Mating with immature females is an alternative tactic for brown widow males, since adult females cannibalize mating males & immature females do not; but males approached and preferred to mate with adult females

Alternative mating tactics in a cannibalistic widow spider: do males prefer the safer option? Lenka Sentenská, Gabriele Uhl, Yael Lubin. Animal Behaviour, Volume 160, February 2020, Pages 53-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2019.11.021

Highlights
•    Mating with immature females is an alternative tactic for brown widow males.
•    Adult females cannibalize mating males, but immature females do not.
•    Males approached and preferred to mate with adult females over receptive immatures.
•    Males did not show a preference for unreceptive versus late-stage receptive immatures.
•    Close-range cues in webs of immatures may indicate receptivity.

Abstract: Mating generally occurs with adult females, which undergo a suite of changes in morphology, physiology and behaviour during maturation. In the brown widow spider, Latrodectus geometricus, however, males can mate with immature females during a short period before they moult to the adult stage. Mating with immature females seems beneficial for males, because they are not at risk of being cannibalized, whereas cannibalism inevitably occurs in matings with adult females. We conducted choice experiments to elucidate male preference, courtship and mating behaviour with immature and adult females of different ages. We controlled for age of the females’ webs to provide males with potential web-borne attractants of similar age. We tested whether males distinguish immature females that are ready to mate (late subadult stage) from adult females and from immature females that do not mate (early subadults), and we examined male response to young versus old adult females. Males approached and mated with adult females more frequently than late subadult females, but there were no differences in the frequencies of approach to early and late subadults or to adult females of different ages. Once on the web, however, males attempted to mate with the late subadults. We suggest that web-borne volatile cues, typical of adult females, may be reduced or lacking in late subadult females, yet less volatile cues may indicate receptivity.

Discussion

Male L. geometricus mated with late subadult females, which would seem to be highly advantageous for the male due to the reduced courtship combined with consistently successful copulation with both palps and lack of sexual cannibalism (Biaggio et al., 2016, Waner et al., 2018; this study). However, when we presented males with late subadult and adult females simultaneously, they typically chose adult, cannibalistic females over the noncannibalistic subadult females. Males showed this preference even when we controlled for web age, a confounding factor that might have affected their choice for adult females observed in a previous study (Waner et al., 2018).

Sexual Attractants

Male L. geometricus might not recognize subadult females as potential mates due to a lack of sex pheromone (Waner et al., 2018). For example, Fisher et al. (2018) suggested that subadult females of the false black widow spider, Steatoda grossa, do not produce a sexual-attractant pheromone. However, male widow spiders are often found on webs of subadult females in nature (Y. Lubin, personal observation). Furthermore, males readily approached the subadult females in their webs, when we exposed the males to late subadult females against an empty control and they did so as rapidly as when they approached adult females. These observations suggest that even before the final moult females produce cues that act as sexual attractants by which males recognize subadult females as potential mates.

In our experiments, we found no evidence that the age of adult females influenced the male's response in choice tests, contrary to previous findings (Waner et al., 2018) where males preferred older adult females to young adults and late stage subadults. The result of Waner et al. (2018) was probably due to the presence of a stronger pheromone cue that had accumulated in the older web. We also observed no difference in the male's approach towards late subadult females, which are ready to mate, and early subadult females, which are not. This suggests that males cannot identify from a distance whether the subadult females are ready to mate. However, after contacting their webs, males courted the early subadult females only very briefly and then remained in their webs without any further courting, but males immediately courted and then mated with late subadult females. Thus, our observations agree with other studies on spider chemical communication, which suggest that airborne chemicals provide less specific information than chemicals detected by contact with the web (reviewed in Gaskett, 2007, Uhl, 2013). Similarly, when presented with adult and late subadult females, males seemed to recognize the female stage only upon contacting the web because only then did they begin to add silk when with an adult female or vibrate when with a late subadult female.

The observed preference of males for adult rather than subadult females could be due to quantitative differences in male-attracting signals or to different cues emitted by subadult and adult females. Virgin adult females of many spider species attract males by producing pheromones that signal readiness to mate (Gaskett, 2007, Kasumovic and Andrade, 2004, Riechert and Singer, 1995, Roberts and Uetz, 2005, Stoltz et al., 2007, Uhl, 2013). Subadult mating in L. geometricus occurs during a 4-day period before the final moult (late subadult stage). In general, adults seem to produce more pheromone and thus provide a stronger signal than immature females and often only adults produce pheromones (Gaskett, 2007, Uhl and Elias, 2011, Uhl, 2013, Fischer et al., 2018). Then, the observed preference for adult females represents rather an attraction to a stronger signal than a preference for a certain stage per se. A few pheromones have been chemically characterized for virgin adult females (e.g. in the genus Latrodectus; Jerhot, Stoltz, Andrade, & Schulz, 2010) but none for subadults. Although males often cohabit with subadult females (Jackson, 1986), these females might not produce sex pheromones, and males may identify them by unintentionally produced chemical cues (Fischer, 2019). Therefore, olfactory cues produced by subadult females may be qualitatively different from pheromones of adult females, potentially allowing males to differentiate between the two stages. If these chemicals are distinguishable by males, the choice of adult females over late subadults might indicate that the former are perceived as higher-quality mates, even though mating with them limits males to a single copulation and sometimes even to a single insertion (Segoli, Arieli, et al., 2008).

Costs to Males of Mating with Subadult Females

There may be fitness costs to males adopting the subadult mating tactic. After mating, subadult-mated females still have to undergo a final moult to adulthood and may have a lower probability of surviving to oviposition than adult-mated females. The moulting process itself is a sensitive period due to the risk of predation on moulting or freshly moulted spiders, the risk of desiccation or an inability to release the old cuticle (e.g. Horner and Starks, 1972, Jones, 1941, Tanaka, 1984). Thus, males may prefer to mate with adult females due to the overall greater probability of successful reproduction.

Costs of mating with late subadult females could also arise from the specific mating behaviour and the mechanisms of copulation, sperm transfer and sperm storage. When mating with subadult females, L. geometricus males do not somersault and are not cannibalized. In the congener L. hasselti, cannibalism reduces the likelihood of a female remating (Andrade, 1996). Thus, the lack of cannibalism might lead to a greater probability of remating in subadult-mated females and consequently to paternity loss for the first male. Furthermore, during courtship with adult females, the male removes a large part of the female's web and adds his own silk. Webs of adult female L. hasselti that were thus altered by males attracted fewer suitors (Scott, Kirk, McCann, & Gries, 2015), a phenomenon observed also in other web-building species (reviewed in Scott, Anderson, & Andrade, 2018). By contrast, we showed here that webs of subadult-mated females were not altered by the male; male courtship was brief, the web remained intact and the male added little silk. A subsequent male might thus have no indication of a previous visitor. It is unclear whether subadult-mated females remain attractive to males and whether these females will remate after maturing to adults (Biaggio et al., 2016, Waner et al., 2019). Finally, although mating with a subadult female enables the male to seek an additional female, high mortality during mate search (more than 80% of L. hasselti males die without finding a mate; Andrade, 2003) may reduce the benefit of such matings.

A male mating with subadult females may have lower paternity than expected for the first male in adult matings due to unfavourable sperm storage conditions or incorrect placement of sperm in the subadult female spermathecae, or to lower competitive ability of his sperm against a second male's sperm. If the internal genitalia of late subadult females are not fully developed, sperm storage conditions may differ from those in adult females and might result in a lower paternity share for a male's sperm when competing with ejaculates of other males. It is possible that the mating plugs cannot be placed correctly or can shift when subadult females moult and thus may be a less effective barrier to remating. Additionally, the lack of somersaulting while mating with late subadult females may mechanically alter the insertion mechanism and affect where sperm is deposited within the female's reproductive tract. The location of deposited sperm and the storage conditions, together with potentially insufficient plugging in subadult matings, may yield lower reproductive success. In the congener, L. hasselti, the first of two males mating with an adult female achieves approximately 80% paternity (Snow & Andrade, 2005). However, the paternity share may differ if a subsequent male inseminates a female mated as subadult after she has moulted. These potential costs of mating with a subadult female can be revealed through paternity assessments in double-mating trials.

Our observation showed that L. geometricus males mate with late subadult females, but do not attempt to do so with younger subadults. Despite this, they did not show any preference for late over early subadult females. Cohabiting with subadult females and then mating with them when they moult is known for many spider species (Jackson, 1986) including the widow spiders (Biaggio et al., 2016, Segoli et al., 2006). Although in L. hasselti and L. geometricus the encounter with late subadult females often leads to immediate mating, cohabiting with early subadult females and waiting for them to mature may be another mating tactic in a male's repertoire. Additionally, it is likely that males cannot determine from a distance subadult females' readiness to mate.

Comparing learning to normative benchmarks reveals that people overreact to signals about goods that they own, but that learning is close to Bayesian for non-owned goods

Ownership, Learning, and Beliefs. Samuel M. Hartzmark Samuel Hirshmany Alex Imasz. November 2019. https://fraconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/ownership_learning_beliefs.pdf

Abstract: We examine how owning a good affects learning and beliefs about its quality. We show that people have more extreme reactions to information about a good that they own compared to the same information about a non-owned good: ownership causes more optimistic beliefs after receiving a positive signal and more pessimistic beliefs after receiving a negative signal. This effect on beliefs impacts the valuation gap between the minimum owners are willing to accept to part with the good and the maximum non-owners are willing to pay to attain it, i.e. the endowment effect. We show that the endowment effect increases in response to positive information and disappears with negative information. Comparing learning to normative benchmarks reveals that people overreact to signals about goods that they own, but that learning is close to Bayesian for non-owned goods. In exploring the mechanism, we find that ownership increases attention to recent signals about owned goods, exacerbating over-extrapolation. We demonstrate a similar relationship between ownership and over-extrapolation in survey data about stock market expectations. Our findings have implications for any setting with trade and scope for learning, and provide a microfoundation for models of disagreement that generate volume in asset markets.

KEYWORDS: biased beliefs, endowment effect, ownership, attention, behavioral economics, learning, extrapolation
JEL Classifications: D9, D12

American atheists are relatively liberal and likely to experience political conflict and follow political news; agnostics are particularly likely to vote and feel politically isolated from their families

The Politics of Religious Nones. Philip Schwadel. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, February 2 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/jssr.12640

Abstract: Americans with no religious affiliation (aka religious “Nones”) are not a politically homogeneous community. Just as there are political differences between groups of Christians, there are political differences between groups of religious Nones. I use nationally representative survey data to examine the political activities and perspectives of atheists, agnostics, and those who are “nothing in particular.” Results show that Americans who report that their religion is nothing in particular are relatively uninterested in politics and unlikely to be politically active; atheists are relatively liberal and likely to experience political conflict and follow political news; and agnostics are particularly likely to vote and feel politically isolated from their families. In many ways, the “softer” secularism of those who are nothing in particular is politically more similar to religious affiliates than the “harder” secularism of agnostics and especially atheists. These results have important implications for the future of American politics as Nones now have the potential to rival evangelical Protestants as a politically relevant constituency.

The data used for this study come from Wave 23 of the Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel. The data can be downloaded from the Pew Research Center website: https://www.pewresearch.org/american-trends-panel-datasets/

Exposure to half-dressed women and economic behavior: Men take more risk, no effect on willingness to compete & math performance; very little effect on economic decision making

Exposure to half-dressed women and economic behavior. Evelina Bonnier et al. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 168, December 2019, Pages 393-418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.017

Highlights
•    We randomize 648 participants of both genders in the lab to advertising images.
•    The images contain either half-dressed women, fully dressed women, or no women.
•    We study the effects on risk taking, willingness to compete and math performance.
•    We find no treatment effects on any outcome measure for women.
•    There is some evidence of men taking more risk after viewing half-dressed women.

Abstract: Images of half-dressed women are ubiquitous in advertising and popular culture. Yet little is known about the potential impacts of such images on economic decision making. We randomize 648 participants of both genders to advertising images including either women in bikini or underwear, fully dressed women, or no women, and examine the effects on risk taking, willingness to compete and math performance in a lab experiment. We find no treatment effects on any outcome measure for women. For men, our results indicate that men take more risk after having been exposed to images of half-dressed women compared to no women.

A sales tax is better at promoting healthy diets than the fat tax (a tax on "unhealthy" food) and the thin subsidy (a subsidy on "healthy" food)

A sales tax is better at promoting healthy diets than the fat tax and the thin subsidy. Zarko Kalamov. Health Economics, 2020;1–14, DOI: 10.1002/hec.3987

Abstract: We analyze how a sales tax levied on all food products impacts the consumption of healthy food, unhealthy food, and obesity. The sales tax can stimulate the consumption of healthy meals by lowering the time costs of food preparation. Moreover, the sales tax lowers obesity under more general conditions than a tax on unhealthy food (fat tax) and a subsidy on healthy food (thin subsidy). We calibrate the model using recent consumption and time use data from the US. The thin subsidy is counterproductive and increases weight. While both the sales tax and the fat tax mitigate obesity, the former imposes a lower excess burden on consumers.

Keywords: fat tax, obesity, sales tax, thin subsidy
JEL: D11; I12; I18; H31; H51


1  INTRODUCTION
Many countries tax unhealthy foods to address the obesity epidemic: Chile, France, Ireland, Mexico, and the UK among others tax sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), Finland taxes sweets and non-alcoholic beverages, while Hungary taxes food products with health risks. However, these policies may be ineffective or even counterproductive in reducing obesity, as consumers may substitute to untaxed unhealthy food alternatives (Schroeter, Lusk, & Tyner, 2008). To minimize this problem, governments can broaden the tax base (Finkelstein, Zhen, Nonnemaker, & Todd, 2010; Harding & Lovenheim, 2017; Miao, Beghin, & Jensen, 2013). Therefore, nutrient taxes (such as a sugar tax or a fat tax) are more effective than product taxes (such as a tax on SSBs). This article is the first to propose a sales tax on all food products as an instrument that promotes healthy diets. A sales tax may stimulate healthy consumption by lowering the opportunity cost of cooking time. Moreover, a sales tax imposes a low excess burden on consumers, measured both per kcal reduction in consumption and per dollar of tax revenues. We model a representative consumer in a model akin to that of Yaniv, Rosin, and Tobol (2009) and take explicitly into account the higher opportunity cost in terms of time of healthy consumption. The individual chooses between consumption of healthy and unhealthy food and has a fixed out-of-work time constraint, which she can spend on cooking meals and leisure. The individual consumes unhealthy meals away-from-home (defined as food prepared away-from-home), and their preparation is not time-consuming. Healthy food is produced at home using both time and ingredients.

We show that the sales tax lowers the opportunity cost of time in food preparation and may thus stimulate healthy consumption. If the elasticity of substitution between healthy and unhealthy food is sufficiently high, the sales tax exerts a positive effect on the demand for healthy meals. A tax on unhealthy foods (called for simplicity a fat tax) and a subsidy to healthy consumption (called a thin subsidy) have qualitatively similar effects on the demand for healthy and unhealthy food. Moreover, we show that the policy, which reduces obesity under the least restrictive conditions, is a positive sales tax in the absence of a fat tax and a thin subsidy.
Our model builds on the empirical observation that home-cooked meals are healthier than away-from-home food. Compared to the consumption of away-from-home meals, intake of home-cooked food is associated with higher intake of fiber, iron, and calcium; lower intake of fat, sodium, and cholesterol; lower calorie density (Guthrie, Lin, & Frazao, 2002; Lin & Frazao, 1997; Lin & Frazao, 1999) and lower weight (Chou, Grossman, & Saffer, 2004; French, Harnack, & Jeffery, 2000). Furthermore, a higher frequency of food preparation raises the consumption of fruits and vegetables and lowers the intake of fat, SSBs and fast-food (Larson, Perry, Story, & Neumark-Sztainer, 2006; Laska, Larson, Neumark-Sztainer, & Story, 2012; McLaughlin, Tarasuk, & Kreiger, 2003; Monsivais, Aggarwal, & Drewnowski, 2014; Wolfson & Bleich, 2015b). The positive dietary impact of frequent cooking occurs irrespectively of the weight-loss intentions of individuals (Wolfson & Bleich, 2015a). Kolodinsky and Goldstein (2011) estimate that ten additional minutes of cooking time lower BMI by 0.13 points. Zick, Stevens, and Bryant (2011) find that ten minutes food preparation lower the BMI of women by 0.17 points and do not affect the BMI of men, who, however, are a small share of the meal preparers in their data.

In Section 4, we calibrate the model according to recent U.S. consumption and time allocation data. We estimate the home production function, the dietary characteristics of at-home- and away-from-home-food and the time allocation decisions such that they match data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2010 (CDC, 2010) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2010 (BLS, 2010). The simulated model makes predictions regarding the own- and cross-price elasticities of healthy and unhealthy food that match existing empirical data on these elasticities.

We find in the benchmark case of our simulation that a 10% sales tax lowers away-from-home consumption of men and women by 7.9% and 4.8%, respectively. On the other hand, men's at-home consumption declines by just 0.01% and that of women rises by 0.01%. Hence, the intake of at-home food remains almost unaffected. As a result, men lose 4% of their weight and women 1.8%. On the other hand, a 10% fat tax induces a stronger substitution of at-home for away-from-home consumption. Consequently, it leads to a lower weight decrease. Moreover, the excess burden of the sales tax, measured using the compensating variation, is lower than that of the fat tax, irrespective of whether we calculate the excess burden as the welfare loss per dollar of tax revenues or per reduction in calorie intake. Furthermore, the sales tax's excess burden is also small in absolute value. It equals around 1 − 1.7 cents per dollar of tax revenues and 2 − 2.9 cents per 100 kcal reduction in consumption. Lastly, an introduction of a thin subsidy stimulates strong substitution of healthy for unhealthy food, such that weight slightly increases following the subsidy's implementation. The article from Yaniv et al. (2009) is most related to our paper. They analyze the fat tax and thin subsidy under consideration of the time costs of home-food preparation. Neither policy instrument is unambiguously obesity-reducing because of indeterminate substitution effects on away-from-home food consumption and physical activity.

Bishai (2015) considers the welfare implications of a tax plus subsidy system that raises (lowers) the price of unhealthy (healthy) nutrients but leaves the final product prices unchanged. He shows that such a system may improve welfare.

There is strong empirical evidence that a fat tax does not necessarily reduce weight, because of a possible switch to untaxed alternatives (Chouinard, Davis, LaFrance, & Perloff, 2007; Fletcher, Frisvold, & Tefft, 2010b; Schroeter et al., 2008; Zhen, Finkelstein, Nonnemaker, Karns, & Todd, 2014). Schroeter et al. (2008) estimate that a tax on food-away-from-home and a subsidy on fruit and vegetables may increase obesity. Zhen et al. (2014) show that a tax on SSBs can reduce their consumption at the cost of higher intake of fat and sodium. Furthermore, Fletcher, Frisvold, and Tefft (2010a), Fletcher et al. (2010b) find empirical support that such taxes have a significant effect on SSB consumption, but an insignificant effect on weight. Jeffery, French, Raether, and Baxter (1994) and French et al. (1997) find a significant short-term impact of subsidizing fruits and salads at university and high school cafeteria, which vanishes after the removal of the subsidy. [...]


5 CONCLUSIONS

This paper has compared three different policy instruments, which can be used to address the problem of rising obesity levels: a fat tax (levied on food-away-from-home), a thin subsidy (levied on groceries that enter home food preparation) and a sales tax on all food items. First, we show that a sales tax may stimulate time-intensive healthy consumption by lowering the opportunity cost of time spent on food preparation. Therefore, it may exert a positive effect on the demand for healthy meals. If healthy and unhealthy meals are perfect substitutes, then all three policy instruments have the same qualitative impact on the consumer's demand: they reduce the consumption of unhealthy meals and raise the consumption of healthy food. Second, the policy which reduces obesity under the most general conditions is a sales tax in the absence of the fat tax and the thin subsidy.

A calibration of the model shows that the sales tax mitigates obesity at the lowest welfare cost for consumers. Furthermore, the deadweight cost of the sales tax is small is absolute value. It imposes an excess burden of less than 2 cents per dollar of tax revenues and 3 cents per 100 kcal reduction in the calorie-intake.

Our results open ample opportunities for future research. While this article extends the model of Yaniv et al. (2009) to include a general elasticity of substitution between food at-home and away-from-home and the possibility of non-food purchases, we do not consider the choice of physical exercise. Including it may produce further interesting results on the effects of a sales tax.

Additionally, this article hightlights the role of the price of time in consumption choices. It explains the higher time spent cooking by women through lower opportunity cost of leisure. Gender differences in the price of time are likely caused by the gender wage gap, as documented by Zick et al. (2011). These authors use wage regressions from the March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) and find the opportunity cost of time for men and women to be 20.57 $∕hour and 16.84 $∕hour, respectively. The gender wage gap is also likely to contribute to unequal distribution of cooking time in non single-adult households. Moreover, closing of the gap is likely to affect this distribution. Hence, more research is necessary to analyze how different opportunity costs of time and the elimination of these differences may affect household production.

Moreover, future work should compare the sales tax to nutrient-specific taxes such as a tax on sugar or fat content. The sales tax may be more efficient in promoting healthy diets as it targets several unhealthy nutrients at once by lowering away-from-home consumption. Furthermore, a comparison to the tax plus subsidy system of Bishai (2015) along the same lines is necessary.

This paper has contributed to the literature by emphasizing the time costs of healthy consumption and showing their importance for the optimal policy design. Future research should focus on analyzing other policies that lower the opportunity cost of home food preparation or provide other incentives for cooking. Two public health programs that have already been implemented in the US are the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Healthy Incentives Pilot which provides financial incentives for the purchase of fruits and vegetables and the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Farmer's Market Nutrition program which issues coupons to participants to buy foods from farmers (Smith, Ng, & Popkin, 2013). An evaluation of the effects of these programs on the participants' cooking habits is an important research agenda.

Taxing all food products may be regressive, as poor households spend a larger proportion of their income on food relative to rich households. As a result, an important agenda for future research is to quantify this effect and analyze how governments should spend the tax receipts, such that the tax becomes less regressive. Additionally, it is well-known that a fat tax is also regressive (see, e.g., Chouinard et al. (2007)). Therefore, future work should compare the regressivity of a fat tax to that of a sales tax.

Liberian experiment: After one academic year, students in outsourced schools scored 0.18 σ higher in English and mathematics

Outsourcing Education: Experimental Evidence from Liberia. Mauricio Romero, Justin Sandefur, and Wayne Aaron Sandholtz. American Economic Review. Feb 2020, Vol. 110, No. 2: Pages 364-400. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20181478

Abstract: In 2016, the Liberian government delegated management of 93 randomly selected public schools to private providers. Providers received US$50 per pupil, on top of US$50 per pupil annual expenditure in control schools. After one academic year, students in outsourced schools scored 0.18 σ higher in English and mathematics. We do not find heterogeneity in learning gains or enrollment by student characteristics, but there is significant heterogeneity across providers. While outsourcing appears to be a cost-effective way to use new resources to improve test scores, some providers engaged in unforeseen and potentially harmful behavior, complicating any assessment of welfare gains. (JEL H41, I21, I28, O15)

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Tyler Cowen says (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/the-private-school-experiment-in-liberia.html):

[...] The gains are real, and not the result of student selection.  That said costs are higher with the private contracting.  Better partner selection would have improved the program greatly, though the authors note that some of the most promising partners ex ante ended up being the biggest troublemakers ex post.  Some of the schools, for instance, allowed a possibly unacceptably degree of sexual abuse of the students.  There is perhaps potential for dynamic reoptimization of permissible partners to yield very real gains, though this may or may not be supported by the available political economy incentives.

The authors suggest, by the way, that outsourcing or contracting out to the private sector often does better when quality is relatively simple, such as with water services, food distribution, and simple forms of primary health care, such as immunization.  In their view, for advanced health care and prisons, contracting is less effective, due to the vaguer nature of product quality.

Unwantedness across birth order explains a substantial part of the documented birth order effects in education & employment; we find no birth order effects in families who have more control over their fertility

Birth order and unwanted fertility. Wanchuan Lin, Juan Pantano, Shuqiao Sun. Journal of Population Economics, April 2020, Volume 33, Issue 2, pp 413–440. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-019-00747-4

Abstract: An extensive literature documents the effects of birth order on various individual outcomes, with later-born children faring worse than their siblings. However, the potential mechanisms behind these effects remain poorly understood. This paper leverages US data on pregnancy intention to study the role of unwanted fertility in the observed birth order patterns. We document that children higher in the birth order are much more likely to be unwanted, in the sense that they were conceived at a time when the family was not planning to have additional children. Being an unwanted child is associated with negative life cycle outcomes as it implies a disruption in parental plans for optimal human capital investment. We show that the increasing prevalence of unwantedness across birth order explains a substantial part of the documented birth order effects in education and employment. Consistent with this mechanism, we document no birth order effects in families who have more control over their own fertility.

Keywords: Birth order Unwanted births Fertility intentions
JEL Classification: J13 J22 J24

The growth of behavioural complexity as well as the ex-vivo accumulation of human behaviour (non-genetically inherited behaviourome), cannot be explained by genetic/epigenetic mechanisms of inheritance

Mechanisms of a near-orthogonal ultra-fast evolution of human behaviour as a source of culture development. Christian P. Müller. Behavioural Brain Research, February 2 2020, 112521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbr.2020.112521

Highlights
• A new mechanism for the recent time evolution of human behaviour is proposed
• Non-genetic inheritance (NGI) and accumulation of behaviour is crucial for culture
• The human behaviourome concept is introduced
• Mechanisms of a near-orthogonal and ultra-fast NGI of the behaviourome are suggested
• Behaviourome mutations can be target-directed
• Ex-vivo storage and -accumulation of the behaviourome are pivotal for culture

Abstract: Current human culture is characterized by an increasing rate of accumulating potential and actually performed behaviours. The growth of behavioural complexity as well as the ex-vivo accumulation of human behaviour, here identified as the non-genetically inherited (NGI) behaviourome, cannot be explained by genetic/epigenetic mechanisms of inheritance. As human beings derive their socio-cultural identity predominantly from their behaviourome, mechanisms of heritability should predominantly consider inheritance and accumulation of the NGI behaviourome. Here we propose key mechanisms of a near-orthogonal and ultra-fast evolution of the NGI human behaviourome that provide a foundation not only of unique human culture development, but also of its recent acceleration. Thereby, the evolution of the human NGI behaviourome underlies similar features as genetically based evolution. However, specific mechanisms of mutation and selection work largely independent (orthogonal) from genetic/epigenetic mechanisms. We suggest a mechanism of how adaptive changes (mutations) in the NGI behaviourome work target-directed and how selection works on an ultra-fast time scale. Selection results are mostly not fatal for the individual which allows for a much increased mutation rate. For crucial accumulation of the NGI behaviourome, ex-vivo storage and retrieval systems of virtually unlimited capacity are described. We discuss the great potential of the human NGI behaviourome in respect of speculative human super-reproduction and homosexual reproduction success, as well as a possible unique human way to avoid reproduction failure in childlessness. Altogether, this model of human behavioural reproduction and accumulation of behaviour may provide a base for better understanding and prediction of uniquely human cultural development.

Keywords: behaviouromebehavioural accumulationcultural evolutionex-vivo storagenear-orthogonal evolutionnon-genetic inheritancereplication failure, super-reproductiontargeted mutationultra-fast selection

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9. Childless and homosexual reproduction success

It is speculated that a considerable part of the human population which appears threatened by reproduction failure are childless and homosexual man and women, which were denied a direct genetic reproduction. In non-human animals, the lack of genetically-related offspring and homosexuality leads to a general reproduction failure which may, however, be partly overcome by supporting kin and their offspring [182]. In humans, the individual NGI behaviourome constitutes a large part of the personal identity. This can be passed on in a gradual way, from almost complete to small traces of the individual NGI behaviourome. The individual NGI behaviourome may very well be inherited in small or even large proportions by NGI mechanisms, may it be to foster children or even children not being in any legal care responsibility. By that way, also childless and/or homosexual human individuals may reproduce their individual behavioural phenotype to a considerable extent. The degree of this reproduction may even be so large that genetically unrelated foster children are seen as a fully accepted biological offspring [242]. For example, many cuckoo children are not recognized by their fathers as not-genetically related, especially when the inherited paternal NGI behaviourome is copied to a significant degree [17].

Behavioural teaching in humans is often outsourced from the pedigree, e.g. in the kinder garden, in schools, or universities. There, teachers not only teach the macro social environment shared part of the NGI behaviourome (e.g. common knowledge and social behaviour), but also to some extent their own individual NGI behaviourome. As such, pupils may inherit always some parts of their teacher’s individual NGI behaviourome. And depending on the teacher, this can be quite large and influential for the non-kin recipients. Based on the above described proximal mechanisms of NGI, this may be one reason why teachers often prefer and treat in a more affectionate and supportive way those pupils that show a strong similarity in their individual behaviourome to the own one. When a non-kin relationship between teacher and pupil is likely or known, similarity in the NGI behavioural phenotype is preferred to similarity in the physical phenotype which would otherwise serve as a proxy indicator of genetic overlap. This may go as far as considering non-kin pupils like a “son in mind” (and behaviour), although being well aware that they are non-kin.

Even super-reproduction of the NGI behaviourome appears possible for childless and/or homosexual individuals by whom the behaviourome is transmitted to a very large population of recipients. This may or may not include homosexuality and related behaviours. Famous artists may serve here as outstanding examples for behavioural reproduction, such as e.g. Leonardo da Vinci or Oscar Wilde. Their live records (as behavioural instructions) and achievements as artists (as successful results of their NGI behaviourome) are still serving as blue prints for young artist’s attitudes and working modes. They are often seen as brilliant examples of their profession.

An as yet unanswered question in human evolution has been why do homosexuals not die out when their genome is not inherited [182]? A potential new answer to this question may be provided by NGI of the behaviourome. Homosexual partner preference and associated behavioural patterns may readily be assumed to be part of the NGI behaviourome, which is not inherited from genetic parents. At least, no genetic source for this behaviour has been discovered; neither as a preserved genetic base, nor in the shape of de novo genetic mutations [207]. Nevertheless, homosexual behaviour can be copied from non-kin and from ex-vivo sources (e.g. written records), or may be established as a de novo behaviour. Likewise, it may be passed on effectively to next generation non-kin, and become ex-vivo stored. But how is it providing any fitness benefit for those who copy and express it? The advantage may be in saving on resources that heterosexual individuals have to spend on genetic reproduction. This may set capacity free to innovate new NGI behaviours and to develop more sophisticated NGI behaviouromes that can contribute more than average to the general population NGI behaviourome pool and, thus, to culture. And as long as cultural advancement, i.e. the qualitative or quantitative expansion of the NGI behaviourome, is rewarded in a human society and enhances chances of survival for the individual, this behavioural trait may remain in the NGI behavioural pool. Nonetheless, it should be noted that certain societies do actively punish the behavioural trait of homosexuality and its in-vivo and ex-vivo inheritance and replication. Gay people are threatened by death penalty and books/movies about this behavioural phenotype are prohibited and prosecuted. The relative persistence of this behaviour may arise from the delayed nature of the cultural benefit. While the perceived threat of genetic replication failure is immediately perceived by a group, the potential benefits in cultural advancement are delayed. As such, the behavioural trait of homosexuality is submitted to a reward discounting in a group/society, which can yield opposite outcomes depending on how immediate vs. delayed reward are valued. If the immediate risk of replication failure is valued higher, the behavioural trait may become supressed, i.e. actively punished by society. If the delayed reward is valued higher, homosexuality may become accepted and even actively rewarded.

[...]

11. Empirical testing of the proposed mechanisms of a near-orthogonal ultra-fast evolution of human behaviour in culture development

Here, we described a mechanism of human NGI behaviourome evolution that was characterized as near-orthogonal and ultra-fast acting compared to genetic/epigenetic based evolution and claimed it to be a major source of present day human culture. As this is currently only a speculative account, all components of this claim would need empirical testing and the opportunity of falsification. This may be done by addressing each feature separately.

The “near-orthogonal” claim can be falsified when evidence shows that the human NGI behaviourome has a predominant genetic/epigenetic base that essentially displays the same temporal dynamic change as the human behavioural phenotype. For that, it would be an important research goal to empirically classify the full human NGI behaviourome in all its current complexity and to empirically monitor its changes closely from now on. From the starting point of a categorized present day human NGI behaviourome, one should estimate backwards its dynamic change over the last five thousand years. This may be paralleled by measurements of the human genome/epigenome development backward and forward. Behavioural and genetic/epigenetic data may then allow testing of whether and to what extent the dynamic development of the human behaviourome over that time is best described by a process near-orthogonal and, thus, largely independent from genetic/epigenetic evolution. Likewise the “ultra-fast” nature can be tested by comparing time scales and the degree of behaviourome change. Time scales for alterations of the human genome/epigenome that are known to have changed human behaviour and the dynamic of behavioural changes for which no genetic base can be identified, may be compared in the relevant 5000 years.

A proposed unique characteristic of the evolution of the human NGI behaviourome is its capability for targeted mutations of behaviour, e.g. during puberty. Thereby, the proposed Lamarckian mechanism may be experimentally tested in longitudinal studies where single parental behaviours may be artificially introduced that would be mildly maladaptive for the offspring, and trans-generational mutation rate is measured together with rate and quality of newly invented behaviours that can replace the abandoned/non-replicated ones. However, when ethical concerns should limit this experimental approach, also quasi-experimental post hoc analysis of behavioural mutations during puberty would provide some clues.

If the claim that the presented mechanism is a major driving force for human culture, it would be critical to test for an accumulation of the NGI behaviourome, i.e. the sheer number of human behaviours should increase in the relevant time span, which should not be paralleled by an increase in behaviourally relevant genes or epigenetic modifications.

12. Summary and outlook

If a biological, psychological or cultural theory of evolution wishes to explain development and current diversity of life, it also has to capture the present appearance of human beings. It has to provide a reasonable account of its radical transformation in the last few thousand years. Here we tried to identify and characterize mechanisms of a near-orthogonal and ultra-fast evolution of human behaviour which serve as an essential prerequisite for human cultural development in the last 5.000 years of human history. In that they are not meant to replace a genetic/epigenetic based evolution, but to largely expand them by mechanisms which allow to better explain many features of human culture that cannot be readily captured by genetic evolution. The Darwinian account of evolution comprises all living beings on earth, may they express behaviour or not. Human behavioural evolution theory, in contrast, captures only a relatively small aspect of biology, the NGI component of the human behaviourome. Nevertheless, this is the one that has submitted the surface of earth to probably the most profound changes induced by living species ever recorded in the history of life on earth, with significant effects on virtually all other species and on inanimate nature. Among those changes is what we consider as human culture, a vast array of NGI behaviours that are no longer genetically coded, but inherited, externally stored, spread and accumulated. In that the present account attempts to provide an explanatory scheme of how distinct genetically inherited features gave rise to human culture.

The "diversity equity and inclusion statement" required of anyone hired by the University of California: Only those statements scoring high enough are passed on for scholarly review

Wokeademia. John Cochrane. Thursday, January 30, 2020. https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/01/wokeademia.html

I'm working on an economic view of political polarization. One aspect of that project is the extent to which many institutions in our society have become politicized. Today's post is one little data point in that larger story. It tells a little story of how to politicize an institution and silence dissenters.

Jerry Coyne reports on the "diversity equity and inclusion statement" required of anyone hired by the University of California, or desiring a raise or promotion. This is a required statement each candidate must write "Demonstrating Interest in and Ability to Advance Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion." It's not about whether you are "diverse," meaning belonging to a racial, gender, or sexual-preference group the University wishes to hire. It is a statement, as it says, of your active participation in a  political movement.

Jerry's news in this post is that the statements are now being scored numerically, and only the files of those scoring high enough are passed on for scholarly review. 

[...]

The university not only requires the statements, but gives

these statements precedence in the hiring process, so that if your statement doesn’t exceed a minimum numerical cutoff for promoting diversity, increasing it in your past, and promulgating it in the future should you be hired, your candidacy is terminated

[...]

Jerry links to the UC Rubric to assess candidate contributions to diversity equity and inclusion. It's lovely that they are so secure they don't think they have to hide this sort of thing.

 [Impressive, read it all: https://ofew.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/rubric_to_assess_candidate_contributions_to_diversity_equity_and_inclusion.pdf]


Much more details, links at the original post.

When facing others who hold beliefs different from our own, we do not find these encounters disturbing because of the different beliefs per se, but because we are convinced that others hold false beliefs

The Othello Effect: People are more disturbed by others' wrong beliefs than by different beliefs. Andras Molnar, George Loewenstein. Carnegie Mellon University, PA, January 2020. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338828490

Abstract: We propose an alternative account to the theory of belief homophily--that people have an intrinsic distaste for encountering differences in beliefs. We argue that when people face others who hold beliefs different from their own, they do not find these encounters disturbing because others hold different beliefs per se, but because they are convinced that others hold false beliefs. In three preregistered studies (N = 1408) featuring self-recalled personal experiences and vignette scenarios, we demonstrate that participants are more disturbed when others hold false beliefs, compared to cases in which others' beliefs are different, even when participants' objective knowledge about the validity of beliefs is held constant. This effect is robust across contexts and types of social interactions, and is present among all ages and both sexes. We also show that higher confidence that others hold wrong beliefs, but not different beliefs, evokes stronger negative emotions.

How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’ degree of conformity

Conformity and Individuals’ Response to Information About Aggregate Turnout. André Blais, Rafael Hortala-Vallve. Political Behavior, February 1 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-020-09595-5

Abstract: How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’ degree of conformity. We argue that in addition to the classic calculus of voting, conformist voters have an added incentive to ‘follow the pack’ and vote when turnout is high while abstain when turnout is low. We conduct two separate experiments, the first a survey experiment with a representative sample of the UK population and the second a lab experiment in Canada. Both studies confirm our hypothesis. These findings highlight the importance of taking individuals’ level of conformity into account when explaining their decision to vote or abstain.

Keywords: Conformity Turnout Survey experiment Lab experiment

Conclusion

Our research highlights the importance of including social conformity in the study of political phenomena. Recent research in political psychology has focused on the Big Five personality traits (see especially Mondak et al. 2010) but our study suggests that we should go beyond these personality traits. Politics is very much about collective decision-making, so there is an underlying tension between the desire for personal autonomy and the need for social norms that are respected and followed by everyone in the community. Citizens strike a different balance between these two considerations, and this is bound to shape their behavior.

We have combined a survey experiment conducted in Britain and a lab experiment performed in Canada to test our hypothesis. Both studies produced remarkably similar findings: in both instances, people who score higher on the social conformity scale are more prone to vote (abstain) when they know that most other people vote (abstain) while those who score low on the conformity scale have exactly the opposite reaction. If a predicted high turnout makes conformists more inclined to vote and if there are many conformists in the electorate, then a relatively high turnout would be an equilibrium.

The implications of our study hinge in good part of the distribution of individuals across the conformity scale in a given society at a given point in time. To the best of our knowledge there are no time-series or cross-section data about the distribution of conformity across societies or over time. The data that we have collected in Britain (see Fig. A1 in Online Appendix A1) suggest a relatively normal distribution, with the mean (7.52 on a 0 to 17 scale) indicating a slight majority of non-conformists. The point remains that, at least in our representative poll of British society, there are many people with conformist leanings.

We therefore end with a call for more attention to be paid to an individual’s social conformity. A huge literature exists in social psychology about the role of conformity, yet little research has been devoted to its impact in political life. Our study suggests that it is a crucial variable in the decision to vote or abstain. There are good reasons to believe that it shapes other political phenomena such as the decision to participate in demonstrations or to engage in strategic or bandwagon voting. It makes sense to assume that many people pay attention to information about what others in the community are likely to do when deciding whether to vote or abstain. Political scientists need to integrate such considerations into their models and analyses.

Our study also raises important questions about the relationship between social conformity and other factors that may affect voter turnout. One such question pertains to the relationship between social conformity and sense of civic duty. Are conformists more prone to believe that they have a moral obligation to vote? Are both attitudes shaped by personality traits? Another set of questions is about the relationship between social conformity and social pressure. We would expect conformists to pay attention to social pressure. But what kind of social pressure? In this study, we have examined how conformists react to information about aggregate turnout. But what happens when conformists are exposed to conflicting information, if/when for instance they learn that turnout in the country is going to be high but that most friends/relatives are going to abstain? These are big questions about which we have no clear answer.

Macaques in the wild cooperating for copulation: Males actively shared the mating opportunities, i.e., a male copulated with a female, while his ally waited his turn and guarded them

Cooperation for copulation: a novel ecological mechanism underlying the evolution of coalition for sharing mating opportunities. Aru Toyoda, Tamaki Maruhashi, Suchinda Malaivijitnond, Hiroki Koda, Yasuo Ihara. bioRxiv, January 31, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.927772

Abstract: Cooperation, or the act of benefiting others at the cost of the benefactor's fitness, has been a central issue in evolutionary theory. Non-human animals sometimes show coalitions or male-male cooperation to confront a male rival and challenge the rank hierarchy. Here we observed novel types of coalitions in wild stump-tailed macaques; multiple males actively shared the mating opportunities, i.e., a male copulated with a female, while his ally waited his turn and guarded them. Our mathematical simulations revealed that lack of estrous signs, as well as large numbers of males in a group, possibly enhance facultative sharing of females. This is the first demonstration of the sharing of females in non-human primates, and shed light on the evolutionary theory of cooperation.

DISCUSSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first mammalian observation of collaborative
mate guarding by males, followed by facultative sharing of mating opportunities. Males in other
species, such as chimpanzees, olive baboons, and lions, also collaborate to guard females against
other males. The "cooperative mate guarding by coalition males" in these species appear to be
similar to those in the stump-tailed macaque; however, they fundamentally differ in social
relationships between/among coalition allies or non-allies. The stump-tailed macaque forms
multi-male multi-female societies, which includes a large number of males in the group, among
which only certain individuals tolerate sexual competition and show exclusive attitude toward
others. Male allies in a coalition exclude rivals and then share the mating opportunities with each
other. Thus, coalitions of stump-tailed macaques act as dominant males’ strategy for overcoming
reproductive competition within a group, by sharing the mating opportunities, as well as by
excluding other rivals. In the case of lions, a pride is the unit of a group, which mainly consists
of females and only few males, who collectively defend the females from other invasive males.
This is similar to coalitions of stump-tailed macaques, although alpha (the highest ranking) males
mostly monopolize the mating opportunities, whereas subordinate allies may either have no
access to the females or are allowed limited number of copulations, albeit not through active
sharing. Similarly, olive baboons are a well-known species forming male-male “coalition for
reproduction”, but differ from the stump-tailed macaques regarding the formation of coalitions.
The subordinate baboons form a coalition to jointly attack the dominant male, thereby increasing
their future access to females, while not showing any active sharing of copulations. The
observations made with one chimpanzee group might be comparable to our observations
regarding the stump-tailed macaque, where active sharing copulation (a female copulated with 8
males within a short period) was observed [29]. However, these were considered exceptions only
in the Ngogo population, which are considerably larger than the other populations [see section of
‘Contrasts with other chimpanzee communities’ in 29].
In stark contrast, stump-tailed macaques showed active sharing of mating opportunities
that they jointly obtain among the male allies. In this novel type of coalition, the alpha male
appeared to pay a reproductive cost by giving mating opportunities away to benefit his allies, and
the subordinate males in return repay in terms collaborative work efforts, as a result of which
they gain reproductive advantage as a team. Furthermore, the cooperation among three males is
another novel feature. Generally, coalition formation has been observed in the context of
aggression, characterized by triadic relations, such as the attacker, attack recipient, and supporter.
In the cognitive aspect, coalition formation may require higher abilities of social cognition,
termed "triadic awareness" [30–33], where the individual must recognize not only the dyadic
relationship between two individuals, but also the relationships with other individuals [34]. The
collaboration among three individuals, which is rarely observed in non-human animals, may
require the more expanded capacity of social cognition in this species. Hence, we consider
coalition formation in stump-tailed macaques as a unique instance of male-male cooperation to
achieve reproductive gain, which we believe is rare in non-human animals.
Why do male stump-tailed macaques, unlike males of closely related species, exhibit this
peculiar behavior? To put it in another way, what are the socio-ecological factors in stump-tailed
macaques that may have favored the evolution of this behavior? Here, we tentatively hypothesize
that the absence of signs of ovulation in female stump-tailed macaques is key to understanding
the evolution of male-male coalition, followed by facultative sharing. In many primate species,
the females exhibit visual or olfactory signs of ovulation during the fertile period of the
reproductive cycle. Conspicuous estrous signals such as sexual swellings enhance male-male
competition, providing females more opportunities for mate choice [35–37]. Advertisement of
female reproductive status is often seen in Old World monkeys living in multi-male multi-female
societies, such as most macaques, baboons, and chimpanzees [35–37]. When female
reproductive status is advertised, it is relatively easy for the alpha male to monopolize
fertilizations, as in that case he can concentrate all his guarding efforts on the females fertile at
that moment. On the other hand, when female ovulation is cryptic, the alpha male is no longer
able to adopt the selective guarding strategy, and reproductive monopoly is only possible if all
cycling females are guarded all the time. Our hypothesis is that the difficulty in establishing
reproductive monopoly by the alpha male due to concealed ovulation may have promoted
coalition formation of top-ranking males. Despite the low copulating frequency, it is surprising
that the males adopt a strategy to efficiently monopolize and share the copulating
opportunities—a critical reproductive resource—among multiple coalition males.
Our discovery of male-male coalition, followed by active sharing of mating opportunities
in stump-tailed macaques, demands a revision of the existing socioecological models in primate
social systems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first documented case in non-human
primates of non-kin collaborative effort for acquiring resources based on active sharing among
allies. We have hypothesized that the lack of estrous signs in female stump-tailed macaques,
unlike many Old World monkeys, is a key factor enhancing male-male coalition coupled with
active sharing. Concealed ovulation is likely to reduce the extent to which fertilizations are
monopolized by dominant males. In our mathematical model, this effect is represented by the
reduction in parameter ". The model predicts that male-male coalition is more likely to occur
when " is small, confirming the logical consistency of our hypothesis. From the female's
perspective, monopolization by dominant males is indicative of limited opportunities for females
to select mates, particularly when they prefer copulations with subordinate or out-group males.
Thus, concealed ovulation may be considered as a female strategy to facilitate mate choice.
Further extending the argument, the formation of coalition followed by active sharing of mating
opportunities may be a counter strategy of dominant males. In other words, being unable to
control female reproduction on his own, the alpha male may be better suited surrendering some
fertilization opportunities to elicit cooperation by subordinates. Hence, the intensified sperm
competition in stump-tailed macaques may be a joint consequence of female concealment of
fertility states and male sharing of mating opportunities. In addition, a potentially relevant
observation is that female stump-tailed macaques do not produce copulation calls [38]. Although
the function of female copulation calls is still a matter of contention [39,40], a possible
interpretation is that female stump-tailed macaques do not make any effort to induce male mate
guarding.
The present study has also revealed the importance of the number of males in a group as
a predictor for the formation of copulation coalitions among dominant males. In other words,
male-male coalition is more likely to be formed when there are more males in a group. In our
field site, we observed five groups of stump-tailed macaques consisting of 391 individuals, or on
an average 78.2 individuals per group. The relatively large group size is primarily due to the
semi-provisioning conditions in our study site, and this factor also appears to affect the
socioeconomic sex ratio, i.e., the ratio of the number of adult females to the number of adult
males. The average socioeconomic sex ratio in our sample is 1.33, while those that have been
previously reported for other populations of stump-tailed macaques are approximately 5.7 [18].
The smaller socioeconomic sex ratio indicates more intense male-male contest. Hence, both large
number of males per group and small socioeconomic ratio may have facilitated the occurrence of
coalition formation by dominant males in our study population.
Per our observational data, the coalition sizes were two or three, but did not exceed four;
however, our current model predicts the monotonic increase of the coalition size over four,
depending on the number of males in a group. This “discrepancy” might indicate three as the
limit of the coalition size in non-human animals. Actually, psychological experiments on
cooperative tasks revealed possibilities of collaboration by two or three subjects, but difficulties
were encountered with four or more subjects even in chimpanzees, probably due to the
limitations of social cognition. For the recognition of quadradic relations, an individual has to
recognize the possible combinations of dyadic and triadic relations, exponentially increasing the
socio-cognitive loading in the brain. Thus, such a socio-cognitive background might limit the
coalition size in stump-tailed macaques. In contrast, humans have evolved a hyper-cooperative
manner beyond the triadic allies, as suggested by the Machiavellian intelligence hypothesis.
We have also observed within-species variation to the extent to which copulations are
monopolized by dominant males, which is represented by " in our model. Despite the marked
ecological similarities between groups, the estimated "′ ranged from 0.30 to 0.97. In the Third
("Z = 0.97) and Wngklm ("Z = 0.78) groups, copulations were almost completely monopolized
by the alpha males, a situation that is called "despotic." This contrasts with the conventional
classification of primate societies, in which stump-tailed macaques are characterized as having
"egalitarian" societies [41], or class 3 social systems [42]. The traditional classification intends to
place each species on a single position on the despotic-egalitarian spectrum, based largely on the
species-level characterizations of ecological factors, such as whether or not a given species is
seasonal breeder, or the abundance and spatial distribution of food resources [43]. However, our
observations clearly suggest that the level of despotism as indicated by " is determined not
necessarily in such a top-down manner, but in a more bottom-up way, such that it may vary
within species according to the idiosyncrasies of each group. For example, our field observation
indicates that the despotic nature of the Third group may have been caused not only by the
physical strength of the alpha male, THR-M01, but by the absence of competent rivals; in fact,
other males seem either too old or immature to challenge him. Therefore, it appears that bottom5 up mechanisms determine " in each group, which then determines whether the alpha male will
adopt the solo monopolization strategy or the coalition strategy.
Finally, our model predicts the future dynamics in the stump-tailed macaque groups. For
example, when youngsters in the Third group become sufficiently mature to challenge the alpha
male, and as a consequence " is reduced, our model predicts that the alpha male will form
coalition with other males. We expect that a longitudinal observation of wild stump-tailed
macaques will confirm these model predictions. In conclusion, stump-tailed macaques are
characterized by societies ranging from despotism to egalitarianism, and from monopolization of
females by a dominant male to male-male coalition coupled with active sharing of mating
opportunities. Future studies on wild stump-tailed macaques may shed new light on the origins
and evolution of altruism and cooperation in mammalian societies, including the hypercooperation in human societies.

Policy interventions aimed at correcting self-servingly biased misperceptions are unlikely to be effective in the long run due to people’s ability to forget or suppress information that threatens their desired views

The Dynamics of Motivated Beliefs. Florian Zimmermann. American Economic Review. Feb 2020, Vol. 110, No. 2: Pages 337-363. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20180728

Abstract: A key question in the literature on motivated reasoning and self-deception is how motivated beliefs are sustained in the presence of feedback. In this paper, we explore dynamic motivated belief patterns after feedback. We establish that positive feedback has a persistent effect on beliefs. Negative feedback, instead, influences beliefs in the short run, but this effect fades over time. We investigate the mechanisms of this dynamic pattern, and provide evidence for an asymmetry in the recall of feedback. Finally, we establish that, in line with theoretical accounts, incentives for belief accuracy mitigate the role of motivated reasoning. (JEL C91, D83, D91)

---
We find that negative feedback is indeed recalled with significantly lower accuracy, compared to positive feedback, which suggests that the dynamic belief pattern we have identified is indeed driven by the selective recall of information. Next, we make use of additional outcome variables and a placebo condition to delve into how selective recall operates. In a nutshell, the following patterns emerge. Our results suggest that participants are able to suppress the recall of unwanted memories. Furthermore, participants appear to suppress the recall of not only negative feedback but also the IQ test more broadly. Our results lend direct support to key modeling assumptions in Bénabou and Tirole (2002, 2004). From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that policy interventions aimed at correcting self-servingly biased misperceptions via information or feedback are unlikely to be effective in the long run due to people’s ability to forget or suppress information that threatens their desired views.

Kissing frequency was a strong indicator of both specific sexual quality & global relationship connectivity, barometer of the more immediate quality of sexual relationships & the overall relationship quality

A kiss is not just a kiss: kissing frequency, sexual quality, attachment, and sexual and relationship satisfaction. Dean M. Busby,Veronica Hanna-Walker &Chelom E. Leavitt. Sexual and Relationship Therapy, Jan 31 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/14681994.2020.1717460

Abstract: Kissing can be thought of as a relationship maintenance behavior and/or as part of the sexual repertoire. Using data from 1,605 participants in committed relationships for at least two years, we analyzed how kissing frequency was associated with specific aspects of the two most recent sexual experiences, attachment, and global sexual and relationship satisfaction using a structural equation model. Kissing frequency had a significant, positive association with all specific aspects of recent sexual experiences (levels or arousal, experience of orgasm, and event-specific sexual satisfaction) and global sexual and relationship satisfaction. Kissing frequency had a significant, negative association with anxious and avoidant attachment. The associations with attachment and specific aspects of recent sexual experiences only partially mediated the relationship between kissing frequency and global relationship and sexual satisfaction. The results indicated that kissing frequency was a strong indicator of both specific sexual quality and global relationship connectivity and may be a promising variable to utilize as a barometer of both the more immediate quality of sexual relationships as well as overall relationship quality.

Keywords: Kissing, attachment, sexual satisfaction, relationship satisfaction

Small-scale societies: Divinatory statements provide a version of the situation that most participants are motivated to agree with, providing efficient coordination at a minimal cost for almost all participants

Why Divination? Evolved Psychology and Strategic Interaction in the Production of Truth. Pascal Boyer. Current Anthropology, Jan 14, 2020. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706879

Abstract: Divination is found in most human societies, but there is little systematic research to explain (1) why it is persuasive or (2) why divination is required for important collective decisions in many small-scale societies. Common features of human communication and cooperation may help address both questions. A highly recurrent feature of divination is “ostensive detachment,” a demonstration that the diviners are not the authors of the statements they utter. As a consequence, people spontaneously interpret divination as less likely than other statements to be influenced by anyone’s intentions or interests. This is enough to give divination an epistemic advantage compared with other sources of information, answering question 1. This advantage is all the more important in situations where a diagnosis will create differential costs and benefits, for example, determining who is responsible for someone’s misfortune in a small-scale community. Divinatory statements provide a version of the situation that most participants are motivated to agree with, as it provides a focal point for efficient coordination at a minimal cost for almost all participants, which would answer question 2.

Despite motivation to alleviate discomfort and to maintain a morally good self-concept, more severe moral transgressions are actually remembered more frequently, more vividly, and with more detail

The phenomenology of remembering our moral transgressions. Shenyang Huang, Matthew L. Stanley Felipe De Brigard. Memory & Cognition, January 27 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13421-019-01009-0

Abstract: People tend to believe that they truly are morally good, and yet they commit moral transgressions with surprising frequency in their everyday lives. To explain this phenomenon, some theorists have suggested that people remember their moral transgressions with fewer details, lower vivacity, and less clarity, relative to their morally good deeds and other kinds of past events. These phenomenological differences are thought to help alleviate psychological discomfort and to help people maintain a morally good self-concept. Given these motivations to alleviate discomfort and to maintain a morally good self-concept, we might expect our more egregious moral transgressions, relative to our more minor transgressions, to be remembered less frequently, with fewer details, with lower vivacity, and with a reduced sense of reliving. More severe moral transgressions might also be less central to constructions of personal identity. In contrast to these expectations, our results suggest that participants’ more severe moral transgressions are actually remembered more frequently, more vividly, and with more detail. More severe moral transgressions also tend to be more central to personal identity. We discuss the implications of these results for the motivation to maintain a morally good self-concept and for the functions of autobiographical memory.

Keywords: Autobiographical memory Moral psychology Identity Self Phenomenology

British football leagues: Male height is positively associated with social dominance; but the ‘Napoleon complex’/‘small man syndrome’ suggests that smaller males are more assertive & punitive to compensate

Referee height influences decision making in British football leagues. Dane McCarrick, Gayle Brewer, Minna Lyons, Thomas V. Pollet & Nick Neave. BMC Psychology volume 8, Article number: 4 (2020). January 17. https://bmcpsychology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40359-020-0370-4

Abstract
Background Male height is positively associated with social dominance, and more agonistic/competitive behaviours. However, the ‘Napoleon complex’ or ‘small man syndrome’ suggests that smaller males are more assertive and punitive to compensate for lack of height and social dominance. Here, we assess possible relationships between height and punitive behaviours in a real-world setting.

Methods Using a non-experimental correlational design, we analysed data on 61 male association football referees from four professional leagues in England, and explored relationships between their height and punitive behaviours in the form of yellow cards, red cards and penalties given during an entire season.

Results Overall there was no effect of referee height on fouls awarded. However, there was a main effect of height on yellow cards awarded, with shorter referees issuing more yellow cards. The same effect was found for red cards and penalties, though this was moderated by league. In the lower leagues, more red cards and penalties were awarded by relatively shorter referees, but in the higher leagues more red cards and penalties were awarded by relatively taller referees.

Conclusions These findings from real-life public dominance encounters show that height is associated with punitive behaviours, but is sensitive to context.

Rolf Degen summarizing... People are reluctant to adopt low-carbon behaviors as long as "the rich" and the “egoistic people” are not doing their part

Revisiting the Psychology of Denial Concerning Low-Carbon Behaviors: From Moral Disengagement to Generating Social Change. Susanne Stoll-Kleemann, Tim O’Riordan. Sustainability 2020, 12(3), 935, January 27 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030935

Abstract: This paper reassesses the scope for shifting high-carbon personal behaviors in the light of prevailing insufficient political and regulatory action. Our previous research has shown that citizens regard such behavioral shifts as extremely daunting and create a number of psychological denial mechanisms that draw attention to the inaction of others, including governments. Further theoretical insights and relevant new findings have been attained from a more recent survey of more than 1000 German residents. This reveals that direct denial of anthropogenic climate change is replaced by a denial of responsibility for individual climate action. Ways of moral disengagement play a more dominant role, such as the diffusion and displacement of responsibility, although a majority is aware of—and very much concerned about—the climate crisis. More attention needs to be given for further reinterpretation of the role of moral disengagement to single out adequate strategies for different individuals and groups of people, such as making role models more visible to encourage social learning that could accelerate further necessary moral and behavioral transformations.

Keywords: climate change; behavior change; denial; emotions; low-carbon behavior; moral disengagement; collective action; responsibility; self-efficacy

All religious, etchnic, and racial groups appear to make use of pornography; its use is associated with greater health, knowledge, and standard of living, and lower homophobia

Pornography Use: What Do Cross-Cultural Patterns Tell Us? David L. Rowland, Dudbeth Uribe. In: Cultural Differences and the Practice of Sexual Medicine pp 317-334. January 28 2020. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-36222-5_18

Abstract: Access to online pornography has increased greatly over the past decade. In this chapter we first review purported effects of pornography use. We then present data compiled from one source of internet pornography use, namely Pornhub, and review findings from a cross-cultural perspective. Specifically, we investigate age and gender patterns across various regions of the world and relate pornography use to a number of sociocultural indices. Results indicate changing age and gender patterns with respect to pornography use, as well as relationships with indices of human development, gender inequality, trans/homophobia, and internet access. Given that internet pornography may increasingly serve as a means of sex education in many cultures, the importance of implementing meaningful and balanced sex education that promotes healthy sexual relationships is critically important.

Keywords: Pornography Cross-cultural Online Gender Age Worldwide trends Effects

Our expressed virtue judgments of specific traits may function, in part, as self-interested propaganda, by influencing the social value assigned by local others to the traits we happen to possess

Morality and the Modular Mind: Propagandistic Self-Interest and Perceptions of Virtue. Schwab, Leon T. California State University, Fullerton, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2019. 27547780. https://search.proquest.com/openview/d3e07a339e0df51cfc8a674b86ab3f5c/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=2026366&diss=y

ABSTRACT: The underlying cognitive mechanisms that regulate how people formulate moralistic judgements of others’ behaviors and traits are poorly understood. This study tests the novel prediction, based on a hypothesized function of self-interested propaganda, that the extent to which a given trait is perceived as virtuous is positively influenced by one’s own standing on that trait. In a first study, data were gathered from 237 participants who completed an online survey. Participants rated the same list of traits for (i) their self-perceived standing on those traits, and (ii) their judgment of those traits as being virtuous. Some notable correlations between self-perceived trait possession and virtue ratings of those traits are Patriotism (r = 0.56, p < .01), Religiosity (r = 0.56, p < .01), Attractiveness (r = 0.5, p < .01), and Strength (r = 0.49, p < .01). A second study replicated these findings when controlling for participants’ estimates of (i) what others in their immediate social world would perceive as virtues, and (ii) what others in their distant social world would perceive as virtues. Although preliminary, these initial findings suggest that our expressed virtue judgments of specific traits may function, in part, as self-interested propaganda, by influencing the social value assigned by local others to the traits we happen to possess.

1985-2017: Media representations of climate change have become increasingly politicized, whereby political actors are increasingly featured and scientific actors less so

Politicization and Polarization in Climate Change News Content, 1985-2017. Sedona Chinn, P. Sol Hart, Stuart Soroka. Science Communication, January 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547019900290

Abstract: Despite concerns about politicization and polarization in climate change news, previous work has not been able to offer evidence concerning long-term trends. Using computer-assisted content analyses of all climate change articles from major newspapers in the United States between 1985 and 2017, we find that media representations of climate change have become (a) increasingly politicized, whereby political actors are increasingly featured and scientific actors less so and (b) increasingly polarized, in that Democratic and Republican discourses are markedly different. These findings parallel trends in U.S. public opinion, pointing to these features of news coverage as polarizing influences on climate attitudes.

Keywords: climate change, computerized content analysis, news, politicization


Check also Merkley, Eric, and Dominik Stecula. 2020. “Party Cues in the News: Democratic Elites, Republican Backlash and the Dynamics of Climate Skepticism.”  British Journal of Political Science. Preprint January 25. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/01/supporters-of-republican-party-have.html

And Political leanings are the strongest predictors of climate change beliefs, particularly among the more knowledgeable:

Climate Change: A Partisan and Polarized Issue in the United States. Risa Palm, Toby Bolsen. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in South Florida pp 15-40, January 2 2020. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/01/political-leanings-are-strongest.html

The Smartphone as a Pacifying Technology: In moments of stress, engaging with one’s smartphone provides greater stress relief than one’s laptop or a similar smartphone belonging to someone else

The Smartphone as a Pacifying Technology. Shiri Melumad, Michel Tuan Pham. Journal of Consumer Research, ucaa005, January 27 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucaa005

Abstract: In light of consumers’ growing dependence on their smartphones, this article investigates the nature of the relationship that consumers form with their smartphone and its underlying mechanisms. We propose that in addition to obvious functional benefits, consumers in fact derive emotional benefits from their smartphone, in particular, feelings of psychological comfort and, if needed, actual stress relief. In other words, in a sense, smartphones are not unlike “adult pacifiers.” This psychological comfort arises from a unique combination of properties that turn smartphones into a reassuring presence for their owners: the portability of the device, its personal nature, the subjective sense of privacy experienced while on the device, and the haptic gratification it affords. Results from one large-scale field study and three laboratory experiments support the proposed underlying mechanisms and document downstream consequences of the psychological comfort that smartphones provide. The findings show, for example, that (a) in moments of stress, consumers exhibit a greater tendency to seek out their smartphone (study 2); and (b) engaging with one’s smartphone provides greater stress relief than engaging in the same activity with a comparable device such as one’s laptop (study 3) or a similar smartphone belonging to someone else (study 4).

Keyword: product attachment, psychology of technology, mobile marketing, digital marketing

Exaggerated psychological stress reactivity linked to increase in risk factors for cardiovascular disease; blunted reactivity predicted future increased obesity, greater illness frequency, poorer cognitive ability

Psychological stress reactivity and future health and disease outcomes: A systematic review of prospective evidence. Anne I. Turner et al . Psychoneuroendocrinology, February 1 2020, 104599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2020.104599

Highlights
• SAM system and HPA axis reactivity predict future health and disease outcomes
• Exaggerated and blunted responses predict different health and disease outcomes
• Reactivity-related health and disease outcomes are both physical and mental
• Intermediate stress responses (“Goldilocks” responses) may be the most adaptive
• A “bidirectional multi-system reactivity hypothesis” is proposed

Abstract
Background Acute psychological stress activates the sympatho-adrenal medullary (SAM) system and hypothalamo-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. The relevance of this stress reactivity to long-term health and disease outcomes is of great importance. We examined prospective studies in apparently healthy adults to test the hypothesis that the magnitude of the response to acute psychological stress in healthy adults is related to future health and disease outcomes.

Methods We searched Medline Complete, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete and Embase up to 15 Aug 2019. Included studies were peer-reviewed, English-language, prospective studies in apparently healthy adults. The exposure was acute psychological stress reactivity (SAM system or HPA axis) at baseline. The outcome was any health or disease outcome at follow-up after ≥ 1 year.

Results We identified 1,719 papers through database searching and 1 additional paper through other sources. Forty-seven papers met our criteria including 32,866 participants (range 30 – 4100) with 1-23 years of follow-up. Overall, one third (32%; 83/263) of all reported findings were significant and two thirds (68%; 180/263) were null. With regard to the significant findings, both exaggerated (i.e. high) and blunted (i.e. low) stress reactivity of both the SAM system and the HPA axis at baseline were related to health and disease outcomes at follow-up. Exaggerated stress reactivity at baseline predicted an increase in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and decreased telomere length at follow-up. In contrast, blunted stress reactivity predicted future increased adiposity and obesity, more depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms, greater illness frequency, musculoskeletal pain and regulatory T-Cell percentage, poorer cognitive ability, poorer self-reported health and physical disability and lower bone mass.

Conclusion Exaggerated and blunted SAM system and HPA axis stress reactivity predicted distinct physical and mental health and disease outcomes over time. Results from prospective studies consistently indicate stress reactivity as a predictor for future health and disease outcomes. Dysregulation of stress reactivity may represent a mechanism by which psychological stress contributes to the development of future health and disease outcomes.

Keywords: acute stressblood pressureheart rateepinephrinenorepinephrinecortisolsympatho-adrenal medullary systemhypothalamo-pituitary adrenal axishealth outcomesdisease outcomes

When honest people cheat, and cheaters are honest: Cognitive control processes override our moral default

When honest people cheat, and cheaters are honest: Cognitive control processes override our moral default. Sebastian P.H. Speer, Ale Smidts, Maarten A.S. Boksem. bioRxiv, Jan 24 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.907634

Abstract: Every day, we are faced with the conflict between the temptation to cheat for financial gains and maintaining a positive image of ourselves as being a ‘good person’. While it has been proposed that cognitive control is needed to mediate this conflict between reward and our moral self-image, the exact role of cognitive control in (dis)honesty remains elusive. Here, we identify this role, by investigating the neural mechanism underlying cheating. We developed a novel task which allows for inconspicuously measuring spontaneous cheating on a trial-by-trial basis in the MRI scanner. We found that activity in the Nucleus Accumbens promotes cheating, particularly for individuals who cheat a lot, while a network consisting of Posterior Cingulate Cortex, Temporoparietal Junction and Medial Prefrontal Cortex promotes honesty, particularly in individuals who are generally honest. Finally, activity in areas associated with Cognitive Control (Anterior Cingulate Cortex and Inferior Frontal Gyrus) helped dishonest participants to be honest, whereas it promoted cheating for honest participants. Thus, our results suggest that cognitive control is not needed to be honest or dishonest per se, but that it depends on an individual’s moral default.

Highly educated parents are more able to preserve their family's elite status in the next generation

The social and genetic inheritance of educational attainment: Genes, parental education, and educational expansion. Meng-Jung Lin. Social Science Research, Volume 86, February 2020, 102387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.102387

Abstract: Recently, several genome-wide association studies of educational attainment have found education-related genetic variants and enabled the integration of human inheritance into social research. This study incorporates the newest education polygenic score (Lee et al., 2018) into sociological research, and tests three gene-environment interaction hypotheses on status attainment. Using the Health and Retirement Study (N = 7599), I report three findings. First, a standard deviation increase in the education polygenic score is associated with a 58% increase in the likelihood of advancing to the next level of education, while a standard deviation increase in parental education results in a 53% increase. Second, supporting the Saunders hypothesis, the genetic effect becomes 11% smaller when parental education is one standard deviation higher, indicating that highly educated parents are more able to preserve their family's elite status in the next generation. Finally, the genetic effect is slightly greater for the younger cohort (1942–59) than the older cohort (1920–41). The findings strengthen the existing literature on the social influences in helping children achieve their innate talents.

Keywords: Educational attainmentParental educationCohortGene-environment interactionEducational expansion in higher education

People do not realize that failures contain useful information; therefore, people undershare failures in and beyond organizations settings

Hidden failures. Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 157, March 2020, Pages 57-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.11.007

Highlights
• People do not realize that failures contain useful information.
• Therefore, people undershare failures in and beyond organizations settings.
• Highlighting the information in failure makes people more likely to share it.

Abstract: Failure often contains useful information, yet across five studies involving 11 separate samples (N = 1238), people were reluctant to share this information with others. First, using a novel experimental paradigm, we found that participants consistently undershared failure—relative to success and a no-feedback experience—even though failure contained objectively more information than these comparison experiences. Second, this reluctance to share failure generalized to professional experiences. Teachers in the field were less likely to share information gleaned from failure than information gleaned from success, and employees were less likely to share lessons gleaned from failed versus successful attempts to concentrate at work. Why are people reluctant to share failure? Across experimental and professional failures, people did not realize that failure contained useful information. The current investigation illuminates an erroneous belief and the asymmetrical world of information it produces: one where failures are common in private, but hidden in public.

Keywords: SharingFailureInformationSuccessKnowledge transfer