What Are the Necessary Conditions for Wisdom? Examining Intelligence, Creativity, Meaning-Making, and the Big-Five Traits

What Are the Necessary Conditions for Wisdom? Examining Intelligence, Creativity, Meaning-Making, and the Big-Five Traits . Mengxi Dong, Marc A. Fournier. Collabra: Psychology (2022) 8 (1): 33145. https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.33145

Abstract: We investigated whether intelligence, creativity, meaning-making, and the Big-Five traits are necessary conditions for wisdom. We used Amazon’s TurkPrime to recruit 298 participants who ranged from 20 to 73 years of age. Participants completed measures of intelligence, creativity, meaning-making, and the Big-Five traits, along with a battery of self-report and performance wisdom measures. We used principal component analyses to reduce the wisdom battery into self-report and performance wisdom components, followed by necessary condition analysis and segmented regressions to examine whether the cognitive and personality variables under consideration here were necessary conditions for each wisdom component. We found that intelligence was necessary for the performance wisdom component whereas the Big-Five traits were necessary for the self-report wisdom component. This study is the first to demonstrate that high levels of wisdom are unlikely without some level of intelligence and adaptive personality traits.

Keywords:wisdom, intelligence, personality, necessary condition analysis, segmented regression

Necessary Conditions for Wisdom

We found that the necessary conditions for wisdom largely depended on the form of wisdom in question. Intelligence was the only necessary condition for wisdom performance. Specifically, a score above 20 on the WPT-Q, which was close to the population average on the test (Wonderlic, Inc., 2004), was necessary for scoring above average on the performance wisdom component (i.e., a component score above 1.0). However, although the association between wisdom and intelligence was positive before the estimated breakpoint at 21 and negative after it, this breakpoint was not statistically significant, possibly due to inadequate sample size. The threshold hypothesis was thus not supported. We conclude that while intelligence is a necessary condition for the kind of wisdom captured by the performance wisdom component, more empirical evidence is needed before any conclusions can be drawn about the threshold hypothesis. For self-reported wisdom, however, intelligence was not necessary. Although a significant breakpoint existed in the relation between intelligence and the self-report wisdom component, the slopes before and after the breakpoint were not significantly different from zero. It is possible that the slopes would be statistically significant with larger sample sizes; alternatively, the statistical significance of the breakpoint could indicate a Type I error. Future research with larger sample sizes should thus be conducted to cross-validate the results. We concluded that while intelligence might be required for wisdom performance, it was not necessary for self-reported wisdom.

In contrast to intelligence, the Big-Five personality traits were necessary for self-reported wisdom, but not for wisdom performance. The threshold hypothesis was not supported for any of the traits, suggesting that the relationships between these traits and the self-report wisdom component were linear. There are at least two ways to interpret the finding that the Big-Five personality traits were necessary for high scores on the self-report wisdom component. First, the findings might corroborate the proposition that wisdom is an adaptive configuration of personality characteristics (e.g., Ardelt et al., 2019). This proposition has mainly been espoused by researchers who have developed and routinely used self-report measures of wisdom. If this proposition is true, it would explain our findings.

Alternatively, the strong correlations between the Big-Five traits and the self-report wisdom component could be due to common method variance, which would suggest that necessity effects pertained to the self-report method (i.e., it was necessary to score high on one self-report measure in order to score high on another) rather than to the constructs (i.e., it was necessary to be high on a trait in order to be high on wisdom). Although similarity in measurement method does not automatically lead to inflated correlations (e.g., Spector, 2006), measures sharing similar methods can be prone to similar systematic biases, which in turn can inflate the correlation between them. For instance, meta-analytic studies have demonstrated that social desirability is a systematic response bias that is correlated with emotional stability, extraversion, conscientiousness (Ones et al., 1996) and self-report wisdom measures (Dong et al., 2022), suggesting that it could have contributed to the differences between the wisdom components in the current study. However, as social desirability was not measured, we could not confirm whether it had indeed led to inflated correlations. Future studies should thus re-examine whether the Big-Five personality traits constitute necessary conditions for self-reported wisdom while ruling out the effect of common method variance. This can be achieved in at least two ways. First, common method variance can be statistically controlled. One way to achieve this is by measuring systematic response biases (e.g., social desirability) that affect both self-report wisdom measures and measures of the Big-Five personality traits. Systematic response biases (e.g., halo) can also be modelled and controlled for using statistical techniques such as structural equation modeling. Alternatively, methods other than self-report, such as informant reports, can be used to assess the Big-Five personality traits.

Non-Necessary Predictors of Wisdom

Our findings further suggest that while some characteristics, such as creativity and meaning-making, are correlated with wisdom, they are not necessary conditions for it. Of these constructs, meaning-making has been theorized as a resource for wisdom (e.g., Glück et al., 2019). It is important to note that the findings of the current study do not rule out this possibility, as not all resources are necessary conditions. For instance, it is possible that the absence of meaning-making can be compensated by the presence of another resource, or that rather than being a necessary condition for wisdom, meaning-making may be a sufficient condition (i.e., it is impossible to be unwise if one has a strong tendency to make meaning). Future studies should therefore explore the ways in which meaning-making serves as a resource for wisdom.

Interpreting the Wisdom Components

It is important to note that although we interpreted the two wisdom components as representing performance and self-report wisdom, there are alternative interpretations. One such interpretation is to consider the components as representing general wisdom and personal wisdom. General wisdom refers to insights into life in general; it is the kind of wisdom that manifests when advising others. Personal wisdom refers to insights into one’s own life. The measures constituting the self-report wisdom component are all personal wisdom measures, whereas the measures constituting the performance wisdom component are all general wisdom measures. This perfect overlap makes it difficult to evaluate the appropriateness of either interpretation. In favor of the personal vs. general wisdom interpretation are the componential loadings of the Bremen wisdom paradigm and the 3DWS, the two measures that did not meet the .40 cut-off to be included in either component. Specifically, both measures assess personal wisdom and loaded more strongly on the self-report wisdom component (.39 and .38, respectively) than on the performance wisdom component (.16 and .09, respectively). However, as these loadings were low, we concluded that the evidence for the two components representing general and personal wisdom was not strong. Furthermore, if the self-report wisdom component actually represented personal wisdom, then it should have been more strongly correlated with meaning-making, as the lessons and insights learnt through one’s experiences should lead to more personal wisdom by transforming how one interacts with the world. However, meaning-making was instead more strongly correlated with the performance wisdom component and had no significant correlation with the self-report wisdom component, a pattern of results that is more in line with the self-report vs. performance interpretation of the components than with the personal vs. general wisdom interpretation.

Limitations and Future Directions

The current study has several limitations, all of which can inform directions for future investigations. First, the current study only offers preliminary insights that should be replicated. Specifically, the current study’s frequentist approach to statistical inferences necessitates replications to ensure that the Type I error rate is on par with the alpha level (e.g., Mayo, 2018). Furthermore, the current study might be underpowered to detect the necessity effects and changes in slope, as the sample size was planned based on the magnitude of small-to-medium effect sizes commonly found in personality and social psychology, rather than on the magnitudes of necessity effects and changes in slopes, as we had no way to reasonably estimate the latter beforehand. Future replications of the current study could use simulations to determine the sample size needed to detect the effect sizes found in the current study.

Second, the results of the current study might be dependent on the principal components extracted, suggesting that replication studies will have different results if different wisdom components are extracted. Of concern is the fact that two commonly used measures of wisdom, the 3DWS and the Bremen wisdom paradigm, were excluded from the analyses that informed the key conclusions due to low componential loadings. As the 3DWS and the Bremen wisdom paradigm are prominent wisdom measures that meaningfully contribute to the discourse on the definition and operationalization of wisdom, not including these measures may limit the generalizability of the current findings to the construct of wisdom. Findings of the current study should thus be corroborated by other datasets before more definite conclusions can be drawn regarding the necessary conditions for wisdom.

Third, the current study measured intelligence using the WPT-Q, which could not distinguish between crystallized and fluid intelligence. The WPT-Q was chosen as it was the only reliable, valid, and cost-effective instrument suitable for online, unsupervised administration. However, as crystallized intelligence, or the knowledge of the world and learnt operations, has been shown to be more strongly associated with wisdom than fluid intelligence, or the general ability to solve novel problems that is independent of learning (e.g., Dong et al., 2022; Glück et al., 2013; Grossmann et al., 2012; Mickler & Staudinger, 2008; Pasupathi et al., 2001; Staudinger et al., 1997), the inability to distinguish between the two aspects of intelligence limits the scope of the current study. Future studies should further explore the necessity of intelligence for wisdom by examining fluid and crystallized intelligence separately.

Fourth, in order to limit the length of the study protocol and avoid participant fatigue, meaning-making was only measured for one specific situation. It is possible that this one state measure of meaning-making might not accurately reflect participants’ general tendencies to make meaning out of life experiences or represent individual differences in the construct. This may then affect our ability to detect significant necessity effects of meaning-making on wisdom. Future studies should thus re-examine the necessity of meaning-making for wisdom using measures that can better reflect individuals’ general tendencies to make meaning and individual differences in the construct.

Fifth, findings of the current study should be interpreted as probabilistic and not categorical. Given that the current study examined a sample drawn from the population, not the population itself, significant necessity effects indicated that high levels of wisdom were relatively unlikely, but not impossible, with low levels of certain cognitive and personality characteristics. It is thus incorrect to conclude based on the present findings that low levels of these characteristics categorically preclude one from being wise.

Finally, the cross-sectional nature of the data and the statistical analyses employed dictate that the current study is unable to offer any insights into the causal relationships between the cognitive and personality variables on the one hand and wisdom on the other hand. Specifically, neither the NCA nor the segmented regression analysis make any causal assumptions and their results cannot be used to draw causal conclusions. Furthermore, in logic, the statement that one variable is a necessary condition for another variable is not a statement of causal relations. Given the nature of its data and analytical techniques, therefore, the results of the current study should not be interpreted as indicating that the possession of certain cognitive and personality characteristics causes, or even temporally proceeds, wisdom attainment. Instead, results of the present study simply suggest that low levels of certain cognitive and personality characteristics are associated with a low (but not zero) probability of having high levels of wisdom. We acknowledge, however, that when researchers discuss intelligence and certain personality traits as necessary conditions for wisdom, the implication is often that these conditions are necessary because they are resources that can facilitate wisdom development and manifestation. While findings of the current study are consistent with this view, they cannot speak to the causal implications of it.

Unconvenient scientific evidence: Harm over-estimators were more supportive of censoring scientific research; & those more offended by scientific findings reported greater difficulty understanding them (“motivated confusion”)

Harm Hypervigilance in Public Reactions to Scientific Evidence. Cory Clark, Maja Graso, Ilana Redstone, Philip E. Tetlock. March 2022. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.35921.20329

Abstract: Two preregistered studies (n = 1,423; one with a U.S. nationally representative sample) tested the harm-hypervigilance hypothesis in citizens’ risk assessments of controversial behavioral science findings. As expected, people consistently overestimated all harmful reactions to scientific findings with a medium-to-large average effect size (and underestimated all helpful ones). Additional analyses found (1) harm over-estimators were more supportive of censoring scientific research; (2) those more offended by scientific findings reported greater difficulty understanding them (“motivated confusion”); (3) social network ideological heterogeneity predicted more accurate (lower) estimates of harmful reactions (especially among ideologically extreme participants) and social network ideological homogeneity predicted more accurate (higher) estimates of helpful reactions; (4) mixed evidence on whether ideological groups overestimated harms that challenged their moral concerns. These findings raise the question: When does harm hypervigilance become net harmful by impeding scientific discovery and delaying evidence-based solutions to societal problems?

Extensive research suggests that short-term meditation interventions may hold therapeutic promise for a wide range of psychosocial outcomes; methodologically rigorous study finds null effect of mindfulness & compassion interventions

Kaplan, Deanna M., Matthias R. Mehl, Steven P. Cole, and Charles Raison. 2022. “Implications of a “null” Randomized Controlled Trial of Mindfulness and Compassion Interventions in Healthy Adults” PsyArXiv. March 15. doi:10.31234/osf.io/38xv6 - Implications of a “null” randomized controlled trial of mindfulness and compassion interventions in healthy adults

Abstract

Objective: Extensive research suggests that short-term meditation interventions may hold therapeutic promise for a wide range of psychosocial outcomes. In response to calls to subject these interventions to more methodologically rigorous tests, a randomized controlled trial tested the effectiveness of a mindfulness meditation intervention and a compassion meditation intervention against an active control in a sample of demographically diverse, medically and psychiatrically healthy adults.

Methods: Two hundred and four participants completed a battery of questionnaires to assess psychological experience, participated in a laboratory stress test to measure their biological stress reactivity, and wore the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR) to assess daily behaviors before and after an eight-week intervention (mindfulness meditation intervention, compassion meditation intervention, or health education discussion group).

Results: Neither meditation intervention reliably impacted participants’ subjective experience, biological stress reactivity, or objectively assessed daily behaviors. Further, post-hoc moderation analyses found that neither baseline distress nor intervention engagement significantly moderated the effects.

Conclusion: Results from this trial – which was methodologically rigorous and powered to detect all but small effects – were essentially null. These results are an important data point for the body of research about meditation interventions. Implications of these non-significant effects are discussed in the context of prior studies, and future directions for contemplative intervention research are recommended.

Biological processes have provided new insights into diverging labour market trajectories; higher testosterone levels reduce the risk of becoming or staying unemployed

In And Out Of Unemployment –Labour Market Transitions And The Role Of Testosterone. Peter Eibich t al. Economics & Human Biology, March 15 2022, 101123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101123

Highlights

• We examine the impact of testosterone on labour market transitions of British men.

• We link UK Household Longitudinal Study with the Health and biomarkers Survey.

• We estimate probit regression models adjusting for known confounders.

• We use genetic variants as instruments in a Mendelian Randomisation analysis.

• Higher testosterone levels reduce the risk of becoming or staying unemployed.

Abstract: Biological processes have provided new insights into diverging labour market trajectories. This paper uses population variation in testosterone levels to explain transition probabilities into and out of unemployment. We examine labour market transitions for 2,004 initially employed and 111 initially unemployed British men from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (“Understanding Society”) between 2011 and 2013. We address the endogeneity of testosterone levels by using genetic variation as instrumental variables (Mendelian Randomization). We find that for both initially unemployed men as well as initially employed men, higher testosterone levels reduce the risk of unemployment. Based on previous studies and descriptive evidence, we argue that these effects are likely driven by differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills as well as job search behaviour of men with higher testosterone levels. Our findings suggest that latent biological processes can affect job search behaviour and labour market outcomes without necessarily relating to illness and disability.

JEL: I10J64C23

Keywords: labour market dynamicsunemploymenttestosterone

Men who got negative romantic feedback reported less support for casual sex & for increasing the minimum wage

Changes in Positive Affect Due to Popularity in an Experimental Dating Context Influence Some of Men’s, but Not Women’s, Socio-Political Attitudes. Francesca R. Luberti, Khandis R. Blake & Robert C. Brooks. Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology, Mar 14 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40750-022-00188-6

Abstract

Objective: Trait mate value covaries with several socio-political attitudes. One’s dating popularity in a mating market can, however, shift one’s self-perceived mate value in that market. We tested whether dating popularity could therefore also shift socio-political attitudes, and whether trait mate value could moderate this effect.

Method: Heterosexual participants (N = 237) reported their trait mate value. Participants then recorded a video of themselves and received video responses from five opposite-sex peers, each consisting of either positive or negative romantic feedback—forming the manipulation (popularity: from low to high). Afterwards, we measured participants’ attitudes to traditional gender roles, casual sex, minimum wage and healthcare, and implicit sexual and political attitudes.

Results: Unpopular men reported less support for casual sex than popular men. There was no main effect on women. Unpopular men had lower positive affect than popular men, and in turn men with lower positive affect reported less support for casual sex and for increasing the minimum wage and access to healthcare than men with higher positive affect. Unpopular low mate-value women reported more support for casual sex than popular low mate-value women. Unpopular men of low and average mate value reported less support for casual sex than popular men of low and average mate value. There was no effect on average mate-value women and high mate-value women and men.

Conclusions: Changes in positive affect due to dating popularity influence some of men’s, but not women’s, socio-political attitudes, and trait mate value moderates the effects of popularity on attitudes to casual sex.

Agreeableness contributes to higher commitment to the spouse, but appears to make people more reluctant to express their sexual needs and desires

Big Five personality traits and sex. Uwe Jirjahn & Martha Ottenbacher. Journal of Population Economics, Mar 14 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-022-00893-2

Abstract: Sexual well-being plays an important role in the quality of life. Against this background, we provide an economics-based approach to the relationship between the Big Five personality traits and various dimensions of sexuality. From a theoretical viewpoint, personality influences sexual well-being not only by how a person feels about sex, but also by how the person behaves in a sexual relationship. Personality shapes information sharing about sexual preferences, the way dissonant sexual preferences of the partners are handled, and the extent to which a person is committed to promises made to a partner. Using a large representative dataset from Germany, we find that personality traits play a role in a person’s own sexual satisfaction, in (the self-assessment of) fulfilling their partner’s sexual needs and desires, in sexual communication, in actual and desired frequency of sex, and in extradyadic affairs. Conscientiousness contributes to a mutually beneficial sex life and increases a person’s commitment to their partner. The opposite holds true for neuroticism. While extraversion and openness to experience help realize a mutually beneficial sex life, we find no evidence that they have a commitment value. On the contrary, extraversion is associated with lower commitment to the partner. Agreeableness contributes to higher commitment. However, agreeableness appears to make people more reluctant to express their sexual needs and desires.

Discussion of results

Our results show that the Big Five personality traits play an important role in the sex life of people. The Big Five personality traits not only play a role in a person’s sexual satisfaction. They also play a role in how the person behaves in a sexual relationship. This conforms to our theoretical considerations suggesting that personality traits influence sexual communication and information sharing, the way dissonant sexual preferences of the partners are handled, and the extent to which the person is committed to promises made to the partner.

Neuroticism is associated with lower sexual satisfaction. On the one hand, a higher degree of emotional instability may entail that a person derives less utility from sex as he or she fears sex or is disgusted about some aspects of sexuality. On the other hand, our results suggest that a higher degree of emotional instability negatively affects sexual satisfaction through the person’s behavior in the sexual relationship. Neuroticism is negatively associated with (the self-assessment of) being a good sex partner and fulfilling the partner’s sexual needs and desires. This indicates that a person’s emotional instability also negatively affects the partner’s sexual satisfaction and makes a mutually beneficial sex life less likely. Our findings on sexual communication corroborate this view. Neuroticism is negatively associated with expressing preferences during sex and the ability of expressing sexual needs and desires in general. This conforms to the notion that emotional instability entails inadequate and hostile sexual communication and information sharing. Furthermore, neuroticism is associated with a lower frequency of sex and a lower likelihood of being satisfied with the actual frequency of sex. Interestingly, a higher degree of neuroticism increases both the likelihood of desiring less frequent and the likelihood of desiring more frequent sex. This indicates that a neurotic person has rather volatile sexual preferences and is driven by impulsivity. Hence, it is more difficult for the person and the partner to coordinate their preferences and to handle dissonant preferences. Finally, our estimations show that neuroticism is associated with an increased likelihood of having extradyadic affairs. This conforms to the notion that lower self-control and a higher discounting of the future entail more severe commitment problems.

Conscientiousness is associated with higher sexual satisfaction. Moreover, it is also positively associated with being a good sex partner and fulfilling the partner’s sexual needs and desires. Thus, our findings fit the notion that a higher degree of conscientiousness helps realize a win–win situation within the sexual relationship. As suggested by our theoretical considerations, conscientiousness may contribute to a more balanced style of sexual communication, a more fair-minded and cooperative handling of dissonant sexual preferences, and a higher commitment to promises made to the partner. Indeed, our empirical results confirm a positive role of conscientiousness in sexual communication. Conscientiousness is positively associated with expressing preferences during sex and expressing sexual needs and desires in general. Moreover, our results provide evidence that conscientiousness has a commitment value in a sexual relationship. Conscientiousness is associated with a lower likelihood of having extradyadic affairs.

Agreeableness is also associated with higher sexual satisfaction. However, our estimations provide no evidence that improved sexual communication is a transmission channel. Quite the contrary, we find evidence of a negative role of agreeableness in sexual communication. Agreeableness is negatively associated with expressing preferences during sex and expressing sexual needs and desires in general. As suggested by our theoretical considerations, there can be two opposing influences. On the one hand, agreeableness may contribute to a more harmonious and empathic style of communication. On the other hand, a stronger desire for harmony and a higher degree of altruism may imply that an agreeable person to some extent sacrifices his or her personal needs. Our empirical results on sexual communication suggest that the latter influence dominates. The interesting point is that an agreeable person nonetheless experiences higher sexual satisfaction. This may be explained by a higher degree of humility implying that an agreeable person gains sexual satisfaction even if he or she sacrifices some of his or her needs. Furthermore, our estimations show that agreeableness is associated with a lower likelihood of having extradyadic affairs. This suggests that agreeableness has a commitment value.

Extraversion is associated with both higher sexual satisfaction and higher frequency of sex. Moreover, it is a positive determinant of being a good sex partner and fulfilling the partner’s sexual needs and desires. Thus, extraversion appears to contribute to a mutually beneficial sex life of the person and the partner. Our results suggest that improved sexual communication is one transmission channel. Extraversion is positively associated with expressing preferences during sex and the ability of expressing sexual needs and desires in general. However, extraversion is also associated with a higher likelihood of having extradyadic affairs. Thus, while a person’s extraversion contributes to a mutually beneficial sex life of the couple, at the same time, it appears to entail more severe commitment problems. The positive link between extraversion and extradyadic affairs also indicates that a more extroverted person has better outside options increasing his or her bargaining power within the sexual relationship. A stronger bargaining power enables a more extroverted person to get through his or her preferred sexual practices. Altogether, our results conform to the notion that a person’s extraversion increases both the joint surplus generated by a couple’s sexual relationship and the person’s share in this surplus.

We also find evidence that openness to experience is positively associated with sexual satisfaction and frequency of intercourse. Furthermore, our estimations provide evidence that openness to experience is a positive determinant of being a good sex partner and fulfilling the partner’s sexual needs and desires. This suggests that an open person is more able to take into account the partner’s sexual preferences. Our results also show that openness to experience contributes to improved sexual communication. It is positively associated with expressing preferences during sex and the ability of expressing sexual needs and desires in general. This indicates that a person who is more open to the partner’s sexual preferences has better opportunities to communicate his or her preferences to the partner. In contrast to extraversion, we find no evidence that openness to experience is associated with extradyadic affairs. Thus, our analysis provides no evidence that openness to experience has an influence on commitment problems or the person’s outside options.

Pictorial representations (like company logos, emojis, photos) are very popular nowadays; we show that people are perceived as less powerful when using pictures vs. words

Medium is a powerful message: Pictures signal less power than words. Elinor Amit, Shai Danziger, Pamela K. Smith. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 169, March 2022, 104132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2022.104132

Highlights

• Pictorial representations are very popular nowadays.

• We show that people are perceived as less powerful when using pictures vs. words.

• Desire for social proximity mediates the effect of medium on perceived power.

• We show people can strategically use medium to signal power.

• The effect of medium on perceived power matters in organizational contexts.

Abstract: This research shows people are perceived as less powerful when they use pictures versus words. This effect was found across picture types (company logos, emojis, and photographs) and use contexts (clothing prints, written messages, and Zoom profiles). Mediation analysis and a mediation-by-moderation design show this happens because picture-use signals a greater desire for social proximity (versus distance) than word-use, and a desire for social proximity is associated with lower power. Finally, we find that people strategically use words (pictures) when aiming to signal more (less) power. We refute alternative explanations including differences in the content of pictures and words, the medium’s perceived appropriateness, the context’s formality, and the target’s age and gender. Our research shows pictures and words are not interchangeable means of representation. Rather, they signal distinct social values with reputational consequences.

Keywords: MediumPicturesWordsZoomEmojisLogosPowerPsychological distance

Maoist China: During the embryonic stage of communist centralization, the productivity of manufacturing sectors more than doubled; this growth was largely obtained by the exploitation from agriculture and low compensation for workers

Chi, Shawn, Rob Peter to Pay Paul: The Maoist Growth of a Socialist Economy (January 1, 2022). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4006757

Abstract: This paper explains the stylized facts during China's collectivization movement. Despite the spectacular organization of communism, few studies, to my knowledge, have systematically assessed its uncanny productivity effects. I examine the inter-industrial difference of productivity growth and compare its outcome to a decentralized capitalist economy. During the embryonic stage of communist centralization, the productivity of manufacturing sectors more than doubled. However, this manufacturing growth is largely obtained by the exploitation from agriculture and low compensation for workers.

Keywords: socialistic economy, industrialization, productivity, exploitation

JEL Classification: D24, N15, O14, P21, P32

Cats understand human pointing gestures. My view: When cats ignore us or do what they like even against our protests/commands, they know what they are doing.

Assessing cats' (Felis catus) sensitivity to human pointing gestures. Margaret Maeses, Claudia A.F. Wascher. bioRxiv, Mar 13 2022. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.03.12.484069

Abstract: A wide range of non-human animal species have been shown to be able to respond to human referential signals, such as pointing gestures. The aim of the present study was to replicate previous findings showing cats to be sensitive to human pointing cues (Miklósi et al. 2005). In our study, we presented two types of human pointing gestures - momentary direct pointing and momentary cross-body pointing. We tested nine rescue cats in a two-way object choice task. On a group level, the success rate of cats was 74.4 percentage. Cats performed significantly above chance level in both the direct pointing and cross-body pointing condition. Trial number, rewarded side and type of gesture did not significantly affect the cats' performance in the experiment. On an individual level, 5 out of 7 cats who completed 20 trials, performed significantly above chance level. Two cats only completed 10 trials. One of them succeeded in 8, the other in 6 of these. The results of our study replicate previous findings of cats being responsive to human direct pointing cues and add additional knowledge about their ability to follow cross-body pointing cues. Our results highlight a domestic species, socialised in a group setting, to possess heterospecific communication skills, however we have to consider parsimonious explanations, such as local and stimulus enhancement.

Greater political knowledge is associated with greater intensity of emotions against opponents

The more you know, the less you like: A comparative study of how news and political conversation shape political knowledge and affective polarization. Jiyoun Suk et al. Communication and the Public, December 28, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/20570473211063237

Abstract: The contemporary communication ecology contributes to affective polarization by presenting us with extreme exemplars of disliked groups. News exposure that is associated with political discussion networks is related to greater political knowledge, yet unlike previous eras where political knowledge and tolerance went hand in hand, this is no longer the case. We employ a comparative design to examine this idea among two democracies with differing levels of journalistic professionalism and political system: Mexico and the United States. Results show that greater political knowledge is associated with affective polarization, especially for the United States. Furthermore, there was a significant indirect path between media use and affective polarization, mediated through homogeneous political talk and political knowledge, but not in Mexico.

Keywords: Affective polarization, comparative analysis, political conversation, political knowledge

Our findings suggest that raters cannot reliably detect women's ovulatory timing from their scent attractiveness

Does scent attractiveness reveal women's ovulatory timing? Evidence from signal detection analyses and endocrine predictors of odour attractiveness. Mei Mei, Rachel L. Grillot, Craig K. Abbey, Melissa Emery Thompson and James R. Roney. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. March 9 2022. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.0026

Abstract: Odour cues associated with shifts in ovarian hormones indicate ovulatory timing in females of many nonhuman species. Although prior evidence supports women's body odours smelling more attractive on days when conception is possible, that research has left ambiguous how diagnostic of ovulatory timing odour cues are, as well as whether shifts in odour attractiveness are correlated with shifts in ovarian hormones. Here, 46 women each provided six overnight scent and corresponding day saliva samples spaced five days apart, and completed luteinizing hormone tests to determine ovulatory timing. Scent samples collected near ovulation were rated more attractive, on average, relative to samples from the same women collected on other days. Importantly, however, signal detection analyses showed that rater discrimination of fertile window timing from odour attractiveness ratings was very poor. Within-women shifts in salivary oestradiol and progesterone were not significantly associated with within-women shifts in odour attractiveness. Between-women, mean oestradiol was positively associated with mean odour attractiveness. Our findings suggest that raters cannot reliably detect women's ovulatory timing from their scent attractiveness. The between-women effect of oestradiol raises the possibility that women's scents provide information about overall cycle fecundity, though further research is necessary to rigorously investigate this possibility.

Ways to Greater Happiness: Policy strategies could be investing in happiness research, support of vulnerable people & promoting voluntary work and supporting non-profits; individual strategies could be investing in social networks, doing meaningful things & caring for one’s health

Ways to Greater Happiness: A Delphi Study. Dan Buettner, Toben Nelson & Ruut Veenhoven. Journal of Happiness Studies volume 21, pages 2789–2806. Feb 5 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-019-00199-3

Abstract: In the first round of this Delphi study 14 experts suggested strategies for improving life-satisfaction. In a second round, experts rated these strategies for (a) effectiveness, (b) feasibility and (c) cost-effectiveness. They considered 56 strategies policy makers can use to raise average happiness in a nation and 68 ways in which individuals can raise their own happiness. Experts were informed about the average ratings made by the panel and about the arguments advanced. Then, in a third round, experts made their final judgments. Summed ratings for average effectiveness and feasibility of the strategies ranged between 8.4 and 4.9 on scale 2–10, which means that most of the recommendations were deemed suitable. Agreement was slightly higher on policy strategies than on individual ways to greater happiness. Policy strategies deemed the most effective and feasible are: (1) investing in happiness research, (2) support of vulnerable people and (3) improving the social climate, in particular by promoting voluntary work and supporting non-profits. Individual strategies deemed most effective are: (a) investing in social networks, (b) doing meaningful things and (c) caring for one’s health.

Discussion

Above, we summarized the experts’ responses, focusing on strategies deemed both effective and feasible. Let us now take a helicopter view of the results. Below, we will first consider the differences between the view taken by experts and prevailing public opinion on ways to greater happiness. We then dwell on the difference in views among experts; we set out to establish consensus but find much disagreement. Next, we consider possible ideological bias in the expert ratings; could their reading of facts be influenced by their political preferences? Lastly, we propose an agenda for further synthetic research on ways to greater happiness.

Differences with Common Views on Ways to Greater Happiness

The results of this study will not surprise most of our colleague researchers, since they reflect the current state of the art. Still, some may have expected greater consensus than appears from the ratings. There will be more news for lay people, since many of the recommendations made by the experts are absent in public opinion polls on perceived sources of happiness.

Discrepancy in Expert-Lay View on Ways to Raise Happiness in the Nation

Studies on perceived sources of happiness in the general public are listed in the Bibliography of Happiness (Veenhoven 2017c), in the subject section ‘Views on happiness in public opinion’.

We acknowledged this literature in the comments below.

Expert’s views fit common sense with respect to (a) reducing unemployment, (b) creating a supportive social climate and (c) providing minimum income security, (d) free health care and free education and (e) investing in clean air.

A surprise may be in the high rating of (f) good governance, the functioning of bureaucracy in particular, though corruption figures in some polls as a source of unhappiness. Lay people may not expect that experts rate (f) more happiness research highest, as they will think that experts know everything already.

Things mentioned by the experts, that may not be expected by the public are; (g) increased taxes, (h) prioritize mental health care and (i) bringing life skills into schools.

Lay-people may be surprised to see that experts disagree so much in their effectiveness ratings of (j) improving work conditions, (k) reducing unemployment and (l) prioritize preventive healthcare, in particular (m) healthy living.

Discrepancy in Expert-Lay Views on Ways to Greater Happiness for One-Self

Studies on perceived sources of one’s own happiness i are listed in the Bibliography of Happiness (Veenhoven 2017c), in the subject section ‘Views on one’s own happiness’. What are the similarities and differences with the expert’s recommendations?

The expert recommendations fit public opinion with respect to importance of (a) social bonds, family in particular, (b) an active life-style and (c) a green home environment. Expert’s ratings also fit lay-people’s majority view that (c) building wealth is not required for a happy life.

Expert’s ratings also fit common-sense view that no greater happiness is to be expected from following trendy alternative life-style advice, such as (d) eliminate screens, (e) create a flow-room in your house or (f) become a vegan. Likewise, lay-people may be equally skeptical about the effectiveness of psychological training as most of the experts are.

The expert’s opinion that (g) children do not add to happiness, differs from the dominant view in public opinion, though this counter-intuitive finding has received much attention in the media. There is no strong public opinion on the effect on happiness of (h) self-employment, but lay-people will be surprised to see that experts differ so much on this issue.

Why Not More Agreement?

The prime aim of this study was to assess scientific consensus on ways to greater happiness. We found considerable agreement among our experts, but also much disagreement, as can be seen from the many red colored cells in Tables 2 and 3. Why is there so much disagreement among experts?

One reason is in the maturity of this research field. Happiness research is new, taking off in the 1990s, and many issues have not yet had sufficient research for the answers to become crystallized. This is why reviewers disagree so often (cf. Sect. 1) and why, for getting an overview, we resorted to the Delphi method.

Another reason may be found in disciplinary differences in our panel of experts, in particular between economists and psychologists, each drawing on a somewhat different research literature. The divergence in effectiveness ratings for life-coaching and psychological exercises may results from this.

One more reason lies in the questions we presented the experts. We asked them for ways to greater happiness that apply for all countries and all individuals, that is, one-size-fits-all recommendations. We did so, because we wanted to grasp consensus about universal conditions. Yet, in reality, conditions for happiness differ considerably between and within countries.

Leftish Bias?

Some of the strategies endorsed by the experts fit a left wing socialist-political agenda, such as (a) free health care and free education, (b) minimum income security, (c) increased taxes and (d) favor economic stability over growth. Yet experts do not cherish all leftish ideas, given their low ratings for (e) reduction of income inequality and (f) counter-balancing global capitalism. In their rating of individual strategies, the experts also do not endorse less work or lavish spending. Note that experts were asked to judge ways to greater happiness based on their scientific knowledge, not to present their ideological preferences.

Future Research

This study reflects the views of leading experts on happiness at this moment. Since much progress is made in this research field, it would be interesting to repeat this study every 10 years.

A possible addition can be, to run parallel studies among policy-makers, practitioners in the field of life-coaching and the public. This would provide us a better view on the difference between current beliefs about ways to greater happiness and established facts on that matter.

World-wide Evidence for Gender Difference in Sociality: approx 50% more female-female than male-male pairs are observed in public spaces globally

World-wide Evidence for Gender Difference in Sociality. Tamas David-Barrett. arXiv, Mar 6 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.02964

One of the most contested questions about human behaviour is whether there are inherent sex or gender differences in the formation and maintenance of social bonds. On one hand, female and male brains are structurally almost identical, and while there are sex differences in the endocrine system, these are small, while much of gendered identity and behaviour is learned. On the other hand, sex differences in some aspects of social behaviour have deep evolutionary roots, and are widely present in non-human animals. This observational study recorded the frequency of same-aged, adult human groups appearing in public spaces through 2636 hours, recording group formation by 1.2mn people via 170 research assistants in 46 countries across the world. The results show (a) a significant sex-gender difference in same-sex-same-age frequency, in that ~50% more female-female than male-male pairs are observed in public spaces globally, and (b) that despite regional variation, the patterns holds up in every global region. This is the first study of sex-gender difference in dyadic social behaviour across the world on this scale, and the first global study that uses direct rather than internet-based observations.

People are usually off the mark when it comes to assessing how much and in what direction public attitudes toward contentious issues have changed

Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change. Adam M. Mastroianni and Jason Dana. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 7, 2022 | 119 (11) e2107260119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2107260119

Significance: People change when they think others are changing, but people misperceive others’ changes. These misperceptions may bedevil people’s efforts to understand and change their social worlds, distort the democratic process, and turn imaginary trends into real ones. For example, participants believed that Americans increasingly want to limit immigration, which they said justifies tighter borders. However, participants also said that limiting immigration would not be right if attitudes had shifted against it––which is what actually occurred. Our findings suggest that the national discourse around contentious social issues, policies resulting from that discourse, and perhaps the opinions that drive discourse in the first place would be very different if people better understood how attitudes have and have not changed.

Abstract: America is embroiled in cultural wars over abortion, immigration, gun control, climate change, religion, race, gender, and everything in between. Do people know how much attitudes have shifted on these contentious issues, or even which side is winning? Two preregistered studies suggest they do not. In Study 1, we asked a nationally representative sample of participants to estimate how 51 different attitudes had changed over time and compared their estimates to actual polling data. Participants overestimated the amount of change on 29 attitudes (57%), underestimated change on 10 attitudes (20%), estimated change in the wrong direction on 10 attitudes (20%), and estimated change correctly on only two attitudes (4%). In most cases, participants did not know whether an attitude had grown to a majority or shrunk to a minority. These misperceptions had little to do with participants’ demographics or ideologies and seemed instead to arise from a stereotype that the present is far more liberal than the past. Indeed, in Study 2, participants overestimated the liberal shift on most attitudes, believing that the liberal side had gained ground that it had in fact lost (e.g., gun control), or already held (e.g., climate change), or never held (e.g., religion). In three additional preregistered studies, we found that these misperceptions could justify policies that would otherwise seem objectionable. Overall, our findings suggest that widely shared stereotypes of the past lead people to misperceive attitude change, and these misperceptions can lend legitimacy to policies that people may not actually prefer.

Women were more likely than men to believe in or fear all nonmaterial or spiritual supernatural phenomena, as well as Atlantis

Supernatural Sociology: Americans’ Beliefs by Race/Ethnicity, Gender, and Education. Tony Silva, Ashley Woody. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, March 10, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231221084775

Abstract: The authors analyze the 2020–2021 Chapman University Survey of American Fears (n = 1,035), the most recent nationally representative survey to examine fears of and beliefs about supernatural and paranormal phenomena, including ghosts, hauntings, zombies, psychics, telekinesis, Bigfoot or Sasquatch, Atlantis, and extraterrestrial visitation. This research examines how supernatural beliefs vary by race/ethnicity, gender, and education after adjustment for other demographic characteristics and religiosity. There were five gender differences, such that women were more likely than men to believe in or fear all nonmaterial or spiritual supernatural phenomena, as well as Atlantis. People with a bachelor’s degree or higher were less likely to believe in extraterrestrial visitation, hauntings, Bigfoot or Sasquatch, and Atlantis. There were also six beliefs and fears for which racial/ethnic differences emerged. The results highlight how gender, education, and race/ethnicity are strongly related to complex belief systems, including supernatural phenomena.

Keywords: supernatural, paranormal, gender, race, education, ghost, haunting, Bigfoot, Sasquatch, extraterrestrial, psychic, telekinesis, Atlantis

Discussion

We used nationally representative data collected in 2021 to examine how fears of and beliefs about supernatural phenomena vary by key social axes: race/ethnicity, education, and gender. Our research makes several key contributions to the literature. First, we used the most recent data available to examine the relationship between supernatural phenomena and social axes. Second, this study contributes to the large body of research showing that social axes are strongly related to attitudes and religiosity (e.g., Schnabel 2018, 2020). Third, we analyzed several supernatural beliefs individually, rather than combining them into an index, to detect patterns of significance or lack of significance on the basis of particular beliefs or types of beliefs. Empirically, this study shows that gender, race/ethnicity, and education are strongly related to supernatural beliefs and fears. Theoretically, the results suggest that beliefs about supernatural phenomena are shaped by gendered, racialized, and classed social processes.

It is notable that there are large gender differences in some beliefs but not others. One explanation could be the perceived role of spirituality in supernatural phenomena. Ghosts, hauntings, zombies, and psychics all involve the influence of spiritual forces, and telekinesis similarly involves a nonmaterial energy. In contrast, Bigfoot or Sasquatch and extraterrestrial visitation (for the most part) indicate concrete but unexplained issues such as undiscovered animals and contact with advanced nonhuman species. As Bader et al. (2017) argued, gendered differences in belief reflect how women are more likely to be interested in supernatural phenomena that provide a greater understanding of the world, even if the processes cannot be scientifically documented. In contrast, men may be more interested in phenomena that can be scientifically established with the correct evidence, although we did not find that men were more likely than women to believe in any phenomena.

It is unclear why women had a higher PP to believe in Atlantis and other advanced ancient civilizations than men, although it is possible that people differently interpreted the question. For instance, some people may have interpreted the question to mean lost but discoverable ancient civilizations. Others may have interpreted “advanced” to mean technological capabilities more sophisticated than today’s. Still others may have considered the purported link between ancient civilizations and metaphysical energy (e.g., some people believe that residents of advanced ancient civilizations used crystal energies). Thus, the implications of the finding about advanced ancient civilizations are unclear.

The fact that most configurations of American masculinity are characterized by notions of rationality (Connell 2005) could explain men’s lower probability of belief in supernatural phenomena linked to spiritual and nonmaterial forces (see also Thomson et al. 2020; Ward and King 2020). Indeed, American men are socially rewarded for displaying traits such as detached rationality (Bain 2009) and may be socially sanctioned for relying on intuition and spiritual beliefs. Men are also socialized to demonstrate stoicism. Femininity, in contrast, is often associated with the emotional and spiritual realms.¹⁷ Women are less likely to be sanctioned for using intuition and expressing fear. This pattern could explain women’s higher levels of belief in hauntings and supernatural human abilities (foretelling the future and telekinesis), and to fear ghosts and zombies. Similarly, a 2017 study by the Pew Research Center showed that 20 percent of adult men in the United States believed in astrology, 27 percent believed in reincarnation, 34 percent believed in psychics, and 37 percent believed that “spiritual energy can be located in physical things” (Gecewicz 2018). In contrast, equivalent figures for women were 37 percent, 39 percent, 47 percent, and 46 percent, respectively (Gecewicz 2018). Thus, gendered social expectations likely shape supernatural beliefs.

Education is related to supernatural beliefs in a straightforward way. People with a bachelor’s or more had lower marginal estimates or PPs of belief in extraterrestrial visitation, hauntings, Bigfoot or Sasquatch, and Atlantis. Notably, there were no educational differences for other supernatural beliefs/fears. Although higher levels of education are associated with lower levels of belief in several supernatural phenomena, there are others in which there are no significant educational beliefs. These findings are similar to those of Bader et al. (2017) and unlike those of Rice (2003). It is possible that today, unlike in prior decades, higher levels of education have become associated with disbelief in most supernatural phenomena.

It is notable that several racial/ethnic differences emerged. Asian Americans had higher PPs of belief in Atlantis and fear of zombies than most other groups, and white people had the lowest PP of fearing ghosts than all other groups. Black people had higher levels of belief than white people regarding extraterrestrial visitation and hauntings and higher marginal estimates of belief in supernatural human abilities than both white and Latinx people. Similarly, the Pew research cited above showed that Black and Latinx people had higher levels of belief than white people regarding astrology, reincarnation, psychics, and spiritual energy in physical things (Asian Americans were not analyzed) (Gecewicz 2018).

There are several different possible explanations for these racial/ethnic differences in supernatural beliefs. First, it is possible that trust in science may be related to belief in supernatural phenomena. According to a 2020 Pew survey, 88 percent of white people and 87 percent of Latinx people have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of confidence in scientists, compared with 79 percent of Black people (Asian Americans were not analyzed) (Funk, Kennedy, and Johnson 2020). Thus, trust in science may be one of many factors that shape racialized belief systems.

Second, cultural traditions may also explain racial differences in paranormal beliefs. For instance, Black Americans historically had a tradition of intergenerational oral culture that can be traced back to enslavement (Gorn 1984). Historically, superstitions and stories of ghostly visitations were prominent within African American folklore (Gorn 1984), which may shape the belief systems of some Black Americans today (see also Bellot 2021). Similarly, the idea of ancestral spirits visiting the living is deeply embedded in some racial/ethnic cultural traditions such as Lunar New Year, which is widely observed throughout the East Asian and Southeast Asian American diasporas (Wen 2021). On the eve of the new year, special meals are prepared to honor the spirits of deceased ancestors (Wen 2021). Even outside of prominent holidays, ancestor worship is a daily spiritual practice for groups such as Vietnamese Buddhists (Jellema 2007). Día de los Muertos (Day of the Dead), which has its origins in both European Catholicism and Indigenous traditions, is widely celebrated throughout Mexico and in the Mexican American diaspora to honor the spirits of deceased relatives and friends (Lopez 2021). These cultural traditions may explain why Black, Latinx, and Asian Americans are more likely than white people to believe in certain paranormal phenomena.

It is intriguing that this study revealed numerous racial/ethnic differences in supernatural beliefs, whereas most other studies have not. In contrast, findings for gender and education largely mirrored those of other recent research. Differences in findings regarding racial/ethnic differences in supernatural beliefs may exist for variety of reasons. First is random sampling variation. To confirm these results, more research needs to be done, ideally with larger samples. Research findings are robust when they are confirmed by studies using multiple samples. Replication is particularly important when the sample size of certain subgroups is small, as with Black and Asian Americans in this sample. Thus, results regarding race/ethnicity should be evaluated with caution until further studies are conducted. Second, and relatedly, no prior research about the supernatural included Asian Americans except, possibly, in a combined “other” category. Several of the differences in this study were between Asian Americans and other groups; no prior research could have documented these differences when it did not examine Asian Americans specifically. And third, rapid social changes over the past several years may have shaped belief systems such that group differences emerged or became larger. In addition to the decline in church, synagogue, and mosque membership previously discussed (Jones 2021), the past several years have brought multiple social changes: the coronavirus pandemic, sharp political polarization, and increased attention paid to structural racial inequities, among others. These changes, combined, may have affected belief systems in varied ways depending on racial/ethnic identity. Future research will need to examine this possibility.

It is possible that other factors shape belief in supernatural phenomena. For instance, a recent study showed that lower levels of self-control were associated with a higher level of belief in supernatural phenomena (Mowen, Heitkamp, and Boman forthcoming). Low self-control is defined by one’s tendency to favor short-term gratification while ignoring long-term consequences (Mowen et al. forthcoming). The authors theorized that low self-control may be related to the adoption of paranormal beliefs, which “reflect a decision-making process whereby scientific evidence is cast aside in lieu of an easy explanation for some of life’s greatest mysteries” (p. 12). This study also showed that women were more likely than men to believe in supernatural phenomena, as were people of “other” races compared with white people (comparisons between white and Black people were not statistically significant) (Mowen et al. forthcoming). Although that study was based on a convenience sample of undergraduate students, the results indicate that researchers should include additional measures in surveys to better understand why individuals report supernatural beliefs.

Future research can build on this study. It would be beneficial to collect a larger sample size of Black, Latinx, Asian, Pacific Islander, and Indigenous individuals, which would make it possible to produce more reliable estimates of beliefs by race/ethnicity. Although the results related to race/ethnicity are intriguing, future research with larger samples will need to further investigate this topic, particularly with regard to Black and Asian American respondents, as their sample sizes were small (which resulted in large confidence intervals). Future studies might also deploy explanatory frameworks to identify reasons why there is observed variation in paranormal beliefs by race/ethnicity.

Additionally, the CSAF did not query about sexual identification, even though it is one of the strongest predictors of social attitudes (Grollman 2017; Schnabel 2018) and is strongly related to religiosity (Schnabel 2020), which in turn is related to supernatural beliefs (Bader et al. 2012; Baker and Draper 2010; Baker et al. 2016; Mencken et al. 2009). Some scholars have argued that cryptids have become queer symbols in part because “the identification of cryptids as queer both reclaims and challenges a past in which queerness was considered monstrous” and because cryptids challenge conventional ideas about normativity and natural orders (Hord 2018:2). Others have argued that queerness is less stigmatized in online supernatural communities because supernatural communities are built on embracing the unfamiliar, thus making them more appealing to queer people (Wall 2018). Additionally, queer people may find cryptids intriguing because they are often framed as threats, just as queer people were historically and still are today in many contexts, and because the existence of cryptids, like queer people, is often denied or rendered invisible (Wall 2018). In short, there are a variety of reasons why queer people may be more inclined to believe in supernatural phenomena, and future research should include a measure of sexual identification to capture possible group differences on the basis of sexual identity.

In conclusion, we examined how beliefs about, and fears of, supernatural phenomena—including ghosts, hauntings, zombies, psychics, telekinesis, Bigfoot or Sasquatch, Atlantis, and extraterrestrial visitation—vary by race/ethnicity, gender, and education. Specifically, women are more likely to believe in or fear phenomena that relate to nonmaterial or spiritual matters (ghosts, hauntings, zombies, and supernatural human abilities including psychic powers and telekinesis) rather than material phenomena that could potentially be proved through conventional scientific investigation (Bigfoot or Sasquatch and extraterrestrial visitation), although women were also more likely than men to believe in Atlantis. Education is also strongly related to several supernatural phenomena, such that people with a bachelor’s degree or higher are less likely to believe in certain phenomena than people with less than a bachelor’s degree. Race/ethnicity was also strongly related to supernatural beliefs and fears, although in ways that differed on the basis of the belief or fear. The results underscore how gender, education, and race/ethnicity are strongly related to beliefs, including about supernatural phenomena.

Increasing social media use most likely displaces other media activities, doesn't reduce time on face-to-face interaction

Social media use, social displacement, and well-being. Jeffrey A. Hall, Dong Liu. Current Opinion in Psychology, Mar 11 2022, 101339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101339

Abstract: Social displacement is the proposition that time spent on social media replaces time spent in face-to-face interaction, particularly with close friends and family, thus reducing well-being. There is clear evidence of growing mobile and social media use, and some evidence of a decline in face-to-face communication. This essay concludes, however, there is very little direct or causal evidence of social media time displacing face-to-face time. This essay concludes that increasing social media use most likely displaces other media activities. To explain findings that seem to support social displacement, this essay examines the difference between population-level trends and within-individual behavior, and the difference between within-person and between-person displacement.

Keywords: face-to-face communicationinternetsocial media usesocial displacementTVwell-being

Results largely suggest no association between therapists’ experience and therapy outcome

Germer, S., Weyrich, V., Bräscher, A.-K., Mütze, K., & Witthöft, M. (2022). Does practice really make perfect? A longitudinal analysis of the relationship between therapist experience and therapy outcome: A replication of Goldberg, Rousmaniere, et al. (2016). Journal of Counseling Psychology, Mar 2022. https://doi.org/10.1037/cou0000608

Abstract: Experience is often regarded as a prerequisite of high performance. In the field of psychotherapy, research has yielded inconsistent results regarding the association between experience and therapy outcome. However, this research was mostly conducted cross-sectionally. A longitudinal study from the U.S. recently indicated that psychotherapists’ experience was not associated with therapy outcomes. The present study aimed at replicating Goldberg, Rousmaniere, et al. (2016) study in the German healthcare system. Using routine evaluation data of a large German university psychotherapy outpatient clinic, the effect of N = 241 therapists’ experience on the outcomes of their patients (N = 3,432) was assessed longitudinally using linear and logistic multilevel modeling. Experience was operationalized using the number of days since the first patient of a therapist as well as using the number of patients treated beforehand. Outcome criteria were defined as change in general psychopathology as well as response, remission, and early termination. Several covariates (number of sessions per case, licensure, and main diagnosis) were also examined. Across all operationalizations of experience (time since first patient and number of cases treated) and therapy outcome (change in psychopathology, response, remission, and early termination), results largely suggest no association between therapists’ experience and therapy outcome. Preliminary evidence suggests that therapists need fewer sessions to achieve the same outcomes when they gain more experience. Therapeutic experience seems to be unrelated to patients’ change in psychopathology. This lack of findings is of importance for improving postgraduate training and the quality of psychotherapy in general.