In cognitive diagnosis models, the condensation rule reflects how latent attributes influence individuals’ observed item responses; in practice, multiple condensation rules may be involved in an item simultaneously

Zhan, Peida. 2020. “Deterministic-inputs, Noisy Mixed Modeling for Identifying Coexisting Condensation Rules.” PsyArXiv. February 12. doi:10.31234/osf.io/qwx2m

Abstract: In cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs), the condensation rule reflects how latent attributes influence individuals’ observed item responses. In practice, multiple condensation rules may be involved in an item simultaneously, which indicates that the contribution of required attributes to the correct item response probability follows multiple condensation rules with different proportions. To consider the coexisting condensation rules while keeping the interpretability of model parameters, this study proposed the deterministic-inputs, noisy mixed (DINMix) model. Two simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of the proposed model. The results indicate that the model parameters for the DINMix model can be well recovered, and the DINMix model can accurately identify coexisting condensation rules. An empirical example was also analyzed to illustrate the applicability and advantages of the proposed model.

6. Summary and Discussion
The condensation rule describes the logical relationship between the required attributes and the item response. When an item contains coexisting condensation rules, it means that the contribution of required attributes to the correct item response probability follows multiple condensation rules with different proportions. Coexisting condensation rules reflect the complexity of cognitive processes in problem-solving. To take into account coexisting condensation rules while keeping the interpretability of model parameters, this study proposed the DINMix model. Two simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of the proposed model. The simulation results indicate that (a) the model parameters for the DINMix model can be well recovered, especially in the conditions with a larger sample, longer test length, and higher item quality; (b) the DINMix model can adaptively and accurately identify coexisting condensation rules, either existing simultaneously in an item or existing separately in multiple items. An empirical example was also analyzed to illustrate the applicability and advantages of the proposed model.

As aforementioned, the DINMix model can be viewed as a constraint model from the GDINA model after some parameter transformations. Thus, the number of item parameters of the DINMix model is larger than that of the reduced models but smaller than that of the general models. For example, in the simulated condition in simulation Study 2, there were 60, 60, 60, 100, and 140 items parameters for the DINA, DINO, DINR, DINMix, and GDINA models, respectively. To explore the differences between the performance of the DINMix and GDINA models, we also used the GDINA model to conduct a simple analysis of the data in simulation Study 2, based on the GDINA package (Ma & de la Torre, 2020) in R software. The results (see Tables S4 and S5 in online supplements) indicate that the performance of the DINMix and GDINA models was almost identical in the recovery of attributes and item parameters. Specifically, the DINMix and GDINA models have almost the same diagnostic capabilities, but the former is more concise and easier to be interpreted.

The work represented in this article is an initial attempt to simultaneously consider multiple condensation rules in a single CDM. Despite promising results, some limitations still exist. First, the utilized model framework (see Equations 1 and 5) models the aberrant responses at the item level. However, in practice, such aberrant responses may occur at the attribute rather than item level, such as the noisy inputs, deterministic, ‘and’ gate model (Junker & Sijtsma, 2001). Ways to incorporate attribute-level aberrant responses into the proposed model are worthy of further research, as Equation 11 in de la Torre (2011) seems to give us a reference. Second, within-item characteristic dependency (Zhan, Jiao, Liao et al., 2019), which means that the dependency exists between the guessing and slip parameters within an item, was not considered in the proposed model. It can be incorporated into the proposed model to increase the estimation accuracy of the item parameters in a future study. Third, only the dichotomous scoring item and dichotomous attribute were modeled in the proposed model. It would be meaningful and practical to extend the current model to consider polytomous scoring items (e.g., Ma & de la Torre, 2016) and polytomous attributes (e.g., Zhan et al., 2020). Fourth, in recent years, some studies have focused on the Q-matrix validation or estimation (Chen et al., 2018; de la Torre & Chiu, 2016) and the multiple strategies for problem-solving (Ma & Guo, 2019), which are not covered in current study. Fifth, notably, the generalizability of the findings of this study is dependent upon the limitations of the design of the simulation studies, such as a fixed number of attributes and assuming the Q-matrix is correct. To further generalize these findings, a wider range of simulated conditions should be considered in future studies.

Does language change what we perceive? Does speaking different languages cause us to perceive things differently?

Lupyan, Gary, Rasha Abdel Rahman, Lera Boroditsky, and Andy Clark. 2020. “Effects of Language on Visual Perception.” PsyArXiv. April 28. doi:10.31234/osf.io/pztmc

Abstract: Does language change what we perceive? Does speaking different languages cause us to perceive things differently? We review the behavioral and electrophysiological evidence for the influence of language on perception, with an emphasis on the visual modality. Effects of language on perception can be observed both in higher-level processes such as recognition, and in lower-level processes such as discrimination and detection. A consistent finding is that language causes us to perceive in a more categorical way. Rather than being fringe or exotic, as they are sometimes portrayed, we discuss how effects of language on perception naturally arise from the interactive and predictive nature of perception.

The higher individuals are in trait ambivalence, the smaller their bias towards attributing behavior to a person’s disposition; we find the same for self-serving bias

Schneider, Iris, Sheida Novin, Frenk van Harreveld, and Oliver Genschow. 2020. “Benefits of Being Ambivalent: The Relationship Between Trait Ambivalence and Attribution Biases.” PsyArXiv. August 22. doi:10.1111/bjso.12417

Abstract: Ambivalence refers to the experience of having both positive and negative thoughts and feelings at the same time about the same object, person, or issue. Although ambivalence research has focused extensively on negative consequences, recently, scholars turned their lens to the positive effects of ambivalence, demonstrating beneficial effects on judgments and decision-making processes. So far, this work has focused on state ambivalence, which is ambivalence as a direct response to a specific stimulus. However, there are substantial individual differences in ambivalence: some people are just more ambivalent than others. Taking a first step in understanding how these individual differences relate to judgment and decision-making, we examine the relationship between trait ambivalence and cognitive bias in social judgments tasks. Specifically, we look at two of the most pervasive and consequential attribution biases in person perception: correspondence bias and self-serving bias. We find a negative relationship between trait ambivalence and correspondence bias. The higher individuals are in trait ambivalence, the smaller their bias towards attributing behavior to a person’s disposition (Study 1A and B). We find the same for self-serving bias (Study 2A and B). In sum, we show that trait ambivalence is negatively related to cognitive bias in person perception.

We primarily rely on personal cost rather than social benefit when evaluating prosocial actors; this occurs because sacrifice, but not benefit, is taken as a signal of moral character & an input to reputational judgments

Johnson, Samuel G. B. 2020. “Dimensions of Altruism: Do Evaluations of Prosocial Behavior Track Social Good or Personal Sacrifice?.” PsyArXiv. August 22. doi:10.31234/osf.io/r85jv

Abstract: Do we praise prosocial acts because they produce social benefits or because they entail a personal sacrifice? Six studies demonstrate that consumers primarily rely on personal cost rather than social benefit when evaluating prosocial actors. This occurs because sacrifice, but not benefit, is taken as a signal of moral character and an input to reputational judgments (Studies 1 and 2), reflecting a “character = sacrifice” heuristic predicted by costly signaling theory. The studies test four possible boundary conditions, finding that the effects are similar for actions that benefit one’s own country versus foreigners (Study 3), but differ for donations of time (Study 4), when information about personal sacrifice is unavailable (Study 5), and when high-cost but ineffective acts are pitted directly against low-cost but effective acts in joint evaluation (Study 6). These results help to account for the ineffectiveness of many charitable activities but also suggest directions for incentivizing effective charity.

Check also Johnson, Samuel G. B., and Seo Y. Park. 2019. “Moral Signaling Through Donations of Money and Time.” PsyArXiv. September 23. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/09/consumers-view-time-donations-as.html

Depersonalization is common in anxiety disorders; on a trait level, anxiety & depersonalization more frequently co-occur when people catastrophically misinterpret their symptoms or have lower emotional distress tolerance

French, Noah J., Jeremy W. Eberle, and Bethany Teachman. 2020. “Moderators of the Relationships Between State and Trait Anxiety and Depersonalization.” PsyArXiv. July 22. doi:10.31234/osf.io/63zrj

Abstract: Depersonalization is common in anxiety disorders, but little is known about the factors that influence co-occurring anxiety and depersonalization. We investigated trait moderators of the relationships between state and trait anxiety and depersonalization to better understand their co-occurrence and to identify potential points of intervention. Adults recruited on Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 303) completed two computer tasks designed to increase variability in state anxiety and depersonalization as well as several self-report questionnaires. As hypothesized (preregistration: https://osf.io/xgazd/?view_only=56eba3dfb2b8454a97d3f66eb5217f7a), anxiety positively predicted depersonalization at both a state level, β = 0.43, 95% CI [0.39, 0.47], and a trait level, β = 0.60, 95% CI [0.51, 0.70]. Moreover, as hypothesized, the trait anxiety-trait depersonalization relationship was strengthened by greater anxiety sensitivity, β = 0.25, 95% CI [0.17, 0.34]; distress intolerance, β = 0.15, 95% CI [0.05, 0.25]; and negative interpretation bias for anxiety sensations (inverse transformed), β = -0.21, 95% CI [-0.30, -0.13], and for depersonalization sensations (inverse transformed), β = -0.27, 95% CI [-0.35, -0.19]. None of these hypothesized trait moderators significantly strengthened the state anxiety-state depersonalization relationship. These findings suggest that on a trait level, anxiety and depersonalization more frequently co-occur when people catastrophically misinterpret their symptoms or have lower emotional distress tolerance.

Low Base Rates and a High IQ Selection Threshold Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists

Low Base Rates and a High IQ Selection Threshold Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists. Russell T. WarneRoss LarsenJonathan Clark. Aug 22, 2020. http://psyarxiv.com/g4x6r/

Although the accomplishments of the 1,528 subjects of the Genetic Studies of Genius are impressive, they do not represent the pinnacle of human achievement. Since the early 1990s, commentators have criticized the study because two future Nobelists—William Shockley and Luis Alvarez—were among the candidates screened for the study; but they were rejected because their IQ scores were too low. Critics see this as a flaw of Terman’s methodology and/or intelligence testing. This study simulates the Terman’s sampling procedure to estimate the probability that Terman would have selected one or both future Nobelists from a population of 168,000 candidates. Using simulations, we created a model that reflected the reliability of the IQ scores used to select individuals for the Genetic Studies of Genius and the relationship between IQ and Nobelist status. Results showed that it was unlikely for Terman to identify children who would later earn Nobel prizes, mostly because of the low base rate of earning a Nobel and the high minimum IQ needed to be selected for Terman’s study. Changes to the methodology that would have been required to select one or both Nobelists were not practical. Therefore, future Nobelists’ absence from the Genetic Studies of Genius sample is not a fatal flaw of intelligence testing or Terman’s study. Instead, predicting high levels of eminence requires measuring a variety of relevant cognitive and non-cognitive variables. Simulation code and results and reliability generalization information are available at https://osf.io/3xfe8/.

Compared with firefighters and soldiers, inmates had more biological- and stepsiblings, experienced their sexual onset earlier, had offspring with more women, and reported lower life expectancy

Do Criminals Live Faster Than Soldiers and Firefighters? A Comparison of Biodemographic and Psychosocial Dimensions of Life History Theory. Monika Kwiek & Przemysław Piotrowski
Human Nature, Aug 22 2020. https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12110-020-09374-5

Abstract: A high risk of morbidity-mortality caused by a harsh and unpredictable environment is considered to be associated with a fast life history (LH) strategy, commonly linked with criminal behavior. However, offenders are not the only group with a high exposure to extrinsic morbidity-mortality. In the present study, we investigated the LH strategies employed by two groups of Polish men: incarcerated offenders (N = 84) as well as soldiers and firefighters (N = 117), whose professions involve an elevated risk of injury and premature death. The subjects were asked to complete the Mini-K (used as a psychosocial LH indicator) and a questionnaire which included a number of biodemographic LH variables. Although biodemographic and psychosocial LH indicators should be closely linked with each other, the actual connection between them is unclear. Thus, this study was driven by two aims: comparing LH strategies in two groups of men with a high risk of premature morbidity-mortality and investigating the relationship between the biodemographic and psychosocial LH dimensions. The study showed that incarcerated men employed faster LH strategies than soldiers and firefighters, but only in relation to biodemographic variables (e.g., number of siblings, age of sexual initiation, life expectancy). No intergroup differences emerged regarding psychosocial LH indicators. Moreover, the correlation analysis showed a weak association between biodemographic and psychosocial LH indicators. The results strengthen the legitimacy of incorporating biodemographic LH traits into research models and indicate the need for further research on the accuracy of the Mini-K. The possible explanations for the intergroup differences in LH strategies are discussed.

Discussion

Intergroup Differences in LH Strategies

One of the aims of the current study was to examine differences in LH strategies adopted by incarcerated offenders and men working as firefighters and soldiers. As predicted, the inmates turned out to develop faster LH strategies than men in dangerous professions. However, this dependency occurred only in relation to biodemographic variables. The inmates’ mothers gave birth to their firstborn at a younger age and had shorter intervals between subsequent pregnancies than the soldiers and firefighters’ mothers. Moreover, compared with firefighters and soldiers, inmates had more biological- and stepsiblings, experienced their sexual onset earlier, had offspring with more women, and reported lower life expectancy.

All the differences reported above consistently indicate that incarcerated men employ faster LH strategies both in relation to biodemographic factors of mating/parenting trade-offs and regarding life expectancy. Although we expected such differences in the context of LH strategy pace, it is interesting that soldiers and firefighters, whose exposure to physical threats is often a part of their daily work routine, expected to live longer than inmates who are incarcerated, constantly monitored, and therefore protected from many external morbidity-mortality cues. Such findings suggest that the perceived risk of premature mortality might not be a simple reflection of prevailing conditions but may tell us something more about the person. To shed more light on this matter, it is worth referring to the previously described predictive adaptive response (PAR) hypotheses, according to which an individual makes predictions about future environmental conditions (external PAR) or their own life expectancy (internal PAR) based on the level of adversity experienced early in life (Nettle et al. 2013). Thereby, when it comes to an individual’s expected survival, early-life adversity might be even more important than objective current morbidity-mortality risk.

Admittedly, we did not ask the participants about their backgrounds. However, our results showed that compared with soldiers and firefighters, inmates had more biological siblings and stepsiblings and their parents started their families at an earlier age. Considering that larger family size and becoming a parent at a younger age are commonly associated with a family’s lower socioeconomic status (Mace 2014), lower parental investments (Stulp and Barrett 2016), as well as a higher occurrence of harsh parenting (Lee and Guterman 2010) and child maltreatment (Scannapieco and Connell-Carrick 2016), we assume that the inmates from our study may have grown up in more adverse households than men working as soldiers and firefighters. That could make them more perceptive of mortality cues in their current environment. Since the correlation analyses used in this study prevent us from using causal language, the possibility presented above is a mere speculation that requires further investigation.

The possibility of higher early-life adversity among the inmates could also serve as an explanation for commonly known differences in prosociality between our two study groups. In fact, as a recent study has shown, growing up in a disadvantaged environment tends to be negatively associated with further prosociality by leading to lower levels of Honesty-Humility and dispositional trust in others (Wu et al. 2020).

It also seems to be plausible that intergroup differences in prosociality are not only the result of a more adverse childhood and explain the different LH strategies adopted by the subjects, but might also affect these LH strategies. As soldiers and firefighters engage in risky behaviors in the service of society, their professions are respected in their communities and are a source of recognition, status, and prestige (King and Karabell 2003; Martens 2005). Therefore, their everyday life must be far less hostile than prison reality, which is typically characterized by a high prevalence of male aggressive competition and dominance (Kupers 2005) and inflicts considerable harm on inmates (Irwin and Owen 2005). Living under such hostile conditions might consolidate inmates’ fast LH strategies and partly explain their relatively pessimistic outlook on the future.

Furthermore, starting a family at younger age and having more offspring turned out to be characteristic of the inmates as well as the inmates’ parents. These similarities in biodemographic indicators of LH strategies between participants and their parents might have occurred partly due to genetic influence. In fact, LH traits are considered to be to some extent heritable (Briley et al. 2017; Figueredo et al. 2004; Tielbeek et al. 2018), which makes genetic confounding another hypothetical explanation of our results.

Another issue is the lack of intergroup differences in terms of number of offspring. In addition, there was no association between the number of children reported by the subjects and the other biodemographic variables. Among the inmates, however, the more children they had, the slower the psychometric LH strategy they employed. Similar results were reported by Richardson et al. (2017b), who argued that one of the reasons for the existence of such associations that are inconsistent with LH theory might be the prevalence of contraception use, which makes it easier to prevent unwanted pregnancies among more promiscuous individuals who are not interested in starting a family. As a result, slower LH strategists who intend to be parents can have more offspring than people with faster LH strategies, who usually prefer not to have children (Richardson et al. 2017b). Our findings seem to confirm the above line of reasoning because, although the number of children was not a reliable indicator of the subject’s LH strategy, the intergroup differences in the number of both biological siblings and stepsiblings were consistent with LH theory predictions. Considering the upward trend in using birth control methods over the several past decades (Blanc et al. 2009; Sonenstein et al. 1998), it becomes apparent that around thirty years ago, when the subjects were born, contraception use was not as ubiquitous as it is at present, and greater mating effort was certainly more strongly associated with a higher number of children. In fact, as the recent study has shown, modern industrialized populations adopting a slower LH strategy tend to enjoy increased fertility (Woodley of Menie et al. 2017), which as stated above is most likely a result of the fact that slower LH strategists are more interested in parenting in general (Clutterbuck et al. 2014). Basically, all these findings lead us to the supposition that number of offspring was a more accurate reflection of LH pace in the past than it is currently. In our modern societies, employing a slow LH strategy seems to be related to higher parental investment, which does not always require having fewer offspring. Perhaps when optimized to its fullest potential, a slow LH strategy may actually favor both the quality and the quantity of children. After all, although parental investments influence children’s fitness, the more an individual has invested in their offspring, the more they can lose by employing a fast LH strategy. Thus, at least to some extent, a slow LH strategy might become more and more beneficial with each subsequent child. The association between a slower LH strategy and having more offspring may also be explained by the fact that people with slow LH strategies are typically perceived as higher-quality mates (Dillon et al. 2013), so they are more likely to attract partners interested in long-lasting relationship and starting families.

The Connection between Biodemographic and Psychosocial Indicators of LH Strategy

Compelled by the dispute over the existence and importance of the relations between biodemographic and psychosocial aspects of LH dimension as well as the shortage of research done on this subject, we aimed to examine the associations between the group of traditional biodemographic LH indicators and the psychosocial assessment of LH strategy obtained by using the Mini-K.

In general, higher scores on the Mini-K indicating a slower LH strategy were associated with having parents who had their first child at a greater age, being older when becoming a parent oneself and, counterintuitively, having more offspring (discussed in the previous section). This already weak association between biodemographic and psychosocial LH variables turned out to be even less significant within the groups. Among the inmates, the slower LH strategy measured by the Mini-K was connected with becoming a father at a later age and having slightly more offspring. Among soldiers and firefighters there was no connection between biodemographic and psychosocial LH variables at all. These results seem to suggest a weak and incoherent connection between biodemographic LH variables and psychosocial aspects of LH dimension assessed using the Mini-K. On the other hand, more correlations occurred in the general sample than among the subgroups, which might suggest that some connections may be more likely to occur if the sample sizes were larger.

Limitations and Future Directions

The current study has several limitations. The first is the exclusive use of correlation analyses, which prevents us from making conclusions about any causal dependencies. Admittedly, the use of correlation analyses was justified by the aims of the study, which included investigating intergroup differences and verifying connections between the two groups of LH indicators. In future studies, analyses concerning causal relationships would have to include indicators of the perceived harshness and unpredictability of early and current environments. Incorporating such variables into research projects would provide us with a more holistic perspective on the LH strategies currently being employed. Thus, future studies on the psychosocial LH dimension should include traditional biodemographic variables, on which LH theory is based, as well as indicators of perceived harshness and unpredictability experienced at different stages of life. This could be achieved by carrying out longitudinal studies with repetitive usage of questionnaires regarding personal convictions about other people and their immediate surroundings (e.g., The World Assumptions Scale; Janoff-Bulman 1989).

The use of a nonrandom selection process might be perceived as another limitation in the context of intergroup differences in the Mini-K scores. The study groups were similar in terms of experiencing higher morbidity-mortality rates on average than the general population. Intergroup differences occurred but only in relation to biodemographic LH indicators. However, comparing the study groups to individuals with a lower morbidity-mortality risk (a control group) might provide us with intergroup differences in the Mini-K as well. In fact, when comparing our subjests’ scores on the Mini-K with the results of the study investigated on a sample of university students (Figueredo et al. 2014), we found that the Mini-K average obtained in our research (M = 1.21, SD = .71) was significantly lower than the average result for the students (1.41; t200 = −4.07, p < .001). Same results were obtained separately for inmates (M = 1.15, SD = .73; t83 = −3.25, p = .002) and for soldiers and firefighters group (M = 1.25, SD = .70; t116 = −2.56, p = .012).

Another point, mentioned previously, is that the lack of connection between biodemographic indicators and the Mini-K in the firefighters and soldiers as well as the very weak connections between these variables in the inmates might be partly affected by the relatively small sample sizes.

Also, because inmates are characterized by a high prevalence of ADHD and comorbid conditions (Ginsberg et al. 2010; Rasmussen et al. 2001), we did not want to include too many questionnaires in the study since this could have lowered the inmates’ motivation to participate. As a result, we chose to restrict the psychosocial LH assessment to the Mini-K, which, as mentioned above, is the most popular psychosocial LH measure considered to be an alternative for the ALHB and K-SF-42 and correlated with the HKSS (Dunkel and Decker 2010). Nevertheless, more comprehensive analyses including all psychometric LH measures in relation to traditional LH variables would offer a valuable verification of the results obtained in the current study.

Finally, our study was limited to the LH strategies of male participants only because of our greater access to men in both study groups. Certainly, future studies including female subjects would be welcome.

Trends in anxiety among adults in the United States, 2008-2018: Rapid increases among young adults 18-25 yo; did not significantly increase among individuals 50 years old and older

Trends in anxiety among adults in the United States, 2008-2018: Rapid increases among young adults. Renee D. Goodwin et al. Journal of Psychiatric Research, August 21 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2020.08.014

Highlights
• Anxiety increased from 2008 to 2018 among American adults
• Nearly 7% of adults and 15% of young adults reported anxiety in 2018
• Anxiety increased most rapidly among young adults ages 18-25 years old
• Anxiety did not significantly increase among individuals 50 years old and older

Abstract
Introduction In a time of global uncertainty, understanding the psychological health of the American public is imperative. There are no current data on anxiety trends among adults in the United States (US) over time. This study aimed to investigate prevalence of anxiety among US adults from 2008-2018.

Methods Data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), which is an annual, cross-sectional survey on substance use and mental health in the US, were analyzed in 2020. Prevalence of past-month anxiety was estimated among those ages ≥18, by survey year from 2008 to 2018. Time trends were tested using logistic regression.

Results Anxiety increased from 5.12% in 2008 to 6.68% in 2018 (p<.0001) among adult Americans. Stratification by age revealed the most notable increase from 7.97% to 14.66% among respondents 18-25 years old (p<.001), which was a more rapid increase than among 26-34 and 35-49 year olds (differential time trend p<.001). Anxiety did not significantly increase among those ages 50 and older. Anxiety increased more rapidly among those never married and with some college education, relative to their respective counterparts. Apart from age, marital status and education, anxiety increased consistently among sociodemographic groups.

Conclusions Anxiety is increasing among adults under age 50 in the US, with more rapid increase among young adults. To prepare for a healthier adulthood and given direct and indirect (via 24/7 media) exposure to anxiety-provoking world events, prophylactic measures that can bolster healthy coping responses and/or treatment seeking seem warranted on a broad scale.

Keywords: anxietynervousnessmental healthepidemiologyNSDUH

DISCUSSION

Overall, our results are consistent with and extend prior findings that mental health has worsened in the US by showing that anxiety, too, has broadly increased among adults in the US over the past decade. Anxiety appears most common among young adults and has increased more rapidly among 18 to 25-year-olds than among any other age group. Anxiety also increased more rapidly among those never married versus married and among those with a high school diploma or some college versus those who did not complete high school. Anxiety increased consistently across racial/ethnic, gender and income subgroups. Adults over age 50 was the only demographic subgroup amongst whom anxiety did not change from 2008 to 2018.

The overall increase in anxiety in the US population was broad and consistent across sociodemographic groups, suggesting that large-scale public health approaches to mitigate anxiety may be needed, in addition to outreach and increasing accessibility of mental health services. In terms of education, the increase in anxiety was slower among those who did not complete high school vs. those with higher formal education. Of all subgroups, unmarried adults and young adults showed the most rapid increases in anxiety. Being married has been consistently associated with health benefits (Curtin and Tejada-Vera, 2019; Kaplan and Kronick, 2006; Rendall et al., 2011). These findings may relate to many factors including differences in social isolation, social support and financial stability (Cacioppo et al. 2014; Holt-Lunstad et al. 2015; Petitte et al. 2015). Some data suggest a link between loneliness and anxiety (Igbokwe et al., 2020), though there is little research on the relationship between social isolation and anxiety. Especially considering extended social isolation across the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this is an issue that may gain even more salience in protecting the mental health of the country (Elran-Barak and Mozeikov, 2020).

Anxiety is most common and has increased most rapidly among young adults. Anxious temperament and subclinical anxiety earlier in life is associated with increased risk of subsequent onset of anxiety disorders, depression, substance use disorders and physical health problems (e.g., Bittner et al., 2004; Goodwin, 2002; Goodwin et al., 2004a, b; Olafiranye et al., 2011; Ringbäck Weitoft and Rosén, 2005; Roy-Byrne et al., 2008; Taha et al., 2014; Wittchen et al., 2003). Young adulthood is the key period of vulnerability for the onset of these conditions. Therefore, increasing anxiety in this vulnerable group would be expected to have a greater impact on longer-term mental health and functional outcomes than increases in anxiety in older age groups. In addition, anxiety or stress has been shown to influence brain development, which is not completed until approximately age 25 (e.g., McEwen, 2011; Piccolo and Noble, 2018; Saleh et al., 2017). Increased persistent anxiety among young adults therefore could have long-term impact on academic, psychological and social development. Further, the explosion of social media, which is associated with increased anxiety and depression among young people, may be a contributing factor to the increase in anxiety over time, especially after 2011 (Barthorpe et al., 2020; Hollis et al., 2020; Riehm et al., 2019).

On a population level, our findings are consistent with recent data from Sweden reporting that adults, and young adults in particular, experienced an increase in poor sleep, stress and poorer general health from 2000 to 2016 (Blom et al., 2020). Data from US adults also suggest increased levels of stress, with work and money articulated as the most common reasons for anxiety (American Psychological Association, 2014, 2016). The time frame of the current study included the 2016 presidential election, which was reported by more than half of US adults, including more than half of Millennials (ages 20 to 35), as a significant source of stress (American Psychological Association, 2017; Hoyt et al., 2018; Zeiders et al., 2019). No direct relationship between specific events and changes in anxiety can be drawn from this study. Therefore, similar to findings regarding increases in mental health problems and the 2008 financial crisis (e.g., Case and Deaton, 2015), any connection between changes in anxiety and the effect of national events on a population level would be speculative but may be important to consider in individual-level clinical efforts to address and reduce anxiety. Such relationships may be worthy of consideration in both public health and clinical planning to address the increasing anxiety that appears widespread in the US, especially among young adults. Young people are confronting more potentially anxiety-provoking world events than prior generations, and exposure to such events is now pervasive with access to 24/7 media.

While symptoms of anxiety are associated with increased likelihood of subsequent anxiety disorders and depression, treatment for subclinical anxiety has also been shown to reduce the risk of these outcomes (Goodwin and Gorman, 2002; Goodwin and Olfson, 2001). The assessment of anxiety in the current study (self-reported nervousness) is not diagnostic of either subclinical or clinical anxiety, but the finding that over 40% of those classified as having anxiety in these analyses (i.e., those reporting nervousness most or all of the time) reported past-year treatment suggests that their anxiety was related to distress or impairment, given that a minority of individuals with anxiety are seen for treatment in the US. Treatment for anxiety is delayed in the vast majority of cases (Iza et al., 2013; Kessler et al., 1998), and most anxiety symptoms or disorders go untreated due to various issues including, but not limited to, lack of awareness of symptoms and effectiveness of treatment, stigma, and lack of parity in mental health coverage (Christiana et al., 2000; Wang et al., 2004).

Limitations

Limitations of this study must be considered when interpreting these results. First, although technically synonymous with “anxiety,” “nervousness” is one expression of anxiety and neither encompasses all types of anxiety nor is reflective of a clinically diagnosed anxiety disorder. Yet, in light of the fact that a substantial percentage of respondents with anxiety reported seeking mental health treatment—on par with those with mental health problems who receive specialized treatment—supports the likelihood that this variable is capturing clinically significant anxiety (Olfson et al., 2019). There is a relative paucity of anxiety measures in national surveys assessed consistently over time. To our knowledge, this is the only measure that could be considered an indicator of anxiety that has been assessed consistently over the past decade in a nationally representative sample. Second, it is possible that the increase observed is due to differences in reporting related to decreasing stigma associated with mental disorders. However, it seems less likely that differences in age groups and other sociodemographics would be observed were that the case, and the fact that “nervousness” is not a disorder seems to reduce the likelihood that this is the sole reason for this finding, though it is possible. Third, NSDUH data are repeated cross-sectional samples and longitudinal data would be important for examining changes in anxiety, changes in variables potentially associated with anxiety, and the timing of changes in anxiety and associated variables among individuals. Finally, while this study was designed to examine sociodemographic differences in anxiety over time, there may be other variables associated with anxiety that may be useful to identify vulnerable subgroups.

Echo chambers... Contrary to this prediction, we found that moderate and uncertain participants showed a nonreciprocal attraction towards extreme and confident individuals

Zimmerman, Federico, Gerry Garbulsky, Dan Ariely, Mariano Sigman, and Joaquin Navajas. 2020. “The Nonreciprocal and Polarizing Nature of Interpersonal Attraction in Political Discussions.” PsyArXiv. August 21. doi:10.31234/osf.io/b9645

Abstract: Echo chambers in public debates are thought to emerge because people display greater preference for those holding similar political views. However, this idea requires careful testing because similarity correlates with other quantities which may drive interpersonal attraction, such as differences in political orientation, attitude extremity, and certainty. Here, we tested the attraction-similarity hypothesis in a study with an unprecedentedly large number of ecological one-shot pairwise political discussions. This setting allowed us examining a key prediction implicit in this account: liking should be reciprocal due to the symmetric nature of similarity. Contrary to this prediction, we found that moderate and uncertain participants showed a nonreciprocal attraction towards extreme and confident individuals. These results are explained by an asymmetric model where liking is modulated by the consistency and certainty of political opinions. We provide converging evidence supporting this account from quantitative model-comparison analyses and an empirical replication in an independent study. Overall, these results reject the widely spread view that political homophily drives social interactions and shed light on a principle of interpersonal attraction that may help understanding the polarization of societies.

Although some support exists that sleep is more beneficial for certain kinds of memories, the majority of studies does not support such an effect

Davidson, Per, Peter Jönsson, Ingegerd Carlsson, and Edward Pace-Schott. 2020. “Does Sleep Selectively Strengthen Certain Memories over Others? A Critical Review of the Literature.” PsyArXiv. August 21. doi:10.31234/osf.io/umn9r

Abstract: Sleep has been found to have a beneficial effect on memory consolidation. It has furthermore frequently been suggested that sleep does not strengthen all memories equally. The aim of this literature review was to examine the studies that have measured whether sleep selectively strengthens certain kinds of declarative memories more than others, depending on such factors as emotion, reward, test-expectancy or different instructions during encoding. The review of this literature revealed that although some support exists that sleep is more beneficial for certain kinds of memories, the majority of studies does not support such an effect. A second aim of this review was to examine which factors during sleep that have been found to selectively benefit certain memories over others, with a special focus on the often-suggested claim that rapid eye movement sleep primarily consolidates emotional memories. The review of this literature revealed that no sleep variable has been reliably found to be specifically associated with the consolidation of certain kinds of memories over others.

From 2009... Circumcision and semen displacement: Circumcised men were more likely to have cheated on their female partners and to think that their partners had cheated on them

From 2009... Circumcision and semen displacement. Sara M. Ressing, Rebecca L. Burch. Northeastern Evolutionary Psychology Society. 3rd Annual Conference, 2009. https://neepsociety.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/NEEPS2009PROGRAM.pdf

Abstract: This study intended to examine differences in semen displacement behaviors between circumcised and uncircumcised males in a college population. Circumcised men were more likely to have cheated on their female partners and to think that their partners had cheated on them. However, reactions to these suspicions, such as mateguarding, physical violence or sexual violence did not differ. Both types of men reacted to suspected infidelity with increased thrusting speed, depth and vigor. While uncircumcised men routinely had intercourse in the missionary position, circumcised men were more likely to engage in lateral entry and female superior positions and in anal sex. Although both men and women report similar thrusting depth, speed and vigor, circumcised men and their partners reported a significant decrease in thrusting behaviors after orgasm. Uncircumcised men may continue thrusting for a longer period after orgasm. While this would presumably result in more displacement, after orgasm it would serve as self semen displacement.

One of the foundational mechanisms of the artwork can be meaningfully conceptualized as a cognitively rich interaction which, by design, informs & exploits the mind’s predictive system

Suspended Reason and Tom Rutten. 2020. “Predictive Hermeneutics.” PsyArXiv. August 11. doi:10.31234/osf.io/tg8ym

Abstract: Recently, cognitive scientists like Clark (2016) and Hohwy (2013), alongside computational neuroscientist Karl Friston (2006, 2013) have conceptualized the mind as a hierarchical prediction system, at levels varying from the “merely” sensory to the highly conceptual. Here, we extend this thesis in order to understand the hermeneutic process as it relates to textual and artistic encounters. We argue that one of the foundational mechanisms of the artwork, as it is contemporarily conceived, can be meaningfully conceptualized as a cognitively rich interaction which, by design, informs and exploits the mind’s predictive system. We further show how this mechanism, and a predictive framework more generally, help explain a host of traditional literary, aesthetic, and art historical values, including ambiguity, defamiliarization, and reversal.


§4 Characteristics of schema-subversive art
In §3, we theorized the schema-subversive (both forced
and opportunistic) and schema-baring functions of art
objects within the predictive framework introduced in §1
and 2. Here, in §4 and 5, we speculate on other possible
dynamics between art and an audience’s schemas.

4.1 Art as superstimulus
Following Hurley et al. (2011) on humor , we propose that
art is, among other functions, a kind of higher-level
cognitive superstimulus culturally evolved to target
humans’ innate predictive structure. Agent arousal
correlates with the properties of high perceived relevance
or precision as a Bayesian input, derived, respectively,
from the work’s (perceived) topicality and the author’s
(perceived) credibility. Like a joke, which is tailored to
guide listeners to a specific interpretation of events only to
pull the rug out (Hurley, Dennett, and Adams 2011), art is
tailored to target existing compressions in a subject’s
schemas. Where classical art often reifies or activates
familiar patterns, e.g. patterns used for object recognition
(Evans 2019), contemporary works often exploit and
subvert regularity observable in the real word. In either
case, the artwork provides an intense encounter between a
subject and schema, on one side, and the art object with its
highly compression-prone or compression-breaking
information on the other.

4.2 Truthiness and adherence to model
In an art encounter, our mind updates its inferential models
about the world with respect to the work’s perceived
accuracy, an assessment made by the model itself. The
observer’s schema acts as a “check” or arbitrator on its
own incorporation of the artworks’ worldview (dynamics
and concepts); when the cartography of the work is too
implausible in the eyes of an apprehending schema, it may
be dismissed entirely. This is to say that concepts learned
directly from personal experience, and indirectly from
outside sources, are used to assess the likelihood of a
work’s worldview as conveyed through its components.

The artwork’s “truthiness” as estimated by the viewer can
be understood as its precision, or reliability (Clark 2016).
In this way the schema can be understood as a gatekeeper
to its own revision: only stimulus surpassing some level of
intelligibility and precision for a viewer will be able to
interact with the viewer’s schema and incite revision. One
consequence is that information which fits closely with an
existing schema but poorly with a ground-truth reality is
perceived by that schema as more, rather than less, likely
to be the case.
Art that presents worldviews or models of reality that are
congenial with the observer’s can be termed resonant; art
that is presented by a source who we deem authoritative is
termed credible.

Romantic and Sexual Relationships with Adult Partners Among Minor-attracted Persons

Mundy, Crystal, Hailee Lewis, and Jan Cioe. 2020. “Romantic and Sexual Relationships with Adult Partners Among Minor-attracted Persons.” PsyArXiv. August 21. doi:10.31234/osf.io/b3uhn

Abstract: Limited research has been conducted on minor-attracted persons’ romantic and sexual relationships with adult partners. This study examined reasons for such relationships among 128 self-identified minor-attracted persons. Secondary analyses explored whether age sexual orientation (i.e., degree of attraction to minors and/or adults) can be conceptualized as a continuum. We also explored whether age sexual orientation impacted reasons for engaging in sex with adult partners. The results suggest that age sexual orientation varies widely among minor-attracted persons and can be quantified using a modified Kinsey Scale. Minor-attracted persons endorsed both non-sexual and sexual reasons for engaging adult-partnered relationships. Minor-attracted persons with more exclusive attraction to minors were less likely to engage in sex for pleasure reasons and less likely to engage in romantic relationships due to love towards their adult partner; this contrasted with minor-attracted persons with less exclusive attraction to minors. These findings support the heterogeneity of minor-attracted persons, including differential reasons for engaging in adult-partnered relationships. Professionals should seek to understand the nature of their clients’ relationships and age sexual orientation to determine whether such factors are relevant. Professionals can then support clients in their search for meaningful relationships.

Check also Relationship between paraphilic interests, sex, and sexual and life satisfaction in non-clinical samples: Those with paraphilic interests rarely felt negatively affected

Exploring the relationship between paraphilic interests, sex, and sexual and life satisfaction in non-clinical samples. Crystal L. Mundy, Jan D. Cioe. The Canadian Journal of Human Sexuality, May 13, 2019. 

Men clearly projected more sexy & positive emotions onto the stimuli when the stimuli displayed erect nipples; women did project more positive emotions with erect nipples, but did not differ in their expression of sexy

Burch, R. L., & Widman, D. R. (2020). The point of nipple erection 1: The experience and projection of perceived emotional states while viewing women with and without erect nipples. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, Aug 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/ebs0000244

Abstract: To determine whether female nipple erection is perceived as a sign of sexual arousal or interest, male and female participants were asked to rate photos of real women with and without salient nipple erection on a series of 16 emotional and physiological states, including positive, negative, and sexually aroused states. Nipple erection salience was rated by independent raters, and faces in photos were obscured to prevent discerning emotional states from facial cues. Men clearly projected more sexy and positive emotions onto the stimuli when the stimuli displayed erect nipples. Whereas women did project more positive emotions with erect nipples, they did not differ in their expression of sexy. We also observed that men’s self-ratings of sexy and positive emotions were the same as their ratings of the stimuli. Women, however, reported significantly less sexy and positive emotions for themselves relative to the stimuli.

Electrical stimulation of the human cortex: The farther removed from sensory input or motor output structures, the less likely it is that a region contributes to consciousness

Hot or not. Christof Koch. Nature Human Behaviour, Jul 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0925-7

Abstract: Electrical stimulation of the human cortex, undertaken for brain surgery, triggers percepts and feelings. A new study documents an ordering principle to these effects: the farther removed from sensory input or motor output structures, the less likely it is that a region contributes to consciousness.

The elicitation rate, the fraction of electrodes the participant can sense when activated (within the safety limits of the stimulation protocol), varies across the accessible cortical surface. It is as high as two out of three electrodes above visual and somatosensory areas and as low as one out of five electrodes above limbic areas or one out of six over the anterior prefrontal regions. When electrode locations were projected onto a 7- or 17-region parcellation of cerebral cortex (derived from functional MRI resting state functional connectivity of a thousand healthy adults), a compelling pattern emerged: the elicitation rate decreased monotonically along a functional-anatomical gradient, starting with sensory regions at the bottom and ending with transmodal, default-mode and limbic networks at the top. The higher up in the cortex a region is, the less likely gentle brain stimulation there will be noticed by the participating brain (Fig. 1). The silence of these frontoparietal, limbic and default mode networks is remarkable as they are thought to be central to much of cognition.

Furthermore, the varieties of distinct experiences (for example, a visual phosphene, a recall of a song, a feeling of unease) increased when ascending this gradient: while the majority of evoked responses in sensorimotor areas reflect the appropriate visual, somatosensory or motor modality, the smaller number of experiences evoked in limbic, midline and the farthest forward prefrontal region were the most diverse across participants. A variety of controls, such as sham trials and varying the amplitude of the iES, ruled out systematic confounds, such as participants having different rates of false alarm or excitability of the underlying tissue varying systematically with location.

While iES is safe and effective, it is also crude: the electrodes are many square millimetres in area and deliver up to 10 mA of bipolar current between adjacent electrodes that can modulate the excitability of a million or more pyramidal neurons and interneurons within a volume given by the resistive spread of the current, supplemented by more remote effects caused by evoking spikes in axons of passage. Still, effects induced by iES can be quite localized, with responsiveness changing from all to none within millimetres or across a sulcus3,7. The challenge for the future will be to move towards microstimulation, common in laboratory animals, in which a thousand-fold-smaller current is sent through thousand-fold-smaller electrodes to give rise to ever more specific sensations. Perhaps this will reveal the remarkable absence of auditory percepts when stimulating Heschl’s gyri, in the neighbourhood of auditory cortex.

The exacting data collected by Fox and colleagues provides critical causal, not just observational, evidence to identify the neuronal correlates of consciousness. Indeed, whether or not the epicentre of experience is in a postulated posterior hot zone or in prefrontal cortex8,9 can be addressed in this manner.

What Is a Coalition? A Systematic Review of Coalitions in Community Psychology

Lawlor, Jennifer, Zachary Neal, and Kyle Metta. 2020. “What Is a Coalition? A Systematic Review of Coalitions in Community Psychology.” PsyArXiv. August 20. doi:10.31234/osf.io/ba4yw

Abstract: Coalitions have a long history as part of the field of community psychology. While community psychologists often work with coalitions, these entities engage in a wide range of activities and structures that are not well defined within the field. In this paper, we explore the following questions: (1) What are the characteristics of coalitions that community psychologists study? (2) What are the themes in the way authors define coalitions in their work? To address these questions, we conducted a systematic review of articles about coalitions in journals serving community psychologists. Findings suggest coalitions can be characterized by a focus on local level community issues around health and wellness and include a diverse group of stakeholders. Coalitions are defined by a focus on three types of coordination: knowledge coordination, negotiated coordination, and action coordination. These types of coordination are used to address specific problems coalitions encounter and define the goals and techniques appropriate for resolving them.

Between 2002 & 2013 statin use in the US nearly doubled, cholesterol levels are falling, yet cardiovascular deaths appear to be on the rise; statin usage may lead to unhealthy behaviours that may actually increase risks

Hit or miss: the new cholesterol targets. Robert DuBroff, Aseem Malhotra, Michel de Lorgeril. BMJ Evidece-Based Medicine, Aug 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjebm-2020-111413

Abstract: Drug treatment to reduce cholesterol to new target levels is now recommended in four moderate- to high-risk patient populations: patients who have already sustained a cardiovascular event, adult diabetic patients, individuals with low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥190 mg/dL and individuals with an estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk ≥7.5%. Achieving these cholesterol target levels did not confer any additional benefit in a systematic review of 35 randomised controlled trials. Recommending cholesterol lowering treatment based on estimated cardiovascular risk fails to identify many high-risk patients and may lead to unnecessary treatment of low-risk individuals. The negative results of numerous cholesterol lowering randomised controlled trials call into question the validity of using low density lipoprotein cholesterol as a surrogate target for the prevention of cardiovascular disease.

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What to do now

Cardiovascular disease continues to be the leading cause of death worldwide. Between 2002 and 2013 statin use in the US nearly doubled, cholesterol levels are falling, yet cardiovascular deaths appear to be on the rise.30 31 In Sweden, recent widespread and increasing utilisation of statins did not correlate with any significant reduction in acute myocardial infarction or mortality, while in Belgium a very modest reduction in cardiovascular events was reported between 1999 and 2005, but primarily in elderly individuals not taking statins.32 33 These population studies suggest that, despite the widespread use of statins, there has been no accompanying decline in the risk of cardiovascular events or cardiovascular mortality. In fact, there is some evidence that statin usage may lead to unhealthy behaviours that may actually increase the risk of cardiovascular disease.34 35 The evidence presented in this analysis adds to the chorus that challenges our current approach to cardiovascular disease prevention through targeted reductions of LDL-C. Given the lack of clarity on how best to prevent cardiovascular disease, we encourage informed decision-making. Ideally, this includes a discussion of absolute risk reduction and/or number needed to treat at an individual patient level in addition to reviewing the potential benefits and harms of any intervention.

Exploring the Roles of Conformity, Hazard, & Convenience in Risk Mitigation Decisions: An Observational Study of Helmet Use Among Bicyclists and E-scooter Riders in Los Angeles During Two Natural Experiments

Sparks, Adam M., Daniel M. Fessler, and Marlee Zinsser. 2019. “Exploring the Roles of Conformity, Hazard, and Convenience in Risk Mitigation Decisions: An Observational Study of Helmet Use Among Bicyclists and E-scooter Riders in Los Angeles During Two Natural Experiments.” PsyArXiv. October 7. doi:10.31234/osf.io/gspbm

Abstract: Despite the protection offered by bicycle helmets, their use varies substantially across populations of riders. Building on previous efforts to understand helmet use as reflecting tradeoffs between convenience and safety, we explore whether helmet use is influenced by conformity, that is, by a preference to make the same helmet use decision as other riders. If so, an experiment introducing more riders with or without helmets in a specific location might shift helmet use patterns among other nearby riders. We conducted an observational study of helmet use over eight months at five locations across two university campuses in Los Angeles, California, U.S.A. During this time, a bikeshare program and electronic scooter rental services were introduced in the local area. The low use of helmets among riders of these vehicles allow us to treat these as natural experiments testing the conformity hypothesis. Corresponding to the sudden appearance of numerous helmetless e-scooter riders, helmet use declined among riders of ordinary bicycles at the more hazardous study locations, a pattern we cautiously interpret as consistent with a conformity preference among ordinary cyclists traveling long distances along city streets among helmetless e-scooter riders. At the safer locations, helmet use rates increased among ordinary cyclists, which we suggest was driven by vehicle selection decisions, with the most convenience-oriented riders preferring to use e-scooters, leaving a more safety-oriented population of ordinary cyclists. The possibility that social conformity may influence risk mitigation decisions has important implications for designing and measuring the impact of public health interventions. Also of note are are empirical demonstrations that helmet use patterns can vary substantially across seemingly similar populations and over short periods of time

Moral Psychology and Artificial Agents (part 1): Ontologically Categorizing Bio-cultural Humans

Laakasuo, Michael, Anton Berg, Jukka Sundvall, Marianna Drosinou, Volo Herzon, Anton Kunnari, Mika Koverola, et al. 2020. “Moral Psychology and Artificial Agents (part 1): Ontologically Categorizing Bio-cultural Humans.” PsyArXiv. August 19. http://osf.io/29bsp

Abstract: In this chapter, we will provide theoretical background of discussion on issues related to AIs. Some of the main topics, theories and frameworks are mind perception and moral cognition, moral psychology, evolutionary psychology, trans-humanism and ontological categories shaped by evolution.



Pre-print of:
Laakasuo et al. (in press). Moral Psychology and Artificial Agents (Part 1): Ontologically
Categorizing Bio-Cultural Humans. Machine Law, Ethics and Morality in the Age of
Artificial Intelligence. Steven Thompson (ed). New York: Igi Global.

The continued influence effect refers to continuing to rely on misinformation in their reasoning even if the information has been retracted; study of impact of retraction source credibility on this effect

Ecker, Ullrich K. H., and Luke Antonio. 2020. “Can You Believe It? an Investigation into the Impact of Retraction Source Credibility on the Continued Influence Effect.” PsyArXiv. August 20

Abstract: The continued influence effect refers to the finding that people often continue to rely on misinformation in their reasoning even if the information has been retracted. The present study aimed to investigate the extent to which the effectiveness of a retraction is determined by its credibility. In particular, we aimed to scrutinize previous findings suggesting that perceived trustworthiness but not perceived expertise of the retraction source determines a retraction’s effectiveness, and that continued influence arises only if a retraction is not believed. In two experiments, we found that indeed source trustworthiness but not source expertise influences retraction effectiveness, with retractions from low-trustworthiness sources entirely ineffective. We also found that retraction belief is indeed a predictor of continued reliance on misinformation, but that substantial continued influence effects can still occur with retractions designed to be and rated as highly credible.