Emotional responses and aggressive sentiments toward self-targeting and other-targeting moral violations: Disgust, Anger, Aggression, Physical Strength & Physical Attractiveness

Tybur, J. M., Molho, C., Camak, B., Dores Cruz, T., Singh, G. D., & Zwicker, M. (2020). Disgust, Anger, and Aggression: Further Tests of the Equivalence of Moral Emotions. Collabra: Psychology, 6(1), 34. http://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.349

Abstract: People often report disgust toward moral violations. Some perspectives posit that this disgust is indistinct from anger. Here, we replicate and extend recent work suggesting that disgust and anger toward moral violations are in fact distinct in terms of the situations in which they are activated and their correspondence with aggressive sentiments. We tested three hypotheses concerning emotional responses to moral violations: (1) disgust is associated with lower-cost, indirectly aggressive motives (e.g., gossip and social exclusion), whereas anger is associated with higher-cost, directly aggressive motives (e.g., physical violence); (2) disgust is higher toward violations affecting others than it is toward violations affecting the self, and anger is higher toward violations affecting the self than it is toward violations affecting others; and (3) abilities to inflict costs on or withhold benefits from others (measured via physical strength and physical attractiveness, respectively) relate to anger, but not to disgust. These hypotheses were tested in a within-subjects study in which 233 participants came to the lab twice and reported their emotional responses and aggressive sentiments toward self-targeting and other-targeting moral violations. Participants’ upper body strength and physical attractiveness were also measured with a dynamometer and photograph ratings, respectively. The first two hypotheses were supported – disgust (but not anger) was related to indirect aggression whereas anger (but not disgust) was related to direct aggression, and disgust was higher toward other-targeting violations whereas anger was higher toward self-targeting violations. However, physical strength and physical attractiveness were unrelated to anger or disgust or to endorsements of direct or indirect aggression.

Keywords: disgust , anger , morality , aggression , punishment

Discussion

Studies using three different approaches have now found that anger and disgust toward moral violations differentially vary as a function of who is victimized by the transgression: one asked participants to verbally report the degree to which they felt moral disgust and the degree to which they felt anger (Hutcherson & Gross, 2011); one asked participants to verbally report the degree to which they felt disgust (importantly, without the term “moral”) and the degree to which they felt anger (Study 2; Molho et al., 2017); and, with this study included, six have asked participants how well facial expressions of disgust and facial expressions of anger match their feelings (Studies 1–3, Lopez et al., 2019; Studies 1 and 4, Molho et al., 2017). Of course, a finding’s frequency in the literature is not necessarily diagnostic of its truth, since file drawers can be filled with null findings and methodological variety across studies can mask the unreliability of an effect (Pashler & Harris, 2012). Given that the current study followed a pre-registered protocol in replicating one of these earlier studies (albeit with a within-subjects rather than between-subjects design), results should increase our confidence in the distinct relationships between disgust and anger and different types of aggression, as well as distinct relationships between moral violation target and anger versus disgust.

The novel finding afforded by our within-subjects design suggests that individuals who tend to be disgusted by moral violations also tend to endorse indirect aggression, but that within-person variation in disgust does not relate to within-person variation in indirect aggression. In contrast, both within- and between-participant variance in anger related to direct aggression. Said differently: the type of people who respond to moral violations with more disgust also tend to endorse greater indirect aggression, but greater disgust within an individual does not relate to greater indirect aggression sentiments. Naturally, these findings should be interpreted tentatively, both given their exploratory nature and given that we only assessed emotional responses and aggression twice. Nevertheless, they might suggest that the relationship between disgust and aggression is less dose-dependent than is the relationship between anger and aggression. That is, a little bit of disgust might have a similar effect on indirect aggression as a lot of disgust, whereas a little bit of anger might have less of an effect on indirect aggression than a lot of anger.

The degree to which disgust is expressed or experienced in response to moral violations across cultures is debated (compare Curtis and Biran, 2001, and Haidt, Rozin, McCauley, and Imada, 1997, with Han et al., 2016). The current study is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to find distinct relationships between disgust and anger and distinct types of aggression outside of the U.S. Such findings suggest that these relationships are not limited to the U.S. or to (native) English-speaking populations. Of course, the Netherlands and the U.S. are both Western, educated, developed nations that speak Germanic languages. Replications across more varied nations can usefully inform the degree to which these distinctions between disgust and anger generalize across cultures.

Implications for the recalibration theory of anger

Multiple studies have lent support to the hypothesis that stronger and more attractive individuals are more prone to anger and have a greater history of success in conflicts. Based on this literature, we proposed that anger – but not disgust – toward moral violations would covary with strength and attractiveness. Our results were inconsistent with both this novel hypothesis and with previous findings. That said, while the 95% confidence interval for the correlation between men’s strength and anger proneness overlapped with zero, it also included r = .27, the correlation we estimated based on our literature review. Hence, the apparent difference between conclusions from this study and others does not offer strong evidence for a smaller (or null) relationship between strength and anger proneness in this population relative to other populations. Nevertheless, the relationship between physical strength and anger proneness might vary across cultural contexts (to the point of it being weaker or equal to zero in the population from which we sampled here), as suggested by Sell and colleagues (2009). In Dutch society, physical strength might afford less ability to inflict costs on others than in U.S. society (or in Aka society, where physical strength is also associated with a history of aggression, as reported in one study; Hess et al., 2010), perhaps due to greater social sanctioning of aggressive individuals and, relatedly, greater reliance on centralized authorities to solve disputes (Pinker, 2011). A recent study of men from Scotland and Germany – societies more similar to the Netherlands than the U.S. in terms of violence – similarly found little evidence for a relationship between strength and anger proneness (Von Borell et al., 2019). Ultimately, given the lack of replication of the finding that strength relates to anger proneness, we hesitate to abandon the hypothesis that strength differentially relates to anger and disgust. We recommend further tests of this idea, perhaps in other locations that have detected relationships between strength and anger proneness (e.g., the United States).

Limitations and future directions

Naturally, multiple limitations apply to the current findings. We discuss three notable ones. First, data were collected from a relatively affluent sample of young Dutch participants. As noted above, some of the relationships observed in the current study might not be generalizable to other populations. Second, the single-item measures of emotion based on posed facial expressions are noisy. Imprecision in this measure might attenuate effect size, and results using this type of measure might not generalize to other measures of emotion (e.g., measurements of facial expression; verbal self-reports). Third, participants reported hypothetical responses to hypothetical moral violations. The extent to which these responses – in terms of emotion or aggression – would generalize to behaviors in more ecologically valid conditions is an open question. Behavioral studies report that, in contrast to the strong sentiments to directly aggress against moral transgressors in third-party settings described here, people rarely directly aggress to help others (Pedersen et al., 2019). Further, some evidence suggests that responses to hypothetical moral transgressions and responses to actual moral transgressions are predicted by different factors (e.g., Baumert et al., 2013). Hence, null results (e.g., between formidability and aggression) should be interpreted tentatively, and relations between emotion and aggression should be investigated in non-hypothetical contexts.

Longitudinal studies do not appear to support substantive long-term links between aggressive game content & youth aggression; links appear better explained by methodological weaknesses & researcher expectancy effects

Do longitudinal studies support long-term relationships between aggressive game play and youth aggressive behaviour? A meta-analytic examination. Aaron Drummond, James D. Sauer and Christopher J. Ferguson. Royal Society Open Science, July 22 2020. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200373

Abstract: Whether video games with aggressive content contribute to aggressive behaviour in youth has been a matter of contention for decades. Recent re-evaluation of experimental evidence suggests that the literature suffers from publication bias, and that experimental studies are unable to demonstrate compelling short-term effects of aggressive game content on aggression. Long-term effects may still be plausible, if less-systematic short-term effects accumulate into systematic effects over time. However, longitudinal studies vary considerably in regard to whether they indicate long-term effects or not, and few analyses have considered what methodological factors may explain this heterogeneity in outcomes. The current meta-analysis included 28 independent samples including approximately 21 000 youth. Results revealed an overall effect size for this population of studies (r = 0.059) with no evidence of publication bias. Effect sizes were smaller for longer longitudinal periods, calling into question theories of accumulated effects, and effect sizes were lower for better-designed studies and those with less evidence for researcher expectancy effects. In exploratory analyses, studies with more best practices were statistically indistinguishable from zero (r = 0.012, 95% confidence interval: −0.010, 0.034). Overall, longitudinal studies do not appear to support substantive long-term links between aggressive game content and youth aggression. Correlations between aggressive game content and youth aggression appear better explained by methodological weaknesses and researcher expectancy effects than true effects in the real world.

4. Discussion

Experimental investigations of the short-term effects of aggressive game content on player aggression produce inconsistent results [2]. As can now be seen, both an initial meta-analysis without much consideration of methodological moderators [9] and the current, updated meta-analysis suggest that effects fall below the r = 0.10 benchmark for a small effect. Publication bias indicators yielded no evidence of publication bias. Thus, current research is unable to support the hypothesis that violent video games have a meaningful long-term predictive impact on youth aggression. However, a number of findings merit more explicit consideration.

4.1. How to interpret weak effects

First, as noted, the overall effect of aggressive game content on behavioural aggression was below our preregistered cut-off for a practically meaningful effect (and the traditional cut-off to be considered small). This brings us to acknowledge one weakness of meta-analysis in general, namely the focus on statistical significance. We observe that, for years, scholars have acknowledged that ‘statistical significance’ is a poor benchmark for theory support [37] yet psychologists often naively rely upon it when making decisions. We argue that, particularly in highly powerful analyses such as meta-analysis, the concept of statistical significance becomes irrelevant as almost everything is statistically significant. Small effects, even where statistically significant, are often explained through methodological noise such as common method variance, demand characteristics or single-responder bias. Indeed, in our study we find that effect sizes are largely inflated through issues such as poorly standardized and validated measures of both aggression and violent game content. As such, relying on ‘statistical significance’ can give scholars an inflated sense of confidence in their hypotheses and render the concept of ‘effect size’ little more than window dressing, where any effect size, no matter how small, can be interpreted as supporting the hypothesis.

We acknowledge that our adoption of the r = 0.10 standard is likely to stimulate debate, which we believe to be important and welcome. Although we adopted the 0.10 standard suggested by Przybylski & Weinstein [10], one of the authors has previously suggested that an even higher standard of 0.20 may be necessary for greater confidence in the validity of effects [38] though the origins of such concerns about over-reliance on statistical significance and over-interpretation of weak effects stretches back decades. As expressed by Lykken [39, p. 153] ‘the effects of common method are often as strong as or stronger than those produced by the actual variables of interest’. This raises the question of to what degree we can have confidence that observed effect sizes reflect the relationship of interest as opposed to research artefacts. To be fair, some scholars do argue for interpretation of much lower effect sizes, such as r = 0.05 [40], though it is important that a key phrase in this argumentation is noted: ‘Our analysis is based on a presumption that the effect size in question is, in fact, reliably estimated’ [40, p. 163]. Our observation is that this assumption appears to have been demonstrated to be false for this field of research and, with that in mind, a higher threshold of scrutiny is warranted. Funder and Ozer's argument also relies on effects accumulating over time, whereas our analysis found the opposite, that longer time-intervals were associated with smaller effect sizes. Our concerns are less about the issue that some effects may be of trivial importance (though there is that), but rather that some observed effect sizes do not index genuine effects of interest at all, being instead the product of systematic methodological limitations. Naturally, we do not suggest that our r = 0.10 threshold is the end of this debate. Further data may suggest that this number needs be revised either upwards or downwards (we suspect the former more likely than the latter). Standards may need to be flexible given the differences in rigor across different fields, or even across prior assumptions about the size of effect one expects to see. For example, there is a rough precedent for r = 0.10 from another meta-analysis of aggression and empathy wherein weak effect sizes results (r = 0.11) were interpreted as not hypothesis supportive [41]. The authors note this could be owing to either weaknesses in the theory or measurement problems (or both) and we agree those are both worthwhile issues to consider. Our observation that standardized and validated measures tend to produce weaker effects for this field, however, would appear to diminish the possibility for measurement attenuation as a driving factor of observed weak effect sizes. This cautious interpretation of weak effect sizes has precedent, as well, among meta-analyses of violent games. For instance, an earlier meta-analysis found larger effect sizes (r = 0.15), but based on methodological and theoretical issues identified in the field, interpreted this as non-convincing [42].

The adoption of the r = 0.10 standard also appears consistent with the ‘smallest effect sizes of interest’ (SESOI) approach. From this perspective, an SESOI can be developed based on multiple criteria including what is theoretically relevant, what prior literature has suggested is an important effect size, what effect sizes are considered important based on established (though ultimately arbitrary) criteria, and the degree to which resources may be burned on an effect without seeing tangible outcomes [43]. From this approach, we can see the r = 0.10 standard is defensible. Both Orben and Przybylski, as well as earlier standards set by Cohen [21], apply the 0.10 standard (though we acknowledge other scholars endorse either higher or lower standards). Further, previous meta-analyses have suggested effects should be in the range of 0.20–0.30 [44], so any observed effects under 0.10 would represent an appreciable decline in effect size. Lastly, as we observe significant methodological issues have the potential to inflate effect size estimates, as also noted by Przybylski and Weinstein, setting an interpretive threshold can help reduce misinterpretation of weak, possibly misleading results. We note our CI does not cross the 0.10 threshold and, as such, feel confident in interpreting that the threshold for interpreting the longitudinal data as meaningful has not been met.

These debates regarding the interpretation of small effect sizes exist in other realms as well. This is particularly true when large samples may result in many ‘statistically significant’ relationships between variables that bear little actual relationship to each other. For instance, one recent study linked emotional diversity to mental and physical health in two samples totalling 37 000 relying on effect sizes generally in the range of r = 0.10 and lower (some as low as r = 0.02) [45]. Reflecting our concerns here, this interpretation was criticized by other scholars who argued such weak findings were more like the product of statistical artefacts than genuine effects of interest [46]. Regarding the potential perils of misleading results in large samples, the first author of that critique states (N. Brown 2020, personal communication) ‘A large sample size is a good thing, but only if used to improve the precision of effect estimates, not to prove that cats equal dogs, p < 0.05’. We agree with this assessment. Naturally, our critique is not of the use of large samples, which we wholeheartedly endorse, but rather the lack of consideration for potential statistical ‘noise’ (demand characteristics, single-responder bias, common method variance, researcher expectancy effects, mischievous responding, etc.), and how these can cause misleading results (for a specific, discovered example, see [47]).

Alternatively, the issue could be considered from the ‘crud factor’ perspective of Meehl [48]. From this perspective, tiny effects are real though only in the sense that every low-level variable is correlated to every other low-level variable to some degree (i.e. the r = 0.00 is rarely strictly true). This alternative explanation returns the dialogue to that of triviality. If every variable is correlated to every other variable to a tiny degree and in a way that will become statistically significant in large samples, it is still valuable to understand which relationships rise above this ‘crud’ and are worthy of investigation or policy interventions. Otherwise, the argument that video games might be restricted to promote youth mental health may be no more critical than, quite literally, arguing for the restriction of potatoes or eyeglasses for the same reason [49].

We welcome debate on this issue and challenges to our own position. We believe that this is a discussion worth having and one which extends beyond video game research.

4.2. Other issues

Second, we find no evidence for the assertion that these small effects might accumulate over time. The negative association between the length of the longitudinal period and the size of the effect speaks directly against theories of accumulated effects. Indeed, we found that longer longitudinal periods were associated with smaller effect sizes, not larger, directly contradicting the accumulation narrative. This is consistent with older meta-analyses of experimental studies which, likewise, found that longer exposure times were associated with weaker effects [42]. However, this differed from a previous meta-analysis that found some evidence for a positive association between longitudinal time and effect size [9]. However, the Prescott et al. meta-analysis found this effect only for fixed effects analyses, not for random effects, and random effects would probably have been the more appropriate model given heterogeneity in the data. Further, longitudinal time was treated as a 3-part categorical variable rather than a more appropriate continuous variable, and this may have caused statistical artefacts. Our analysis also includes several newer longitudinal studies not included with Prescott et al. As to why longitudinal length is associated with reduced effect size, we can think of two categories of explanation. First, there is a genuine, small effect of interest, but this is relatively short-lived and does not accumulate. Second, there is not a genuine effect of interest and methodological issues such as demand characteristics or mischievous responding tend to have greater impact on short-term outcomes than long. Given our observations about widespread methodological limitations in this field and their impact on effect size, we suspect the latter option is more likely. As such, for this area at least, we recommend against using this narrative, and suspect it should be used more cautiously in other areas as well unless directly demonstrated through empirical studies.

Third, we demonstrate that study quality issues do matter. In particular, the use of standardized and well-validated measures matters. Specifically, the use of high-quality measures was associated with reduced effect sizes. This observation also undercuts claims in a previous meta-analysis for ethnic differences in video game effects [9]. In particular, studies with Latino participants were mostly done with a population from Laredo, Texas, and used highly validated measures such as the Child Behaviour Checklist. Thus, Latino ethnicity was conflated with highly validated, standardized aggression measures. Only one other study involved Hispanics, Caucasian Americans and African Americans, but this study both used a non-standard video game assessment, and an unstandardized aggression measure, and switched the psychometrics of the aggression measure in the final time point, making longitudinal control difficult [50]. As such, this study is not of a quality sufficient to examine for ethnic differences. Given there are no obvious reasons to think Latinos are immune to game effects, whereas non-Latinos are vulnerable, it is more parsimonious to conclude that differences in the quality of measures used were responsible for the observed ethnic differences.

Studies which were of higher quality (scoring above the median in best practices) returned an effect size statistically indistinguishable from zero. This suggests that some effects may be driven by lower quality practices that may inflate some effect sizes. It is worth noting too that issues such as the use of standardized and validated outcomes and other best practices tend to correspond with less citation bias. As such, concerns about best practices and researcher allegiances tend to overlap.

Lastly, studies evidencing citation bias had higher effect sizes than those that did not demonstrate citation bias. This may be an indication of researcher expectancy effects. As such, we recommend increased use of preregistration in empirical studies.

It is worth noting that our effect size of r = 0.059 may not appear very different from the controlled effect size of r = 0.078 obtained by Prescott and colleagues. However, this represents a reduction in explained variance from 0.608% to 0.348%. This is a reduction of approximately 43% of explained variance (0.348/0.608). Granted this reduction would seem more dramatic had the original figure of r = 0.078 been larger. As meta-analyses on violent video games have been repeated over time, there appears to be a consistent downwards tendency in their point estimates, declining from 0.15 in early estimates to 0.10 in uncontrolled and 0.078 in controlled longitudinal estimates. Our results show further reduction towards an effect size of 0 in a preregistered longitudinal meta-analysis employing theoretically relevant controls. Despite disagreement about where the precise line of the smallest effect of interest may be, downward trends in the meta-analytic point estimates over time suggest we need to, as a field, grapple with precisely where an effect becomes too small to be considered practically meaningful or risk overstating the importance of our findings.

Further, we observe that few studies were preregistered. Preregistration can be one means by which research expectancy effects can be reduced. Consistent with observations about upward bias in meta-analyses in other realms, it appears that, across study types, preregistered analyses have been much less likely to find results in support of the video game violence hypotheses than non-preregistered studies. Our meta-analysis is, to our knowledge, the first preregistered meta-analysis in this realm. Preregistration is seldom perfect, of course, and we recognize there will always be some debate and subjectivity in terms of extracting the ideal effect size that best represents a hypothesis; but preregistration of both individual studies and meta-analyses can help make decisions clearer and reduce researcher subjectivity at least partially.

At this juncture, we observe that meta-analytic studies now routinely find that the long-term impacts of violent games on youth aggression are near zero, with larger effects sizes typically associated with methodological quality issues. In some cases, overreliance on statistical significance in meta-analysis may have masked this poor showing for longitudinal studies. We call on both individual scholars as well as professional guilds such as the American Psychological Association to be more forthcoming about the extremely small observed relationship in longitudinal studies between violent games and youth aggression.

Financial Decision Making and Individual Dispositions: Individual with "nice" personality traits borrow more money and have lower amounts of liquid savings

Sekścińska K., Markiewicz Ł. (2020) Financial Decision Making and Individual Dispositions. In: Zaleskiewicz T., Traczyk J. (eds) Psychological Perspectives on Financial Decision Making. Springer, July 22 2020. https://rd.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-45500-2_7

Abstract: Understanding who takes particular financial decisions, and under which conditions, has clear implications both for decision-makers’ well-being and for financial advisors (e.g., investment and credit advisors). Improving understanding in this area would be helpful in constructing clients’ profiles and recommending adequate financial instruments to them in accordance with the requirements of the markets in financial instruments directive in Europe (European Union Markets in Financial Instruments Directive—MiFID II). Difficulties in matching people’s dispositions with financial products arise from the ways in which the influences of people’s dispositions on their financial decision-making interact with specific contexts. Thus, the natural expectation that certain relationships observed for one financial decision (e.g., investing) will generalize to other similar types of decision (e.g., saving), or even to the same type of decision (another investing decision) taken at another point in time, is not always borne out as decisions are taken in different contexts. In this chapter, we present an extensive review of research on relationships between individual dispositions and decisions involving financial risk (saving, investing, borrowing, and cheating) towards the end of analyzing the stability and consistency of the role of personality dispositions across various financial domains and between various decision contexts. We conclude that the role of individual dispositions in explaining various financial behaviors, and different aspects of the same financial behavior, often varies with context, supporting the idea that interactive models can describe the influence of personal and situational factors on financial decision-making. Thus, to correctly understand the role of individual dispositions, further studies should verify how situational and contextual factors modify individual factors’ influence on financial decision-making.

Keywords: Saving Investing Cheating Financial risk Personality Big Five Dark triad Self-control Motivation Time perspectives

From 2013... . Hegelian-Marxist Pornology, Lack of Courage, and Babbling Theorizing

Pornodialectics: From Coming to Becoming. Bradley Tuck. One+One Issue 10. Feb 25 2013. https://www.academia.edu/3723924/

Introduction:

In March 2003, the University of Alabama hosted a debate between pornographer-multimedia star Ron Jeremy and new anti-pornography activist Susan B. Cole. Sounds controversial. Yet students were far from outraged that a porn star had been elevated to an expert panellist at a university event, even on a moderately conservative southern campus. Nor were any feminist activists on campus rallying to Cole’s side. Instead Jeremy was greeted with cheers from students dressed in t-shirts boasting “I love porn,” while Cole was booed and jeered at by the audience. Despite Cole’s careful insistence that she was not opposed to sex and wasn’t a member of the “sex police,” she was mocked for arguing that pornography exploits women. During the panel debate, which was mostly a forum for Jeremy to boast about the benefits of porn and “having a party,” students took the opportunity to ask Cole questions like, “what’s your fucking problem?”
        - Pamela Paul, Pornified p.113

[Pornified: How Pornography Is Transforming Our Lives, Our Relationships, and Our Families. 2007. https://www.amazon.com/Pornified-Pornography-Transforming-Relationships-Families-ebook/dp/B003J5UIWI]

Last section:

16.   Pornodialectics demands that we challenge the means of production, the exploitation of the capitalist system and even capitalism itself. It opposes the oppressive and exploitative nature of the free-market to fairer and more participatory economics. It encourages the equality, health and self-determination of all those who work on it. It does not value any individual over another and encourages the economic equality of each of its members. We may say that the telos of pornodialectics is inherently communistic, we look forward to the genuinely universal emancipatory society, where the fruits of life and love are shared in common. We, therefore, follow in the footsteps of the great gay communists of the 70s. As Mario Mieli writes, “The struggle for communism today must find expression, among other things, in the negation of the heterosexual Norm that is based on the repression of Eros and is essential for maintaining the rule of capital over the species. The ‘perversions’, and homosexuality in particular, are a rebellion against the subjugation of sexuality by the established order, against the almost total enslavement of eroticism (repressed or repressively desublimated) to the ‘performance principle’, to production and reproduction (of labour-power).” 4 We must embark upon a two pronged process. A cultural challenge of the conservative, libertarian and heteronormative expectations and conventions through the creation of new values and practices, but integrated within newly arising economic and political demands. The opposition to subjugation, labour and exploitation must be conjoined with a new aspiration towards pleasure beyond the capitalistic dichotomy of work and leisure (consumerism). Pornodialectics challenges the means of production and the normative curtailment of man’s potential to re-open the process of man’s continual becoming.

---
My comments: Why Bradley thinks he is so transgressive, dynamic, and post-modern? He says "The ‘perversions’, and homosexuality in particular, are a rebellion," but he doesn't have the courage to mention gay paederasty, which is more rebellious and confronts more directly "heterosexual Norm."

Bradley, you are ducking the big questions, the big fights, the great sexual traditions.

Are there means to help optimize the (science, technology, and enterprise) components of Earth System predictability research? Would a top-down Systems-of-Systems design & development approach help advance research?

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2020. Earth System Predictability Research and Development: Proceedings of a Workshop in Brief. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, Jul 2020. https://doi.org/10.17226/25861

Panelist Ruby Leung, Department of Energy Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, emphasized that model biases are limiting understanding of Earth system predictability and the ability to make predictions. [Jean-Francois] Lamarque agreed, pointing out that several of these biases have been present in climate models for decades, but the reasons for them are not well understood. Improving understanding of how to resolve these biases has not been a focus of climate model intercomparison efforts.

Increasing model resolution could be a game changer in how persistent model biases and improving predictability are addressed, said Leung, because it would allow simulation of subgrid-scale processes that are currently parameterized. Furthermore, fully representing subgrid moist convection processes could help address the lack of variability or chaotic behavior in the models that results in misrepresentation of the signal-to-noise ratio used to estimate predictability. Similarly, fully simulating mesoscale eddies could improve modeling of air-sea interactions that contribute to subseasonal-to-interannual predictability.

Multi-disciplinary teams of observationalists, modelers, software engineers, computational scientists, and data analysts are needed to make progress in Earth system modeling, said Lamarque.


NEW RESEARCH FRAMEWORK FOR PRACTICABLE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY

Development of a national approach and strategy to knit together predictability-focused theoretical work with observational, modeling, and technology research is an imperative for advancing practicable prediction, said session chair Jenni Evans, The Pennsylvania State University. This session explored opportunities to break down compartmentalization of communities. By making convergent research the new normal, and developing and sustaining a creative workforce, a new foundation on the science and applications of Earth system predictability research can be created.

Duane Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, started off the session by suggesting the application of a more formal systems engineering approach (see Box 2), to break down the complexity of Earth system predictability into a coordinated and collaborative outcome-driven program. The need for a systems engineering approach stems from the sheer complexity of the questions and objectives being considered: Earth system science is complex, the technology and tools (including models and observations) are rapidly evolving, and the programmatic aspects of the enterprise (including civil, commercial and social) are challenging to optimally coordinate. Waliser argued that a system of systems (SoS) approach could be a way to judiciously integrate and evolve the underlying components to maximize value and societal impacts.

Waliser explained that the Earth system prediction enterprise could be roughly equated to a “collaborative” SoS (Box 2), one that has developed over the last 50 years on a somewhat ad-hoc basis. While this type of SoS tends to rely on a voluntary approach to coordination, it has yielded significant environmental forecast capabilities and decision support guidance. However, given the critical importance of Earth system prediction to the security and resilience of society, there may be reasons to consider moving to an SoS approach that would entail a more formal design and management process, in order to achieve future advances. Waliser posed the questions: “Are there means to help optimize the (science, technology, and enterprise) components? Would a top-down SoS design and development approach help advance Earth system predictability? Are there aspects of a systems engineering approach that would help to achieve an overall vision for Earth system prediction and the decision-support guidance it enables? Is there a need for a coordinating office or body that could direct effort and resources, one that takes into account the strengths and complementary elements of the various agencies and commercial enterprises that have a role and stake in contributing to this critical national capability?” To answer these questions, Waliser suggested assembling a team of systems engineering and Earth system prediction experts to assess the value of more formally engaging an SoS perspective to help guide the nation’s Earth systems predictability roadmap and prioritizations.

Panelist Paula Bontempi, NASA, highlighted the need for having a structure in place that integrates communities and avoids compartmentalization. Bontempi urged agencies to create opportunities that encourage disciplines, as well as scientists and managers, to work together towards common objectives. She said that one solution is to craft solicitations and competitions for federal research and development funding in ways that inspire the next generation to be creative in proposing ideas that break down compartmentalization.

Panelist Waleed Abdalati, NOAA/CIRES and University of Colorado at Boulder, reinforced the need to employ systems-level thinking. Abdalati spoke of the importance of a shared focus, shared vision, and shared strategy to empower agencies to prioritize a collective effort and move away from the sum of the parts approach for Earth systems predictability research. Abdalati said that agencies need to be liberated to do more than just play in the sandbox together; they need to build the sandbox together.

Panelist Chris Bretherton, University of Washington, reiterated the need for a coordinated interagency research agenda and identified other challenges to avoiding compartmentalization. To foster an environment of interdisciplinary research, it is important to have open, accessible, well-documented and publicized community models and data sets. An investment in software engineering is needed to make existing data and models as useful for interdisciplinary research as possible by lowering barriers to access. Furthermore, Bretherton advised clearly defining shared goals that naturally bring communities together.

Several panelists emphasized that achieving a new research framework to progress understanding of Earth system predictability requires an inspired next generation of scientists and engineers. Bretherton explained that students need to be educated on Earth system predictability as interdisciplinary research. According to Abdalati, to attract a talented workforce, a perception needs to prevail that this research is of utmost importance and is recognized and supported from leaders of all sectors of society.

Box 2: What is Systems Engineering? 

Systems engineering concentrates on understanding, designing, and managing complex systems, namely, systems of interworking components that synergistically work together to perform a useful function (e.g. spacecraft, robotics, software, manufacturing processes, communication systems, healthcare, defense, etc.). 

Systems engineering includes requirements development, logistics, team coordination, testing and evaluation, costs, reliability, work processes, optimization, risk management, and often the overlaps between technical and human systems. 

Systems of systems (SoS) can be defined by the degree to which it relies upon formal design and management processes: 

• Virtual SoS lack a central management authority and centrally recognized purpose but results in an emergent, useful behavior.
• Collaborative SoS involve voluntary actions by component systems to meet recognized central purposes.
• Acknowledged SoS have recognized central purposes, as well as a designated manager and resources, while component systems retain independence.
• Directed SoS entail an integrated SoS that is built and managed to meet specific purposes. 

Source: MITRE. 2014. Systems Engineering Guide: Collected Wisdom from MITRE’s Systems Engineering Experts. Bedford, MA: The MITRE Corporation.

All the 4 facets of justice sensitivity were moderately heritable (21%–33%) & the non-shared environmental factors accounted for the rest variations (67%–79%); sensitivity to others’ suffering is grounded upon genetic origin

Heritability of justice sensitivity. Wang,Yun 1,2,3 ; Luo,Yu 3,4 ; Wu, Shengtao 5 ; Zhou, Yuan. PsyChinaXiv, Jul 10 2020. http://psych.chinaxiv.org/abs/202007.00020

Abstract: Justice is one of fundamental principles in human evolution, and justice sensitivity, both from the proself perspective (e.g., as victim) and the prosocial perspective (e.g., as observer, beneficiary, and perpetrator), matters in mental wellness and social interaction. However, it remains unclear to what extent individual difference in justice sensitivity is influenced by genetic versus environmental factors. Using a sample with 244 twin pairs, the present research was an attempt to determine what extent genetic factor plays a role in the inter-individual difference of justice sensitivity as well as whether different facets of justice sensitivity, namely, proself and prosocial perspective, share common genetic basis. Results showed that (1) all the four facets of justice sensitivity were moderately heritable (21%–33%) and that the non-shared environmental factors accounted for the rest variations (67%–79%); (2) associations between the prosocial facets of justice sensitivity were driven by common genetics (rg: .50–.65) and non-shared environmental (re: .24–.65) influences, whereas no strong evidence supported a genetic correlation between proself and prosocial justice sensitivity. The current findings provide novel evidence that sensitivity to injustice, especially to others’ suffering, is fundamentally grounded upon genetic origin, thus shedding light on the nature and nurture aspects of justice behavior.

DOI：10.12074/202007.00020
Keywords: justice sensitivity; heritability; twin study; behavioral genetics

Children Are Not Losing Contact with Nature: They have less experience with traditional extensive farming activities, but have much more experience with nature, connected with recreational and field-trip activities

Are Children Actually Losing Contact with Nature, or Is It That Their Experiences Differ from Those of 120 years Ago? Petr Novotný et al. Environment and Behavior, July 1 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916520937457

Abstract: We compared the experience with nature of today’s children with data from the beginning of the 20th century to determine whether we can confirm a loss of experience and contribute to the description of changes in children’s relationship with nature. We used a questionnaire originally published in 1900 for this survey. Results from contemporary participants tested by ANOVA showed no difference in level of experience according to the age of the respondents. Comparing historical data with current data by a Z-test for proportions and Cohen’s h, we found a significant increase in contemporary children’s summary experiences. Although children of the 21st century have less experience with traditional extensive farming activities and biotechnologies, they have much more experience with nature, apparently connected with recreational and field-trip activities. We cannot confirm a decrease in experience among generations, on the contrary, we found a summary increase in experience.

Keywords: human-nature interactions, experience of nature, biophilia, historical comparison, nature-deficit disorder

From 2019... Resistance, Subversion, and the Absence of Religion in Traditional Societies

From 2019... Resistance, Subversion, and the Absence of Religion in Traditional Societies. June 2019. Benjamin Grant Purzycki, Richard Sosis. Jun 2019. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333618468

Description: How prevalent is religious doubt among the traditional, small-scale populations typically studied by anthropologists? Do traditional peoples resist religious mores? If so, how? Our chapter aims to answer these questions. We first consider the claim that some small-scale populations lack religion, or certain forms of religion, by examining several ethnographic case studies from around the world. We then discuss cases where populations incorporate subversion into religious traditions. We conclude by looking forward and recommending directions for future research on nonbelief and doubt among traditional populations.

Germany 2003-2017: Overall physical activity remained stable among youths in the past ten years, however, there is an ongoing trend towards organized forms of PA at the expense of unorganized sports and playing outside

The physical activity of children and adolescents in Germany 2003-2017: The MoMo-study. Steffen C. E. Schmidt ,Bastian Anedda,Alexander Burchartz,Doris Oriwol,Simon Kolb,Hagen Wäsche,Claudia Niessner,Alexander Woll. PLoS One, July 16, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236117

Abstract: With digitalization and virtual entertainment being the megatrends of the 21st century, there is reasonable concern about the role of physical activity (PA) in the daily life of children and adolescents. To identify risk-groups with insufficient PA and to guide interventions, continuous and representative tracking of PA is crucial. In this paper, representative PA data of children and adolescents from the Motorik-Modul (MoMo) baseline study (2003–2006, N = 4,528) is compared to those of Wave 2 (2014–2017, N = 3,708). Participants aged 4–17 were drawn out of 167 sample points in Germany and the data was weighted to ensure representativeness for Germany. Organized (sports clubs and schools) and unorganized (unorganized sports and playing outside) PA was measured by questionnaire and stratified by sex, age, and socioeconomic status. Contrary to common expectation, overall PA remained stable among youths in the past ten years, however, there is an ongoing trend towards organized forms of PA at the expense of unorganized sports and playing outside. Besides different trends in settings, there is inequality in PA distribution among socioeconomic status and gender, unequally pronounced in different settings.

4 Discussion

The MoMo Wave 2 data confirm the trend of decreasing unorganized PA and increasing organized PA among children and adolescents living in Germany. The results are consistent with the results of Wave 1 (2009–2012) data [8]. However, a slight overall increase in PA that has been found in the data from 2003 to 2012 [8] could not be confirmed. Additionally, a closer look at the settings and disadvantaged groups revealed significant, setting-specific socioeconomic inequalities in PA behavior that should be used to tailor target-group and setting-specific interventions.

4.1 Organized physical activity

Whereas time spent in curricular sports remained stable from 2003 to 2017, the overall time spent in extracurricular sports increased from 6.1 to 16.6 minutes per week. This finding verifies the trend we observed from Wave 1 data [8], evolving extracurricular activities to an important setting for organized PA in Germany. One reason for this development might be the extensive implementation of daytime schools in Germany in the last years. The fear of a "PA cannibalism" at the expense of PA in sports clubs with increasing PA in schools and other extracurricular activities [26] is not confirmed. However, this study shows evidence for a general PA cannibalism, but at the expense of unstructured PA. Boys reported slightly higher amounts of extracurricular PA in school compared to girls, especially at the age of 11 to 13, but mean differences between genders are small. Taking into account the apparent gender inequality in sports clubs, extracurricular sports could be used as a vehicle to promote PA among girls in the school setting.

Considering the 15-year trend from Baseline to Wave 2, an increase in participation rates from 53.5% to 60.0% and 89.4 to 99.1 minutes PA in sports clubs was observed. Official numbers from the DOSB also report relatively stable rates of sports club memberships during the 2000s and 2010s with rates peaking at 79.8% among 7-to-14-year-old boys and 61.1 among 7-to-14-year-old girls [10]. In sum, a total of 60.0% of children and adolescents living in Germany report to participate in PA in sports clubs (Table 1). Overall rates of participation in sports clubs peak as early as between the age of six to ten and then decline slowly until adulthood. This decline in PA participation during adulthood is also reported in Canadian studies [27, 28]. Studies with non-humans show that a decline in PA of up to 50% appears at the maturation from adolescence to adulthood in nearly every living being [29]. However, Farooq and colleagues stated in a recent study that PA declines as early as from the age of 7 years in western civilizations and that there was no evidence indicating a substantially smaller decline during childhood than during the transition between adolescence and adulthood [30]. Considering the overall average time spent with PA per week (Table 2) compared to PA participation rates, a decline is delayed to late adolescents, as training volumes increase with age which, in turn, compensate for drop-outs. However, sports clubs are still the most important setting for the PA of children and adolescents in Germany and become more important worldwide [31]. A critical question is how to foster the active participation of adults in sports clubs. Offering a broader range of sports, including new trend sports and sports-related activities, as well as age-appropriated forms of motivation and competition are just some of many possible examples for interventions in the setting sports club.

4.2 Unorganized physical activity & playing outside

Data from Wave 1 showed that in Germany, unorganized sports activity as well as playing outside decreased between 2003 and 2012. This decline could be confirmed by our recent Wave 2 data. Other international studies also reported a declining trend in active play [32]. Reviews state that active, unstructured play in developed countries is decreasing for various reasons, including increased screen time, safety concerns (e.g. traffic, stranger danger), emphasis on organized youth sports, and parental work [5]. Although studies show that PA, particularly unorganized activity, is an effective way to decrease obesity in children [33], active play is likely of light intensity and to date, still, the significance of light and/or incidental PA among children and adolescents, is widely unknown [5]. One promising approach in promoting unorganized PA such as playing outside or active commuting is to improve walkability [34]. Walkability is, in turn, linked to unorganized sports activity and outside play in children [34]. Even though, there is some evidence that active commuting is not, or even negatively linked to organized PA in children under 10 years of age [35]. However, it may be a source of unorganized PA for older children and adolescents, just because of the fact they cross and use playgrounds on their way [36].

4.3 Overall PA & socioeconomic inequalities

Our study shows that overall PA among children and adolescents in Germany did not decline significantly during the 2000s and 2010s, although this expectation was expressed in previous research [37]. Other national studies and previous research support this finding [7, 8]. Referring to international PA recommendations [4] overall PA is on an unsatisfying level in Germany [38]. Nevertheless, the signaled crisis in childhood PA [5, 6] did not get worse during the 2000s and 2010s in Germany and there is a lack of representative data from periods before 2000 to discuss earlier trends.

However, as our survey assessed mainly sports activity, shifts in light PA may have been unobserved in our study. A recent Norwegian study among a representative sample of 9-year-olds found, that the prevalence of children and adolescents meeting the Norwegian PA recommendations was similar in 2005–2006 and 2011–2012. Yet, their accelerometer data indicated that both children and adolescents substituted time spent in light PA for time spent sedentary [39].

The decrease of unorganized PA among children and adolescents since the beginning of this study is alarming and needs to be observed meticulously. It is yet unclear, whether the lack of unorganized PA can be compensated in organized settings with the expertise of trained instructors. Although, participants in sports clubs typically spend 40–50% of their time in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) [40] and intensities of PA during organized sports are relatively high compared to other settings [14, 41]. Current studies indicate that sports clubs become a more and more important source of PA all over the world [31] and sports club participants are more likely to meet PA recommendations (OR 2.4–6.4, [31]). The question of the pros and cons of a mainly structured and guided PA at the expense of unorganized playing outside becomes increasingly important and should be the focus of further experimental research.

Although there is not much change in the total amount of PA, previous research that focused on biological and environmental correlates [42], different settings [8], and socio-structural factors [43] revealed that there is social and environmental inequality in PA attendance and PA behavior in Germany. The SES has been identified as an important correlate of PA and a healthy lifestyle [5, 34]. Socioeconomic disparities in health behavior have been found by numerous studies all over the world and account for a large amount of PA inequality [44–46]. By analyzing different PA-relevant settings, the present study shows that these socioeconomic differences are not evenly pronounced in each setting. For example, there is no gender gap in curricular sports, and gender differences in extracurricular sports are small and age-dependent (Table 2). Adding the SES as a factor, our study shows that a prevalent gender gap in unorganized PA is mainly due to differences between gender among youths from families with low SES (Table 3) and can therefore not be generalized. In families with an intermediate SES, girls do even more unorganized PA compared to their male counterparts. The fact that different social groups participate in different types of settings provides the opportunity for target-group-specific interventions. An example would be the development of additional programs for extracurricular sports in schools utilizing cooperations between schools and sports clubs to reach out especially for girls from low SES families or girls with migration backgrounds. On the other hand, these setting-specific trends sharpen the scope of shifts in the importance of those settings. For example, the shift from unorganized PA to PA in sports clubs may leave boys from low SES families with lesser overall PA.

The large meta-analysis from Althoff et al. (2017) about PA data from smartphones found these inequalities in PA to be crucial for the prevalence of inactivity driven diseases such as overweight and obesity.

4.4 Strength and limitations

The present study is limited to its observational nature and we do not intend to infer causality from paralleled trends or significant correlations. The main goal of MoMo is to track and report PA and fitness of children and adolescents in a nationwide sample, and significant effort was put into collecting representative data from 167 sample points all over the country.

PA was assessed by self-reports. This method has various limitations including recall bias and social desirability. Measuring PA by objective methods such as accelerometers is more accurate in most types of PA, but is always limited to a short time interval, and unless a diary is added, the setting in which the PA took place is not captured. Since accelerometers capture any form of PA in a specific time frame, the correlation with self-reported habitual PA in specific settings is expected to be restricted, even when summarized. An accelerometer is also a very responsive tool towards socially desired behavior, and children drop it for some sports like swimming, martial arts, and sometimes even curricular sports in school. Using a questionnaire offered the chance to assess different types of exercise as well as other PA parameters like setting and sports club membership during a normal week, even when the person is, for example, on vacation or ill.

Mixed cyber aggressor-victims reported more social dominance and dating partners, and highly reactive cyber aggressor-victims reported more sexual partners, when compared to uninvolved peers

Social advantages and disadvantages associated with cyber aggression-victimization: A Latent Class Analysis. Kiana R. Lapierre, Andrew V. Dane. Computers in Human Behavior, July 20 2020, 106497, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2020.106497

Highlights
• Evolutionary functions apply to cyber aggression and victimization.
• Empirical analyses show groups involved in both cyber aggression and victimization.
• Cyber aggressive-victim groups differ in frequency of reactive aggression.
• Cyber aggression-victimization is associated with social advantages.
• Highly reactive cyber aggression-victimization is linked to social disadvantages.

Abstract: This study examines cyber aggression and cyber victimization from an evolutionary perspective, extending the literature by: (1) employing Latent Class Analysis to identify cyber aggression-victimization status groups using proactive and reactive cyber aggression, and cyber victimization, as indicators; and (2) examining whether cyber aggression-victimization status groups experience social advantages and disadvantages similar to those in traditional aggression research. In this study, a three-class model best described adolescents’ cyber aggression and victimization; in the sample of 400 adolescents ages 12–18, 79.4% were uninvolved, 13.1% were mixed cyber aggressor-victims (moderate proactive and reactive cyber aggression, and cyber victimization), and 7.4% were highly reactive cyber aggressor-victims (moderate proactive cyber aggression and cyber victimization, but high reactive cyber aggression). These groups contrast with those found in empirical traditional aggression research as pure cyber aggressors and cyber victims were not identified. Consistent with evolutionary theory and aggression research that suggest it has adaptive functions, mixed cyber aggressor-victims reported more social dominance and dating partners, and highly reactive cyber aggressor-victims reported more sexual partners, when compared to uninvolved peers. However, highly reactive cyber aggressor-victims also reported more friendship anxiety and less implicit social power than the mixed and uninvolved group, consistent with traditional research suggesting that reactive aggression is more strongly linked to social disadvantages and less strongly linked to social advantages, than is proactive aggression. Although cyber aggression is a relatively new form of aggression, an evolutionary perspective can illuminate why it continues to be a social problem despite intervention efforts.

Keywords: Proactive cyber aggressionReactive cyber aggressionCyber victimizationEvolutionary perspective