreover, this effect extends beyond person-evaluations to the allocation decisions themselves: individuals share less (more) with other lab- participants and give more (less) to charity when these decisions are bracketed broadly (narrowly).

Participants who cheat and experience subsequent "close calls" with punishment reduce their cheating in levels comparable to cheaters who are punished

When close calls curb crime: almost getting caught reduces future unethical behavior. Permut, Stephanie; Saccardo, Silvia; Downs, Julie; Loewenstein, George. In Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2018, 39th Annual Conference. http://carter.psych.upenn.edu/programs/2018-program.pdf

Abstract: We investigate the applications of near - miss effects to theories of deterrence and risk. Across several experimental studies, we study how individuals behave after getting away with a first instance of cheating. We show that participants who cheat and experience subsequent "close calls" with punishment reduce their cheating in levels comparable to cheaters who are punished. By contrast, participants who avoid punishment by wider margins do not decrease their cheating. We present converging evidence that these effects are cognitive in nature. Participants believe that their distance from undesirable outcomes contains information about outcome - likelihoods and about the structure of the task itself.

Relative Income and Happiness: We find no evidence that subjects like being "richer" than others; women have a strong(er) distaste for being "richer" and "poorer", & conservatives have a strong(er) distaste for being "poorer

Relative Income and Happiness: An Experiment. John Ifcher, Homa Zarghamee, Daniel Houser, Lina Diaz. IZA Discussion Papers No. 11763, August 2018, https://www.iza.org/en/publications/dp/11763/relative-income-and-happiness-an-experiment

Abstract: John Stuart Mill claimed that "men do not desire merely to be rich, but richer than other men." Do people desire to be richer than others? Or is it that people desire favorable comparisons to others more generally, and being richer is merely a proxy for this ineffable relativity? We conduct an online experiment absent choice in which we measure subjective wellbeing (SWB) before and after an exogenous shock that reveals to subjects how many experimental points they and another subject receive, and whether or not points are worth money. We find that subjects like receiving monetized points significantly more than non-monetized points but dislike being "poorer" than others in monetized and non-monetized points equally, suggesting relative money is valued only for the relative points it represents. We find no evidence that subjects like being "richer" than others. Subgroup analyses reveal women have a strong(er) distaste for being "richer" and "poorer" (than do men), and conservatives have a strong(er) distaste for being "poorer" (than do progressives). Our experimental-SWB approach is easy to administer and can provide some insights a revealed-preference approach cannot, suggesting that it may complement choice-based tasks in future experiments to better estimate preference parameters.

Keywords: subjective well-being relative income others' income income comparisons happiness experiments

Investment in stocks led participants to adopt a more right-leaning outlook on issues such as merit and deservingness, personal responsibility and equality; shifted to the right on policy questions

How Markets Shape Political Preferences: A Field Experiment. Yotam Margalit and Moses Shayo. September 2018. http://people.socsci.tau.ac.il/ymargalit/Margalit_Shayo%200918.pdf

Abstract: How does engagement with markets affect social-economic values and political preferences? A long line of thinkers have debated the nature and direction of such effects, but claims are difficult to assess empirically because market engagement is endogenous. We designed a large field experiment to evaluate the impact of financial markets, which have grown dramatically in recent decades. Participants from a national sample in England received substantial sums they could invest over a six-week period. We assigned them into several treatments designed to distinguish between different theoretical channels of influence. Investment in stocks led participants to adopt a more right-leaning outlook on issues such as merit and deservingness, personal responsibility and equality. Subjects also shifted to the right on policy questions. These results appear to be driven by growing familiarity with, and decreasing distrust of markets. The spread of financial markets thus has important and under-appreciated political ramifications.

Oral contraceptive use is associated with greater mood stability and higher relationship satisfaction

Oral contraceptive use is associated with greater mood stability and higher relationship satisfaction. Tenille C.Taggart et al. Neurology, Psychiatry and Brain Research, Volume 30, December 2018, Pages 154-162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.npbr.2018.10.004

Highlights
•    Mood lability was less severe in OC users compared to non-users (d = .30).
•    Non-users reported more frequent mood lability occurrences than OC users (d = .41).
•    OC users reported higher relationship satisfaction levels than non-users (d = .31).
•    Mood instability mediated the OC-relationship satisfaction association.
•    Mood instability accounted for 44% of the variance in relationship satisfaction.

Abstract: Oral contraceptives (OCs) are one of the most commonly prescribed medications among women. OCs have been used to ameliorate hormone-related affective symptoms (e.g., mood lability). Previous data suggest that mood stability may have downstream effects for broader life outcomes, such as relationship satisfaction, which is also correlated with OC use. However, to date, no studies have examined the role of mood lability within the OC-relationship satisfaction association. Indirect effects structural equation modeling examined the extent to which OC use was associated with relationship satisfaction (direct effect), and the degree to which this association was mediated by mood lability (indirect effect) in women (N = 282) aged 18–32. OC users reported significantly higher relationship satisfaction (Cohen’s d = .31) and less frequent occurrences of mood lability (d = .41) compared to non-users. Indirect effects suggested that mood lability accounted for nearly half of the variance in the OC-relationship satisfaction relationship. Findings support an emerging literature suggesting that, in addition to contraception, OC use may subsequently positively impact various domains of wellbeing for women and their families. Results support public policy efforts aimed at providing broad, affordable access to contraceptives, including for non-contraceptive benefits, and discussing OCs as a potential treatment with all women, including those not at imminent risk for pregnancy. Given their widespread use, availability, and low side effects profile, it is imperative that future research further elucidate non-contraceptive benefits associated with OC use.

Large, high-cost universities that are located in larger cities or where unemployment rates are higher lead the nation in the number of female students that fund their higher education wih sugar daddy arrangements

Sugar daddy u: human capital investment and the university-based supply of ‘romantic arrangements’. Franklin G. Mixon. Applied Economics, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1524129

Abstract: To deal with the financial hardships associated with rising college tuition, many female college students in the U.S. are turning to risqué forms of financing human capital investments, such as agreeing to potentially lucrative ‘romantic arrangements’ with older males, referred to as ‘sugar daddies,’ through the largest Internet-based club in the industry. Yet despite this recent trend, there is a relative paucity of published academic research on the economics of such behaviour. Using data from the more than 220 nationally ranked (by U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges) colleges and universities in the U.S., presents results from both Poisson and scaled Poisson estimation suggesting that large, high-cost universities that are located in larger cities or where unemployment rates are higher lead the nation in the number of female students choosing such romantic arrangements in order to fund higher education. Moreover, those institutions that are chosen by more physically attractive female students, and those that enrol a higher percentage of female students, are also generating greater numbers of female student entrants into the sugar daddy industry. Each of these findings has implications for the human capital literature and the growing body of academic literature on the economics of beauty.

Keywords: Human capital investment, informal labor markets, economics of beauty, higher education
JEL Classification: I22, 3J22, J24, J46

Among primates, only humans have a maximum lifespan significantly longer than 50 years, & only human female life history includes a significant post-fertile stage of life; happens also in other long-lived taxa (resident killer & short-finned pilot whales)

Pavelka M.S.M., Brent L.J.N., Croft D.P., Fedigan L.M. (2018) Post-Fertile Lifespan in Female Primates and Cetaceans. In: Kalbitzer U., Jack K. (eds) Primate Life Histories, Sex Roles, and Adaptability. Developments in Primatology: Progress and Prospects. Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-98285-4_3

Abstract: Popular and scientific interest in menopause in humans has led to an increased interest in the extent of post-fertile life in other animals, particularly in long-lived social species such as other primates and cetaceans. Information on maximum lifespan achieved and age at last birth are available from long-term observations of known individuals from 11 primate species in the wild. Comparable information from wild cetaceans are more difficult to obtain; however there are relevant fisheries data, as well as a small number of long-term individual-based studies. Using post-reproductive representation (PrR) as a population measure of post-fertile lifespan that allows comparisons across populations and species, this review confirms that among primates, only humans have a maximum lifespan significantly longer than 50 years, and only human female life history includes a significant post-fertile stage of life. We conclude that although a prolonged post-fertile stage of life is very rare in mammals, it does occur in some exceptionally long-lived taxa, such as humans and resident killer and short-finned pilot whales. Thus menopause evolved independently at least three times in mammals, and the reasons for its evolution may differ in different lineages.

Keywords: Evolution of menopause Whale menopause Post-fertile lifespan primates

Moral Polarization and Out-party Hate in the US Political Context

Tappin, Ben M., and Ryan McKay. 2018. “Moral Polarization and Out-party Hate in the US Political Context.” PsyArXiv. November 2. doi:10.31234/osf.io/4fxb3

Abstract: Affective polarization describes the phenomenon whereby people identifying as Republican or Democrat tend to view opposing partisans negatively and co-partisans positively. Though extensively studied, there remain important gaps in scholarly understanding of affective polarization. In particular, (i) how it relates to the distinct behavioural phenomena of in-party “love” vs. out-party “hate”; and (ii) to what extent it reflects a generalized evaluative disparity between partisans vs. a domain-specific disparity in evaluation. Here, we report the results of an investigation that bears on both of these questions. Specifically, drawing on recent theoretical and empirical trends in political science and psychology, we hypothesize that moral polarization—the tendency to view opposing partisans’ moral character negatively, and co-partisans’ moral character positively—is associated with behavioural expressions of out-party hate. We test this hypothesis in two preregistered studies comprising behavioural measures and large convenience samples of US partisans (total N=1354). Our results strike an optimistic chord: Taken together, they suggest that the hypothesized association is probably small and somewhat tenuous. Though moral polarization per se was large—likely exceeding prior estimates of generalized affective polarization—even the most morally polarized partisans appeared reluctant to engage in a mild form of out-party hate behaviour. These findings converge with recent evidence that polarization—moral or otherwise—has yet to translate into the average US partisan wanting to actively harm their out-party counterparts.

Check also

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/forecasting-tournaments-epistemic.html

Does residential sorting explain geographic polarization? Gregory J. Martin & Steven W. Webster. Political Science Research and Methods, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/voters-appear-to-be-sorting-on-non.html

Liberals and conservatives have mainly moved further apart on a wide variety of policy issues; the divergence is substantial quantitatively and in its plausible political impact: intra party moderation has become increasingly unlikely:

Peltzman, Sam, Polarizing Currents within Purple America (August 20, 2018). SSRN: https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/liberals-and-conservatives-have-mainly.html

Does Having a Political Discussion Help or Hurt Intergroup Perceptions? Drawing Guidance From Social Identity Theory and the Contact Hypothesis. Robert M. Bond, Hillary C. Shulman, Michael Gilbert. Bond Vol 12 (2018), https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/having-political-discussion-with-out.html


All the interactions took the form of subjects rating stories offering ‘ammunition’ for their own side of the controversial issue as possessing greater intrinsic news importance:

Perceptions of newsworthiness are contaminated by a political usefulness bias. Harold Pashler, Gail Heriot. Royal Society Open Science, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/all-interactions-took-form-of-subjects.html

When do we care about political neutrality? The hypocritical nature of reaction to political bias. Omer Yair, Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan. PLOS, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/05/when-do-we-care-about-political.html

Democrats & Republicans were both more likely to believe news about the value-upholding behavior of their in-group or the value-undermining behavior of their out-group; Republicans were more likely to believe & want to share apolitical fake news:

Pereira, Andrea, and Jay Van Bavel. 2018. “Identity Concerns Drive Belief in Fake News.” PsyArXiv. September 11. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/democrats-republicans-were-both-more.html

In self-judgment, the "best option illusion" leads to Dunning-Kruger (failure to recognize our own incompetence). In social judgment, it leads to the Cassandra quandary (failure to identify when another person’s competence exceeds our own): The best option illusion in self and social assessment. David Dunning. Self and Identity, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/04/in-self-judgment-best-option-illusion.html

People are more inaccurate when forecasting their own future prospects than when forecasting others, in part the result of biased visual experience. People orient visual attention and resolve visual ambiguity in ways that support self-interests: "Visual experience in self and social judgment: How a biased majority claim a superior minority." Emily Balcetis & Stephanie A. Cardenas. Self and Identity, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/04/people-are-more-inaccurate-when.html

Can we change our biased minds? Michael Gross. Current Biology, Volume 27, Issue 20, 23 October 2017, Pages R1089–R1091. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/can-we-change-our-biased-minds.html

Summary: A simple test taken by millions of people reveals that virtually everybody has implicit biases that they are unaware of and that may clash with their explicit beliefs. From policing to scientific publishing, all activities that deal with people are at risk of making wrong decisions due to bias. Raising awareness is the first step towards improving the outcomes.

People believe that future others' preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own:

The Belief in a Favorable Future. Todd Rogers, Don Moore and Michael Norton. Psychological Science, Volume 28, issue 9, page(s): 1290-1301, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/people-believe-that-future-others.html

Kahan, Dan M. and Landrum, Asheley and Carpenter, Katie and Helft, Laura and Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing (August 1, 2016). Advances in Political Psychology, Forthcoming; Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 561. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2816803

Abstract: This paper describes evidence suggesting that science curiosity counteracts politically biased information processing. This finding is in tension with two bodies of research. The first casts doubt on the existence of “curiosity” as a measurable disposition. The other suggests that individual differences in cognition related to science comprehension - of which science curiosity, if it exists, would presumably be one - do not mitigate politically biased information processing but instead aggravate it. The paper describes the scale-development strategy employed to overcome the problems associated with measuring science curiosity. It also reports data, observational and experimental, showing that science curiosity promotes open-minded engagement with information that is contrary to individuals’ political predispositions. We conclude by identifying a series of concrete research questions posed by these results.

Keywords: politically motivated reasoning, curiosity, science communication, risk perception

Facebook news and (de)polarization: reinforcing spirals in the 2016 US election. Michael A. Beam, Myiah J. Hutchens & Jay D. Hmielowski. Information, Communication & Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/03/our-results-also-showed-that-facebook.html

The Partisan Brain: An Identity-Based Model of Political Belief. Jay J. Van Bavel, Andrea Pereira. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html

The Parties in our Heads: Misperceptions About Party Composition and Their Consequences. Douglas J. Ahler, Gaurav Sood. Aug 2017, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/we-tend-to-considerably-overestimate.html

The echo chamber is overstated: the moderating effect of political interest and diverse media. Elizabeth Dubois & Grant Blank. Information, Communication & Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/the-echo-chamber-is-overstated.html

Processing political misinformation: comprehending the Trump phenomenon. Briony Swire, Adam J. Berinsky, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ullrich K. H. Ecker. Royal Society Open Science, published on-line March 01 2017. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160802, http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/4/3/160802

Competing cues: Older adults rely on knowledge in the face of fluency. By Brashier, Nadia M.; Umanath, Sharda; Cabeza, Roberto; Marsh, Elizabeth J. Psychology and Aging, Vol 32(4), Jun 2017, 331-337. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/07/competing-cues-older-adults-rely-on.html

Stanley, M. L., Dougherty, A. M., Yang, B. W., Henne, P., & De Brigard, F. (2017). Reasons Probably Won’t Change Your Mind: The Role of Reasons in Revising Moral Decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/reasons-probably-wont-change-your-mind.html

Science Denial Across the Political Divide — Liberals and Conservatives Are Similarly Motivated to Deny Attitude-Inconsistent Science. Anthony N. Washburn, Linda J. Skitka. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 10.1177/1948550617731500. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/liberals-and-conservatives-are.html

Biased Policy Professionals. Sheheryar Banuri, Stefan Dercon, and Varun Gauri. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8113. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/biased-policy-professionals-world-bank.html

Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html

Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114 no. 36, pp 9587–9592, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704882114, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/individuals-with-greater-science.html

Expert ability can actually impair the accuracy of expert perception when judging others' performance: Adaptation and fallibility in experts' judgments of novice performers. By Larson, J. S., & Billeter, D. M. (2017). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 43(2), 271–288. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/06/expert-ability-can-actually-impair.html

Public Perceptions of Partisan Selective Exposure. Perryman, Mallory R. The University of Wisconsin - Madison, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2017. 10607943. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/citizens-believe-others-especially.html

The Myth of Partisan Selective Exposure: A Portrait of the Online Political News Audience. Jacob L. Nelson, and James G. Webster. Social Media + Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/the-myth-of-partisan-selective-exposure.html

Echo Chamber? What Echo Chamber? Reviewing the Evidence. Axel Bruns. Future of Journalism 2017 Conference. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/echo-chamber-what-echo-chamber.html

Fake news and post-truth pronouncements in general and in early human development. Victor Grech. Early Human Development, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/fake-news-and-post-truth-pronouncements.html

Consumption of fake news is a consequence, not a cause of their readers’ voting preferences. Kahan, Dan M., Misinformation and Identity-Protective Cognition (October 2, 2017). Social Science Research Network, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/consumption-of-fake-news-is-consequence.html

Better‐looking respondents give more morally permissive responses to most questions relating to sex; for issues not directly related to sexual opportunities, however, attractiveness does not predict significantly more acceptant attitudes

Good Looks as a Source of Moral Permissiveness. Robert Urbatsch. Social Science Quarterly, https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12544

Abstract

Objective: Establishing what leads people to particular moral beliefs is complicated by potential predictors being themselves caused by moral attitudes. This problem is less acute when considering the effects of good looks, which, by expanding sexual opportunities, shift incentives for beliefs regarding the morality of sexual activities.

Methods: Regressions predict responses to morality‐related questions in the 2016 General Social Survey and the 1972 National Election Study, which included interviewer (i.e., not self‐generated) evaluations of respondents’ looks. These questions concern various actions’ moral acceptability regardless of legality, as well as policy positions on issues including gay marriage and marijuana legalization.

Results: Better‐looking respondents give more morally permissive responses to most questions relating to sex. For issues not directly related to sexual opportunities, however, attractiveness does not predict significantly more acceptant attitudes.

Conclusion: Good‐looking people generally are more acceptant of those indulgences that they have disproportionate opportunities for, highlighting the role of opportunism in the formation of moral and political attitudes.

Check also: Things are looking up: Physical beauty, social mobility, and optimistic dispositions. R. Urbatsch. Social Science Research, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/physical-beauty-social-mobility-and.html

Tentative support for the hypothesis that belief in free will increases support for economic inequality; but attempts to experimentally manipulate belief in free will are often underpowered to detect an overall change in a dependent variable

Mercier, Brett G., Dylan Wiwad, Paul Piff, Lara aknin, Angela R. Robinson, and Azim Shariff. 2018. “Does Belief in Free Will Increase Support for Economic Inequality?.” PsyArXiv. November 2. doi:10.31234/osf.io/k45ud

Abstract: In five studies, we test whether belief in free will influences support for economic inequality. Study 1 shows that on a country-level, belief in free will is correlated with support for economic inequality. Study 2 demonstrates that individuals with stronger belief in free will are more likely to support inequality. In Studies 3 and 4, we manipulate belief in free will and find mixed results. We do not find evidence that the manipulation produces an overall change in support for inequality. However, we do find evidence that the data are consistent with a mediation model where the manipulation has an indirect effect on support for inequality through a change in belief in free will. Study 5 finds that people report that they would be more willing to support inequality in a hypothetical universe where free will exists compared to one where it does not. Our results provide tentative support for the hypothesis that belief in free will increases support for economic inequality. Additionally, our research illustrates how attempts to experimentally manipulate mediating variables, such as belief in free will, are often underpowered to detect an overall change in a dependent variable.

Women's chemosignals of high fertility increase mating motivation among man, encouraging them to act in a cooperative manner toward others, a response that may highlight their attractive qualities and thus attract mates

Women's fertility cues affect cooperative behavior: Evidence for the role of the human putative chemosignal estratetraenol. Chen Oren, Simone G. Shamay-Tsoory. Psychoneuroendocrinology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2018.10.028

Highlights
•    We examined the effect of women's chemosignals of fertility on men's cooperation.
•    Men exposed to women's chemosignals of fertility were more cooperative.
•    Estratetraenol increased men's tendency to apply a cooperative strategy as well.
•    The results support the notion that chemosignals communicating fertility may affect mating -related behaviors among men.
•    Estratetraenol is perhaps a biological agent underlying the effects of women's fertility chemosignals.

Abstract: Previous studies demonstrating that women’s body odor during ovulation is perceived as more attractive suggest that exposure to women’s chemosignals of high fertility increases mating motivation. Building on previous evidence showing that cooperative behaviors are perceived as attractive, in the current study we investigated whether chemosignals of women's fertility affect men's tendency to behave cooperatively. In the first experiment we found that in the presence of women's body odor during ovulation, men increase their tendency to apply a cooperative strategy, while their tendency to apply an individualistic strategy decreases. To examine the mechanism underlying this effect, we tested a different sample of men exposed to the putative human pheromone estratetraenol (estra-1,3,5(10),16-tetraen-3-ol) or to a control solution. Exposure to estratetraenol compared with control yielded strikingly similar effects of increased cooperation. The results indicate that women's chemosignals of high fertility increase mating motivation among man, encouraging them to act in a cooperative manner toward others, a response that may highlight their attractive qualities and thus attract mates. We further conclude that estratetraenol may serve as one of the biological agents that mediate the behavioral effects of women's chemosignals of fertility on social behavior.

Researchers frequently make inappropriate requests to statisticians: Removing/altering data to support the hypothesis; interpreting the findings on the basis of expectation, not results; not reporting the presence of key missing data; & ignoring violations of assumptions

Researcher Requests for Inappropriate Analysis and Reporting: A U.S. Survey of Consulting Biostatisticians. Min Qi Wang, Alice F. Yan, Ralph V. Katz. Annals of Internal Medicine, http://annals.org/aim/article-abstract/2706170/researcher-requests-inappropriate-analysis-reporting-u-s-survey-consulting-biostatisticians

Abstract

Background: Inappropriate analysis and reporting of biomedical research remain a problem despite advances in statistical methods and efforts to educate researchers.

Objective: To determine the frequency and severity of requests biostatisticians receive from researchers for inappropriate analysis and reporting of data during statistical consultations.

Design: Online survey.

Setting: United States.

Participants: A randomly drawn sample of 522 American Statistical Association members self-identifying as consulting biostatisticians.

Measurements: The Bioethical Issues in Biostatistical Consulting Questionnaire soliciting reports about the frequency and perceived severity of specific requests for inappropriate analysis and reporting.

Results: Of 522 consulting biostatisticians contacted, 390 provided sufficient responses: a completion rate of 74.7%. The 4 most frequently reported inappropriate requests rated as “most severe” by at least 20% of the respondents were, in order of frequency, removing or altering some data records to better support the research hypothesis; interpreting the statistical findings on the basis of expectation, not actual results; not reporting the presence of key missing data that might bias the results; and ignoring violations of assumptions that would change results from positive to negative. These requests were reported most often by younger biostatisticians.

Limitations: The survey provides information on the reported frequency of inappropriate requests but not on how such requests were handled or whether the requests reflected researchers' maleficence or inadequate knowledge about statistical and research methods. In addition, other inappropriate requests may have been made that were not prespecified in the survey.

Conclusion: This survey suggests that researchers frequently make inappropriate requests of their biostatistical consultants regarding the analysis and reporting of their data. Understanding the reasons for these requests and how they are handled requires further study.

Distortions of perceived volume and length of body parts

Distortions of perceived volume and length of body parts. Renata Sadibolova, Elisa R. Ferrè, Sally A. Linkenauger, Matthew R. Longo. Cortex, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2018.10.016

Abstract: We experience our body as a 3D, volumetric object in the world. Measures of our conscious body image, in contrast, have investigated the perception of body size along one or two dimensions at a time. There is, thus, a discrepancy between existing methods for measuring body image and our subjective experience of having 3D body. Here we assessed in a sample of healthy adults the perception of body size in terms of its 1D length and 3D volume. Participants were randomly assigned to two groups using different measuring units (other body part and non-body object). They estimated how many units would fit in a perceived size of body segments and the whole body. The patterns of length and volume misperception across judged segments were determined as their perceived size proportional to their actual size. The pattern of volume misperception paints the representation of 3D body proportions resembling those of a somatosensory homunculus. The body parts with a smaller actual surface area relative to their volume were underestimated more. There was a tendency for body parts underestimated in volume to be overestimated in length. Perceived body proportions thus changed as a function of judgement type while showing a similarity in magnitude of the absolute estimation error, be it an underestimation of volume or overestimation of length. The main contribution of this study is assessing the body image as a 3D body representation, and thus extending beyond the conventional ‘allocentric’ focus to include the body on the inside. Our findings highlight the value of studying the perceptual distortions “at the baseline”, i.e. in healthy population, so as to advance the understanding of the nature of perceptual distortions in clinical conditions.

Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering have become widely accepted & frequently cited; such simple quantitative estimates are misleading & potentially meaningless without serious qualification

Seli, Paul, Roger E. Beaty, James A. Cheyne, Daniel Smilek, and Daniel L. Schacter. 2018. “How Pervasive Is Mind Wandering, Really?.” PsyArXiv. February 26. doi:10.31234/osf.io/9pruj

Abstract: Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering (MW) (Killingsworth & Gilbert, 2010; Kane et al. 2007) have become widely accepted and frequently cited. While acknowledging attention to be inconstant and wavering, and MW to be ubiquitous, we argue and present evidence that such simple quantitative estimates are misleading and potentially meaningless without serious qualification. MW estimates requiring dichotomous judgments of inner experience rely on questionable assumptions about how such judgments are made and the resulting data do not permit straightforward interpretations. We present evidence that estimates of daily-life MW vary dramatically depending on response options provided. Offering participants a range of options in estimating task engagement yielded variable MW estimates, from approximately 60% to 10%, depending on assumptions made about how observers make introspective judgments about their MW experiences and how they understand what it means to be on- or off-task.

Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain

Lee, Harin. 2018. “Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain.” PsyArXiv. November 1. doi:10.31234/osf.io/xbwfq

Abstract: The current paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of some of the recent researches on congenital amusia, demonstrating how the behavioural, brain-imaging, and genetic studies have extended our understanding of the musical mind and brain. Moreover, it discusses the gaps in the literature that needs to be addressed in future research.

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Peretz and her colleagues (2007) investigated 9 large families of amusic probands with 71 members with matched control of 10 families with 75 members. The study showed that the disorder is a defect in pitch discrimination but not timing in music, and it is heritable. While the prevalence of the disorder was only 3% among first-degree relatives of control families, 39% was present in the amusic families. In a twin study of 136 monozygotic and 148 dizygotic twin pairs, participants were asked to discriminate the wrong note in a well-known song melody, and genetic model-fitting showed that shared genes were greater determinant than shared environment with estimate of 70 to 80% heritability (Drayna, Manichaikul, de Lange, Snieder, & Spector, 2001). Likewise, some studies argue that individuals’ musicality in general are more dependent to genetic basis compared to number of practice hours in the context of musical achievement (Peretz, 2016). Even the motivation to commit more hours of practice seems to be genetically influenced. The topic of whether musicality is innate or shaped through the environment is an on-going debate.

Nevertheless, recent studies have also demonstrated that amusia can be improved through laboratory training and raises a more interesting question (Liu, Jiang, Francart, Chan, & Wong, 2017; Whiteford & Oxenham, 2017, 2018). In a study conducted by Whiteford and Oxenham (2017), 20 amusics and matched pair of controls undertook four sessions to train in pitch-discrimination task. After the training, 11 of the amusics no longer met the criteria of MBEA and one year follow up test showed that the improvement is maintained (Whiteford & Oxenham, 2018). This is controversial to the previous findings that amusia is a life-long deficit and questions the current diagnosis of MBEA and whether the disorder is influenced by genetics.

Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach

Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach. Tomoki Tokuda, Junichiro Yoshimoto, Yu Shimizu, Go Okada, Masahiro Takamura, Yasumasa Okamoto, Shigeto Yamawaki & Kenji Doya. Scientific Reports, volume 8, Article number: 14082 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-32521-z

Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.

Maternal Age and Child Development: Each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with an increase in school achievement & a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems

Maternal Age and Child Development. Greg J. Duncan, Kenneth T. H. Lee, Maria Rosales-Rueda, Ariel Kalil. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0730-3

Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.

Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement

Gay females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on gay males

Subjective Well-being and Partnership Dynamics: Are Same-Sex Relationships Different? Shuai Chen, Jan C. van Ours. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0725-0

Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.

Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Almost.

Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Carlos Hernández Blasi, Laura Mondéjar. Evolutionary Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704918808864

Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.

Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology

Hot Hand Fallacy & Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot

Miller, Joshua B., and Adam Sanjurjo. 2018. “A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified.” OSF Preprints. November 1. doi:10.31219/osf.io/pj79r

Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot

Locked-in individuals do not experience the anguish and turmoil that this horrifying situation would lead observers to expect

Phenomenology of the Locked-In Syndrome: an Overview and Some Suggestions. Fernando Vidal. Neuroethics, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12152-018-9388-1

Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.

Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)

Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html

locked-in patients are not particularly distressed by their huge behavioral limitations [...] the emotional balance is shifted toward positive emotions

Forecasting tournaments & epistemic humility: Turning polarized beliefs to nuanced probability judgments, incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, depolarizing debates

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.021

Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.

There was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity & the three well-being measures; they discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice & divorce

Verbakel, Ellen, and Christiaan W. S. Monden. 2018. “Higher Well-being with Similar Partner? Testing the Similarity Hypothesis for Socio-demographic Characteristics.” SocArXiv. July 5. doi:10.31235/osf.io/ahwn6

Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.

Future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain—is associated with the inclination to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, & experience positive emotions

Look into the crystal ball: Can vivid images of the future enhance physical health? Simon A Moss et al. Journal of Health Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105316669582

Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.

Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking

People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information; some people do it as mementos to cue autobiographical information

People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information. Robbie J. Taylor & Maryanne Garry. Memory, https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2018.1539499

ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.

KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought

We perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource; there is a limited amount of good luck to get, and if another is lucky, he is robbing us

Marciano, Deborah, Eden Krispin, Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde, and Leon Deouell. 2018. “Limited Resources or Limited Luck? Why People Perceive an Illusory Negative Correlation Between the Outcomes of Choice Options Despite Unequivocal Evidence for Independence.” PsyArXiv. October 30. doi:10.31234/osf.io/6rkwd

Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.

Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”; that network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs

Intersubject similarity of personality is associated with intersubject similarity of brain connectivity patterns. Wei Liu, Nils Kohn, Guillén Fernández. NeuroImage, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2018.10.062

Highlights
•    Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”.
•    Global personality network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs.
•    Intersubject network similarity analysis can identify pairs of participants with similar personality profiles.
•    Global personality network can predict participants’ item-level responses in the Five-Factor Model.

Abstract: Personality is a central high-level psychological concept that defines individual human beings and has been associated with a variety of real-world outcomes (e.g., mental health and academic performance). Using 2 h, high resolution, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) resting state data of 984 (primary dataset N = 801, hold-out dataset N = 183) participants from the Human Connectome Project (HCP), we investigated the relationship between personality (five-factor model, FFM) and intrinsic whole-brain functional connectome. We found a pattern of functional brain connectivity (“global personality network”) related to personality traits. Consistent with the heritability of personality traits, the connectivity strength of this global personality network is also heritable (more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs). Validated by both the repeated family-based 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out dataset, our intersubject network similarity analysis allowed us to identify participants' pairs with similar personality profiles. Across all the identified pairs of participants, we found a positive correlation between the network similarity and personality similarity, supporting our “similar brain, similar personality” hypothesis. Furthermore, the global personality network can be used to predict the individual subject's responses in the personality questionnaire on an item level. In sum, based on individual brain connectivity pattern, we could predict different facets of personality, and this prediction is not based on localized regions, but rather relies on the individual connectivity pattern in large-scale brain networks.

The Democratic State & How the Public Sector Promotes Human Happiness: Public employees are happier & exhibit greater life satisfaction; country differences in subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector

Well-Being and the Democratic State: How the Public Sector Promotes Human Happiness. Alexander Pacek, Benjamin Radcliff, Mark Brockway. Social Indicators Research, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-018-2017-x

Abstract: While a growing literature within the study of subjective well-being demonstrates the impact of socio-political factors on subjective well-being, scholars have conspicuously failed to consider the role of the size and scope of government as determinants of well-being. In this study, we examine the size of the public sector as a determinant of cross-national variation in life satisfaction across the industrial democracies. At the individual-level, we find that public employees are happier and exhibit greater life satisfaction than otherwise similar others. At the aggregate level, the data strongly suggest that the subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector. The implications for the study of life satisfaction are discussed.

Keywords: Public employment Size of government Happiness Life satisfaction Welfare state Labor unions Public sector

Men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others

Swinging high or low? Measuring self-esteem in swingers. Amanda S. Ruzansky, Marissa A. Harrison. The Social Science Journal, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.10.006

Highlights
•    We quantitatively measured the self-esteem of swingers.
•    Our sample consisted of 41 participants (19 men and 22 women) identifying as swingers and attending a swinging event.
•    Our participants largely matched the demographics reported in other studies of swingers.
•    We found that female swingers had self-esteem comparable to a general sample.

Abstract: This study sought to examine the self-esteem of individuals involved in a consensually non-monogamous relationship, the swinging lifestyle. Utilizing the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the self-esteem of swingers was quantified and compared to a general sample. The results reveal that swingers have higher self-esteem. However, gender differences emerged in post hoc analyses whereby men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others. Results are discussed in terms of evolutionary and clinical importance. Limitations and future directions are also discussed.

Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations & in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted

Girardi, Daniele, "Political Shocks and Financial Markets: Regression-Discontinuity Evidence from National Elections" (2018). UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers. 245. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/245

Abstract: Despite growing interest in the effect of political-institutional factors on the economy, causally identified evidence on the reaction of financial markets to electoral outcomes is still relatively scarce, due to the difficulty of isolating causal effects. This paper fills this gap: we estimate the ‘local average treatment effect’ of left-wing (as opposed to conservative) electoral victories on share prices, exchange rates, and sovereign bond yields and spreads. Using a new dataset of worldwide national (parliamentary and presidential) elections in the post-WWII period, we obtain a sample of 954 elections in which main parties/candidates can be classified on the left-right scale based on existing sources and monthly financial data are available. To achieve causal identification, we employ a dynamic regression-discontinuity design, thus focusing on close elections. We find that left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations and in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted. Effects at longer time horizons (6 to 12 months) are very dispersed, signaling large heterogeneity in medium-run outcomes. Stock market and exchange rate effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the Left’s proposed economic policy is more radical, in developing economies, and in the post-1990 period.