Children with relatively high narcissism levels tend to emerge as leaders, even though they may not excel as leaders

Narcissism and Leadership in Children. Eddie Brummelman, Barbara Nevicka, Joseph M. O’Brien. Psychological Science, February 3, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620965536

Rolf Degen's take: Narcissistic children often attained the leadership position in the classroom even though they did not possess the leadership qualities they thought themselves to have.

Abstract: Some leaders display high levels of narcissism. Does the link between narcissism levels and leadership exist in childhood? We conducted, to our knowledge, the first study of the relationship between narcissism levels and various aspects of leadership in children (N = 332, ages 7–14 years). We assessed narcissism levels using the Childhood Narcissism Scale and assessed leadership emergence in classrooms using peer nominations. Children then performed a group task in which one child was randomly assigned as leader. We assessed perceived and actual leadership functioning. Children with higher narcissism levels more often emerged as leaders in classrooms. When given a leadership role in the task, children with higher narcissism levels perceived themselves as better leaders, but their actual leadership functioning did not differ significantly from that of other leaders. Specification-curve analyses corroborated these findings. Thus, children with relatively high narcissism levels tend to emerge as leaders, even though they may not excel as leaders.

Keywords: narcissism, leadership, childhood, open data, open materials

Discussion

Our randomized study examined the relationship between narcissism levels and various aspects of leadership in childhood. Narcissism was assessed as a continuous personality trait using the Childhood Narcissism Scale (Thomaes et al., 2008). Children with higher narcissism levels more often emerged as leaders in their classrooms and had more positive views of their own leadership functioning. Yet when they actually had to lead a group, their leadership functioning did not differ significantly from that of other leaders. Indeed, as leaders, children with higher narcissism levels did not differ significantly from other leaders in how much leadership behavior they displayed, how positively they were perceived by their followers, or how their group performed. Specification-curve analyses demonstrated the robustness of our findings.

Theoretical implications

Children with relatively high narcissism levels tended to emerge as leaders in their classrooms, even though they did not actually excel as leaders. How is that possible? According to evolutionary theories of self-deception (von Hippel & Trivers, 2011), self-deception has evolved to facilitate interpersonal deception. Because children with relatively high narcissism levels truly believe they make amazing leaders, they may confidently convince others of their leadership skills without having to suppress or hide any self-doubt. These children may thus acquire leadership positions and other social resources.

What is unique about narcissism and leadership in childhood? Like their adult counterparts (Grijalva et al., 2015), children with relatively high levels of narcissism tend to emerge as leaders. Yet unlike their adult counterparts (Nevicka, Ten Velden, et al., 2011), children with relatively high narcissism levels in leadership roles do not tend to significantly harm their group’s performance. Narcissism may have fewer interpersonal costs in childhood than in adulthood (Poorthuis et al., 2019), perhaps because children are generally less socially dominant than adults (Roberts et al., 2006), making them less inclined to act against their group’s interests.

Research in adults suggests that narcissism levels are underpinned by agentic and antagonistic traits (Back & Morf, 2018; Krizan & Herlache, 2018). The association between narcissism levels and leadership may be driven, in part, by agentic traits (e.g., self-confidence; Grijalva et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2013). For example, when adults with relatively high narcissism levels enter a new peer group, their agentic traits predict initial increases in popularity (Leckelt et al., 2015). In our study, agentic traits did not significantly mediate the association between narcissism levels and leadership emergence. Agentic traits did, however, fully mediate the association between narcissism levels and self-perceived leadership functioning. Thus, agentic traits helped explain why children with higher narcissism levels perceived themselves more favorably as leaders—an important step toward developing a leadership identity (Murphy & Johnson, 2011).

Strengths, limitations, and future directions

Strengths of our study include its developmental focus, its experimental design, and its multimethod and multisource assessments of leadership functioning. Our study also has limitations. First, our study was not preregistered. Although specification-curve analyses demonstrate the robustness of our findings, we call for well-powered replications. Second, the nature of childhood leadership is understudied. We captured leadership emergence using peer nominations and captured leadership functioning using a collaborative task (Gummerum et al., 2014). Supporting the task’s validity, results showed that leaders displayed more leadership behavior than did their followers, and the more leadership behavior they displayed, the better their group performed. Also, followers rated leaders in better-performing groups as more effective. We call for more research on the construct validity of childhood leadership. For example, are more popular children also more likely to emerge as leaders? And does children’s leadership functioning vary across contexts (e.g., high vs. low intergroup competition)?

Our research also points to new research directions. An exciting direction will be to examine leadership as it emerges naturally in groups and develops across the life span. In our study, we randomly assigned one child to be the leader. Would children with relatively high narcissism levels perform better as leaders and would they be more valued by their followers when they have truly earned their leadership roles? If so, would they be more likely to become successful leaders in adulthood? And would their success be driven by their agentic or antagonistic traits (Leckelt et al., 2015)? Research has begun to examine how adults with relatively high narcissism levels attain career success, and how success, in turn, shapes them (Wille, Hofmans, Lievens, Back, & De Fruyt, 2019). Addressing these issues will elucidate how narcissism levels and leadership intersect across the life span.

Foreign-born youth reported significantly more internalizing problems & fewer externalizing problems than US-born youth

The Immigrant Paradox in the Problem Behaviors of Youth in the United States: A Meta‐analysis. Jacqueline L. Tilley  Stanley J. Huey Jr.  JoAnn M. Farver  Mark H.C. Lai  Crystal X. Wang. Child Development, February 2 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13542

Abstract: This meta‐analysis synthesizes the empirical data on problem behaviors among foreign‐ (G1) and U.S‐born (G2+) youth and explores the effects of immigrant status on youth internalizing and externalizing problems. A random effects meta‐regression with robust variance estimates summarized effect sizes for internalizing and externalizing problems across 91 studies (N = 179,315, Mage = 13.98). Results indicated that G1 youth reported significantly more internalizing problems (g = .06), and fewer externalizing problems than G2+ youth (g = −.06). Gender and sample type moderated the effects. The findings provide a first‐step toward reconciling mixed support for the immigrant paradox by identifying for whom and under what conditions the immigrant experience serves as a risk or protective factor for youth.

Lower early androgen exposure after the first trimester contributes to male nonconformal gender role behaviors in childhood

Shirazi, Talia, Heather Self, Kevin Rosenfield, Khytam Dawood, Lisa Welling, Rodrigo Cardenas, J. M. Bailey, et al. 2021. “Low Perinatal Androgens Predict Recalled Childhood Gender Nonconformity in Men.” PsyArXiv. February 1. doi:10.31234/osf.io/whtpz

Abstract: The contributions of gender socialization and direct hormonal action on the brain in the development of human behavioral sex differences are subjects of intense scientific and social interest. Prior research indicates masculinized behavioral patterns in individuals with high prenatal androgen exposure raised as girls, but complementary evidence regarding individuals with low prenatal androgens raised as boys is critically lacking. We investigated recalled childhood gender nonconformity (CGN) in men (n = 65) and women (n = 32) with isolated GnRH deficiency (IGD) and typically developing men (n = 463) and women (n = 1207). IGD is characterized by low or absent gonadal hormone production after the first trimester of gestation until hormone replacement therapy initiation around the time of puberty, but external appearance is concordant with chromosomal and gonadal sex. Compared to typically developing men, men with IGD reported higher CGN, particularly if they also reported cryptorchidism at birth, a marker of low perinatal androgens. Women with IGD did not differ from typically developing women. These results suggest that early androgen exposure after the first trimester contributes to male-typical gender role behaviors in childhood.

Undergraduates mistakenly believed that liberal students at their university recycled more than conservatives; inaccurate meta-beliefs may drive political polarization

Collective Responses to Global Challenges: The Social Psychology of Pro-Environmental Action. Markus Barth et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology, February 3 2021, 101562, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101562

Rolf Degen's take: US participants underestimated the actual sustainable actions of conservatives in comparison to liberals.

Abstract: The world faces one of its greatest challenges in climate change. As a global challenge, climate change demands a global response. A psychological approach with the goal to motivate large groups to engage in concerted action will need both, a perspective focused on individual factors and a perspective focused on the collective factors. The social identity approach is a promising and underutilized theoretical basis for the latter. In this special issue, we have brought together new and thought-provoking work on the effects of collective-level variables on pro-environmental action that builds on the social identity approach. This editorial will introduce the core idea of the approach and it will argue for its advantages. We will summarize important previous work on some of the essential variables of the approach and we will briefly introduce the contributions to this special issue which will hopefully stimulate more work in the years ahead.

Keywords: social identityclimate changepro-environmental action

Political ingroup conformity and pro-environmental behavior: Evaluating the evidence from a survey and mousetracking experiments. Nathaniel Geiger et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology, Volume 72, December 2020, 101524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101524

Highlights

• Four studies looked at the effect of political ingroup norms on recycling behavior.

• Study 1 demonstrated that university students’ perceptions of ingroup norms predicted self-reported recycling behavior.

• Studies 2–4 examined effects of normative feedback on computerized “recycling behavior” using mousetracking software.

• Results were inconsistent (effects found in Studies 2 and 3, but not 4) but suggest the utility of this novel paradigm.

Abstract: Previous work reveals that political orientation is a relevant social identity for many people and that the desire to conform to political ingroup norms can drive belief and behavior change. Because pro-environmental behaviors are viewed as stereotypically liberal in the US, American conservatives may be less likely to engage in pro-environmental behavior, particularly when political identity and normative information are made salient. In four studies, we examine whether heightening the salience of political identity and providing information that one is conforming to or failing to conform to political group norms influences engagement in a pro-environmental behavior (recycling). Study 1 showed that undergraduates falsely believed that liberal students at their university recycled more than conservatives. In turn, while liberal and moderate students' self-reported recycling behavior was predicted by their perceptions of liberals' (but not conservatives') behavior, conservative students' behavior was predicted by perceptions of other conservatives' (but not liberals’) behavior. Studies 2–4 use a novel computerized recycling task and mouse-tracking software to examine whether, among politically conservative Americans, receiving feedback that their recycling behavior is inconsistent with stereotypic ingroup norms modifies behavior and motivates individuals to “recycle” less in the computerized task. In Studies 2 (university student sample) and 3 (preregistered; MTurk worker sample), those who received this feedback adjusted their automatic, but not deliberate responses, although patterns differed slightly between studies. However, in Study 4 (preregistered; MTurk worker sample), this effect was not found. Collectively, these studies suggest that inaccurate meta-beliefs may drive political polarization with respect to pro-environmental behavior, but inconsistencies in results across studies leave open questions about how they do so. This research also contributes to the literature by introducing new methodologies to study pro-environmental decision-making processes.

Keywords: ConformitySocial identityPolitical identityPro-environmental behaviorDecision-making

Data show that while the food and beverage service sector as a whole grew by 17.7%, the bar sector decreased by 10.5%; the food and beverage service industry declined in 28 of 30 municipalities under study

Mattson, Greggor. 2021. “The Decline of Bars and Drinking Establishments, 2006-2016.” SocArXiv. February 2. doi:10.31235/osf.io/jrpnd

Abstract: The growth of the food and beverage service industry in the 2010s obscured the decline of one of its sectors: bars and drinking establishments with limited food offerings. This research note presents 2006-2016 data from the U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns, a time period that captures industry peaks on either side of the Great Recession of 2008. Data show that while the food and beverage service sector as a whole grew by 17.7%, the bar sector decreased by 10.5%. City-level data from the 30-largest municipalities show much internal variation in both sectors, but the bar sector’s share of the food and beverage service industry declined in 28 of 30 municipalities under study. Restaurant industry growth in this decade ranged from 5.0% to 48.4%, while bar sector change ranged from -37.7% to an increase of 56.5%. The implications of this changing industry mix and its municipal variation are discussed for future research into the changing food and drink service industry, its role in urban revitalization, strategies for public health and safety, and the likely acceleration of these trends due to COVID-19.

Observers can gaze upon an image, process enough of that image to identify it, but completely fail to notice drastic changes to the periphery of that image

Cohen, M. A., Ostrand, C., Frontero, N., & Pham, P.-N. (2021). Characterizing a snapshot of perceptual experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. Jan 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000864

Abstract: What can we perceive in a single glance of the visual world? Although this question appears rather simple, answering it has been remarkably difficult and controversial. Traditionally, researchers have tried to infer the nature of perceptual experience by examining how many objects and what types of objects are not fully encoded within a scene (e.g., failing to notice a bowl disappearing/changing). Here, we took a different approach and asked how much we could alter an entire scene before observers noticed those global alterations. Surprisingly, we found that observers could fixate on a scene for hundreds of milliseconds yet routinely fail to notice drastic changes to that scene (e.g., scrambling the periphery so no object can be identified, putting the center of 1 scene on the background of another scene). In addition, we also found that as observers allocate more attention to their periphery, their ability to notice these changes to a scene increases. Together, these results show that although a single snapshot of perceptual experience can be remarkably impoverished, it is also not a fixed constant and is likely to be continuously changing from moment to moment depending on attention.

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Observers can gaze upon an image, process enough of that image to identify it, but completely fail to notice drastic changes to the periphery of that image

Awe may lead to uncertainty & ambivalence regarding one’s attitudes, a form of epistemological humility, & that this in turn may promote reduced dogmatism and increased perceptions of social cohesion

Stancato, D. M., & Keltner, D. (2021). Awe, ideological conviction, and perceptions of ideological opponents. Emotion, 21(1), 61–72, Jan 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/emo0000665

Abstract: Awe is an emotional response to perceptually vast stimuli that transcend current frames of reference. Guided by prior work documenting that awe promotes humility, increases perceptions of uncertainty, and diminishes personal concerns, across 3 studies (N = 776) we tested the hypothesis that awe results in reduced conviction about one’s ideological attitudes. In Study 1, participants induced to experience awe, relative to those feeling amusement or in a neutral control condition, expressed less conviction regarding their attitudes toward capital punishment. In 2 subsequent studies, we showed that experiencing awe decreased perceptions of ideological polarization in the U.S. vis-à-vis racial bias in the criminal justice system (Study 2) and reduced desired social distance from those with different viewpoints regarding immigration (Study 3)—effects that were partially mediated by reduced conviction. These findings indicate that awe may lead to uncertainty and ambivalence regarding one’s attitudes, a form of epistemological humility, and that this in turn may promote reduced dogmatism and increased perceptions of social cohesion.

Psychopathic people were generally interested in having one-night stands, seemingly without concern for the personality traits of the other person involved

Negative traits, positive assortment: Revisiting the Dark Triad and a preference for similar others. Cameron S. Kay. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, February 2, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407521989820

Abstract: Across two studies (N TOTAL = 933), a person’s willingness to engage in a relationship with those scoring high in each of the Dark Triad traits (i.e., Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy) was examined as a function of their own levels of the Dark Triad traits and the relationship type in question (i.e., a one-night stand, a dating relationship, or a marriage). There were three notable findings. First, those scoring high in Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy were more willing to engage in a relationship with a person who was also high in Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy, respectively. Second, as the commitment level of the relationship increased, so did a narcissistic individual’s willingness to engage in a relationship with a fellow narcissist. Third, psychopathic people were generally interested in having one-night stands, seemingly without concern for the personality traits of the other person involved. Results are discussed in relation to assortative mating.

Keywords Dark Triad, long-term relationships, Machiavellianism, narcissism, personality, positive assortment, psychopathy, short-term relationships

Auditory Agnosia With Anosognosia

Auditory Agnosia With Anosognosia. Maja Klarendić et al. Cortex, February 2 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2020.12.025

Abstract: A 66-year-old female medical doctor suffered two consecutive cardioembolic strokes, initially affecting the right frontal lobe and the right insula, followed by a lesion in the left temporal lobe. The patient presented with distinctive phenomenology of general auditory agnosia with anosognosia for the deficit. She did not understand verbal commands and her answers to oral questions were fluent but unrelated to the topic. However, she was able to correctly answer written questions, name objects, and fluently describe their purpose, which is characteristic for verbal auditory agnosia. She was also unable to recognise environmental sounds or to recognise and repeat any melody. This inability is suggestive of environmental sound agnosia and amusia, respectively. Surprisingly, she was not aware of the problems, not asking any questions regarding her symptoms, and avoiding discussing her inability to understand spoken language, which is indicative of anosognosia. The deficits in our patient evolved from generalized AA with distinct pattern of recovery. The verbal auditory agnosia was the first to resolve, followed by environmental sound agnosia. Amusia persisted the longest. The patient was clinically assessed from the first day of symptom onset and the evolution of symptoms was video documented. We give a detailed account of the patient’s behaviour and provide results of audiological and neuropsychological evaluations. We discuss the anatomy of auditory agnosia and anosognosia relevant to the case. This case study may serve to better understand auditory agnosia in clinical settings. It is important to distinguish AA from Wernicke’s aphasia, because use of written language may enable normal communication.

Keywords: auditory agnosiaanosognosiaverbal auditory agnosiaenvironmental sound agnosiaamusia

Fluoride in Drinking Water: We estimate a zero effect on cognitive ability in contrast to several recent debated epidemiological studies

The Effects of Fluoride in Drinking Water. Linuz Aggeborn and Mattias Öhman. Journal of Political Economy, Jan 2021. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/711915

Abstract: Water fluoridation is a common but debated public policy. In this paper, we use Swedish registry data to study the causal effects of fluoride in drinking water. We exploit exogenous variation in natural fluoride stemming from variation in geological characteristics at water sources to identify its effects. First, we reconfirm the long-established positive effect of fluoride on dental health. Second, we estimate a zero effect on cognitive ability in contrast to several recent debated epidemiological studies. Third, fluoride is furthermore found to increase labor income. This effect is foremost driven by individuals from a lower socioeconomic background.

VI.  Discussion and Conclusion

Let us now return to our findings on cognitive ability. We claim that we find no effect of fluoride on cognitive ability, but is the estimated effect effectively zero? Let us monetize the estimates by relating them to earlier published findings on the predicted power of cognitive ability. We then choose column 5 in Table 4, where fixed effects and covariates are included. Our point estimate is 0.0028, with fixed effects and covariates included, for an increase of 0.1 milligrams/liter of fluoride on cognitive ability.

Lindqvist and Vestman (2011) estimate the return of cognitive ability on wages using Swedish registry data. Let us do a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Their results in Table 1 indicate that a 1 standard deviation increase in cognitive ability yields an approximately 10.4% increase in wages. We multiply their return to cognitive ability with our results for the effect of fluoride on cognitive ability. The estimated effect of an increase of 1 milligram/liter of fluoride translates to an 0.29% increase in wages.19 In conclusion, the close to zero and insignificant result that we estimate for the effect of fluoride on cognitive ability translates to a small impact on wages.

Another way to evaluate a zero result is to look at earlier studies that have found statistically significant results and compare the precision of the estimates. Our study includes more than 80,000 individuals when we do not include covariates or fixed effects and about 47,000 individuals with covariates and fixed effects. This may be compared with Green et al. (2019), which included around 600 observations, and the reviewed studies in Choi et al. (2012), where the number of observations was less than 1,000 for the largest study. Our confidence intervals are tighter than the 95% confidence intervals in all earlier studies.20

The remaining question is why our results deviate from previous studies, such as Green et al. (2019), that have considered similar fluoride levels.21 The main objection against Green et al. (2019) is that the choice of fluoridating water is an endogenous policy variable. Individuals do not exogenously live in fluoridated areas, making it likely that there are selection problems present. It is also noteworthy that Green et al. (2019) find a negative association only for boys and not for girls. However, we should note that Green et al. (2019) have access to urine data with actual fluoride measures within the body and several background variables that we do not have access to and that they also measured IQ at a younger age than we do.

Our results are policy relevant for developed countries with water fluoridation, given that water authorities seldom consider fluoridation above 1.5 milligrams/liter. How do our results relate to developing countries in terms of external validity? We have no reason to expect that the effect of fluoride on cognitive ability is dependent on the institutional setting. Fluoride is a chemical substance, and its effect on cognitive development should not be specific to Sweden. Choi et al. (2012) consider studies from China and Iran with fluoride levels similar to ours but also studies with higher levels, and they concluded an overall negative association. Although the mass of fluoride is within the range of 0–1.5 milligrams/liter in our data, we have some observations above the 1.5 milligrams/liter threshold set by the World Health Organization. The share of observations in this upper limit is still large in comparison to the studies reviewed in Choi et al. (2012). Figure A4 and table A7 focus on these high-level treatment effects and display no evidence of a negative effect of fluoride up to at least 3 milligrams/liter. These results should be interpreted with caution given that it is a selected sample, but it covers many of the papers in Choi et al. (2012) in terms of range. Given that our results deviate from studies reviewed in Choi et al. (2012), we believe that many of the studies capture other simultaneous hazardous treatments.

Our paper is about not only cognitive ability but also the effect of fluoride on dental health and income. Regarding dental health, we believe that our results are generalizable. Fluoride does improve dental health, and our natural experiment confirms this well-established finding in a long-term setting. However, we should remember that we measure dental health indirectly through the dental health care system in Sweden, with a large supply of dental care. The outcome where we expect to have the least external validity is our income measure, where the mechanism channels previously discussed are dependent on the institutional setting. It is interesting to note that our estimates on income, derived from rich and detailed population-wide data, are in line with Glied and Neidell (2010), who used American data.

Our findings add to the literature on the effects of fluoride on cognitive ability, but we have also broadened the understanding of the effects of fluoride by studying dental health (the first-stage relationship) and income (the long-term outcome). On the basis of the results, fluoride exposure through drinking water seems to be a good mean of improving dental health without negative effects on cognitive development for the fluoride levels considered in this study.

No Evidence That Hormonal Oral Contraceptives Affect Chemosensory Perception

No Evidence That Hormonal Contraceptives Affect Chemosensory Perception. Martin Schaefer at al. i-Perception, February 1, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/2041669520983339

Rolf Degen's take: Contrary to previous assumptions, oral contraceptives do not affect women's smell or taste perception

Abstract: The use of oral contraceptives (OC) in the form of a hormonal pill has been widespread for decades. Despite its popularity and long-time use, there is still much ambiguity and anecdotal reports about a range of potential side effects. Here, we addressed the potential effect of OC use on chemosensory perception. Previous research has almost exclusively focused on olfaction, but we expanded this to the trigeminal system and the sense of taste. We used Bayesian statistics to compare the olfactory, trigeminal, and taste detection abilities between a group of 34 normal cycling women and a group of 26 women using OC. Our results indicated that odor, trigeminal, and taste thresholds were not affected by the use of OC. Moreover, neither odor perception, nor taste perception was affected; all with Bayes factors consistently favoring the null hypothesis. The only exception to these results was odor identification where Bayes factors indicated inconclusive evidence. We conclude that effects of OC use on chemosensory perception are unlikely, and if present, likely are of no to little behavioral relevance.

Keywords: oral contraceptives, chemosensory perception, Bayesian, olfaction, trigeminal, taste, the pill

Discussion

Previous research investigating the effect OC on olfactory sensitivity has been inconclusive. Odor sensitivity has previously been shown to be both positively and negatively affected by pill use, positively and negatively affected by duration of pill intake, and potential differences seem to have been odor-dependent (Derntl et al., 2013; Kollndorfer et al., 2016; Lundström et al., 2006; Renfro & Hoffmann, 2013). Here, we revisited the question of whether OC use affects olfactory performance as well as assessed potential effects of OC use on trigeminal and taste perception. Our results indicate that OC use does not impact chemosensory perception. In fact, we considered a wide range of priors, and the null hypothesis (H0) was consistently favored over the alternative hypothesis (H1). Importantly, as trigeminal thresholds were not affected by OC, the mixed results from earlier research likely do not depend on differences in odor trigeminality of the odors used. Also, the only measure that indicated a potential effect of OC in our data was not a sensory function, but a measure that can be considered as more cognitive (cued odor identification). Notably, women have been shown to outperform men in odor identification—an effect not thought to be mediated by differences in olfaction but rather in general language abilities (Larsson, 1997, 2002; Larsson et al., 2005, 2014). A recent meta-analysis on the effect of OC on cognition further demonstrated that there is little evidence that OC impacts cognitive functions with consistent evidence only demonstrated for verbal memory (Warren et al., 2014). These findings indicate that any potential effect of OC on odor identification may be due to an impact on language functions and not olfactory function per se.

The current study has, however, weaknesses including a rather small sample size of participants in each group (OC users and nonusers), thus making it difficult to reach definite conclusions due to low statistical power. Post hoc power calculations revealed that we had 0.47 power to detect a medium effect size (0.5 d) at alpha level .05 (Faul et al., 2007). Another limitation is that the type, and dosage, of the hormonal contents of the used OC varied, and we could not control the duration of OC intake. Both the dosage of the ethinyl estradiol content, and the duration of OC use, have been suggested to alter how OC usage impacts olfactory sensitivity (Derntl et al., 2013; Kollndorfer et al., 2016). Future research should take this into account and also test a wider range of odorants, tastants, and trigeminal compounds. We tried to minimize the limitation in number of stimuli by including ecological relevant stimuli (food and non-food-associated odors) as well as use different chemical compositions (monomolecular odors and mixtures). Despite these short comings, we argue that our findings are strengthened by the following points. Earlier studies have only used frequentist statistics and were not able to test the strength of the H0 in instances when no differences were found (Dienes, 2014). Moreover, previous studies have found an effect of OC use on olfactory sensitivity when assessing very specific outcomes (e.g., the sensitivity for a specific odor, the influence of hormone dosage of the OC content, the duration of pill intake, which menstrual phase the women in the control group were in, etc.), with no general or broader effects consistently shown.

In summary, we conclude that an effect of OC use on chemosensory perception is unlikely and, if present, presumably of a small effect size with negligible ecological relevance. This should come as good news to OC users as based on these results there is no need to be concerned about altered chemosensory perception.

Policymakers are not likely to repeal alcohol taxes: Too many experts testify to their necessity and too many special interest groups agree, all while receiving government grants

Taxing Alcohol. Michael Thom. In Taxing Sin, pp 55-86, December 1 2020. https://rd.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-49176-5_3

Rolf Degen's take: Sobering theses on the alcohol tax. https://t.co/K2FfyUlDvC https://t.co/Tzqz9cw73x

Abstract: Alcohol is said to impose harms, including healthcare costs and impaired driving, that warrant an alcoholic beverage tax. However, research shows that light and moderate alcohol consumption is beneficial to health. Furthermore, the burden tied to heavy drinking are exaggerated and, when all costs and benefits are considered, may not exist. Research also suggests that alcohol taxes are self-defeating; those who are likely to drink less because of higher prices are the same light and moderate drinkers whose health improves after they drink. Heavy drinkers, by contrast, are not that responsive to higher prices. But policymakers are not likely to repeal alcohol taxes. Too many experts testify to their necessity and too many special interest groups agree, all while receiving government grants.

Keywords: Healthcare costs Impaired driving Alcohol taxes Special interest groups 

European regions with higher pre-industrial climatic variability display higher levels of trust today: Climatic risk favored the early adoption of inclusive institutions (which implies higher quality of local governments today)

Climate Risk, Cooperation, and the Co-Evolution of Culture and Institutions. Johannes C Buggle, Ruben Durante. The Economic Journal, ueaa127, January 20 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa127

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between economic risk and the evolution of social cooperation. We hypothesize that trust developed in pre-industrial times as a result of experiences of cooperation aimed at coping with climatic risk. We document that European regions with higher pre-industrial climatic variability display higher levels of trust today. This effect is driven by variability in the growing season months and is more pronounced in agricultural regions. Regarding possible mechanisms, our results indicate that climatic risk favored inter-community exchange and the early adoption of inclusive political institutions which is associated with higher quality of local governments today.

JEL N53 - Europe: Pre-1913O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic DevelopmentO13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary ProductsQ54 - Climate; Natural Disasters; Global WarmingZ10 - General

Is partisan conflict driven by Republicans moving to the right, or have Democrats contributed too? Are the changes symmetric, occurring for both sides? They found that symmetric partisan changes have only occurred among whites

The Nature of Partisan Conflict in Public Opinion: Asymmetric or Symmetric? Maria Narayani Lasala Blanco, Robert Y. Shapiro, Joy Wilke. American Politics Research, October 8, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X20961022

Abstract: What are the dynamics of partisan conflict in the mass public in the United States? Has this conflict been driven by Republicans moving to the right across a wide range of issues, or have Democrats contributed to this as well? Have these changes been symmetric, occurring for both sides, or asymmetric, occurring for just one side? Understanding how the partisan gaps have widened may shed light on potential prospects for reversing extreme political conflict in public opinion. This paper examines this question with an analysis of opinion trend data over the last 40 years. It includes an original analysis of these trends among racial and ethnic groups. We find that symmetric partisan changes have only occurred among whites. Overall partisan differences have been less for Blacks and Hispanics than for whites.

Keywords: partisan conflict, public opinion, polarization among Latinos and Blacks

Many of the participants with severe psychiatric conditions endorse high levels of subjective well-being; the professionals' & patients' ratings were negatively related or unrelated, showing a lack of mutual understanding of SWB

The perception of well-being: Do people with severe psychiatric conditions and their therapists put themselves in each other’s shoes? Rocío Caballero,Carmen Valiente & Regina Espinosa. The Journal of Positive Psychology, Jan 31 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/17439760.2021.1871943

Abstract: Subjective well-being (SWB) has been shown to be linked to better prognosis but research on it in people with severe psychiatric conditions (SCP) is sparse. The main purpose of this study was to investigate SWB among individuals with SPC in comparison with the general population using a wide range of well-being measures. Also, we assessed the degree of agreement between professionals’ and their corresponding patients’ assessments of well-being. A total of 237 people with SPC and 34 referring staff members participated in this study. People with SPC reported significantly lower levels of hedonic well-being but preserved eudaimonic well-being compared to the general population. However, a substantial proportion of participants with SPC had an average or above-average SWB. We also found discrepancies between the well-being ratings of professionals and patients that were either negatively related or unrelated. These findings reinforce the importance of a more positive psychiatry, attuned to the patients’ perception.

KEYWORDS: Severe psychiatric illnessesschizophreniawell-beinglife satisfactionhappinessempathy

Art through the evolutionary lens

Art through the evolutionary lens. Sonya Sammut. Times of Malta, January 31, 2021. https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/art-through-the-evolutionary-lens.848454

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Looking at art through an evolutionary lens, which is what my good friend and art specialist Joseph Agius has asked me to do, opens up a big box of questions.

Firstly, we need to remind ourselves of the basics of the evolutionary view, where we look at the brain as an adapted organ and observe those psychological mechanisms that guide our behaviour as biological adaptations, as products of natural selection that have been evolving for millions of years.

An accident of evolution

Thinking along these lines, the first question is whether art shows the signs of a true adaptation. Canadian American cognitive psychologist and advocate of evolutionary psychology Stephen Pinker speculates that it does not. 

According to Pinker, like other cultural activities, art is one of those so-called non-adaptive by-products of evolution. In other words, although it is a product of the evolutionary process, rather than being an adaptation – a feature that helps solve problems of survival or reproduction, like the umbilical cord for example – it is a by-product, something that does not solve problems, does not have a functional design and is being carried along with the adaptations, in this case like the belly button.

Pinker is of the opinion that humans have invented art because they learned how to push the right buttons that activate certain inherited mechanisms that form part of our universal human nature, such as the colour vision that would have evolved for locating ripe fruits, and that, in essence, art mimics those very same stimuli – patterns, colours and shapes – that we as humans have been designed to perceive, respond to and take pleasure from. 

Art, in his view, is like cheesecake: a technology we make because we can, and for no other reason than our own satisfaction.

A true adaptation

American evolutionary psychologist Geoffrey Miller holds a rather different view.  Although he admits that, for evolutionists, art has always been difficult to explain through natural selection, he quickly reassures us that, through sexual selection, the evolution of art is much easier to understand. 

The story of the peacock’s tail, and how it is said that Charles Darwin became so obsessed with this metabolically costly object, serving as an advertisement for predators, that he said it made him feel sick, is a perfect example of how the peacock’s tail is actually a reproductive organ, a biological adaptation for sexual advantage, and a veritable work of art.

In his book The Mating Mind: How Sexual Choice Shaped the Evolution of Human Nature, Miller expands on the classical Darwinian approach to show us that art is a true biological adaptation rather than an accident of evolution, with a number of biological functions. 

This means opening our perspective to the evolution and functions of two types of mental adaptations: those around producing art, and those around appreciating or judging art.

Miller takes us to meet the bowerbirds of Australia and New Guinea, the birds who, with nothing but courtship on their minds, invest all the time, energy and skill they can to construct proportionately large, symmetrical and elaborately decorated nests. 

Not only do the male bowerbirds search for brilliantly coloured objects and arrange them carefully by colour, they also go as far as replacing the dried or faded fruits and flowers with fresh ones.

Some are even more competent, using regurgitated fruit residues and leaves or bark to paint the walls of their bowers.

Some display, others enjoy

These are all signs of a so-called biological signalling system, designed to display the fitness and superior skills of the owner for advantage.

It explains why many major works of art are created by young men (as opposed to women and older men), and helps us understand why even an apparently pragmatic tool such as the hand axes wielded by our ancestors Homo erectus may have evolved as works of art and displays of manual skills.

In discussing this topic, there is so much more we can be curious about, such as why we find beauty so compelling, why the artist’s virtuosity is fundamental to artistic beauty and why beauty conveys the truth about the artist’s skill and creativity. 

To answer these questions, we must not fear that the evolutionary standpoint will reduce the impact of what we find intriguing.  [...]

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Economics Seminars: Women presenters are treated differently than their male counterparts, are asked more questions during a seminar & the questions asked of women presenters are more likely to be patronizing or hostile

Gender and the Dynamics of Economics Seminars. Pascaline Dupas, Alicia Sasser Modestino, Muriel Niederle, Justin Wolfers, and the Seminar Dynamics Collective. January 20, 2021. https://web.stanford.edu/~pdupas/Gender&SeminarDynamics.pdf

Abstract: This paper reports the results of the first systematic attempt at quantitatively measuring the seminar culture within economics and testing whether it is gender neutral. We collected data on every interaction between presenters and their audience in hundreds of research seminars and job market talks across most leading economics departments, as well as during summer conferences. We find that women presenters are treated differently than their male counterparts. Women are asked more questions during a seminar and the questions asked of women presenters are more likely to be patronizing or hostile. These effects are not due to women presenting in different fields, different seminar series, or different topics, as our analysis controls for the institution, seminar series, and JEL codes associated with each presentation. Moreover, it appears that there are important differences by field and that these differences are not uniformly mitigated by more rigid seminar formats. Our findings add to an emerging literature documenting ways in which women economists are treated differently than men, and suggest yet another potential explanation for their under-representation at senior levels within the economics profession.

JEL Classifications: A1, C8, J4, J7.

Keywords: differential treatment, seminar culture, interruptions

Some comments... Madam Speaker: Are Female Presenters Treated Worse in Econ Seminars? The evidence seems statistically weak & conceptually inconclusive

Why are grandiose narcissists more effective at organizational politics? Means, motive, and opportunity

Why are grandiose narcissists more effective at organizational politics? Means, motive, and opportunity. Charles A. O'Reilly, Jeffrey Pfeffer. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 172, April 2021, 110557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110557

Highlights

• Grandiose narcissists often emerge as leaders in organizations.

• But the evidence is that they are no more qualified than non-narcissists.

• In 3 studies, we show that this may be because they are more effective political actors.

• We discuss the potential negative implications for this for organizations.

Abstract: Research over the past decade has shown that grandiose narcissists are often successful at attaining leadership positions in organizations. However, there is no evidence that narcissists lead higher performing firms, and while they see themselves as more competent leaders, there is no evidence for this, either. In fact, research shows that narcissistic leaders have numerous negative effects on the entities they lead. This raises a question: Why are narcissists so successful in attaining leadership positions? We suggest that the defining characteristics of grandiose narcissism (grandiosity, self-confidence, entitlement, and a willingness to exploit others for one's own self-interest) may make them more effective organizational politicians than those who are lower in narcissism. We report the results of three studies that show: (1) those higher in narcissism are more likely than those who are lower to see organizations in political terms (opportunity), (2) they are more willing to engage in organizational politics (motive), and (3) they are more skilled political actors (means). We discuss the implications of these results for organizational dynamics and career processes.

Keywords: PersonalityGrandiose narcissismLeadershipOrganizationsPolitics

International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists: We show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one's teenage years

Agarwal, Ruchir and Ganguli, Ina and Gaule, Patrick and Smith, Geoff, Why U.S. Immigration Barriers Matter for the Global Advancement of Science. IZA Discussion Paper No. 14016, Jan 11 2021. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3762886

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network— representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one's teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain 'push' incentives that reduce immigration barriers – by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent – could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42% percent. We conclude by discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.

JEL Classification: O33, O38, F22, J61

Why developing good psychological theories is so hard: Relative lack of robust phenomena that impose constraints on possible theories, problems of validity of psychological constructs, & obstacles to discovering causal relationships

The Theory Crisis in Psychology: How to Move Forward. Markus I. Eronen, Laura F. Bringmann. Perspectives on Psychological Science, January 29, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620970586

Abstract: Meehl argued in 1978 that theories in psychology come and go, with little cumulative progress. We believe that this assessment still holds, as also evidenced by increasingly common claims that psychology is facing a “theory crisis” and that psychologists should invest more in theory building. In this article, we argue that the root cause of the theory crisis is that developing good psychological theories is extremely difficult and that understanding the reasons why it is so difficult is crucial for moving forward in the theory crisis. We discuss three key reasons based on philosophy of science for why developing good psychological theories is so hard: the relative lack of robust phenomena that impose constraints on possible theories, problems of validity of psychological constructs, and obstacles to discovering causal relationships between psychological variables. We conclude with recommendations on how to move past the theory crisis.

Keywords: theory, phenomena, robustness, validity, causation

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I could add, tentatively, this one: lack of geniuses like Newton or Einstein.

Discussion

In this article, we have discussed three fundamental difficulties in developing good psychological theories: the lack of (sufficient) robust phenomena, the lack of validity and epistemic iteration for psychological constructs, and the problem of establishing psychological causes. These issues should be addressed and discussed to make progress in resolving the theory crisis. We now outline several recommendations for psychological research on the basis of these issues.

First, our discussion supports the recent calls for more “phenomena detection” or “phenomenon-driven research” in psychology (Borsboom et al., 2021; De Houwer, 2011; Haig, 2013; see also Trafimow & Earp, 2016). By discovering new phenomena and gathering more robust evidence for those already discovered, the space of possible theories will be constrained.

Another important reason to support phenomenon-driven research is that phenomena can also be extremely important for science and society as such (Eronen, 2020): Consider, for example, the broad range of cognitive biases that psychologists have discovered, such as confirmation bias, most of which are very robust phenomena (Gilovich et al., 2002). Various theories have been proposed to explain these phenomena, such as the attribute-substitution theory, according to which people substitute difficult computations with simple heuristics, or the more general dual-system theory (Kahneman & Frederick, 2002). However, these theories are far more controversial than the phenomena themselves. Moreover, knowing that these phenomena exist is extremely important for science and society, even if we do not know the theory or mechanism behind them. The same holds for a broad range of other robust phenomena discovered in psychology, for example, the phenomenon that people tend to prefer familiar stimuli to unfamiliar ones (i.e., the mere-exposure effect; Bornstein, 1989). Simply knowing that these phenomena exist and describing them is useful, even in the absence of an accepted theory that would explain them.

In addition to being discovered and being described, phenomena can also be further analyzed by looking for shared abstract structures in different phenomena (Hughes et al., 2016). For example, at an abstract level, phenomena as different as constantly checking your phone and rewarding the good behavior of children with candy can both be seen as instances of (positive) reinforcement (Hughes et al., 2016). For all of these reasons, phenomena detection should be seen as an important goal in itself and as a central part of psychological research (see also Fiedler, 2017; Haig, 2013; Rozin, 2001).

However, we by no means intend to suggest that theorizing in psychology is hopeless or a waste of resources or that we should return to a kind of behaviorism in which theories about mental processes are rejected as unscientific. The issues we have raised should not be seen as insurmountable obstacles but rather as challenges that need to be met before good psychological theories can be developed in a given domain.

This brings us to our next point: It is doubtful whether making psychological theories more mathematical or formal, which is a common theme in the recent literature (e.g., Borsboom et al., 2021; Muthukrishna & Henrich, 2019; Oberauer & Lewandowsky, 2019; van Rooij & Baggio, 2020), will lead to significant advances in psychology as a science.⁵ None of the problems we have discussed is solved by formalizing psychological theories: There will still be no large body of robust phenomena to constrain the theories, the constructs used do not become more valid, and a formal treatment alone does not solve the problem of causality and fat-handed interventions. Moreover, many successful and extremely important theories in the life sciences are not formalized or mathematical theories (e.g., the fermentation theory or the theory of synaptic transmission; Bechtel & Richardson, 1993; Machamer, Darden & Craver, 2000). As pointed out by Rozin (2001; see also Morey et al., 2018), using complex statistical and computational models does not make psychology more scientific and can be even counterproductive if the conceptual and empirical basis (e.g., robust phenomena) is not yet solid.

Finally, it is hard to overemphasize the importance of having clearly and transparently defined concepts as the basis for theories. Note that this is not the same as formalization of theories: Concepts can be well defined in qualitatively formulated theories as well (e.g., Darwin’s theory of evolution), and formal theories can have poorly defined concepts as their elements (e.g., models in memetics that have a clear mathematical structure but for which the central concept “meme” is not well defined; Kronfeldner, 2011). Conceptual clarification and construct validation should be seen as an important and valuable parts of research, and validation should be taken to be an iterative and ongoing process instead of just a hurdle that needs be crossed. In our view, strengthening the conceptual basis of psychological theories is at least as important as improving statistical techniques and practices in psychological research.

In the long run, this will also help with the problem of causal inference, as having clearly defined and clearly measurable constructs makes it easier to perform targeted interventions and to track their effects. With sufficiently well-defined constructs and valid measurements, it may also be possible to eventually infer causal relationships from purely observational data (for more, see, e.g., Eronen, 2020; Rohrer, 2018). Another possible reaction to the problem of finding psychological causes is to develop noncausal theories, for example, in the form of abstract functional principles extracted from phenomena (De Houwer, 2011; Hughes et al., 2016), although whether noncausal theories can be truly explanatory is a matter of ongoing debate (see, e.g., Reutlinger & Saatsi, 2018).

Fortunately, there are ongoing research programs in psychology that exemplify the good practices we have describe above. For example, after the recent disappointments in ego-depletion research, there are now increasing efforts to better define the key constructs, such as self-control and related concepts, and to validate different ways of measuring them (Friese et al., 2019; Inzlicht & Friese, 2019; Lurquin & Miyake, 2017). A broader example is the functional-cognitive paradigm (De Houwer, 2011; Hughes et al., 2016) that aims at first establishing environment-behavior relations (robust phenomena) and then formulating explanations for them in terms of clearly defined mental constructs that act as mediators. Finally, as a more concrete example, Robinaugh et al. (2020) propose a theory for panic disorder that is tailored to this specific disorder and thereby constrained by phenomena (there is robust evidence for many central phenomena related to panic attacks), and the authors also explicitly focus on defining the key concepts.

To conclude, we believe that the most fundamental factor underlying the theory crisis is that the subject matter itself, psychology, makes it very hard to develop good theories (Meehl, 1978). Drawing on contemporary philosophy of science, we have discussed three central challenges to developing psychological theories: There are often not enough robust phenomena to constrain theories, not enough attention is paid to defining and validating constructs, and establishing psychological causes is very hard. We hope that this article brings more attention to these crucial issues and thereby helps to provide more solid building blocks for the theoretical foundations of psychology.

Using millions of father-son pairs spanning more than 100 years of US history, we find that children of immigrants from nearly every sending country have higher rates of upward mobility than children of the US-born

Abramitzky, Ran, Leah Boustan, Elisa Jacome and Santiago Perez. 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in the United States over Two Centuries." American Economic Review, 111(2):580-608. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191586

Abstract: Using millions of father-son pairs spanning more than 100 years of US history, we find that children of immigrants from nearly every sending country have higher rates of upward mobility than children of the US-born. Immigrants' advantage is similar historically and today despite dramatic shifts in sending countries and US immigration policy. Immigrants achieve this advantage in part by choosing to settle in locations that offer better prospects for their children.