Male witches were mostly accused by males (blood-relatives or not), often in connection to disputes over wealth & status; accusations of women were mainly from kin by marriage (mostly husbands & co-wives)

Same-sex competition and sexual conflict expressed through witchcraft accusations. Sarah Peacey, Olympia L. K. Campbell & Ruth Mace. Scientific Reports volume 12, Article number: 6655, Apr 22 2022. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-10315-8

Abstract: There is significant cross-cultural variation in the sex of individuals most likely to be accused of practising witchcraft. Allegations of witchcraft might be a mechanism for nullifying competitors so resources they would have used become available to others. In this case, who is targeted may result from patterns of competition and conflict (same-sex or male–female) within specific relationships, which are determined by broader socio-ecological factors. Here we examine patterns of sex-specific accusations in historic cases from sub-Saharan Africa (N = 423 accusations). Male ‘witches’ formed the greater part of our sample, and were mostly accused by male blood-relatives and nonrelatives, often in connection to disputes over wealth and status. Accusations of women were mainly from kin by marriage, and particularly from husbands and co-wives. The most common outcomes were that the accused was forced to move, or suffered reputational damage. Our results suggest that competition underlies accusations and relationship patterns may determine who is liable to be accused.

Discussion

The data used here provides evidence that particular relationships may determine sex-specific patterns of witchcraft accusation. Cases where women were targeted frequently came from affinal kin, while those directed at men were often from unrelated individuals and blood relatives. Most previous research on factors that determine the sex of accused ‘witches’ has largely consisted of qualitative studies of a single society or a few societies48, or historical studies that have not tested for correlations49. Our findings, in support of the overarching hypothesis that accusations may be driven by various forms of competition, can be tentatively aligned with evolutionary literature on patterns of intrasexual and kin competition, intersexual conflict and polygamous mating30,31,50.

Men were more often accused than women in our sample, although we did not have a prediction in relation to this. But the finding suggests how overall patterns of competition within relationships may contribute to societal ‘phenotypes’ of witches as male or female. The ethnography of the Ndembele perhaps indicates why women were less frequently targeted in Bantu societies: ‘in a case of witchcraft, the complainant is actuated by caprice, jealousy or pique; and the defendant is a person of wealth or popularity, and is always a man, for the women have neither wealth nor honor worth coveting’51.

Our predictions about how the sex of accused ‘witches’ might be associated with particular relationship categories were supported. The majority of accusations targeting men came from unrelated individuals, which is unsurprising, as inclusive fitness52 would not mitigate the effects of competition between them. Blood relatives were the next most common relationship category directing accusations at men. This aligns with more recent studies indicating that witchcraft fears between family members are significant in parts of Africa, to the extent that they can be construed as ‘the dark side of kinship’53. In evolutionary terms, kin may compete with one another in environments where resources are limited30,31,50 and in societies with patrilineal inheritance related males, and particularly brothers, compete for resources in order to marry31. This aligns with an ethnographic observation that among the Banyoro witchcraft accusations often occurred between brothers over inheritance, but not between brothers and sisters, whose interests did not conflict21. The situations relating to accusations of men were also often connected to the acquisition of wealth and status, such as rivalry over village headmanships32, power struggles between a chief’s counsellors54 or disputes over inheritance55. These connections can be found in more recent contexts such as twentieth century Ghana, where notions of obtaining political power and wealth through occult means involving human sacrifice were pervasive56.

Accusations of women were more likely to come from affines. Husbands were the largest category of affinal kin to accuse women (Supplementary Fig. 2). The higher rate of accusations from husbands to wives than wives to husbands aligns with evolutionary perspectives suggesting male coercion of females is a strategy to maximize male reproductive success39,41. Accusations of wives who were suspected of being unfaithful can be interpreted as a strategy for reducing investment in unrelated offspring35,41. In a case from the Shona a woman gave birth to a stillborn child. This was attributed to an affair before marriage, and was followed by divorce and the repayment of bridewealth to her husband, who commented she was ‘a witch, a woman who had killed her own child’48. Other ethnographic accounts suggest accusations of wives by husbands were an attempt to gain control within the marital relationship55.

A significant number of accusations of women by affinal kin were from co-wives in polygynous marriages, and these were often notably associated with jealousy connected to a husband’s attention and investment32. Evolutionary models predict competition for reproductive resources would occur among co-resident breeding women57, as has been found to occur among the Mosuo of southwest China58. In the patrilocal social systems that are predominant in our sample, women disperse at marriage and are isolated from kin, so conflict may be more extreme30. This is consistent with ethnographic observations reporting that the relationship between co-wives in polygynous marriages was often (although not always) marked by conflict, and liable to produce witchcraft accusations38,59.

There were accusations of women from other categories of their affinal kin (Supplementary Fig. 2). These again may result from competition for a husband’s time and resources between his kin and wife. New wives may be vulnerable in environments where they enter their husband’s families as unrelated strangers, and are potentially expendable, at least before the arrival of offspring. Some accounts of accusations indicate that accusations of wives by in-laws in patrilocal households are common29.

Accusations directed at elderly individuals targeted women more often than men. This may form part of a broader pattern of geronticide: societies close to subsistence-level are documented as sometimes accepting the abandonment or killing of elderly people19,60. In modern Tanzania, ‘witches’ are mostly post-reproductive women, who are more likely to be murdered in periods of income shock19. This is also the case in contemporary Ghana, where accusations are frequently directed at middle-aged or elderly women, whose families may subsequently cease to provide them with financial or material assistance61. In our sample, elderly women may have been targeted more frequently as a result of longer female lifespans: in a polygynous society, men may marry younger women, so wives would be widowed at an earlier age than husbands. Among the Bantu, older men were accused, but some were possibly protected by their status.

Accusers’ payoffs from accusations are not always explicit but they can be inferred. The most common outcome of accusations in our sample was that accused ‘witches’ were exiled from their communities or forced to move from where they were living. This would mean resources and cooperative assistance they would have used became available to their accusers or others nearby. Where the accused acquires a negative reputation, which was the second most common outcome, there may be a subtle removal of benefits, which may be preferred to direct ‘punishment’ as it is less costly62. Accusers’ gains need not be direct, as harming behaviours may reduce the overall pressure of competition in an environment28. 8% of accusations in the sample resulted in the acquisition of either resources or political positions from the accused, or in preventing the accused from acquiring them. Where the accused were penalised in other ways, such performing ceremonies to reconcile with accusers, this is perhaps akin to classic cooperation models involving the punishment of defectors (although the accused may not actually be uncooperative)11, providing accusers with subordinate partners who offer fitness benefits to avoid more serious allegations63. Where an accusation does not ‘stick’, ethnographic accounts sometimes indicate it was reversed through divination or ordeal54. In other cases, for various reasons accusations are short-lived and forgotten about4. Finally, although not tested in this dataset, accusers may gain informal prestige and dominance, an outcome analogous to competitive punishment63.

Not all of the cases in our dataset support the hypothesis that witchcraft accusations are a mechanism for competition. There is a significant proportion where the accusation of a particular individual appears to be incidental, or dependent a on circumstantial association between the ‘witch’ and a negative event. Such accusations are unlikely to provide accusers with a competitive advantage. There are several possible explanations for such cases. They are in line with the hypothesis that witchcraft belief arises from attempts to identify the cause of an impactful misfortune3,4. Cultural evolutionary explanations of witchcraft beliefs suggest that they are a maladaptive attempt to explain misfortune. Although it is inaccurate, belief in witches is maintained through bias and selective inattention to evidence that would otherwise counter it64. Alternatively this could be viewed under the contention that superstitious beliefs (or errors in attributing cause and effect) are broadly adaptive if they occasionally lead individuals to acts which provide them with fitness benefits65.

Although witchcraft accusations may be a mechanism for mitigating the damage to accusers’ reputations in harmful competitive acts, as with any behavioural strategy it is not without risks. Accusers may suffer costs in the form subsequent reputational damage or counter-accusations, as with punishment63, depending on factors such the level of support for an accusation by other members of the community.

One limitation of our dataset is that it contains realized allegations of witchcraft, that cannot be tested against baseline population measures. We could not examine the risk that a particular individual, such as an elderly woman, would be accused. Instead, the analysis shows the odds, given an accusation occurred, that the ‘witch’ was male or female, given certain predictors. For example, if the accused was elderly, there are increased odds they were female rather than male.

A dataset using historic witchcraft cases is almost certainly affected by selection bias. Cases with sensational outcomes are more likely to be reported, and cases that are dismissed or where the accused removes themselves from their accusers are liable to be overlooked19. Most incidents in our sample were reported anecdotally. Obtaining a random sample of witchcraft accusations within a population is challenging, if not impossible1,66. Attempts to systematically collect cases within a given location and timeframe cannot guarantee that all are brought to the attention of researchers19. Comparative studies of this kind usually use all the data that is available and control for confounding effects. Our sensitivity analyses suggest the large number of accusations of men in the dataset probably reflects patterns of accusations in these societies, rather than male-focused bias from ethnographers. There are many accounts of cultures where witches are predominantly male33,34,49. But the accuracy of historic ethnographic accounts cannot be verified, especially in relation to one-off events such as witchcraft accusations, just as it is unclear how much uncertainty there is in the ethnographic record overall67. Ethnographers may not always have noted the characteristics of the individuals involved, or there may be times where they were mistaken in reporting the circumstances surrounding an accusation. There are several explanations for cases where the identities of accusers or purported victims of witchcraft were not reported. Not all cases had identifiable ‘victims’, for example when the accused was thought to have used witchcraft to promote their own success, or ethnographers could not denote the relationship between the accused and their accusers when suspicions of witchcraft were communicated through general gossip. In a small number of cases, ethnographer perspectives on accusations (and possible inability to access further information) are salient, as they may ascribe more importance to one relationship over another in reporting a case, such as a witch’s envy of their victim, or a witch’s argument with an accuser.

However, it is likely that ethnographers were for the most part accurate in documenting variables of interest such as the sex of an accused individual and their relationships with accusers. There is less certainty in relation to the situation connected to an accusation, especially taking into recent research that indicates the prevalence of phenomena such as the misperception of causation68,69. Our attempts to account for such possibilities with sensitivity analyses and meta-data on the production of ethnographies cannot conclusively provide reassurance that bias has not affected results, and so this section of the analysis should be treated with caution and regarded as exploratory. The situations documented in our study do however align with accounts of accusations from more contemporary observers and studies from different geographic locations, suggesting that similar causes of accusations arise convergently in different societies. For example in modern contexts accusations have led to accusers gaining land or property in India6 and cessation of the obligation to provide material and financial assistance to elderly relatives in Ghana61. One advantage of our cross-cultural data being drawn from numerous ethnographies is that it is not reliant on the perspective of one individual, meaning that random perceptual error or individual (as opposed to cultural) bias is more likely to be mitigated in the results than would be the case in the study of a single culture by one ethnographer.

As a further limitation, we were reliant on accessible ethnographic records from the best-documented societies. Although selection bias in favour of better described societies is present in our sample, this should not impact the main aim of this research, which is to understand the determinants of witchcraft accusations being directed at male or female targets.

Overall our findings may indicate allegations of witchcraft stem from diverse forms of competition between individuals. This aligns with evolutionary approaches to competition and conflict. Accusations may provide fitness benefits by allowing individuals to target competitors, but the exact form and direction of competition is determined by aspects of socio-ecology. This in turn influences which sex is most likely to be accused and the overall portrayal of witches in a society. Accusations may be more likely to occur in some relationships rather than others, when there is a gain for the accuser, as in disputes over inheritance and property, or where another individual may pose a threat, or by simply reducing numbers of competitors. The success of witchcraft accusations in removing competitors and their flexibility as an adaptive strategy may explain their widespread distribution.

It is increasingly recognized that sex chromosomes are not only the battlegrounds between sexes but also the Great Walls fencing off introgression between diverging lineages

Neo-sex chromosome evolution shapes sex-dependent asymmetrical introgression barrier. Silu Wang et al. xxx, May 5, 2022 | 119 (19) e2119382119 | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2119382119

Significance: It is increasingly recognized that sex chromosomes are not only the battlegrounds between sexes but also the Great Walls fencing off introgression between diverging lineages. Here we dissect the multifaceted roles of sex chromosomes using experimental evolution, whole-genome resequencing, and theoretical modeling, taking advantage of hybrid populations between a Drosophila sister species pair in the early stage of speciation that have different sex chromosome systems. Our work sheds light onto the complex roles of neo-sex chromosome evolution in creating a sex-dependent asymmetrical introgression barrier at a species boundary, and we show how diverse population genetic forces act in concert to explain observed patterns of introgression across the genome.

Abstract: Sex chromosomes play a special role in the evolution of reproductive barriers between species. Here we describe conflicting roles of nascent sex chromosomes on patterns of introgression in an experimental hybrid swarm. Drosophila nasuta and Drosophila albomicans are recently diverged, fully fertile sister species that have different sex chromosome systems. The fusion between an autosome (Muller CD) with the ancestral X and Y gave rise to neo-sex chromosomes in D. albomicans, while Muller CD remains unfused in D. nasuta. We found that a large block containing overlapping inversions on the neo-sex chromosome stood out as the strongest barrier to introgression. Intriguingly, the neo-sex chromosome introgression barrier is asymmetrical and sex-dependent. Female hybrids showed significant D. albomicans–biased introgression on Muller CD (neo-X excess), while males showed heterosis with excessive (neo-X, D. nasuta Muller CD) genotypes. We used a population genetic model to dissect the interplay of sex chromosome drive, heterospecific pairing incompatibility between the neo-sex chromosomes and unfused Muller CD, neo-Y disadvantage, and neo-X advantage in generating the observed sex chromosome genotypes in females and males. We show that moderate neo-Y disadvantage and D. albomicans specific meiotic drive are required to observe female-specific D. albomicans–biased introgression in this system, together with pairing incompatibility and neo-X advantage. In conclusion, this hybrid swarm between a young species pair sheds light onto the multifaceted roles of neo-sex chromosomes in a sex-dependent asymmetrical introgression barrier at a species boundary.

Current study supports previous findings showing that people living in slums tend to report higher levels of life satisfaction than one might expect; factors other than objective poverty make life more, or less, satisfying

Life Satisfaction among the Poorest of the Poor: A Study in Urban Slum Communities in India. Esther Sulkers & Jasmijn Loos. Psychological Studies, May 4 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12646-022-00657-8

Abstract: This study investigates the level and predictors of life satisfaction in people living in slums in Kolkata, India. Participants of six slum settlements (n = 164; 91% female) were interviewed and data on age, gender, poverty indicators and life satisfaction were collected. The results showed that the level of global life satisfaction in this sample of slum residents did not significantly differ from that of a representative sample of another large Indian city. In terms of life-domain satisfaction, the slum residents were most satisfied with their social relationships and least satisfied with their financial situation. Global life satisfaction was predicted by age, income and non-monetary poverty indicators (deprivation in terms of health, education and living standards) (R2 15.4%). The current study supports previous findings showing that people living in slums tend to report higher levels of life satisfaction than one might expect given the deprivation of objective circumstances of their lives. Furthermore, the results suggest that factors other than objective poverty make life more, or less, satisfying. The findings are discussed in terms of theory about psychological adaptation to poverty.

Discussion

This study investigated the level and predictors of life satisfaction of people living in slums in Kolkata, India. In line with previous research, it was found that slum residents were less dissatisfied with their lives than one would have held given the dire living conditions of these people. For the prediction of global life satisfaction, income (monetary poverty) was complemented with the Multidimensional Poverty Index (non-monetary poverty) and fear of eviction. The results showed that not only income but also non-monetary indices such as education, living standards and fear of eviction are important correlates of life satisfaction of people living in slums.

The level of global life satisfaction observed in this study was comparable to those measured in a representative sample from Delhi, another large metropole in India. Although counterintuitive, our finding of a relatively high level of life satisfaction in a marginalized group is not new. For example, in a study among the poorest of the poor in South Africa, it was found that landfill waste pickers scored higher on life satisfaction than the national average (Blaauw et al., 2020). The same study found that there was a significant group of waste pickers who were very satisfied with their lives. Our findings also resemble those reported by Biswas-Diener and Diener (2001) and Cox (2012) who found slightly positive global life satisfaction in urban slum residents and dump dwellers in Kolkata, India and Managua, Nicaragua, respectively.

With regard to domain satisfaction, the slum residents were fairly satisfied with three of the five life domains assessed in this study i.e., their social relationships and health (physical and psychological). They were least satisfied with their financial situation and physical environment. Similar findings have been reported in previous studies addressing domain satisfaction in poor populations (Biswas-Diener & Diener, 2001; Cox, 2012; Sharma et al., 2019). Various scholars have emphasized the importance of social ties for well-being (Diener & Seligman, 2004), especially in poor populations (Boswell & Stack, 1975; Domínguez & Watkins, 2003; Henly, 2007). Social connectedness has been associated with access to various forms of social support and cognitive processes associated with subjective well-being such as life satisfaction, enhanced self-esteem, self-worth, purpose and meaning in life (Thoits, 2011). Social ties may serve as a private safety net, a poor family can fall back on in times of need (Edin & Lein, 1997).

In terms of prediction, higher levels of life satisfaction were related to age, income and deprivation. Due to shared variance with the MPI, fear of eviction did not explain unique variance in life satisfaction. Specifically, younger residents and those with higher incomes and lower scores on the MPI reported higher levels of global life satisfaction. Our findings regarding the relationship between age and global life satisfaction related to those reported by (Cox, 2012) who examined age as a predictor of life satisfaction in poor populations in Nicaragua and data from the Gallup World Poll (Fortin et al., 2015). Our results are in line with previous work which emphasized the role of income in life satisfaction (Whitaker & Moss, 1976). Moreover, the income-life satisfaction relationship in this study was comparable to the average r effect size of 0.28 computed for low-income samples in developing countries in Howell and Howell’s (2008) meta-analysis. The current study also confirms the results of research reporting a negative relationship between the MPI and life satisfaction in people living in the poorest districts of Peru (Mateu et al., 2020) and India (Strotmann & Volkert, 2018).

Overall, data from several studies suggest that slum residents in developing countries, such as India, are more satisfied with their lives than one would expect based on their living conditions. This contradicts the common-sense belief that poor people are unhappy by definition. Such judgment is, however, an illustration of the “focusing illusion” (Schkade & Kahneman, 1998) which has received a lot of attention in the literature on life satisfaction. The “focusing illusion” takes place when individuals exaggerate the importance of a single factor (e.g., living circumstances or material wealth) on well-being. Going beyond the stereotype that poverty equates unhappiness may provide a different picture. Research suggests that people living in poverty may consider different aspects of life important for their well-being than people from a more affluent background. For example, extremely poor Nicaraguan garbage dump dwellers in the study by (Vásquez-Vera et al., 2017) reported that their happiness did not emerge from job status or income, but rather from meaningful interactions and relationships with others.

Moreover, the explanatory power of objective poverty (as measured by income and the MPI) for life satisfaction was limited. This is in line with a vast array of research showing that objective life conditions do explain only a minor part of inter-individual differences in life satisfaction (Argyle, 2013; Diener & Biswas-Diener, 2002). How hardship is perceived on the other hand, may be of much bigger importance for the appraisal of one's life (Veenhoven, 2005). Poverty is a subjective feeling, which means that people defined as poor by objective standards do not necessarily have to feel poor. Indeed, results from a recent meta-analysis (Tan et al., 2020) indicate that life satisfaction has a stronger link to subjective socio-economic status than objectively measured income or education.

Our findings could be interpreted in the light of the human capacity to adapt to environmental demands. Adaptability is a self-regulatory resource which allows individuals to adjust to good and bad phenomena by altering their standards, thoughts, behaviors and emotions to the requirements of situations at hand. Adaptability can help prevent or mitigate the negative impact of challenge and adversity on well-being (Carver & Scheier, 2001). Following the multiple discrepancies theory (Michalos, 1985), life satisfaction relates to the discrepancy between what one has and what one wants (desire discrepancy) and what relevant others have (social comparison discrepancy) (Brown et al., 2009). Perceived negative discrepancies between one’s standards and one’s actual situation have a negative impact on life satisfaction. In the context of slums, perceived discrepancies between what one has (slum dwelling) and what one wants (a decent house), or what one has (no income) and what relevant others have (improvement in daily wage) could be a source of dissatisfaction with life. Effects of perceived negative discrepancies can be counterbalanced, however, by self-regulatory discrepancy reducing processes such as choosing a relevant reference group for social comparison and lowering aspirations (Carver & Scheier, 2001).

Regarding social comparison, it has been found that people have a natural tendency to compare themselves with others (Festinger, 1954), in particular with relevant reference groups such as people with a similar ethnicity, background or occupation (Khaptsova & Schwartz, 2016). In the case of low status or minority groups, several studies found that exposure to a successful referent from a low-status group is more pleasant and meaningful than exposure to a referent from a high-status group (Blanton et al., 2000; Leach & Smith, 2006; Mussweiler et al., 2000). This highlights the value of identifying local champions (e.g., former classmates who have excelled in school or sports) to serve as role models for young people living in low resource settings (Kearney & Levine, 2020).

Lowering aspirations is another discrepancy reducing mechanism. This has been observed in deprived neighborhoods including two Kenyan urban slums (Kabiru et al., 2013) where the constraints of the environment had a leveling effect on young people’s occupational and educational aspirations. Similar findings have been reported for youth in disadvantaged neighborhoods in the US and Scotland (Furlong et al., 1996; Stewart et al., 2007). In the case of Kolkata, it is possible that slum residents compare themselves mostly to people within their community and set their aspirations and goals accordingly. Indeed, research has found that expectations of life and oneself are influenced by one’s relative position and social norms within one’s community (Knight et al., 2009). Both social comparison and lowering aspirations are self-protective strategies that may help to ensure subjective well-being in situations in which the remediation of disadvantage is beyond the scope of personal control (Blanton et al., 2000; Leach & Smith, 2006; Mussweiler et al., 2000). Unfortunately, such strategies may also lead to aspiration traps where people under-aspire in occupational and educational goals, thereby contributing to the intergenerational transmission of poverty (Flechtner, 2014).

This study is one of the few examining life satisfaction in people living in a very low resource setting such as an urban slum in India. Other strengths are the relatively large sample size and the inclusion of non-monetary indicators of objective poverty as predictors of life satisfaction. The use of non-monetary poverty indices such as the MPI in life satisfaction research is relatively new. This approach is in line with new perspectives on measuring the material situation (combining income with a direct measure such as a deprivation index) (Christoph, 2010). Our results (showing an incremental contribution by the MPI) suggest the added value of combining monetary- (income) and non-monetary measures (the MPI) when analyzing the relationship between the material situation and life satisfaction.

Nevertheless, some limitations merit attention. First of all, this study only included objective measures of poverty. The addition of subjective measures of poverty (the individual’s perception of his/her financial and material situation) could have offered a more complete picture of the poverty-life satisfaction relationship. Secondly, the cross-sectional design of this study failed to establish causality. Thirdly, because the interviews were conducted in person and in the participants’ homes, which gave the possibility onlookers or family members meandering in earshot of the survey being asked, the research design could have been prone to social desirability bias (Tourangeau et al., 2000). Finally, the fact that the sample was predominantly female was most likely caused by the fact that interviews were conducted during the day when women were more typically at home. This may limit the generalization of the results. However, a recent meta-analysis of 281 samples (Batz-Barbarich et al., 2018) did not show significant gender differences in life satisfaction. In addition, the study of Biswas-Diener and Diener (2001) which was conducted in a comparable sample in Kolkata showed no significant differences in life satisfaction between men and women. This gives us no reason to believe that the unequal sample sizes in gender influence outcomes in life satisfaction in the current study.

The results of the present study highlight the need for further research. A mixed methods design adding qualitative approaches to the assessment of life satisfaction could illuminate a more holistic and contextual understanding of slum residents’ perceptions and experiences in daily life (Camfield et al., 2009). Secondly, in addition to measures of objective poverty, further research should also include subjective indices of poverty as this accounts for a better prediction of life satisfaction compared to objective poverty measures (Tan et al., 2020). Lastly, it would be valuable to learn more in-depth about psychological processes underlying life satisfaction of people living in slums such as social comparison and aspirations.

In terms of clinical practice, practical assistance such as slum upgrading should be complemented with efforts to improve the life satisfaction of slum residents. Research highlights the benefits of a positive mindset including a less pronounced stress response (Smyth et al., 2017), better role functioning (Moskowitz et al., 2012) and more efficient decision making (Isen, 2000). This has been explained by research showing that a positive mental state helps building coping resources by broadening the individual’s attention and action repertoire (Fredrickson, 2004). Other research has shown that the presence of a positive mindset buffers against the negative psychological impact of adversity (Suldo & Huebner, 2004; Veenhoven, 2008). Psychological interventions aimed at improving the mental health of people living in slums should thus not exclusively focus on the reduction in problems but also on the enhancement of positive mental states. The few studies that have examined the effect of individual and group-based positive psychology interventions in disadvantaged populations in developing countries show promising results, including a large increase in life satisfaction, positive affect, positive thoughts, generalized self-efficacy and reductions in self-reported symptoms of depression and negative affect (Ghosal et al., 2013; Sundar et al., 2016). Efforts to improve the life satisfaction of the slum residents may thus be worthwhile to consider, as it may help them deal with the harsh reality of life.

Social desirability bias leads some unvaccinated individuals to claim they are vaccinated; conventional survey studies thus likely overestimate vaccination coverage because of misreporting

Overestimation of COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage in Population Surveys Due to Social Desirability Bias: Results of an Experimental Methods Study in Germany. Felix Wolter et al. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, May 4, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231221094749

Abstract: In Germany, studies have shown that official coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination coverage estimated using data collected directly from vaccination centers, hospitals, and physicians is lower than that calculated using surveys of the general population. Public debate has since centered on whether the official statistics are failing to capture the actual vaccination coverage. The authors argue that the topic of one’s COVID-19 vaccination status is sensitive in times of a pandemic and that estimates based on surveys are biased by social desirability. The authors investigate this conjecture using an experimental method called the item count technique, which provides respondents with the opportunity to answer in an anonymous setting. Estimates obtained using the item count technique are compared with those obtained using the conventional method of asking directly. Results show that social desirability bias leads some unvaccinated individuals to claim they are vaccinated. Conventional survey studies thus likely overestimate vaccination coverage because of misreporting by survey respondents.

Keywords: COVID-19, vaccine coverage, sensitive topics, social desirability, item count technique

Discussion

Different methods tend to produce different results. The fact that COVID-19 vaccination coverage estimates differ depending on the method of data collection should come as no surprise to those in the scientific community. But such discrepancies are troublesome not only because they make it more difficult to develop prognoses and plan policy but also because they can undercut trust in governments and institutions, which is already at a premium in many regions in the ongoing pandemic.⁸

Our analysis of the use of survey data in estimating vaccine coverage underlines those difficulties: although surveys may be useful in the context of many other types of vaccines, we argue that the topic of COVID-19 vaccination in late 2021 is too sensitive to rely solely on survey data for coverage rates. Although it cannot be ruled out that official statistics based on reporting by hospitals and physicians are not also biased (perhaps because of incomplete or erroneous reporting), we showed in this investigation that COVID-19 vaccination coverage on the basis of survey data is likely biased upward by social desirability. Providing individuals with an anonymous way to report their unvaccinated status resulted in an estimated vaccination coverage that was significantly lower than the one based on the conventional method of DQ.

However, there are some important limitations to note. First, this article is written within the context of Germany in the fall of 2021. The local situation may change in the future, and it may be that the topic of COVID-19 vaccination is not as sensitive in other parts of the world. In some countries, vaccination coverage is extremely high. For example, in Portugal and Singapore, nearly 90 percent of adults are fully vaccinated as of November 2021. This means that in those countries, the question of vaccine status is likely much less sensitive. After all, as Tourangeau and Yan (2007:860) noted, “a question about voting is not sensitive for a respondent who voted,” so a question about one’s vaccination status is likely not sensitive for someone who is vaccinated.

Another limitation of the study is that we cannot compare our survey estimates with the survey estimates of the RKI or any other institute, because our survey was a nonprobability sample of a particular group of Internet users. However, the randomized experimental design means that we can indeed compare estimates between groups (DQ and ICT) within the study. This also entails that although we have an unbiased estimate of the sample treatment effect (with high internal validity resulting from a strict experimental setup), we have no guarantee that the population treatment effect is the same. This relates both to the German population and to other countries. As we noted earlier, question sensitivity probably varies across different populations, and hence the treatment effect of applying ICT to survey questions on COVID-19 vaccination is likely to also vary. Moreover, we cannot make any statements about the validity of estimates on the basis of data collected directly from health officials and workers, such as those collected in the RKI’s Digital Vaccine Coverage Monitor. It is possible that incomplete data transferred from vaccination centers, hospitals, and physicians may lead to other forms of bias (especially if the quality of the reporting is dependent on other unobserved factors).

Another issue is statistical power. If we follow the advice of Blair, Coppock, and Moor (2020), then our sample size implies a power of less than 80 percent for a given DQ-ICT difference of 10 percentage points. This is a notorious problem of ICT procedures, which always come with highly inflated standard errors compared with conventional estimates. With respect to future studies, we strongly recommend ensuring sufficiently large sample sizes on one hand and using more advanced ICT setups that help boost the statistical efficiency of the estimates on the other hand (for some propositions, see Aronow et al. 2015).

More work is needed to discover further sources of bias (e.g., reaching nonnative speakers in surveys) to get a better idea of the true vaccination coverage. Until then, discrepancies in statistics will continue to exist for well-known reasons such as sampling error, survey biases, systematic under- and overreporting by health organizations, and others. The ultimate goal should be to work toward understanding as many sources of bias and inaccuracy as possible in order to provide the general public with honest and transparent information and avoid confusion and the potential for misrepresentation of statistics.

Heterosexual identified females were much more likely to report two or more lifetime same-sex partners than males

Heterosexual Identification and Same-Sex Partnering: Prevalence and Attitudinal Characteristics in the USA. Tony Silva. Archives of Sexual Behavior, May 3 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02293-9

Abstract: This paper used the 2011–2017 National Survey of Family Growth to estimate population sizes and attitudinal characteristics of heterosexual-identified men who have sex with men (MSM) and women who have sex with women (WSW) aged 15–44 years. Analyses estimated population sizes in stages: after excluding respondents who reported only one lifetime same-sex partner, which happened before the age of 15; after excluding males who reported nonconsensual male–male sex; after excluding respondents who reported only one lifetime same-sex partner, regardless of the age at which that experience occurred; after excluding respondents who reported only two lifetime same-sex partners, the first of which occurred before age 15; and after excluding males who reported male–male sex work. The broadest criteria included many individuals with limited same-sex sexual histories or those who experienced nonconsensual sex or potentially coerced sex in youth. After excluding those respondents, analyses showed that heterosexual-identified MSM and WSW had a diversity of attitudes about gender and LGB rights; only a distinct minority were overtly homophobic and conservative. Researchers should carefully consider whether to include respondents who report unwanted sexual contact or sex at very young ages when they analyze sexual identity–behavior discordance or define sexual minority populations on the basis of behavior.

A Novel Human Sex Difference: Male Sclera Are Redder and Yellower than Female Sclera

A Novel Human Sex Difference: Male Sclera Are Redder and Yellower than Female Sclera. Sarah S. Kramer & Richard Russell. Archives of Sexual Behavior, May 4 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02304-9

Abstract

In a seminal study, Kobayashi and Kohshima (1997) found that the human sclera—the white of the eye—is unique among primates for its whitish color, and subsequent work has supported the notion that this coloration underlies the human ability to gaze follow. Kobayashi and Kohshima also claimed that there is no significant sex difference in sclera color, though no data were presented to support the claim. We investigated sclera color in a standardized sample of faces varying in age and sex, presenting the first data comparing male and female sclera color. Our data support the claim that indeed there is a sex difference in sclera color, with male sclera being yellower and redder than female sclera. We also replicated earlier findings that female sclera vary in color across the adult lifespan, with older sclera appearing yellower, redder, and slightly darker than younger sclera, and we extended these findings to male sclera. Finally, in two experiments we found evidence that people use sclera color as a cue for making judgements of facial femininity or masculinity. When sclera were manipulated to appear redder and yellower, faces were perceived as more masculine, but were perceived as more feminine when sclera were manipulated to appear less red and yellow. Though people are typically unaware of the sex difference in sclera color, these findings suggest that people nevertheless use the difference as a visual cue when perceiving sex-related traits from the face.

Insurance: In many golf circles, it was (and still is) customary for the lucky golfer to buy drinks for everyone in the clubhouse after landing a hole-in-one; this often resulted in prohibitively expensive bar tabs

I loved this:

In many golf circles, it was (and still is) customary for the lucky golfer to buy drinks for everyone in the clubhouse after landing a hole-in-one. This often resulted in prohibitively expensive bar tabs.

And an industry sprouted up to protect these golfers.

A newspaper archive analysis by The Hustle revealed that hole-in-one insurance firms sprouted up as early as 1933.

Under this model, golfers could pay a fee — say, $1.50 (about $35 today) — to cover a $25 (~$550) bar tab. And as one paper noted in 1937: “The way some of the boys have been bagging the dodos, it might not be a bad idea.”

Though the concept largely faded away in the US, it became a big business in Japan, where golfers who landed a hole-in-one were expected to throw parties “comparable to a small wedding,” including live music, food, drinks, and commemorative tree plantings.

By the 1990s, the hole-in-one insurance industry had a total market value of $220m. An estimated 30% of all Japanese golfers shelled out $50-$70/year to insure themselves against up to $3.5k in expenses.

Source: The strange business of hole-in-one insurance. Zachary Crockett. The Hustle. Apr 22 2022. https://thehustle.co/the-strange-business-of-hole-in-one-insurance/amp/

h/t Tyler Cowen https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/05/insurance-markets-in-everything-4.html

A large majority of the population agreed that certain people had better aesthetic taste than others, only 1.3pct considered that good taste is determined by the taste of experts

De Gustibus Est Disputandum: An Empirical Investigation of the Folk Concept of Aesthetic Taste. Constant Bonard, Florian Cova, Steve Humbert-Droz. Chapter in Perspectives on Taste, 1st ed, Routeledge, 2022. ISBN 9781003184225. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003184225-7/de-gustibus-est-disputandum-constant-bonard-florian-cova-steve-humbert-droz

Abstract: Past research on folk aesthetics has suggested that most people are subjectivists when it comes to aesthetic judgment. However, most people also make a distinction between good and bad aesthetic taste. To understand the extent to which these two observations conflict with one another, we need a better understanding of people’s everyday concept of aesthetic taste. In this chapter, we present the results of a study in which participants drawn from a representative sample of the US population were asked whether they usually distinguish between good and bad taste, how they define them, and whether aesthetic taste can be improved. Those who answered positively to the first question were asked to provide their definition of good and bad taste, while those who answered positively to the third question were asked to detail by what means taste can be improved. Our results suggest that most people distinguish between good and bad taste and think taste can be improved. People’s definitions of good and bad taste were varied and were torn between very subjectivist conceptions of taste and others that lent themselves to a more objectivist interpretation. Overall, our results suggest that the tension Hume observed in conceptions of aesthetic taste is still present today.