Consciousness rests on the brain’s ability to sustain rich brain dynamics (including signal coordination) & pave the way for determining specific & generalizable fingerprints of conscious & unconscious states

Human consciousness is supported by dynamic complex patterns of brain signal coordination. A. Demertzi et al. Science Advances Feb 06 2019: Vol. 5, no. 2, eaat7603
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat7603

Abstract: Adopting the framework of brain dynamics as a cornerstone of human consciousness, we determined whether dynamic signal coordination provides specific and generalizable patterns pertaining to conscious and unconscious states after brain damage. A dynamic pattern of coordinated and anticoordinated functional magnetic resonance imaging signals characterized healthy individuals and minimally conscious patients. The brains of unresponsive patients showed primarily a pattern of low interareal phase coherence mainly mediated by structural connectivity, and had smaller chances to transition between patterns. The complex pattern was further corroborated in patients with covert cognition, who could perform neuroimaging mental imagery tasks, validating this pattern’s implication in consciousness. Anesthesia increased the probability of the less complex pattern to equal levels, validating its implication in unconsciousness. Our results establish that consciousness rests on the brain’s ability to sustain rich brain dynamics and pave the way for determining specific and generalizable fingerprints of conscious and unconscious states.

Check also Chasing the Rainbow: The Non-conscious Nature of Being. David A. Oakley and Peter W. Halligan. Front. Psychol., November 14 2017. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/despite-compelling-subjective.html

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INTRODUCTION 
Consciousness is seemingly lost and recovered every day, from themoment we fall asleep until we wake up. Consciousness can also betransiently abolished by pharmacological agents or, more permanently,by brain injury. Each of these departures from conscious wakefulnessbrings about different changes in brain function, behavior, and neuro-chemistry. Yet, they all share a common feature: lack of reported sub-jectiveexperience(1).Finding reliable markers indicating the presence or absence of con-sciousness represents an outstanding open problem for science (2).We postulate that consciousness has specific characteristics that arebased on the temporal dynamics of ongoing brain activity and its co-ordination over distant cortical regions. Our hypothesis stems fromthe common stance of various contemporary theories which proposethat consciousness relates to a dynamic process of self-sustained,coordinated brain-scale activity assisting the tuning to a constantlyevolving environment, rather than in static descriptions of brainfunction (3–5). In that respect, neural signals combine, dissolve, re-configure, and recombine over time, allowing perception, emotion,and cognition to happen (6).The first biological evidence for a constantly active brain camefrom electroencephalographic recordings showing electrical oscilla-tions even when the participant was not performing any particulartask. More recently, brain dynamics have been characterized by thepresence of complex activity patterns, which cannot be completelyattributed to background noise (7). Experiments with functional mag-netic resonance imaging (fMRI) during normal wakefulness haveshown that the brain spontaneouslygenerates a dynamic series of con-stantly changing activity and connectivity between brain regions (8–10).This activity presents long-range temporal correlations in the sensethat signal changes exert long-term influence on future dynamics (11).This translates to a complex temporal organization of the long-rangecoupling between brain regions, with temporally correlated series oftransitions between discrete functional connectivity patterns (6). Thespatiotemporal complexity of brain dynamics contributes toward ef-ficient exchanges between neuronal populations (8), suggesting thatthe neural correlates of consciousness could be found in temporallyevolving dynamic processes, as postulated by influential theoreticalaccounts (3–5).In terms of states of consciousness, spontaneous fMRI dynamicconnectivity has been investigated in different sleep stages (11,12)and pharmacologically induced anesthesia in humans (13,14)andanimals (15,16). These studies indicate that, during physiologicallyreversible unconscious states, cortical long-range correlations are
disrupted in both space and time, anticorrelated cortical statesdisappear, and the dynamic explorations are limited to specific patternsthat are dominated by rigid functional configurations tied to the anatom-ical connectivity. Conversely, conscious wakefulness is characterizednot only by global integration, evidenced by strong long-distance inter-actions between brain regions, butalso by a dynamic exploration of arich and flexible repertoire of functional brain configurations departingfrom the anatomical constraints (15). Another important characteristicobserved predominantly during conscious wakefulness is the appear-ance of anticorrelations between the activity of different brain regions.This observation is in line with the prediction of the Global NeuronalWorkspace theory stating that different streams of information in thebrain compete for the global percolation (“ignition”) of a widespreadnetwork of regions, a phenomenon associated with conscious access.In terms of the fMRI blood oxygen level–dependent (BOLD) signal,this could manifest in the mutual inhibition of activity at different cor-tical regions, leading to anticorrelated dynamics (5).Although dynamic connectivity has been investigated in physio-logical and pharmacological unresponsiveness, currently, the altera-tions in brain connectivity dynamics associated with pathologicalunconsciousness after severe brain injury remain unknown. The studyof unresponsive brain-lesioned patients with preserved levels of vig-ilance offers unique insights into the necessary and potentially suf-ficient conditions for the capacity of sustaining conscious content. Sofar, the inference of consciousness in patients has rested on the use ofactive mental imagery neuroimaging paradigms (17) and by assess-ing the complexity of evoked (18) and spontaneous brain activity(19). Patients who successfully perform these active paradigms canno longer be considered unconscious and are thought to suffer fromcognitive-motor dissociation (20). Given that nonresponsiveness canbe associated with a variety of brain lesions, varying levels of vigilance,and covert cognition, we highlight the need to determine a commonset of features capable of accounting for the capacity to sustain con-scious experience. Given the above theoretical considerations, whichagree in the characterization of consciousness as a global, temporallyevolving process, we aimed at determining whether the dynamics ofbrain-wide coordination could provide such a set of common featuresin the form of transient patterns of connectivity that successfully gen-eralize between different forms of nonresponsiveness in patients withbrain injury.

DISCUSSION 
We studied the brain’s dynamic organization during consciouswakefulness and after severe brain injury leading to disorders of con-sciousness, with the aim of determining patterns of signal coordinationspecifically associated with conscious and unconscious states. Weidentified a pattern of positive and negative long-distance coordination,high modularity, with low similarity to the anatomical connectivity,
potentially relevant for the support of conscious cognition (pattern 1).We also identified a pattern of low interregional dynamic coordina-tion, low efficiency, with high similarity to anatomical connectivity,potentially specific to reduced or absent conscious processing (pattern4). With respect to pattern 1, momentary neural coalitions have beenpreviously shown to constitute a basis for complex cognitive function,with signals fluctuating between states of high and low connectivityand with more integrated states enabling faster and more accurate
performance during cognitive tasks (23). With respect to pattern 4,studies in physiological and pharmacological unconsciousnessshowed a breakdown of long-range interareal positive and negativeconnections. For example, during sleep, the presence of negative dy-namic connections disappear (11). Our results are in line with previ-ous findings in animals. As in the present study, the brain activity ofanesthetized nonhuman primates resided most frequently in a patternof low connectivity resembling the anatomy, which was sustained forlonger periods of time in comparison to more complex patterns (15).In addition, we demonstrated that network properties, such as mod-ularity, integration, distance relationship, and efficiency, increasedwith the participants’conscious state. The latter result is in line withthe hypothesis that high-efficiency patterns carry higher metaboliccosts (24), which are restricted underpathologicalunconsciousconditions (25).Our findings also align with theoretical considerations on dynamicconnectivity, suggesting that alternating patterns of correlations andanticorrelations may constitute a fundamental property of informationprocessing in the brain (26). Differentmodels of consciousness proposethat intermittent epochs of global synchronization grant segregated
and parallel network elements access to a global workspace, integratingthem serially and allowing effortful conscious cognition (27). There-fore, the transient exploration of this global workspace could permitthe brain to efficiently balance both segregated and integrated neuraldynamics and to encode globally broadcasted and therefore reportableconscious contents (3). In the absence of transient epochs of global syn-chronization, the transmission of information is expected to be rela-tively ineffective (6).With respect to patterns 2 and 3, these were not predominantlypreferred by any group in terms of occurrence probabilities and dura-tion and hence could represent transitional states (28). Pattern 3 showedthe overall positive interareal coherence. For pattern 2, the significanceof the overall negative coherence with regions of the visual networkcan only be speculated. For the moment, we suggest that it indicatesthe presence of a local coordination pattern reflecting the anatomicalorganization of the visual cortex (29).Whether the identified dynamic coordination patterns entail thepresence/absence of mental contents or cognitive function is difficultto assume without probing moment-to-moment changes in thecontents of conscious experience. Although a link has been shownbetween intrinsic connectivity networks and various behavioral tasks(30), it has been suggested that BOLD correlations need not necessar-ily reflect moment-to-moment changes in cognitive content. Instead,they may predominantly reflect processes necessary for maintainingthe stability of the brain’s functional organization (31). Also, the BOLDsignal is nonstationary (32), and some of its spontaneous fluctuationsmay not be a faithful reflection of functionally relevant brain dynamicsor the underlying nonstationarities of neural activity and coordination(10). We also acknowledge that the identification of these dynamicconfigurations required time-resolved analyses of fMRI time seriesin the scale of few seconds. It can be argued that conscious cognitionand the relevant features of our environment develop on a faster timescale of hundreds of milliseconds (3). However, the BOLD signal hasbeen shown to correlate with infraslow neurophysiological oscilla-tions, i.e., the slow cortical potential (33). The slow cortical potentialis important for large-scale information integration, hence suggest-ing that the flow of the conscious experience could be supported byprocesses at slower time scales (34). Future experiments should ad-dress a potential relationship between conscious experience, the slowcortical potential, and functional network reconfigurations measuredas with fMRI.Regardless of the implicated time scales, our analyses did not aim attracking the moment-to-moment contents of conscious experience,but at identifying brain-wide dynamic networks supporting differentglobal states of consciousness. We consider that the four-pattern modelcan account for modes of conscious and unconscious informationprocessing. Our interpretation is sustained by the additional testsfor the validity and replicability of the main results. We found thatthe complex dynamic pattern 1 presented low probabilities of appear-ing in patients under propofol anesthesia (whether they were commu-nicating or not at baseline) and that it was most likely to appear inpatients with covert cognition (i.e., patients in UWS who successfullyperformed mental imagery neuroimaging tasks). Both findings sug-gest its implication in conscious states. We also found that the pat-tern of low interareal coordination (pattern 4) uniformly presentedhigher probabilities of appearing in all anesthetized patients, regardlessof clinical diagnosis, and it was most likely to manifest in unresponsivepatients who did not perform the mental imagery neuroimaging task,supporting its relationship to absent or reduced conscious cognition.Pattern 4 remained visited by healthy controls even under typicalwakeful conditions. In the absence of experience sampling duringdata acquisition, the interpretation of this finding can only be specu-lative. On the one hand, it could be that healthy controls entered tran-sient microsleep states as a result of fluctuating levels of vigilance, afrequently observed phenomenon during resting-state experiments(35). Our experimental setup did not include simultaneous poly-somnography recordings to directly test this hypothesis. However,we derived different fMRI-based proxies to assess the presence ofmicrosleeps. First, we examined head movements time locked to theoccurrence of all coordination patterns and found no substantial as-sociations between the two variables, as could be expected if pattern 4was related to lapses in vigilance. Second, we performed a whole-braingeneral linear model (GLM) analysis, with the coordination patterntime series as regressors. We did not observe significant positive/negative BOLD signal changes associated with the onset of the differentcoordination patterns; in particular, the presence of coordination pat-tern 4 did not result in BOLD signal changes typical of microsleeps.Last, the likelihood of pattern 4 occurring over time did not positivelycorrelate with the elapsed scan time, as has been shown to occur forpatterns associated with lapses in vigilance (35,36). Once we rule outtransient loss of vigilance as the cause of the intrusion of pattern 4 inconscious wakefulness, we can speculate that the flow of consciouscognition may be separated by periods of absent or reduced effortfulinformation processing, as recently it was hypothesized that betweentwo successive self-reports, a subject may present states of reducedawareness (37). Behaviorally, this could take the form of“mindblanks”during which participants are not engaged in cognitivedemanding processes, although they remain vigilant (38). This inter-pretation is parsimonious with the observation that participantswere instructed to rest inside the scanner, without engaging in anyeffortful cognitive task. The potential role of transient lapses of aware-ness in the stream of conscious contents during healthy wakefulnessshould be addressed by future experiments.Together, our results suggest that, following loss of consciousness,coordinated brain activity is largely restricted to a positive pattern ofinterareal coherence dominated by the anatomical connections be-tween brain regions. In contrast, conscious states are characterizedby a higher prevalence of a complex configuration of interareal coor-dination that, while still constrained by brain anatomy, also deviatesfrom it and presents both positive and negative long-distance inter-actions. It did not escape us that such a complex interareal coor-dination pattern sporadically appeared in the group of unresponsivepatients. The real-time detection of this pattern and its reinforcementthough externally induced manipulations could represent a promis-ing avenue for the noninvasive restoration of consciousness. We con-clude that these patterns of transient brain signal coordination arecharacteristic of conscious and unconscious brain states, warrantingfuture research concerning their relationship to ongoing consciouscontent, and the possibility of modifying their prevalence by externalperturbations, both in healthy and pathological individuals, as well asacross species.

Professor Jack Ponton's New Paper: Grid Scale Electricity Storage Can’t Save Renewables

Professor Jack Ponton's New Paper: Grid Scale Electricity Storage Can’t Save Renewables. Global Warming Policy Foundation, Feb 7 2019, https://www.thegwpf.org/new-paper-grid-scale-electricity-storage-cant-save-renewables

Engineer pours cold water on battery and hydrogen technologies

A new briefing paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) dismisses the idea that grid-scale electricity storage can help bring about a UK renewables revolution.

According to the paper’s author, Professor Jack Ponton, an emeritus professor of engineering from the University of Edinburgh, current approaches are either technically inadequate or commercially unviable.

Many commentators have suggested that intermittent power from wind turbines could simply be balanced with batteries or pumped hydro storage, but as Professor Ponton explains, this approach is unlikely to be viable.

“You need storage to deal with lulls in wind generation that can last for several days, so the amount required would be impracticably large. And because this would only be required intermittently, its capital cost could probably never be recovered”.

Professor Ponton also thinks that another potential saviour of the renewables revolution – hydrogen storage – has been unjustifiably hyped:

“A major problem with hydrogen is its low volumetric energy density. The only practical way of storing the large volumes required would be in underground caverns or depleted gasfields. We are already short of this type of storage for winter supplies of natural gas.”

Professor Ponton concludes that a lack of suitable storage technologies means that intermittent renewables cannot replace dispatchable coal, gas and nuclear power and so a sensible energy policy cannot be based on them.

“Wind and solar power are not available on demand and there are no technologies to make them so. Refusing to face these inconvenient facts poses a serious threat to our energy security”.

>>> Grid-Scale Storage: Can it solve the intermittency problem? https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/02/GridStorageWeb-1.pdf

Prevalence & correlates of medical cannabis patients' use of cannabis for recreational purposes: More than half of medical cannabis users used it recreationally, which is much more misuse than for other medications

Prevalence and correlates of medical cannabis patients' use of cannabis for recreational purposes. Meghan E.Morean, Izzy R.Lederman. Addictive Behaviors, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2019.02.003

Highlights
•    Patients (55.5%) legally using medical cannabis (MC) reported recreational use (RC).
•    RC use was associated with living in a state where RC is legal and being female.
•    RC use was associated with using MC to treat pain and mental health conditions.
•    RC use was associated with using MC products with high THC concentrations.
•    Using MC products with high CBD concentrations protected against RC use.

Abstract
Background: Rates of legal medical cannabis (MC) use are increasing, but little is known about the prevalence and correlates of recreational cannabis (RC) use among medical users (MC/R).

Methods: 348 MC users who resided in a state in which MC is legal and had medical authorization to use MC legally completed an anonymous survey in Spring 2017 (64.1% female, 82.8% White, mean age 33.03[±10.37] years). Rates of endorsing MC/R and the following potential correlates of MC/R were examined: the legal status of RC in participants' states of residence, sex, age, race, primary medical condition, MC product(s) used, MC expectancies, features of MC sought out (e.g., high tetrahydrocannabinol [THC] content), and negative cannabis use consequences.

Results: 55.5% of MC users engaged in MC/R. MC/R was associated with residing in a state in which RC is legal, being female, using MC for pain or mental health conditions, vaping MC concentrates, holding positive expectancies for combustible MC, and seeking out MC products with high THC concentrations. Preferring MC products with high cannabidiol (CBD) concentrations protected against MC/R.

Conclusions: More than half of MC users endorsed MC/R, which is considerably higher than rates of misuse observed for other prescription medications. Findings raise concerns about circumvention of RC laws in states where RC remains illegal and could be used to inform MC regulatory efforts (e.g., reducing THC content, increasing CBD content). Findings also suggest that prevention/intervention efforts to reduce MC/R are needed, especially among high-risk populations of MC users (e.g., women, pain patients, psychiatric patients).

Numerical cognition in honeybees enables addition and subtraction

Numerical cognition in honeybees enables addition and subtraction. Scarlett R. Howard et al. Science Advances Feb 06 2019: Vol. 5, no. 2, eaav0961. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav0961

Abstract: Many animals understand numbers at a basic level for use in essential tasks such as foraging, shoaling, and resource management. However, complex arithmetic operations, such as addition and subtraction, using symbols and/or labeling have only been demonstrated in a limited number of nonhuman vertebrates. We show that honeybees, with a miniature brain, can learn to use blue and yellow as symbolic representations for addition or subtraction. In a free-flying environment, individual bees used this information to solve unfamiliar problems involving adding or subtracting one element from a group of elements. This display of numerosity requires bees to acquire long-term rules and use short-term working memory. Given that honeybees and humans are separated by over 400 million years of evolution, our findings suggest that advanced numerical cognition may be more accessible to nonhuman animals than previously suspected.

Paul Romer suggestions for the World Bank: outsource the bank’s research; for good reasons, the bank’s shareholders have chosen to protect its diplomatic function, at the expense of its research

Paul Romer, Nobel Prize in Economics, suggestions for the World Bank. https://paulromer.net/ft_oped/

First, outsource the bank’s research upon which it depends for identifying problems and proposing solutions. Diplomacy and science cannot both thrive under the same roof. One consequence of the bank’s commitment to diplomacy is its necessary embrace of the helpful ambiguity that makes it possible for multilateral institutions to allow “Chinese Taipei” compete in the Olympic Games without “Taiwan, China” having a seat in the UN. Dispassionate examination makes clear that what the bank does to maintain conformity on the diplomatic front is not compatible with scientific research.

All that matter in science are the facts. When complex political sensitivities are allowed to influence research by stifling open disagreement, it ceases to be scientific. For good reasons, the bank’s shareholders have chosen to protect its diplomatic function, at the expense of its research.

Outsourcing research would be a better, more efficient way for the bank to establish the facts needed to do its job. This would also be an investment in the universities that make the discoveries that drive human progress.

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My question: What about the IMF?

An exogenously-induced optimism engenders greater dishonesty than pessimism; dishonesty is positively correlated with self-reported optimism and mood upswings

Optimism, pessimism, mood swings and dishonest behavior. Erez Siniver, Gideon Yaniv. Journal of Economic Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.01.007

Highlights
•    The effects of optimism, pessimism and mood swings on dishonesty are examined.
•    An exogenously-induced optimism engenders greater dishonesty than pessimism.
•    Dishonesty is positively correlated with self-reported optimism and mood upswings.
•    Optimism in coping with a mental challenge does not trigger a sense of entitlement.

Abstract: The present paper reports the results of two experimental studies designed to examine the effects of optimism, pessimism, and mood swings on dishonest behavior. In Study 1, optimistic and pessimistic moods were exogenously induced to two classes of economics students who subsequently performed the die-under-the-cup task. Subjects experiencing an optimistic mood were found to exhibit greater dishonesty than those experiencing a pessimistic mood. In Study 2, economics students were asked, before and after taking a much-feared exam, to indicate on an optimism/pessimism mood scale how they felt about their success in it, subsequently performing the die-under-the-cup task. Dishonesty was found to be positively (negatively) correlated with post-exam optimism (pessimism) as well as with mood upswings (downswings) occurring between the post and pre-exam points of time. A side study ruled out the possibility that post-exam optimism induced a sense of entitlement which could have driven greater dishonesty.

Association of Fetal Growth With General and Specific Mental Health Conditions

Association of Fetal Growth With General and Specific Mental Health Conditions. Erik Pettersson, Henrik Larsson, Brian D’Onofrio, et al. JAMA Psychiatry, doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2018.4342

Key Points

Question  Do the associations between fetal growth and later mental health conditions remain after controlling for familial confounding factors and psychiatric comorbidity?

Findings  This register-based study including more than 1 million participants and using a within-sibling pair design found that higher birth weight (statistically adjusted for gestational age) significantly lowered the risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and depression. Furthermore, an increase in birth weight by 1 kg significantly decreased a general factor of psychopathology by 0.047 SDs and a specific neurodevelopmental factor by 0.159 SDs.

Meaning  After controlling for familial factors and psychiatric comorbidity, fetal growth was most strongly associated with specific neurodevelopmental disorders.
Abstract

Importance  It is unclear if the associations between fetal growth and later mental health conditions remain after controlling for familial factors and psychiatric comorbidity.

Objective  To examine the associations between fetal growth and general and specific mental health conditions, controlling for familial factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This register-based study conducted in Sweden analyzed 546 894 pairs of full siblings born between January 1, 1973, and December 31, 1998. Sibling pairs were followed up through December 31, 2013. First, population-based and within-sibling pair associations (which controlled for time-invariant familial confounders) between fetal growth and the outcomes were estimated. Second, exploratory factor analysis was applied to the outcomes to derive 1 general factor and 4 specific and independent factors. Third, the general and specific factors were regressed on fetal growth. Statistical analysis was performed from March 27, 2017, to October 27, 2018.

Main Outcome and Measures  The outcomes were 11 psychiatric diagnoses (depression, anxiety, obsessive-compulsive disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, alcohol abuse, drug use, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, schizophrenia, and schizoaffective disorder) and court convictions of violent crimes. Birth weight (in kilograms) statistically adjusted for gestational age was the exposure.

Results  The mean (SD) age of the 1 093 788 participants was 27.2 (6.8) years (range, 15.1-40.9 years) and 51.5% were male. Nine outcomes were significantly associated with birth weight in the population at large: depression (odds ratio [OR], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95-0.98), anxiety (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.95), posttraumatic stress disorder (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.89-0.93), bipolar disorder (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-1.00), alcohol abuse (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.87-0.91), drug use (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85), violent crimes (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.83-0.86), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90), and autism (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97). Only depression (OR, 0.95; 95% CI 0.92-0.98), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82-0.89), and autism (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.69-0.76) remained significantly associated within sibling pairs. An exploratory factor analysis indicated that 1 general and 4 specific factors (capturing anxiety, externalizing, neurodevelopmental, and psychotic conditions) fit the outcomes well. Across almost all sensitivity analyses, an increase in birth weight by 1 kg significantly reduced the general (β, −0.047; 95% CI, −0.071 to −0.023) and the specific neurodevelopmental factors (β, −0.159; 95% CI, −0.190 to −0.128) within sibling pairs.

Conclusions and Relevance  Controlling for familial confounders, reduced fetal growth was associated with a small but significant increase in the general factor of psychopathology and a moderate increase in a specific neurodevelopmental factor.

A gamma-ray determination of the Universe’s star formation history

A gamma-ray determination of the Universe’s star formation history. The Fermi-LAT Collaboration. Science Nov 30 2018:Vol. 362, Issue 6418, pp. 1031-1034. DOI: 10.1126/science.aat8123

Gamma rays reveal the Universe's history

How many stars have formed in the Universe, and when did they do so? These fundamental questions are difficult to answer because there are systematic uncertainties in converting the light we observe into the total mass of stars in galaxies. The Fermi-LAT Collaboration addressed these questions by exploiting the way that gamma rays from distant blazars propagate through intergalactic space, which depends on the total amount of light emitted by all galaxies. The collaboration found that star formation peaked about 3 billion years after the Big Bang (see the Perspective by Prandini). Although this is similar to previous estimates from optical and infrared observations, the results provide valuable confirmation because they should be affected by different systematic effects.

Abstract: The light emitted by all galaxies over the history of the Universe produces the extragalactic background light (EBL) at ultraviolet, optical, and infrared wavelengths. The EBL is a source of opacity for gamma rays via photon-photon interactions, leaving an imprint in the spectra of distant gamma-ray sources. We measured this attenuation using 739 active galaxies and one gamma-ray burst detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. This allowed us to reconstruct the evolution of the EBL and determine the star formation history of the Universe over 90% of cosmic time. Our star formation history is consistent with independent measurements from galaxy surveys, peaking at redshift z ~ 2. Upper limits of the EBL at the epoch of reionization suggest a turnover in the abundance of faint galaxies at z ~ 6.

Macro‐Level Research on the Effect of Firearms Prevalence on Suicide Rates: The new analysis finds no significant effect

Macro‐Level Research on the Effect of Firearms Prevalence on Suicide Rates: A Systematic Review and New Evidence. Gary Kleck. Social Science Quarterly, https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12602

Abstract
Objective: To systematically review the methods and findings of previous macro‐level research on the effect of firearms prevalence on suicide rates, and carry out a better state‐level analysis.

Methods: A cross‐sectional model of suicide rates is estimated with weighted least squares, using direct survey measures of gun prevalence.

Results and Conclusion: Prior macro‐level research is afflicted by the use of small samples of large heterogeneous units, invalid measures of gun prevalence, and few controls for confounders. The methodologically soundest prior research indicates that gun prevalence affects rates of gun suicides, but not total suicides. The new analysis likewise finds no significant effect of gun prevalence on total suicide rates.

From 2018, Sleep to be social: The critical role of sleep and memory for social interaction

Diekelmann, S., Paulus, F., & Krach, S. (2018). Sleep to be social: The critical role of sleep and memory for social interaction. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 41, E10. doi:10.1017/S0140525X17001327

Abstract: Humans are highly social animals who critically need to remember information from social episodes in order to successfully navigate future social interactions. We propose that such episodic memories about social encounters are processed during sleep, following the learning experience, with sleep abstracting and consolidating social gist knowledge (e.g., beliefs, first impressions, or stereotypes) about others that supports relationships and interpersonal communication.

The Problem of Non-Shared Environment in Behavioral Genetics: Intrinsic stochasticity of molecular processes underlying individual development creates minor fluctuations in gene expression

The Problem of Non-Shared Environment in Behavioral Genetics. Oleg N. Tikhodeyev, Оlga V. Shcherbakova. Behavior Genetics, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10519-019-09950-1

Abstract: The role of non-shared environment (NSE) in the development of psychological traits is usually comparable with that of the genotype. However, no specific factors of NSE with significant impact on such traits have been discovered so far. We propose that the current failures in understanding the origin of NSE are at least partly due to the fact that behavioral genetics has left out one of the key sources of phenotypic variation. This source is the intrinsic stochasticity of molecular processes underlying individual development. At the critical stages of ontogeny, even minor fluctuations in gene expression or gene-product functioning can remarkably affect the phenotype; this role is experimentally proved in multiple model organisms. In the present paper, several mechanisms of molecular stochasticity, which could affect the development of psychological traits, are discussed. We propose to distinguish external NSE (any external differences) and internal NSE (intrinsic molecular stochasticity). Available data indicate that the impact of external NSE is likely to be low, which makes the presumptive role of internal NSE rather decisive. If our assumption is true, the paradigm of behavioral genetics should be revised, and comprehensive analysis of molecular stochasticity during individual development is strongly required.

India Ramps Up Spending On Coal Exploration

India Ramps Up Spending On Coal Exploration
Reuters, Feb 1 2019, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-ramps-spending-coal-exploration-164148471.html

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – The Indian government will increase spending on exploration of coal and lignite by 20 percent in the coming financial year but will slash funding for coal mine safety and conservation, according to the budget document released on Friday.

India is one of the world’s largest consumers of coal and rising imports of the fuel are adding to a burgeoning trade deficit, prompting the government to invest in developing more domestic resources.
In the 2019/20 financial year that begins in April, the government aims to spend 6 billion rupees ($84 million) on exploration of coal and lignite, the document for the 2019/20 budget showed.

At the same time, it will cut spending on conservation, safety and related infrastructure development by about a third from last year to 1.35 billion rupees, according to the document.

India is one of the most dangerous countries in the world to be a coal miner, with one miner dying every six days on average in 2017, according to government data, but this will be the second straight year that the government has cut spending on safety.

The coal ministry said that coal companies had their own safety budgets….

The coal ministry said it had increased spending for exploration in 2019/20 to develop more coal blocks to increase domestic coal production and minimize imports.

“This will also enable (the) release of more coal blocks for auction/allocation,” the ministry said.

 [...]

Learning curves & teaching when acquiring nut-cracking: Chimpanzees more rapidly acquired the technique when an apprentice, and reached adult efficiency earlier than humans

Learning curves and teaching when acquiring nut-cracking in humans and chimpanzees. Christophe Boesch, Daša Bombjaková, Amelia Meier & Roger Mundry. Scientific Reports, volume 9, Article number: 1515 (2019). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-38392-8

Abstract: Humans are considered superior to other species in their tool using skills. However, most of our knowledge about animals comes from observations in artificial conditions with individuals removed from their natural environment. We present a first comparison of humans and chimpanzees spontaneously acquiring the same technique as they forage in their natural environment. We compared the acquisition of the Panda nut-cracking technique between Mbendjele foragers from the Republic of Congo and the Taï chimpanzees from Côte d’Ivoire. Both species initially acquire the technique slowly with similar kinds of mistakes, with years of practice required for the apprentice to become expert. Chimpanzees more rapidly acquired the technique when an apprentice, and reached adult efficiency earlier than humans. Adult efficiencies in both species did not differ significantly. Expert-apprentice interactions showed many similar instances of teaching in both species, with more variability in humans due, in part to their more complex technique. While in humans, teaching occurred both vertically and obliquely, only the former existed in chimpanzees. This comparison of the acquisition of a natural technique clarifies how the two species differed in their technical intelligence. Furthermore, our observations support the idea of teaching in both species being more frequent for difficult skills.

Taxing Top Earners: The revenue maximizing top tax rate is approximately 49 percent in a quantitative human capital model, instead of the recently established view of 73pct

Taxing Top Earners: A Human Capital Perspective. Alejandro Badel, Mark Huggett, Wenlan Luo. July 9, 2018. http://faculty.georgetown.edu/mh5/research/top-earners.pdf

Abstract: An established view is that the revenue maximizing top tax rate for the US is approximately 73percent. The revenue maximizing top tax rate is approximately 49 percent in a quantitative human capital model. The key reason for the lower top tax rate is the presence of two new forces not captured by the model underlying the established view. These new forces are strengthened by the endogenous response of top earners’ human capital to a change in the top tax rate.

Keywords: Human Capital, Marginal Tax Rates, Top Earners, Laffer Curve

Owner personality and the wellbeing of their cats share parallels with the parent-child relationship

Owner personality and the wellbeing of their cats share parallels with the parent-child relationship. Lauren R. Finka, Joanna Ward, Mark J. Farnworth, Daniel S. Mills. PLOS February 5, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211862

Abstract: Human personality may substantially affect the nature of care provided to dependants. This link has been well researched in parents and children, however, relatively little is known about this dynamic with regards to humans’ relationships with non-human animals. Owner interactions with companion animals may provide valuable insight into the wider phenomenon of familial interactions, as owners usually adopt the role of primary caregiver and potentially surrogate parent. This study, using cats as an exemplar, explored the relationship between owner personality and the lifestyles to which cats are exposed. In addition, it explored owner personality as it related to reported cat behaviour and wellbeing. Cat owners (n = 3331) responded to an online survey examining their personality and the health, behaviour and management of their cats. Owner personality was measured using the Big Five Inventory (BFI) to assess: Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Extroversion, Neuroticism and Openness. Owners also provided information concerning the physical health, breed type, management and behavioural styles of their cats. Generalised linear mixed models were used to identify relationships between owner personality and a range of factors that may have welfare implications for the wider companion animal population, and specifically, cats. Higher owner Neuroticism was associated with an increased likelihood of non-pedigree rather than pedigree cat ownership, a decreased likelihood of ad libitum access to the outdoors, cats being reported as having a ‘behavioural problem’, displaying more aggressive and anxious/fearful behavioural styles and more stress-related sickness behaviours, as well as having an ongoing medical condition and being overweight. Other owner personality traits were generally found to correlate more positively with various lifestyle, behaviour and welfare parameters. For example, higher owner Extroversion was associated with an increased likelihood that the cat would be provided ad libitum access to the outdoors; higher owner Agreeableness was associated with a higher level of owner reported satisfaction with their cat, and with a greater likelihood of owners reporting their cats as being of a normal weight. Finally higher owner Conscientiousness was associated with the cat displaying less anxious/fearful, aggressive, aloof/avoidant, but more gregarious behavioural styles. These findings demonstrate that the relationship between carer personality and the care received by a dependent, may extend beyond the human family to animal-owner relationships, with significant implications for the choice of management, behaviour and potentially the broader wellbeing of companion animals.

Christians and Buddhists Are Comparably Happy on Twitter: A Large-Scale Linguistic Analysis of Religious Differences in Social, Cognitive, and Emotional Tendencies

Christians and Buddhists Are Comparably Happy on Twitter: A Large-Scale Linguistic Analysis of Religious Differences in Social, Cognitive, and Emotional Tendencies. Chih-Yu Chen1 and Tsung-Ren Huang. Front. Psychol., 06 February 2019 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00113

Abstract: Are different religions associated with different social, cognitive, and emotional tendencies? Although major world religions are known to encourage social interactions and help regulate emotions, it is less clear to what extent adherents of various religions differ in these dimensions in daily life. We thus carried out a large-scale sociolinguistic analysis of social media messages of Christians and Buddhists living in the United States. After controlling for age and gender effects on linguistic patterns, we found that Christians used more social words and fewer cognitive words than Buddhists. Moreover, adherents of both religions, similarly used more positive than negative emotion words on Twitter, although overall, Christians were slightly more positive in verbal emotional expression than Buddhists. These sociolinguistic patterns of actual rather than ideal behaviors were also paralleled by language used in the popular sacred texts of Christianity and Buddhism, with the exception that Christian texts contained more negative and fewer positive emotion words than Buddhist texts. Taken together, our results suggest that the direct or indirect influence of religious texts on the receivers of their messages may partially, but not fully, account for the verbal behavior of religious adherents.

The presence of an observing other curbs unethical behaviour; the mere presence of others does not reduce unethical behaviour if they do not observe the participant

Köbis, Nils, Simone van der Lingen, Terence D. Dores Cruz, Daniel Iragorri-Carter, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Francesca Righetti, and Paul van Lange. 2019. “The Look over Your Shoulder: Unethical Behaviour Decreases in the Physical Presence of Observers.” PsyArXiv. February 5. doi:10.31234/osf.io/gxu96

Abstract: Research in behavioural ethics repeatedly emphasizes the importance of others for people’s decisions to break ethical rules. Yet, in most lab experiments participants faced ethical dilemmas in full privacy settings. We conducted three experiments in which we compare such private set-ups to situations in which a second person is co-present in the lab. Study 1 manipulated whether that second person was a mere observer or co-benefitted from the participants’ unethical behaviour. Study 2 investigated social proximity between participant and observer –being a friend versus a stranger. Study 3 tested whether the mere presence of another person who cannot observe the participant’s behaviour suffices to decrease unethical behaviour. By using different behavioural paradigms of unethical behaviour, we obtain three main results: first, the presence of an observing other curbs unethical behaviour. Second, neither the payoff structure (Study 1) nor the social proximity towards the observing other (Study 2) qualifies this effect. Third, the mere presence of others does not reduce unethical behaviour if they do not observe the participant (Study 3). Implications, limitations and avenues for future research are discussed.

The Gender Gap in Orgasms–We find a strong association between women’s orgasms & the type of sexual behavior in which partners engage: Women who receive oral sex are more likely to reach orgasm

The Gender Gap in Orgasms: Survey Data from a Mid-Sized Canadian City. Nicole Andrejek & Tina Fetner. International Journal of Sexual Health, https://doi.org/10.1080/19317611.2018.1563014

Abstract

Objective: Previous research has established a gap in orgasm frequency between men and women. This study investigates explanations for the gender gap in orgasm.

Methods: Crosstab analysis and logistic regression are used to examine the gender gap in orgasms from one Canadian city: Hamilton, Ontario (N = 194).

Results: We find a strong association between women’s orgasms and the type of sexual behavior in which partners engage. Women who receive oral sex are more likely to reach orgasm.

Conclusion: Sexual practices focused on clitoral stimulation are important to reducing the gender gap in orgasms.

Keywords: Sexualities, orgasm, gender, survey, sexual behavior

The subjective nature of humor in Internet trolling depends on whether an individual has trolled; the groups that indicated trolling as a “bullying” behavior were the groups who had never been trolled

A Qualitative Analysis of Internet Trolling. Evita March, and Jessica Marrington. Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/cyber.2018.0210

Abstract: Internet trolling is receiving increasing research attention and exploration; however, disagreement and confusion surround definitions of the behavior. In the current study, 379 participants (60 percent women) completed an online questionnaire providing qualitative responses to the following: How do you define Internet trolling? What kind of behaviors constitutes Internet trolling? Does Internet trolling differ from Internet cyberbullying? Have you ever been trolled online, and if so how did it feel? Word frequency analyses indicated that Internet trolling is most commonly characterized as an abusive aggressive behavior. Responses also highlight the subjective nature of humor in trolling depending on whether an individual has trolled. Interestingly, the groups that indicated trolling as a “bullying” behavior were the groups who had never been trolled. Results of the current study highlight the need to differentiate between “kudos” trolling and Cyber Abuse.

Even psychological placebos have an effect

Effects and Components of Placebos with a Psychological Treatment Rationale – Three Randomized-Controlled Studies. Jens Gaab, Joe Kossowsky, Ulrike Ehlert, Cosima Locher. Scientific Reports (2019), doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-37945-1

Abstract: In recent years, placebos have evolved from a mean to control for ‘therapeutic chaff’ to something that has clinically relevant effects with biological underpinning and that is considered to have clinical as well as scientific potential. However, the wealth of scientific placebo research is conceptualized in a biomedical context, i.e. based on placebos provided with a biomedical treatment rationale, whereas little is known about effects and mechanisms of placebos provided with a psychological treatment rationale. This has important repercussions not only on placebo research, but also on attempts to establish specificity of psychological interventions, such as psychotherapy. Therefore, we set out to assess the effects and possible components of placebos provided with a psychological treatment rationale in three experiments on healthy subjects. We show that placebos provided with a psychological treatment rationale are effective in short- as well as mid-term, but only when provided by a trustworthy, friendly and empathetic experimenter. These findings indicate that placebos are effective outside the medical context and thus need be controlled for in non-medical trials. Furthermore, it highlights and confirms the importance of a plausible psychological treatment rationale in the context of a therapeutic alliance for psychological interventions, such as psychotherapy.

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Press release: Even psychological placebos have an effect. Reto Caluori. Universität Basel Kommunikation & Marketing, Feb 05 2019. https://idw-online.de/de/news710065

Women’s preferences for more masculine looking men are stronger in countries with higher sociosexuality and where national health indices and human development indices are higher

Marcinkowska UM, Rantala MJ, Lee AJ, Kozlov MV, Aavik T, Cai H, Contreras-Garduño J, David OA, Kaminski G, Li NP, Onyishi IE, Prasai K, Pazhoohi F, Prokop P & Rosales Cardozo SL (2018) Women's preferences for men's facial masculinity are strongest under favourable ecological conditions. Scientific Reports. https://dspace.stir.ac.uk/handle/1893/28677

Abstract: The strength of sexual selection on secondary sexual traits varies depending on prevailing economic and ecological conditions. In humans, cross-cultural evidence suggesting women's preferences for men’s testosterone dependent masculine facial traits are stronger under conditions where health is compromised, male mortality rates are higher and economic development is higher. Here we use a sample of 4483 exclusively heterosexual women from 34 countries and employ mixed effects modelling to test how social, ecological and economic variables predict women’s facial masculinity preferences. We report women’s preferences for more masculine looking men are stronger in countries with higher sociosexuality and where national health indices and human development indices are higher, while no associations were found between preferences and indices of intra-sexual competition. Our results show that women’s preferences for masculine faces are stronger under conditions where offspring survival is higher and economic conditions more favorable.

Both Republicans and Democrats exhibit a strong tendency to consume news stories depicting disunity in the outparty

Fight Clubs: Media Coverage of Party (Dis)unity and Citizens’ Selective Exposure to It. John V. Kane. Political Research Quarterly, https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912919827106

Abstract: News media play a key role in communicating information about political parties to the American public. However, our understanding of how media depict relations between elites and the broader party coalitions remains limited. Moreover, while research suggests that forced exposure to such information can affect political attitudes, it remains unclear whether citizens are willing to selectively expose themselves to such communications. To address these two interrelated questions, this study first employs a content analysis to explore patterns in news coverage of inter- and intra-party relations throughout the Obama presidency. Next, two survey experiments investigate the degree to which such relations affect citizens’ self-exposure to such information. Taken together, the analyses uncover two important asymmetries. First, throughout Obama’s presidency, mass media depicted a Republican coalition virtually always against the president, yet substantial discord within the Democratic Party. Second, though partisans show no propensity to consume news depicting inparty unity (vs. disunity), both Republicans and Democrats exhibit a strong tendency to consume news stories depicting disunity in the outparty. Insofar as partisans’ self-exposure to such information is a necessary precondition for attitudinal and behavioral change, these findings have notable implications for how mass media stand to shape partisanship in the United States.

Keywords: media, self-exposure, partisanship, party unity, cognitive dissonance, schadenfreude

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The survey experiments reveal a second asymmetry. Specifically, the experimental results indicate that, while partisans were nearly equally likely to select news arti-cles discussing inparty unity (vs. news articles discussing inparty disunity), both Republicans and Democrats were far more likely to select a news story depicting outparty disunity (vs. outparty unity or the control condition)—that is, the story in which the president was reported to have alienated a key group in his party’s base. The finding concerning inparty members’ behavior deviates somewhat from the “cognitive dissonance” argument, which would suggest that partisans will avoid self-exposure to information that challenges their existing beliefs and loyalties (Festinger 1962). At the same time, the findings regarding outparty members’ behavior offer additional support for the notion that partisans seek out information that is likely to result in “political schaden-freude” (Combs et al. 2009; Hareli and Weiner 2002).

Again, in light of research which argues that beliefs about the parties’ relations with groups are consequential for citizens’ partisan orientations (Green, Palmquist, and Schickler 2002), as well as recent research on how information about partisan polarization and partisan infighting can affect citizens’ policy attitudes and willingness to compromise (Druckman, Peterson, and Slothuus 2013; Groeling 2010; Kane 2016b), the findings of the present study come with important implications for the manner by which mass media can shape partisanship

Knowing which plants are beneficial or dangerous is a task that we cannot achieve alone; 8- to 18-month-old infants show more social looking toward adults when confronted with plants compared to other objects

The seeds of social learning: Infants exhibit more social looking for plants than other object types. Claudia E lsner, Annie E.Wertz. Cognition, Volume 183, February 2019, Pages 244-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.09.016

Highlights
•    Infants look more often to adults when confronted with plants compared to other object types.
•    The increased social looking occurs in the time before infants touch plants.
•    This strategy enables infants to glean information from others before exposure to potentially dangerous plants.

Abstract: Infants must negotiate encounters with a wide variety of different entities over the course of the first few years of life, yet investigations of their social referencing behavior have largely focused on a limited set of objects and situations such as unfamiliar toys and the visual cliff. Here we examine whether infants’ social looking strategies differ when they are confronted with plants. Plants have been fundamental to human life throughout our evolutionary history, and learning about which plants are beneficial and which are dangerous is a task that, for humans, cannot be achieved alone. Using an object exploration paradigm, we found that 8- to 18-month-old infants exhibited more social looking toward adults when confronted with plants compared to other object types. Further, this increased social looking occurred when infants first encountered plants, in the time before touching them. This social looking strategy puts infants in the best position to glean information from others before making contact with potentially dangerous plants. These findings provide a new lens through which to view infants’ social information seeking behavior.

Small minorities report feeling partisan schadenfreude or endorse partisan violence; inducing expectations of electoral victory give strong partisans more confidence to endorse violence against their opponents

Lethal Mass Partisanship: Prevalence, Correlates, & Electoral Contingencies. Nathan P. Kalmoe, Lilliana Mason. PResetnation at the January 2019 NCAPSA American Politics Meeting. https://www.dannyhayes.org/uploads/6/9/8/5/69858539/kalmoe___mason_ncapsa_2019_-_lethal_partisanship_-_final_lmedit.pdf

Abstract: U.S. historical accounts of partisanship recognize its contentiousness and its inherent, latent threat of violence, but social scientific conceptions of partisan identity developed in quiescent times have largely missed that dangerous dimension. We rebalance scholarly accounts by investigating the national prevalence and correlates of 1) partisan moral disengagement that rationalizes harm against opponents, 2) partisan schadenfreude in response to deaths and injuries of political opponents, and 3) explicit support for partisan violence. In two nationally representative surveys, we find large portions of partisans embrace partisan moral disengagement ( 10 - 60%) but only small minorities report feeling partisan schadenfreude or endorse partisan violence (5 - 15 %). Party identity strength and trait aggression consistently increase each kind of extreme party view. Finally, experimental evidence shows inducing expectations of electoral victory give strong partisans more confidence to endorse violence against their partisan opponents. We conclude with reflections on the risks of lethal partisanship in democratic politics, even as parties continue to serve as essential bedrocks of democracy.


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The remaining moral disengagement items in Figure 1 indicate support ranging from about 10 perc ent of the sample (MD10 .  .Breaking a few rules to help [own party] win does no lasting harm.) to 50 percent (MD8 among Democrats .  .[Own party] are not just better for politics .  they are morally right.). The most disturbing items may be those comparing o utgroup partisans to animals (MD5 and MD9). About 20 percent of respondents agree with these items in the CCES data,. Furthermore, MD7, which rates the degree to which respondents believe opposing partisans have their hearts in the right place, is only end orsed by about 30 percent of partisans , meaning that more than 60 percent of respondents do not hold this more generous belief.  Taken as a whole, even the lower bounds of partisan moral disengagement provide some cause for concern. Extrapolated to the elec torate at large, this figure represents many millions of partisans.

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Table 1. Partisan Hostility Items

Moral Disengagement

MD1

Would you say [Opposing party] are a serious threat to the United States and its people, or wouldn’t you go that far?

MD2

Only [Own party] want to improve our country.

MD3

[Opposing party] are not just worse for politics—they are downright evil.

MD4

If [Own party] break a few rules to oppose [Opposing party], it’s because they needto do it for the sake of the country.

MD5

If [Opposing party] are going to behave badly, they should be treated like animals.

MD6

[Opposing party] deserve any mistreatment they get from [Own party].

MD7

[Opposing party] have their heart in the right place but just come to different conclusions about what is best.

[reverse-coded]

MD8

[Own party] are not just better for politics—they are morally right.

MD9

Many [Opposing party] lack the traits to be considered fully human—they behave like animals.

MD10

Breaking a few rules to help [Own party] win does no lasting harm.

Partisan Schadenfreude

PS1

If you heard a politician had died of cancer, would your feelings about that depend on whether they were a Republican or a Democrat?

PS2

If you heard a politician had been murdered, would your feelings about that depend on whether they were a Republican or a  Democrat?

PS3

Have you ever wished that someone would physically injure one or more politicians?[Yes, outparty]

PS4

When a [Own party] politician votes against the party on a key issue, have you ever wished they would get sick and die?

PS5

Who would you rather see bad things happen to: [Opposing party] politicians, or[Own party] politicians who vote against the party on a key issue? [Answer: outparty]

PS6

Do you ever think: we’d be better off as a country if large numbers of [Opposingparty] in the public today just died?

Political Violence

PV1

When, if ever, is it OK for [Own party] to send threatening and intimidating messagesto [Opposing party] leaders?

PV2

When, if ever, is it OK for an ordinary [Own party] in the public to harass an ordinary [Opposing party] on the Internet, in a way that makes the target feel unsafe?

PV3

How much do you feel it is justified for [Own party] to use violence in advancing their political goals these days?

PV4

What if [Opposing party] win the 2020 presidential election? How much do you feel violence would be justified then?

“Unsafe” was replaced with “frightened” in the Nielsen survey.

Church of Sweden, 2014: Complaints about female priests are increasing & are now occurring at the same rate as for male priests, but no female priests have been prohibited yet (in 2014)

Complaints about Priests in the Church of Sweden from 2001–2013. Per Hansson. Scandinavian Journal for Leadership & Theology, ISSN 0281-0573, E-ISSN 1891-473X, Vol. 4. http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1169754&dswid=-4865

Abstract: Media coverage of complaints about priests has generally focused on sexual misbehavior. This case study of complaints about priests in the Church of Sweden from 2001–2013 gives a much more varied picture. Documentation of all the complaints received during 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was collected. In all, there are 199 complaints, which correspond to approximately 1.2% of priests every year. The rate of complaints rose and doubled, peaking in 2010. The complaints are categorized in three categories: general complaints, complaints that can lead to prohibition and other complaints. The most common complainant was the private individual (42%), although bishops and colleagues were also responsible for some of the complaints. During the years studied, private complaints increased. This finding is interpreted to reflect an increasing tendency in Swedish society to complain. Complaints about female priests are increasing and are now occurring at the same rate as for male priests. However, no female priests have been prohibited yet; only males have been. Sexual issues account for 15% of the complaints, which are outnumbered by other complaints. Decisions made by the Church chapters have changed during the studied years; earlier, the most common decision was to take no ac- tion, but later, the chapters generally decided on some type of action (for example, commissioning someone to talk to the priest or to give a statement).

Keywords: priests, misbehavior, professional misconduct, Church of Sweden

Trends in the Diffusion of Misinformation on Social Media: Interactions with false content have fallen sharply on Facebook while continuing to rise on Twitter

Trends in the Diffusion of Misinformation on Social Media. Hunt Allcott, Matthew Gentzkow, Chuan Yu. NBER Working Paper No. 25500, January 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25500

Abstract: In recent years, there has been widespread concern that misinformation on social media is damaging societies and democratic institutions. In response, social media platforms have announced actions to limit the spread of false content. We measure trends in the diffusion of content from 569 fake news websites and 9,540 fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between January 2015 and July 2018. User interactions with false content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through the end of 2016. Since then, however, interactions with false content have fallen sharply on Facebook while continuing to rise on Twitter, with the ratio of Facebook engagements to Twitter shares decreasing by 60 percent. In comparison, interactions with other news, business, or culture sites have followed similar trends on both platforms. Our results suggest that the relative magnitude of the misinformation problem on Facebook has declined since its peak.

Mature counterfactual reasoning in 4- and 5-year-olds: Given a clear and novel causal structure, preschoolers display adult-like counterfactual reasoning. Not so 3-year-olds.

Mature counterfactual reasoning in 4- and 5-year-olds. Angela Nyhout, Patricia A. Ganea. Cognition, Volume 183, February 2019, Pages 57-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.027

Abstract: Counterfactual reasoning is a hallmark of the human imagination. Recently, researchers have argued that children do not display genuine counterfactual reasoning until they can reason about events that are overdetermined and consider the removal of one of multiple causes that lead to the same outcome. This ability has been shown to emerge between 6 and 12 years of age. In 3 experiments, we used an overdetermined physical causation task to investigate preschoolers’ ability to reason counterfactually. In Experiment 1a, preschoolers (N = 96) were presented with a “blicket-detector” machine. Children saw both overdetermined (2 causal blocks on a box) and single-cause trials (1 causal and 1 non-causal block) and were asked what would have happened if one of the two blocks had not been placed on the box. Four-year-olds' performance was above chance on both trial types, and 5-year-olds' performance was at ceiling, whereas 3-year-olds did not perform above chance on any trial types. These findings were replicated in Experiment 1b with 4- and 5-year-olds (N = 40) using more complex question wording. In Experiment 2 (N = 40, 4- and 5-year-olds), we introduced a temporal delay between the placement of the first and second block to test the robustness of children's counterfactual reasoning. Even on this more difficult version of the task, performance was significantly above chance. Given a clear and novel causal structure, preschoolers display adult-like counterfactual reasoning.

A Survey on BDSM-related Activities: BDSM Experience Correlates with Age of First Exposure, Interest Profile, and Role Identity

A Survey on BDSM-related Activities: BDSM Experience Correlates with Age of First Exposure, Interest Profile, and Role Identity. V. Coppens, S. Ten Brink, W. Huys, E. Fransen & M. Morrens. The Journal of Sex Research, Volume 57, 2020 - Issue 1 (online Jan 2019). https://doi.org/10.1080/00224499.2018.1558437

Abstract: BDSM is an omnibus term covering a spectrum of activities within bondage/discipline, dominance/submission, and sadism/masochism relationships. To date, BDSM practitioners experience stigma due to a general unfamiliarity with the practice and marginalization of this type of sexual behavior. Destigmatization occurs partly through knowledge expansion and identification with the stigmatized group. In this study within the Belgian population, we aimed to characterize certain aspects of socioeconomic status and specific BDSM preferences of individuals with differing BDSM experience levels. We show that individuals who perform BDSM in a community setting (BDSM clubs, events. BDSM-CP) are generally higher educated, are significantly younger when first becoming aware of their inclination toward kink-oriented sex, and have a more strict BDSM role identity (Dom vs. Sub) than individuals who engage in BDSM-related activities in a private setting (BDSM-PP). This latter group in turn display a more pronounced Dom/Sub identification than individuals who only fantasize about the practice (BDSM-F). Our data indicate BDSM interest is a sexual preference already manifesting at early age, with role identification profiles becoming gradually more pronounced based on the practitioner’s contextual experience.

We are all racist rats. From 2011 – Peace does not depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well defined topographical and political boundaries separating groups

From 2011 – Good Fences:The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence. Alex Rutherford, Dion Harmon, Justin Werfel,Shlomiya Bar-Yam, Alexander Gard-Murray, Andreas Gros, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. New England Complex Systems Institute, October 6, 2011. http://necsi.edu/research/social/scienceofpeace.pdf

Abstract: We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing a theory designedto predict the locations of violence and interventions that can promote peace. Characterizingthe model’s success in predicting peace requires examples where peace prevails despite diversity. Switzerland is recognized as a country of peace, stability and prosperity. This is surprising because of its linguistic and religious diversity that in other parts of the world lead to conflict and violence.Here we analyze how peaceful stability is maintained. Our analysis shows that peace does not depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well defined topographical and political boundaries separating groups. Mountains and lakes are an important part of the boundaries between sharply defined linguistic areas. Political canton and circle (sub-canton) boundaries often separate religious groups. Where such boundaries do not appear to be sufficient, we find that specific aspects of the population distribution either guarantee sufficient separation or sufficient mixing to inhibit intergroup violence according to the quantitative theory of conflict. In exactly one region, a porous mountain range does not adequately separate linguistic groups and violent conflict has led to the recent creation of the canton of Jura. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that violence between groups can be inhibited by physical and political boundaries. A similar analysis of the area of the former Yugoslavia shows that during widespread ethnic violence existing political boundaries did not coincide with the boundaries of distinct groups, but peace prevailed in specific areas wherethey did coincide. The success of peace in Switzerland may serve as a model to resolve conflict in other ethnically diverse countries and regions of the world.

Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors

Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors. Alexander M. Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, John Van Reenen. NBER Working Paper No. 25493, January 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25493

Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to research and development grants. In this paper, we study how such financial incentives affect individuals' decisions to pursue careers in innovation. We first present empirical evidence on inventors' career trajectories and income distributions using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records in the U.S. We find that the private returns to innovation are extremely skewed – with the top 1% of inventors collecting more than 22% of total inventors' income – and are highly correlated with their social impact, as measured by citations. Inventors tend to have their most impactful innovations around age 40 and their incomes rise rapidly just before they have high-impact patents. We then build a stylized model of inventor career choice that matches these facts as well as recent evidence that childhood exposure to innovation plays a critical role in determining whether individuals become inventors. The model predicts that financial incentives, such as top income tax reductions, have limited potential to increase aggregate innovation because they only affect individuals who are exposed to innovation and have no impact on the decisions of star inventors, who matter most for aggregate innovation. Importantly, these results hold regardless of whether the private returns to innovation are known at the time of career choice. In contrast, increasing exposure to innovation (e.g., through mentorship programs) could have substantial impacts on innovation by drawing individuals who produce high-impact inventions into the innovation pipeline. Although we do not present direct evidence supporting these model-based predictions, our results call for a more careful assessment of the impacts of financial incentives and a greater focus on alternative policies to increase the supply of inventors.

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Why Tyler Cowen is not convinced: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/02/do-tax-cuts-produce-more-einsteins.html

Something that most Libertarians already said: "In all, capital markets are more efficient than previously recognized." In some way, we are predictable, likely due to our mental rigidities

Something that most Libertarians already said: "In all, capital markets are more efficient than previously recognized." In some way, we are predictable, likely due to our mental rigidities.

Replicating Anomalies. Kewei Hou Chen Xue Lu Zhang. The Review of Financial Studies, hhy131, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy131

Abstract: Most anomalies fail to hold up to currently acceptable standards for empirical finance. With microcaps mitigated via NYSE breakpoints and value-weighted returns, 65% of the 452 anomalies in our extensive data library, including 96% of the trading frictions category, cannot clear the single test hurdle of the absolute t-value of 1.96. Imposing the higher multiple test hurdle of 2.78 at the 5% significance level raises the failure rate to 82%. Even for replicated anomalies, their economic magnitudes are much smaller than originally reported. In all, capital markets are more efficient than previously recognized.