I didn't expect such numbers: Found a high prevalence of rape (13.06%) in women having chronic migrane, and 30% of refractory migraine

High Prevalence of Rape and Sexual Abuse among Chronic and Refractory Migraine Patients (P3.10-010). Agustin Oterino Duran, Maria Toriello, Fernando Iglesias, Fernando Hoyuela, Sara Perez-Pereda, Vicente Gonzalez-Quintanilla, Olga Umaran, Javier-Gonzalo Ocejo. Neurology, April 09, 2019; 92 (15 Supplement) May 7, 2019. https://n.neurology.org/content/92/15_Supplement/P3.10-010

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the prevalence of early adverse experiences and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among migraine patients in an outpatient migraine-dedicated clinic.

Background: PTSD has a prevalence of 22% among migraineurs, hardly increasing the risk for higher disability. Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) have been associated with migraine and had a strong correlation with migraine severity.

Design/Methods: We prospectively analyzed the prevalence of PTSD in a hospital-based migraine-dedicated outpatient clinic. We randomly selected 64 subjects among aproximately 1000 subjects attended a year. Self-administered MIDAS, Beck Anxiety (BAI), and Depression (BDI) inventories, Fatigue Scale (FS), and Traumatic Questionaire (TQ) were obtained from all patients. Chi2, t-test, and non-parametric tests were used.

Results: After informed consent, a total of 64 patients 46 CM (10 had refractory migraine [RM[) mean of age 45.00±8.5y) and 18 frequent, episodic migraine (39.17±11.7y; p=0.036). MIDAS was higher in CM (91.65±77.0) than EM (50.7±29.9; p=0.032) and higher number of headache days (CM=61.65±23.7; EM=36.75±20.9; p=0.014). BDI, BAI, and FS showed no differences among EM, CM nor RM. TQ was positively answered in 13/18 EM, and in 31/46 CM (n.s.). A total of 5 subjects recognized having been raped (3 RM, 2 CM); 2 suffered incest. Physical abuse was recognized in 11 patients (6 CM, 3 RM, and 2 EM); 8 suffered severe aggression (6MC, 1RM, 1EM);16 recognized mobbing, bulling, or psychological misconduct (14 MC, 1 RM, 1 EM). We found no differences in SF-12 both physical (EM=36.68±9.7; CM=35.4±8.9) and mental dimensions (EM=42.36±11.3; CM=40.17±11.2). SF-12 components inversely correlated with PTSD, BDI, BAI, and FSS scores (for all p<0.01).

Conclusions: We found a high prevalence of rape (13.06%) in women having CM, and 30% of RM. PTSD was associated with more disabling migraine.

We suggest that antecedents of sexual abuse, physical abuse, and violation could be routinally addressed in chronic migraine to undergo specific psychological therapies.

Estimated and final cost subsidies in New York City's new ferry: From an initial subsidy of $6.60 per trip, the final cost is $24.75 per trip (plus $2.75 that each passenger must pay)

A Ferry Subsidy of $24.75 a Ride? New York City’s Costs Are Ballooning. Patrick McGeehan. The New York Times, Apr 17 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/17/nyregion/new-york-ferry.html

[...]

One of the new routes Mr. de Blasio announced this year — between Coney Island and Wall Street — is projected to require a subsidy from the city of $24.75 for every passenger, according to a report from the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan, nonprofit civic organization.

The commission said that the average subsidy for each passenger in the system’s first year of operation was $10.73, far more than the $6.60 subsidy the de Blasio administration originally estimated.

City officials say the subsidy will fall as the system attracts more riders. They now project that it will drop to less than $8 per passenger, after the addition in the next two years of routes to Coney Island, the North Shore of Staten Island and Ferry Point Park in the Bronx.

But that forecast hinges on an estimate that two million riders a year will opt to pay $2.75 to ride from Staten Island to the West Side of Midtown when they can get to Lower Manhattan on the city-run Staten Island Ferry for free.

[...]

Although it would cost $27.50 per person to ride the ferry from Coney Island to Wall Street, according to the Citizens Budget Commission’s report, the estimated 1,100 commuters will only pay $2.75.

[...]

Divergence of female & male genitalia can occur in early stages, not only at later stages of speciation (after the accumulation of other reproductive isolating barriers)

Correlated divergence of female and male genitalia in replicated lineages with ongoing ecological speciation. Ryan Greenway et al. Evolution, April 16 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13742

ABSTRACT: Divergence of genital traits among lineages has the potential to serve as a reproductive isolating barrier when copulation, insemination, or fertilization are inhibited by incompatibilities between female and male genitalia. Despite widespread evidence for genital trait diversity among closely related lineages and coevolution of female and male genitalia within lineages, few studies have investigated genital evolution during the early stages of speciation. We quantified genital variation in replicated population pairs of Poecilia mexicana with ongoing ecological speciation between sulfidic (H2S‐containing) and nearby non‐sulfidic habitats. These analyses revealed rapid and correlated divergence of female and male genitalia across evolutionarily independent population pairs exposed to divergent selection regimes. Both sexes exhibited convergent evolution of genital traits among populations inhabiting similar habitat types. Our results demonstrate that genital evolution can occur during the early stages of speciation‐with‐gene‐flow, potentially as a result of variation in the intensity of sexual conflict among populations. Our results suggest genitalia may contribute to early stages of divergence, and challenge the generality of previously suggested mechanisms of genital evolution in poeciliids.

Keywords: convergence, genital evolution, reproductive  isolation, Poecilia mexicana, reinforcement, sexual isolation

---
Divergence of genital traits has been hypothesized to serve as an effective reproductive isolating barrier when successful copulation, insemination, or fertilization are inhibited or prevented due to incompatibilities between the genitalia of males and females from different lineages [...]. Even though genitalia are among the most rapidly evolving morphological traits (Eberhard 1985), with concomitant implications for the evolution of reproductive isolation [...], the timing and role of mechanical isolation via genital divergence as a barrier to gene flow during speciation remains unclear (Langerhans et al. 2016; Yassin 2016). [...] Few studies have explicitly investigated patterns of genital evolution during early stages of the speciation process [...]. As a result, the question remains whether genital divergence can contribute to reproductive isolation early in the speciation process, or if genital divergence occurs only at later stages of speciation, after the accumulation of other reproductive isolating barriers (e.g., as a consequence of reinforcement upon secondary contact).

[...] Populations of P. mexicana have independently colonized toxic, hydrogen sulfide(H2S)-rich springs in multiple tributaries of the Río Grijalva in southern Mexico (Greenway et al.2014). Sulfide spring fishes are locally adapted and differ from ancestral populations in adjacent non-sulfidic habitats in physiological, morphological, behavioral, and life-history traits(Tobler et al. 2018). Trait divergence includes changes in sexual behaviors(less coercive mating attempts in sulfidic populations; Plath et al. 2003; Plath 2008)as well as aggression and boldness (both reduced in sulfidic populations; Riesch et al. 2009; Bierbach et al. 2017), which could influence genital evolution. Populationsin sulfidespringsare also genetically differentiated from neighboring populations in non-sulfidic habitats despite a lack of physical barriers(Plath et al. 2013). Reproductive isolation between populationsin different habitat typesis in part facilitated by natural selection against migrants, as reciprocal translocation experiments revealed strong selection against migrants from non-sulfidic habitats into sulfide springs, as well as varying levels of selection against sulfidic individuals moving into non-sulfidic habitats (Plath et al. 2013). Additionally, mate choice experiments have revealed significant association preferences for individuals of the same ecotype in non-sulfidic females from populations adjacent to sulfide springs (Plath et al. 2013), which arelinked to adaptive differences in body shape that serve as cues (Greenway et al. 2016). Importantly, neither sulfidic females nor femalesfrom non-sulfidic populations in river drainages lacking sulfide spring populations exhibit significant association preferences, suggesting that reinforcement (i.e.direct selection for assortative mating) may have shaped female association preferences (Greenway et al. 2016). However, the observed strengths of natural selection against immigrants and assortative mating preferences alone are not strong enough to explain the low observed levels of gene flow (Plath et al. 2013), indicating that other reproductive isolating barriers, such as genital incompatibilities, likely contribute to the strong reproductive isolation observed between populations (Bierbach et al. 2017).

Chimpanzees: The alpha male never directed aggression towards the infant; rather, he displayed attentive behaviours (holding the infant to his chest, supporting her while moving, grooming her)

Infant carrying by a wild chimpanzee father at Bulindi, Uganda. Marie Cibot et al. Primates, April 20 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10329-019-00726-z

Abstract: Although infanticide by wild adult male chimpanzees has been reported from multiple sites, affiliative infant carrying by males is rare. We observed infant carrying by an alpha male chimpanzee at Bulindi (Uganda) on two consecutive mornings and collected faecal samples from the newborn infant female, her mother and all candidate fathers to determine whether the alpha male was the infant’s father using a likelihood-based method of paternity assignment. In contrast to previous observations of male care of orphans, in this case the mother was present during observations. Further, unlike reports of male aggression towards infants, the infant was reunited with her mother on the third morning, and survived. Neither mother nor infant presented visible injuries. The alpha male never directed aggression towards the infant. Rather, he displayed attentive behaviours, for example by holding the infant to his chest, supporting her while moving, grooming her, and ‘cuddling’ and ‘rocking’ her. Paternity results revealed with a high degree of certainty that the alpha male was the infant’s father. There are several alternative explanations for the male’s behaviour, but this unusual case also highlights the need for further studies to determine under what circumstances adult male chimpanzees can recognise their own offspring.

Keywords: Infant carrying Paternity Pan troglodytes Bulindi Uganda

U.S. Strength and Alliance Relationships: The World's Most Successful Nonproliferation Tools?

U.S. Strength and Alliance Relationships: The World's Most Successful Nonproliferation Tools? Christopher Ashley Ford, US State Dept. Apr 18 2019. https://www.state.gov/t/isn/rls/rm/2019/291226.htm

Remarks by Dr. Christopher Ashley Ford, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation
Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Capitol Hill Club
Washington, DC, April 18, 2019

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you, Peter, for your kind introduction.

In my line of work, I speak frequently about the importance of the global nonproliferation regime, and about the security benefits that institutions such as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) provide to all States Party – and indeed, especially to the non-nuclear weapon states, insofar as the nonproliferation regime helps keep their regional neighbors and rivals from acquiring nuclear weapons. I also emphasize that it is the foundation of nonproliferation commitments and of standards for nuclear safety and security practices provided by that regime that makes worldwide sharing the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology possible and helps create the possibility of moving further toward nuclear disarmament. In my corner of the State Department, we work continually to maintain and improve the nonproliferation norms, institutions, and practices that help make all this possible.

Nevertheless, I’d like to speak today about another critical aspect of the global nonproliferation regime, albeit one that isn’t frequently talked as such. I refer to the United States’ alliance relationships, and to the deterrence and reassurance dynamics that result from our maintenance of a strong conventional and nuclear military posture.

To be sure, U.S. officials frequently refer to the impact our global “extended deterrence” relationships have had over the decades in helping prevent nuclear weapons proliferation. One hears this less, though, from foreign officials, and people don’t usually talk of U.S. military power and alliance relationships as being part of the global nonproliferation regime itself.

But I would submit that this aspect of the nonproliferation regime is exceedingly important, and should be discussed more widely. I’d like to dwell on this theme a little bit today, to you here at this breakfast, for I believe that no serious understanding of the global nonproliferation regime can ignore the importance and the impact of U.S. power as a nonproliferation tool. In fact, U.S. power is perhaps the world’s most successful nonproliferation tool – and we should not let ourselves forget this.

I. Forestalling an Anticipated Cascade of Proliferation

Students of Cold War nuclear history will know that highly classified U.S. intelligence estimates of proliferation potential in the 1950s and 1960s highlighted the danger that many countries would develop nuclear weapons. A number of National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) from the period have been declassified and publicly released, and you can find them on line fairly easily.

If you do, you’ll see an amazing number of places identified during those years as likely to acquire the ability to develop such weapons – and perhaps indeed increasingly likely to choose to do so as others progressively weaponized. NIEs from that era, for instance, discuss the possibility of weaponization in Australia, Belgium, Canada, China, Czechoslovakia, France, East Germany, West Germany, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Japan, Pakistan, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the United Arab Republic (that is, present-day Egypt and Syria).

Thank goodness, nothing nearly so dramatic as that potential cascade of proliferation actually occurred, though of course a small number of countries did eventually end up weaponizing. Commentators are quite right to give much credit for this to the NPT – which entered into force half a century ago next year – and to the institutions built up around and in relation to that treaty. And they do deserve much credit for forestalling the proliferation catastrophe that was initially feared.

But it is not the NPT alone that deserves credit. To give further credit where it is due, the Soviet Union actually helped, by policing its allies during the Cold War to prevent them from developing independent nuclear weapons capabilities. Of course, one might have wished that Moscow had been less willing to support and encourage China’s nuclear weapons program in the 1950s – but at least Nikita Khrushchev eventually thought better of this before fulfilling his previous promise to give Beijing a prototype nuclear weapon just before Mao Zedong began starving millions of his subjects to death during the so-called “Great Leap Forward.” On the whole, however, the Soviets quite properly recognized their own interest – and a common global interest – in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and Moscow was for the most part willing to act on this understanding, not least in cooperating with the United States in jointly drafting the NPT.

One might also wish that modern China and Russia took nonproliferation more seriously today. Beijing’s continued willingness to permit Chinese serial proliferators, such as Li Fangwei (also known as Karl Lee) to engage in transfers to Iran’s ballistic missile program – and Moscow’s current diplomatic assault upon global institutions for WMD control and accountability at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the United Nations, and the International Atomic Energy Agency – are nothing short of shameful. Whatever the reasons for this behavior – whether it is mere laxity in support of nonproliferation norms or deliberate efforts to appease their clients and counter U.S. influence – I think history will not treat them kindly for undermining the U.S.-led world order that has kept the peace and ensured prosperity since the Second World War. But Soviet power, at least, does deserve some credit for helping forestall the cascade of proliferation of which those early U.S. NIEs warned.

That said, however, it is worth stressing the great – and, ultimately, much more important – degree to which United States alliances and military posture, both conventional and nuclear, played a pivotal role in preventing the worst of what the Central Intelligence Agency worried in a 1966 NIE could be a cascade of “snowballing” of proliferation. Remembering the potency of U.S. global power as a nonproliferation tool is important not just so that we can really understand this history, but also because U.S. power is still a potent nonproliferation tool in ways that it would be unwise, or perhaps tragic, for present-day policymakers and the public to forget or to dismiss.

II. United States Power as a Nonproliferation Instrument

If you think back over the list I just read of the governments the 1950s and 1960s NIEs identified as potential future proliferators, I think it will be hard not to be struck by the extent to which many of them ended up being covered in various formal or informal ways under the so-called “nuclear umbrella” of U.S. “extended deterrence” during the Cold War, and thereafter. For quite a few countries, U.S. security relationships were critical factors in persuading them that, notwithstanding their growing degree of technological sophistication and access to the requisite materials, nuclear weaponization was unnecessary and needlessly risky.

As a serving U.S. government official, I have to be careful about what I say in this regard, but these issues have been discussed and documented in the academic literature for some years – so I would encourage you to consult such works to fill in any gaps that I may have to leave here today. But it is notably clear now not only that quite a few countries were forestalled from beginning to explore indigenous weaponization as a result of U.S. security guarantees, but also that a combination of U.S. security assurances and diplomatic pressure not to weaponize led a number of countries actually to abandon nuclear weapons programs that were already underway. Nonproliferation norms do not enforce themselves, and it is important to remember the critical role that U.S. power and diplomacy played in preventing the number of nuclear weapons possessors in the world today from being considerably higher.

U.S. military posture helped forestall certain countries’ weaponization choices in various ways. NATO’s so-called “nuclear burden sharing” that entails the forward deployment of U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons to Europe as a component of NATO’s nuclear deterrent, for instance, was designed to enhance deterrence by confronting the Soviets with a higher likelihood of nuclear response to any territorial aggression against NATO, even if Moscow’s intercontinental assets were somehow to deter an American strategic response because this might lead to retaliation against U.S. cities. But this arrangement also had the clear purpose of promoting nonproliferation, inasmuch as it helped persuade NATO allies that their security needs could and would be met without the need for indigenous nuclear weaponization, despite persistent threats from Moscow. NATO’s ultimate choice of this nuclear policy, in other words, augmented both deterrence and nonproliferation – in both cases, thankfully, quite successfully.

Tellingly, Moscow, itself recognized and accepted this enormous nonproliferation benefit from NATO’s nuclear policy, despite efforts by the current Russian regime to pretend otherwise. This can clearly be seen in now-declassified NATO and U.S. documents, such as the records from the U.S.-Soviet working group on negotiating the language that ultimately became Article I of the NPT.

Specifically, a September 1966 memorandum from that working group memorializes the Soviet delegation’s abandonment of its previous insistence upon language that would not only have prohibited the transfer to any non-nuclear weapon state of nuclear weapons themselves or control over them (as the NPT currently does), but also would have prevented consultation and planning for contingencies. This is why the NPT’s Article I has never presented any legal bar to NATO’s nuclear policy. One can attribute the 1966 Soviet concession in large part to Moscow’s grudging appreciation that NATO’s approach was key to dissuading NATO countries such as West Germany from pursuing weaponization of their own – as well as of the fact that the alternative to having NATO nuclear sharing blessed by Article I was something Moscow liked even less, namely, the then proposed “Multilateral Nuclear Force.”

But the nonproliferation benefit of U.S. military power and security policy was not limited to NATO members alone. Elsewhere in Western Europe outside NATO, U.S. security assurances helped lead to the abandonment of exploratory nuclear weapons programs in multiple additional countries. In East Asia, too, at least two governments abandoned their nuclear weapons programs as a result of a combination of U.S. pressure and U.S. military reassurances.

These various proliferation “dogs that didn’t bark” – if you’ll permit me to borrow from the Sherlock Holmes tale The Hound of the Baskervilles – are a critical aspect of our collective nonproliferation history. The nuclear weapons programs that didn’t happen, or that stopped, as a result of U.S. power and diplomatic engagement in deterring aggression and dissuading weaponization are today thankfully invisible. However, they are a huge part of the story of how the global nonproliferation regime managed to prevent the parade of proliferation problems about which so many U.S. NIEs worried so grimly in the 1950s and 1960s.

III. Conclusion

I believe this is an important lesson for us to remember here at today’s breakfast as we explore trends in and implications of developments in nuclear posture and policy among the various possessor states in this modern, 21st century context. Many of the most challenging aspects of the nuclear world today relate to the re-emergence and resurgence of great power competition, and its various manifestations in nuclear postures. Some of these dynamics are new, for we are all clearly in a very different strategic place in 2019 than U.S. leaders had hoped and expected to be as they looked forward at the nuclear future during the initial post-Cold War period.

But as we Americans work to cope with this novelty, and to re-learn how to devise and implement a sober and effective competitive strategy against aggressive Great Power rivals, we must also not forget the past. In particular, I would urge you to remember the ways in which our own conventional and nuclear military power has historically served not merely our own security interests, but also the broader interests of international peace and security by helping forestall the proliferation of mankind’s most dangerous weapons and thus greatly reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.

Critically, this impact is not purely historical, for such dynamics continue to operate in today’s world. As we contemplate how best to meet our national security needs and keep the peace, therefore, I urge you to keep these lessons in mind. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review was quite clear in this regard. A strong U.S. nuclear posture not only defends our allies against conventional and nuclear threats, but also helps allies forgo the need to develop their own nuclear arsenals. We are resolutely dedicated to ensuring that the United States’ strength in the world remains unquestioned and that this might continues to be used both to protect the lives and interests of the American people and to reduce proliferation dangers worldwide.

Thank you.

---
 Nuclear Disarmament Colloquium: Closing Remarks. Christopher Ashley Ford. Geneva, Switzerland, April 15, 2019. https://www.state.gov/t/isn/rls/rm/2019/291251.htm

Dr. Christopher Ashley Ford, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation

Excellencies, ladies, and gentlemen, I want to start by thanking Ambassador Gabrielse, Tom Coppen, and their colleagues from the Netherlands for organizing today’s colloquium, and for their tireless work to elevate global disarmament discourse. While multilateral fora are often the most visible stages upon which debates over nuclear disarmament play out, it is unfortunately also too often the case that diplomats on the disarmament and nonproliferation circuit simply repeat the same stale formulae for years at a time. The traditional discourse has become so frequently repetitive that many of us who do this a lot, especially in places such as the Conference on Disarmament here in Geneva, could probably give each other’s speeches from memory if we had to — or a good facsimile thereof, at any rate.

Especially right now, however — in a period in which, notwithstanding the remarkable disarmament progress that has been made since the end of the Cold War, global security conditions are deteriorating rather than improving — it seems very clear that more creativity and initiative are needed if our collective disarmament discourse is to be relevant to the challenges that we actually face in the world. Accordingly, it is wonderfully refreshing to see hybrid diplomatic and academic conferences, such as this one, exploring new ideas and providing nuanced thinking in support of a new and more constructive discourse.

Accordingly, I wish to thank today’s presenters. Perhaps never has the discourse around nuclear disarmament been in greater need of fresh thinking — something that all of you have contributed today. These discussions could hardly be more timely, and it is fantastic that my Dutch colleagues have so successfully pulled this event together.

You can be sure that your contributions here will certainly not go to waste; to the contrary, I have every confidence that they will be valuable contributions to the debates and discussions that will soon be getting underway through the “Creating the Environment for Nuclear Disarmament” (CEND) initiative. CEND, of course, is aimed at bringing countries together in a constructive dialogue exploring ways in which it might be possible to ameliorate conditions in the global security environment so as to make that environment more conducive to further progress toward — and indeed, ultimately to achieve — nuclear disarmament.

From a U.S. perspective, we shared some of our ideas about the CEND initiative in a Working Paper at last year’s NPT Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting, and in follow-up discussions at Wilton Park in the UK last December. I also look forward to having much more to say at this year’s PrepCom in New York about how we hope to operationalize this effort, as well as about the kind of questions it might be useful for the CEND working group to address. Nevertheless, we recognize that progress depends on this being a shared endeavor, taking into account other concepts and perspectives. Accordingly, I am gratified by the constructive responses and new ideas presented at this colloquium, which will enrich our future dialogue.

There have been so many interesting contributions here today that it’s hard to know where to start, and your collective insights defy easy summary. But I have been struck by the recurrence of some themes in these discussions — themes that I suspect it will be important for us all to remember as we continue to engage with these matters. A few that struck me, in no particular order:

    The importance of security dynamics and dilemmas in affecting nuclear weapons-related decisions, as well as the “messy” and politically idiosyncratic ways in which such decisions are made in practice — which makes clear that disarmament-focused decisions need to be alive to factors and considerations in addition to the usual sort of debates over the existence, non-existence, or numbers of the nuclear weapons themselves;

    An apparent tension between approaches — and choices of institutional fora for resolving disarmament problems — that rely heavily upon great power choices and participants and approaches that stress more “democratized” answers involving broader participation;

    A tension between the idea of nuclear disarmament to reduce the risk of nuclear war and the fear that such a move could open the door once again to non-nuclear war, raising questions about how the international community is to cope with the challenges of maintaining security in a disarmed environment;

    Unresolved questions about how to enforce any elimination of nuclear weapons;

    Paradoxical dynamics with respect to how emerging technologies and other forms of WMD affect disarmament issues — such as by simultaneously seeming to encourage some to conclude that nuclear deterrence is more necessary than ever in the face of such novel threats, while encouraging others to conclude that the risks of deterrence breakdown are high enough that disarmament is more attractive than ever; and

    The importance of how disarmament dilemmas and questions are framed and understood for consideration and decision, suggesting that the development and maintenance of narratives of disarmament — one way or the other — is a critical element of how the international community struggles with these matters.

Such thematic issue-spotting just scratches the surface, of course. But I can assure you that these discussions here today will be carefully studied, and I look forward to engaging more with you along these lines in the months ahead.

It is hard to overstate how important it is that thoughtful people continue to make new contributions to a new disarmament discourse. Let me be blunt. The global disarmament debate needs more efforts like this — and more contributions such as what you have offered here today.

It seems clear to me that traditional approaches to disarmament are not meeting the pressing needs of today’s world, just as it is clear that some of the more new-fangled approaches that have arisen out of some countries’ frustration with even more disarmament not having occurred cannot meet these needs. I would argue that, traditional approaches, at least of the sort which we were fortunate to be able to employ in earlier post-Cold War years, have largely run out of steam — both because the many weapons made unnecessary by the end of Cold War tensions have now already been dismantled, and because conditions in the global security environment are today worsening rather than improving.

As I stated earlier, today’s discussions could not have been timelier. Two weeks from today, most of the nations of the world will come together for the third and final Preparatory Committee for the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. There, the United States will detail its vision for operationalizing the CEND concept. From there, it will be up to the initiative’s participants to set the agenda and determine the mandate for the CEWG and its functional subgroups. Your inputs — both today and going forward — are vital to ensuring that this process reaches its full potential and reveals avenues for real progress on long-stalled efforts toward nuclear disarmament.

As we work with international partners to make this emerging dialogue a reality, I think the approach and the insights that animate today’s colloquium are precisely the right ones. I think we all share a commitment to bringing into being a world that is not only free of nuclear weapons, but is also one in which all people are safer and more secure than today. But these concepts are not necessarily synonymous — and that is why CEND’s focus upon the security environment is so important.

For my part, I do not want a world free of nuclear weapons merely in ways analogous to how the world of 1942 was free of them. That is, I do not seek a future world that might have temporarily banished “the Bomb,” but which remains susceptible to catastrophic, non-nuclear conflict between great powers — conflict that would not just be capable of killing millions itself, but which would create powerful incentives for countries to tumble back toward nuclear weaponization, arms races, and even nuclear use. Nor, of course, do I want a world that has eliminated nuclear weapons merely by setting them off in a cataclysmic nuclear war, after which the shattered remnants of humanity might be left essentially unable to rebuild such arsenals for a considerable period of time. Those are clearly not the right ways to do it!

Disarmament efforts that ignore the security dynamics of the real world in which actual countries make actual nuclear-related decisions — or efforts that disdain grappling with the challenges of prudent and effective nuclear posture for so long as such devices still exist, or with the challenges of preventing aggression and conflict thereafter — are approaches that are doomed to failure. We need a better sort of disarmament than that.

As I think some of the themes of today’s discussions have helped make clear, doing disarmament effectively, and doing it sustainably, requires engagement with hard questions of stability and security, and must explore the entanglement of nuclear questions with the myriad power and security dynamics of a troubled world. This, notably, will ask of us a kind of far-sighted multilateral dialogue about security conditions — and their potential amelioration — that has previously been in tragically short supply in the disarmament community. Nevertheless, we are working to change that, as this colloquium helps to demonstrate.

And so, I say “thank you” to all of you here today. Thank you for your interest in exploring such a dialogue; thank you for the insights you have shared here today about the challenges and possibilities of such a way forward; and thank you for your willingness to contribute to this great effort at the outset of what I hope will be a continuing and very productive journey together.

Please know that the United States is listening with great interest to your thoughtful insights, your fresh ideas, and your sincere critiques — and that you can count on me to continue to engage in future such efforts in the months and years ahead.

Thank you.

Optimal Well-Being After Major Depression: Only 10% of adults with study-documented depression were thriving 10 years later. To me, it is depressing to hear about that 10pct

Optimal Well-Being After Major Depression. Jonathan Rottenberg et al. Clinical Psychological Science, February 8, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/2167702618812708

Abstract: Can people achieve optimal well-being and thrive after major depression? Contemporary epidemiology dismisses this possibility, viewing depression as a recurrent, burdensome condition with a bleak prognosis. To estimate the prevalence of thriving after depression in United States adults, we used data from the Midlife Development in the United States study. To count as thriving after depression, a person had to exhibit no evidence of major depression and had to exceed cutoffs across nine facets of psychological well-being that characterize the top 25% of U.S. nondepressed adults. Overall, nearly 10% of adults with study-documented depression were thriving 10 years later. The phenomenon of thriving after depression has implications for how the prognosis of depression is conceptualized and for how mental health professionals communicate with patients. Knowing what makes thriving outcomes possible offers new leverage points to help reduce the global burden of depression.

Keywords: depression, emotion, epidemiology, happiness

Popular version: APS, Mar 17 2019, https://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/observer/obsonline/some-people-can-thrive-after-depression-study-finds.html

Internet connection frequency features are positively correlated with academic performance, whereas traffic volume features are negatively associated

Prediction of academic performance associated with Internet usage behaviors using machine learning algorithms. Xing Xu et al. Computers in Human Behavior, April 20 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2019.04.015

Highlights
•    New metrics to assess student’s academic performance are proposed.
•    Real Internet usage data of 4000 undergraduate students were calculated.
•    Undergraduate student’s academic performance can be differentiated and predicted from Internet usage behaviors.
•    Behavior discipline plays a vital role in student’s academic success.
•    Prediction accuracy generally increases with added features.

Abstract: College students are facilitated with increasingly convenient access to the Internet, which has a civilizing influence on students’ learning and living. This study attempts to reveal the association between Internet usage behaviors and academic performance, and to predict undergraduate’s academic performance from the usage data by machine learning. A set of features, including online duration, Internet traffic volume, and connection frequency, were extracted, calculated and normalized from the real Internet usage data of 4000 students. Three common machine learning algorithms of decision tree, neural network and support vector machine were used to predict academic performance from these features. The results indicate that behavior discipline plays a vital role in academic success. Internet connection frequency features are positively correlated with academic performance, whereas Internet traffic volume features are negatively associated with academic performance. From the perspective of the online time features, Internet time consumed results in unexpected performance between different datasets. Furthermore, as the number of features increase, prediction accuracy is generally improved in the methods. The results show that Internet usage data are capable of differentiating and predicting student’s academic performance.

These findings identify a common neural substrate underlying diverse general anesthetics drugs and natural sleep and reveal a crucial role of the neuroendocrine system in regulating global brain states

A Common Neuroendocrine Substrate for Diverse General Anesthetics and Sleep. Li-Feng Jiang-Xie et al. Neuron, April 18, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2019.03.033

Highlights
    •     General-anesthesia-activated neurons (AANs) are identified in hypothalamus
    •     AANs consist mainly of neuroendocrine cells in and near the supraoptic nucleus
    •     Activation of AANs promotes slow-wave sleep and extends general anesthesia
    •     Inhibition of AANs shortens general anesthesia and disrupts natural sleep

Summary: How general anesthesia (GA) induces loss of consciousness remains unclear, and whether diverse anesthetic drugs and sleep share a common neural pathway is unknown. Previous studies have revealed that many GA drugs inhibit neural activity through targeting GABA receptors. Here, using Fos staining, ex vivo brain slice recording, and in vivo multi-channel electrophysiology, we discovered a core ensemble of hypothalamic neurons in and near the supraoptic nucleus, consisting primarily of neuroendocrine cells, which are persistently and commonly activated by multiple classes of GA drugs. Remarkably, chemogenetic or brief optogenetic activations of these anesthesia-activated neurons (AANs) strongly promote slow-wave sleep and potentiates GA, whereas conditional ablation or inhibition of AANs led to diminished slow-wave oscillation, significant loss of sleep, and shortened durations of GA. These findings identify a common neural substrate underlying diverse GA drugs and natural sleep and reveal a crucial role of the neuroendocrine system in regulating global brain states.

Over 4 million nonfinancial firms from 21 countries, 1995–2015: A lower effective marginal tax rate improves firms’ survival chances, robust result when they partition the sample into country subgroups

Death and Taxes: Does Taxation Matter for Firm Survival? Serhan Cevik, Fedor Miryugin. IMF Working Paper No. 19/78, April 19, 2019. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/04/19/Death-and-Taxes-Does-Taxation-Matter-for-Firm-Survival-46712

Summary: This paper investigates the impact of taxation on firm survival, using hazard models and a large-scale panel dataset on over 4 million nonfinancial firms from 21 countries over the period 1995–2015. We find ample evidence that a lower level of effective marginal tax rate improves firms’ survival chances. This result is not only statistically but also economically important and remains robust when we partition the sample into country subgroups. The effect of taxation on firms’ survival probability is found to exhibit a non-linear pattern and be stronger in developing countries than advanced economies. These findings have important policy implications for the design of corporate tax systems. The challenge is not simply reducing the statutory tax rate, but to level the playing field for all firms by rationalizing differentiated tax treatments across sectors, asset types and sources of financing.

Can People Detect Ideological Stance from Facial Photographs? Seems not.

Can People Detect Ideological Stance from Facial Photographs? Tamsin K. Saxton, Sophie L. Hart,Lucy V. Desai, Thomas V. Pollet. Human Ethology, Volume 34, 17-25, April 17, 2019. https://doi.org/10.22330/he/34/017-025

ABSTRACT: Nonverbal cues are instrumental in animal social interactions, and humans place especial value on facial appearance and displays to predict and interpret others’ behaviours. Several studies have reported that people can judge someone’s political orientation (e.g. Republican vs Democrat) based on facial appearance at greater-than-chance accuracy. This begs the question of the granularity of such judgements. Here, we investigate whether people can judge one aspect of political orientation (attitudes to immigration) based on the facial photographs that politicians use to represent themselves on the European Parliament website. We find no evidence of such ability, and no evidence for an interaction between the judges’ own attitudes to immigration and their accuracy. Many studies report facial manifestations of attitudinal and behavioural proclivities, and yet we should not lose sight of the fact that facial appearance may be a relatively impoverished cue relative to other potential sources of information.

Keywords: Appearance, face judgements, thin slices.

Even so, it was not so a far-fetched idea... Check People Can Accurately (But Not Adaptively) Judge Strangers’ Antigay Prejudice from Faces. Ravin Alaei, Nicholas O. Rule. Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, Apr 5 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/04/people-can-accurately-but-not.html

Advantageous Selection in a Voluntary Army: Volunteers and drafted men showed no significant difference in fatalities, but volunteers earned distinguished awards at a higher rate than drafted men

“Gallantry in Action”: Evidence of Advantageous Selection in a Voluntary Army. Javier A. Birchenall, Thomas G. Koch. The Journal of Law and Economics, Volume 58, Number 1, February 1, 2015. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/682906

Abstract: A voluntary army’s quality exceeds or falls below a drafted army’s average quality depending on whether selection is advantageous or adverse. Using a collection of data sets that cover the majority of the US Army soldiers during World War II, we test for adverse selection into the army. Rather, we find advantageous selection: volunteers and drafted men showed no significant difference in fatalities, but volunteers earned distinguished awards at a higher rate than drafted men, particularly after the attack on Pearl Harbor. Analyses at the level of units concur with our findings based on enlistment records.

Savoring, or one’s tendency to attend to and enjoy previous, current, and future positive events, is positively related to relationship satisfaction; especially so in the anticipative branch of savoring

Lenger, K. A., & Gordon, C. L. (2019). To have and to savor: Examining the associations between savoring and relationship satisfaction. Couple and Family Psychology: Research and Practice, 8(1), 1-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/cfp0000111

Abstract: Savoring, or one’s tendency to attend to and enjoy previous, current, and future positive events, is composed of 3 facets: savoring in anticipation, savoring the present moment, and savoring in reminiscence. Whereas research is now accumulating on potential benefits that savoring may have for a variety of individual indicators of well-being, it remains unclear whether savoring may also be relevant to relational well-being. The present investigation seeks to address this gap in the literature by establishing whether savoring is associated with relationship satisfaction, and if so, which facet(s) of savoring are the strongest predictors of relationship satisfaction. Data were collected from 122 undergraduates from a southeastern university currently participating in monogamous dating relationships. Analyses revealed that total savoring as well as each facet of savoring, namely, anticipation, present moment, and reminiscence, were positively related to relationship satisfaction. A subsequent simultaneous multiple regression analysis indicated that anticipation uniquely predicted relationship satisfaction, above and beyond reminiscence and present moment facets of savoring. Overall, it appears that attending to and enjoying positive events is associated with a happier relationship. Furthermore, these data suggest that anticipation may be a component of savoring that is particularly relevant to relationship satisfaction. Results are discussed in the context of optimizing relational well-being.

Visual perfection: Our data are best explained by a model that is based on the optimal decision strategy, but with imperfections in its execution (suboptimal inference)

Imperfect Bayesian inference in visual perception. Elina Stengård, Ronald van den Berg. PLOS, April 18, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006465

Abstract: Optimal Bayesian models have been highly successful in describing human performance on perceptual decision-making tasks, such as cue combination and visual search. However, recent studies have argued that these models are often overly flexible and therefore lack explanatory power. Moreover, there are indications that neural computation is inherently imprecise, which makes it implausible that humans would perform optimally on any non-trivial task. Here, we reconsider human performance on a visual-search task by using an approach that constrains model flexibility and tests for computational imperfections. Subjects performed a target detection task in which targets and distractors were tilted ellipses with orientations drawn from Gaussian distributions with different means. We varied the amount of overlap between these distributions to create multiple levels of external uncertainty. We also varied the level of sensory noise, by testing subjects under both short and unlimited display times. On average, empirical performance—measured as d’—fell 18.1% short of optimal performance. We found no evidence that the magnitude of this suboptimality was affected by the level of internal or external uncertainty. The data were well accounted for by a Bayesian model with imperfections in its computations. This “imperfect Bayesian” model convincingly outperformed the “flawless Bayesian” model as well as all ten heuristic models that we tested. These results suggest that perception is founded on Bayesian principles, but with suboptimalities in the implementation of these principles. The view of perception as imperfect Bayesian inference can provide a middle ground between traditional Bayesian and anti-Bayesian views.

Author summary: The main task of perceptual systems is to make truthful inferences about the environment. The sensory input to these systems is often astonishingly imprecise, which makes human perception prone to error. Nevertheless, numerous studies have reported that humans often perform as accurately as is possible given these sensory imprecisions. This suggests that the brain makes optimal use of the sensory input and computes without error. The validity of this claim has recently been questioned for two reasons. First, it has been argued that a lot of the evidence for optimality comes from studies that used overly flexible models. Second, optimality in human perception is implausible due to limitations inherent to neural systems. In this study, we reconsider optimality in a standard visual perception task by devising a research method that addresses both concerns. In contrast to previous studies, we find clear indications of suboptimalities. Our data are best explained by a model that is based on the optimal decision strategy, but with imperfections in its execution.

Popular summary: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-04-brain-imperfect-mathematically-optimal-perception.html

Sexual selection & the evolution of male & female cognition in seed beetles: polygamous males outperform cognitively monogamous males; polygamous females show no improvement

Sexual selection and the evolution of male and female cognition: a test using experimental evolution in seed beetles. Julian Baur, Jean d'Amour, David Berger. bioRxiv 514711, Jan 9 2019. https://doi.org/10.1101/514711

Abstract: The mating mind hypothesis, originally aimed at explaining human cognition, holds that the socio-sexual environment shapes cognitive abilities among animals. Similarly, general sexual selection theory predicts that mate competition should benefit individuals carrying "good genes" with beneficial pleiotropic effects on general cognitive ability. However, few experimental studies have evaluated these related hypotheses due to difficulties of performing direct tests in most taxa. Here we harnessed the empirical potential of the seed beetle study system to investigate the role of sexual selection and mating system in the evolution of cognition. We evolved replicate lines of beetle under enforced monogamy (eliminating sexual selection) or polygamy for 35 generations and then challenged them to locate and discriminate among mating partners (male assays) or host seeds (female assays). To assess learning, the same beetles performed the task in three consecutive rounds. All lines learned the task, improving both within and between trails. Moreover, polygamous males outperformed monogamous males. However, there were no differences in the rate of learning between males of the two regimes, and polygamous females showed no improvement in host search, and even signs of reduced learning. Hence, while sexual selection was a potent factor that increased cognitive performance in mate search, it did not lead to the general increase in cognitive abilities expected under the mating mind hypothesis or general good genes theory. Our results highlight sexually antagonistic (balancing) selection as a potential force maintaining genetic variation in cognitive traits.

From 2018: High consumption of pornography correlates with the more frequent practice of some sexual behaviors; there is a relationship between the intensity of certain sexual behaviors & affective temperament

Sexo, pornografia e temperamento. Laura Dick e Silva. Dissertation, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Escola de Medicina, Aug 2018, http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/8441

Abstract:
Introduction: A satisfactory and healthy sex life is one of four markers considered by the World Health Organization to measure quality of life. When we study sexual behaviors, we can create evidence that can be used in different ways in the health area.

Objectives: To analyze the relationship between the consumption of pornography and certain sexual practices, as well as the relationship between affective temperament and sexual behaviors. Methods: Participants between the ages of 21 and 50 were included, who answered standardized questions about the consumption of pornography and certain sexual practices (e.g. frequency of sexual intercourse, frequency of masturbation, number of sexual partners, casual sex), through the website www.temperamento.com.br. Through this validated questionnaire it was possible to categorize individuals by their affective temperaments. Statistical analyzes were performed using chi-square, Spearman’s correlation and multinomial logistic regression.

Results: The high consumption of pornography correlates with the more frequent practice of some sexual behaviors, which is different between men and women. In addition, there is a relationship between the intensity of the practice of certain sexual behaviors and the affective temperament of individuals. Individuals with externalizing temperaments are more strongly involved in the practice of sexual behaviors, whereas the opposite is observed among internalized individuals.

Conclusion: The consumption of pornography is associated with the practice and frequency of sexual behaviors and there are differences between men and women in relation to sexual behaviors and attitudes. The intensity of sexual behaviors is related to the type of affective temperament.

Sex-positive personal characteristics (attractiveness, sexual fantasy, pornography use) & positive relational ones (commitment, egalitarianism, & sexual frequency) are related to more sexual novelty

Encouraging erotic variety: Identifying correlates of, and strategies for promoting, sexual novelty in romantic relationships. Marissa N. Rosa et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 146, 1 August 2019, Pages 158-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.04.009

Abstract: In the present investigation, we identified correlates of sexual novelty in existing relationships and also investigated whether experimentally manipulating persuasive information about sexual novelty could encourage sexual novelty within a relationship. Participants in committed relationships of 6 months or longer were recruited online through Amazon's Mechanical Turk to complete a two-part survey on sexual relationships. The initial survey (Time 1) was completed by 352 predominantly White US citizens (204 women, 146 men, 2 unreported), and a subset of 244 people (140 women, 101 men, 3 unreported) completed the follow-up survey two weeks later (Time 2). We found that several sex-positive personal characteristics (e.g., pornography use and sexual fantasy) and positive relational characteristics (e.g., commitment, egalitarianism, and sexual frequency) are related to engaging in sexual novelty, as well as desire for sexual novelty, willingness to initiate sexual novelty, and willingness to comply with partner-initiated sexual novelty. We also found that certain persuasive strategies (i.e., those incorporating fear appeals, narrative accounts, or examples of successful initiation strategies) may be effective at altering perceptions of sexual novelty and increasing novel intimate behavior between relationship partners.

---
General discussion

In order to extend the literature on sexual novelty, the current study sought to identify correlates of sexual novelty and to investigate whether learning more about sexual novelty could result in changes in attitudes and behaviors toward sexual novelty within a relationship. Whereas previous research has shown that engaging in arousing, novel behaviors can increase sexual satisfaction and relationship satisfaction (Aron et al., 2000; Morton & Gorzalka, 2015), our correlational results identified both personal factors (i.e., age, religiosity, bodily attractiveness, body consciousness, sexual boredom, sexual fantasy, and pornography use) and relational factors (i.e., length of relationship, length of sexual relationship, commitment, egalitarianism, and sex frequency) associated with how much sexual novelty a person is likelyto engage in. Additionally, prior research has documented how detrimental sexual boredom can be to a relationship, potentially resulting in infidelity (e.g.,Allen et al., 2008), divorce (e.g., Counts & Reid, 1987),or relationship dissolution (e.g.,Hill et al., 1976). Therefore, an important contribution of our study is thefinding that levels of sexual novelty can be influenced—and levels of sexual boredom can potentially be decreased as a result—through the introduction of additionalinformation about sexual novelty using certain persuasive methods, further extending the literature on the use of fear appeals (e.g., Tannenbaum et al., 2015), narrative accounts (e.g., De Wit et al., 2008), strategies (e.g., Humphreys & Newby, 2007), and self-efficacy (e.g.,Azjen, 1991) in persuasion.

Another interesting result from the current study was the positiverelationship we found between sexual novelty and religiosity. Contrary to our predictions, the more religious people were, the more likely they were to report engaging in sexual novelty in their current relationships. However, Matthews et al. (2018) found both a positive and a negative relationship between religiosity and sexual novelty in two different samples; as such, it is possible that the conflicting finding of the current research may be an anomaly, and further replication is necessary to fully understand the relationship between religiosity and sexual novelty. One possible explanation is that more religious people may notactually be engaging in more sexual novelty but rather subjectively interpreting their sexual activities as more novel. Consistent with this notion, research shows a negative association between conventional religiosity and sensation seeking (Zuckerman & Neeb, 1980); thus, thethreshold for novel sexual activity may be lower for more religious people.

We also found an interesting correlation between sexual boredomand sexual novelty. As expected, the more sexual boredom people re-ported experiencing, the more likely they were to report lower levels ofsexual novelty within their current relationships and the less willingthey were to initiate and comply with sexual novelty initiated by apartner. However, people who reported experiencing more sexualboredom were also more likely to desire sexual novelty within theirrelationships. The idea that people who are bored sexually have a desire for sexual novelty but are unwilling or unmotivated to take action to fulfill this desire seems to be related to the view that sexual boredom is unavoidable in long-term relationships (Tunariu & Reavey, 2003). Similarly, given that sexual boredom predicts relationship and sexual dissatisfaction (e.g., Tunariu & Reavey, 2007), it is plausible that thelack of motivation to engage in sexual novelty with their relationshippartner could lead individuals to fulfill their desire for sexual novelty by seeking extra-dyadic relationships.

Visualization of male and female superheroes: Males were on average “obese” whereas females were uniformly thin and hyperfeminine; these bodies can be thought of as exaggerations of what is attractive

Burch, R. L., & Johnsen, L. (2019). Captain Dorito and the bombshell: Supernormal stimuli in comics and film. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, Apr 18, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/ebs0000164

Abstract: We examined the visualization of male and female superheroes, paying attention to physical dimensions and costuming that accentuated hyper-masculine or hyper-feminine features such as shoulder-to-waist ratio, jawlines, upper body muscularity, waist-to-hip ratio, and breast morphology. Body mass index (BMI) data were collected for 3,752 Marvel comic characters. Males were on average “obese” whereas females averaged at the low end of normal weight. The male higher body mass was caused by extreme upper body muscularity, with male shoulder-to-waist ratios far above human limits. This is in stark contrast to low weight female superhero bodies with far lower waist-to-hip ratios than average humans. The endocrine markers that are exaggerated in these depictions create supernormal sexual stimuli for each sex.

Public Significance Statement—An examination of over 3,000 comic book characters and hundreds of drawings found that male characters were huge and well beyond the normal range for shoulder-to-waist ratio, resembling and exaggerating the Captain Dorito meme (the concept that Captain America, as played by Chris Evans, has the shoulder-to-waist ratio of a triangular Dorito corn chip). Female bodies were uniformly thin and hyperfeminine, with waist-to-hip ratios smaller than the most sought-after porn actresses. These bodies can be thought of as supernormal stimuli; exaggerations of what humans have long found attractive.

A majority of people believe that, as pedestrians, they make eye contact with the driver of an approaching vehicle when making their crossing decisions; this widely held belief is false

Eye Contact Between Pedestrians and Drivers. Dina AlAdawy, Michael Glazer, Jack Terwilliger, Henri Schmidt, Josh Domeyer, Bruce Mehler, Bryan Reimer, Lex Fridman. To appear in Proceedings of 2019 Driving Assessment Conference, submitted Apr 8 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.04188

Abstract: When asked, a majority of people believe that, as pedestrians, they make eye contact with the driver of an approaching vehicle when making their crossing decisions. This work presents evidence that this widely held belief is false. We do so by showing that, in majority of cases where conflict is possible, pedestrians begin crossing long before they are able to see the driver through the windshield. In other words, we are able to circumvent the very difficult question of whether pedestrians choose to make eye contact with drivers, by showing that whether they think they do or not, they can't. Specifically, we show that over 90\% of people in representative lighting conditions cannot determine the gaze of the driver at 15m and see the driver at all at 30m. This means that, for example, that given the common city speed limit of 25mph, more than 99% of pedestrians would have begun crossing before being able to see either the driver or the driver's gaze. In other words, from the perspective of the pedestrian, in most situations involving an approaching vehicle, the crossing decision is made by the pedestrian solely based on the kinematics of the vehicle without needing to determine that eye contact was made by explicitly detecting the eyes of the driver.

The long-lasting effects of family and childhood on adult wellbeing: Evidence from British cohort data

The long-lasting effects of family and childhood on adult wellbeing: Evidence from British cohort data. SarahFlèche, Warn N. Lekfuangfu, Andrew E. Clark. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, April 18 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.09.018

Abstract: To what extent do childhood experiences continue to affect adult wellbeing over the life course? Previous work on this link has been carried out either at one particular adult age or for some average over adulthood. We here use two British birth-cohort datasets (the 1958 NCDS and the 1970 BCS) to map out the time profile of the effect of childhood experiences on adult outcomes, including life satisfaction. We find that the effects of many aspects of childhood do not fade away over time but are rather remarkably stable. In both birth-cohorts, child non-cognitive skills are the strongest predictors of adult life satisfaction at all ages. Of these, emotional health is the strongest. Childhood cognitive performance is more important than good conduct in explaining adult life satisfaction in the earlier NCDS cohort, whereas this ranking is inverted in the more recent BCS.

---
6. Conclusions

There is now increasing interest in not only the contemporaneous correlates of subjective well-being but also the distal correlates. We here use two UK birth cohorts, the 1958 NCDS and the 1970 BCS, to show how family background and childhood variables are related to life satisfaction measured at a variety of adult ages.

There are first a number of similar findings across the two cohorts. Perhaps the most important one is that there is little evidence that the distal determinants of adult well-being change over time: the childhood factors that predict life satisfaction in the 20s predict it just as well in the 40s and beyond. The effect of childhood and family does not then fade away over time. In both cohort datasets, it is childhood emotional health that is the strongest predictor of adult life satisfaction.

The predictors of adult life satisfaction are not entirely the same in the BCS and NCDS, however. In particular, the role of childhood intellectual performance is weaker in the later cohort, while the effect of childhood behaviour is stronger (childhood behaviour is not significantly correlated with adult life satisfaction in the NCDS).

When we add adult outcomes, we find that adult emotional health has the largest correlation with adult life satisfaction at all ages in both datasets, but there is little independent role for education. There are again some notable differences: family is more important in the NCDS than in the BCS (although the family effect is notably larger in the latter for respondents in their 30s). Physical health is less important in general in the NCDS, but its coefficient does increase sharply for the respondents at age 50.

The adult outcomes mediate the effect of childhood. Almost all of the effect of childhood intellectual performance works via these adult outcomes, and over half that of childhood emotional health. The figure for childhood behaviour is smaller.

Our results underline the importance of emotional health, both in adulthood and childhood, in determining adult life satisfaction. More broadly, they show that interventions that affect adult outcomes, given childhood and family background, can improve adult well-being, and so can interventions that target the childhood outcomes themselves. There is thus a role for policy all through the lifetime.

The correlations that we find here are similar for our two UK cohorts. But we still only know how to predict the life satisfaction of middle-aged British respondents. That the correlations are similar over adult ages is a useful finding, but one that we would like to extend to older ages. Equally, these results refer to only one country, and their replication elsewhere is part of a current broad international effort to use cohort datasets to inform policy about the causes of well-being throughout life.

More likely to engage in prosocial behavior when they want to improve success in unrelated future situations (“karmic bargaining”), & more frequently when in a situation they wanted to turn out well

Belief in karma: How cultural evolution, cognition, and motivations shape belief in supernatural justice. Cindel J.M.White, Ara Norenzayan. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, April 17 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aesp.2019.03.001

Abstract: Karma is believed to be a source of supernatural justice through which actions lead to morally congruent outcomes, within and across lifetimes. It is a central tenet of many world religions and appears in the social evaluations expressed by religious and non-religious individuals across diverse cultural contexts. Despite its prevalence, research directly investigating belief in karma is currently underrepresented in psychological studies of religion, morality, and justice. In this chapter, we situate karma within existing theories of religious cognition and justice beliefs, while highlighting how it is related to, but distinct from, belief in moralizing gods, beliefs about justice that lack religious or supernatural connotations, and magical thinking. We first describe two prominent explanations for the cross-cultural prevalence of supernatural justice beliefs: These beliefs arise as the by-products of other, more general cognitive mechanisms, and these beliefs are supported by core motivations for sense-making, meaning maintenance, and psychological control. We then consider how questions left unresolved by these cognitive and motivational perspectives, regarding the cross-cultural variability in explicit supernatural justice beliefs, can be explained through a cultural evolutionary perspective on religious cognition. Finally, we describe how these supernatural justice beliefs affect causal judgments and elicit norm-adherence and prosociality among believers.

---
2.2 Karma, justice, and fairness
[...] Additionally, North American participants are often willing to make immanent justice attributions, such as admitting that an uncontrollable misfortune is caused by a salient past moral transgressions, while strongly rejecting that misfortune is caused by morallyirrelevant past actions (Callan, Ellard, & Nicol, 2006; Callan, Sutton, & Dovale, 2010; Young et al., 2011). Even people who explicitly deny immanent justice attributions show evidence of intuitive reactions consistent with fairness principles. Reaction time studies indicate that French participants, who explicitly rejected causal attributions for misfortune, still showed evidence of immanent justice intuitions that required effortful suppressions: Participants were slower to reject causal attributions when misfortune followed proportionate bad deeds, and quicker to reject causal attributions when misfortune followed good actions and when misfortune was disproportionate to misdeeds [...].

Similar expectations appear among North Americans when making predictions about the future: People who engage in immoral behavior are expected to have a greater likelihood of bad experiences in the future, at the hands of other people (e.g., being betrayed by a friend, being treated rudely by other people) and forces of nature (e.g., getting a serious illness, having their home damaged by a natural disaster, White, Schaller, & Norenzayan, 2019). Even when not explicitly endorsed, this expectation has been found in North American children and adults who are more likely to engage in prosocial behavior when they want to improve success in unrelated future situations, a strategy known as “karmic bargaining” (Banerjee & Bloom, 2017; Converse, Risen, & Carter, 2012).




In Western samples, karmic bargaining is especially prevalent when belief in a just world is combined with uncertainty about the future. Converse et al. (2012) found greater prosocial behavior among American students and adult online samples after they wrote about a personally relevant ongoing situation that they wanted to turn out well (e.g., important test, job interview, or medical procedure), compared to participants who wrote about their daily routine. This effect was replicated in the context of a job fair, where job-seekers donated more money to charity when they were reminded about the uncertainty of their employment opportunities, compared to when they felt secure in their prospects. Subsequently, those who donated money felt more optimistic about their future.

8. Conclusion
In this chapter, we have described how belief in karmic causality can be studied as a psychological construct that is rooted in core cognitive, motivational, and cultural processes that are central to social psychology. We discussed karma alongside beliefs about morally-concerned gods and expectations about non-supernatural justice, to highlight how common cognitive tendencies and motivations can give rise to a variety of different beliefs. Individual differences (e.g., reliance on intuitive thinking, being “spiritual but not religious”) and situational factors (e.g., uncertainty, a need for structure, and salient past misdeeds followed by misfortune) could similarly encourage belief in karmic causality, morally-concerned gods, and secular justice. Similarly, different concepts can have comparable effects on behavior, such as when Christians reminded of God, or Hindus, Buddhists, and non-religious Americans reminded of karma, become more likely to engage in normative behavior. Karmic beliefs in non-Western, non-Christian cultural contexts provide an important testing ground of theories of religion, morality, and justice across different cultural contexts, extending prevailing research largely tested in Western samples.

Furthermore, many people believe only in a subset of all possible supernatural justice concepts. Cognitive biases and motivational factors are insufficient to explain this variability. The cultural transmission of commitment to particular beliefs is necessary to explain the intertwining of supernatural causality and morality, the presence of agentic vs. nonagentic supernatural entities, and whether causation is believed to happen within interpersonal relationships, within one lifetime, or across lifetimes. In this chapter, we have provided preliminary evidence that belief in karma reflects a unique constellation of these elements and that variability in supernatural justice beliefs can shape causal attributions and behavior in particular belief-consistent ways. Many open questions remain about how cognitive, motivational, and cultural factors interact to shape supernatural justice beliefs, and how the particular beliefs that people hold exert unique effects on cognition and behavior. Throughout this chapter, we have raised several novel hypotheses worthy of future research and described how existing theories of religion and justice can fruitfully be extended to explain a variety of worldviews that are prevalent in diverse cultures around the world.

Gendered perceptions of fairness in housework and shared expenses: Fairness evaluations over shared expenses are a stronger predictor of relationship quality than perceived equity in housework

Gendered perceptions of fairness in housework and shared expenses: Implications for relationship satisfaction and sex frequency. Brian Joseph Gillespie, Gretchen Peterson, Janet Lever. PLOS, March 20, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214204

Abstract: There is a demonstrated relationship between couples’ division of household chores—and, to a lesser extent, the division of shared expenses—and their relationship quality. Less is known, however, about whether and how individuals’ perceived fairness of these arrangements is associated with couples’ relationships in different ways. Using a gendered equity framework, and drawing on 10,236 responses collected via an online national news website, this study examines how equity evaluations of housework and shared expenses are related to relationship satisfaction and sex frequency among different-gender household partners. Consistent with previous findings, the results indicate that evaluations of unfairness to oneself are a stronger predictor of relationship quality than perceived unfairness to one’s partner. Additionally, fairness evaluations over shared expenses are a stronger predictor of relationship quality than perceived equity in housework. Incorporating notions about traditional gender norms and expectations into the justice framework, the results point to some variation in relationship outcomes based on men’s and women’s differential equity evaluations.

Check also Sex and housework: Does perceived fairness of the distribution of housework actually matter? Kristin Hajek. Zeitschrift für Familienforschung, 31. Jahrg., 2019, Heft 1 ‒ Journal of Family Research https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/04/how-changes-in-distribution-of.html

How changes in the distribution of housework and the perception of fairness affect sexual satisfaction and sexual frequency: Distribution of household tasks does not improve sexual satisfaction or sexual frequency

Sex and housework: Does perceived fairness of the distribution of housework actually matter? Kristin Hajek. Zeitschrift für Familienforschung, 31. Jahrg., 2019, Heft 1 ‒ Journal of Family Research https://doi.org/10.3224/zff.v31i1.05

Abstract: Recent findings suggest that couples who perceive their housework distribution to be fair have more frequent sexual encounters and are more satisfied with their sex life. However, past research has relied on between-person comparisons and might therefore be biased due to unobserved confounders. By applying fixed effects panel models, this study seeks to eliminate all time-constant, group-specific heterogeneity. Using data from 1,315 cohabiting and married couples from the German Family Panel (pairfam), I have examined how changes in the distribution of housework and the perception of fairness affect sexual satisfaction and sexual frequency. Moreover, I distinguish between core (traditionally female) and non-core (traditionally male) household tasks to verify the hypothesis that a gender-stereotypic distribution of household tasks fosters sexual activity. No effect of the division of labor or the perception of fairness thereof on sexual satisfaction and sexual frequency could be found.

Key words: housework distribution, fixed effects, pairfam, perceived fairness, sexual frequency, sexual satisfaction

---
1. Introduction
More often than not, housework is distributed traditionally between men and women in cohabiting relationships (Bianchi et al. 2012). Over the past few decades, men’s share of housework has increased, but women still tend to carry most of the workload in the home (Bianchi et al. 2000; Bianchi et al. 2012; Blair/Lichter 1991; Klünder/Meier-Gräwe 2018). Moreover, studies show that partnership characteristics are influenced by the dis-tribution of unpaid family work. For example, if the man’s share of housework increases, the woman’s partnership satisfaction seems to rise and conflicts occur less often (Amato et al. 2003; Coltrane 2000). The likelihood for second births is also higher if the father participates to a greater degree in housework and child care (Cooke 2004). Therefore, an equal distribution of housework could be beneficial to a partnership. On the other hand, some researchers suggest that it is actually the perceived fairness of the division of labor that influences partnership satisfaction, rather than the actual distribution of household tasks (Coltrane 2000). If individuals perceive their share of housework to be justified, they appear to be happier with their relationship (Coltrane 2000). However, relatively few studies to date have addressed how exactly housework distribution and the perceived fair-ness thereof influence a couple’s sexual relationship.

Sexual frequency and satisfaction are both important factors in an intimate relation-ship. Sexuality has been found to be related to marital satisfaction (Smith et al. 2011) as well as union stability (Yabiku/Gager 2009). Therefore, it is important to examine possible influences of housework on a couple’s sex life. Since the Kinsey reports (Kinsey et al. 1948), the frequency of sexual intercourse and sexual satisfaction in relationships have received considerable attention in the social sciences. However, due to the lack of longitudinal data, the majority of studies has relied on cross-sectional analyses. Kornrich and colleagues (2013) examined married couples in the United States and found a positive correlation between a gender-stereotypic division of housework and sexual frequency. However, they analyzed decades-old, cross-sectional data and did not take into account the perceived fairness of a couple’s housework distribution. 

Using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), a randomly sampled panel sur-vey with focus on partnership and family dynamics, I have examined how changes in the distribution of housework and the perception of fairness affect sexual frequency and sex-ual satisfaction for cohabiting and married couples from a longitudinal perspective. Johnson and colleagues (2016) also analyzed pairfam data in this regard with autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) models. They found an association between men’s perceived fair-ness of housework distribution and a couple’s sex life, but no association to the actual distribution of housework. However, Johnson and colleagues did not distinguish between core (traditionally female) and non-core (traditionally male) tasks as suggested by Kornrich et al. (2013), and thus cannot fully refute the findings of Kornrich and colleagues (2013). By categorizing household tasks into traditionally male and female, the following analyses aim to verify the hypothesis that a gender-stereotypic distribution of household tasks stimulates sexual scripts and leads to an increase in sexual intercourse. Further, both studies mentioned above may be biased due to unobserved heterogeneity, with one rely-ing on between-person comparisons and the other not differentiating between and within variation. By applying fixed effects regression models, I can eliminate all couple-specific time-constant heterogeneity and examine whether a change in the division of household labor and/or the perception of fairness thereof actually influences sexual satisfaction and frequency in intimate relationships.

Language Origins Viewed in Spontaneous and Interactive Vocal Rates of Bonobo Infants: While bonobo mothers were physically responsive to their infants, we didn't see a bonobo mother's vocalization directed to her infant

Language Origins Viewed in Spontaneous and Interactive Vocal Rates of Human and Bonobo Infants. D. Kimbrough Oller, Ulrike Griebel, Suneeti Nathani Iyer, Yuna Jhang, Anne S. Warlaumont, Rick Dale and Josep Call. Front. Psychol., April 2 2019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00729

Abstract: From the first months of life, human infants produce “protophones,” speech-like, non-cry sounds, presumed absent, or only minimally present in other apes. But there have been no direct quantitative comparisons to support this presumption. In addition, by 2 months, human infants show sustained face-to-face interaction using protophones, a pattern thought also absent or very limited in other apes, but again, without quantitative comparison. Such comparison should provide evidence relevant to determining foundations of language, since substantially flexible vocalization, the inclination to explore vocalization, and the ability to interact socially by means of vocalization are foundations for language. Here we quantitatively compare data on vocalization rates in three captive bonobo (Pan paniscus) mother–infant pairs with various sources of data from our laboratories on human infant vocalization. Both humans and bonobos produced distress sounds (cries/screams) and laughter. The bonobo infants also produced sounds that were neither screams nor laughs and that showed acoustic similarities to the human protophones. These protophone-like sounds confirm that bonobo infants share with humans the capacity to produce vocalizations that appear foundational for language. Still, there were dramatic differences between the species in both quantity and function of the protophone and protophone-like sounds. The bonobo protophone-like sounds were far less frequent than the human protophones, and the human protophones were far less likely to be interpreted as complaints and more likely as vocal play. Moreover, we found extensive vocal interaction between human infants and mothers, but no vocal interaction in the bonobo mother–infant pairs—while bonobo mothers were physically responsive to their infants, we observed no case of a bonobo mother vocalization directed to her infant. Our cross-species comparison focuses on low- and moderate-arousal circumstances because we reason the roots of language entail vocalization not triggered by excitement, for example, during fighting or intense play. Language appears to be founded in flexible vocalization, used to regulate comfortable social interaction, to share variable affective states at various levels of arousal, and to explore vocalization itself.

Politically incorrect paper: Given that sex egalitarian countries tend to have the greatest sex differences in personality & occupational choices, sex specific policies (increasing vacancies for the sex with lower hire proportion) may not be effective

Sex and Care: The Evolutionary Psychological Explanations for Sex Differences in Formal Care Occupations. Peter Kay Chai Tay, Yi Yuan Ting and Kok Yang Tan. Front. Psychol., April 17 2019. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00867

Abstract: Men and women exhibit clear differences in occupational choices. The present article elucidates sex differences in terms of formal care occupational choices and care styles based on evolutionary psychological perspectives. Broadly (1) the motivation to attain social status drives male preference for occupations that signals prestige and the desire to form interpersonal affiliation underlies female preference for occupations that involve psychosocial care for people in need; (2) ancestral sex roles leading to sexually differentiated cognitive and behavioral phenotypic profiles underlie present day sex differences in care styles where men are things-oriented, focusing on disease management while women are people-oriented, focusing on psychosocial management. The implications for healthcare and social care are discussed and recommendations for future studies are presented.

Definitions of Care
[...]

There are clear sex preferences in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) domains (Lippa, 2010), and we expect the same sex preferences to underlie the formal care domains. Although sex ratio in STEM occupations has become less unbalanced in recent years, the sex differences remain in social disciplines such as Health and Welfare which has a greater proportion of female Ph.D. graduates (59%), contrasting with engineering, manufacturing, and construction (28%) (European Commission, 2016). Sex differences are also notable within formal care occupations. Globally, females outnumber males overwhelmingly and this sex difference is consistent across all ages, where the bulk of the female workers occupy people oriented professions such as nurses and social workers (Gupta et al., 2003; Rocheleau, 2017; Ministry of Manpower, 2018). The Luxemburg Income Study conducted with eighteen participating countries in Europe, America, Asia, and Oceania showed that across countries, at least 62–85% of health workers are females (Gupta et al., 2003). Specifically, a greater proportion of females worked in the nursing and midwifery specializations compared to physicians. In the following sections, we use EP theoretical frameworks to explicate the evolutionary roots that underlie these patterns.


Human Resource
Given that sex egalitarian countries tend to have the greatest sex differences in personality and occupational choices (Charles and Bradley, 2009; Lippa, 2010), sex specific policies such as increasing vacancies for the sex with lower hire proportion may not be effective. For instance, although demand for male-dominated blue-collar professions (e.g., manufacturing, mechanics) is shrinking while demand for female-dominated healthcare industry is growing, the resultant excess in male population in the work force did not lead to a corresponding increase in male employment in “pink-collar” formal care professions such as nursing or healthcare aides (Dill, 2017). Similarly, an overemphasis on sex-ratio reversal policies undermines the stronger effect of innate preferences. In particular, policies skewed toward promoting atypical sex employment may not ultimately lead to balanced sex employment and may be counterproductive. For instance, medical enrolment in favor of female applicants may place some eligible male applicants at a disadvantage (McKinstry, 2008). Furthermore, even though female students have a slight advantage in many STEM subjects compared to male students, female students nevertheless tend to pursue non-STEM education (Stoet and Geary, 2018).

Sex-role theorists argue that female physicians encounter greater occupational barriers because of the expectation that females are homemakers (Buddeberg-Fischer et al., 2010). Our present analysis suggests that instead, females have a natural inclination to provide care to their families. This understanding will change how we encourage females to remain as physicians. Particularly, females tend to trade-off their career development particularly when they have children so that they can devote more time for the family and more broadly, females also divert more resources toward the community, friends, and less on their careers (Ferriman et al., 2009). Thus, understanding innate preferences for sex differences underlying the effect of family demands and parenthood on career choices for medicine can provide potential solutions to facilitate the enrolment and maintenance of female physicians (Buddeberg-Fischer et al., 2010; Riska, 2011). On the other hand, males tend to undertake jobs that emphasize strong leadership and offer high extrinsic rewards such as higher income and prestige as indicative of one’s social status (Ku, 2011). Policies aimed to increase hiring of males in occupations such as nursing and social work will be more effective if is it coupled with changing societal perceptions of such professions. Awareness about the barriers toward females is nonetheless important, yet ignoring potential EP driven factors that would attract females and males into professions conventionally occupied by the opposite sex would be ineffective.

Conclusion
Today, psychologists understand that pure social constructivist views are insufficient in explaining sex differences and in some instances lead to incorrect conclusions. Furthermore, evidence is clear that innate tendencies exert considerable cognitive and behavioral outcomes. Thus, giving equal weighs to EP and sociocultural theories clarifies the issues related to sex differences in formal care by enabling the understanding of sex differences as emergent phenomena of the interaction between evolved tendencies and sociocultural pressures. Ultimately, this method of examination will generate more holistic views of sex differences in formal care occupations (see Table 1 for other examples and predictions using the EP analytic approach). We propose that key decision makers within the healthcare and social care sectors work with instead of against sex differences elucidated herein and researchers to be sensitive to innate sex preferences in developing research programs. Ultimately, understanding and accepting sex differences elucidated by EP theories not only enhances our knowledge, it sheds light on how problems and research can be fine-tuned based on more precise and nuanced insights additionally informed by sociocultural theories.