Saturday, September 12, 2020

Jinping Xi : Swift shift from collective leadership to strongman rule was the result of a widely shared consensus among China’s ruling elite that the regime was facing a severe crisis that necessitated a return to such rule

A Strong Leader for A Time of Crisis: Xi Jinping’s Strongman Politics as A Collective Response to Regime Weakness. Nimrod Baranovitch. Journal of Contemporary China, Jul 13 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2020.1790901

ABSTRACT: Seeking to explain the reasons for the swift shift from collective leadership to strongman rule during Xi Jinping’s early years in office, this article argues that it was the result of a widely shared consensus among China’s ruling elite that the regime was facing a severe crisis that necessitated a return to such rule. This argument challenges the widely held view that the dramatic centralization of power in Xi’s hands was the result mainly of his individual personality, motives, and actions. While many of the factual details that this article presents are not new, it is the first to systematically integrate many of these facts to create a coherent explanation of China’s surprising abandonment of the collective leadership model that goes beyond Xi’s individual role.

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How Strong Leaders are Made: A Combination of Structure and Agency

For many years, some Western experts and liberal Chinese intellectuals and reformist leaders have
urged China to adopt significant political reforms and promote democratization, arguing that this
was the only way that the country would be able to continue to develop and flourish and overcome
the many structural problems that it faced.70 However, as China’s politics under Xi Jinping demonstrates, for many Chinese and particularly among the majority of China’s top-level leaders, this option has obviously not been a desirable one. In fact, as one China observer has put it, the return to
strongman politics under Xi Jinping was actually a ‘return to a more normal political reality in
China’.71 Indeed, ironically, even many of the more liberal and reformist leaders in China of recent
decades have supported the notion of strong, authoritarian leadership, arguing that such leadership
is necessary to advance reform.72 Thus, the choice of the Chinese ruling elite to return to strongman
politics in a time of crisis should come as no surprise. After all, the tendency to centralize political
power in times of crisis is a well-known phenomenon and is certainly not unique to China. Many
dictators and less totalitarian strong leaders in world history have emerged and continue to emerge
in situations of national crisis. Moreover, as history has shown multiple times, in states of emergency,
even in democracies it is a norm, often anchored in the law, to concentrate more power in the hands
of the regime at the expense of citizens’ individual rights and liberties. In light of these general
tendencies, it should come as no surprise that the centralization of political power in a time of crisis
manifests itself in a more radical form in a non-democratic country like China that has always
preferred authoritative forms of government.
As the shift to personalistic rule under Xi Jinping seems to demonstrate, China’s ruling elite still
considered a strongman leader as the best mechanism to overcome the many challenges that their
country currently confronts. From the perspective of China’s political culture, a strong leader can
unite quarreling factions within the political elite by imposing his unchallenged authority. Very much
aware of this role, since he came to power, Xi has repeatedly criticized the cliques and factions within
the Party, and the continuing campaign against corruption that has been implemented under his
command has dealt powerful blows to both factions, signaling that he is above factional politics.73 As an all-powerful leader, Xi can also take decisive and drastic actions to radically transform
a problematic reality without the need to compromise or appease competing sources of power
and interest groups. Furthermore, a strong leader can also create a sense of security among an
anxious society and restore the legitimacy of the regime in the eyes of the public when this
legitimacy is challenged or eroded. Indeed, in authoritarian regimes, the charisma and popularity
of the top leader often serve as one of the regime’s main sources of legitimacy,74 especially in times
when other resources of legitimation are exhausted. In addition to all of these advantages, strong leaders can also project their personal power outward to deter external powers that already pose or
are about to pose a serious threat to their country.
The tendency in China to centralize political power seems to have been strengthened in recent
decades and even more so in recent years as a result of global events. As many of the sources cited in
this article illustrate, China’s leaders consider the collapse of the Soviet Union a disaster that took
place not only because the regime lost its legitimacy, but also because of political reforms and
because the leadership lost its faith in the dominant ideology and the political system. In a similar
vein, many Chinese look at the gloomy outcome of the Arab Spring in Syria, Libya, Egypt, and other
countries and see political chaos, civil war, mass death, and rising poverty, and they find nothing
attractive in this path of failed democratization.
It is quite possible that the return of strongman leadership to China would have taken place long
before Xi Jinping came to power. Favorable conditions for such a return were already in existence
during the years that followed the Tian’anmen crisis of 1989, when the Party’s legitimacy was at its
lowest point since the Cultural Revolution. Indeed, the ‘Mao Craze’ (毛热) that swept China in the
wake of the violent crackdown, during which the country saw a surge of popular nostalgia for the
deceased leader, reflected the yearning of the public and many conservative members of the ruling
elite for an all-powerful leader who would restore a sense of stability, order, and security.75 The
yearning for strong leadership was not confined to popular fads but was also manifested in several
policy changes. Indeed, in the early 1990s the Party retreated from all of former general secretary
Zhao Ziyang’s political reforms, and contrary to the practice that Deng Xiaoping promoted of
decentralizing power in the higher ranks of the Party, all of the three highest political positions
(Party general secretary, chairman of the CMC, and president) were given to Jiang Zemin. Moreover,
after promoting collective leadership for almost a decade, as an immediate reaction to the
Tian’anmen crisis, Deng himself seems to have realized that this model of leadership had its
limitations. Thus, although he did not eliminate collective leadership, already in June 1989 he
came up with the new concept of the ‘core leader’ in a clear attempt to consolidate the authority
of Jiang Zemin and thereby ensure elite cohesion.76
These changes notwithstanding, several conditions prevented the return of strongman leadership
at that time. These factors included the memory of the disastrous Cultural Revolution, which was
still too fresh, Deng’s resistance to such a renaissance and his insistence on proceeding with reforms,
and no less importantly, the fact that the new Party general secretary, Jiang Zemin, did not possess
the personal qualities that are needed to make a strongman leader. However, contrary to the
situation in the post-Tian’anmen years, in 2012/2013 all of the factors that prevented the return of
a strong leader two decades earlier had disappeared. The Cultural Revolution had practically been
forgotten, Deng Xiaoping was not around anymore, China was richer and more confident that
material prosperity could be achieved without political reform, and Xi Jinping had more charisma
than Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, as well as the other necessary personal qualities that are needed to
make a strong leader and which were mentioned in the beginning of this article. Xi was the right man
at the right time, and once he had the support of enough members of China’s ruling elite due to the
severe crisis that the regime was facing, the way was paved for China’s return to one-man rule.
However, while provisional elite support certainly helped empower Xi Jinping in his early years in
office, his moves and actions in recent years suggest that he has taken this opportunity and
consolidated and developed his strongman leadership to a degree that is perhaps beyond the
intentions even of those who supported him. It remains to be seen for how much longer Xi will be
able to hold so much power and still maintain his legitimacy and the broad elite support that he has
enjoyed until recently.

The Washington Consensus, 1970-2015: Despite the unpopularity of the Washington Consensus, its policies reliably raise average incomes; countries that had sustained reform were 16% richer 10 years later

The Washington Consensus Works: Causal Effects of Reform, 1970-2015. Kevin B. Grier, Robin M. Grier. Journal of Comparative Economics, September 8 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2020.09.001

Highlights
• Sustained economic reform significantly raises real GDP per capita over a 5- to 10-year horizon.
• Despite the unpopularity of the Washington Consensus, its policies reliably raise average incomes.
• Countries that had sustained reform were 16% richer 10 years later.

Abstract: Traditional policy reforms of the type embodied in the Washington Consensus have been out of academic fashion for decades. However, we are not aware of a paper that convincingly rejects the efficacy of these reforms. In this paper, we define generalized reform as a discrete, sustained jump in an index of economic freedom, whose components map well onto the points of the old consensus. We identify 49 cases of generalized reform in our dataset that spans 141 countries from 1970 to 2015. The average treatment effect associated with these reforms is positive, sizeable, and significant over 5- and 10- year windows. The result is robust to different thresholds for defining reform and different estimation methods. We argue that the policy reform baby was prematurely thrown out with the neoliberal bathwater.

Keywords: ReformWashington ConsensusRule of lawProperty rightsEconomic development


Effects of the Black Death: Growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, demise of serfdom in Western Europe, decline in the authority of religious institutions, and emergence of stronger states

Jedwab, Remi and Johnson, Noel D. and Koyama, Mark, The Economic Impact of the Black Death (August 18, 2020). SSRN, Aug 18 2020. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3689980

Abstract: The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short-run and the long-run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long-run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe towards the Northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in Western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out.

Keywords: Pandemics; Black Death; Institutions; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Demography; Long-Run Growth; Middle Ages; Europe; Asia
JEL Classification: N00; N13; I15; I14; J11; O10; O43

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Numerous scholars are interested in the emergence of the rule of law and “inclusive institutions” (e.g. Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012, 2019). One aspect of this is the protection of minorities. Finley and Koyama (2018) study the Black Death pogroms in the Holy Roman Empire and show that political decentralization and fragmentation was dangerous for minority groups: the fact that no one ruler had an encompassing interest in protecting Jews made violence more likely. Specifically, using data from Germania Judaica for the entirety of the Holy Roman Empire and covering 340 Jewish communities, Finley and Koyama (2018) construct an ordinal measure of pogrom intensity. They find that the persecution of Jews was more violent in communities governed by bishoprics, archbishoprics, and imperial free cities. Specifically, they had a 20-25% higher “intensity score” meaning that Jews in those cities were more likely to be “wiped out” or “killed in large numbers”. In contrast, Jews were less vulnerable in territories ruled either by the emperor or by one of the major secular electors. These findings suggest that in the absence of the rule of law, minority groups are better protected under an autocrat and that they are especially vulnerable when power is contested.

In addition to reported genetic and hormonal effects, there are cell type–specific sex differences in tissue composition

The impact of sex on gene expression across human tissues. Meritxell Oliva et al. Science  Sep 11 2020:Vol. 369, Issue 6509, eaba3066. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6509/eaba3066

The role of sex in the human transcriptome
In humans, the inheritance of the XX or XY set of sex chromosomes is responsible for most individuals developing into adults expressing male or female sex-specific traits. However, the degree to which sex-biased gene expression occurs in tissues, especially those that do not contribute to characteristic sexually dimorphic traits. is unknown. Oliva et al. examined Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project data and found that 37% of genes in at least one of the 44 tissues studied exhibit a tissue-specific, sex-biased gene expression. They also identified a sex-specific variation in cellular composition across tissues. Overall, the effects of sex on gene expression were small, but they were genome-wide and mostly mediated through transcription factor binding. With sex-biased gene expression associated with loci identified in genome-wide association studies, this study lays the groundwork for identifying the molecular basis of male- and female-based diseases.

Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Many complex human phenotypes, including diseases, exhibit sex-differentiated characteristics. These sex differences have been variously attributed to hormones, sex chromosomes, genotype × sex effects, differences in behavior, and differences in environmental exposures; however, their mechanisms and underlying biology remain largely unknown. The Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project provides an opportunity to investigate the prevalence and genetic mechanisms of sex differences in the human transcriptome by surveying many tissues that have not previously been characterized in this manner.

RATIONALE
To characterize sex differences in the human transcriptome and its regulation, and to discover how sex and genetics interact to influence complex traits and disease, we generated a catalog of sex differences in gene expression and its genetic regulation across 44 human tissue sources surveyed by the GTEx project (v8 data release), analyzing 16,245 RNA-sequencing samples and genotypes of 838 adult individuals. We report sex differences in gene expression levels, tissue cell type composition, and cis expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTLs). To assess their impact, we integrated these results with gene function, transcription factor binding annotation, and genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics of 87 GWASs.

RESULTS
Sex effects on gene expression are ubiquitous (13,294 sex-biased genes across all tissues). However, these effects are small and largely tissue-specific. Genes with sex-differentiated expression are not primarily driven by tissue-specific gene expression and are involved in a diverse set of biological functions, such as drug and hormone response, embryonic development and tissue morphogenesis, fertilization, sexual reproduction and spermatogenesis, fat metabolism, cancer, and immune response. Whereas X-linked genes with higher expression in females suggest candidates for escape from X-chromosome inactivation, sex-biased expression of autosomal genes suggests hormone-related transcription factor regulation and a role for additional transcription factors, as well as sex-differentiated distribution of epigenetic marks, particularly histone H3 Lys27 trimethylation (H3K27me3).

Sex differences in the genetic regulation of gene expression are much less common (369 sex-biased eQTLs across all tissues) and are highly tissue-specific. We identified 58 gene-trait associations driven by genetic regulation of gene expression in a single sex. These include loci where sex-differentiated cell type abundances mediate genotype-phenotype associations, as well as loci where sex may play a more direct role in the underlying molecular mechanism of the association. For example, we identified a female-specific eQTL in liver for the hexokinase HKDC1 that influences glucose metabolism in pregnant females, which is subsequently reflected in the birth weight of the offspring.

CONCLUSION
By integrating sex-aware analyses of GTEx data with gene function and transcription factor binding annotations, we describe tissue-specific and tissue-shared drivers and mechanisms contributing to sex differences in the human transcriptome and eQTLs. We discovered multiple sex-differentiated genetic effects on gene expression that colocalize with complex trait genetic associations, thereby facilitating the mechanistic interpretation of GWAS signals. Because the causative tissue is unknown for many phenotypes, analysis of the diverse GTEx tissue collection can serve as a powerful resource for investigations into the basis of sex-biased traits. This work provides an extensive characterization of sex differences in the human transcriptome and its genetic regulation.


Check also Searching for sex differences. Melissa A. Wilson. Science  Sep 11 2020:Vol. 369, Issue 6509, pp. 1298-1299. DOI: 10.1126/science.abd8340
The behemoth effort, started a decade ago, known as the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) Consortium aims to discover how DNA variation affects gene expression across human tissues (1, 2). As part of this consortium, on page 1331 of this issue, Oliva et al. (3) find that more than one-third of genes show sex-biased expression in at least one tissue. Four other GTEx studies, on pages 1318, 1334, 1333, and 1332 of this issue, respectively, discuss the effects of gene regulation in human tissues (4), identify functional rare genetic variation (5), study predictors of telomere length (6), and report cell type–specific gene regulation (7). What is especially notable about Oliva et al. is the careful analysis, which revealed that in addition to reported genetic and hormonal effects (8), there are cell type–specific sex differences in tissue composition. Furthermore, their work highlights that rather than being strictly dimorphic, interindividual variation results in overlapping distributions of gene expression between the sexes.


Tattooed women perceive themselves as less attractive, & women's self-rated attractiveness impacts whether or not men's tattoos matter when judging attractiveness, trustworthiness, & potential as a father

Effects of gender, self-rated attractiveness, and mate value on perceptions tattoos. Karlyn Molloy, Danielle Wagstaff. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 168, January 1 2021, 110382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110382

Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated that men's tattoos have an effect on viewer's perceptions, with tattooed men perceived as more attractive, masculine, aggressive, dominant, and healthy. However, little research has considered the effect of individual differences on perceptions of tattooed men, despite individual differences affecting mating efforts. In this study, we explored the effect of tattoo ownership on men's and women's perceptions of their own self-rated attractiveness and mate value, and explored the effect of tattoo ownership, self-rated attractiveness and mate value on the relationship between male stimuli tattoo level and eight character judgements. From a sample of 146 men and 299 women, we found that tattooed women perceive themselves as less attractive, and that women's self-rated attractiveness impacts whether or not men's tattoos matter when judging attractiveness, trustworthiness, and potential as a father. While some limitations are evident, this study expands on previous research, demonstrating that men's tattoo possession matters in the context of opposite-sex mating judgements, though may not be as important in judgements of same-sex rivals. Future research should explore the effect of varying tattoo size, style, and location, on perceptions of others.

Keywords: AttractivenessMate selectionBody modificationIndividual differences

4. Discussion
Our study aimed to investigate the extent to which tattoos alter social perceptions of both the self and others, taking into consideration individual differences, and expanding on previous research by Galbarczyk and Ziomkiewicz (2017), and Galbarczyk et al. (2019). This previous research neglected to take into consideration individual variation in tattoo ownership of the participants, nor their self-rated attractiveness and mate value, factors that could influence the judgment of traits important in a mating context. Furthermore, they included only one, small, tattoo on their stimuli.
We hypothesised that tattooed males would rate themselves higher in attractiveness and tattooed females lower in attractiveness than non-tattooed individuals.2Interestingly, men with and without tattoos rated themselves equally attractive. Thus, our study failed to replicate previous research findings (e.g., Swami, 2011). However, tattooed women rated themselves significantly lower in attractiveness in comparison to non-tattooed women, in line with previous research (e.g., Hill, Ogletree, & McCrary, 2016). Women, more so than men, are expected to maintain certain standards of appearance, therefore body pressures are often seen as feminine issues (Coffey, 2013). Despite an increase in popularity, tattoos still breach mainstream appearance norms, especially when the bearer is unable or unwilling to hide their tattoo and/or has numerous large tattoos (Irwin, 2003). Tattoos have traditionally been considered to be a man's activity (Dickson, Dukes, Smith, & Strapko, 2014), therefore women who have tattoos could be regarded as being gender-role violators, and thus are more likely to endure social stigma related to tattoo ownership (Swami & Furnham, 2007). These social pressures could account for decreased self-rated attractiveness ratings by women in our study. Despite the historical stigma, tattooed men have enjoyed greater social acceptance in comparison to tattooed women (e.g., Braunberger, 2000) which could account for null findings in attractiveness rating between tattooed and non-tattooed men.
Based on previous research, we hypothesised that women would rate tattooed male stimuli as more masculine, dominant, aggressive, healthy, and less suitable as a potential father and partner, and that men would rate tattooed stimuli as more attractive, dominant, masculine and aggressive than non-tattooed stimuli. We only found partial support for this hypothesis. Women did rate male stimuli with a tattoo as more masculine, in line with predictions, although men rated male stimuli with a tattoo as less masculine, in contrast to previous research. This difference may have been because of the nature of our tattoo manipulation. In our study, we used a rather large tattoo as the modification, and included three levels of tattoo, rather than the one small tattoo as in Galbarczyk and Ziomkiewicz (2017), and Galbarczyk et al. (2019). It may be that there is an upper limit to the size of tattoo that is perceived as most masculine on a male. For women, the medium-sized tattoo was rated as most attractive, while for male raters, no tattoo was most attractive. Hill et al. (2016) found larger tattoos elicit more negative judgment than smaller tattoos. Individuals with greater tattoo coverage are more likely to experience negative judgment, as increased tattoo expression can be interpreted as more deliberate, and therefore tattoo modification is more likely to be perceived as reflecting a person's character. A medium-sized tattoo may strike the best balance between positive and negative characteristics for women when judging men, so they perceive a medium sized tattoo as most masculine. Men may ascribe less positive characteristics to rivals who possess a medium or large-size tattoo, and so perceive a smaller tattoo as most masculine; however, we did not measure the effects of small tattoos in this study. Further, the tattoos we used in our study were not symmetrical, and symmetry may have had an impact on perceptions. Given the variations in the way that the tattoos are presented, between the variety of studies on tattoos, future research should aim to compare a variety of tattoo types, sizes, and locations, and determine what impacts these factors have on perceptions of people with tattoos.
The only other effect of tattoos had on perceptions of male stimuli was of the perceived ability to be a good father or partner, which decreased as tattoo size increased. Despite only predicting this would matter for women, we saw this change occur regardless of gender, implying men are also able to make value judgements of these characteristics in other men, which was not in line with Galbarczyk and Ziomkiewicz (2017).3 Again, this may have been due to the nature of the tattoo manipulation, implying that larger tattoos have a greater effect on viewer perceptions than a small tattoo. Given that health ratings also did not differ between stimuli, it is important to consider further the theory put forward that tattoos signal immunocompetence, which may not be relevant in the context of large tattoos. Future research should therefore explore the signalling value of various tattoo sizes in an opposite-sex mate attraction versus same-sex rival context.
When accounting for individual differences, we found no effects of stimulus tattoo level on men's ratings. Men who themselves had tattoos did rate the stimuli as more dominant, though no interactions with individual differences emerged, implying participant attributes had only a small effect on perceptions of potential rivals and the features of the rivals themselves had little to none. On the other hand, women's self-rated attractiveness interacted with stimulus tattoo level to affect ratings of attractiveness, trustworthiness, and potential as a father: three ratings that are important when judging a male as a potential romantic partner. Here, we found that as women's self-rated attractiveness increased, men's tattoos became more unappealing, with women rating male stimuli with larger tattoos as less attractive, and less capable as fathers. Further, women with low self-rated attractiveness showed a small but not significant preference for men with tattoos as more trustworthy. Human mate selection is mutual, with self-perceived attractiveness often used to estimate potential mate prospects (e.g, Todd et al., 2007). Given the sex difference in minimal parental investment, it is particularly important for women to weigh carefully the costs and benefits of engaging with any particular potential mate (Buss & Schmitt, 1993). Women who themselves rank high in the mating market (high attractiveness) can afford to be more choosy; whereas women lower in the mating market may have fewer options available (Conroy-Beam, 2018). In this case, mating with a male who potentially possesses more anti-social characteristics (as indicated by tattoo ownership) may be a preferable option. Interestingly, these results do not conform to the hypothesis put forward by Galbarczyk and Ziomkiewicz (2017) that men's tattoos serve as a signal that is more important in a rival context than a mate-attraction context. Here, we saw that male tattoo level had little impact on men's perceptions. On the other hand, women's self-evaluations influenced whether the stimulus features were important or not, which is in line with women's larger investment in offspring, and therefore reflect a cost-benefit analysis.
There are some limitations important to consider in this study. Firstly, we did not obtain as large a sample as Galbarczyk and Ziomkiewicz (2017), which may have limited the strength of the effects observed. That said, the researchers conceded that their effect sizes were small, and we were still able to observe differences in this study, though they were mostly between genders, rather than between tattoo sizes. We also performed a number of statistical analyses on this small sample, which inflates our chance of a Type I error, so we advise to take the results with caution. Secondly, we did not consider the impact of a small tattoo, and only looked at the difference between no tattoo and a medium or large tattoo. It may be that larger tattoos have qualitatively different effects on viewers' perceptions, and so research should explore the effect of varying tattoo sizes, as well as tattoo visibility, and their impact on perceptions. Some of the effects of tattoo size, and even the effects of tattoos in any study, may have more to do with the nature of the tattoo than of being tattooed, per se. Future research should endeavour to compare different tattoo sizes, styles, and symmetry/asymmetry, in order to reveal any nuances in the effect of tattoos on perceptions of others. One other thing which we did not consider in this study was the gendered nature of tattooing. Here, we proposed that tattoos serve a signal relevant in a male-signalling context, but women also possess tattoos. Future research should determine whether women's tattoos also serve a signal of immunocompetence, and what social signalling value women's tattoos possess, given tattoos appear to be associated with various masculine traits. With that said, this research was able to expand on the research of Galbarczyk and Ziomkiewicz, and Galbarczyk et al. (2019), demonstrating that women's individual differences affect their judgements of men with tattoos.

Morningness in males correlated with a higher other-attractiveness-rating & dating desire; the causes of higher mating success in eveningness remains unclear; eveningness is related to a higher choosiness

Chronotype dependent choosiness and mate choice. Naomi Staller, Christoph Randler. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 168, January 1 2021, 110375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110375

Abstract: Chronotype influences the success of mate choice. Evening types reproducibly report higher mating success than morning types. In this study, we directly assessed the reasons for these advantages, hypothesizing the degree of choosiness a person has concerning mate choice being causal. A total of N = 1247 (male = 440/female = 807) heterosexuals participated in an experiment. We defined two facets of choosiness: attractiveness rating and dating desire. Participants rated the attractiveness of opposite sex stimuli and indicated whether they had a desire to date the stimuli or not. Morningness in males correlated with a higher attractiveness-rating and dating desire, while results of evening-orientated males, and females in general were not significant. The causes of higher mating success in eveningness remains unclear. Unexpectedly, we showed that eveningness is related to a higher choosiness.

Keywords: ChronotypeMate choiceChoosinessDating desireRated attractivenessMorningness-eveningness

4. Discussion

Based on the work of Piffer (2010)Gunawardane et al. (2011)Randler et al. (2012) and Kasaeian et al. (2019), we hypothesized that higher mating success in evening types could be the consequence of less choosy behavior. Therefore, we studied rated attractiveness/dating desire together with a set of covariates in an experimental setting to add to previous observational studies. We replicated earlier studies. Number of children and relationship length correlated positively with morningness and negatively with eveningness (cf. Kasaeian et al., 2019). Evening types showed less interest in long-term commitment, measured by relationship length, number of partners, number of children, and propensity of going out (cf. Gunawardane et al., 2011Jankowski et al., 2014Piffer, 2010Randler et al., 2012Randler, Jankowski, et al., 2016). In contrast, morning types were more likely to have a long-term partnership. The evaluation of the covariates basically supports the hypothesis since long-term orientation comes with the need to choose a partner more carefully (to be more selective). Resulting in the consideration, choosiness as a trait could be more related to longtime goal orientation and so, morningness.
However, the main variables (rated attractiveness/dating desire) are inconsistent with these results and the hypothesis. In this study, morning-orientation in males measured by the MESSi was positively correlated with rated attractiveness as well as dating desire, while evening-orientation showed no significant results. We found that only the morningness dimension of the MESSi was related to the attractiveness rating and dating desire, not the eveningness dimension. This supports the psychometric view, that eveningness and morningness are two different dimensions and not two ends of a continuum (Vagos et al., 2019).
In general, these findings contradict the hypothesis. Considering only the male participants, morning-orientation is inversely related to choosiness defined by attractiveness rating and dating desire and therefore cannot explain the higher mating success in evening-oriented ones. For female participants, daytime orientation is not a significant variable at all when attractiveness rating or dating desire is considered. This results in two assertions. First, causes for the higher mating success in evening-oriented could not be clarified by this study and does not seem to be related to choosiness. Second, either evening types are choosier than morning types or the controlled facets attractiveness rating & dating desire are not well representing choosiness. Following these considerations, evening-oriented individuals being choosier could have several reasons. The higher mating success despite their rather choosy behavior could be explained by the correlation between evening-orientation and the propensity of going out. Evening types go out more often than morning types (Kasaeian et al., 2019). Evening types may therefore still have a larger pool of potential partners than morning types. This assumption is supported by the facts that: (1) evening-oriented tend to go out more often (Kasaeian et al., 2019) and therefore encounter more people overall and (2) most sport clubs and other leisure activities (cinema/theatre/concerts etc.) are offered in the evening hours (at least in Germany and therefore applicable for the study population). The sum and option to establish new contacts are important factors in mating success. The probability to find a partner could therefore be higher for evening-oriented, despite their choosier behavior.
It is also conceivable that the biological component of chronotype is overlaid by a socio-economic one. For example, professions that have an attracting effect might be easier to carry out with evening-oriented daytime arrangements and characteristics. For example, compared to health administration students, art and design students reported later bedtime, higher creativity, and a preference for creative activities at night (Wang & Chern, 2008). Creative occupations in the fields of art or music are less restricted by fixed social structures, and therefore are particularly suitable for evening types. These may seem more interesting to the person opposite, than those that are tailored to the chronotype-related characteristics of morning types. Tax consultancy or financial accounting are, due to the inherent market needs, professional fields that must be dealt with starting in the morning. The prerequisites for carrying out this work are therefore both, the early cognitive load as well as conscientiousness and precision. These characteristics are attributed to morning types (Adan et al., 2012). Also, morning-oriented show fewer creative characteristics than evening oriented which may lead to fewer morning types taking up creative careers. Morning-oriented use less imagination and intuition, tend to avoid symbolic and non-concrete content, search for new things less, and are less creative and prepared for new events than evening-oriented (Caci et al., 2004Díaz-Morales, 2007). Furthermore, evening types are more likely to use creative thinking strategies than morning types (Giampietro & Cavallera, 2007). Another alternative explanation might be found in the personality traits related to chronotype. Usually, morning people are more agreeable (Randler et al., 2017), which means that higher attractiveness ratings may reflect the desire to be more polite, not the actual perceived attractiveness. However, this should not result in a higher dating desire.
The higher mating success of evening type males and females could accordingly be based on secondary effects and not the actual daytime orientation affecting both sexes. Choosiness might also be not adequately examined by an attractiveness-rating. In contrast to dating desire which can ultimately end in mating success, rated attractiveness without a desire to date a specific person cannot. Therefore attractiveness-rating might be secondary to this research question. The threshold value of dating desire above which the participants would date the stimuli could be the primary and more important value.
Moreover, it is also possible that choosiness in terms of mating behavior is not adequately reflected by the evaluation of facial stimuli. However, the evaluation of facial stimuli is a widely used method for comparable questions (cf. Little, 2014Little et al., 2011Thornhill & Gangestad, 1999). The cause of higher mating success of evening types could only partly be clarified by the means of this study. In our study design, eveningness in males was a predictor of higher dating desire as well as morningness in females of higher attractiveness rating.

4.1.1.1. Sex differences

Males were older and more often single in our sample. They had more children but were older at first intercourse. The latter was relatively late and differs from the results of other published works (cf. Singh et al., 2000). This may be due to the fact that our study population has a high education (academic background).
Men were more evening-oriented with less distinctiveness, a later midpoint of sleep, and shorter sleep duration than women. These characteristics replicate previous findings (e. g. Randler & Engelke, 2019). Males were less happy with their relationships and had the feeling of being more restricted by their partner. One reason might be the male gender is a predictor for decreased happiness (Nock, 1995). Men had a reduced propensity of going out and were less extraverted than women.

The Collapse and Regeneration of Complex Societies

Peñaherrera-Aguirre M., Figueredo A.J., Hertler S.C. (2020) The Collapse and Regeneration of Complex Societies. In: Multilevel Selection. Palgrave Macmillan, September 3 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49520-6_7

Abstract: The subject of societal collapse is a theme that, due to its political, social, economic, and ecological implications, still generates heated discussions. Researchers interested in developing a general theory of collapse face the challenge of identifying common patterns across human societies. This task is further complicated because multiple publications on the subject employ a case-by-case methodology, within which the causes of collapse are thought to be specific to each society. Such historical particularism persists to this day. Historical contingency is preferred to generalizable explanation. In response, some researchers have instead concentrated on examining how a society’s internal dynamics predict the risk of collapse. For example, a society’s institutional performance, macroeconomic yields, and level of collective action have been thought predictive of its structural integrity under adverse circumstances. Through this lens, external factors may lead to a sudden loss of sociopolitical complexity only when the system’s capacity to address these conditions is compromised. Given variation in societies’ level of cohesion and collective action, the case of societal collapse offers a unique glimpse into multilevel selection operating among social systems. This chapter describes critical elements developed in the collapse literature while providing an overview of the current multilevel selection perspectives on fluctuations in collective action. The present chapter also describes how institutional robustness and cultural innovations contribute to a society’s regeneration capacity after experiencing a collapse.



Check also Hertler S.C., Peñaherrera-Aguirre M., Figueredo A.J. (2020) Theoretical Foundations of Multilevel Selection Among Humans. In: Multilevel Selection. Palgrave Macmillan, Sep 3 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49520-6_3

Abstract: The content of the previous two chapters described mathematical models and presented relevant empirical data pertaining to multilevel selection as a proposed biological universal within the general framework of evolutionary theory. The present chapter turns to phenomena that are believed to apply more specifically to humans. Consistent with the Darwinian principle of continuity, we are not claiming that humans stand alone as somehow separate from the rest of animal nature, given that the differences between human and nonhuman animals are most often differences in degree and not in kind. Nevertheless, there is also a case to be made that all species are to some extent unique and distinguishable from each other based on species-typical characteristics. Following from the principle of continuity, humans are not excepted from the forces of multilevel selection. Nevertheless, humans are unique by virtue of our species-typical characteristics, and so have a unique relationship to multilevel selection deriving from our unique evolutionary history. If we infer correctly, Wilson (2015) concurs with this assessment, figuring among those few authors who recognize the human species as having been particularly susceptible to multilevel selection throughout our evolutionary history. As an explanatory framework, multilevel selection might therefore be most interesting, elaborate, and probable among human populations precisely for the many complex qualities that qualify as human. This section, and all the sections that follow within this chapter, can then be understood to explore the unique properties of humans, both as they were shaped by multilevel selection and as they allowed multilevel selection to assume unprecedented effects and directions. In sum, when simultaneously considering the aforementioned principle of continuity alongside species-typical human universals, one finds certain principles of multilevel selection uniquely applicable to our species and not many others. To fulfill this mandate, we provide prerequisite knowledge of cultural evolution theories, gene-culture coevolution, and cultural group selection before closing with an integrated section embedding group selection within the larger framework of multilevel selection theory.

Friday, September 11, 2020

Greater crying proness in women relative to men are found in wealthier, more democratic, or more feminine countries

Bylsma, L. M., Gračanin, A., & Vingerhoets, A. J. J. M. (2020). A clinical practice review of crying research. Psychotherapy, Sep 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/pst0000342

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1304456093939138562

Abstract: The goal of this clinical practice review is to assess the current state of the theoretical and empirical literature on emotional crying (i.e., crying in response to an emotional stimulus), a topic that has received surprisingly limited attention of behavioral scientists and clinicians. Although the empirical research on emotional crying remains in a nascent state, we draw upon the existing scientific knowledge to provide preliminary suggestions for clinicians on how to interpret and respond to crying in clinical contexts. We also identify research gaps and provide recommendations for further research to improve our understanding of this intriguing and still poorly understood human behavior. We suggest that a better understanding of individual differences in crying behavior and the postulated intraindividual and interindividual functions of crying is of critical importance for clinicians, given its frequent occurrence and notable associations with emotional and social functioning. An improved characterization of this important phenomenon will lead to improvements in clinical assessment, treatment planning, and psychotherapy interventions.

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Greater crying proness in women relative to men are found in wealthier, more democratic, or more feminine countries

Social Class Predicts Emotion Perception and Perspective-Taking Performance in Adults

Social Class Predicts Emotion Perception and Perspective-Taking Performance in Adults. Pia Dietze, Eric D. Knowles. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, April 27, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220914116

Abstract: “Theory of Mind” (ToM; people’s ability to infer and use information about others’ mental states) varies across cultures. In four studies (N = 881), including two preregistered replications, we show that social class predicts performance on ToM tasks. In Studies 1A and 1B, we provide new evidence for a relationship between social class and emotion perception: Higher-class individuals performed more poorly than their lower-class counterparts on the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test, which has participants infer the emotional states of targets from images of their eyes. In Studies 2A and 2B, we provide the first evidence that social class predicts visual perspective taking: Higher-class individuals made more errors than lower-class individuals in the Director Task, which requires participants to assume the visual perspective of another person. Potential mechanisms linking social class to performance in different ToM domains, as well as implications for deficiency-centered perspectives on low social class, are discussed.

Keywords: social class, culture, theory of mind, Director Task, Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test


Mountainous areas were lower on agreeableness, extraversion, neuroticism and conscientiousness but higher on openness to experience

Physical topography is associated with human personality. Friedrich M. Götz, Stefan Stieger, Samuel D. Gosling, Jeff Potter & Peter J. Rentfrow. Nature Human Behaviour (2020). September 7 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0930-x

Abstract: Regional differences in personality are associated with a range of consequential outcomes. But which factors are responsible for these differences? Frontier settlement theory suggests that physical topography is a crucial factor shaping the psychological landscape of regions. Hence, we investigated whether topography is associated with regional variation in personality across the United States (n = 3,387,014). Consistent with frontier settlement theory, results from multilevel modelling revealed that mountainous areas were lower on agreeableness, extraversion, neuroticism and conscientiousness but higher on openness to experience. Conditional random forest algorithms confirmed mountainousness as a meaningful predictor of personality when tested against a conservative set of controls. East–west comparisons highlighted potential differences between ecological (driven by physical features) and sociocultural (driven by social norms) effects of mountainous terrain.


Given the small mean effect size and small-study effects, this meta-analysis gives little support for a bilingual advantage on overall executive function

Gunnerud, H. L., ten Braak, D., Reikerås, E. K. L., Donolato, E., & Melby-Lervåg, M. (2020). Is bilingualism related to a cognitive advantage in children? A systematic review and meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, Sep 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000301

Abstract: Bilingual people are often claimed to have an advantage over monolingual people in cognitive processing owing to their ability to learn and use two languages. This advantage is considered to be related to executive function (EF). However, no consensus exists as to whether this advantage is present in the population or under which conditions it prevails. The present meta-analysis examines the bilingual advantage in EF of children aged 18 years and under for different components of inhibition (hot; rewarding stimuli/cold; neutral stimuli), attention, switching, monitoring, working memory, and planning in 143 independent group comparisons comprising 583 EF effect sizes. The bilingual advantage in overall EF was significant, albeit marginal (g = 0.06), and there were indications of publication bias. A moderator analysis showed significant group differences on EF in favor of bilinguals for studies of children from middle-class socioeconomic backgrounds and studies from one specific lab. The EF components of cold inhibition, switching, and monitoring expressed significant bilingual advantages, but monitoring and cold inhibition were affected by publication bias. As for switching, this remained significant after controlling for publication bias. Thus, given the small mean effect size and small-study effects, this meta-analysis gives little support for a bilingual advantage on overall EF. Still, also after the moderator analysis, there was a large heterogeneity of true effects and a large amount of unexplained heterogeneity in the effect sizes. Thus, there might be bilingual advantages (or disadvantages) under conditions that this study is not able to identify through the analysis of 12 moderators


Partisanship & stereotyping: Learning what car one drives (hybrid/pickup truck), where one buys coffee / eats fast food (Chipotle/Chick-fil-A), or where one works (college/bank) affect our willingness to interact

How the Politicization of Everyday Activities Affects the Public Sphere: The Effects of Partisan Stereotypes on Cross-Cutting Interactions. Amber Hye-Yon Lee. Political Communication, Sep 10 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2020.1799124

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1304392615371198464

ABSTRACT: People use social cues to decide whether they want to interact with others. As everyday life has become more politicized, we now attach political meaning to seemingly apolitical activities, from the food we eat, to the movies and TV shows we watch, to the car we drive. Do these stereotypes affect social behavior? Using two survey experiments, including one with a nationally representative sample, I show that people use apolitical cues to draw inferences about others’ political leanings. More importantly, these inferences impact decisions about which individuals they want to interact with, which lead to reduced cross-party contact as well as cross-cutting political discussion. The findings have important implications for how partisan stereotypes of everyday attributes might indirectly exacerbate political polarization.

KEYWORDS: Political stereotypes, cross-cutting interactions, political polarization

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While these stereotypes are not always accurate, people think they are, and so they use these stereotypes as shortcuts to make sense of others and decide how to react to them in social situations.

We find those who disagree with our art evaluations as more influenced by biases (conformity, financial incentives); reminding us of art preferences as “matters of opinion” reduced this thinking, but did not eliminate it

Seeing the subjective as objective: People perceive the taste of those they disagree with as biased and wrong. Nathan N. Cheek  Shane F. Blackman  Emily Pronin. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, September 11 2020. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2201

Abstract: People think that they see things as they are in “objective reality,” and they impute bias and other negative qualities to those who disagree. Evidence for these tendencies initially emerged in the domain of politics, where people tend to assume that there are objectively correct beliefs and positions. The present research shows that people are confident in the correctness of their views, and they negatively judge those who disagree, even in the seemingly “subjective” domain of art. Across seven experiments, participants evaluated paintings and encountered others who agreed or disagreed with their evaluations. Participants saw others' evaluations as less objective when they clashed with their own, and as more influenced by biasing factors like conformity or financial incentives. These aesthetic preferences felt as objective as political preferences. Reminding people of their belief that artistic preferences are “matters of opinion” reduced this thinking, but did not eliminate it. These findings suggest that people's convictions of their own objectivity are so powerful as to extend to domains that are typically regarded as “subjective.”





These studies confirm pets can be perpetrators of rejection and such rejection hurts similarly to if a human perpetrated it

Stephanie B. Richman (2020). Man's Best Friend? The Effects of Being Rejected by a Pet. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology: Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 498-522.
https://doi.org/10.1521/jscp.2020.39.6.498

Abstract
Introduction: People can be rejected by friends, strangers, hated outgroups, or computer simulations. The present research examines whether people can be rejected by pets.

Methods: Two studies examined whether people can feel rejected by pets and how this affects their mood, fundamental needs, and aggression. Participants in Study 1 were directly rejected by a pet using an adapted version of the video message paradigm, and then reported on their mood, fundamental needs, and aggression. Study 2 directly compared differences in needs when writing about a rejection experience by a pet, a rejection experience by a person, and a control experience.

Results: Study 1 confirmed that people can feel rejected by their pets by demonstrating that those who were rejected felt more negatively and less positively and had decreased need satisfaction, however they did not experience any changes in their aggression. Finally, in Study 2, people who were rejected by a pet or by a person experienced decreased need satisfaction as compared to a control experience.

Discussion: Ultimately, these studies confirm pets can be perpetrators of rejection and such rejection hurts similarly to if a human perpetrated it. This may add to the growing body of research suggesting that pets do not provide uniformly positive effects on people.

KEYWORDS: social exclusion, pets, emotions


This research documents a perfection premium in evaluative judgments wherein individuals disproportionately reward perfection on an attribute compared to near-perfect values on the same attribute

The Perfection Premium. Mathew S. Isaac, Katie Spangenberg. Social Psychological and Personality Science, September 10, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550620944313

Abstract: This research documents a perfection premium in evaluative judgments wherein individuals disproportionately reward perfection on an attribute compared to near-perfect values on the same attribute. For example, individuals consider a student who earns a perfect score of 36 on the American College Test to be more intelligent than a student who earns a near-perfect 35, and this difference in perceived intelligence is significantly greater than the difference between students whose scores are 35 versus 34. The authors also show that the perfection premium occurs because people spontaneously place perfect items into a separate mental category than other items. As a result of this categorization process, the perceived evaluative distance between perfect and near-perfect items is exaggerated. Four experiments provide evidence in favor of the perfection premium and support for the proposed underlying mechanism in both social cognition and decision-making contexts.

Keywords: perfection, categorization, numerical cognition, social cognition


Learning have long been implicated in influencing eating behavior; memory of recent eating modulates future food consumption; overweight and obesity is associated with impaired memory performance

Seitz, Benjamin M., A. J. Tomiyama, and Aaron Blaisdell. 2020. “Eating Behavior as a New Frontier in Memory Research.” PsyArXiv. September 11. doi:10.31234/osf.io/ry4nv

Abstract: The study of memory is commonly associated with neuroscience, aging, education, and eyewitness testimony. Here we discuss how eating behavior is also heavily intertwined—and yet considerably understudied in its relation to memory processes. Both are influenced by similar neuroendocrine signals (e.g., leptin and ghrelin) and are dependent on hippocampal functions. While learning processes have long been implicated in influencing eating behavior, recent research has shed light on how memory of recent eating modulates future food consumption. In humans, overweight and obesity is associated with impaired memory performance, and studies in rodents (and to a lesser extent humans) show that dietary-induced obesity causes rapid decrements to memory. Lesions to the hippocampus not only disrupt memory, but also induce obesity, highlighting a cyclic relationship between obesity and memory impairment. Enhancing memory of eating has been shown to reduce future eating and yet, very little is known about what influences memory of eating or how memory of eating differs from memory for other behaviors. We discuss recent advancements in these areas and highlight fruitful research pursuits afforded by combining the study of memory with the study of eating behavior.


Thursday, September 10, 2020

When there is no alternative, boredom increases sadistic behavior across the board, even among individuals low in dispositional sadism

Pfattheicher, Stefan, Ljiljana B. Lazarevic, Erin C. Westgate, and Simon Schindler. 2020. “On the Relation of Boredom and Sadistic Aggression.” PsyArXiv. September 9. doi:10.31234/osf.io/r67xg

Abstract: What gives rise to sadism? While sadistic behavior (i.e., harming others for pleasure) is well-documented, past empirical research is nearly silent regarding the psychological factors behind it. We help close this gap by suggesting that boredom plays a crucial role in the emergence of sadistic tendencies. Across nine diverse studies, we provide correlational and experimental evidence for a link between boredom and sadism. We demonstrate that sadistic tendencies are more pronounced among people who report chronic proneness to boredom in everyday life (Studies 1A-1F, N = 1780). We then document that this relationship generalizes across a variety of important societal contexts, including online trolling; sadism in the military; sadistic behavior among parents; and sadistic fantasies (Studies 2-5, N = 1740). Finally, we manipulate boredom experimentally and show that inducing boredom increases sadistic behavior (i.e., killing worms; destroying other participants’ pay; Studies 6-9, N = 4097). However, alternatives matter: When several behavioral alternatives are available, boredom only motivates sadistic behavior among individuals with high dispositional sadism (Study 7). Conversely, when there is no alternative, boredom increases sadistic behavior across the board, even among individuals low in dispositional sadism (Studies 8 & 9). We further show that excitement and novelty seeking mediate the effects of boredom, and that boredom not only promotes sadistic (proactive) aggression, but reactive aggression as well (Study 9). Overall, the present work contributes to a better understanding of sadism and highlights the destructive potential of boredom. We discuss implications for basic research on sadism and boredom, as well as applied implications for society at large.

Check also Psychopathy subfactors distinctively predispose to dispositional and state-level of sadistic pleasure. Jill Lobbestael, Martijn van Teffelen, Roy F. Baumeister. Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry, Feb 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/02/38-of-subjects-derived-pleasure-from.html

Development of sex differences in the human brain: Systematic sex difference in brain structure ocurred already during childhood, and subsequent increase of this difference during adolescence was large

Development of sex differences in the human brain. Florian Kurth , Christian Gaser & Eileen Luders. Cognitive Neuroscience, Sep 8 2020. https://doi.org/10.1080/17588928.2020.1800617

ABSTRACT: Sex differences in brain anatomy have been described from early childhood through late adulthood, but without any clear consensus among studies. Here, we applied a machine learning approach to estimate ‘Brain Sex’ using a continuous (rather than binary) classifier in 162 boys and 185 girls aged between 5 and 18 years. Changes in the estimated sex differences over time at different age groups were subsequently calculated using a sliding window approach. We hypothesized that males and females would differ in brain structure already during childhood, but that these differences will become even more pronounced with increasing age, particularly during adolescence. Overall, the classifier achieved a good performance, with an accuracy of 80.4% and an AUC of 0.897 across all age groups. Assessing changes in the estimated sex with age revealed a growing difference between the sexes with increasing age. That is, the very large effect size of d = 1.2 which was already evident during childhood increased even further from age 11 onward, and eventually reached an effect size of d = 1.6 at age 17. Altogether these findings suggest a systematic sex difference in brain structure already during childhood, and a subsequent increase of this difference during adolescence.

KEYWORDS: Adolescence, brain, childhood, development, machine learning, puberty, relevance vector, sex


High Replicability of Newly-discovered Social-behavioral Findings Is Achievable; past failures to replicate may be attributable to departures from optimal procedures

Protzko, John, Jon Krosnick, Leif D. Nelson, Brian A. Nosek, Jordan Axt, Matthew Berent, Nick Buttrick, et al. 2020. “High Replicability of Newly-discovered Social-behavioral Findings Is Achievable.” PsyArXiv. September 10. doi:10.31234/osf.io/n2a9x

Abstract: Failures to replicate evidence of new discoveries have forced scientists to ask whether this unreliability is due to suboptimal implementation of optimal methods or whether presumptively optimal methods are not, in fact, optimal. This paper reports an investigation by four coordinated laboratories of the prospective replicability of 16 novel experimental findings using current optimal practices: high statistical power, preregistration, and complete methodological transparency. In contrast to past systematic replication efforts that reported replication rates averaging 50%, replication attempts here produced the expected effects with significance testing (p<.05) in 86% of attempts, slightly exceeding maximum expected replicability based on observed effect size and sample size. When one lab attempted to replicate an effect discovered by another lab, the effect size in the replications was 97% that of the original study. This high replication rate justifies confidence in rigor enhancing methods and suggests that past failures to replicate may be attributable to departures from optimal procedures.


Single, childless women in psychology programs (other than clinical psychology) are 8.7% more likely than single, childless men to obtain a tenure-track job within six years of receiving their doctorate; men in the field are twice as likely to self-cite

The Future of Women in Psychological Science. June Gruber et al. Perspectives On Psychological Science, Sep 2020. https://news.nd.edu/assets/402219/the_future_of_women_in_psychological_science.pdf

Abstract
There has been extensive discussion about gender gaps in representation and career advancement in the sciences. However, psychological science itself has yet to be the focus of discussion or systematic review, despite our field’s investment in questions of equity, status, well-being, gender bias, and gender disparities. In the present article, we consider 10 topics relevant for women’s career advancement in psychological science. We focus on issues that have been the subject of empirical study, discuss relevant evidence within and outside of psychological science, and draw on established psychological theory and social-science research to begin to chart a path forward. We hope that better understanding of these issues within the field will shed light on areas of existing gender gaps in the discipline and areas where positive change has happened, and spark conversation within our field about how to create lasting change to mitigate remaining gender differences in psychological science.

Keywords: women, gender, gender roles, bias, psychology, science

Popular version: First gender parity review of psychological science shows some successes amid persistent problems. Colleen Sharkey. September 09, 2020. https://news.nd.edu/news/first-gender-parity-review-of-psychological-science-shows-some-successes-amid-persistent-problems/

Conservatives tended to show a greater interest in preserving their youthfulness, & had more resistant attitudes toward aging; & exhibited higher preferences for anti-aging benefits, compared to liberals & moderates

The Relationship between Political Ideology and the Pursuit of Staying Forever Young. Ga-Eun (Grace) Oh. Journal of Population Ageing (2020). Sep 5 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12062-020-09302-6

Abstract: In an era defined by an aging population, the desire to look younger is so great, that the anti-aging industry is expected to grow by hundreds of billions of dollars within only a few years’ time. This research aims to investigate how the increasing interest to look younger is related to political ideology. We propose that accepting the ideal beauty of youthful bodies and pursuing physical youthfulness would be more prevalent among conservatives. We build this upon previous research showing that political conservatism is related to the acceptance of norms and values, as well as having strict boundaries for social perceptions and sensitivity to threat and losses. We conducted a pilot study which revealed that the queries related to anti-aging were more popular in states where political conservatism was higher in the US. Moreover, a survey among American participants revealed that conservatives tended to show a greater interest in preserving their youthfulness, and that they had more resistant attitudes toward aging. Moreover, they exhibited higher preferences for anti-aging benefits, compared to liberals and moderates. These findings contribute to extant literature on political psychology, body ideal, and ageism by demonstrating the relationship between political ideology and the pursuit of youthfulness, which is a neglected but critical dimension of the beauty ideal.


145 countries: subjective well-being is minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age 50

Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries. David G. Blanchflower. Journal of Population Economics (2020). Sep 9 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-020-00797-z

Abstract: A large empirical literature has debated the existence of a U-shaped happiness-age curve. This paper re-examines the relationship between various measures of well-being and age in 145 countries, including 109 developing countries, controlling for education and marital and labor force status, among others, on samples of individuals under the age of 70. The U-shape of the curve is forcefully confirmed, with an age minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age 50 in separate analyses for developing and advanced countries as well as for the continent of Africa. The happiness curve seems to be everywhere. While panel data are largely unavailable for this issue, and the findings using such data largely confirm the cross-section results, the paper discusses insights on why cohort effects do not drive the findings. I find the age of the minima has risen over time in Europe and the USA.


Conclusions

No ifs, no buts, well-being is U-shaped in age. The average age at which the U-shaped minimized across the 477 country-level estimates reported here is 48.3. It is in rich and poor countries.
I found evidence of the nadir in happiness in one hundred and forty-five countries, including one hundred and nine developing and thirty-six developed. I found it in Europe, Asia, North and South America, Australasia, and Africa. I identified it in all but six of the fifty-one European countries.Footnote26 I have a well-being U-shape for every one of the thirty-five member countries of the OECD.Footnote27 I have it for 138/193 member countries of the United Nations.
I found the well-being U-shape in English-speaking countries and non-English-speaking countries. A U-shape is revealed in countries ranked highly in the CIA World Factbook for countries with both high and low life expectancy at birth.Footnote28 I found it in twelve countries ranked in the top twenty for life expectancy of 82 or more.Footnote29 I also found a U-shape in ten countries in the bottom twenty for life expectancy of 223 countries in the world according to the CIA.Footnote30 The curve’s trajectory holds true in countries where the median wage is high and where it is not and where people tend to live longer and where they don’t.
I found additional evidence from an array of attitudinal questions that were worded slightly differently. Evidence of a U-shape was found across European countries in questions relating to an individual’s finances as well as to the state of the economy and democracy and how public services work. In Africa, I used a question that development scholars had used relating to living standards and found a U-shape for thirty African countries. This suggests the U-curve in age may have much broader applicability than just in well-being data. Given the robustness of these findings, it remains a puzzle why so many psychologists continue to suggest that well-being is unrelated to age.
People are struggling. In the USA, deaths of despair are most likely to occur in the middle-aged years, and the patterns are robustly associated with unhappiness and stress. Across countries, chronic depression and suicide rates peak in midlife. Those in middle age in the years since 2008 were most vulnerable to a once-in-a-generation financial shock especially if they were poor and with low levels of education. In the USA, the employment rate in 2020 was below that in 2008. In the UK, real wages were below pre-recession levels at the onset of the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. The financial crisis did not suddenly create frailty in downtrodden communities but simply exposed underlying problems with deep roots in the long decades before. It seems it is normal to have a midlife dip in well-being, but for many, especially those with the least skills, with little social support and few if any savings, that was too much to bear when a giant downturn came along in 2008.
The finding of a zenith in well-being in midlife likely adds important support to the notion that being in one’s forties and fifties exacerbates vulnerability to disadvantages and shocks.Footnote31 That is people with disabilities, less education, broken families, lost jobs, and so on are likely also to get hit hardest by the effects of aging. Some might face downward spirals as age and life circumstances interact. Many will not be getting the social/emotional support they need, because midlife is the worst time to present vulnerability. They will be dealing with shame and isolation, in addition to the first-order effects of whatever they are coping with in normal times at a midlife low is tough. It is made much harder when combined with a deep downturn especially when the speed of recovery and the length of lockdown is uncertain.
Interdisciplinary research is clearly needed into how to stem the worst manifestations of the midlife nadir in well-being, such as depression, lack of sleep, suicide, and higher tendency to drug and alcohol abuse. The fact that the happiness zenith occurs in developed and developing countries and it has even been found in great apes (Weiss et al. 2012) suggests there may be something deeply engrained perhaps in the genes.
The pandemic is global. Vulnerable individuals and communities around the world will be devastated by the shock, because of both job and income loss but also from bereavement. The prime aged with low levels of happiness already are especially at risk.
The happiness curve is found in 145 countries. No myth.

Caffeine Increases the Reinforcing Efficacy of Alcohol, an Effect that is Independent of Dopamine D2 Receptor Function

Caffeine Increases the Reinforcing Efficacy of Alcohol, an Effect that is Independent of Dopamine D2 Receptor Function. Sarah E Holstein, Gillian A. Barkell, Megan R. Young. bioRxiv, Sep 8 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.04.283465

Abstract: The rising popularity of alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AmEDs) has become a significant public health concern, with AmED users reporting higher levels of alcohol intake than non-AmED users. One mechanism proposed to explain heightened levels of alcohol intake in AmED users is that the high levels of caffeine found in energy drinks may increase the reinforcing properties of alcohol, an effect which may be dependent on interactions between adenosine signaling pathways and the dopamine D2 receptor. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to confirm whether caffeine increases the reinforcing efficacy of alcohol using both fixed ratio (FR) and progressive ratio (PR) designs, and to investigate a potential role of the dopamine D2 receptor in caffeine's reinforcement-enhancing effects. Male Long Evans rats were trained to self-administer a sweetened alcohol or sucrose solution on an FR2 schedule of reinforcement. Pretreatment with caffeine (5-10 mg/kg) significantly increased operant responding for the sweetened alcohol reinforcer, but not sucrose. PR tests of motivation for alcohol or sucrose likewise confirmed a caffeine-dependent increase in motivation for a sweetened alcohol solution, but not sucrose. However, the D2 receptor antagonist eticlopride did not block the reinforcement-enhancing effects of caffeine using either an FR or PR schedule of reinforcement. Taken together, these results support the hypothesis that caffeine increases the reinforcing efficacy of alcohol, which may explain caffeine-induced increases in alcohol intake. However, the reinforcement-enhancing effects of caffeine appear to be independent of D2 receptor function.

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

In sum, personality is a powerful predictor of life outcomes with few moderated associations, above economic and social indicators

Beck, Emorie D., and Joshua J. Jackson. 2020. “A Mega-analysis of Personality Prediction: Robustness and Boundary Conditions.” PsyArXiv. September 9. doi:10.31234/osf.io/vsm9y

Abstract: Decades of studies identify personality traits as an important predictor of life outcomes. However, previous investigations of personality-outcome associations have not taken a principled approach to covariate use or other sampling strategies to ensure the robustness of personality-outcome associations. The result is that it is unclear (1) whether personality predicts important outcomes after accounting for a range of background variables, (2) for whom and when personality predictions hold, and 3) which background variables are most important to account for. The present study examines the robustness and boundary conditions of personality prediction using the Big Five to predict 14 health, social, education/work, and societal outcomes across eight different person- and study-level moderators using individual participant data from 171,395 individuals across 10 longitudinal panel studies in a mega-analytic framework. Robustness and boundary conditions were systematically tested using two approaches: propensity score matching and specification curve analysis. Three findings emerged: First, personality traits remain a robust predictor of life outcomes. Second, the effects generalize, as there are few moderators of personality-outcome associations. Third, robustness was differential across covariate choice in nearly half of the tested models, with the inclusion or exclusion of some of these flipping the direction of association. In sum, personality is a powerful predictor of life outcomes with few moderated associations. However, researchers need to be careful in their choices of covariates. We discuss how these findings can inform personality prediction, as well as recommendations for covariate inclusion.



No Fans, No Home Advantage. Sport Psychological Effects of Missing Supporters on Football Teams in European Top Leagues

Leitner, Michael C., and Fabio Richlan. 2020. “No Fans - No Home Advantage. Sport Psychological Effects of Missing Supporters on Football Teams in European Top Leagues.” PsyArXiv. September 9. doi:10.31234/osf.io/jqus9

Abstract
Introduction. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, European top football (soccer) leagues played the final rounds of season 2019/20 without or strongly limited attendance of supporters (i.e., “ghost games”). From a sport psychological perspective this situation poses a unique opportunity to investigate the crowd’s influence on sports professionals’ behavior and performance.
Methods. A total of 1286 matches - played in the top leagues of Spain, England, Germany, Italy, Russia, Turkey, Austria and the Czech Republic - were analyzed for result, points, goals, fouls, bookings and reason for booking and contrasted between respective games of season 2018/19 (regular attendance) and season 19/20 (“ghost games”).
Results. There are three main findings. First, the marked home advantage identified in the regular 2018/19 season vanishes almost completely in the “ghost games” of the 2019/20 season. Second, home teams lose significantly more matches, whereas away teams win significantly more matches in “ghost games” compared to regular games. Third, home teams are booked significantly more often with yellow cards for committing fouls in “ghost games” relative to regular games.
Conclusion. We conclude that missing supporters in professional elite football leagues dissolve the “home advantage” effect. The missing support of a “home crowd” has also a direct effect on the experience, behavior and performance of home teams. Therefore home teams tend to compensate with increased aggressive behavior, resulting directly in more fierce tackles and ultimately in significantly more yellow cards awarded for foul play.

Face cells are not passive detectors of a particular constellation of low-level visual characteristics [but] can infer the presence of a face from the association with other objects

What does a “face cell” want?’ J. Taubert, S.G. Wardle, L.G.Ungerleider. Progress in Neurobiology, September 9 2020, 101880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pneurobio.2020.101880

Highlights
• We review the evidence that face cells respond more to faces than objects.
• We show evidence that face patches respond to objects with illusory facial features.
• This approach connects the response of face cells to visual perception.

Abstract: In the 1970s Charlie Gross was among the first to identify neurons that respond selectively to faces, in the macaque inferior temporal (IT) cortex. This seminal finding has been followed by numerous studies quantifying the visual features that trigger a response from face cells in order to answer the question; what do face cells want? However, the connection between face-selective activity in IT cortex and visual perception remains only partially understood. Here we present fMRI results in the macaque showing that some face patches respond to illusory facial features in objects. We argue that to fully understand the functional role of face cells, we need to develop approaches that test the extent to which their response explains what we see.