Why thinking over & over about something leads to ever more thoughts about it: Future voluntary imagery can be decoded from activity patterns in the brain up to 11 secs before engaging in voluntary imagery

Decoding the contents and strength of imagery before volitional engagement. Roger Koenig-Robert & Joel Pearson. Scientific Reports, volume 9, Article number: 3504 (2019). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-39813-y

Abstract: Is it possible to predict the freely chosen content of voluntary imagery from prior neural signals? Here we show that the content and strength of future voluntary imagery can be decoded from activity patterns in visual and frontal areas well before participants engage in voluntary imagery. Participants freely chose which of two images to imagine. Using functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) and multi-voxel pattern analysis, we decoded imagery content as far as 11 seconds before the voluntary decision, in visual, frontal and subcortical areas. Decoding in visual areas in addition to perception-imagery generalization suggested that predictive patterns correspond to visual representations. Importantly, activity patterns in the primary visual cortex (V1) from before the decision, predicted future imagery vividness. Our results suggest that the contents and strength of mental imagery are influenced by sensory-like neural representations that emerge spontaneously before volition.

Introduction

A large amount of psychology and, more recently, neuroscience has been dedicated to examining the origins, dynamics and categories of thoughts1,2,3. Sometimes, thoughts feel spontaneous and even surprising; while other times they feel effortful, controlled and goal oriented. When we decide to think about something, how much of that thought is biased by pre-existent neural activity? Mental imagery, a sensory thought, can be triggered voluntarily or involuntarily4. However, how much of the content and strength of our mental images we actually control when we voluntarily generate imagery remains unknown. For example, individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) report a complete lack of control of both the content and strength of their mental imagery5. While evidence suggests that imagery strength varies both between and within individuals in the normal population5,6. Previous research has shown that prefrontal activity can predict future decisions7,8,9,10, and nonconscious sensory activity11, and that mental images can be decoded from early visual cortex12,13. However, it remains unknown whether nonconscious sensory activity influences what we think and how strongly we think it.

To investigate the origins of the content and strength of voluntary imagery, we crafted a thought-based mental imagery decision task, in which individuals could freely decide what to imagine, while we recorded brain activation using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We used multi-voxel pattern analysis (MVPA, see Materials and Methods for details) to decode information contained in spatial patterns of brain activation recorded using fMRI14,15,16. Additionally, in an independent control experiment, we estimated the temporal reliability of the reported onset of thoughts, as it has been criticized in previous paradigms17. Using a design exploiting the known effect of imagery priming on subsequent binocular rivalry as a function of time18, we show that participants’ reports of thought onsets were indeed reliable within the temporal resolution of fMRI.

Models of determinants of decision making postulate that executive areas in the prefrontal cortex would trigger selection processes leading to future choices9,10,19. In addition to the executive areas involvement in future visual thoughts, we aimed to test whether predictive information could also be decoded from visual areas, as previous results have shown that visual imagery recruits visual areas12,13. To test this, we used both searchlight and visual (from V1 to V4) regions-of-interest (ROI) decoding. We also sought to determine the representational content of the predictive signals: is predictive information, to some extent, similar to perceptual visual representations? To assess this, we perceptually presented gratings outside of attention to participants in separate runs. Functional brain images from the perceptual blocks were then used to train classifiers, which were subsequently tested on imagery blocks both before and after the decision. This so called perception-imagery generalization cross decoding was thus used to show common informational content between visual perceptual representations and predictive signals. Finally, we tested whether the subjective strength of visual imagery could be decoded from information in visual areas before reported volition. Such an involvement of visual areas in the future strength of visual imagery would provide further evidence that sensory areas also play an important role in the phenomenology of future thoughts.

Using this paradigm, we found that activity patterns were predictive of mental imagery content as far back as 11 seconds before the voluntary decision of what to imagine –in visual, frontal and subcortical areas. Importantly, predictive patterns in the primary visual cortex (V1) and the lateral prefrontal cortex were similar to perceptual representations elicited by unattended images. We show that the subjective strength (vividness) of future mental imagery can be predicted from activation patterns contained in the primary visual cortex (V1) before a decision is made. Our results suggest that the contents and strength of mental imagery are influenced by sensory-like neural representations that emerge spontaneously before volition. These results are important as they point to a role of visual areas in the pre-volitional processes leading to visual thought production, thus shedding light on the mechanisms of intrusive mental imagery in conditions such as PTSD, as well as the origins of normal mental imagery.

Concluding remarks and future directions

Our current study can be seen as the first to capture the possible origins and contents of involuntary thoughts and how they progress into or bias subsequent voluntary imagery. This is compatible with the finding that the most prominent differences between low and high vividness trials are seen for the pre-imagery period in visual areas, especially the primary visual cortex, which can be interpreted as when one of the patterns is more strongly represented it will induce a more vivid subsequent volitional mental image. This is in line with reports showing that imagery vividness depends on the relative overlap of the patterns of activation elicited by visual perception and imagery45. Our results expand that finding by showing that the vividness of future visual thoughts is predicted by information stored in the primary visual cortex.

It is up to future research to reveal whether representations biasing subsequent voluntary imagery are genuinely non-conscious or not. This will not only shed light on age-old questions of volition, but also provide a clear mechanism for pathological intrusive thoughts common across multiple mental disorders.

Evidence of a pure collaboration effect, distinct from motivations of future reciprocity, in-group favouritism or concern for accountability

Experimental evidence for a pure collaboration effect. Mary C. McGrath & Alan S. Gerber. Nature Human Behaviour (2019), Feb 18 2019, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0530-9

Abstract: What makes us willing to sacrifice our own self-interest for another person? Humans can forgo short-term individual gain to achieve long-term benefits1,2,3,4—but long-run self-interest cannot fully explain unselfish behaviour5. Collaboration in our evolutionary past may have played a role in shaping an innate human sense of distributive justice6, influencing who we consider deserving of our aid or generosity. Previous research has not been able to isolate this response to collaboration as an independent effect, distinct from other motivations to share7,8. Here we present evidence of a pure collaboration effect, distinct from motivations of future reciprocity, in-group favouritism or concern for accountability. We demonstrate this effect among adult subjects in an economic setting, showing that the effect constitutes a psychological phenomenon with relevance for real-world social and political behaviour. This collaboration effect is substantial: it motivates sharing among people otherwise inclined to share nothing and increases the proportion of participants willing to give up half of their allotted money. We find evidence supporting our hypothesis that the collaboration effect operates by creating a sense of debt owed to one’s collaborator.

Men significantly donated money or other items to panhandlers more often while in the presence of a woman, using this display of generosity and wealth to signal positive attributes to potential mates

Distribution of Resources to Panhandlers as a Male Display of Potential Mate Quality. Amy Webb & Maryanne L. Fisher. Human Ethology Bulletin, Volume 33, No 4, 28-36,  Dec 31, 2018. DOI:  https://doi.org/10.22330/heb/332/028-036

ABSTRACT: Evolutionary psychological theory predicts that because women generally prefer men with resources, men will display their generosity and wealth in order to gain positive attention from potential mates. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to examine men’s displays of generosity and wealth in the presence versus absence of women. We hypothesized that men would donate money or other items most often in the presence of women, compared to while walking alone or in the presence of other men. We performed observations along busy pedestrian streets in Atlantic Canada, and documented the frequency with which men stopped to provide money or items to those begging (“panhandling”) for resources. Our results supported our hypothesis, as men significantly donated money or other items more often while walking in the presence of a woman, as compared to any other condition. We propose that men are using this display of generosity and wealth to signal positive attributes to potential mates. This finding offers a new avenue in which to test theories regarding mate preferences in a natural setting.

Keywords: Mate preferences, Resources, Ethology, Mate quality, Observation.


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Human Ethology Bulletin 33(2018)4: 28-36
Research Article
DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES TO PANHANDLERS AS A
MALE DISPLAY OF POTENTIAL MATE QUALITY
Amy Webb1 & Maryanne L. Fisher2
1Human Sexuality Research Laboratory, School of Psychology, University of Ottawa, Canada
2Department of Psychology, Saint Mary’s University, Halifax, Canada
awebb069@uottawa.ca
ABSTRACT
Evolutionary psychological theory predicts that because women generally prefer men with
resources, men will display their generosity and wealth in order to gain positive attention from
potential mates. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to examine men’s displays of
generosity and wealth in the presence versus absence of women. We hypothesized that men
would donate money or other items most often in the presence of women, compared to while
walking alone or in the presence of other men. We performed observations along busy
pedestrian streets in Atlantic Canada, and documented the frequency with which men stopped
to provide money or items to those begging (“panhandling”) for resources. Our results
supported our hypothesis, as men significantly donated money or other items more often while
walking in the presence of a woman, as compared to any other condition. We propose that men
are using this display of generosity and wealth to signal positive attributes to potential mates.
This finding offers a new avenue in which to test theories regarding mate preferences in a
natural setting.
Keywords: Mate preferences, Resources, Ethology, Mate quality, Observation.
__________________________________________________________
Webb, A. & Fisher, M.L.: Distribution of Resources
Human Ethology Bulletin 33(2018)4: 28-36
INTRODUCTION
Sex differences in theories surrounding mate preferences indicate that women generally
prefer men with resources. One explanation for this preference stems from parental
investment theory. The evolution of anisogamy (i.e., sexual reproduction with unequal
size of gametes) leads to the possibility that women are the more investing sex because of
disproportionate costs related to their gametes, gestation, and postpartum childcare
(Trivers, 1972; but see also Fisher, Garcia, & Burch, in press, for a review of criticisms).
While men’s reproductive success is thought to be largely determined by their number of
copulations, women’s reproductive success relies on their investments of time and energy
during conception, gestation, and post-partum childcare (Campbell, 1999; Trivers,
1972). Women’s substantial parental investment causes them to have a deficit in securing
adequate resources for themselves and/or their children, leading them to theoretically
rely on men’s resources and efforts to aid with children. Past research indicates women
are typically much choosier than men when selecting a mate (e.g., Walters & Crawford,
1994), and overall, express a preference for men who can provide care, have the ability
and willingness to invest resources, and contribute support for both them and their
children (e.g., Buss 1989; Lu, Zhu, & Chang, 2015).
Sexual selection theory (Darwin, 1871) leads to the premise that to experience
reproductive success, individuals need to out perform potential rivals for mates while
also appearing the most appealing to members of the opposite sex. Therefore,
individuals may endeavor to appear the best, compared to others of the same sex, in the
hopes that they are selected for mating. The traits that lead to this evaluation by potential
mates are the same as those involved in mating competition (Andersson, 1994), which
leads to difficulties in trying to tease apart whether an individual is displaying a preferred
mating-relevant characteristic to court a potential mate or to win against rivals, or both.
Recent developments indicate that for men, intrasexual competition more than women’s
mate preferences seem to have a larger role in shaping physical dominance (Kordsmeyer,
Hunt, Puts, Ostner, & Penke, 2018). Either way, these individuals who are high on these
preferred traits have evolved a reproductive advantage (Buss & Schmitt, 1993).
Men significantly vary in the specific qualities that women find appealing,
particularly when being considered as a prospective long-term mate (Buss & Schmitt, in
press). In a long-term mating situation, men are more likely to provide food, find or
defend territories, feed and protect children, and perhaps provide opportunities for
status transfer, power, or other resources (Buss, 1989; Buss & Schmitt, 1993). Women
consider a number of observable cues to judge whether a man is a desirable long-term
mate (Buss & Schmitt, 1993). One of the most important signals of his mate quality is
his ability to distribute resources, or whether he possesses traits that indicate future
accrual of resources, such as ambition, industriousness, and being a hard worker (e.g.,
Buss, 1989).
Ultimately, women generally benefit if they are able to identify potential mates who
are both willing and able to invest resources to them and their children, given the
potential deficits they will face in accruing independent resources. It is highly important
for women to observe such cues as ambition, industry, income, status, and generosity, as
these characteristics are correlated with a man’s ability and willingness to invest (Buss &
Schmitt, 1993). Thus, the current study is an examination of whether men display
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generosity and wealth via sharing their resources while in the presence of women, if
given the opportunity.
We observed men’s interactions with individuals asking for money (hereon called
panhandlers). Panhandlers are people who publicly request money, food, or other
donations from people they do not know (Lee & Farrell, 2003), and most are not
homeless (Dordick et al., 2017). They exist universally, and have likely existed across all
of time (Verma, Bharti, & Singh, 2018). Across a range of locations (e.g., Brussels,
Toronto, Moscow, Shanghai, and London), panhandlers typically earn an average hourly
income comparable to minimum wage in that location (see Dordick et al., 2017, for a
review). Often, they request money or other items with little or nothing to give the
donor in return. Panhandlers typically situate themselves in locations of high public
traffic where money may be readily at hand, meaning that while most poor individuals
try to hide their poverty, panhandlers must flaunt it to be successful (Dordick et al.,
2017). Indeed, in locations such as downtown Manhattan, over 10,000 people are
thought to see a panhandler in one afternoon (Dordick et al., 2017).
The majority of panhandlers are men who have been forced into asking for money
because of one or more negative life events (e.g., illness, accident) (Lee & Farrell, 2003).
The majority of panhandlers are substance abusers and due to this, often also have
criminal records (Lee & Farrell, 2003). There is a stereotype that they may also be at
higher rates for violence or mental illness, although research does not support this belief
(Lee & Farrell, 2003; Tsai, Lee, Byrne, Pietrzak & Southwick, 2017). Compared to 1990,
recent national surveys about attitudes toward homeless individuals (including
panhandlers) shows that Americans endorse more support for this group and an increase
in compassion (Tsai, Lee, Byrne, Pietrzak & Southwick, 2017). At the same time, there
have been government movements to prohibit panhandling, which is counterproductive
to alleviating homelessness, possibly because citizens experience a sense of disgust when
they are in close proximity to those asking for money (Clifford, & Piston, 2017).
Pandey et al. (2006) reported that panhandlers experience stigma and feel
marginalized, dehumanized, discriminated against, and alienated, leading them to have
negative views of their personal well‐being. However, in some instances panhandlers
appeared to enjoy the stigma because it directly led to increased donations of items. Due
to the stereotypes about panhandlers, there exists a wide range of emotions and attitudes
towards them as a group, including pity, fear, and anger (Lee & Farrell, 2003).
For the purpose of the current study, panhandlers provide the opportunity for men
to demonstrate their ability to distribute resources in front of potential mates. This
display would show generosity and kindness (both considered preferred traits; Buss,
1989), but also that he possesses sufficient resources that he may give them away freely.
Thus, we hypothesized that due to this behavior being relevant as a mating signal, men
would be most likely to give panhandlers money or other items when in the presence of a
woman, as compared to when they were with another man or alone. By extension, we
also hypothesized that men who were walking alone would provide money and other
items to panhandlers at the same rate as women walking alone. Similar findings were
obtained by Iredale, Van Vugt, and Dunbar (2008); in an experimental game situation,
men were more likely to donate a higher portion of earned money to charity when
observed by women than by men, or with no observer.
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METHODS
Context
The studied individuals (hereby called “participants” although they were blind to their
inclusion in the study) were observed in one of four conditions: (1) women walking
alone past a panhandler, (2) men walking alone past a panhandler, (3) a man walking
with another man past a panhandler, and (4) a man walking with a woman past a
panhandler. Each individual was asked for change by an actual panhandler for that
environment; they were not a confederate for the study. The consequences of their
request were recorded by an observer discretely watching from a short distance away
(e.g., inside a coffee shop or similar location). All observations were made as participants
travelled along a sidewalk toward the panhandler, and neither the participants nor the
panhandler were aware that they were being monitored. Observation ended once the
participant walked past the panhandler.
Observations took place in several downtown locations of Halifax, Canada where
panhandlers select areas of high pedestrian traffic. It was not possible to determine the
nature of the items given to the panhandler without interfering with the interaction.
Consequently, we established a simple criterion that a successful attempt at panhandling
consisted of any item given by the pedestrian and placed into the hand or cup of the
panhandler. We did observe that the majority of items consisted of coins (note that
Canada has a 5, 10, 25 cent coin, as well as a 1 and 2 dollar coin).
Panhandlers were chosen based on the ability of the observer to remain hidden and
undetected in a location of close proximity. Four separate panhandlers were watched in
their interactions with pedestrians. All panhandlers were men, Caucasian, approximately
40-70 years old, were wearing clothes (i.e., large jackets and jeans) that appeared ripped
and dirty, and were without a pet or sign asking for money. All panhandlers requested
money verbally to pedestrians while remaining in a seated position.
Observations occurred over four days, for approximately three hours each day in
total. Each day consisted of a different panhandler in a different location. All data
collection occurred between January and March in the middle of a week day while there
was no precipitation.
Participants
A total of 200 individuals were observed. We observed across the locations until we
obtained a sample of 50 individuals in each of the four conditions. There were no
exclusion criteria, as so long as the participants were of adult age (i.e., looked over the age
of 20) and satisfied the criteria of the condition. Ethnicity varied, although we did notice
that the majority of participants were either of Caucasian or Asian young adults.
We elected to systematically observe every second individual matching the condition
criteria in order to allow the observer sufficient time after the event to complete the
observation and record the result. Pedestrians were excluded if they were walking with
more than one other adult for the dyad conditions, and excluded across all conditions if
they were walking with an animal or child. Pedestrians were also excluded if they had to
pass by another individual within a 5 meter radius around the panhandler (which we had
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marked inconspicuously while the panhandler was absent), as the presence of anyone
other than those involved in the interaction could serve as a potential confounding
variable.
Given the possibility of disgust in relation to panhandling, for the sake of interest we
also recorded whether the pedestrian made physical contact with the panhandler (which
we predicted would be a rare occurrence). We also recorded whether the pedestrian
started use of an electronic device (e.g., a cellular telephone) while approaching the
panhandler, presumably as a way to distract themselves from the interaction. We further
observed whether they made direct eye contact or not with the panhandler. Other
variables such as whether they stood in front of the panhandler or turned around while
in close proximity (e.g., to change direction and avoid the interaction) was also recorded.
Changes in gait speed were documented, given that we expected some individuals to
speed up to avoid the interaction. We note that these changes had to be very clear in
order to be observed reliably.
RESULTS
There are four independent conditions (i.e., male alone, female alone, male dyad, and
female/male dyad) with a binary (yes/no) dependent variable, leading to a 4 X 2
contingency table. Due to the small number of cases (under 5) in all but the female/male
dyad who did give an item to the panhandler, we decided to employ Fisher’s exact test
with the Monte Carlo approximation to determine significance. The comparison was
significant, Fisher’s exact test = 9.947, p = .015 (99% CI = .012 to .018; two-tailed, α = .
05). Some readers may be interested in the Pearson Chi-square value (despite the
minimum cell counts) with the Monte Carlo approximation; χ2(3) = 12.271, p = .006
(99% CI = .004 to .008). Table 1 provides the descriptive results.
Table 1: Percentage of Pedestrians Giving Item(s) to Panhandlers in Presence or
Absence of Others
Condition Percentage (%) Gave Item(s) to Panhandler
Female only Current study
Male only Tovée et al., 1997
Male dyad Tovée et al., 1997
Female/male dyad Voracek & Fisher, 2006
Note. Total sample size was 200, 50 per condition.
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Only 2 of the 200 participants touched the panhandler, both of them men such that
one was walking alone, and the other in the male dyad condition. A total of 14.5% of
pedestrians turned toward an electronic device when approaching the panhandler, 5.5%
stood in front of the panhandler (distributed across the conditions), and 1% (one in the
female only and one in the male only condition) turned around when approaching the
panhandler. Eye contact was made by 27.5% of the pedestrians; although the frequency
varied by condition (24% female only, 36% male only, 8% male dyad, 34% female/male
dyad) it was not significant, Fisher’s exact test = 6.582, p = .09 (note that the cell sizes did
not warrant the Monte Carlo approximation). Pedestrian’s gait speed increased for 39.5%
of the sample, while it slowed for 38.5%; this change was distributed across the
conditions and not significant (speed increase, Fisher’s exact test = 6.686, p = .348; speed
decrease Fisher’s exact test = 4.999, p = .541; approximation again not necessary).
DISCUSSION
Past observational research indicates that men alter their behavior in the presence of
women (e.g., Wilson & Daly, 2004). The aim of the current study was to investigate
men’s displays of resources in the presence versus absence of women, using the
framework of evolved mate preferences. We hypothesized that men would donate money
or other items most often in the presence of women, compared to while walking alone or
in the presence of other men. Our hypothesis was supported. We argued that men
engage in this behavior as a signal to potential mates about their personality
characteristics of kindness and generosity, as well as their current level of resources or
wealth. There exists a large corpus of research that shows women generally favor men
with these traits, at least in terms of self-report data (e.g., Buss, 1989; Buss & Schmitt, in
press; Hunter, Hill, Reid, Bourgeois, & Fisher, in review).
It is key to note that simply the presence of another individual does not lead to the
same outcome. Men walking with another man gave significantly fewer items to
panhandlers than when walking with a woman, and hence, we conclude that it is not
merely the presence of another person that prompts this behavior. While walking with
another male, men do not need to demonstrate generosity or their ability to allocate
resources, which supports our conjecture that this behavior is a display to gain favor with
potential mates. The behavior is also not specific to men, as we found men gave items to
panhandlers as often as women when walking alone, and that it remained significantly
less frequent than the behavior of men in the mixed sex dyads.
Our findings align with those of Iredale, Van Vugt, and Dunbar (2008). In an
experimental game situation, men were more likely to donate a larger portion of their
earned winnings to charity when observed by women, than when observed by men or
when not observed. The researchers attributed this finding to costly signaling, such that
generosity may indicate traits such as kindness and helpfulness. More recently, Van Vugt
and Iredale (2013) replicated this effect, finding groups of men donated more in public
good games when there was a female audience, and that men’s donations positively
increased according to their rating of the women’s attractiveness.
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We note that our observations occurred during the winter months in Canada, but
effort was taken to ensure that the weather conditions as well as other contextual issues
(e.g., time of day, day of the week, temperature) were as close to possible as identical
across the days in which we collected our data. It may be informative to replicate this
study when the weather is warmer, given that pedestrians may behave more leisurely and
be more interactive due to the higher temperature. Ambient temperature is key, as Vanky
and colleagues (2017) findings do not support the potential of a merely seasonality
effect. They gathered GPS data from a mobile telephone tracking application for almost
250 000 trips over 50 weeks by 13688 individuals living in Boston or San Francisco.
They report that regardless of seasonality, ambient air temperature and cloud cover
predict trip frequency, particularly for weekend (and they argue presumably
discretionary) travel. However, weather had minimal impact on the duration of trips,
once a trip was initiated.
One limitation concerns the assumption of pedestrian’s sexual orientation. The
design of this research dictated that we assumed all female/male dyads involved
heterosexual individuals, and that the male/male dyads did not involve displays of
mating-relevant signals. These assumptions, of course, are likely not accurate. Further
research is needed to examine how sexual orientation plays a role in the same sorts of
behaviours observed in this study. Moreover, we do not know the relationship of those
involved in the dyads; it could be that the female/male dyads were romantic partners or
siblings, for example, which likely influences the results and their implications.
Another limitation is that we did not include data from female/female dyads. This
exclusion was due to the focus of the current work on male displays. However, for
completeness, it would be potentially informative to include female/female dyads. We
also could have considered sex of the panhandlers more fully, although observation
suggests that in Halifax, the location of the study, the overwhelming majority of
panhandlers are men. Goldberg (1995) performed a similar study to the current research
and documented that men, when alone, were more likely to donate items to female than
male panhandlers. They also report that men, when accompanied by similarly aged
women, seemed to avoid giving items to female panhandlers and did not give
disproportionately more to male panhandlers, which the author interpreted as men
avoiding “showing off.” Different results were found decades earlier by Latane (1970)
who recorded men were more likely to provide assistance (i.e., tell the time, provide
directions, or give money) than women, and women were more likely to receive help
than men.
The findings of the current study indicate that naturalistic observation of real-world
events may be useful for understanding mate preferences that are typically documented
via self-report surveys. We showed that men are most likely to signal their resources as
well as generosity and kindness in the presence of women, which suggests that they may
have an awareness of female mate preferences and perform these actions in order to be
viewed in a positive manner.
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Human Ethology Bulletin 33(2018)4: 28-36



References, full paper, etc., in the link above.

Just how miserable is work? It seems that not so much... We feel about the same at work than at non-work.

Just how miserable is work? A meta-analysis comparing work and non-work affect. Martin J. Biskup, Seth Kaplan, Jill C. Bradley-Geist, Ashley A. Membere. PLOS One, March 5, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212594

Abstract: Although we spend much of our waking hours working, the emotional experience of work, versus non-work, remains unclear. While the large literature on work stress suggests that work generally is aversive, some seminal theory and findings portray working as salubrious and perhaps as an escape from home life. Here, we examine the subjective experience of work (versus non-work) by conducting a quantitative review of 59 primary studies that assessed affect on working days. Meta-analyses of within-day studies indicated that there was no difference in positive affect (PA) between work versus non-work domains. Negative affect (NA) was higher for work than non-work, although the magnitude of difference was small (i.e., .22 SD, an effect size comparable to that of the difference in NA between different leisure activities like watching TV versus playing board games). Moderator analyses revealed that PA was relatively higher at work and NA relatively lower when affect was measured using “real-time” measurement (e.g., Experience Sampling Methodology) versus measured using the Day Reconstruction Method (i.e., real-time reports reveal a more favorable view of work as compared to recall/DRM reports). Additional findings from moderator analyses included significant differences in main effect sizes as a function of the specific affect, and, for PA, as a function of the age of the sample and the time of day when the non-work measurements were taken. Results for the other possible moderators including job complexity and affect intensity were not statistically significant.

The drop in homicide represents a public health breakthrough for African American males, almost a year of increase in life expectancy at birth

The Impact of the Homicide Decline on Life Expectancy of African American Males. Patrick Sharkey, Michael Friedson. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-019-00768-4

Abstract: Homicide is a leading cause of death for young people in the United States aged 15–34, but it has a disproportionate impact on one subset of the population: African American males. The national decline in homicide mortality that occurred from 1991 to 2014 thus provides an opportunity to generate evidence on a unique question—How do population health and health inequality change when the prevalence of one of the leading causes of death is cut in half? In this article, we estimate the impact of the decline in homicide mortality on life expectancy at birth as well as years of potential life lost for African American and white males and females, respectively. Estimates are generated using national mortality data by age, gender, race, and education level. Counterfactual estimates are constructed under the assumption of no change in mortality due to homicide from 1991 (the year when the national homicide rate reached its latest peak) to 2014 (the year when the homicide rate reached its trough). We estimate that the decline in homicides led to a 0.80-year increase in life expectancy at birth for African American males, and reduced years of potential life lost by 1,156 years for every 100,000 African American males. Results suggest that the drop in homicide represents a public health breakthrough for African American males, accounting for 17 % of the reduction in the life expectancy gap between white and African American males.

Are Cheaters Sexual Hypocrites? Sexual Hypocrisy, the Self-Serving Bias, and Personality Style

Are Cheaters Sexual Hypocrites? Sexual Hypocrisy, the Self-Serving Bias, and Personality Style. Benjamin Warach, Lawrence Josephs, Bernard S. Gorman. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, March 5, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167219833392

Abstract: This article examines moral hypocrisy and the self-serving bias (SSB) in the sexual infidelity context. We found evidence of self-serving attributions that occur between primary relationship partners following sexual betrayals. Specifically, we found that sexual infidelity perpetrators (a) blamed their primary dyadic partners (i.e., victims) for infidelities significantly more than those victims blamed themselves for such infidelities, (b) blamed the surrounding circumstances for infidelities significantly more than their victims did, and (c) rated the emotional impact of infidelities on their victims as significantly less than victims’ ratings of such impact. Moreover, we found that participants with prior experience as both sexual infidelity perpetrators and victims displayed “sexual hypocrisy” by judging others more harshly than themselves for sexually unfaithful behavior. Our findings demonstrate that personality variables associated with sexual infidelity (narcissism, sexual narcissism, avoidant attachment, and primary psychopathy) are also relevant to self-serving attributions in the sexual infidelity context.

Keywords: sexual infidelity, self-serving bias, moral hypocrisy, sexual hypocrisy

“I Would Never Fall for That”: The Use of an Illegitimate Authority ... Marked discrepancy between how students predicted they would respond and how they actually did; the mean obedience rate was 95.7%

“I Would Never Fall for That”: The Use of an Illegitimate Authority to Teach Social Psychological Principles. Sally D. Farley, Deborah H. Carson, Terrence J. Pope. Teaching of Psychology, Mar 5 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/0098628319834200

Abstract: This activity explores attitudinal beliefs and behavioral responses of obedience to an illegitimate authority figure in an ambiguous situation. In Experiment 1, students either self-reported the likelihood that they would obey a request made by a stranger to surrender their cell phone or were asked directly and in person by a confederate to relinquish their cell phone. The exercise revealed a marked discrepancy between how students predicted they would respond and how they actually did respond to the request. In Experiment 2, student learning was measured in addition to obedience. Although students exposed to the exercise had similar gains in learning as those exposed to a control condition, the mean obedience rate was a compelling 95.7%. Furthermore, students self-reported a greater willingness to obey the commands of an authority figure after learning about the Milgram study than before, thereby acknowledging their vulnerability to authority. We discuss the role of Milgram’s study in the psychology curriculum and provide recommendations for how this exercise might assist understanding of myriad social psychological principles.

Keywords: Hofling, Milgram, exercise, authority, obedience

Is Empathy the Default Response to Suffering? A Meta-analytic Evaluation of Perspective-taking’s Effect on Empathic Concern

McAuliffe, William H., Evan C. Carter, Juliana Berhane, Alexander Snihur, and Michael E. McCullough. 2019. “Is Empathy the Default Response to Suffering? A Meta-analytic Evaluation of Perspective-taking’s Effect on Empathic Concern.” PsyArXiv. March 5. doi:10.31234/osf.io/bwxm9

Abstract: We conducted a series of meta-analytic tests on experiments in which participants read perspective-taking instructions—i.e., written instructions to imagine a distressed persons’ point of view (“imagine-self” and “imagine-other” instructions), or to inhibit such actions (“remain-objective” instructions)—and later reported how much empathic concern they experienced after learning about the distressed person. If people spontaneously empathize with others, then participants who receive remain-objective instructions should report less empathic concern than do participants who do not receive instructions; if people can deliberately increase how much empathic concern they experience, then imagine-self and imagine-other instructions should increase empathic concern relative to not receiving any instructions. Random-effects models revealed that medium-sized differences between imagine and remain-objective instructions were driven by remain-objective instructions. The results were robust to most corrections for bias. Publication status, in-group status, and the medium by which participants learned about the perspective-taking target did not emerge as robust moderators.

Multiple sclerosis and sugar-sweetened beverages: "and the results do not show that soda and sugar-sweetened beverages cause more severe disability"

.

May someone explain to me this headline?:

SODA, SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGES LINKED TO MORE SEVERE SYMPTOMS FOR PEOPLE WITH MS. American Academy of Neurology, Mar 05 2019.

https://www.aan.com/PressRoom/Home/PressRelease/2701.

Inside, it says:

While these results need to be confirmed by larger studies that follow people over a long period of time, and the results do not show that soda and sugar-sweetened beverages cause more severe disability, we do know that sodas have no nutritional value and people with MS may want to consider reducing or eliminating them from their diet,” Meier-Gerdingh said.

???



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The Politics of Beauty: The Effects of Partisan Bias on Physical Attractiveness

From 2016... The Politics of Beauty: The Effects of Partisan Bias on Physical Attractiveness. Stephen P. Nicholson, Chelsea M. Coe, Jason Emory,  Anna V Song. Political Behavior 38(4), April 2016. DOI: 10.1007/s11109-016-9339-7

Abstract: Does politics cause people to be perceived as more or less attractive? As a type of social identity, party identifiers often exhibit in-group bias, positively evaluating members of their own party and, especially under conditions of competition, negatively evaluating out-party members. The current experiment tests whether political in-party and out-party status affects perceptions of the physical attractiveness of target persons. In a nationally representative internet sample of U.S. adults during the 2012 presidential election, we presented participants with photos of individuals and varied information about their presidential candidate preference. Results indicate that partisans, regardless of gender, rate target individuals as less attractive if they hold a dissimilar candidate preference. Female partisans, however, were more likely to rate target persons as more physically attractive when they held a similar candidate preference whereas no such effect was found for male partisans.

Using data covering a wide range of municipal public-sector pension plans from 1962– 2014, I establish that unfunded pension benefits grow faster under Democratic-party mayors

Political Parties Do Matter in U.S. Cities ... For Their Unfunded Pensions. Christian Dippel. NBER Working Paper No. 25601, Feb 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25601

Abstract: Using data covering a wide range of municipal public-sector pension plans from 1962– 2014, I establish that unfunded pension benefits grow faster under Democratic-party mayors. The result is borne out in a generalized difference-in-differences (DiD) specification in levels and in growth rates as well as in a regression discontinuity design (RDD) focusing on narrow mayoral races. There is some evidence that the partisan effect is concentrated in police and fire-fighter plans. Being on a council-manager system matters very little to these patterns. While Tiebout sorting has been the proposed explanation for previous findings that parties do not matter for a range of fiscal outcomes in U.S. cities, Tiebout sorting may actually accentuate fiscal profligacy in the case of unfunded pensions.

The majority of regular patrons were dissatisfied with current sound levels, with around three-quarters of participants reporting preferences below the levels typically experienced at music venues

Time to listen: Most regular patrons of music venues prefer lower volumes. Elizabeth F. Beach and Megan Gilliver. Front. Psychol., Mar 5 2019. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00607

Abstract: High sound levels are a feature of nightclubs and live music venues, and therefore pose a risk to patrons’ hearing. As a result, these venues are often a focus area for hearing health promotion, and particular emphasis is placed on motivating patrons to take steps to reduce their noise exposure. In the current study, we approached this issue from a different angle. We asked whether sound levels in music venues accurately reflect the preferences of regular patrons, and examined their attitudes and preferences towards sound levels and protective listening behaviours. The study examined results from 993 regular patrons of nightclubs and live music venues, collected as part of an Australian online hearing health survey. Participants were asked about their participation at the two target venues, experiences of hearing difficulties, and risk perceptions. They were also asked about their preferences in relation to typical venue sound levels and beliefs about other attendees’ preferences. Results showed that while participants generally rated their hearing as good, the majority had experienced hearing difficulties following sound exposure at music venues. The majority of regular patrons were dissatisfied with current sound levels, with around three-quarters of participants reporting preferences below the levels typically experienced at music venues. Participants were generally aware of the risk posed by high sound levels and those who regarded themselves to be at greater risk from attending music venues were more likely to prefer lower sound levels. These findings have important consequences for the development of hearing health initiatives within entertainment venues. Rather than motivating patrons to change their behavior, encouraging venues to meet their patrons’ needs and preferences may be a more successful strategy. Venue operators may find that this approach has a positive impact not only on the hearing health of patrons, but also on the economic health of their venue. Ultimately, reducing the hearing risk in music venues may best be achieved not by telling people what to do, but by listening to what they actually want.

Keywords: live music, Nightclubs, Sound Levels, loudness preferences, Hearing Loss, Tinnitus, Leisure noise, music venue patrons

The meta-analysis provides additional evidence that extraversion is related to belief in free will

Extraversion and compatibilist intuitions: a ten-year retrospective and meta-analyses
Adam Feltz & Edward Cokely. Philosophical Psychology, Mar 4 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2019.1572692 

ABSTRACT: The past ten years have seen multiple attempts to estimate the relation between the global personality trait extraversion and compatibilist free will judgments. Here, we contribute to that line of research by conducting a meta-analysis of 17 published and eight unpublished studies (N = 2,811) estimating that relation. Overall, the mean effect size was modest but remarkably robust across materials, locations, and labs (z = .19, 95% CI .15-.24, p < .001). No significant publication bias was detected in the studies (t (23) = 1.88, p = .07). While there was no significant heterogeneity in the studies (Q (24) = 34.42, p = .08, I2 = 26.05), a moderator analysis suggested that the effect is strongest in cases that contain highly affective actions (e.g., murder) (z = .22, 95% CI .17-.28, p < .001) and weakest in cases that contain actions with low affect (e.g., asking whether free will is compatible with determinism) (z = .09, 95% CI -.05-.23, p = .22). The meta-analysis provides additional evidence that extraversion is related to compatibilist free will judgments and helps to identify opportunities to discover boundary conditions and more proximal causal mechanisms for the relation. The results of the meta-analysis also have implications for informed decision making.

KEYWORDS: Free will, compatibilism, determinism, experimental philosophy, meta-analysis, personality

The first systematic review and meta-analysis on laughter-inducing therapies: Overall quality of evidence was low; this research field has yet to reach maturity

Laughter-inducing therapies: Systematic review and meta-analysis. C. Natalie van der Wal, Robin N.Kok. Social Science & Medicine, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.02.018

Highlights
•  The first systematic review and meta-analysis on laughter-inducing therapies.
•  Overall quality of evidence was low; this research field has yet to reach maturity.
•  Non-humorous laughter attains higher effect sizes than humorous laughter.
•  Laughter-inducing therapies may improve depression, anxiety, and perceived stress.
•  Therapies seem feasible in terminal, immobile or cognitive impaired conditions.

Abstract
Rationale: Laughter-inducing therapies are being applied more regularly in the last decade, and the number of scientific reports of their beneficial effects is growing. Laughter-inducing therapies could be cost-effective treatments for different populations as a complementary or main therapy. A systematic review and meta-analysis has not yet been performed on these therapies, but is needed to examine their potential benefits. This research aims to broadly describe the field of laughter-inducing therapies, and to estimate their effect on mental and physical health for a broad range of populations and conditions.

Method: A systematic review of the field was undertaken, followed by a meta-analysis of RCTs and quasi-experimental studies. The systematic review included intervention studies, one-session therapies, lab studies and narrative reviews to provide a broad overview of the field. The meta-analysis included RCTs or quasi-experimental studies that assessed multi-session laughter or humor therapies compared to a control group, performed on people of any age, healthy or with a mental or physical condition. English and non-English articles were searched using PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and EMBASE. Search terms included laugh(ing), laughter, humo(u)r, program, therapy, yoga, exercise, intervention, method, unconditional, spontaneous, simulated, forced. Studies were classified as using humor (‘spontaneous’ laughter) or not using humor (‘simulated’ laughter).

Results: This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that (1) ‘simulated’ (non-humorous) laughter is more effective than ‘spontaneous’ (humorous) laughter, and (2) laughter-inducing therapies can improve depression. However, overall study quality was low, with substantial risk of bias in all studies. With rising health care costs and the increasing elderly population, there is a potential for low-cost, simple interventions that can be administered by staff with minimal training. Laughter-inducing therapies show a promise as an addition to main therapies, but more methodologically rigorous research is needed to provide evidence for this promise.

Keywords: Laughter-inducing therapySpontaneous laughterSimulated laughterHumorPsychological and physical well-beingSystematic reviewMeta-analysis

Looking for Mr(s) Right: Decision bias can prevent us from finding the most attractive face

Looking for Mr(s) Right: Decision bias can prevent us from finding the most attractive face. Nicholas Furl, Bruno B. Averbeck, Ryan T.McKay. Cognitive Psychology, Volume 111, June 2019, Pages 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2019.02.002

Highlights
• Many decisions involve searching option sequences and trying to stop on best option.
• Our participants were biased to search too long for attractive faces.
• This bias differs from other kinds of searches, where participants stop too early.
• Participants are risk-prone, only considering rare, highly-attractive faces.
• Participants could use probabilistic reasoning, as described by Bayesian models.

Abstract: In realistic and challenging decision contexts, people may show biases that prevent them from choosing their favored options. For example, astronomer Johannes Kepler famously interviewed several candidate fiancées sequentially, but was rejected when attempting to return to a previous candidate. Similarly, we examined human performance on searches for attractive faces through fixed-length sequences by adapting optimal stopping computational theory developed from behavioral ecology and economics. Although economics studies have repeatedly found that participants sample too few options before choosing the best-ranked number from a series, we instead found overlong searches with many sequences ending without choice. Participants employed irrationally high choice thresholds, compared to the more lax, realistic standards of a Bayesian ideal observer, which achieved better-ranked faces. We consider several computational accounts and find that participants most resemble a Bayesian model that decides based on altered attractiveness values. These values may produce starkly different biases in the facial attractiveness domain than in other decision domains.

Keywords: Decision makingBayesian modelingFacial attractivenessMate choiceOptimal stopping

Robots enchanting humans, particularly the phenomenon of robots being perceived by humans as “magical” enough to develop intimate relationships with them (caring robots, sex robots)

Robots Enchanting Humans. Maciej Musiał. Chapter in Enchanting Robots: Intimacy, Magic, and Technology, pp 11-62. March 01 2019. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-12579-0_2

Abstract: The chapter discusses the issue of robots enchanting humans, particularly the phenomenon of robots being perceived by humans as “magical” enough to develop intimate relationships with them. To examine this problem, this chapter explores the current debates in the field of robot ethics that address sex robots and care robots. It investigates both the arguments of those who are enthusiastic about such robots as well as the positions of skeptics, who consider intimate relationships with robots to be a serious danger. Finally, in reference to sociological studies about transformations of intimacy it is argued that robots enchant humans and are perceived as potential intimate partners because humans are becoming progressively disenchanted in the sense that they are increasingly considered to be non-unique and problematic, while robots are seen as possessing all positive characteristics of humans without any flaws typical of humans.

Keywords: Intimacy Intimate relationships Sex robots Care robots Objectification

The same bias that causes someone to take an exploitative loan may also imply that the loan benefits them by causing them to purchase a product or service that they should, but wouldn’t otherwise, buy

Hayashi, Andrew T., Consumer Law Myopia (February 14, 2019). Virginia Law and Economics Research Paper No. 2019-03. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3334677

Abstract: People make mistakes with debt, partly because the chance to buy now and pay later tempts them to do things that are not in their long-term interest. Lenders sell credit products that exploit this vulnerability. In this Article, I argue that critiques of these products, particularly those that draw insights from behavioral law and economics, have a blind spot: they ignore what the borrowed funds are used for. By evaluating financing transactions in isolation from the underlying purchase, the cost-benefit analysis of consumer financial regulation is truncated and misleading. I show that the same bias that causes someone to take an exploitative loan may also imply that the loan benefits them by causing them to purchase a product or service that they should, but wouldn’t otherwise, buy. I demonstrate the importance of this effect in a study of tax refund anticipation loans. I find that regulation curtailing these loans reduced the use of paid tax preparers and the takeup of the earned income tax credit, which is the second largest federal transfer to low-income households.

Keywords: behavioral law and economics, consumer law

Consumers with food deprivation display lower preference for sustainable food items; hunger operates outside rational awareness and alters gentleness-associations with sustainable products

Hungry bellies have no ears. How and why hunger inhibits sustainable consumption. Stefan Hoffmann et al. Ecological Economics, Volume 160, June 2019, Pages 96-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.02.007

Highlights
•    Consumers with food deprivation display lower preference for sustainable food items.
•    Implicit Association Test shows that hunger operates outside rational awareness.
•    Hunger alters gentleness-associations with sustainable products.
•    Explicitly held judgments are not affected by food deprivation.

Abstract: While reports state that consumers are increasingly willing to consume more sustainably, no study has considered how the activation of very basic human needs, such as the state of hunger, affects sustainable food consumption. The authors expect that hungry consumers display a lower preference for sustainable food items and that this hunger-induced imprint on food consumption patterns must be traced back to the fact that the activation of very fundamental human needs contaminates stereotypical perceptions of sustainable products. More importantly, hunger primarily operates spontaneously, as well as automatically, and affects perceptions, which are difficult to control (and which sometimes go unnoticed). A laboratory experiment studied this premise by sampling 166 participants with 18 h of actual food deprivation, half of them having breakfast before and the other half after completing the experimental tasks. The participants who had breakfast show a stronger tendency to choose sustainable products, which can be traced back to implicit gentleness-associations concerning sustainable products in the Implicit Association Test (IAT). Albeit explicitly held beliefs also influence choices, these judgments are not affected by food deprivation. A field study then replicates the findings in a real-life setting.

Why Women Leave Their Husbands for Other Women

Why Women Leave Their Husbands for Other Women. Lauren Vinopal. Fatherly, Mar 04 2019. https://www.fatherly.com/health-science/women-bisexual-divorce/

Women are more likely to leave their husbands for other women because their sexual fluidity comes with fewer consequences.

Women are more likely than men to cheat on their spouses with a same-sex partner, studies suggest. It’s not that women are more likely to be homosexual or bisexual—it’s that women appear more willing than men to change their minds about what turns them on, throughout their lives. Men tend to choose a sexuality and stick with it, experts agree. Women are sexual wildcards.

“I think data are sufficient to suggest that more women are likely to change their reported sexual orientation depending on their circumstance, where men are more resistant to changing their identity from sexual behavior alone,” psychophysiologist and neuroscientist Nicole Prause, who studies women’s sexual responses, told Fatherly.

The phrase “sexual fluidity” was originally coined by psychologist Lisa Diamond in 2008. After following the same 100 women for a decade, she found that there were crucial differences between bisexuality and the sexual fluidity that otherwise heterosexual women experienced. Bisexuality is defined as being attracted to men and women. Many women, Diamond found, identified as gay or straight, but accepted the fact that they might change their minds at some point. When experts say that women are more likely to be sexually fluid, they mean that they’re more likely to make an exception to, or even update, their sexual identities.

Of course, this does not mean that women are more likely than men to cheat on their spouses and sexual fluidity is seldom the main cause of a relationship souring. As with any relationship problem, there are usually other, deeper relationship issues at play. But now, more than ever, married women are stepping away from problem heterosexual marriages, and into same-sex ones.

[...]

One hormonal explanation may be that women’s testosterone levels increase with age, and higher testosterone levels have also been linked with increased incidence of homosexuality and bisexuality in women. This might help explain why women may be more fluid in their thirties and forties, after having kids. Evolutionary psychologists have offered a number of theories as to why women may be more fluid as well, such as an adaptive way to decrease conflict in polygamous cultures. Another popular explanation is that, because saying yes to sex comes at a higher risk and reproductive cost to women, they tend to make sexual decisions more cautiously on a case by case basis, which could potentially allow for more deviation.

Still, it is likely that increased rates of sexual fluidity among women is primarily a social (rather than biological) phenomenon. Indeed, there is emerging evidence that men have the same potential as women to be sexually fluid, but that stigma prevents them from acting upon it. In most western societies, women still face fewer social costs for same-sex relationships than men. [...]

Psychological sex differences in humans are real, they can be large and even very large, and evidence suggests evolutionary origins for a broad range of sex differences

Archer, John  (2019) The reality and evolutionary significance of human psychological sex differences. Biological Reviews, https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.

Abstract: The aims of this article are: (1) to provide a quantitative overview of sex differences in human psychological attributes, and (2) to consider evidence for their possible evolutionary origins. Sex differences were identified from a systematic literature search of meta-analyses and large-sample studies. These were organized in terms of evolutionary significance as follows: (1) characteristics arising from inter-male competition (within-sex aggression; impulsiveness and sensation-seeking; fearfulness; visuospatial and object-location memory; object-centred orientations); (2) those concerning social relations that are likely to have arisen from women’s adaptations for small-group interactions and men’s for larger co-operative groups (person-centred orientation and social skills; language; depression and anxiety); (3) those arising from female choice (sexuality; mate choice; sexual conflict). There were sex differences in all categories, whose magnitudes ranged from (1) small (object location memory; negative emotions), to (2) medium (mental rotation; anxiety disorders; impulsivity; sex drive; interest in casual sex), to (3) large (social interests and abilities; sociosexuality), and (4) very large (escalated aggression; systemizing; sexual violence). Evolutionary explanations were evaluated according to whether: (1) similar differences occur in other mammals; (2) there is cross-cultural consistency; (3) the origin was early in life or at puberty; (4) there was evidence for hormonal influences; and (5), where possible, whether there was evidence for evolutionarily derived design features. The evidence was positive for most features in most categories, suggesting evolutionary origins for a broad range of sex differences. Attributes for which there was no sex difference are also noted. Within-sex variations are discussed as limitations to the emphasis on sex differences.

If emerging technologies are so impressive, why are interest rates so low, wage growth so slow, investment rates so flat, & total factor productivity growth so lukewarm? Lack of genius.

Digital Abundance and Scarce Genius: Implications for Wages, Interest Rates, and Growth. Seth G. Benzell, Erik Brynjolfsson. NBER Working Paper No. 25585, February 2019, https://www.nber.org/papers/w25585

Digital versions of labor and capital can be reproduced much more cheaply than their traditional forms. This increases the supply and reduces the marginal cost of both labor and capital. What then, if anything, is becoming scarcer? We posit a third factor, ‘genius’, that cannot be duplicated by digital technologies. Our approach resolves several macroeconomic puzzles. Over the last several decades, both real median wages and the real interest rate have been stagnant or falling in the United States and the World. Furthermore, shares of income paid to labor and capital (properly measured) have also decreased. And despite dramatic advances in digital technologies, the growth rate of measured output has not increased. No competitive neoclassical two-factor model can reconcile these trends. We show that when increasingly digitized capital and labor are sufficiently complementary to inelastically supplied genius, innovation augmenting either of the first two factors can decrease wages and interest rates in the short and long run. Growth is increasingly constrained by the scarce input, not labor or capital. We discuss microfoundations for genius, with a focus on the increasing importance of superstar labor. We also consider consequences for government policy and scale sustainability.

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Why then, if emerging technologies are so impressive, are interest rates so low, wage growth so slow and investment rates so flat? And why is total factor productivity growth so lukewarm? To resolve this paradox, we propose a model of aggregate production with three inputs. The third factor corresponds to a bottleneck which prevents firms from making full use of digital abundance. Bottlenecks are ubiquitous in economics. This paper is typed on a computer that is over 1000 times faster than those of the past, but our typing is still limited by our interface with the keyboard.
An assembly line that doubles the output, speed or precision of 1, 2 or 99 out of 100 of processes will still be limited by that line’s weakest link. In other words, no matter how much we increase the other inputs, if an inelastically supplied complement remains scarce, it will be the gating factor for growth.

Our model can explain why ordinary labor and ordinary capital haven’t captured the gains from digitization, while a few superstars have earned immense fortunes. Their contributions, whether due to genius or luck, are both indispensable and impossible to digitize. This puts them in a position to capture the gains from digitization.

In our digital economy technology advances rapidly, but humans and their institutions change slowly. Institutional, managerial, technological, and political constraints become bottlenecks (Brynjolfsson et al., 2017). Before a firm can make use of AI decision making, its leaders need to make costly and time-consuming investments in quantifying its business processes; before it can scale rapidly using web services it needs figure out how to codify its systems in software. Therefore, digital advances benefit neither unexceptional labor nor standard capital, at least insofar as they can be replicated digitally (Brynjolfsson et al., 2014). The invisible hand instead favors those who are a scarce complement to these factors.

The inputs in our model are traditional capital and labor and a relatively inelastic complement we dub ‘genius’ or G. When G is relatively abundant, the economy approximates a two-factor one. But as G becomes relatively scarce, it becomes a bottleneck for output and captures an increasing share of national income. We show that when traditional inputs are sufficiently complementary to G, innovations in automation technology can reduce both labor’s share of income and the interest rate.

This theory fits what we know about the limitations of digital technologies, including cutting-edge AI. While general artificial intelligence might someday lead to an economic singularity, contemporary AI technologies have clear limitations, making humans indispensable for many essential tasks. Agrawal et al. (2018a) and Agrawal et al. (2018c) observe that AI is good at prediction tasks, but struggles with judgment – often a close complement. Brynjolfsson et al. (2018) create a rubric for assessing which tasks are suitable for machine learning and use it to evaluate the content of over 18,000 tasks described in O-Net. They find that while the new technology delivers super-human performance for some tasks, it is ineffective for many others. In particular, despite their many strengths, existing computer systems weak or ineffective at tasks that involve significant creativity or large-scale problem solving. Even tasks amenable to automation may require large organizational investments before business processes can be automated.

The only essential feature of G in our model is that it is inelastically supplied, because, in part, it is not subject to digitization. For concreteness, our primary interpretation for G is superstar individuals. They may be exceptionally gifted with the ability to come up with an exciting new idea, sort through bad ideas for a diamond in the rough,3 or effectively manage a business. If these good ideas are owned by and accumulate within firms, they correspond to a kind of alienable genius.

...

Many have the sense that intangible assets and superstar workers are more abundant than ever. Perhaps the most surprising thing then about our result is that these factors are increasingly scarce. We contend that this is due to confusion between the value and importance of these inputs, which are increasing, and their relative abundance, which is decreasing.

Laterality, or left–right discrimination (LRD) is assumed to be innate or acquired early, but in one study, a majority of students scored less than 77% on an objective LRD test

Challenging  assumptions of  innateness –leave nothing unturned . Jason J Han & Neha Vapiwala. Medical Education, Mar 3 2019, https://doi.org/10.1111/medu.13824

It was once common in various academic fields to assume that individuals possess certain fundamental abilities or intuitions (e.g. the assumption of rationality in the fields of economics and social sciences).1 However, the past half-century has overseen a transition towards a different model of human cognition, one which acknowledges the human brain as complex machinery that is vulnerable to systematic errors.

The pioneers of this paradigm shift, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, attributed this to the co-existence of two processing mechanisms.2 They described the first, aptly named System 1, as the fast, automatic, intuitive, unconscious approach and the second (System 2) as the slower, more deliberate, analytical and conscious mode. The purpose of this categorisation was not to assign a hierarchy, but rather to acknowledge that both systems have their respective pros and cons depending on the task. System 1 is efficient but more error-prone. System 2 is more thorough but requires greater resources and quickly drains our working memory and attention, thereby making it too susceptible to error. In this issue of Medical Education, Gormley et al. juxtapose these two systems in the context of one of the most commonly performed mental tasks –our ability to discern laterality or left–right discrimination (LRD). This ability is particularly critical in medicine, as errors in LRD can lead to wrong diagnoses and interventions, and ultimately patient harm. The authors note that although LRD is often assumed to be innate or acquired during early stages of human development, in reality LRD is a complex neuropsychological process with which 17% of women and 9% of men have reported difficulty.3 Medical students are not exempt from this challenge. In one study, a majority of students scored  less than 77% on an objective LRD test.4 In the interviews conducted by Gormley et al., students who had difficulty with LRD disclosed feelings of inadequacy, which led to greater efforts to conceal this difficulty and even influenced their career trajectories by steering them away from certain specialties. Undoubtedly, these f indings have important implications for the medical education community, suggesting the need to overthrow assumptions that LRD is an  innate human skill and to raise the importance of laterality training in the curriculum.5

This study inspires the realisation that no tacit assumption of innateness or intuitiveness should go unchecked. What else are we assuming is easy, innate or intuitive? The distinction between what is presumably innate and what merits attention and practice is somewhat arbitrary. Observing that we teach correct anatomic spatial orientation, such as anterior from posterior, superior from inferior, Gormley et al. asked, why not also left from right? Extrapolating further, we could apply the same line of questioning to other competencies in medical education, such as our ability to recognise personal cognitive biases or develop ‘soft’ skills such as empathy and clarity of communication. There are undoubtedly circumstances in which we assume we effectively and expertly broke bad news, disclosed error or obtained informed consent, but in the eyes of the patient our performance was lacking. As such, we can all stand to gain important insights into our own abilities with a more conscious and thoughtful approach.6,7 1

Short-run impacts of the 2018 trade war on the U.S. economy: Annual losses from higher costs, $68.8 bn (0.37% of GDP); after tariff revenue & gains to producers, welfare loss is $6.4 bn (0.03% of GDP)

The Return to Protectionism. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy, and Amit K. Khandelwal. Working Paper, Mar 2019, http://www.econ.ucla.edu/pfajgelbaum/RTP1.pdf

Abstract: We analyze the short-run impacts of the 2018 trade war on the U.S. economy. We estimate import demand and export supply elasticities using changes in U.S. and retaliatory war tariffs over time. Imports from targeted countries decline 31.5% within products, while targeted U.S. exports fall 9.5%. We find complete pass-through of U.S. tariffs to variety-level import prices, and compute the aggregate and regional impacts of the war in a general equilibrium framework that matches these elasticities. Annual losses from higher costs of imports are $68.8 billion (0.37% of GDP). After accounting for higher tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers from higher prices, the aggregate welfare loss is $6.4 billion (0.03% of GDP). U.S. tariffs favored sectors located in politically competitive counties, suggesting an ex ante rationale for the tariffs, but retaliatory tariffs offset the benefits to these counties. Tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties are the most negatively affected by the trade war.


Check also Krugman on Sep 2018: Trump’s tariffs really are a big, bad deal. Their direct economic impact ***will be modest*** (?!), although hardly trivial https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/krugman-trumps-tariffs-really-are-big.html

Orgasms with a partner were associated with the perception of favorable sleep outcomes; orgasms achieved through masturbation were associated with the perception of better sleep quality & latency

Sex and Sleep: Perceptions of Sex as a Sleep Promoting Behavior in the General Adult Population. Michele Lastella et al. Front. Public Health, March 04 2019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2019.00033

Objective: The main aim of this study was to explore the perceived relationship between sexual activities, sleep quality, and sleep latency in the general adult population and identify whether any gender differences exist.

Participants/methods: We used a cross-sectional survey to examine the perceived relationship between sexual activity and subsequent sleep in the general adult population. Seven-hundred and seventy-eight participants (442 females, 336 males; mean age 34.5 ± 11.4 years) volunteered to complete an online anonymous survey at their convenience.

Statistical Analyses: Chi square analyses were conducted to examine if there were any gender differences between sexual activities [i.e., masturbation (self-stimulation), sex with a partner without orgasm, and sex with a partner with orgasm] and self-reported sleep.

Results: There were no gender differences in sleep (quality and onset) between males and females when reporting sex with a partner [χ2(2)
= 2.20, p = 0.332; χ2(2)=5.73, p = 0.057] or masturbation (self-stimulation) [χ2(2) = 1.34, p = 0.513; χ2(2) = 0.89, p = 0.640] involved an orgasm.

Conclusions: Orgasms with a partner were associated with the perception of favorable sleep outcomes, however, orgasms achieved through masturbation (self-stimulation) were associated with the perception of better sleep quality and latency. These findings indicate that the public perceive sexual activity with orgasm precedes improved sleep outcomes. Promoting safe sexual activity before bed may offer a novel behavioral strategy for promoting sleep.

The informal economy share rises after reaching a high GDP... Norway has a bigger shadow economy than the US

Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development. Dong Frank Wu, Friedrich Schneider. IMF Working Paper No. 19/48, Mar 2019. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/03/01/Nonlinearity-Between-the-Shadow-Economy-and-Level-of-Development-46618

Summary: This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.

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The paper also seeks to identify the potential factors which boost GDP per capita. Consistent with the growth literature, we find that educational attainment plays a vital role in improving GDP per capita, especially a college degree or above. This result helps shed some light on a possible mechanism of a U-shaped pattern at the micro level. From the individual perspective, people work to make themselves better off. When the level of development is low, education helps build up labor productivity and skilled workers with college education or above choose to stay in the formal sector to enjoy benefits from high productivity position and social security net. When the economy advances to a new level at which income of skilled workers becomes high enough and one household member can easily cover the whole family’s daily expenses, demand for informal work is likely to increase due to work flexibility or other desirable perks. Hence the size of shadow economy reverses its downtrend.


Check also the paper that found that taxpayers’ attitudes toward evasion are not predictive of behavior & that tax compliance is not related to trust in government or one’s fellow citizens; Danes are more likely to evade tax than Italians; at the same time, Danes are less tolerant of tax evasion by others:

Willing to Evade: An Experimental Study of Italy and Denmark. Alice Guerra and Brooke Harrington. Copenhagen  Business  School, Department  of  Business  and  Politics. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/found-that-taxpayers-attitudes-toward.html

The organic label leads to an underestimation of caloric value and more consumption; this effect is not moderated by implicit evaluations, maybe by a semantic association between the concepts “organic” & "non-caloric”

The calories underestimation of “organic” food: Exploring the impact of implicit evaluations. Theo Besson et al. Appetite, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2019.02.019

Abstract: Specific attributes of a food product can cause it to be spontaneously but wrongly perceived as healthier than it really is (i.e., the health halo effect). Notably, there is preliminary evidence that individuals evaluate organic food as less caloric than regular, non-organic food. However, explanations regarding the cognitive mechanisms underlying the health halo effect remain scarce. Drawing from the implicit cognition literature, we hypothesize that this effect could be due to (a) the reactivation in memory of implicit positive evaluations and/or (b) the reactivation of a semantic association between the concepts “organic” and “non-caloric”. We first conducted a 2 (Product label: organic versus non-organic) × continuous (Valence-IAT score) × continuous (Calorie-IAT score) study (N = 151) to test these hypotheses, and conducted a conceptual replication in a second study (N = 269). We computed Bayesian analyses alongside frequentist analyses in order to test for potential null hypotheses, as well as frequencies and Bayesian meta-regression including both datasets. Both methods provided consistent results. First, Bayesian analyses yielded extremely strong evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the organic label leads to an underestimation of caloric value. Second, they provided strong evidence that this effect is not moderated by implicit evaluations. Hence, we replicated the organic halo effect but showed that, surprisingly, it does not arise from implicit associations. We discuss these findings and propose directions for future research regarding the mechanisms underlying calories (under)estimation.

Religions that lose strength... Tyler Cowen's comments on Jana Riess's The Next Mormons: How Millennials are Changing the LDS Church

Jana Riess, The Next Mormons: How Millennials are Changing the LDS Church. 2019. Comments by Tyler Cowen, Mar 02 2019, https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/03/the-mormon-asymptote.html:

...compared to some other religions, Mormonism is not doing too badly.  Mormonism's US growth rate of .75 percent in 2017 -- kept in positive territory by still-higher-than-average fertility among Mormons -- is actually somewhat enviable when compared to, for example, the once-thriving Southern Baptists, who have bled out more than a million members in the last ten years.  Mormonism is not yet declining in membership, but it has entered a period of decelerated growth.  In terms of congregational expansion, the LDS Church in the United States added only sixty-five new congregations in 2016, for an increase of half a percentage point.  In 2017, the church created 184 new wards and branches in the United States, but 184 units also closed, resulting in no net gain at all.

By some estimates (p.7), only about 30 percent of young single Mormons in the United States go to church regularly.  The idea of the Mormon mission, however, is rising in import:

More than half of Mormon Millennials have served a full-time mission (55 percent), which is clearly the highest proportion of any generation; among GenXers, 40 percent served, and in the Boomer/Silent generation, it was 28 percent.

In contrast, "returning to the temple on behalf of the deceased" is falling (p.54).

Mormons are about a third more likely to be married than the general U.S. population, 66 to 48 percent.  But note that 23 percent of Mormon Millennials admit to having a tattoo, against a recommended rate of zero (p.162).

And ex-Mormon snowflakes seem to be proliferating.  For GenX, the single biggest reason giving for leaving the church was "Stopped believing there was one church".  For Millennials, it is (sadly) "Felt judged or misunderstood."

Check also Crawfurd, Lee. 2019. “Does Temporary Migration from Rich to Poor Countries Cause Commitment to Development? Evidence from Quasi-random Mormon Mission Assignments.” SocArXiv. January 10. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/01/assignment-to-region-in-global-south.html

Now we know why we are smart & prone to addiction too: Ants defend plants they fed on more aggressively against herbivore competitors (termites) when the plant is doused with artificial nectaries

Nectar quality affects ant aggressiveness and biotic defense provided to plants. Fábio T. Pacelhe et al. bioTropica, Feb 27 2019, https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12625

Abstract: Ant–plant mutualisms are useful models for investigating how plant traits mediate interspecific interactions. As plant‐derived resources are essential components of ant diets, plants that offer more nutritious food to ants should be better defended in return, as a result of more aggressive behavior toward natural enemies. We tested this hypothesis in a field experiment by adding artificial nectaries to individuals of the species Vochysia elliptica (Vochysiaceae). Ants were offered one of four liquid foods of different nutritional quality: amino acids, sugar, sugar + amino acids, and water (control). We used live termites (Nasutitermes coxipoensis) as herbivore competitors and observed ant behavior toward them. In 88 hr of observations, we recorded 1,009 interactions with artificial nectaries involving 1,923 individual ants of 26 species. We recorded 381 encounters between ants and termites, of which 38% led to attack. Sixty‐one percent of these attacks led to termite exclusion from the plants. Recruitment and patrolling were highest when ants fed upon nectaries providing sugar + amino acids, the most nutritious food. This increase in recruitment and patrolling led to higher encounter rates between ants and termites, more frequent attacks, and faster and more complete termite removal. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that plant biotic defense is mediated by resource quality. We highlight the importance of qualitative differences in nectar composition for the outcome of ant–plant interactions.

Tversky & Kahneman, 1973, on systematic biases... Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability

From 1973... Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman. Cognitive Psychology, Volume 5, Issue 2, September 1973, Pages 207-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9

Abstract: This paper explores a judgmental heuristic in which a person evaluates the frequency of classes or the probability of events by availability, i.e., by the ease with which relevant instances come to mind. In general, availability is correlated with ecological frequency, but it is also affected by other factors. Consequently, the reliance on the availability heuristic leads to systematic biases. Such biases are demonstrated in the judged frequency of classes of words, of combinatorial outcomes, and of repeated events. The phenomenon of illusory correlation is explained as an availability bias. The effects of the availability of incidents and scenarios on subjective probability are discussed.

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Daniel Kahneman – Prize Lecture. NobelPrize.org. Nobel Media AB 2019. Mar 03 2019. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/kahneman/lecture

"Remarkably, the intuitive judgments of these experts did not conform to statistical principles with which they were thoroughly familiar. In particular, their intuitive statistical inferences and their estimates of statistical power showed a striking lack of sensitivity to the effects of sample size. We were impressed by the persistence of discrepancies between statistical intuition and statistical knowledge, which we observed both in ourselves and in our colleagues. We were also impressed by the fact that significant research decisions, such as the choice of sample size for an experiment, are routinely guided by the flawed intuitions of people who know better."

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Check also From William Niskanen's obituary at the Washington Post, William A. Niskanen Jr., economist and former Cato Institute chairman, dies. By T. Rees Shapiro. Washington Post, November 1, 2011. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/william-a-niskanen-jr-economist-and-cato-institute-chairman-dies/2011/10/31/gIQAuM1RaM_story.html

At Ford, Dr. Niskanen found, conformity was key. But it was a lesson Dr. Niskanen did not learn until 1980, when he was fired for breaking ranks with the executives.

During the 1970s, the nation's car industry was battered by rising gas prices. For Japanese manufacturers, touting smaller cars with fuel-sipping engines, American sales took off.

In late 1979, Ford begged for a government intervention, asking the International Trade Commission to impose quotas on Japanese cars.

[...]

Dr. Niskanen told Ford executives that the government could not cure the company's ills. Japan was not the problem, Dr. Niskanen told his bosses; they were.

[...]

Ford's real issue, Dr. Niskanen said, was bad product decisions.

Upon hearing his advice, Ford executives dismissed Dr. Niskanen.

"I was told, Bill, in general, people who do well in this company wait until they hear their superiors express their view and then contribute something in support of that view,・ Dr. Niskanen said in an 1980 interview with the Wall Street Journal. "That wasn", and isn't, my style."
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Excellence is not enough: Most UK scientists who publish extremely highly-cited papers do not secure funding from major public and charity funders

Most UK scientists who publish extremely highly-cited papers do not secure funding from major public and charity funders: A descriptive analysis. Charitini Stavropoulou, Melek Somai, John P. A. Ioannidis. PLOS, February 27, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211460

Abstract: The UK is one of the largest funders of health research in the world, but little is known about how health funding is spent. Our study explores whether major UK public and charitable health research funders support the research of UK-based scientists producing the most highly-cited research. To address this question, we searched for UK-based authors of peer-reviewed papers that were published between January 2006 and February 2018 and received over 1000 citations in Scopus. We explored whether these authors have held a grant from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the Medical Research Council (MRC) and the Wellcome Trust and compared the results with UK-based researchers who serve currently on the boards of these bodies. From the 1,370 papers relevant to medical, biomedical, life and health sciences with more than 1000 citations in the period examined, we identified 223 individuals from a UK institution at the time of publication who were either first/last or single authors. Of those, 164 are still in UK academic institutions, while 59 are not currently in UK academia (have left the country, are retired, or work in other sectors). Of the 164 individuals, only 59 (36%; 95% CI: 29–43%) currently hold an active grant from one of the three funders. Only 79 (48%; 95% CI: 41–56%) have held an active grant from any of the three funders between 2006–2017. Conversely, 457 of the 664 board members of MRC, Wellcome Trust, and NIHR (69%; 95% CI: 65–72%) have held an active grant in the same period by any of these funders. Only 7 out of 655 board members (1.1%) were first, last or single authors of an extremely highly-cited paper. There are many reasons why the majority of the most influential UK authors do not hold a grant from the country’s major public and charitable funding bodies. Nevertheless, the results are worrisome and subscribe to similar patterns shown in the US. We discuss possible implications and suggest ways forward.