Unexpected losses of local teams lead to a small decrease in the number of births nine months thereafter due to reduced short-term sexual interest and intercourse

Soccer Scores, Short-Term Mood and Fertility. Fabrizio Bernardi & Marco Cozzani. European Journal of Population, Apr 14 2021, https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-021-09576-2

Abstract: Previous research has shown that seemingly irrelevant events such as unexpected outcomes in sporting events can affect mood and have relevant consequences for episodes of crime and violence, investing behavior and political preferences. In this article, we test whether mood shocks associated with unexpected results in soccer matches in Spain affect fertility. We use data on betting odds and actual scores to define mood shocks and link them to births by month and province in Spain, between 2001 and 2015. We find that unexpected losses of local teams lead to a small decrease in the number of births nine months thereafter. The effect is larger for more unexpected losses, in those provinces with the largest amount of support for the local team and robust to a number of placebo tests. We argue that these results are consistent with the gain–loss asymmetry predicted by prospect theory.

Conclusions

Previous studies have documented that seemingly irrelevant events may have important consequences for political preferences and opinions, for risk-taking economic decisions and for episodes of crime and violence (Card and Dahl 2011; Edmans et al. 2007; Healy et al. 2010; Munyo and Rossi 2013). These findings have been interpreted as evidence that changes in mood spread to otherwise unrelated dimensions such as evaluation of politics or of economic risk and can trigger other types of behaviors. In this article, we build on this literature and test the hypothesis that mood shocks might influence fertility behavior. To this end, we analyze the universe of births data in Spain between 2001 and 2015 and focus on mood shocks arising from soccer scores in Spain. We compare betting odds and actual outcomes of soccer games in Spain to identify exogenous mood shocks around expected outcomes.

Two previous academic articles on the effect of sport events on fertility have produced contradictory findings. The anecdotal claim of an “Iniesta generation” following the last-minute goal by the Barcelona midfielder in the UEFA Champions league semifinal against Chelsea is confirmed by Montesinos et al. (2013), while no evidence of “Super Bowl Babies” is found by Hayward and Rybińska (2017). What these two studies have in common is that they both focus on the supposed positive effect of success in a major sport event on fertility. In our study, we enlarge the explicative framework to also consider the consequence of losses. We find that an unexpected loss by the most popular soccer team in a Spanish province leads to a reduction of 0.8% in the number of births nine months later in that province. We do not find an opposite effect for unexpected wins. This finding is consistent with an asymmetric hypothesis drawn from prospect theory, stating that mood changes arise due to deviations from expected outcomes, with losses having larger effect than wins. A possible way to reconcile our findings and those by Hayward and Rybińska (2017) and Montesinos et al. (2013) is that a sport victory has to come as really unexpected with an unique collective celebration to produce an increase in the number of births, as it might have been the case for the agonic victory of FC Barcelona against Chelsea, associated with the Iniesta generation, and less so for the Super Bowl games whose outcomes tend to be more equalized a priori.

From a quantitative point of view, the point estimate of our main finding is very small. For instance, the 0.8 percent reduction in the number of births in a given province associated with one unexpected loss of the local soccer in team nine months earlier that we have documented corresponds on average to a reduction of about 49 births for each unexpected loss in a given month for the province of Madrid. The estimated effect, therefore, does not entail any consequences for the aggregate fertility rate in Spanish provinces. The decrease in the number of births nine months after an unexpected loss by the local team is likely to be compensated in the following months, by those couples who were planning to have a child. Even small-sized effect can, however, entail theoretical relevance (Elliott and Granger 2004; Bernardi et al. 2017). First, our key finding supports the idea that emotions and mood can be important determinants for fertility. Scholars should then consider how to include emotions into the increasingly popular models of planned behavior to study fertility (Ajzen and Klobas 2013; Mencarini et al. 2015). Work in close-by disciplines can provide some fruitful interdisciplinary inspiration in that direction (Elster, 1998; Massey, 2002). Second, our main finding also provides support for the prediction of prospect theory beyond its most common applications in finance, insurance and consumption-saving decisions (Barberis, 2013).

Methodologically, our study adds to a body of studies that have investigated the effect of subjective well-being on fertility. Moods and emotions are an important component of subjective well-being (Diener et al. 1999). There is now some evidence that happier people are more likely to have children and conversely that stress and poor mood might cause infertility (Aassve et al. 2012; Cetre et al. 2016; Greil 1997; Le Moglie et al. 2015; Parr 2010). Although our results refer only to short-lived mood shock, they provide critical evidence that supports a causal interpretation of the association previously found between happiness and fertility.

A major limitation of our study that makes us interpret these suggestive results with caution is that we cannot observe the intervening mechanisms between soccer scores and mood shock and between the latter and reduction in number of births. In a direct extension of this work, one could measure mood shocks with a sentiment analysis using Twitter data on province base (Mencarini et al. 2019). One could also focus on the intervening mechanism between mood shocks and fertility, i.e., reduction in sexual desire and intercourse. One could then study the effect of mood shock on some proxies for sexual arousal and intercourse, such as the internet access to porn sites (Markey and Markey 2010) or consumption of condoms and morning-after pills.

Still, these additional analyses with different indicators for mood shocks and proxies for sexual intercourse at the province level would still suffer from a major limitation that we also face in this current work, namely that we use macro-level data to test a micro-level mechanism. In this respect, future research could focus on physiological mechanisms (Bernhardt et al. 1998; van der Meij el al. 2012) and test whether testosterone change following vicarious experience of unexpected wins and losses is indeed asymmetric, so that a hormone change after unexpected losses is larger than the increase after unexpected wins. One could also look at variations in sexual interest and behaviors (Bancroft et al. 2003; Janssen et al. 2013) and analyze whether and how mood shocks related to soccer outcomes (or any other event that might affect mood) affect sexual interest and intercourse.

Humans sometimes picture themselves from an external vantage point, particularly when they consider events in a broader context or care about their reputation

Picturing yourself: a social-cognitive process model to integrate third-person imagery effects. Zachary Adolph Niese,Richard P. Eibach &Lisa K. Libby. Journal of Cognitive Psychology, Apr 13 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/20445911.2021.1912051

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1382386165299486721

Abstract: People have a fascinating capacity to picture their actions from an external vantage point. Much of the research on this third-person imagery has focused on the specific effects it has on cognition due to the elements of episodic experience that it lacks relative to first-person imagery. Other research focuses on the information that the third-person provides that first-person imagery lacks. We propose a more systematic approach that conceptualises how third-person imagery’s various effects interrelate due to a common underlying social-cognitive function. Specifically, we outline an integrative model proposing that third-person and first-person imagery cause people to adopt qualitatively distinct processing styles. This model explains many of the diverse effects that have been documented in the literature and helps reconcile seemingly discrepant findings. We conclude with recommendations for strategies to more systematically investigate the functions of visual perspective in mental imagery to build more comprehensive understanding of this phenomenological variable.

KEYWORDS: visual imagery perspectivethird-person imageryprocessing styles

An ant can increase and decrease its brain size, according to its reproductive status

Reversible plasticity in brain size, behaviour and physiology characterizes caste transitions in a socially flexible ant (Harpegnathos saltator). Clint A. Penick, Majid Ghaninia, Kevin L. Haight, Comzit Opachaloemphan, Hua Yan, Danny Reinberg and Jürgen Liebig. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, April 14 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0141

Abstract: Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to respond to changing environments throughout their lifetime, but these changes are rarely reversible. Exceptions occur in relatively long-lived vertebrate species that exhibit seasonal plasticity in brain size, although similar changes have not been identified in short-lived species, such as insects. Here, we investigate brain plasticity in reproductive workers of the ant Harpegnathos saltator. Unlike most ant species, workers of H. saltator are capable of sexual reproduction, and they compete in a dominance tournament to establish a group of reproductive workers, termed ‘gamergates'. We demonstrated that, compared to foragers, gamergates exhibited a 19% reduction in brain volume in addition to significant differences in behaviour, ovarian status, venom production, cuticular hydrocarbon profile, and expression profiles of related genes. In experimentally manipulated gamergates, 6–8 weeks after being reverted back to non-reproductive status their phenotypes shifted to the forager phenotype across all traits we measured, including brain volume, a trait in which changes were previously shown to be irreversible in honeybees and Drosophila. Brain plasticity in H. saltator is therefore more similar to that found in some long-lived vertebrates that display reversible changes in brain volume throughout their lifetimes.

4. Discussion

Workers of Harpegnathos saltator exhibited reversible changes in brain size similar to that found in relatively long-lived vertebrate species. Changes in brain volume observed in vertebrates generally track seasonal reproductive cycles and are triggered by reproductive hormone cascades [9]. Likewise, brain changes in H. saltator also track the reproductive status and are associated with changes in reproductive hormone levels [20,21] and the expression of key regulatory genes [42]. Changes in the vertebrate brain include the seasonal addition of new neurons [54], which we did not specifically measure here, but changes in total and region-specific brain volumes are comparable.

[Figure 6. Correlated plasticity in brain, behaviour, and physiology between reproductive and non-reproductive workers. (Online version in colour.)]

Task or experience-dependent plasticity of brain compartments has been demonstrated in various insects, including honeybees, ants, paper wasps, and moths (e.g. [11,34,55–57]). In H. saltator, gamergate brains were 19% smaller than the brains of foragers on average, which is in line with predictions that brain size should be reduced to divert metabolic resources to reproduction [12,13]. Even compared to comparatively younger inside workers, gamergate optic lobes were 24% smaller, suggesting they may not simply retain the brain size of young nurse workers, but most likely experience region-specific brain volume reduction. When gamergates of H. saltator were reverted back to non-reproductive status, their brains re-expanded and matched that of forager brains. Foraging requires the ability to orient towards the nest and to attack and retrieve live prey items, all of which requires higher cognitive processing. The observed reduction in central brain volume of gamergates and the subsequent expansion in reverted gamergates suggest it is used for the more demanding cognitive abilities of foraging [58]. Changes in the central brain of H. saltator, which includes the mushroom body, are consistent with results from other social insects [59]. In carpenter ants, foragers that perform cognitively demanding tasks exhibit an increase of more than 50% of mushroom body neuropile volume [11] and a similar pattern is found in the mushroom body of honeybees [60].

The pattern of size differences in the optic lobe of H. saltator suggests a programmed rather than experience-dependent change in brain volume. Gamergates displayed significantly smaller optic lobes than inside workers and foragers, both of which had equally large optic lobes. Gamergates were still exposed to light and thereby received visual stimulation from their nest-mates in our laboratory settings, so sensory deprivation is an unlikely cause for the size differences we observed. Given that gamergates do not rely on optic information under natural conditions, a reproduction-dependent size reduction seems most likely. The intermediate optic lobe size of reverted gamergates relative to gamergates and non-reproductive workers suggests a presumably slower reversion speed of the optic lobe compared to the central brain. However, the size reductions of the optic lobes and of the central brain compared to reverted gamergates both suggest this brain size reduction is an energy-saving mechanism as proposed previously [12,13].

The reversibility of changes in brain size in H. saltator contrasts with results in the honeybee and in Drosophila. Brain size in honeybees increases as nurse workers transition to foragers, but when foragers are reverted to nurse status, they do not show a decrease in brain volume [32]. Honeybee foragers in the study by Fahrbach et al. [32] were only reverted back to nurses for 5 days, while gamergates in the present study were reverted for 6–8 weeks, which may explain why brain changes were observed in our study but not in previous studies on honeybees. In addition, honeybee foragers typically only live for a matter of weeks, and there is no biological ‘reason' for why they should fully revert to nurse status—in a colony of 50 000 bees, foragers can easily be replaced by new workers. By contrast, H. saltator colonies are small (usually less than 100 individuals), and each worker represents a more valuable resource in terms of their relative contribution to colony productivity. Studies in Drosophila have looked at region-specific changes in brain size associated with adult age, and while the medulla of the optic lobe in D. melanogaster increases in size with age, sensory deprived medullae do not increase in size and this lack of growth seems to be irreversible later in life [33]. This difference in brain plasticity corroborates differences in the plasticity of the antennal lobe between ants and Drosophila. When the odorant receptor co-receptor (orco) was knocked out in ants, the antennal lobes showed a significant reduction in two ant species [61,62]. A similar morphological change was not present in Drosophila when orco was knocked out, which suggests a hardwired mode of olfactory glomeruli formation in the Drosophila antennal lobe [63] and potentially major differences in brain development between Drosophila and ants.

Along with reversion in brain size, we found behavioural and physiological reversions that include the ovarian activity, venom production, CHC profile, and expression of associated genes (figure 6). Combined changes in physiological traits and underlying gene expression levels demonstrate that the changes we observed in reverted gamergates were not random, but instead matched a clearly defined worker phenotype. If we had observed a mix of different physiological changes that were inconsistent with the worker phenotype, then we might have expected these changes to be driven by isolation stress alone. The effects of chronic stress are generally expected to increase the allostatic load and result in decreases in body mass and brain function [64], yet contrary to this prediction, we observed increases in brain size and venom production in reverted gamergates. Likewise, changes in gene expression of ELOV, which is involved in fatty acid elongation, and Vg, the vitellogenin egg yolk precursor, were consistent with downstream physiological responses of CHC profiles and ovarian activity.

The observed reversibility in phenotypic plasticity in H. saltator gamergates that transition back to non-reproductive workers is present despite the rarity of such events. Naturally, queens and gamergates reproduce until senescence and do not substantially contribute to foraging after the loss of status. Thus, there would appear to be little selective pressure to keep reproductive specialization reversible. However, reversibility of phenotypic plasticity could be maintained to allow workers the return to forager status after they have lost a reproductive tournament. Dominance tournaments last up to 40 days in H. saltator, and initially up to half the workforce of a colony may compete [41]. Physiological changes begin shortly after tournaments are initiated [21,42], and reversibility may allow workers to return to forager status without suffering long-term effects associated with the early transition period to reproductive status. Among social insects, lower termites offer another rare example of reversible plasticity, in which individuals develop regressively from nymphal instars to ‘worker' instars that lack wing buds [65]. The precise reason why regressive moults occur in lower termites is not understood, but it does have parallels to reversible plasticity in H. saltator. In both H. saltator and lower termites, reversible plasticity allows individuals to retain flexibility in shifting between non-reproductive and reproductive pathways.

Neither Facial Aggressiveness nor Facial Width to Height Ratio Are Related to Fighting Success

Richardson, Thomas, Anam Bhutta, Elena Bantoft, and R. Tucker Gilman. 2021. “Neither Facial Aggressiveness nor Facial Width to Height Ratio Are Related to Fighting Success.” PsyArXiv. April 14. doi:10.31234/osf.io/8zu6h

Abstract: There is a growing consensus that there is information in a man’s faces about how formidable (big and strong) he is. Recent work in mixed martial artists has shown that there may be facial correlates of fighting success. Fighters with more aggressive looking faces, as well as higher facial width to height ratios (fWHR), win a greater percentage of their fights. This has been used as evidence that human males may have evolved to signal and detect formidability using facial features. However, all previous studies have used datasets that may have considerable overlap, so it is important to replicate these effects in new samples. Moreover, some studies show that facial width to height ratio is correlated with body size, which may have confounded associations between fWHR and fighting success. The present study attempted to replicate and expand previous findings in 3 samples totalling several hundred professional fighters taken from several combat sporting leagues. I also tested whether head tilt affected ratings of aggressiveness, as previous studies have found conflicting effects. Overall, I found no significant links between fighting success and fWHR or facial aggressiveness. Tilting the head up or down both made a fighter’s face look more aggressive. Interestingly, there was only low-moderate agreement between raters on the apparent aggressiveness of a given face. Further, I found that facial width to height ratio was related to body size, and that body size mediated the link between fWHR and perceived aggression. This work casts doubt on several theories that argue the human face evolved to show fighting prowess and threat.

We believe we rely more on reasoning, and less on feelings, than others, driven by the motivation to self‐enhance because we believe the use of reasoning is superior & self‐enhancing, compared to the use of feelings

More Rational or More Emotional than Others? Lay Beliefs about Decision‐Making Strategies. Noah VanBergen  Nicholas H. Lurie  Zoey Chen. Journal of Consumer Psychology, April 13 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/jcpy.1244

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1382197818425806848

Abstract: Research demonstrates that people utilize both reasoning and feeling in decision making and that both strategies can be advantageous. However, little is known about how people perceive their decision making relative to others. Despite research findings and popular appeals supporting the use of affective decision processes, across a series of studies, we find that individuals believe they rely more on reasoning, and less on feelings, than others. These effects are driven by the motivation to self‐enhance where, in most contexts, individuals believe the use of reasoning is superior, and self‐enhancing, compared to the use of feelings. Consistent with this mechanism, beliefs that one’s decisions are more rational than others’ are: (a) stronger for those who exhibit greater beliefs in the superiority of reasoning (vs. feeling), (b) attenuated when the decision context precludes motivational thinking about the self or the self is affirmed, and (c) reversed when the use of feelings is perceived as more self‐enhancing. We demonstrate downstream consequences (e.g., decision delegation), rule out alternative explanations, and discuss practical implications of these lay beliefs.

Rolf Degen summarizing... Men have more explicit, overt sexual initiation turn-on preferences than women, which women rarely satisfy

Questionnaire for Turn-on Initiation Preference: Development and Initial Reliability and Validation. Petra Zebroff. The Journal of Sex Research, Apr 6 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224499.2021.1898525

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1382176988677472259

Abstract: This article presents four studies conducted to develop and validate a self-report measure of sexual turn-on initiation preference – the Questionnaire for Turn-On Initiation Preference (QTIP). Sexual initiation is a vital stage of sexual activity and yet there are few prior measures of initiation. Moreover, previous measures have focused exclusively on the person initiating and none have addressed the turn-on preferences of the recipient of the initiation. The objective of this questionnaire is to understand how individuals prefer their partner to initiate sex that enhances erotic turn-on. This questionnaire was developed in four stages. Study 1 focused on item generation using qualitative data from 219 men and women. Study 2 tested the original items on 2,027 respondents assessing potential factor structure, followed by item revisions and additions. Study 3 (N = 5,812) assessed the revised 61 items on a larger sample and evaluated factor structure, and Study 4 (N = 1,848) tested the factor structure of the 66-item version, with an exploratory factor analysis, capturing a four-factor structure of turn-on preference: Emotional, Seductive-Exotic, Surrender, and Sensation. A confirmatory factor analysis indicated adequate fit for the final short version of QTIP with 26 items, good test–retest reliability and convergent validity. Theoretical frameworks are discussed along with gender differences and clinical applications.

Pygmalion in the genes? On the potentially negative impacts of polygenic scores for educational attainment

Pygmalion in the genes? On the potentially negative impacts of polygenic scores for educational attainment. Lucas J. Matthews, Matthew S. Lebowitz, Ruth Ottman & Paul S. Appelbaum. Social Psychology of Education, Apr 13 2021. https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11218-021-09632-z

Abstract: Polygenic scores for educational attainment and related variables, such as IQ and “mathematical ability” are now readily available via direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies. Some researchers are even proposing the use of genetic tests in educational settings via “precision education,” in which individualized student education plans would be tailored to polygenic scores. The potential psychosocial impacts of polygenic scores for traits and outcomes relevant to education, however, have not been assessed. In online experiments, we asked participants to imagine hypothetical situations in which they or their classmates had recently received polygenic scores for educational attainment. Participants prompted to answer multi-choice questions as though they had received their own low-percentile score, compared to a control condition, scored significantly lower on measures of self-esteem and of self-perceived competence, academic efficacy, and educational potential. Similarly, those asked to evaluate a hypothetical classmate as though the classmate had received a low-percentile score attributed significantly lower academic efficacy and educational potential, compared to a control condition. Through possible mechanisms of stigma and self-fulfilling prophecies, our results highlight the potential psychosocial harms of exposure to low-percentile polygenic scores for educational attainment.

Addictions do have a genetic component, but genome-wide association studies indicate that it consists of many genetic factors with small additive effects - and of different genes than those originally suspected

The Streetlight Effect: Reappraising the Study of Addiction in Light of the Findings of Genome-wide Association Studies. Hall F.S. · Chen Y. · Resendiz-Gutierrez F. Brain, Behavior and Evolution, . https://doi.org/10.1159/000516169

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1381911439565283336

Abstract: Drug dependence has long been thought to have a genetic component. Research seeking to identify the genetic basis of addiction has gone through important transitions over its history, in part based upon the emergence of new technologies, but also as the result of changing perspectives. Early research approaches were largely dictated by available technology, with technological advancements having highly transformative effects on genetic research, but the limitations of technology also affected modes of thinking about the genetic causes of disease. This review explores these transitions in thinking about the genetic causes of addiction in terms of the “streetlight effect,” which is a type of observational bias whereby people search for something only where it is easiest to search. In this way, the genes that were initially studied in the field of addiction genetics were chosen because they were the most “obvious,” and formed current understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying the actions of drugs of abuse and drug dependence. The problem with this emphasis is that prior to the genomic era the vast majority of genes and proteins had yet to be identified, much less studied. This review considers how these initial choices, as well as subsequent choices that were also driven by technological limitations, shaped the study of the genetic basis of drug dependence. While genome-wide approaches overcame the initial biases regarding which genes to choose to study inherent in candidate gene studies and other approaches, genome-wide approaches necessitated other assumptions. These included additive genetic causation and limited allelic heterogeneity, which both appear to be incorrect. Thus, the next stage of advancement in this field must overcome these shortcomings through approaches that allow the examination of complex interactive effects, both gene × gene and gene × environment interactions. Techniques for these sorts of studies have recently been developed and represent the next step in our understanding of the genetic basis of drug dependence.

Keywords: Drug dependenceCandidate gene studiesGenome-wide association studies

Moving Forward in the Post-GWAS Era

This review has considered several important transitions in approaches to studying the genetic basis of addiction. In particular, this review has used the streetlight analogy to illustrate how initial attempts to understand addiction were biased by our choice of gene targets to study. GWAS overcame this initial bias but came with a separate set of problems. GWAS moved the field forward in many ways, but to continue to move the field forward it will be necessary to once again step back and consider what preconceptions continue to limit progress. One of the core assumptions that was necessary for GWAS was that the genetic effects are additive. A deeper understanding of the genetic basis of addiction will require considering gene × gene and gene × environment interactions and developing methods for doing so. Recent analytical and technical advancements are beginning to allow us to look not just at highly interactive genetic effects [Joubert et al., 2018, 2019], but also at multiple “omic” levels simultaneously [Weighill et al., 2019]. These multiple omic levels include the genome, the epigenome, the transcriptome, and the proteome, among others. Some of the inconsistency in genetic findings from candidate gene and GWAS approaches probably results not only from allelic heterogeneity, but also from the fact that the genetic “signal” is obscured by a heterogeneous set of complex genetic and environmental interactions that should be observable in alterations at other levels, including the epigenome and transcriptome. Moreover, it has become clear that many of the underlying mechanisms mediating drug dependence liability involve changes in gene expression that are highly tissue and cell specific [Gallagher and Chen-Plotkin, 2018]. This of course means that a single transcriptome analysis will not provide a full explanation of the underlying mechanisms. In the coming years newer approaches to the study of drug dependence, and other complex diseases, will be able to specify the genetic contributions to addiction that have been missed so far by examining gene × gene and gene × environment interactions, and how they affect multiple functional levels in a cell type- and tissue-specific manner. This will allow a much clearer view of the etiology and biology of addiction, as well as identifying more critical points that can be used in the developing addiction therapeutics. 

A regularity in US American politics is that liberals have more policy consensus than do conservatives; in European data, this conclusion is not as clear

Brandt, Mark J., Anthony Aron, Megan Parker, Cristina Rodas, and Megan Shaffer. 2021. “Leftists Possess More National Consensus in Europe in One of Two Datasets.” PsyArXiv. April 12. doi:10.31234/osf.io/dm4wt

Abstract: A regularity in US American politics is that liberals have more policy consensus than do conservatives, and both ideological groups have more consensus than moderates (Ondish & Stern, 2018). The idea is that conservatives’ local conformity paradoxically results in less consensus than liberals at the national level. If this is the case, then the liberal consensus effect should also be observed in other countries. We test this using data from Europe. In the European Social Survey (Country N = 38, N = 376,129) we find that on average leftists have more consensus than do rightists; however, we do not find this using the Eurobarometer (Country N = 18, N = 375,830). In both data sources we also observe variation in ideological differences between countries. These results suggest that there is a liberal/leftist consensus effect that can be found in Europe and the United States, but there are also exceptions.

Related to phylogeny, we summarize theories of romantic love’s evolutionary history & show that romantic love probably evolved in concert with pair-bonds in our recent ancestors

Proximate and Ultimate Perspectives on Romantic Love. Adam Bode and Geoff Kushnick. Front. Psychol., April 12 2021. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.573123

Abstract: Romantic love is a phenomenon of immense interest to the general public as well as to scholars in several disciplines. It is known to be present in almost all human societies and has been studied from a number of perspectives. In this integrative review, we bring together what is known about romantic love using Tinbergen’s “four questions” framework originating from evolutionary biology. Under the first question, related to mechanisms, we show that it is caused by social, psychological mate choice, genetic, neural, and endocrine mechanisms. The mechanisms regulating psychopathology, cognitive biases, and animal models provide further insights into the mechanisms that regulate romantic love. Under the second question, related to development, we show that romantic love exists across the human lifespan in both sexes. We summarize what is known about its development and the internal and external factors that influence it. We consider cross-cultural perspectives and raise the issue of evolutionary mismatch. Under the third question, related to function, we discuss the fitness-relevant benefits and costs of romantic love with reference to mate choice, courtship, sex, and pair-bonding. We outline three possible selective pressures and contend that romantic love is a suite of adaptions and by-products. Under the fourth question, related to phylogeny, we summarize theories of romantic love’s evolutionary history and show that romantic love probably evolved in concert with pair-bonds in our recent ancestors. We describe the mammalian antecedents to romantic love and the contribution of genes and culture to the expression of modern romantic love. We advance four potential scenarios for the evolution of romantic love. We conclude by summarizing what Tinbergen’s four questions tell us, highlighting outstanding questions as avenues of potential future research, and suggesting a novel ethologically informed working definition to accommodate the multi-faceted understanding of romantic love advanced in this review.

Discussion

Romantic love is a complex and multifaceted aspect of human biology and psychology. Our approach in this review has been to highlight how Tinbergen’s (1963) “four questions” can help us to synthesize the important strands related to the mechanisms, development, fitness-relevant functions, and evolutionary history of this phenomenon. Here, we synthesize what this review has presented in each level of explanation and suggest what this indicates about other levels of explanation. We then highlight some gaps in our knowledge that could be filled with future research and present a new ethologically informed working definition of romantic love.

What Do Tinbergen’s Four Questions Tell Us?

One of the benefits of using Tinbergen’s four questions as a framework to describe a complex trait such as romantic love is its ability for one level of explanation to provide insights into the other level of explanation (see Tinbergen, 1963; Bateson and Laland, 2013; Zietsch et al., 2020). In particular, an understanding of the proximate causes of romantic love has provided insights into the functions and phylogeny of romantic love although an understanding of the ultimate level of explanation provides some insights into the mechanisms of romantic love.

Multiple mechanistic systems involved in romantic love suggests it may serve multiple functions and may be a suite of adaptations and by-products rather than a single adaptation. We found that romantic love is associated with activity in a number of neural systems: reward and motivation, emotions, sexual desire and arousal, and social cognition. It is also associated with activity in higher-order cortical brain areas that are involved in attention, memory, mental associations, and self-representation. We also found that romantic love is associated with a number of endocrine systems: sex hormones, serotonin, dopamine, oxytocin, cortisol, and nerve growth factor. This is consistent with our position that romantic love serves mate choice, courtship, sex, and pair-bonding functions. Reward and motivation system activity may be particularly involved in the mate choice function of romantic love. Cortisol may be particularly indicative of the courtship function of romantic love, which overlaps with pair-bonding. Neural areas associated with sexual desire and arousal and the activity of sex hormones may play a particular role in the sex function. Finally, reward and motivation regions of the brain (rich with oxytocin receptors) and activity of the oxytocin system may play a particular role in the pair-bonding function of romantic love. Our understanding of the biological mechanisms that cause romantic love supports our description of romantic love’s functions.

Mechanistic similarities between romantic love and mother-infant bonding suggest that romantic love may have evolved by co-opting mother-infant bonding mechanisms. This articulates one hypothesis about the evolutionary history of romantic love that complements the predominate theory of independent emotion systems (Fisher, 1998, 2000; Fisher et al., 2002). This is supported by the psychological similarities between romantic love and early parental love.

Evidence of substantial activity of oxytocin receptor rich brain regions and the oxytocin endocrine system in romantic love lends weight to the position that romantic love only evolved after the neural circuitry associated with mate choice, specifically, regions of the mesolimbic reward pathway and dopamine rich areas, became populated by oxytocin receptors specifically receptive to stimuli from mating partners. That played a role in the evolution of enduring social attraction and pair-bond formation (Numan and Young, 2016). This supports our claim that romantic love probably evolved in conjunction with pair-bonds in humans. As a result, we are bolstered when we contend that romantic love emerged relatively recently in the history of humans.

The duration of romantic love also raises questions about the functions of romantic love. It has been said that the psychological features of romantic love can last from 18 months to 3 years in reciprocated romantic love. However, in our evolutionary history, romantic love would have usually occurred in the context of pregnancy and child birth. Mother-infant bonding becomes active around the time of childbirth. We are not aware of any research that has investigated whether romantic love can occur at the same time as mother-infant bonding or whether it must subside for mother-infant bonding to become active. Answering this question would elucidate if the functions of romantic love extinguish once reproduction has been successful. The existence of long-term romantic love also raises questions about the functions of romantic love. It has been posited that long-term romantic love is “part of a broad mammalian strategy for reproduction and long-term attachment” (Acevedo et al., 2020, p. 1). This may indicate that long-term romantic love serves similar functions to romantic love that lasts a shorter period of time.

Just as the multiple biological mechanisms involved in romantic love suggests a variety of functions, the functions of romantic love specified in our review suggests specific biological mechanisms are involved. As outlined above, specific functions may be associated with specific mechanisms and this should be an area of targeted research.

The possibility of romantic love evolving by co-opting mother-infant bonding mechanisms raises a number of possibilities in relation to the proximate causes of romantic love. It suggests that social activity associated with mother–infant bonding (e.g., filling of needs, specific cues) may be particularly important precursors to, or features of, romantic love. It suggests that many of the genes and polymorphisms involved in causing romantic love may have been present in mammals since the emergence of mother–infant bonding, making comparative animal research using mammals relevant. It also suggests that further research into shared neural activity between romantic love and mother–infant bonding is warranted.

We contend that romantic love probably emerged in conjunction with pair-bonds in humans or human ancestors. As such, further information about the similarities and differences between romantic love (pair-bonding) and companionate love (established pair-bonds) is needed. In particular, information about any role of the mesolimbic pathway (see Loth and Donaldson, 2021) or regions associated with sexual desire in companionate love would help to shed light on the evolutionary history of pair-bonding and pair-bonds. Specifically, this could shed light on if, as has been suggested (see Walum and Young, 2018), romantic love and pair-bonds are inextricably linked.

Areas of Future Research

One issue with research into the mechanisms of romantic love is that it has, with some exceptions (e.g., Fisher et al., 2010), utilized samples of people experiencing romantic love who are in a relationship with their loved one. Romantic love serves a mate choice and courtship function, and as a result, a large proportion of people experiencing romantic love are not in a relationship with their loved one (e.g., Bringle et al., 2013). A small number of studies have directly investigated unrequited love (e.g., Tennov, 1979; Baumeister et al., 1993; Hill et al., 1997; Aron et al., 1998; Bringle et al., 2013), but none of these investigated the mechanisms that cause romantic love. Studying such people might identify the specific contributions of particular mechanisms to particular functions. For example, the mechanisms associated with the pair-bonding function of romantic love may not be active in individuals who are engaging in courtship and the mechanisms involved in courtship may not be present in lovers who are already in a relationship with their loved one. Research would benefit from considering the mechanisms that underlie related psychopathologies and it would be useful to understand the relationship between mate preferences and romantic love.

Molecular genetics research, such as that undertaken by Acevedo et al. (2020), could further identify contributions of genes in people experiencing romantic love. Resting state fMRI provide an opportunity to investigate networks characteristic of psychopathology related to romantic love. Research should investigate the automatic/internal emotional regulatory network and the volitional/external regulatory network associated with mania/hypomania in people experiencing romantic love. Further research is required into the endocrinology of romantic love. In particular, further research is needed into the role of opioids, corticotropin-releasing factor, glutamate, acetylcholine, and vasopressin in romantic love. Efforts should be made to combine psychological and mechanisms research. For example, differences in neural or endocrine activity may be present in people experiencing romantic love who display elevated symptoms of depression compared to those who display reduced symptoms. As a result, neuroimaging and endocrinological studies could categorize people experiencing romantic love according to their levels of depression or type of hypomanic symptoms.

Given the large number of fMRI studies, interpreting the neuroimaging literature can be overwhelming. It has been nearly 10 years since the last meta-analysis of fMRI studies including romantic love. It is time for another one that focuses solely on romantic love. There is also a pressing need to attempt to replicate and extend endocrine studies and to specifically investigate the oxytocin system in people experiencing romantic love using validated measures of romantic love. As with many areas of psychological research (Henrich et al., 2010), and specifically in areas related to mating psychology (Apicella et al., 2019; Scelza et al., 2020), there is a pressing need to ensure that samples used in research are not exclusively Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic.

Limited ontogeny research has elucidated the mechanisms causing romantic love across the lifespan. The literature that has (e.g., Luoto, 2019a), has focused on mate choice, rather than romantic love, per se. We know nothing about the neurobiology or endocrinology of romantic love in children or about the endocrinology of long-term romantic love. It would be useful to investigate how the functions of romantic love differ according to age of individuals or the duration of romantic love. Internal and external factors influence romantic love, although there has been surprisingly little research into this topic. It would be prudent to continue to develop a more detailed understanding of the factors that lead to romantic love (e.g., Riela et al., 2010, 2017). It would be useful to better understand the relationship between attachment styles and romantic love. Research should investigate if romantic love can occur at the same time as mother-infant bonding, or if they are mutually exclusive states.

Research into the functions of romantic love is sparse. There is a need for clear, evidence-informed definitions and descriptions of each of the functions of romantic love. It is likely that different mechanisms moderate different functions, and research should attempt to determine the contribution of specific genetic, neural, and endocrine activity to each individual function (see Zietsch et al., 2020). The advent of contraception and the adoption of family planning strategies means romantic love now serves more of a sex function than a pregnancy function in some environments. This is particularly the case early in a relationship. Pregnancy may become a feature as a relationship progresses and the fitness consequences of romantic love need to be investigated. Romantic love’s role as a suite of adaptations and by-products should be investigated. There is theoretical support for the notion that romantic love serves a health-promoting function (e.g., Esch and Stefano, 2005); however, there is a limited number of studies demonstrating a health-promoting effect of romantic love.

The relative infancy of genetic research, the lack of a clear fossil record, and the small number of species with which comparative analysis can be undertaken, means novel and creative means of investigating the phylogeny of romantic love must be undertaken. There is a need to pin-point the phylogenetic emergence of romantic love and the factors that caused it. To do this, more research into the genetics of romantic love must be conducted, and this should consider the phylogeny of specific genes and polymorphisms (e.g., Acevedo et al., 2020; see also Walum and Young, 2018). Efforts to assess the contribution of sexual selection to the evolution of romantic love are warranted. Studies of newly discovered fossils can help to identify shifts in sexual dimorphism that are indicative of pair-bonds. Further observational and experimental research into romantic love in hunter-gatherer tribes could tell us more about how romantic love functioned in our evolutionary history. Comparative research still has much to contribute. Research should explore the possibility that initial changes to the ancestral mammalian physiology that led directly to human romantic love arose in response to selection on both mating and non-mating-related behavior, such as pro-sociality (e.g., Barron and Hare, 2020; Luoto, 2020) or unique aspects of our species’ parenting repertoire. It might be fruitful to further investigate the relationship between romantic love and life history theory (e.g., Olderbak and Figueredo, 2009; Marzec and Łukasik, 2017). Finally, efforts should be made to elaborate and test the theory that romantic love emerged by co-opting mother–infant bonding mechanisms.

A New Working Definition of Romantic Love

The introduction to this review provided four definitions or descriptions of romantic love. For decades, most definitions (Hendrick and Hendrick, 1986; Sternberg, 1986; Hatfield and Rapson, 1993) of romantic love have informed research into the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral characteristics of romantic love. The past two decades, however, have seen an increasing focus on the biology of romantic love. Only recently has an evolution-informed definition been proposed (Fletcher et al., 2015). That working definition, however, does not incorporate much of the research that provides insight into the proximate and ultimate causes of romantic love.

We believe that the analytical approach taken in this review has identified sufficient information to justify the development of a new ethologically informed working definition of romantic love. The purpose would be to create an inclusive definition that is useful for researchers in varied disciplines investigating romantic love’s psychological characteristics, genetics, neurobiology, endocrinology, development, fitness-relevant functions, and evolutionary history. It may also be of use to psychologists and psychiatrists attempting to understand the experience and etiology of romantic love in their practice. It should be sufficiently precise and descriptive to both guide and link research. We provide, here, a working definition of romantic love:

Romantic love is a motivational state typically associated with a desire for long-term mating with a particular individual. It occurs across the lifespan and is associated with distinctive cognitive, emotional, behavioral, social, genetic, neural, and endocrine activity in both sexes. Throughout much of the life course, it serves mate choice, courtship, sex, and pair-bonding functions. It is a suite of adaptations and by-products that arose sometime during the recent evolutionary history of humans.

We situate the study of romantic love within the context of existing human mating literature. Our definition recognizes that romantic love is experienced across the lifetime of an individual, that research has shed light on the social, psychological, genetic, neural, and endocrine characteristics associated with it, and that it occurs in both sexes. Our definition also recognizes that romantic love serves a variety of functions and that these functions may vary across the lifespan. It does not exclude long-term or unrequited romantic love from the definition. Health is not identified as a function of romantic love in our definition despite being considered in our review. If more evidence comes to light, this definition can be amended to incorporate health.

Our definition has similarities and differences with the definition proposed by Fletcher et al. (2015). This is appropriate given both are informed by evolutionary approaches which differ somewhat. We do not specifically define romantic love as being a commitment device or reference passion, intimacy, and caregiving. In our review, we recognize that romantic love is a commitment device and serves to display commitment and signal fidelity as part of its courtship function. We believe that reference to romantic love’s behavioral activity and courtship and pair-bonding functions sufficiently encapsulate this concept. Sternberg’s (1997) definition of romantic love and Fletcher et al.’s (2015) definition include references to passion and intimacy. Caregiving (e.g., provision of psychological and emotional resources, sharing resources), while associated with pair-bonding, is not sufficiently definitive of romantic love using Tinbergen’s four questions as a framework to include in our definition.

We do not reference the universality of romantic love. While some experts assert its universality (e.g., Fletcher et al., 2015; Buss, 2019), we believe that the finding of Jankowiak and Fischer (1992) leaves enough uncertainty for it to be prudent to omit this aspect from our definition. Their research has found no evidence of romantic love in fifteen cultures (see Jankowiak and Paladino, 2008, for update to the original investigation) although this is probably the result of lack of data rather than evidence to the contrary. Once this matter is settled, which could be achieved by further investigating those societies where no evidence of romantic love was found, the definition can be amended. Fletcher et al. (2015) state that romantic love is associated with pair-bonds. We do the same by stating that pair-bonding is one of the functions of romantic love.

We also do not make specific reference to romantic love suppressing the search for mates. We recognize this as a cost in our review, but do not believe that this is so definitive of romantic love to include in our definition. Rather, we believe that our reference to “behavioral” activity and the “mate choice” function of romantic love in our definition sufficiently accommodates this feature. Our definition provides more detail than that provided by Fletcher et al. (2015) by including elements derived from substantial research into the mechanisms, ontogeny, functions, and phylogeny of romantic love. Like the Fletcher et al. (2015) definition, our definition recognizes that romantic love has distinct psychological characteristics and that we know about some of the proximate mechanisms that regulate it. However, as explained above, we do not include reference to the health-promoting effects of romantic love.

As more information about romantic love is gathered, we anticipate the definition to develop. However, we believe that this definition is an improvement upon previous definitions and adequately captures what is currently known about romantic love’s proximate and ultimate causes. It would be useful for researchers investigating romantic love from myriad perspectives. This definition should be critiqued and improved, and we welcome any such efforts from researchers and theorists across the spectrum of academic disciplines.

Politically misaligned bureaucrats incur in greater cost overruns, are generally less motivated, & are perceived as less loyal to their missions

Ideology and Performance in Public Organizations. Jorg L. Spenkuch, Edoardo Teso & Guo Xu. NBER Working Paper 28673, April 2021. DOI 10.3386/w28673

Abstract: We combine personnel records of the United States federal bureaucracy from 1997-2019 with administrative voter registration data to study how ideological alignment between politicians and bureaucrats affects the personnel policies and performance of public organizations. We present four results. (i) Consistent with the use of the spoils system to align ideology at the highest levels of government, we document significant partisan cycles and substantial turnover among political appointees. (ii) By contrast, we find virtually no political cycles in the civil service. The lower levels of the federal government resemble a "Weberian" bureaucracy that appears to be largely protected from political interference. (iii) Democrats make up the plurality of civil servants. Overrepresentation of Democrats increases with seniority, with the difference in career progression being largely explained by positive selection on observables. (iv) Political misalignment carries a sizeable performance penalty. Exploiting presidential transitions as a source of "within-bureaucrat" variation in the political alignment of procurement officers over time, we find that contracts overseen by a misaligned officer exhibit cost overruns that are, on average, 8% higher than the mean overrun. We provide evidence that is consistent with a general "morale effect," whereby misaligned bureaucrats are less motivated.

---

Panel A of Figure 7 shows that the overrepresentation of Democrats increases as we move up the hierarchy. Among employees in grades 1-12 of the GS, we find about 50% of Democrats (30% of Republicans and 20% of independents), which rises to approximately 56% at the top of the GS (grades 13-15), and to 63% among career SES.34 Intriguingly, this finding appears to be driven in large part by selection on observables.  First, Democrats have, on average, higher levels of human capital than Republicans. In Table 4, we report estimates from regressing indicators for educational attainment on a bureaucrat's political affliation. In order to measure education at entry, we restrict the sample to the first quarter in which the employee is observed.35 According to our results, Democrats are 6.6 p.p. more likely than Republicans to hold a college degree (column 1), and 8.3 p.p. more likely to have some form of post-graduate education (column 4). We continue to observe differences in human capital after controlling for bureau (columns 2 and 5) and pay-level fixed effects (columns 3 and 6)|although the gap between Democrats and Republicans does narrow. The pattern of coefficients in Table 4, therefore, suggests that higher human capital allows Democrats to be hired in bureaus and occupations that require more advanced skills as well as at higher steps of the hierarchy (see also Appendix Table A3).  Moreover, the fact that there do remain residual differences after accounting for bureau and pay grade implies that, even within comparable jobs, Democrat civil servants tend to be positively selected.

In addition to being positively selected at the time of hire, Democrats are more likely to be promoted after they enter the bureaucracy. In Table 5, we present estimates of partisan differences in promotions from grades 13{15 of the GS to the career SES (columns 1{3), as well as promotions from grades 1{12 of the GS to grades 13-15 (columns 4{6).36 Given that promotions are rare events at the quarterly level, all estimates in Table 5 are multiplied by 1,000. The results show that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be promoted to higher levels of the hierarchy (columns 1 and 4), with a sizeable share of the gap being attributable to differences in educational attainment and the bureaus in which they serve (columns 2{3 and 5{6).37 The second factor that helps to explain greater overrepresentation of Democrats at higher levels of the bureaucracy is their lower propensity to exit. To illustrate this, Panel A of Figure 8 plots survival curves by partisan affiliation. While about 5% of civil servants of either party exit after the first quarter, the share of those who remain within the federal government as time progresses is significantly higher for Democrats. In Panel B of Figure 8, we repeat the exercise in regression form, controlling for bureau  quarter-of-entry fixed effects. After 10 years, Democrats are about 4.5% more likely than Republicans and independents to be still employed in the civil service.

5 Conclusion

A central question in the governance of any organization is how to align the objectives of leaders with those of their subordinates. In this paper, we turn to the U.S. federal bureaucracy to study the role of mission alignment in organizations.

To this end, we combine administrative data on the near universe of federal government workers with data on all registered voters in the U.S. The resulting dataset allows us to shed some of the first light on the ideological leanings of a large number of individual civil servants, and thereby peek into the black box of \bureaucratic politics." We establish three stylized facts. First, politicians do use the limited power they have over personnel policies in order to achieve greater ideological alignment between themselves and the upper echelon of the bureaucracy. The political cycles in our data are consistent with the use of the spoils system to better align the highest layers of the bureaucracy with the goals of the president. Second, we find a remarkable degree of political insulation among career civil servants. In contrast to political appointees, we see virtually no political cycles in the civil service. Our findings, therefore, suggest that, at its lower levels, the federal government resembles a \Weberian" bureaucracy, which is largely protected from political interference. Third, Democrats make up the plurality of civil servants. In addition, we show that Democratic civil servants are especially overrepresented in higher layers of the bureaucracy. Any observed difference in career progression, however, is in large part due to selection on observables. Democratic-leaning bureaucrats have on average higher levels of educational attainment, and they are less likely to exit the civil service, which results in a greater accumulation of experience. Both of these two facts are consistent with the idea that Democrats have a higher proclivity for public service.

The existence of an impartial and politically insulated career civil service is often seen as the hallmark of good governance and a \Weberian state." While the insulation of the career civil service prevents political interference, civil servants may have their own preferences and ideological leanings, which can conflict with those of the president. As a consequence, to implement an administration's agenda, politicians and department heads often need to work with bureaucrats whose personal values are not aligned with the present mission of the organization. To shed light on the costs of such misalignment, we focus on a subset of civil servants who work across all departments of the government and for whom we can measure performance: procurement ofcers. Linking procurement contracts to the matched personnel and voter registration data allows us to study the mission-alignment of procurement ofcers across nearly all departments of the federal bureaucracy. Strikingly, we find that political misalignment increases cost overruns by 8%. We provide evidence that suggests that a general \morale effect" is an important mechanism behind this finding, whereby bureaucrats who are ideologically misaligned with the organizational mission have lower motivation. As political turnover leads to sizable mission-misalignment between politicians and civil servants, our findings provide direct evidence on the costs of political insulation of the bureaucracy, which should be traded off against the benefits of avoiding political interference. As more and more organizations embrace a mission-driven focus, our findings may have implications beyond the public sector.

From 2007... Among the married, a higher discrepancy between men's and women's number of previous intercourse partners was related to lower levels of love, satisfaction, and commitment in the relationship

From 2007... Matching in Sexual Experience for Married, Cohabitating, and Dating Couples. Luis T. Garcia & Charlotte Markey. The Journal of Sex Research, Volume 44, 2007 - Issue 3, Pages 250-255. Dec 5 2007. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224490701443817

Abstract: This study examined heterosexual romantic partners' number of intercourse partners prior to the initiation of their relationship to determine if a significant positive correlation (matching) occurred between partners, and if this matching was associated with their level of love and satisfaction with and commitment to the relationship. One hundred and six couples who were dating, cohabitating, or married participated in this study. Results indicated that, with the exception of cohabitating couples, romantic partners showed a significant level of matching in the prior number of intercourse partners. Further, among the married couples, a higher discrepancy between men's and women's number of previous intercourse partners was related to lower levels of love, satisfaction, and commitment in the relationship.