Income inequality is indeed strongly & consistently related to social ills, but so is economic prosperity; & rising prosperity effectively reduces the amount of social ills, at least in Europe

Social Ills in Rich Countries: New Evidence on Levels, Causes, and Mediators. Jan Delhey, Leonie C. Steckermeier. Social Indicators Research, December 21 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-019-02244-3

Abstract: The income inequality hypothesis claims that in rich societies inequality causes a range of health and social problems (henceforth: social ills), e.g. because economic inequality induces feelings of status anxiety and corrodes social cohesion. This paper provides an encompassing test of the income inequality hypothesis by exploring levels and breeding conditions of social ills in 40 affluent countries worldwide, as well as pathways for a subsample of wealthy European countries. Our aggregate-level research is based on a revised and updated Index of Social Ills inspired by Wilkinson and Pickett’s book The Spirit Level, which we compile for both more countries (40) and more years (2000–2015) and combine with survey information about experienced quality-of-life as potential mediators. We get three major results: First, cross-sectionally income inequality is indeed strongly and consistently related to social ills, but so is economic prosperity. Second, while longitudinally changes in inequality do not result in changing levels of social ills, rising prosperity effectively reduces the amount of social ills, at least in Europe. Finally, whereas the cross-sectional analysis indicates that aspects of social cohesion most consistently mediate between economic conditions and social ills, the longitudinal mediation analyses could not ultimately clarify through which pathway rising prosperity reduces social ills. Overall we conclude that the income inequality hypothesis is, at best, too narrow to fully understand health and social problems in rich countries.

Keywords: Prosperity Income inequality hypothesis Social ills Health Social cohesion Spirit level theory Status anxiety Two-way fixed effects

6 Discussion and Conclusion

By examining the impact of economic conditions on a broad range of social ills for 40 rich countries for the period 2000–2015, this study represents the most up-to-date and comprehensive examination of the famous inequality hypothesis. To our knowledge, this is also the first aggregate-level study in which a larger number of potential mediators between economic conditions and social ills has been put to an empirical test. Descriptively, while the ranking of countries according to their number of social ills largely matches that presented in The Spirit Level, our finding that social ills have decreased over time in all but two countries is a genuinely new finding that contradicts the widely accepted diagnose of social malaise in the developed world (Eckersley 2012; Elchardus and De Keere 2013). While some of our results provide partial support for the inequality hypothesis, others contradict it. We begin our discussion with the supporting evidence, which stems exclusively from the cross-sectional analysis.

The first confirmatory finding is that cross-sectionally the scale of income inequality is positively associated—year by year—with social ills, an association that holds when economic prosperity is considered at the same time (confirming H1). This association is found in our two sets of rich countries, the global (full) sample, which is culturally more diverse, and the subset of European countries (confirming H3). There thus seems to be no need to confine the inequality hypothesis to the Western world. In light of the criticism that Wilkinson and Pickett especially received for disregarding cultural peculiarities (Saunders and Evans 2010; Snowdon 2010), this is a most relevant finding.

A second and at least partly theory-confirming finding concerns potential mediators. Our cross-sectional results lend some support, first of all, to the idea that status anxiety mediates between economic conditions and social ills. Two qualifications, however, are essential. While average levels of status anxiety are systematically higher in less affluent countries, they are not higher in more unequal ones, as The Spirit Level presumes. Secondly, our cross-sectional finding that the characteristics of social cohesion perform better as mediators suggests that it is the erosion of social life more generally which evokes health and social problems, not status anxiety specifically. Interestingly, this conclusion resonates well with the thrust of Wilkinson’s (1996, 1999) older works.

As regards the findings that challenge the inequality hypothesis and the spirit level theory, most importantly, changing income inequality does not cause changes in the number of social ills (disconfirming H4). Our study thus joins those that find a link between inequality and social ills cross-sectionally, but not longitudinally (e.g. Beckfield 2004; Leigh and Jencks 2007; Avendano 2012; Hu et al. 2015). Our results further indicate that economic prosperity is related to lower social ills—cross-sectionally in both subsets of rich nations, and longitudinally in Europe, in both cases while simultaneously considering the income distribution. This questions the exclusive focus on inequality that many scholars advocate. The positive impact of prosperity on societies is already observable at the beginning of the 2000s according to our data; and so it was not a new phenomenon that appeared after The Spirit Level was published. Seen in conjunction with the mounting evidence that individual quality of life is also better in richer countries (e.g., Hagerty and Veenhoven 2003; Deaton 2008; Delhey and Steckermeier 2016), it appears premature to declare economic resources ineffective for making lives and societies better, and even more so, as in the study at hand increases in economic prosperity over time decrease social ills, at least in Europe. In our data, the causal effect on social ills is actually exerted by economic prosperity, not by changes in the income distribution. Still, we do not want to gloss over the finding that in the European sub-sample the cross-sectional association between economic prosperity and social ills became weaker in later years of the period studied. This might mean that some rich societies are experiencing diminishing returns from economic resources, but still have positive returns—in particular in Europe—so “wealthier is healthier” (Biggs et al. 2010) is still a valid slogan for contemporary rich societies.

The mediation analysis could only be performed for Europe. Here, a genuinely new finding is that the same mechanisms that mediate in cross-sectional analysis between inequality and social ills also mediate between economic prosperity and social ills, namely satisfaction with social life and experienced social exclusion (largely in support of the cross-sectional part of H6); and further, that the mechanism prominently proposed by the spirit level theory—feelings of inferiority—only mediates the attenuating effect of economic prosperity. This suggests that prosperity exerts its positive effect on social ills by improving the social climate within societies (cf. Welzel 2013; Delhey and Dragolov 2016). Nevertheless, the longitudinal mediation analysis could not ultimately clarify the experienced quality-of-life mechanism through which economic prosperity has an effect on social ills. Future research, ideally based on larger case numbers, might yield more conclusive results on this issue.

Our results for economic prosperity raise the important question of why we unearthed a robust prosperity-social ills nexus when Wilkinson and Pickett did not. Re-running our analysis for the set of 21 countries from The Spirit Level, we find two explanations: country selection and methods. Indeed, there is no significant correlation between economic prosperity and our ISI index for the 21 countries in any of the years 2000–2015. In other words, it is Wilkinson and Pickett’s—disputable—compilation of countries which produces a non-correlation. Furthermore, when estimating pooled OLS regressions of ISI on inequality and prosperity for their 21 countries over the full period of 16 years, there is a robust social ills attenuating effect of prosperity, entirely in line with our results, but contrary to Wilkinson and Pickett. This demonstrates how unadvisable it is to draw conclusions based on zero-order correlations alone.

A limitation of our study is that the mediation analysis could only be performed for Europe. European societies are in the vanguard of value change toward self-expression values (Inglehart and Welzel 2005; Welzel 2013). Provided this peculiarity rubs off on the social production functions of these societies, we cannot rule out that the focus on Europe in the mediation analysis overemphasizes the role of social mediators and underemphasizes the role of material ones, such as economic strain. Moreover, a multi-level framework could be applied to the best-performing mechanisms from our analysis to determine whether they imply contextual effects of inequality and prosperity, or rather composition effects (for status anxiety, see, for example, Whelan and Layte 2014). Further research is also needed to explore potential cultural conditions that breed or prevent social ills. Although we have established that the impact of income inequality is not weaker in the culturally diverse global sample, it is still conceivable that cultural forces play their part in the generation of health and social problems.

In conclusion, while from a cross-sectional perspective the inequality hypothesis seems accurate but one-sided, in a longitudinal perspective it appears to be wrong. This news might be hard to digest for those who assume that creating a ‘better’ society is, definitely and primarily, a matter of income redistribution. For policymakers, our study instead suggests that economic prosperity should be prioritized over income redistribution as an instrument to achieving a less problem-ridden society. Naturally, tackling inequalities might still be of paramount importance for achieving other valuable goals, such as to enhance social justice.

Lower drinking frequencies among asexual individuals

Understanding Alcohol and Tobacco Consumption in Asexual Samples: A Mixed-Methods Approach. Caroline Bauer, Sasha L. Kaye, Lori A. Brotto. Archives of Sexual Behavior, December 20 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-019-01570-4

Abstract: Existing research suggests significant differences in alcohol and tobacco consumption trends according to one’s sexual orientation. However, asexual people have not yet been included in these comparisons. In this mixed-methods, two-part study, we sought to compare group differences in alcohol and tobacco consumption among sexual orientations, focusing on asexual people, sexual people, and those in the “gray” area between asexual and sexual (i.e., “gray-asexual”). Data for Study 1 came from four British studies: National Surveys of Sexual Attitude and Lifestyles I, II, and III in 1990, 2000, and 2010 (NATSAL I, II, III) and Towards Better Sexual Health (TBSH) in 2000. Sample sizes for each study by gender are: NATSAL I—M: 1923 F: 3511; NATSAL II—M: 4604 F: 6031; NATSAL III—M: 6122 F: 7966; TBSH—M: 347 F: 552. Notably, asexual and gray-asexual respondents were found to consume significantly less alcohol and were more likely to abstain from drinking alcohol altogether, compared to allosexual respondents. Differences in tobacco consumption were only statistically significant for asexual respondents in two of three studies that included tobacco consumption. Each of the four studies also found that asexual and gray-asexual respondents were more likely to be non-drinkers (40.0–77.8%, asexual and 28.1–50.1% gray-asexual, non-drinkers, respectively) than allosexual respondents (10.2–27.2%, non-drinkers). Interviews conducted in Study 2 identified somatic, social, and psychological experiences and motivations that may shed light on the reasons for lower drinking frequencies among asexual individuals. Variability in alcohol consumption levels among asexual, lesbian, gay, and bisexual respondents, and the general population raises new questions about the motivations for why people consume alcohol.

Keywords: Asexuality Alcohol Tobacco LGBT Gray-asexuality Sexual attraction

Sweden: Approx 75pct of the top 1 men have a partner with income below the 90th percentile; for top 1 women, three-quarters of them have a partner with income above the 90th percentile, and about 30% have a partner who is also in the top 1pct

Women in top incomes – Evidence from Sweden 1971–2017. Anne Boschini, Kristin Gunnarsson, Jesper Roine. Journal of Public Economics, Volume 181, January 2020, 104115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104115

Highlights
• Women have increased their presence in the top of the total income distribution.
• Women are still a minority (and more so higher up in the distribution).
• Top women have gained in labour incomes, while top men have gained in capital.
• Top men and women have converged in a number of dimensions.
• Family circumstances remain different for top men and women.

Abstract: Using yearly register data on the full population of Sweden we study gender differences in top incomes, down to the top 0.01 percentile group, over the period 1971–2017. We find that, while women are still a minority of the top decile, and typically make up a smaller share the higher up in the distribution we move, their presence has steadily increased in all top groups over the past half-century. At the beginning of the period, top income women relied more on capital incomes, but the rise in the share of top women is not due to the growing importance of capital. Instead, women have increased their presence in the top by gains in the top of labour incomes, while top income men have captured most of the growth in capital incomes. Studying gender differences in observable characteristics we find small gender differences in some respects, convergence in others, but also some important remaining differences. Overall, our results suggest that many findings in the top income literature have a clear gender component and that understanding gender equality in the top of the distribution requires studying not only earnings and labour market outcomes but also incomes from other sources, as well as family circumstances.

Keywords: Income inequalityWealth inequalityIncome distributionGender inequalityTop incomesCapital incomesRealized capital gains


7. Concluding discussion

This paper arrives at several conclusions about the evolution of women in the top of the income distribution in Sweden over the past fifty years. First, and most obviously, it shows that the presence of women in top incomes has increased significantly. There are still fewer women than men in top groups, and typically fewer the higher up we move in the distribution, but there has been a relatively steady rise over the whole period; from 12 to just below 30% in the top decile, from around 6 to 19% in the top 1 group, from 5 to 15 in the top 0.1 percentile group.

Even when focusing on the top 1 group (where capital incomes become important), this change has overwhelmingly been driven by women increasing their share of total labour income, while, on average, losing shares in the capital income distribution. This highlights the importance of studying the joint distribution of labour and capital to understand the changes in total income, especially in the very top.

When looking at the characteristics of top income women compared to men, they are not very different in terms of age and education (though women are, on average, more educated), and both groups become more and more similar over time. In terms of marital status, however, differences are large, especially at the beginning of the period. Around 1970 more than 90% of top 1 men were married, while this was the case for less than 50% of top 1 women. At that time more than 20% of women were widows (in the top 0.1 group almost 40%), while the share of widowers in the top 1 was close to zero. Over time the share of married men has gone down, the share of married women has increased, and today the marital status of top men and women are much more similar.

The largest remaining difference, however, seems to be in terms of “partner type”, especially concerning partner income. While the education levels of the top earners' partners, men and women alike, are similar – around 65% have tertiary education, 30% have secondary education, and only 5% have primary education – approximately three quarters of the top 1 men have a partner with income below the 90th percentile. For top 1 women, the opposite is true, three-quarters of them have a partner with income above the 90th percentile, and about 30% have a partner who is also in the top 1.

Trying to take all of these developments together, gives a picture of top income men and women being much more different in the 1970s than today. The typical top 1 woman had much higher capital incomes, and also owned more wealth in relation to the average top 1 man, but in return, she had significantly lower labour income. Over time capital has become more important in total incomes in general and also for top income men. For top income women, however, capital incomes have become relatively less important, both in relation to the population average and especially to the average top income man. In short, concerning income composition and wealth, top income men and women have become increasingly similar.

Why have women gained ground in terms of labour income? The short answer to the first part of this question is simply that more women have gradually risen to higher and higher-paying jobs. Exactly how this has happened requires further detailed study, but it seems to happen with a lag to women's education levels, since already well before the 1990s, when the increase really takes off, more women than men were graduating from Swedish universities. Also, one should recall that education, while certainly being important, is not everything when it comes to explaining top incomes. More than a third of top 1 earners, and about half of the top 10 earners do not have a tertiary education still today. The increasing share of women executives and senior managers, both in the private and public sector, is notable in the last decade or two. Moreover, tireless pro-active policy for gender equality in wages since the 1970s might finally have been fruitful. Despite these positive trends and also more men taking out parental leave after the introduction of so called “daddy quotas” (especially in high-educated high-income couples) and more women CEOs in listed companies than ever, there is also less positive evidence of both increasing gender wage gaps among executive managers after having their first child (see Keloharju et al., 2019, and more generally Kleven et al., 2019) and an increase in the divorce rate of particularly successful women managers and politicians (see Folke and Rickne, 2019). These findings are undoubtedly related to the partner choices of top men and top women. While the partners of top men and top women are increasingly similar in many dimensions, the large majority of top men's partners are still not pursuing a career of their own, as opposed to the majority of top women's partners.

Why have top income women gained less than top income men from the increased role of capital in the top? Again, answering the question in detail requires further study and is likely a complex web of connected developments. But our results give some important clues. First, as far as we can tell using tax data, the wealth difference between the average top income women and man has been shrinking over time. In 2007 – the last year when wealth was taxed – top income women had on average 1.5–2 times more wealth than the average corresponding man, down from more than 3 in the 1970s. At the same time, seen over the whole period, women have not lost ground in the top of the wealth distribution. The number of women in the top 1 of the wealth distribution has been between 30 and 40% over the whole period. This suggests that as the share of women has increased in the top, the composition of the average type of women has shifted in the direction of one with more labour income and less wealth. Furthermore, there are gender differences beyond wealth levels. In particular, our analysis of realized capital gains shows that top men, much more than top women, top-up their incomes with capital gains, and also that these are mainly based on financial assets. This suggests that top income men have more financial wealth than top income women (in line with what numerous government commissions and other studies find for gender differences in wealth holdings in general). These assets generate, not only an income when sold but also a flow of income in the form of dividends, which in turn have grown in importance in relation to other types of income. If top men have more financial assets than top income women, this has a relatively larger impact on their income growth. Finally, while capital incomes, in general, were adversely treated relative to labour before the great tax reform in 1991, the situation today is reversed. This has led to several different ways in which one can suspect that activities that, in a different tax system, would be taxed as labour are now categorized as capital. However, in this respect incentives are similar for men and women alike and to the extent that men would profit more than women from this requires further study.

Overall, the results in this paper suggest that to understand the gender dynamics of top incomes, we need to analyse the joint evolution of both labour and capital incomes, as well as family circumstances.

Liberals exhibit zero-sum thinking when issues are framed in terms of upholding current social structures, conservatives when they are framed in terms of changing the status quo

The politics of zero-sum thinking: The relationship between political ideology and the belief that life is a zero-sum game. Shai Davidai, Martino Ongis. Science Advances Dec 18 2019, Vol. 5, no. 12, eaay3761. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay3761

Abstract: The tendency to see life as zero-sum exacerbates political conflicts. Six studies (N = 3223) examine the relationship between political ideology and zero-sum thinking: the belief that one party’s gains can only be obtained at the expense of another party’s losses. We find that both liberals and conservatives view life as zero-sum when it benefits them to do so. Whereas conservatives exhibit zero-sum thinking when the status quo is challenged, liberals do so when the status quo is being upheld. Consequently, conservatives view social inequalities—where the status quo is frequently challenged—as zero-sum, but liberals view economic inequalities—where the status quo has remained relatively unchallenged in past decades—as such. Overall, these findings suggest potentially important ideological differences in perceptions of conflict—differences that are likely to have implications for understanding political divides in the United States and the difficulty of reaching bipartisan legislation.


DISCUSSION

In six studies, we found that conservatives are more prone than liberals to view challenges to the status quo as zero-sum but that the opposite is true when the status quo is preserved. In addition, we found that the same issue can elicit zero-sum thinking among liberals and conservatives, depending on whether it is framed in terms of maintaining or challenging the status quo. Whereas liberals exhibit zero-sum thinking when issues are framed in terms of upholding current social structures, conservatives exhibit zero-sum thinking when they are framed in terms of changing the status quo.

These findings highlight the role of ideology in shaping people’s views of life as zero-sum. Rather than being a stable mindset associated with a specific ideology or worldview (14), we found that zero-sum thinking is exhibited across the political spectrum. When thinking about threats to the status quo, conservatives are susceptible to the same reasoning patterns for which they criticize liberals when the status quo is maintained, and vice-versa. As a result, political polarization can stem from liberals’ and conservatives’ diverging assumptions about interest incompatibility and the zero-sum nature of social and economic relationships.

This suggests that how an issue is talked about can predictably influence whether it would elicit zero-sum thinking. As shown in study 4, emphasizing how the distribution of wealth preserves the status quo decreases zero-sum thinking among conservatives while increasing such thinking among liberals. In contrast, emphasizing how the accumulation of wealth can challenge existing social structures achieves the opposite result. Similarly, studies 5A and 5B show that framing an issue in terms of challenges to the status quo increases zero-sum thinking among conservatives, whereas framing an issue in terms of maintaining existing social structures increases such thinking among liberals. Since many policies preserve some aspects of the status quo while challenging other aspects of it, politicians and policy-makers can (for better or for worse) strategically frame contentious policies in a manner that either increases or decreases zero-sum thinking among their constituents. For instance, many policies may be more likely to attain bipartisan support if framed in a manner that emphasizes the status quo when presented to conservative voters but in a manner that emphasizes the challenges to the status quo when presented to more liberal-leaning voters. Similarly, emphasizing how a proposed policy is not zero-sum (e.g., emphasizing how similar policies in the past had no effect on the majority group or may have even benefitted it) may help increase support for it.

This suggests that people may be motivated to view life as zero-sum both to preserve the integrity of their own beliefs and to convince others about them. By emphasizing how maintaining (or challenging) the status quo hurts many more people than one’s opponents allow, people may become more confident in their own views and may be better situated to convince others of their position. Of course, it is possible that some people may adopt zero-sum rhetoric as a tool to convince others without genuinely accepting it as true. Although the current research focused on examining how ideological motivations relate to zero-sum thinking in general, it did not distinguish between when it is used as a way for bolstering one’s own convictions versus as a tool for convincing others. Future research could examine whether people adopt zero-sum thinking as mere rhetoric without truly believing in it and the extent to which it is effective to do so.

It is important to note that despite the significant relationship between zero-sum thinking and people’s political leanings, the tendency to view life as zero-sum involves beliefs that go beyond people’s political ideology. Although we found a significant and systemic relationship between political ideology and zero-sum thinking, there was substantial variance among both conservatives and liberals in their tendency to view life as zero-sum. Whereas the majority (73.4%) of liberal participants exhibited zero-sum thinking consistent with their ideological stance (i.e., viewing the current status quo as zero-sum but challenges to the status quo as not zero-sum), a substantial minority of liberals (26.4%) did not do so. Similarly, whereas most conservative participants (56.9%) exhibited “ideologically consistent” zero-sum thinking patterns (i.e., viewing challenges to the status quo as zero-sum but the existing status quo as not zero-sum), many conservatives (43.1%) did not do so (see fig. S1 and table S2).

Zero-sum thinking also has a unique effect in its ability to predict people’s attitudes about important societal issues above and beyond their political ideology. In two additional studies (studies S1 and S2), we examined the extent to which zero-sum thinking predicts attitudes about economic inequality and anti-immigration policies. In the first study, we measured, in a counterbalanced order, participants’ tendency to view wealth as a zero-sum resource (14) and their attitudes regarding inequality using the Support for Economic Inequality Scale (32). As predicted, we found that zero-sum thinking was negatively related to the extent to which participants viewed economic inequality favorably [r(100) = −0.659, P < 0.0001]. The more participants believed that wealth was a zero-sum resource, the more they opposed inequality. A multiple regression analysis predicting attitudes toward inequality from political ideology and the tendency to view wealth as zero-sum found that zero-sum thinking remained a significant predictor of support for inequality beyond participants’ ideology [βzero-sum thinking = −0.531, t(98) = −6.69, P < 0.0001; βideology = 0.269, t(98) = 4.54, P < 0.0001]. Moreover, including zero-sum thinking as a predictor in this model increased the explained variance in attitudes from R2 = 32% to R2 = 53%.

We replicated this finding in a second study, where we examined the relationship between zero-sum thinking and attitudes toward anti-immigration policies (study S2). In this study, we measured, in a counterbalanced order, participants’ tendency to view immigration as zero-sum, their support for various anti-immigration policies (e.g., building a wall in the U.S.-Mexico border, indefinitely detaining illegal immigrants until deportation), their prejudice against Mexican immigrants, and their tendency to blatantly dehumanize immigrants as savage, aggressive, and lacking basic morals. As expected, we found that zero-sum thinking significantly predicted support for tough anti-immigration policies [r(102) = 0.594, P < 0.0001]. The more participants viewed immigration as zero-sum, the more they supported taking a tough stance against immigration. We found that viewing immigration as zero-sum uniquely predicted support for anti-immigration policies [β = 0.551, t(98) = 6.24, P < 0.0001] above and beyond political ideology [β = 0.556, t(100) = 7.95, P < 0.0001], and including zero-sum thinking in the model increased the explained variance in attitudes from R2 = 45% to R2 = 60%. Furthermore, zero-sum thinking remained a significant predictor of support for anti-immigration policies [β = 0.333, t(98) = 3.85, P = 0.0002] even when we included in the model participants’ prejudice against Mexican immigrants [β = 0.012, t(98) = 2.19, P = 0.031] and their tendency to blatantly dehumanize them [β = 0.816, t(98) = 6.26, P < 0.0001]. Thus, despite the significant relationship between zero-sum thinking and political ideology, viewing life as zero-sum uniquely predicts attitudes about important social issues beyond people’s political leanings. Exploring when and why people view life as zero-sum can enrich our understanding of their attitudes beyond merely knowing their political ideology.

Future research would benefit from examining additional factors that, together with ideology, are related to zero-sum thinking. First, people may be more prone to view life as zero-sum after experiencing personal hardships. For example, it is possible that white applicants who fail to get into college are more likely to view racial relations as zero-sum than admitted applicants, that male candidates who do not get hired are more likely to view gender relations as zero-sum than hired candidates, that unemployed Americans are more likely to believe that immigrants take jobs away from U.S. citizens than employed Americans, and so forth. More generally, people may be especially prone to zero-sum thinking when comparing themselves to better-off others, which can help explain why upward comparisons exacerbate negative experiences (33–35). If people view their own (worse off) outcomes as having been caused by others’ better outcomes, they can then blame others for their own circumstances and resent their good fortune.

Cultural differences may also influence zero-sum thinking. The relationship between ideology and zero-sum thinking about the distribution of wealth varies considerably between countries. Whereas conservatism is negatively related to zero-sum thinking in most of the countries included in the World Values Survey (27), the strength and significance of this relationship varies substantially. Of the 55 countries in which respondents indicated whether they viewed the distribution of wealth as zero-sum, the relationship between ideology and zero-sum thinking was significantly or marginally negative in 31 countries, insignificantly negative (P > 0.10) in 16 countries, insignificantly positive in 7 countries, and significantly positive in only 1 country (Fig. 5). Although ideology is clearly related to zero-sum thinking, cultural factors surely influence the extent to which people see life as zero-sum.

[Fig. 5 The relationship between political ideology and zero-sum thinking about the distribution of wealth across 55 countries in the sixth wave of the World Value Survey.]

The current research offers insight into how ideology is related to people’s interpretation of the world and may further our understanding of partisan divides in the United States. Although liberals and conservatives often agree on many economic and social goals, they tend to disagree on how to best achieve them. For example, people across the political spectrum share similar views regarding what an ideal society would look like in terms of economic inequality and social mobility (36, 37) but disagree on how to create such a society. Although these partisan differences typically stem from beliefs about who stands to win or lose from any given policy, our findings suggest that these beliefs are unexpectedly malleable. Paying closer attention to how we discuss politically divisive issues can be the first step in bridging this partisan divide.

Movie theater context enhances the valuation and aesthetic experience of watching films, compared to watching at home

Fröber, K., & Thomaschke, R. (2019). In the dark cube: Movie theater context enhances the valuation and aesthetic experience of watching films. Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts, Dec 2019, https://doi.org/10.1037/aca0000295

Abstract: There is a worldwide increase in feature film releases each year. While a theatrical release is still the primary release form, more and more films are watched via online streaming in home cinemas. Watching films at home is unquestionably high in convenience, but an understudied question is, how this shift in context—from the movie theater to the home cinema—affects the cinematic experience while watching a feature film. To test this, aesthetic emotions and the overall judgment of the cinematic experience were compared between watching a film in a movie theater or home cinema. In line with cognitive models of art appreciation, it was found that a movie theater context leads to a stronger emotional experience and a more favorable judgment. Only boredom was felt stronger in the home cinema. This movie theater effect persisted during a second viewing, regardless of context. These results have theoretical and practical implications for empirical aesthetics, movie fans, and the movie industry.

There is a double standard for making forecasts about self vs others: Justice is a more fundamental motive in forecasts about others, & wishful thinking a more fundamental motive in forecasts about the self

Mata, A., & Simão, C. (2019). Karmic forecasts: The role of justice in forecasts about self and others. Motivation Science, Dec 1019. https://doi.org/10.1037/mot0000162

Abstract: Three studies show that people make karmic forecasts, expecting good things to come to those who perform good deeds, and predicting bad outcomes for wrongdoers. However, these justice-based forecasts only apply to others; when making forecasts about themselves, people tend to make optimistic predictions, regardless of whether they consider good or bad things that they did. This pattern emerged for both forecasts about the likelihood of experiencing positive versus negative events, as well as affective forecasts about how people will feel upon experiencing such events. Thus, there is a double standard for making forecasts about self versus others, with justice being a more fundamental motive in forecasts about others, and wishful thinking being a more fundamental motive in forecasts about the self.

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From a previous publication... Mata, A., Simão, C., Farias, A. R., & Steimer, A. (2018, July 12). Forecasting the Duration of Emotions: A Motivational Account and Self-Other Differences. Emotion, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/emo0000455

Abstract: This research investigates the forecasts that people make about the duration of positive versus negative emotions, and tests whether these forecasts differ for self versus for others. Consistent with a motivated thinking framework, six studies show that people make optimistic, asymmetric forecasts that positive emotions will last longer than negative ones. However, for other people, wishful thinking is absent, and therefore people make less optimistic, more symmetric forecasts. Potential implications of these motivated forecasts and self–other differences are discussed.

General Discussion

Six studies provided systematic evidence for the influence of
wishful thinking on the estimated duration of emotions. In Studies
1 through 3, desirable emotions triggered by positive events were
expected to last longer than undesirable emotions triggered by
negative events, but this difference only held for the self, not for
other people. Additionally, Study 2 showed that desirability mediated the effect of event valence on expected emotional duration
only for the self, not for other people. Studies 4 through 5 directly
tested our motivational account: Study 4 revealed that manipulating the desirability of certain emotions (happiness depicted as less
desirable, and sadness as more desirable) influenced the forecasted
duration of those emotions. In Study 5 the same positive–negative
asymmetry that was found for the self in Studies 1 through 4 was
also observed for another person that was described as likable, but
not when the other person was described in a negative manner.
And Study 6 replicated the pattern of more optimistic forecasts
about the self versus about others, for a wide variety of emotions,
and importantly, both for positive and negative emotions: To the
extent that an emotion is desirable, be it positive or negative in
valence, people expect it to last longer for themselves than for
others. These results suggest that desirability is one of the factors
driving the forecasts that people make about how long they will
experience certain emotions: People expect themselves (or others)
to feel certain emotions for a longer while to the extent that that is
desirable. This research extends the body of findings in the optimism literature by showing that people not only expect to experience more positive events than negative ones, but they also
expect the positive emotions produced by the former to last longer
than the negative emotions resulting from the latter.

Differences From Previous Research

The vast majority of research on affective forecasting has focused on demonstrating people’s inability to accurately predict
future emotional reactions at a certain point of time in the future:
People overestimate their future emotional reactions to both positive and negative events, as compared with how they actually feel
when the time comes. In the present studies, we did not compare
forecasts against experience, but rather assessed in a direct way
estimates of emotion duration. This methodology revealed two
novel findings: first, people expect positive emotions to last longer
than negative ones, and second, this asymmetric pattern only holds
for themselves, not others.
At first, it might appear that our results contradict previous
findings in this field (see Wilson & Gilbert, 2003, for a review).
Indeed, previous studies typically show that the overestimation of
experienced affect when compared with forecasts is greater for
negative versus positive emotions, whereas the present studies
show that people forecast a longer duration for positive versus
negative emotions. This apparent discrepancy can be resolved if
we consider (1) differences in method and (2) differences in the
time course of positive versus negative emotions.
First, differences in method: Typical studies of affective forecasting compare the intensity (and not the duration) of forecasted
(T1) versus experienced (T2) emotions. The present studies, on the
other hand, compared forecasts (T1) about the duration of positive
versus negative emotions (as well as the critical social comparison
dimension: self vs. others). Thus, the present research cannot and
does not make claims about the accuracy of predictions, as it
neither tests nor shows whether there is overestimation about
positive versus negative emotions, but simply demonstrates that
positive emotions are estimated to last longer than negative ones.
There is a difference in the measures and contrasts that are relevant
to test different hypotheses: Research examining the impact bias is
concerned with comparing forecasts of intensity against intensity
of experience, whereas the present research is concerned with
testing a desirability bias in forecasts about the duration of positive
versus negative emotions.
More importantly, research on emotions and how they develop
across time reveals a crucial clue that reconciles our findings with
those of previous studies: People might predict a longer duration
for positive versus negative events (as was consistently observed
in the present studies), and yet overestimate the impact of negative
events to a greater extent, provided that negative emotions fade
more quickly than positive ones. Indeed, there is a great deal of
evidence suggesting that negative emotions fade more quickly than
positive ones (Ritchie, Skowronski, Hartnett, Wells, & Walker,
2009; Ritchie et al., 2006; Skowronski, Gibbons, Vogl, & Walker,
2004; Walker, Skowronski, Gibbons, Vogl, & Ritchie, 2009;
Walker, Skowronski, Gibbons, Vogl, & Thompson, 2003; Walker,
Skowronski, & Thompson, 2003; Walker, Vogl, & Thompson,
1997). This is known as the fading affect bias (Walker et al.,
2003), and it is explained by strategic memory rehearsal. For
instance, Walker et al. (2009) document different types of memory
rehearsal that prevent emotions from fading, such as “rehearsal for
maintaining memory for events” or “rehearsal for the purpose of
re-experiencing the emotion associated with the event”, and they
find that (1) memory rehearsal is more frequent for positive events
than for negative ones and (2) events that are frequently rehearsed
are associated with less fading of emotions. Thus, to the extent that
positive emotions are kept alive for longer, forecasts that such
emotions will last long might not be off target. On the other hand,
to the extent that negative emotions fade more quickly (for instance via coping mechanisms such as reappraisal or memory
suppression), people might err by a greater margin in their forecasts, such that they predict that they will have a certain duration
(though shorter than positive emotions—the optimistic bias that
we found), but fail to take into account the immune system
(immune neglect; Gilbert et al., 1998) and therefore fail to see how
they will last for much shorter than they predicted.
For instance, forecasters might predict that the duration of
positive emotions is x times longer than that of negative ones, but
to the extent that the difference in decay for negative versus positive
emotions is larger than x, we might observe both an optimistic bias in
predictions (predictions at T1: positive negative) and a greater
impact bias for negative versus positive emotions (comparing
predictions at T1 to experiences at T2). Thus, the self-protective
and enhancing nature of memory helps to both legitimize the
asymmetry that we found (i.e., forecasters might be accurate in
predicting that positive emotions last longer than negative ones)
and reconcile it with the typical findings in affective forecasting
research: For positive emotions, people actively work to keep them
alive, whereas for negative emotions they work at suppressing
them, and so it will be easier to overestimate the duration/impact
of negative emotions.
In addition to the relevance of studying forecasts about emotion
duration, we also believe that the asymmetry in affective forecasting that we find for self versus for others might be important in
explaining well-documented effects, such as the difference in
choice (for self) versus advice (for others), as we explain in the
following text.
Moreover, this research goes beyond the valence dimension that
previous research has focused on, by showing that regardless of
whether certain emotions are positive or negative, to the extent that
it is desirable to experience them in a certain situation, forecasters
predict that they will feel such emotions for a long time (even
clearly negative-valenced emotions such as shame, envy or disgust; Study 6). In this sense, these results do not allow for a simple
portrayal of our findings as merely showing that people make
optimistic predictions. In Study 6, it is not easy to define optimism.
What is more optimistic: to expect a positive emotion that is
nevertheless undesirable (or at least socially proscribed), or to
expect a desirable emotion that is nevertheless negative and upsetting? Indeed, it has recently been suggested that:

biases in emotion attribution might not always reflect a desire to view one’s self as experiencing more positively valenced emotions, but should flexibly tune individuals towards the belief that they experience more desirable emotions, irrespective of valence. This is also a natural prediction of theories of motivated cognition (e.g., Hughes & Zaki, 2015). Future work should test this prediction by varying the goal consistency of emotions across a variety of contexts. (Ong, Goodman, & Zaki, 2018, p. 124)

Study 6 offers precisely this test.

Why the colonial-sounding framework, right down to the old British laws? The justice system is more important than the tax breaks: a functional code of laws is a leading indicator of economic success

The Hottest New Thing in Seasteading Is Land. Lizette Chapman. December 20, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/silicon-valley-seasteaders-go-looking-for-low-tax-sites-on-land
Patri Friedman started Pronomos Capital, with more money from Peter Thiel, to establish mini-city-states.


Patri Friedman is sick of the jokes about floating tax havens. About a decade ago, the former Google software engineer (and grandson of Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman) co-founded the Seasteading Institute, a nonprofit with the stated aim of developing a model for self-governing offshore communities. The idea was to allow people to set up more laissez-faire laws for themselves on mobile, artificial islands resting in international waters. An invaluable experiment, he calls it now. Also: “Baggage.”

The institute’s Silicon Valley backers most prominently included Peter Thiel, the conservative billionaire and future Trump adviser, and traded in no small part on Thiel’s imprimatur. But the effort was as impractical as it sounds, and it drew criticism from local leaders and good-government groups as a form of neocolonialism. In 2018 locals defeated a commercial spinoff’s attempt to establish a seastead off the coast of Tahiti. Seasteading, like vampirism, is now on the unofficial list of topics not to raise with Thiel, who hasn’t written the institute a check in at least five years. Nonetheless, he’s become the anchor investor for Friedman’s new venture capital firm, which is trying to create some similar-sounding communities on land.

Pronomos Capital, which Friedman incorporated in August, is supposed to bankroll the construction of experimental cities on vacant tracts of land in developing countries. Pronomos is set up like a venture fund, making investments in local organizations that do the work of securing government approvals, finding tenants, and hiring retired U.K. judges to enforce the new legal framework, to be based on British common law. The firm says it’s discussing semi-autonomous cities of varying sizes with foreign and local businesspeople in countries where officials have seemed receptive to exempting them from area laws, including Ghana, Honduras, the Marshall Islands, Nigeria, and Panama. A given community could start as small as an industrial park, Friedman says. Most will be aimed at foreign businesses seeking friendlier tax treatment.

While other organizations with names such as Free Private Cities and Charter Cities Institute are advising similar efforts around the world, Pronomos is the only one with seed money from boldface names including Thiel, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, and Bitcoin evangelists Roger Ver and Balaji Srinivasan. In describing his new firm, Friedman isn’t shy to use seasteading as a reference point. “I’ve been putting these ideas out there for 20 years, and they’ve grown and compounded,” he says, sipping well water at his mountaintop compound south of San Jose. “What we get excited about is the ability to do this repeatedly.”

Why the colonial-sounding framework, right down to the old British laws? Dressed in a well-loved Slytherin sweatshirt, Friedman says it’s the best fuel for a fledgling economy and property values, and to assure global investors that their money will be safe in Pronomos projects. The justice system is more important than the tax breaks, he says, citing research that suggests faith in a functional code of laws is a leading indicator of a region’s economic success.

That’s been less than reassuring to politicians and residents leery of ceding land to unaccountable foreigners, in exchange for theoretical network effects. Fierce local opposition has halted a plan to create an independent area on a stretch of coastal land in Honduras, for example. The proposed tax incentives and other benefits for foreign investors were about as popular as you’d expect. “That land belongs to someone,” says Silvio Carrillo, the nephew of assassinated Honduran rights advocate Berta Cáceres.

Pronomos “will only go where we are wanted,” according to Friedman. He also says, with a straight face, that if Pronomos can get local officials to agree to its plans, “we have a credible shot at eliminating poverty.”

Friedman’s grandfather spent his life attacking government oversight in the field of economics, but his father, a law professor at Santa Clara University, has advocated for a kind of anarcho-capitalism on a legal basis. At age 43, Patri Friedman has pushed his family’s do-what-you-feel ethos to some other extremes, advocating for communal living, polyamory, and human-machine hybridization. He’s spent most of his career at Google, including his Seasteading Institute years. He left Google this summer to work full time on Pronomos.

“Do I want to create the first venture-backed city-state? Hell yeah”

The venture firm has raised about $9 million so far (more than half from Thiel), well short of Friedman’s initial goal. He says that’s only enough to cover basic fact-finding expenses for his local partners, and he’ll raise more to buy and develop land once governments approve the plans.

Similar ideas have gained some support beyond fringe libertarian circles. Honduras amended its constitution in 2013 to allow the creation of special economic zones outside the country’s legal framework. Erick Brimen, a startup founder who has coordinated development projects in Central America, is informally working with Friedman and others on Prospera Honduras, a local business advocacy group there. Brimen says it’s too early to discuss publicly. Other groups aiming for these kinds of extralegal territories have announced priorities including tax holidays and privatized health care and police forces.

“Our vision aligns” with Friedman’s, says Taavi Kotka, who runs an Estonian organization advocating for looser employment and tax laws to attract immigrants. “He’s a pioneer in setting up these special zones,” blockchain enthusiast Barak Ben Ezer says of Friedman. He and Friedman are working to turn the Marshall Islands into a tax haven similar to the Caymans. Friedman says he hopes to back more than a dozen projects in the next four years.

Yet even if Friedman and the other landsteaders can assuage concerns about colonial-style exploitation and the flouting of local laws, there are few guarantees in the world of quasi-sovereign states. In April a couple proclaimed their small fiberglass pod, 14 miles off Thailand’s coast, was its own nation, and the Thai government sent its military to destroy their new home, calling the proclamation an act of war. The couple has been in hiding since then. That’s why, says Friedman, he’s making sure any Pronomos projects have local officials on board. Further out, “Do I want to create the first venture-backed city-state? Hell yeah,” he says. “That’s what I’m in it for. That’s the long-term goal.”

Correction to The reverse racism effect: Are cops more hesitant to shoot Black than White suspects?

Correction to The reverse racism effect: Are cops more hesitant to shoot Black than White suspects?

Text: We would like to acknowledge our misuse of the term “Reverse Racism” within this article's title and content. We did not account for the deeply controversial racial context surrounding the term within race/racism scholarship, and its implication that subordination of communities of color no longer occurs or has been replaced by subordination of whites. In hindsight, our use of the term to describe officers fearing the consequences of being perceived as biased and modifying behavior accordingly would have been better titled “The Counter Bias Effect.”

Check, from 2016... The reverse racism effect: Are cops more hesitant to shoot Black than White suspects? Lois James, Stephen M. James, Bryan J. Vila. Criminology &amp; Public Policy, January 14 2016. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12187

Research Summary: Race‐related debates often assume that implicit racial bias will result in racially biased decisions to shoot. Previous research has examined racial bias in police decisions by pressing “shoot” or “don't‐shoot” buttons in response to pictures of armed and unarmed suspects. As a result of its lack of external validity, however, this methodology provides limited insight into officer behavior in the field. In response, we conducted the first series of experimental research studies that tested police officers and civilians in strikingly realistic deadly force simulators.

Policy Implications: This article reports the results of our most recent experiment, which tested 80 police patrol officers by applying this leading edge method. We found that, despite clear evidence of implicit bias against Black suspects, officers were slower to shoot armed Black suspects than armed White suspects, and they were less likely to shoot unarmed Black suspects than unarmed White suspects. These findings challenge the assumption that implicit racial bias affects police behavior in deadly encounters with Black suspects.

American Heart Ass'n recently published a meta-analysis that confirmed their 60-year-old recommendation to limit saturated fat (SFA, saturated fatty acid); but design and methodological flaws reduce the recommendation's strength

Dietary saturated fat and heart disease: a narrative review. Jeffery L Heileson. Nutrition Reviews, nuz091, December 16 2019, https://doi.org/10.1093/nutrit/nuz091

Abstract: The American Heart Association (AHA) recently published a meta-analysis that confirmed their 60-year-old recommendation to limit saturated fat (SFA, saturated fatty acid) and replace it with polyunsaturated fat to reduce the risk of heart disease based on the strength of 4 Core Trials. To assess the evidence for this recommendation, meta-analyses on the effect of SFA consumption on heart disease outcomes were reviewed. Nineteen meta-analyses addressing this topic were identified: 9 observational studies and 10 randomized controlled trials. Meta-analyses of observational studies found no association between SFA intake and heart disease, while meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials were inconsistent but tended to show a lack of an association. The inconsistency seems to have been mediated by the differing clinical trials included. For example, the AHA meta-analysis only included 4 trials (the Core Trials), and those trials contained design and methodological flaws and did not meet all the predefined inclusion criteria. The AHA stance regarding the strength of the evidence for the recommendation to limit SFAs for heart disease prevention may be overstated and in need of reevaluation.

Keywords: heart disease, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, meta-analysis, polyunsaturated fat, saturated fat, trans fat

Strong, negative link between worship attendance & cat ownership; maybe pets are a partial substitute for human bonding and interaction & those embedded within a religious community may have less need (or time) for pets

How Religion Predicts Pet Ownership in the United States. Samuel L. Perry, Ryan P. Burge. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, December 18 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/jssr.12637

Abstract: Over 60 percent of Americans have some sort of family pet. Although studies have explored the personality and demographic correlates of pet ownership, none have considered whether religious characteristics may influence not only pet ownership, but the kind of pet Americans own. Drawing on data from the 2018 General Social Survey, we examine the religious antecedents of pet ownership in general as well as owning a cat or a dog, taking into account factors previously associated with owning certain pets (e.g., urban vs. rural residence, political affiliation). Although religious tradition and biblical literalism generally do not predict pet ownership, frequent worship attendees and the most conservative evangelicals report owning fewer pets. Religious characteristics also predict Americans’ ownership of particular pets. Most notably, we find a strong, negative association between worship attendance and cat ownership. We theorize potential mechanisms. On the one hand, certain personality types might simultaneously attract some Americans toward religious participation and away from pets, and cats in particular. Alternatively, to the extent that pet ownership is a partial substitute for human bonding and interaction, Americans more deeply embedded within a religious community may have less need (or time) for pets generally, and specifically more independent “roommate pets,” like cats.

Women sexual fluidity as: Overall erotic responsiveness to one’s less-preferred gender; situational variability in erotic responsiveness to one’s less-preferred gender; instability in day-to-day attractions over time; & other types

Who Counts as Sexually Fluid? Comparing Four Different Types of Sexual Fluidity in Women. Lisa M. Diamond et al. Archives of Sexual Behavior, December 9 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-019-01565-1

Abstract: Previous research has examined the phenomenon of “sexual fluidity,” but there is no current consensus on the specific meaning and operationalization of this construct. The present study used a sample of 76 women with diverse sexual orientations to compare four different types of sexual fluidity: (1) fluidity as overall erotic responsiveness to one’s less-preferred gender, (2) fluidity as situational variability in erotic responsiveness to one’s less-preferred gender, (3) fluidity as discrepancy between the gender patterning of sexual attractions and the gender patterning of sexual partnering, and (4) fluidity as instability in day-to-day attractions over time. We examined how these four types of fluidity relate to one another and to other features of women’s sexual profiles (bisexual vs. exclusive patterns of attraction, sex drive, interest in uncommitted sex, age of sexual debut, and lifetime number of sexual partners). The four types of fluidity were not correlated with one another (with the exception of the first and fourth), and each showed a unique pattern of association with other features of women’s sexual profiles. The only type of fluidity associated with bisexuality was overall erotic responsiveness to the less-preferred gender. The findings demonstrate that future research on sexual fluidity should distinguish between its different forms.

Keywords: Bisexuality Sexual orientation Sexual fluidity Individual differences Women


Discussion
These results provide the first systematic study differentiating
between distinct forms of sexual fluidity, and they provide
powerful evidence that sexual fluidity is not a single overarching
individual difference dimension, but a multifaceted
phenomenon that takes different forms and which has different
implications for sexual experience. We theorized four
potential types of fluidity: (1) overall erotic responsiveness
to one’s less-preferred gender, (2) situational variability in
erotic responsiveness to one’s less-preferred gender, (3)
discrepancy between the gender patterning of one’s sexual
attractions and the gender patterning of one’s sexual partnering,
and (4) instability in day-to-day attractions over time.
We used a combination of questionnaire data, daily diary
assessments, and laboratory data to derive meaningful indices
of each form of fluidity, and tested how they related to
one another and to other features of sexuality in a sexually
diverse sample of women. The results significantly expand
our understanding of sexual fluidity by demonstrating that it
is not, in fact, a unitary construct. The four types of fluidity
were uncorrelated with one another (with one exception), and
each showed a different pattern of associations with other
features of women’s sexuality.
A notable finding is that the only type of fluidity associated
with bisexuality (i.e., the lack of polarization in a
woman’s attractions) was overall erotic responsiveness to the
less-preferred gender. This concords with previous research
suggesting that heightened erotic responsiveness to one’s
less-preferred gender is a defining feature of bisexual attractions,
and it helps to explain why the construct of sexual
fluidity is often conflated with (or attributed to) bisexuality.
Yet the findings of the present research substantially expand
our understanding of the association between sexual fluidity
and bisexuality by demonstrating that this association
only holds for one specific type of fluidity: general erotic
responsiveness to one’s less-preferred gender. Women with
less polarized (i.e., more bisexual) attractions were not more
likely to show any of the other types of fluidity we assessed
(situational variability in attractions, discrepancies between
sexual attraction and sexual partnering, or temporal instability
in day-to-day attractions). Additionally, we found that
although the first type of fluidity was also associated with
women’s sociosexuality (interest in uncommitted sex) and
total number of sexual partners, these associations were no
longer significant after controlling for women’s bisexuality.
Hence, one possible interpretation of our findings is that the
first form of fluidity—erotic responsiveness to the less-preferred
gender—should not be considered fluidity at all, but
rather bisexuality.
The second form of fluidity—situational variability in a
woman’s attractions—is theoretically closest to the notion
that fluidity represents a heightened sensitivity to contextual
influences on sexuality (Diamond, 2008a, 2008b), since it
captures the degree to which a woman’s erotic responsiveness
to the less-preferred gender varies across different domains
of assessment (self-report of attractions over the past year,
average day-to-day attractions reported in the diary, and selfreported
arousal to sexual stimuli in the laboratory). Unlike
the first type of fluidity (average responsiveness to the LPG
across different contexts), the second type of fluidity was
unassociated with the polarization of a woman’s overall
attractions. Hence, women with more bisexual patterns of
attraction do not show more variation in their erotic responsiveness
to the less-preferred gender across different contexts.
This finding significantly clarifies the persistent debate
over links and distinctions between fluidity and bisexuality.
As argued by Diamond et al. (2017), the key difference
between the construct of fluidity and the construct of bisexuality
concerns the element of change: Bisexuality is typically
theorized as a consistent pattern of sexual responsiveness
to both genders, whereas situational fluidity represents as
a capacity for variation in responsiveness across different
contexts. Whereas women with greater situational variability
in their erotic responsiveness did not have less polarized
attractions, they reported an earlier age of sexual debut and
a greater total number of sexual partners, perhaps reflecting
the fact that women with high situational variability in erotic
responsiveness are more responsive to situation-specific
opportunities for sexual contact. This might amplify their
total opportunities for sexual contact, thereby increasing their
total number of sexual partners and accelerating their initial
transition into sexual activity.
Discrepancies between women’s attractions and their
sexual partnering were not associated with any other features
of women’s sexuality, which may be attributable to the
aforementioned fact that sexual partnering is more directly
circumscribed by cultural and opportunistic factors than
subjective sexual responsiveness. Hence, when a woman’s
sexual partnering deviates from her pattern of attraction, it is
impossible to know whether this reflects her own desires, her
responsiveness to an unexpected opportunity, social pressure,
or the dynamics of a specific relationship. Additionally, our
measure of sexual partnering focused on the ratio of same-sex
to other-sex partners in adulthood. This is clearly not the only
way to represent the gender patterning of women’s behavior:
consider a woman who has 50 sexual encounters with the
same man, and a single sexual encounter with a woman. Her
percentage of same-sex partners would be 50%, but her percentage
of same-sex sexual activity would be less than 2%.
Future research investigating fluidity between one’s attractions
and one’s behavior should explore different assessments
of behavior, across different time scales, in order to determine
the relevance of different types of discrepancy. Additionally,
qualitative research should investigate women’s motives for
engaging in “uncharacteristic” or “less desirable” patterns of
sexual activity, the proximal contexts for such activity, and
women’s interpretations of their subjective meaning (Diamond,
2008a, 2008b).
The last type of sexual fluidity—temporal instability in
attractions—is the most conceptually and empirically novel,
having been used in only one other investigation of temporal
variability in sexuality (Diamond et al., 2017, although
see Farr, Diamond, & Boker [2014] for a related dynamical
systems approach to modeling temporal change in attractions).
A particular advantage of this approach is that it
focuses not on the simple observation of change in attraction,
but on what happens after this change occurs. Does the
original pattern reassert itself? If so, the underlying pattern
can be viewed as stable, anchored to the individual’s own
personal setpoint. If not, the underlying pattern can be viewed
as unstable, and more prone to perturbations from and disruptions
in the setpoint. This type of instability is conceptually
quite distinct from the other types of fluidity assessed
in the present study. The only form of fluidity with which it
was associated was the magnitude of women’s average erotic
responsiveness to the less-preferred gender (and this association
was independent of the overall polarization of a woman’s
attractions). We found that women who showed greater overall
erotic responsiveness to their less-preferred gender across
different contexts also showed more temporal instability (i.e.,
less “anchoring” to their own setpoint) over the 2-week diary
assessment. This concords with the notion that individuals
with a greater readiness to be attracted to their less-preferred
gender are more fluid than those whose attractions are more
strongly anchored to their more-preferred gender.
The lack of an association between temporal instability
and situational variability presents interesting questions: On
the one hand, one might expect that women with high situational
variability in their erotic responsiveness will show
less temporal “anchoring” in their responsiveness within a
single situation. Yet this presumes that similar factors drive
both temporal and situational change in attractions, and this
presumption remains untested. A key direction for future
research is to assess temporal instability across different
time scales, and to compare the proximal “drivers” of both
temporal change (across different situations) and situational
change (over time).
Notably, all forms of fluidity were unrelated to sex drive
and sociosexuality (as described above, general attraction
to the less-preferred gender was initially correlated with
sociosexuality, but this was no longer the case after controlling
for the polarization of women’s attractions). The lack
of associations involving sex drive runs counter to previous
research. As noted above, Lippa (2006, 2007) found that
among heterosexual and bisexual women, high sex drive was
associated with greater attraction to both their more-preferred
and less-preferred genders, suggesting that sex drive might
amplify non-dominant sexual responses. Yet we did not
find that women with higher sex drive were more erotically
responsive to the less-preferred gender (the first form of fluidity)
or to the other forms of fluidity. Given that Lippa found
different linkages between sex drive and sexual attraction
among lesbian, heterosexual, and bisexual respondents, we
conducted ancillary analyses to examine potential interactions
between the polarization of a woman’s attractions and
her sex drive in predicting any of the types of fluidity, and
found no such effects.
One potential explanation for the difference between Lippa’s
findings and the present research may concern cohort
effects. Lippa’s research was conducted over a decade ago,
during which there was less cultural visibility and more skepticism
regarding individuals who described their attractions
as “bisexual” or “mostly heterosexual” (Savin-Williams &
Vrangalova, 2013). Hence, one possibility is that the individuals
in Lippa’s study who were most likely to notice and
disclose attractions to their less-preferred gender were those
whose high sex drives made it harder to ignore them. Presently,
individuals may be more familiar with, and comfortable
disclosing, attractions to the less-preferred gender even when
those attractions are relatively mild in intensity. Clearly, further
investigation of the link between sex drive and different
forms of fluidity (not to mention investigation of fluidity in
sex drive itself) is an important direction for future research.

Tinder-Grindr use: More frequently having 3+ sex partners in the last year, having hookups in the last 2 months, having hookups involving alcohol or drug use, condomless sexual activity with new partners in the last 2 months

Is Tinder–Grindr Use Risky? Distinguishing Venue from Individuals’ Behavior as Unique Predictors of Sexual Risk. Ronald D. Rogge, Dev Crasta, Nicole Legate. Archives of Sexual Behavior, December 12 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-019-01594-w

Abstract: Geosocial networking apps (GSN; e.g., Tinder, Grindr) have rapidly increased in popularity, showing associations with greater sexual risk-taking. This study sought to distinguish between risks associated with intensive partner-seeking (i.e., individuals seeking out casual sex frequently across many venues) and risks associated with specific venues (e.g., GSNs, dating websites, offline activities). Expanding upon a literature predominantly focused on the population of men who have sex with men (MSM), we recruited a broader range of sexual identities. A convenience sample of 3180 participants from the U.S. (18–75 years old, 69% female, 75% Caucasian, 68% heterosexual) completed an anonymous, cross-sectional online survey. Logistic regressions yielded adjusted odds ratios highlighting the unique links between each predictor and sexual risk-taking. MSM/WSW indicators, quantity of partner-seeking and specific venues—particularly GSN use—emerged as robust predictors of sexual risk, increasing the odds of reporting all six outcomes examined: (1) having three or more sex partners in the last year, (2) having hookups in the last 2 months, (3) having hookups involving alcohol or (4) drug use, (5) condomless sexual activity with new partners in the last 2 months, and (6) ever having had a sexually transmitted infection. Although a large portion of risk originated from the proclivities of the individuals seeking casual sex, both online and offline methods of partner-seeking also contributed significant risk, suggesting that specific venues like GSN apps could be used as methods of targeting higher-risk behaviors. The results also highlight the importance of moving beyond MSM when addressing sexual risk.

Keywords: Geosocial networking apps Sexual risk Sexually transmitted infections Hookups Condomless sex

Online political hostility reflects the behavior of individuals predisposed to be hostile in all (also offline) contexts; but since this is more likely to be witnessed on public online platforms, these are perceived to induce more hostility

Bor, Alexander, and Michael Bang Petersen. 2019. “The Psychology of Online Political Hostility: A Comprehensive, Cross-national Test of the Mismatch Hypothesis.” PsyArXiv. December 19. doi:10.31234/osf.io/hwb83

Abstract: Why are online discussions about politics experienced as more hostile than offline discussions? A popular answer builds on the argument that human psychology is tailored for face-to-face interaction and, accordingly, people’s behavior changes for the worse in impersonal online discussions. We provide the first theoretical formalization and empirical test of this explanation: the mismatch hypothesis. We argue that mismatches between human psychology and novel features of online communication environments could (a) change people’s behavior, (b) bias their perceptions and (c) create adverse selection effects. We leverage five cross-national representative surveys and online behavioral experiments (total N=7510) to test the mismatch hypothesis but find little to no evidence. Rather, we find that online political hostility reflects the behavior of individuals predisposed to be hostile in all (including offline) contexts. Yet, because their behavior is more likely to be witnessed on public online platforms, these are perceived to induce more hostility.

Young Children Rationally Revise and Maintain What Others Think of Them

Asaba, Mika, and Hyowon Gweon. 2019. “Young Children Rationally Revise and Maintain What Others Think of Them.” PsyArXiv. December 19. doi:10.31234/osf.io/yxhv5

Abstract: We care tremendously about what others think of us. However, others’ beliefs about us critically hinge on what they did and did not observe; given limited evidence, their beliefs can be inaccurate, undesirable, or misaligned with what we think of ourselves. Thus, the ability to reason about and manage others’ beliefs about the self is critical for navigating social interactions and constructing healthy self-concepts. However, prior work on Theory of Mind has largely focused on children’s reasoning about others’ beliefs about the external world (e.g., Where does Sally think her toy is?), leaving open important questions about children’s ability to reason about others’ beliefs about the self. Here we report four experiments investigating how children reason about others’ beliefs about the self based on others’ past observations of their own performance. Three- and four-year-old children chose to demonstrate their success to someone who had only observed their failures but not their successes (Exp.1); children readily overrode their desire to demonstrate a novel toy to show their success on a familiar toy when the observer falsely believed that the child cannot operate the familiar toy (Exp. 2-3). Furthermore, when the observer had an inflated (i.e., false but desirable) belief about the self, children engaged in a task that would maintain the observer’s belief rather than a task that would reveal their true abilities (Exp.4). Building on prior work on Theory of Mind and reputation management, these results suggest that the inferential and representational capacities to reason about others’ beliefs about the self emerge early in life, and powerfully influence children’s social interaction, communication, and even task choice.

Considerable performance and representation gaps in competitive chess: Female chess players underperform their male counterparts in fast chess games; the performance gap becomes larger as the time constraint is tightened

Gender Differences in Performance under Time Constraint: Evidence from Chess Tournaments. Maryam Dilmaghani. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, December 19 2019, 101505. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.101505

Highlights
•    There are considerable performance and representation gaps in competitive chess between men and women. This paper examines the extent of the gaps when chess performance is time-constrained.
•    The World Chess Federation data, containing about 1.8 million individual observations, are used to construct a panel dataset.
•    The analysis shows that female chess players underperform their male counterparts in fast chess games. The female performance gap becomes larger as the time constraint is tightened.

Abstract: The economic literature on time-pressured decisions is slim and has mainly relied on laboratory collected data. Within this literature, only few studies have investigated the gender differences in the effects of time constraint on decision making. The World Chess Federation reports the official player ratings in Standard, Rapid and Blitz Chess. Standard, Rapid, and Blitz Chess only differ from each other in the stringency of the time constraint they impose on the players. While Standard Chess can last several hours, Rapid (Blitz) Chess allocates each player (30) 10 minutes or less for the entire game. The present paper uses 2012 to 2019 chess tournament data of the World Chess Federation to investigate the gender differences in the effects of time constraint on performance. These data, containing more than 1.8 million individual observations, are analyzed using several approaches to ensure the robustness of the findings. The results indicate that the Rapid and Blitz ratings of female chess players are below the ratings of male chess players of the same skills. While female underperformance is largely robust even at the country level, its magnitude is rather small. Finally, reexamining the question by chess skill thresholds produces evidence that female underperformance is greater among the elite players. The findings are discussed in light of the past literature.

Keywords: Gender, Competitiveness, Time Constraint, Time Pressure

Anti-Natalism from an Evolutionary Psychological Perspective & the moral processes that shape the decision to remain childless

Anti-Natalism from an Evolutionary Psychological Perspective. Faith L. Brown & Lucas A. Keefer. Evolutionary Psychological Science, Dec 19 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40806-019-00226-9

Abstract: Although research has investigated both moral psychology and evolutionary motivations behind reproduction, psychological issues at the intersection of these two domains remain relatively unexplored. In this paper, we describe anti-natalism, the ethical position that it is immoral to reproduce (e.g., Benatar 2006), and make a first outline of its potential as an area of psychological research. We note three critical gaps in knowledge: (1) extent of endorsement, (2) predictors or causes of this view, and (3) behavioral consequences of its endorsement. Although this position may seem obscure, we point to its practical relevance in understanding decisions to remain childless and its potential to contribute to a theoretical understanding of the moral processes that shape these decisions.

Emotion Dynamics Across Adulthood in Everyday Life: Older Adults Are More Emotionally Stable and Better at Regulating Desires, even though they experienced more intense desires than younger adults

Burr, Daisy A., Jaime J. Castrellon, David Zald, and Gregory R. Samanez-Larkin. 2019. “Emotion Dynamics Across Adulthood in Everyday Life: Older Adults Are More Emotionally Stable and Better at Regulating Desires.” PsyArXiv. July 18. doi:10.31234/osf.io/a3ku2

Abstract: Older adults report experiencing improved emotional health, such as more intense positive affect and less intense negative affect. However, there are mixed findings on whether older adults are better at regulating emotion—a hallmark feature of emotional health—and most research is based on laboratory studies that may not capture how people regulate their emotions in everyday life. We used experience sampling to examine how multiple measures of emotional health, including mean affect, dynamic fluctuations between affective states and the ability to resist desires—a common form of emotion regulation—differ in daily life across adulthood. Participants (N = 122, ages 20-80) reported how they were feeling and responding to desire temptations for 10 days. Older adults experienced more intense positive affect, less intense negative affect and were more emotionally stable, even after controlling for individual differences in global life satisfaction. Older adults were more successful at regulating desires, even though they experienced more intense desires than younger adults. In addition, adults in general experiencing more intense affect were less successful at resisting desires. These results demonstrate how emotional experience is related to more successful desire regulation in everyday life and provide unique evidence that emotional health and regulation improve with age.

Imagining the future has a moderate to strong impact on affect, and it has a stronger influence on affect compared to remembering the past

How imagining personal future scenarios influences affect: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Torben Schubert et al. Clinical Psychology Review, December 18 2019, 101811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2019.101811

Highlights
• Instructed positive personal future imagination boosts positive affect.
• Future worry increases negative affect equally in high-anxious and low-anxious individuals.
• Imagining the future evokes stronger affect than remembering the past.
• Magnitude of effects depends on how an imagination is applied.
• Future research needs to focus more on clinical application of future imagination.

Abstract: Imagining the future is a fundamental human capacity that occupies a large part of people's waking time and impacts their affective well-being. In this meta-analysis, we examined the effect of (1) positive future imagination and (2) negative future imagination on affect, and (3) compared the affective responses between imagining the future and remembering the past; lastly, we (4) examined potential moderating variables in this regard. We identified 63 experimental studies (N = 6813) from different research areas and combined studies that applied the best possible self imagination task, future worry induction, and episodic future simulation, respectively. Findings yielded that imagining the future has a moderate to strong impact on affect, and it has a stronger influence on affect compared to remembering the past. Relevant moderator variables in each research area were also identified. We discuss the findings for the field of psychology in general and clinical psychology in particular. More elaborate research on personal future imagination seems crucial for the further advancement of clinical applications for mental health complaints. We conclude with recommendations for future research on the impact of future imagination on affective well-being.

Keywords: Future imaginationAffectBest possible selfFuture worryEpisodic future simulationMeta-analysis

Bacterial species belonging to families known to be part of the modern human gut microbiome already populated the intestinal microbiome of Homo since as far back as the last common ancestor between humans & Neanderthals

Rampelli, Simone and Turroni, Silvia and Mallol, Carolina and Hernandez, Cristo and Galvan, Bertila and Sistiaga, Ainara and Biagi, Elena and Astolfi, Annalisa and Brigidi, Patrizia and Benazzi, Stefano and Lewis, Cecil M. and Warinner, Christina and Hofman, Courtney A. and Schnorr, Stephanie L. and Candela, Marco, Components of a Neanderthal Gut Microbiome Recovered from Fecal Sediments from El Salt. Current Biology D-19-01987. SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3497736

Abstract: A comprehensive view of our evolutionary history cannot ignore the ancestral features of our gut microbiota. To provide some glimpse into the past, we searched for human gut microbiome components in ancient DNA from 14 archeological sediments spanning four stratigraphic units of El Salt Middle Paleolithic site (Spain), including layers of unit X, which has yielded well-preserved Neanderthal occupation deposits dating around 50 kya. According to our findings, bacterial species belonging to families known to be part of the modern human gut microbiome are abundantly represented across unit X samples, showing that well-known probiotic gut components such as Blautia, Dorea, Roseburia, Ruminococcus, Faecalibacterium and Bifidobacterium already populated the intestinal microbiome of Homo since as far back as the last common ancestor between humans and Neanderthals.

Keywords: human gut microbiome, ancient DNA, microbiome-host coevolution, health-promoting microbes

Brother-brother Incest: Findings are consistent with other reports of early and persistent hyper-eroticization of incest victims

From 2013...  Brother-brother Incest: Data from an Anonymous Computerized Survey. Keith W. Beard et al. Sexual Addiction & Compulsivity, Volume 20, 2013 - Issue 3, Pages 217-253. Aug 12 2013. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10720162.2013.807483

Abstract: Retrospective data were entered anonymously by 1,178 adult men using computer-assisted self-interview. Twenty-five were victims of brother-brother incest (BBI), 26 were victims of child sexual abuse by an adult male (CSA-AM) before 18 years of age, 1,127 were controls. BBI was often the first sexual experience for the victim. Our findings were consistent with other reports of early and persistent hyper-eroticization of incest victims. BBI and CSA-AM increased the likelihood of engaging in behaviors as an adult consistent with a co-existing or primary male-male sexual orientation, and both had deleterious impacts on adult men's sexual adjustment with their adult partners.

Check also Sister-brother Incest: Data from Anonymous Computer Assisted Self Interviews.
Stephen L. O'Keefe, Keith W. Beard, Sam Swindell, Sandra S. Stroebel, Karen Griffee & Debra H. Young. Sexual Addiction & Compulsivity, Volume 21, 2014 - Issue 1, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/sister-brother-incest-findings-were.html

Also  Brother–Sister Incest: Data from Anonymous Computer-Assisted Self Interviews
Sandra S. Stroebel , Stephen L. O'Keefe , Keith W. Beard , Shih-Ya Kuo , Samuel Swindell & Walter Stroupe. Journal of Child Sexual Abuse, Volume 22, 2013 - Issue 3, Pages 255-276. Apr 16 2013. https://doi.org/10.1080/10538712.2013.743952

Abstract: Retrospective data were entered anonymously by 1,521 adult women using computer-assisted self interview. Forty were classified as victims of brother–sister incest, 19 were classified as victims of father–daughter incest, and 232 were classified as victims of sexual abuse by an adult other than their father before reaching 18 years of age. The other 1,230 served as controls. The victims of brother–sister incest had significantly more problematic outcomes than controls on many measures (e.g., more likely than the controls to endorse feeling like damaged goods, thinking that they had suffered psychological injury, and having undergone psychological treatment for childhood sexual abuse). However, victims of brother–sister incest also had significantly less problematic outcomes than victims of father–daughter incest on some measures (e.g., significantly less likely than the father–daughter incest victims to endorse feeling like damaged goods, thinking that they had suffered psychological injury, and having undergone psychological treatment for childhood sexual abuse).

Keywords: father–daughter incest, child sexual abuse, sexual satisfaction, intimacy, conflict, divorce

Performance at the ballot box is associated with high conscientiousness, openness to experience and psychopathy; extraversion is negatively associated with better results

The Electoral Success of Angels and Demons: Big Five, Dark Triad, and Performance at the Ballot Box. Alessandro Nai. Journal of Social and Political Psychology, Vol 7, No 2 (2019). Nov 2019. https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v7i2.918

Abstract: The article tests whether the personality of candidates – in terms of their Big Five (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability, and openness) and Dark triad (narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism) – is associated with their electoral results. Via a novel dataset based on expert ratings for 122 candidates having competed in 55 recent national elections worldwide, and controlling for several covariates, results show that a better performance at the ballot box is associated with high conscientiousness, openness to experience and psychopathy. Extraversion is negatively associated with better results. Analyses also reveal profile effects; extraversion is linked to worse results especially for incumbents and younger candidates, conscientiousness and narcissism are associated with better results especially for candidates on the right-hand side of the ideological spectrum, and openness is associated with better results for male candidates.

Keywords: electoral success; Big Five; Dark Triad; personality; candidates; comparative data

Main Results and Discussion

The electoral success of 122 candidates having competed in 55 elections worldwide was regressed on their personality profile (plus controls). Several significant effects, which resist most robustness checks, were found. A better performance at the ballot box is associated with high conscientiousness, virtually on par with the “incumbency bonus” and confirming a known trend in studies on business job (Salgado, 1997). Openness to experience is also linked positively with success (Joly et al., 2018) and so is psychopathy – again, in line with studies on job performance and business (Babiak & Hare, 2006; Boddy et al., 2010). Extraversion is linked with lower success, perhaps because extroverted might be perceived as lacking seriousness – thus, in line with what found for conscientiousness. Results also reveal profile effects, that is, significant interactions between the profile of candidates and their personality. Extraversion is linked with worse results especially for incumbents and younger candidates, conscientiousness and narcissism are linked with stronger success in candidates on the right-hand side of the ideological spectrum, and openness is associated with greater success for men.

The rather strong effect of psychopathy might seem disturbing. After all, character components often associated with this trait are high impulsivity, thrill-seeking, low empathy and anxiety (Paulhus & Williams, 2002), definitely not ideal traits one could hope for in people we elect to lead us. Yet, the results seem more likely to support the idea that “successful psychopaths” – that is, individuals scoring high in non-clinical psychopathy which nonetheless show high levels of extrinsic success, e.g., in their career – benefit from high conscientiousness (Mullins-Sweatt et al., 2010). In the particularly antagonistic “social niche” of political competition, both psychopathy and conscientiousness are linked with extrinsic success. The fact that conscientiousness is the trait with virtually the strongest association with electoral success, also considering other powerful alternatives, sheds a somewhat positive light over electoral competition: if being likeable and nice counts less than being serious and dependable, then the much discussed “Americanisation” of politics, where exchanges about ideas are replaced by “beauty contests” where only the image matters, has not yet achieved the dramatic levels some fear.

Limitations

This article describes the first cross-national large-scale comparative study of how the (perceived) personality of candidates drives their electoral success. Yet, although covering a large number of cases across virtually all regions of the globe, the representativeness of the geographical coverage is contingent to the elections that took place in the period under investigation. Data collection in the study is still under way, and future iterations of the dataset will expand the scope – ideally towards full coverage of the countries around the globe. A second limitation comes directly from the use of expert judgments to measure the personality of elites. As discussed above, expert ratings provide evaluations of perceived personality traits, and the question whether these judgments reflect only a perceived public persona or, instead, are able to capture differences in the elites’ personality structure is still up for grabs. Also contested by some is whether external observers are able in the first place to provide an objective assessment of public figures, especially in light of potential ideological biases of “experts” (e.g. Wright & Tomlinson, 2018). Yet, evidence in several studies suggests that external observers are often able to provide relatively unbiased estimations (e.g., Nai & Maier, 2019; Vazire, 2006); furthermore, from a normative standpoint the importance of ethical concerns such as those expressed by the “Goldwater rule” are increasingly contested (e.g., Lilienfeld et al., 2018). Finally, the large-scale scope of the comparison made impossible the use of granular data about support for different candidates at the voter level (e.g., by pairing the dataset with representative mass post-electoral surveys in each country). Yet, reasons exist to believe that the personality of elites has unique effects on different voters. Voters tend to appreciate and support political figures with personalities that “match” their own (Caprara & Zimbardo, 2004; Caprara et al., 2003; Caprara et al., 2007b; Fortunato et al., 2018), and certain candidate personality profiles might seem more appealing for some voters but not for others – for instance the “drunken dinner guest” brash style of populists (Arditi, 2007) could be particularly appreciated by voters scoring low on agreeableness (Bakker et al., 2016). Future research should strive to develop a better understanding of whether individual differences moderate the effect of candidates’ personality in a comparative setting.

Conclusion: Theoretical, Methodological and Applied Implications

The research in the political consequences of elites’ personality is still in its infancy. The few existing studies are either limited to specific traits (e.g., psychopathy; Lilienfeld et al., 2012) or cases (e.g., Belgian elected officials; Joly et al., 2018). Yet, results presented in this article were globally in line with the evidence discussed in those studies. From a theoretical perspective, the results contribute to both the fields of political decision-making and behavioural consequences of individual differences. First, the results suggest that contemporary accounts of electoral competition are overlooking an important component – who the candidates are, beyond what they propose and how they frame it – which seems likely to drive part of their electoral fortune. In this sense, integrated models of voting choices should include, beyond citizens’ attitudes and preferences, a more nuanced account of the “supply” side, for instance in terms of candidates’ personality. Second, the results are consistent with findings in other disciplines (e.g., business; Babiak & Hare, 2006; Hochwarter et al., 2000), suggesting that personality plays a similar role in different contexts.

From a methodological standpoint, because obtained with an alternative approach – expert ratings – the results discussed here suggest that attention should be granted in further research to initiatives that triangulate alternative approaches for the measure of elite personality. Beyond comparative initiatives yielding self-ratings of elites via standardized surveys, quite promising is the avenue of machine learning automated coding of political speeches (Ramey et al., 2017, 2019), especially if coupled in the future with the automated coding (e.g., via computer vision) of non-verbal cues – facial expression, voice pitch, bodily gestures. Forthcoming research should strive to integrate alternative approaches towards a comprehensive and multimodal understanding of personality as a performative act, where the textual and lexical dimension of the communication is overlapped with the emotional behavior of the individuals under investigation (Poria et al., 2017).

Finally, from an applied standpoint, the results are can be seen as new recipes to be added to the cookbook of campaign consultants and spin doctors – or, at the very least, as new variations of old recipes. Modern campaign consultants are naturally drawn towards the use of more antagonistic communication techniques (e.g., Francia & Herrnson, 2007; Geer, 2012), seen as efficient tools to bolster candidates’ standings while keeping the opponents at bay. This recipe seems consistent with the positive effects played by psychopathic traits on electoral success, as described in the study. Yet, the fact that high extraversion harms electoral performances while high conscientiousness enhances them is a call for caution when designing excessively aggressive campaigns; if boldness is rewarded in competitive social dynamics, candidates are still expected to perform their duties seriously and in a competent manner. Recent studies have started exploring the link between communication strategies and candidates’ personality traits (e.g., Nai et al., 2019), and abrasive political figures such as the 45^th occupant of the White House will undoubtedly renew the attention of the discipline, the media, and the public at large towards the role of personality and character in politics.