Short-term effective radiative forcing trends are difficult to verify, so caution is required in predictions/policy judgments that depend on them, such as the time remaining to, or the outstanding carbon budget consistent with, 1.5C warming

Is Anthropogenic Global Warming Accelerating? Stuart Jenkins et al. Journal of Climate, Vol 35, Issue 24, Pages 4273–4290, Nov 22 2022. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0081.1

Abstract: Estimates of the anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) trend have increased by 50% since 2000 (from +0.4 W m−2 decade−1 in 2000–09 to +0.6 W m−2 decade−1 in 2010–19), the majority of which is driven by changes in the aerosol ERF trend, as a result of aerosol emissions reductions. Here we study the extent to which observations of the climate system agree with these ERF assumptions. We use a large ERF ensemble from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to attribute the anthropogenic contributions to global mean surface temperature (GMST), top-of-atmosphere radiative flux, and we use aerosol optical depth observations. The GMST trend has increased from +0.18°C decade−1 in 2000–09 to +0.35°C decade−1 in 2010–19, coinciding with the anthropogenic warming trend rising from +0.19°C decade−1 in 2000–09 to +0.24°C decade−1 in 2010–19. This, as well as observed trends in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and aerosol optical depths, supports the claim of an aerosol-induced temporary acceleration in the rate of warming. However, all three observation datasets additionally suggest that smaller aerosol ERF trend changes are compatible with observations since 2000, since radiative flux and GMST trends are significantly influenced by internal variability over this period. A zero-trend-change aerosol ERF scenario results in a much smaller anthropogenic warming acceleration since 2000 but is poorly represented in AR6’s ERF ensemble. Short-term ERF trends are difficult to verify using observations, so caution is required in predictions or policy judgments that depend on them, such as estimates of current anthropogenic warming trend, and the time remaining to, or the outstanding carbon budget consistent with, 1.5°C warming. Further systematic research focused on quantifying trends and early identification of acceleration or deceleration is required.

4. Consequences of alternative aerosol forcing trends

Successive IPCC reports have given assessments of the level of anthropogenic global warming, but no equivalent assessment of the rate of human-induced warming has been made. This is despite the rate of warming offering arguably more policy relevance at the present day in determining the time remaining to key goals of the Paris Agreement. This study highlights the key contributors to a perceived acceleration in the anthropogenic rate of warming since 2000 and uses observations of the climate system to constrain the forced response. Section 2 breaks down an ERF dataset that suggests anthropogenic ERF accelerated between 2000 and 2020, shown to arise because of aerosol forcing trends becoming positive around 2010 in the ERF ensemble. In section 3 we then step through three observational records to search for evidence supporting this assessed trend change.

Global temperatures show a clear change in trend between 2000 and 2020, characterized by temperatures remaining stable at around +1.0°C above preindustrial levels in the first decade, whereas in the second decade temperatures increase rapidly (with the rate of warming peaking at over +0.3°C decade−1). The reduced warming trend around 2000 has been discussed in the context of ocean heat uptake and natural variability (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2021; IPCC et al. 2013), but less research has focused on a possible warming acceleration in the following decade induced by aerosol ERF trend changes. By attributing the temperature trends to anthropogenic and natural ERFs we show that the forcing time series from Fig. 2 capture the broad warming contributions over the previous two decades (Fig. 4). However, significant variations around the anthropogenic best fit are still present (e.g., see the period of early Arctic warming in Fig. 4a), and alternative forcing trend change assumptions can be applied with little indication of a worse fit. A three-way regression isolates the aerosol contribution over history in Fig. 5, fitting the mid-twentieth-century GMST more successfully by downscaling the aerosol contribution. Hence, the aerosol ERF trend change contribution since 2000 is also downscaled, with best-estimate anthropogenic warming trend change around +0.05°C decade−1 between 2000–09 and 2010–19 (the 5th–95th-percentile range spans 0.01°–0.08°C decade−1). The aerosol contribution to this is +0.03°C decade−1 between 2000–09 and 2010–19 (the 5th–95th-percentile range spans 0.00°–0.07°C decade−1).

In the CERES record, LW TOA flux contributions are explained by recent GMST and forcing trends combined, while there is greater uncertainty in the contributors to the SW and net flux anomalies. In the SW anomaly, unforced variability in temperature and TOA flux time series precludes clear assessments of the aerosol ERF contribution, supporting the assessment that significant contributions from ENSO and PDO are present in recent TOA flux trend changes. Given this, TOA flux trends cannot rule out little to no anthropogenic ERF trend change over the two decades, despite the best-estimate anthropogenic ERF time series agreeing well with both TOA fluxes and temperature anomalies. Figure 6’s middle column (atmosphere-only TOA flux anomalies) and right column (coupled-model TOA flux anomalies) confirm the major role played by natural variability processes in these TOA flux records, demonstrating that the trend change induced in the SW TOA flux anomaly, where we expect to observe a large trend change induced by aerosols (Fig. 6h), is small relative to the trend change caused by unforced variability over the previous two decades (Fig. 6e). Continued funding for new satellites to study the outgoing radiative balance of the Earth system (such as the recently announced FORUM mission; ESA 2021) is vitally important in order to maintain long-term records and constrain radiative feedbacks with greater certainty.

Satellite observations and CMIP6 models agree that a relatively small AOD trend change has occurred over the last two decades, despite significant reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Northern Hemisphere. Exploring a linear relationship between AOD and aerosol ERF trends (based on the mean response of CMIP6 models) allows us to estimate the ERF trend change expected in response to the observed AOD trend change since 2000. This analysis again supports the best estimate ERFs in Fig. 2, but also suggests that little-to-no trend change remains a possible assessment for ERF trends since 2000 in observations. The spatial pattern of aerosol emissions also may play a role in determining the aerosol ERF level (Stier et al. 2013), causing nonlinearities in the AOD and ERF responses to globally averaged aerosol emissions reductions. Further research of ERF trends and feedbacks using their full spatiotemporal signal in AMIP GCM experiments where forcing time series are known, and conducting regional aerosol perturbation experiments in coupled models (Wilcox et al. 2022), will provide more insight.

Overall, this assessment suggests that aerosol emissions reductions have contributed to an increase in the rate of anthropogenic warming since 2000, but both to a lesser degree than is suggested in the ERFs presented in Fig. 2, and with a substantial uncertainty range including the possibility of little contribution over two decades. The forced behavior coincides with a period of considerable internal variability, meaning that isolating the aerosol-induced ERF trend change from observations is challenging, and that a wide range of ERF scenarios offer plausible explanations of the past 20 years. Some of these possibilities are not well represented in the ERF ensemble shown in Fig. 2: for example, a zero-trend-change aerosol ERF scenario between 2000 and 2020 (shown in Fig. 2 as an dashed orange line, with the corresponding anthropogenic ERF a black dashed line), is considered possible in the analysis of all three observation datasets but is not represented well in the ERF ensemble of Fig. 2. Using a zero-trend-change aerosol ERF to attribute the anthropogenic contribution to global warming results in a similar quality fit to GMSTs (see dashed orange and black lines in Fig. 5, left panel), but substantially reduces the anthropogenic warming trend change that occurs since 2000 (orange and black dashed lines in Fig. 5, right panel). A comprehensive ERF ensemble of the recent time-history of anthropogenic ERF should offer these alternative scenarios, including scenarios with reduced aerosol ERF trend change since 2000 and with alternative rescalings for all pollutants using global energy balance constraints [e.g., those in Smith et al. (2021a) or Fig. 5].

The importance of continuing to track and constrain the early twenty-first century’s forcing trends is underappreciated, and future work should focus on providing better constraints to near-term forcing trends as well as their levels. Short-term ERF trends are vital to accurately assess this decade’s warming rate, with tangible, real-time impacts for global mitigation policy.

Think-tank employees favor military intervention much more than professors; those who favor interventionist policies are more likely to pursue positions to increase their policy influence

What Do Think Tanks Think? Proximity to Power and Foreign Policy Preferences. Richard Hanania, Max Abrahms. Foreign Policy Analysis, Volume 19, Issue 1, January 2023, orac031, https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orac031

Abstract: Through the use of survey methods, the study presents the first systematic comparison of America-based international relations professors to think tank employees (TTEs) in terms of their preferred conduct of the United States in international affairs. The difference between the two groups in their support for military intervention is stark. TTEs are 0.47 standard deviations more hawkish than professors based on a standard measure of militant internationalism (MI). Controlling for self-described ideology mitigates this effect although it remains statistically significant. Beyond quantifying their relative foreign policy preferences, this study helps to resolve why TTEs tend to assume more hawkish policies. The authors find evidence that hawkishness is associated with proximity to power. Professors who have worked for the federal government score higher on MI, as do TTEs based at institutions located closer to Capitol Hill. In general, the results point to a self-selection mechanism whereby those who favor interventionist policies are more likely to pursue positions to increase their policy influence, perhaps because they know that powerful institutions are more likely to hire hawks. Alternative explanations for differences, such as levels or kinds of foreign policy expertise, have weaker empirical support.

Among older adults with subjective cognitive concerns, mindfulness training, exercise, or both did not result in significant differences in improvement in episodic memory or executive function at 6 months

Effects of Mindfulness Training and Exercise on Cognitive Function in Older Adults: A Randomized Clinical Trial. Eric J. Lenze et al. JAMA. 2022;328(22):2218-2229. doi:10.1001/jama.2022.21680

Key Points

Question  Does mindfulness training, exercise, or the combination of these interventions improve cognitive function in older adults with subjective cognitive concerns?

Findings  In this randomized clinical trial that included 585 participants, mindfulness training, exercise, or both did not result in significant differences in improvement in episodic memory or executive function composite scores at 6 months.

Meaning  The findings do not support the use of mindfulness training, exercise, or a combination of both for significantly improving cognitive function in older adults with subjective cognitive concerns.

Abstract

Importance  Episodic memory and executive function are essential aspects of cognitive functioning that decline with aging. This decline may be ameliorable with lifestyle interventions.

Objective  To determine whether mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR), exercise, or a combination of both improve cognitive function in older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This 2 × 2 factorial randomized clinical trial was conducted at 2 US sites (Washington University in St Louis and University of California, San Diego). A total of 585 older adults (aged 65-84 y) with subjective cognitive concerns, but not dementia, were randomized (enrollment from November 19, 2015, to January 23, 2019; final follow-up on March 16, 2020).

Interventions  Participants were randomized to undergo the following interventions: MBSR with a target of 60 minutes daily of meditation (n = 150); exercise with aerobic, strength, and functional components with a target of at least 300 minutes weekly (n = 138); combined MBSR and exercise (n = 144); or a health education control group (n = 153). Interventions lasted 18 months and consisted of group-based classes and home practice.

Main Outcomes and Measures  The 2 primary outcomes were composites of episodic memory and executive function (standardized to a mean [SD] of 0 [1]; higher composite scores indicate better cognitive performance) from neuropsychological testing; the primary end point was 6 months and the secondary end point was 18 months. There were 5 reported secondary outcomes: hippocampal volume and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex thickness and surface area from structural magnetic resonance imaging and functional cognitive capacity and self-reported cognitive concerns.

Results  Among 585 randomized participants (mean age, 71.5 years; 424 [72.5%] women), 568 (97.1%) completed 6 months in the trial and 475 (81.2%) completed 18 months. At 6 months, there was no significant effect of mindfulness training or exercise on episodic memory (MBSR vs no MBSR: 0.44 vs 0.48; mean difference, –0.04 points [95% CI, –0.15 to 0.07]; P = .50; exercise vs no exercise: 0.49 vs 0.42; difference, 0.07 [95% CI, –0.04 to 0.17]; P = .23) or executive function (MBSR vs no MBSR: 0.39 vs 0.31; mean difference, 0.08 points [95% CI, –0.02 to 0.19]; P = .12; exercise vs no exercise: 0.39 vs 0.32; difference, 0.07 [95% CI, –0.03 to 0.18]; P = .17) and there were no intervention effects at the secondary end point of 18 months. There was no significant interaction between mindfulness training and exercise (P = .93 for memory and P = .29 for executive function) at 6 months. Of the 5 prespecified secondary outcomes, none showed a significant improvement with either intervention compared with those not receiving the intervention.

Conclusions and Relevance  Among older adults with subjective cognitive concerns, mindfulness training, exercise, or both did not result in significant differences in improvement in episodic memory or executive function at 6 months. The findings do not support the use of these interventions for improving cognition in older adults with subjective cognitive concerns.

Parental Income and the Sexual Behavior of Their Adult Children: A Trivers–Willard Perspective

Parental Income and the Sexual Behavior of Their Adult Children: A Trivers–Willard Perspective. John T. Manning, Bernhard Fink, and Robert Trivers. Evolutionary Psychology, December 12, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/14747049221142858

Abstract: Parental income is negatively and linearly related to the digit ratio (2D:4D; a proxy for prenatal sex steroids) of their children. Children of parents with high income are thought to be exposed to higher prenatal testosterone and develop lower 2D:4D. It is further hypothesized that 2D:4D relates to sexual orientation, although it is unclear whether the association is linear or curvilinear. Here, we consider patterns of parental income and its association with the sexual behavior of their adult children in a large online study (the BBC internet study). There were curvilinear relationships with parental income in male and female children. The highest frequencies of homosexuality and bisexuality were found in the lowest income group (bottom 25% of the population), the lowest frequencies in the income group representing the upper 50% of the population, and intermediate values in the other groups (low 50% and top 25% of the population). Parental income showed a U-shaped association with scores for same-sex attraction and an inverted U-shaped association with opposite-sex attraction. Thus, for the first time, we show that same-sex attraction is related to parental income. The curvilinear relationship between parental income and sexual behavior in their adult children may result from an association between very high fetal estrogen or testosterone and attraction to partners of the same sex. Among non-heterosexuals, and in both sexes, very high fetal estrogen may be associated with femme or submissive sexual roles, and very high fetal testosterone with butch and assertive sexual roles.

Check also High-income women may prenatally masculinize their sons at the expense of the fitness of their daughters; low-income women may prenatally feminize their daughters at the fitness expense of their sons:

Parental income inequality and children’s digit ratio (2D:4D): a ‘Trivers-Willard’ effect on prenatal androgenization? J.T. Manning et al. Journal of Biosocial Science, February 2021. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2021/02/high-income-women-may-prenatally.html

Discussion

The current study found that in male adult children, homosexuality was the most frequent non-heterosexual group and bisexuality was rare. For female adult children, bisexuality was more frequent than homosexuality. Parental income was related to the frequency of sexual orientation (heterosexuality, homosexuality, bisexuality) of their adult children. The association between parental income and sexual orientation of children was found in the total sample and when we considered the most numerous ethnic group (Whites) in the two largest national samples (UK and USA), thus confirming our prediction (i).

Parents with income that was “much lower than others” (bottom 25% of the population) had the highest frequencies of homosexuality and bisexuality for both male and female adult children. The lowest frequency of homosexuality was found in the male and female children of parents with an income “slightly higher than others” (upper 50% of the population). Parents with an income “much higher than others” (top 25% of the population) had male and female children with intermediate frequencies of homosexuality.

Concerning adult children's scores for sexual attraction to others, in men, same-sex attraction was highest among children of parents with an income corresponding to the bottom and top 25% of the population, and the lowest scores were found in children of parents with an income “slightly higher than others” (upper 50% of the population). For women, same-sex attraction was greatest for adult children of parents with an “income much lower than others” (bottom 25% of the population), lowest in children of parents with an income “slightly higher than others” (as for men) and intermediate for children of parents with an income representing the top 25% of the population. Splitting the sample for ethnicity (Whites only) and nation (UK and USA), UK scores for adult children's same-sex attraction were lower than those for the US with the former reporting the highest scores for the income group representing the bottom 25% of the population and the latter reporting very high scores for the highest income group (top 25% of the population). Overall, for both the frequency of sexual orientation groups and the same-sex attraction scores, we found no evidence for linear relationships. Concerning same-sex attraction scores, post hoc tests confirmed a U-shaped association such that the frequency of homosexuality/bisexuality and the magnitude of same-sex attraction scores were highest in the adult children from parents with the lowest (bottom 25% of the population) and to a lesser extent in parents with the highest income (top 25% of the population). The nadir of the attraction scores was observed in adult children from parents with an income “slightly higher than others” (upper 50% of the population). Therefore, our prediction (ii) was rejected and prediction (iii) was supported.

The curvilinear relationships between parental income and the sexual behavior of their adult children are, to our knowledge, novel. Our interpretation of these relationships is through the lens of the “Trivers–Willard” hypothesis (Trivers & Willard, 1973). We suggest that parental income is a marker of maternal condition (Babones, 2008; Pickett & Wilkinson, 2015). Male children have a greater variance in reproductive success than female children in human and nonhuman animals (Bateman, 1948; Trivers & Willard, 1973). Male children of mothers in poor condition (lowest parental income) will have below-average male reproductive success, but in contrast, daughters from mothers with the lowest parental income will have reproductive success closer to the female mean. Thus, mothers will be selected to favor their daughters depending on parental income by reducing their prenatal testosterone and increasing their prenatal estrogen. If mothers cannot distinguish between their male and female fetuses this will mean they expose their male offspring to a feminized fetal environment. Conversely, mothers in good condition (highest parental income) will androgenize their fetuses of both sexes. We have found high frequencies of homosexuality and bisexuality and same-sex attraction scores in adult children of mothers with the lowest and highest parental income. This suggests that both a high fetal estrogen-to-testosterone ratio and a high fetal testosterone-to-estrogen ratio are related to an increase in the probability of non-heterosexuality in adult children. We speculate that among the former, there may be a high proportion of “receptive” male homosexuals and “femme” female homosexuals. Among the latter, there may be a preponderance of “insertive” male homosexuals and “butch” female homosexuals.

In conclusion, the current study builds on the finding that parental income is negatively related to 2D:4D in both adult female and male children (Manning et al., 2022). Insofar as 2D:4D is a correlate of prenatal sex steroids and prenatal sex steroids influence sexual behavior, we predicted that parental income would be associated with children's sexual orientation and same-sex scores for sexual attraction to others. Our prediction was confirmed, so that compared to adult children of parents with the lowest income and those with an income “slightly higher,” the former was associated with higher frequencies of homosexuality and bisexuality and high attraction scores toward the same sex for both male and female adult children. Moreover, a comparison between children from “slightly higher” income families and those that had “much higher” income also showed an increase in homosexuality, bisexuality, and same-sex attraction scores in the latter. We suggest that very high fetal estrogen and testosterone are both associated with nonheterosexual behavior in adult male and female children. That is, prenatal sex steroids are related to sexual orientation in a U-shaped fashion. The relationship between 2D:4D and sexual orientation should now be reexamined for curvilinear effects. 

Increasing Tweeter access yields less corporate misconduct; effect is stronger for facilities of more visible firms; effect is concentrated in non-financial violations (unsafe workplace conditions or inappropriate treatment of employees/customers)

Heese, Jonas and Pacelli, Joseph, The Monitoring Role of Social Media (November 16, 2022). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4278696

Abstract: In this study, we examine whether social media activity can reduce corporate misconduct. We use the staggered introduction of 3G mobile broadband access across the United States to identify exogenous increases in social media activity and test whether access to 3G reduces misconduct. We find that facilities reduce violations by 1.8% and penalties by 13% following the introduction of 3G in a local area. To validate social media activity as the underlying mechanism, we show that 3G access results in sharp increases in Tweet volume and that facilities located in areas with high Tweet volume engage in less misconduct. The effect of 3G access on misconduct is stronger for facilities of more visible firms and concentrated in non-financial violations, such as those involving unsafe workplace conditions and inappropriate treatment of employees and customers. Overall, our results demonstrate that social media plays an important role in monitoring corporate misconduct.

Keywords: corporate misconduct, social media, Twitter, mobile broadband.

JEL Classification: M40, M41, M43

Humans stand alone in nature in their ability to form lasting, peaceful and productive relationships with conspecifics from foreign groups

The Evolution of Peace. Luke Glowacki. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, December 16 2022. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X22002862

Abstract: While some species have affiliative and even cooperative interactions between individuals of different social groups, humans are alone in having durable, positive-sum, interdependent relationships across unrelated social groups. Our capacity to have harmonious relationships that cross group boundaries is an important aspect of our species’ success, allowing for the exchange of ideas, materials, and ultimately enabling cumulative cultural evolution. Knowledge about the conditions required for peaceful intergroup relationships is critical for understanding the success of our species and building a more peaceful world. How do humans create harmonious relationships across group boundaries and when did this capacity emerge in the human lineage? Answering these questions involves considering the costs and benefits of intergroup cooperation and aggression, for oneself, one's group, and one's neighbor. Taking a game theoretical perspective provides new insights into the difficulties of removing the threat of war and reveals an ironic logic to peace—the factors that enable peace also facilitate the increased scale and destructiveness of conflict. In what follows, I explore the conditions required for peace, why they are so difficult to achieve, and when we expect peace to have emerged in the human lineage. I argue that intergroup cooperation was an important component of human relationships and a selective force in our species history in the past 300 thousand years. But the preconditions for peace only emerged in the past 100 thousand years and likely coexisted with intermittent intergroup violence which would have also been an important and selective force in our species’ history.

How musicality changes moral consideration: People judge musical entities as more wrong to harm

How musicality changes moral consideration: People judge musical entities as more wrong to harm. Tanushree Agrawal, Joshua Rottman, and Adena Schachner. Psychology of Music, June 4, 2022, Volume 51, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.1177/03057356221096507

Abstract: A growing literature shows that music increases prosocial behavior. Why does this occur? We propose a novel hypothesis, informed by moral psychology: evidence of others’ musicality may promote prosociality by leading us to judge musical individuals as having enhanced moral standing. This effect may be largely indirect, by increasing perceptions of how intelligent and emotionally sensitive musical individuals are. If so, simply knowing about others’ musicality should affect moral evaluations, such as wrongness to harm. Across four experiments (total N = 550), we found supportive evidence. Information that an animal or person had the capacity and motivation to engage with music led participants to judge these entities as more wrong to harm than matched neutral or non-musical counterparts. Similarly, knowing that a person was not musical made people judge them as less wrong to harm than neutral or musical counterparts. As predicted, musicality was positively associated with perceptions of capacities for emotionality and intelligence, and these broader factors partially mediated the relationship between musicality and wrongness to harm. These effects were not influenced by participants’ own musicality. Thus, non-moral attributes like musicality can impact moral consideration, carrying implications for social behavior and for interventions to promote prosociality.

General discussion

Across four experiments, we found that simply knowing that certain entities are capable of engaging with music leads participants to judge them as being more wrong to harm. When musicality was experimentally manipulated, participants judged it to be more painful for them to harm musical rather than control animal individuals (Exp. 1) and members of a musical versus control animal species (Exps. 2–4). This effect extended to judgments about humans. Participants judged it to be more painful for them to harm a highly musical individual, over a neutral baseline or control individual; and less painful to harm an individual with low musicality, below a neutral baseline (Exps. 2–4).

A major question in music psychology is why music promotes prosocial behavior, and when it can be expected to do so. Existing theoretical frameworks across both music psychology and moral psychology predict that first-person engagement with music should increase prosociality, through personally listening, playing, or dancing to music (e.g., Clarke et al., 2015). We find that third-person observations, even written evidence of others’ musicality, affect evaluations about wrongness to harm. These findings broaden the range of contexts in which music may be expected to impact social and moral behaviors.

Our findings further provide an explanation of why musicality shifts moral decisions: musicality provides broader evidence of inner mental life, including the capacity for emotional experience and intelligence (Exp. 4). Inferences about experience and intelligence act as mediators, linking evidence of musicality to increased wrongness to harm. Our data also speak against two alternative accounts. We find no evidence that similarity attraction explains these effects (Reis, 2007). Participants’ own level of musicality did not predict their tendencies to choose musical entities as more wrong to harm. Our data also cannot be parsimoniously explained by the idea that participants simply choose the more unusual, unique or surprising character as more wrong to harm. Non-musical people are relatively rare (Stewart, 2014), yet we find they are judged least wrong to harm among human characters (Exps. 3 and 4).

These findings suggest that beliefs in animal musicality may aid animal conservation efforts. Anecdotally, the movement to save the whales is believed to have gained momentum from whalesong research, with scientists taking evidence of musicality as evidence of wrongness to harm (e.g., biologist Roger Payne: “Do you make cat food out of composer-poets? I think that’s a crime”; May, 2014). This sentiment was echoed by laypeople and taken up as a banner issue by Greenpeace (May, 2014). The current findings provide a framework for explaining this phenomenon in terms of moral psychology.

Within the human population, people differ in their levels of musicality, with some people congenitally lacking the ability to perceive music (congenital amusia; Ayotte et al., 2002) or the ability to enjoy music (musical anhedonia; Loui et al., 2017; Mas-Herrero et al., 2014). In contrast, other clinical conditions like Williams syndrome are linked with high musicality (Levitin et al., 2004; Ng et al., 2013). Our findings suggest that people may judge it less wrong to harm individuals with amusia or musical anhedonia, and may be particularly compassionate toward individuals with conditions like Williams. Understanding these biases has the potential to inform our understanding of attitudes toward members of these clinical populations.

Is musicality unique in its impact on social and moral judgments? We do not expect musicality to be the only behavior that provides evidence of others’ mental and emotional abilities, or moral worth. However, we theorize that musicality is one of a small set of behaviors that provide this evidence easily, quickly, and convincingly. In ongoing work, we are testing the hypothesis that behaviors that demonstrate others’ ability to value activities or experiences for their own intrinsic worth (such as aesthetic judgments, e.g., appreciation of beauty in art, poetry, or nature; Fayn et al., 2015; McCrae & Sutin, 2009) provide particularly strong evidence of others’ emotional sensitivity, and thus their wrongness to harm. We contrast this with behaviors that are instrumental or extrinsically motivated (e.g., reaching a certain object or location), which we hypothesize may provide weaker evidence of emotional sensitivity. Aesthetic and moral judgments may be more deeply related than previously believed. Recent neuroimaging work shows similar neural activity and representations of aesthetic and moral judgments, suggesting similar cognitive processes in these domains (Heinzelmann et al., 2020; Tsukiura & Cabeza, 2011; Watson, 2013). We are testing our broader hypothesis regarding the role of aesthetic appreciation and intrinsic versus instrumental value in ongoing work.

The implications of human musicality for social attitudes are also likely to be more complex than is evident from the present studies. For example, the extent to which musicality is seen as a sign of intelligence may differ based on the genre of music (e.g., pop vs classical); or the extent to which the music is seen as sophisticated (e.g., Loomba, 2015). In the current experiments, we intentionally designed our vignettes to remain vague regarding the characters’ preferred genre of music and the mode of their engagement with music. Future work may explore the impact of various forms of engagement with different types of music on intergroup attitudes and related social judgments. Overall, we find that reasoning about others’ musicality is deeply interwoven with moral thought, providing a framework for understanding why music and dance, seemingly amoral aesthetic behaviors, have consequences for social and moral behaviors. 

Japan: Lack of sexual interest is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in men

Sakurada K, Konta T, Murakami N, Kosugi N, Saito T, Watanabe M, et al. (2022) Association between lack of sexual interest and all-cause mortality in a Japanese general population: The Yamagata prospective observational study. PLoS ONE 17(12): e0277967, Dec 14 2022. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277967

Abstract
Background: Sexual interest is essential for maintaining positive sexual relationships and sexual function, which have recently been recognized as important indicators of good health and quality of life. Here, we prospectively investigated associations between sexual interest and mortality in a community-based population.

Methods: This study enrolled 20,969 subjects (8,558 males and 12,411 females) aged ≥ 40 years who participated in annual health check-ups in Yamagata Prefecture. Sexual interest was assessed by a self-report questionnaire. Associations between sexual interest and increased all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, and cancer mortality were investigated by Cox proportional hazards modeling.

Results: During follow-up (median: 7.1 years), 503 subjects died; 67 deaths were due to cardiovascular disease, and 162 were due to cancer. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that all-cause mortality and cancer mortality were significantly elevated among men who lacked sexual interest (log-rank P<0.0001, P<0.05). Cox proportional hazards model analysis with adjustment for age, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol drinking status, BMI, education, marital status, frequency of laughter, and psychological distress showed that the risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher among men who lacked sexual interest than men who had sexual interest (hazard ratio [HR] 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17–2.44).

Conclusion: Lack of sexual interest is suggested to be a risk factor for all-cause mortality in Japanese males over 40 years old. This finding has implications for the importance of sexual interest in increasing longevity in this population.

Discussion

Although sexual activity and sexual satisfaction are considered of benefit to psychological health and wellbeing in older groups, the association between sexual interest and longevity has not been investigated. This study is the first to prospectively examine associations between sexual interest and all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular and cancer mortality in a community-based population.

In our sample of people aged 40 years or more, 8.3% of males and 16.1% of females indicated a lack of sexual interest. Similar results were reported by Lindau et al. in two cross-sectional population-based surveys of aging conducted in the US [4]. Baseline characteristics indicated that a lack of sexual interest was associated with greater age, higher prevalence of past alcohol drinking, diabetes, low frequency of laughter, psychological distress, and lower education levels in male subjects. In female subjects, baseline characteristics showed that a lack of sexual interest was associated with greater age, higher prevalence of abstinence from alcohol, low frequency of laughter, psychological distress, divorce or widowhood, and lower education levels. For both sexes, negative psychological variables, including psychological distress and low frequency of laughter, were associated with decreased sexual interest.

Interestingly, our study suggests that lack of sexual interest is associated with all-cause mortality in males, even after adjustment for age, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol intake, BMI, education, marital status, frequency of laughter, and psychological distress. Based on our results, we suggest that lack of sexual interest itself contributes to an increased risk of all-cause mortality, independent of established risk factors in men over 40 years old. However, it is possible that some important confounding factors were not identified or adjusted.

Although to our knowledge the mechanisms underlying the main gender difference result have yet to be clarified, men with ‘ikigai’ were at lower risk of cardiovascular mortality than men without ‘ikigai,’ subsequent to age and multivariate adjustment. Uzuki et al. found that lack of social support was associated with risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, and these associations were stronger in males than females [22]. Previous studies have shown that risk-reduction effects of positive psychological factors on all-cause mortality and incidence of stroke differed according to gender [11, 17, 18]. Ikeda et al. reported that in Japan men who were divorced or widowed were at higher risk of mortality than married men, whereas no similar trend was observed in women [23]. Based on these results, we speculate that maintaining sexual interest may be related to positive psychological well-being and ‘ikigai’ especially among men.

Precisely how a lack of sexual interest impacts on health and longevity remains unknown, although several possibilities can be considered. Male lack of interest may be related with unhealthy lifestyles. In this study, men who reported a lack of sexual interest included more current smokers and cases of diabetes. Furthermore, if we assume that sexual interest is related to positive psychological factors, the absence of interest may affect a range of inflammatory, neuroendocrine, and immune responses. Positive affect is related with reduced neuroendocrine, inflammatory, and cardiovascular activities [24]. Chronic psychological stress has shown an association with suppressed immune response and increased susceptibility to malignancy and infection [25]. Further study is required to clarify the mechanisms which underlie the preventive effects of sexual interest on mortality.

The strengths of this study are its prospective design and substantial sample size. In addition, adjustment was done using a number of well-known risk factors, including age, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking status, alcohol intake, psychological distress, and medical history of depression. However, several limitations of the study should be noted. First, although we conducted multivariate analyses with adjustment for various potential confounding factors, some unidentified confounding factors may have remained. Moreover, we did not adjust for other medically relevant elements known to affect sexual function and longevity, such as neurological conditions, depression, and medications, because such information was not obtained in the baseline survey. Also, only a small number of depressed patients were included in this study. Second, we did not consider how the social regulation of sexuality differs among cultures. Similar research should be extended to other countries. Third, our question about lack of sexual interest focused on interest in the opposite sex; we did not control for sexual orientation.　Sasayama et al. reported that the prevalence of homoromantic attraction was 1.0% for females and 1.5% for males [26]. Based on these figures, the potential number of individuals in the present study with sexual interest in the same sex was estimated to be approximately 200 people. We therefore consider it unlikely that this number would have influenced our overall results. We suggest that future research should include lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQs) adults. Fourth, this study collected data on subjects who were at least 40 years old. Future research might also look more closely at the onset of decreasing interest in sex; for example, whether these results concern only men who had recently lost interest, or whether they extend to men who had little interest even when they were much younger. Fifth, all subjects participated in community-based annual health checks, and so they might have been more health-conscious and more socially active than the general population. In other words, some degree of selection bias might characterize our study sample.

Notwithstanding these limitations, the findings of this study support that idea that maintaining sexual interest has positive effects on longevity, especially in males. The Canadian government, through public health promotion materials, has begun to endorse sexual activity as one element of an “aging well” agenda [27]. In Japan, there is more prejudice about sex among the elderly than in the Western world. We hope our findings will help promote public health through advocating sexuality in Japan.

Every individual assessed as highly psychopathic produced approximately $111,000 in annual crime costs

An Economic Analysis of Crime Costs Associated with Psychopathic Personality Disorder and Violence Risk. Dylan T. Gatner et al. Criminal Justice and Behavior, December 13, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548221140366

Abstract: Given substantial national crime costs and that psychopathic personality disorder (PPD) is a robust predictor of recidivism, a research gap exists concerning the cost of crime attributable to adults with PPD. The current study employed a bottom-up cost of illness approach to estimate the association between PPD and crime costs among Canadian men incarcerated in the federal correctional system (n = 188). Participants were rated using the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R) and the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management–20 (HCR-20, version 2). Group mean crime costs were highest for participants who scored highly on the PCL-R and were rated high risk on the HCR-20, and higher scores on both measures were associated with prospective costs accrued from violent and nonviolent recidivism. The findings highlight the need to improve the treatment and management of high-risk individuals with prominent psychopathic features, as it has the potential for significant financial savings for criminal justice systems.

Shared fortune leads to in-group bias, while shared misfortune does not

Fortune and identity. Gary Charness, Xin Jiang. Economics Letters, December 14 2022, 110954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110954

Abstract: While group identity can generate in-group bias, the topic of how activities generate group affiliation is largely unexplored. We experimentally study the effect of shared experience on group affiliation, varying shared experiences by paying subjects differently for the same task. The results show that shared fortune leads to in-group bias, while shared misfortune does not.

Introduction

Economists have provided evidence that people exhibit an in-group bias in a variety of contexts, including charity (Chen and Li, 2009) and truth-telling (Rong et al., 2016). Many studies have found in-group favoritism even with the minimal-group paradigm, an almost trivial intergroup categorization. However, typically economists have only considered natural-identity categories such as race, gender, ethnic and religion (Hoff and Pandey, 2006, Benjamin et al., 2010). We extend the minimal-group paradigm to an environment where initial monetary reward based one’s induced group identity is based on pure luck.

It is intuitive to think that shared experience would establish a bond among people, potentially encouraging them to help and cooperate with each other. Therefore, matching people with the same experience might lead to a form of in-group bias. However, it is difficult to study the effect of shared experience in the field without confounds. Lab experiments offer a high degree of control and seem a useful tool for studying the effect of shared experiences in a stylized environment.

This study investigates how shared misfortune and fortune shape one’s sense of group affiliation. We assume that shared experiences generate group cohesion. In addition, the literature on prospect theory and loss aversion has provided considerable evidence that negative events have a larger effect on people’s behavior than positive events. Thus, we further expected that unfortunate participants would show more in-group favoritism than the fortunate participants.

The closest cousin to our study is Cassar and Klein (2019), who found that lottery failures favor other lottery failures more than other people, and there was no significant in-group bias among lottery winners. Our results differ from theirs in that shared fortune leads to in-group bias, while shared misfortune does not. The difference may come from the inequality-generation part. Cassar and Klein (2019) informed subjects of their absolute performance in a real-effort task, and the fact that their payoffs are randomly decided. It was not clear how people identified themselves with two pieces of information. The largest contribution of our experiment is that we resolve this concern. In our experiment, participants do the same task, and have the same performance. So, it is quite clear that their payoffs from this task only reflect random luck.

One third of mentally healthy people reported visual hallucinations similar to those experienced in psychosis, such as seeing people, faces or animals

What is the frequency and nature of visual hallucinations in non-clinical participants? Charlotte Aynsworth, Julie Rolinson, Maryam Pervez, Daniel Collerton, Robert Dudley. Psychology and Psychotherapy: Theory, Research and Practice. December 11 2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/papt.12440

Abstract

Objectives: There is a paucity of psychological treatments for visual hallucinations (VH). A key aspect in the psychological treatment of hallucination-related distress is normalisation to explain that these experiences are commonplace and can be non-distressing. In order to normalise VH, it is vital that more is known about VH in non-clinical populations. This study investigated the prevalence, content, context, appraisals, distress, and behavioural reactions to VH in a non-clinical sample.

Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted.

Methods: 466 students completed the Multi-Modality Unusual Sensory Experiences Questionnaire-VH subscale with additional contextual follow-up questions.

Results: Of the 466 participants, 395 (84.8%) reported anomalous visual experiences. 176 (37.77%) participants reported VH similar to the content seen in psychosis. Of the overall sample, 17.38% felt their experience met the VH definition. Participants mainly saw figures, when alone and in the evening. Participants endorsed normalising appraisals: 112 out of 176 (78.87%) believed their mind was playing tricks on them and 83 (58.45%) believed they were tired. However, many also believed the VH was a threat to their mental (66, 46.48%) or physical well-being (41, 28.87%). These negative appraisals were associated with distress.

Conclusion: VH are seemingly common in non-clinical populations and are similar in a number of ways to those of people with psychosis. Awareness that VH occur on a continuum could normalise people's experiences and reduce their negative appraisals and related distress.

In 1967, 82.7% of 25-34 years old Americans lived with their spouse; today it is 37.5%

 

Subjective orgasm experience: Heterosexual people (vs. gay & bisexual people) had a more intense experience

Evaluating the Subjective Orgasm Experience Through Sexual Context, Gender, and Sexual Orientation. Laura Elvira Muñoz-García, Carmen Gómez-Berrocal & Juan Carlos Sierra. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Dec 12 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02493-3

Abstract: The subjective orgasm experience (SOE) is the psychological perception of orgasm sensations and closely related to sexual health. Here, SOE was studied through the context in which it is experienced (sexual relationships and solitary masturbation), gender, and sexual orientation. For this purpose, data were collected from 4255 people (1927 men and 2328 women) of different sexual orientations (heterosexual = 1545; bisexual = 1202; and gay = 1508) who completed two versions of the Orgasm Rating Scale (ORS) for both contexts (i.e., sexual relationships and solitary masturbation) along with a socio-demographic questionnaire. Results showed that the ORS in the context of solitary masturbation is an instrument invariant by gender and sexual orientation. Significant differences in SOE were found by context: it was more intense in the context of sexual relationships (vs. solitary masturbation); by gender: women (vs. men) reported greater intensity; and by sexual orientation, with heterosexual people (vs. gay and bisexual people) having a more intense experience.

Discussion

The main objective of this study was first, to test measurement invariance by gender and sexual orientation of the Spanish version of the ORS (Mah & Binik, 2011) of Cervilla et al. (2022) in the context of solitary masturbation. Second, it was to analyze the SOE across situational (i.e., context in which orgasm was experienced: solitary masturbation vs. sexual relationships) and individual characteristics (i.e., gender and sexual orientation).

The results of the measurement invariance by gender and sexual orientation of the ORS in the solitary masturbation context confirmed that it is an invariant scale (H1), both by gender and sexual orientation. Therefore, it is a valid instrument to measure and compare the SOE of different groups (men vs. women, and heterosexual vs. bisexual vs. gay) (Pineda et al., 2018).

Previous studies indicated that the SOE was more intense in the context of sexual relationships (vs. that of solitary masturbation) (Bensman, 2011; Levin, 2007; Mah & Binik, 2002; Pinkerton et al., 2003; Santtila et al., 2007; Sierra et al., 2022). Although our results in general confirmed this pattern (H2), they also allowed us to qualify the role of context on the SOE. The results showed that the dimensions related to emotions, sensations, and intimacy were more intense in sexual relationships, while that related to the rewarding effect of orgasm was more intense in solitary masturbation. Specifically, the scores for the Affective, Sensory, and Intimacy dimensions were higher in the sexual relationships context (vs. solitary masturbation), while the scores for the Rewards dimension were more intense in the solitary masturbation context (vs. sexual relationships). Moreover, these results were repeated when the variables of an individual’s gender and sexual orientation are considered. This pattern confirmed the results of previous studies, which indicated that both men and women value partnered orgasms as more intimate and solitary orgasms as more rewarding (Mah & Binik, 2002).

Based on previous research, we expected to find a significant relationship between gender and the SOE dimensions in both contexts (Arcos-Romero & Sierra, 2019; Arcos-Romero et al., 2018; Sierra et al., 2021, 2022). In accordance with these studies (H3), women got higher scores than men on three dimensions (Affective, Sensory, and Intimacy) in the sexual relationships context, which refers to emotions, physiological changes, and the intimate aspect of the orgasmic experience. This is consistent with previous evidence showing that women associated orgasms achieved through sexual relationships with more intense bodily sensations, more intimacy, and greater connection in sexual relationships (Fahs, 2014). However, we found that on the Rewards dimension, in the context of sexual relationships, men scored higher than women, which is also consistent with previous studies in which men reported having a more rewarding orgasm (Paterson et al., 2014). Finally, no differences were found between men and women on the Rewards dimension in the solitary masturbation context. Thus, in this context, gender did not influence the rewarding aspect of orgasm.

One explanation for the gender gap in orgasm could be the idea that traditional heteronormative sexual scripts seem to grant men more agency than women, encouraging sexual acts that are more likely to produce orgasms in men (such as penile–vaginal intercourse) (Blair et al., 2017). In addition, the fact that the dimensions where women score higher than men are the ones related to emotions and intimacy is consistent with traditional sexual scripts where women are typically depicted as sexual gatekeepers who prioritize emotional closeness and fidelity. On the other hand, men scored higher in the rewarding dimension, also congruent with traditional sexual scripts where they seek a more physical aspect of sex (Masters et al., 2013). Herein, a dichotomous, antagonistic paradigm of heterosexuality is produced by the confluence of the opposing discourses in which men are pursuing subjects, while women are passive objects (Tolman, 2006). According to this perspective, female sexuality does not exist unless it results from emotional closeness and commitment to a relationship (Masters et al., 2013). Also, women may have higher evaluations when tested in research settings because they may have lower aspirations for sexual satisfaction (McClelland, 2010).

Traditionally, studies on SOE have been conducted on heterosexual people and in the context of sexual relationships (Arcos-Romero & Sierra, 2018, 2019, 2020; Arcos-Romero et al., 2018, 2019; Mah & Binik, 2001). To analyze the SOE in non-majority sexual orientations, this study included bisexual and gay people, expecting that as postulated in H4, heterosexual people would present higher scores (Frederick et al., 2018; Garcia et al., 2014). Our results showed that heterosexual, bisexual, and gay people differ on two dimensions of the solitary masturbation context (Affective and Sensory) and two dimensions in the sexual relationships context (Sensory and Rewards), partially confirming H4. The intensity of the SOE was always higher for heterosexual people than gay people, which clearly shows the need to consider sexual orientation when conducting studies on SOE, and that there were more differences between heterosexual people and gay people than between heterosexual and bisexual people. The fact that gay people reported lower SOE intensity than heterosexual and bisexual people specifically in the dimensions more related to physical experiences could be because people with same-sex partners tend to place less emphasis on the consequences, instead concentrating on the process or development of the sexual relationship rather than its outcome (Mangas et al., 2022). This may be supported by findings that suggest that same-sex couples exhibit higher levels of emotional closeness than heterosexual couples (Spitalnick & McNair, 2005), which may cause them to place a higher priority on the emotional aspects of a relationship (Mangas et al., 2022). Research also shows that queer women prioritize non-genital sexual acts like kissing, snuggling, and hugging even though orgasm is less likely to occur because of them alone (Garnets & Peplau, 2006) and even do not mention orgasm at all when describing their best sexual encounters (Chatterji et al., 2017).

Many studies conducted among gay population focus on a binary conception of sexual orientation, in which same-sex and other-sex attraction are presented as the only categories (Bradford, 2004). Because of this, people who identify as bisexual experience a unique form of stigmatization and discrimination called “biphobia” (Bradford, 2004), which stems from both the heteronormative society and LGBTIQ+ community, thus experiencing double discrimination (Brewster & Moradi, 2010; Mitchell et al., 2014). Currently, there is no information regarding the SOE of this group. In our study, we observed that bisexual people present similar scores to heterosexual people, surpassing scores of gay people in the Affective and Sensory dimensions of the solitary masturbation context, and in the Sensory dimension of the sexual relationships context. However, in the Rewards dimension of orgasm, in the sexual relationships context, they presented lower scores than heterosexual people. Considering that bisexuality is a minority orientation and is more invisible than a gay orientation, this finding could be related to the minority stress theory (Meyer, 1995), in which internalized homophobia is included as one of the processes that compose it (Meyer, 2003). However, it is not currently possible to confirm this relation because of the scarcity of data on aspects of bisexual people’s sexuality. Finally, in the remaining dimensions (Affective in the sexual relationships context, Intimacy in both contexts, and Rewards in the solitary masturbation context), no significant differences were found according to sexual orientation. Thus, we conclude that the differences by orientation in SOE are not generalized but dependent on the context and dimension studied.

Limitations and Future Research Directions

One limitation of this study was that the sample was collected using a convenience non-probability sampling technique in an online format. In addition, for bisexual people when answering the ORS, the gender of the sexual partner with whom they had the orgasm they were rating was not asked, which would have been an interesting addition. Another limitation is that no information was asked about how orgasm was obtained, which would also have added an interesting nuance. Finally, the use of the Kinsey scale to measure sexual orientation is a limitation since it reduces sexual orientation to a purely behavior matter. In this regard, bisexuality was not considered as all the responses correspondent with plurisexual orientations, but only a subset limited to the responses 3 (Predominantly heterosexual, but more than incidentally homosexual), 4 (Bisexual), and 5 (Predominantly homosexual, but more than incidentally heterosexual).

Future research should consider the influence of gender roles and attitudes toward sexual gender norms to understand and explain the processes underlying the differences between men and women in the SOE and across contexts. It should also examine and identify the factors that may be causing lower scores of SOE of people with a minority sexual orientation, which will allow the implementation of more effective programs to promote the sexual health of individuals regardless of sexual orientation (Garcia et al., 2014). Likewise, it is necessary to keep in mind that addressing dysfunctions or problems related to any aspect of orgasm should be framed considering an approach focusing on both the gender and sexual orientation of the person.