Monday, September 9, 2019

Social Misfit or Normal Development? Students Who Do Not Date have good social skills and low depression, same suicidal ideations

Social Misfit or Normal Development? Students Who Do Not Date. Brooke Douglas, Pamela Orpinas. Journal of School Health, September 4 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/josh.12818

ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Prior research identified 4 distinct dating trajectories from 6th to 12th grade: Low, Increasing, High Middle School, and Frequent. The purpose of this study was to examine whether 10th graders in the Low dating group differed on emotional, interpersonal, and adaptive skills from youth in the other trajectories.

METHODS: The sample consisted of 594 10th graders. We compared the 4 dating groups using teacher ratings (social skills, leadership, depression) and student self‐reports (positive relationships with friends, at home, and at school; depression, suicidal ideation). To compare scores by dating trajectory, we used chi‐square test and analysis of variance.

RESULTS: Students in the Low dating group had significantly higher teacher ratings of social skills and leadership, and lower ratings of depression compared to the other groups. Self‐reports of positive relationships did not differ by dating groups. Self‐reported depression was significantly lower in the Low dating group, but suicidal ideations did not differ.

CONCLUSION: Adolescents who were not in a romantic relationship had good social skills and low depression, and fared better or equal to peers who dated. These results refute the notion that non‐daters are maladjusted. Health promotion interventions in schools should include non‐dating as one option of healthy development.

Based on a large number of studies with US participants & small sample sizes, the dominant view in social psychology holds that high-status actors behave less prosocial & more unethical; not reproducible

Social Status, Altruistic Giving and Reciprocity: Results of a Quasi-Experiment with Subjects from the USA. Andreas Tutić, Ulf Liebe. Zeitschrift für Soziologie, Volume 48, Issue 3, Aug 7 2019, https://doi.org/10.1515/zfsoz-2019-0014

Abstract: In empirical social research, there is mixed evidence regarding the interplay of social status and prosocial behavior. Based on a large number of studies with subjects from the USA and small sample sizes, the dominant view in social psychology holds that high-status actors behave less prosocial and more unethical than low-status actors. Sociological studies with subjects from Europe support the opposite conclusion. In our study, 1003 subjects from the USA played three types of dictator games, which tap three different forms of prosocial behavior, i. e. altruistic giving and direct as well as indirect reciprocity. We consistently find that high-status actors make higher donations in dictator games than low-status actors. At the same our findings indicate that high-status actors tend towards direct reciprocity whereas low-status actors tend towards indirect reciprocity.

Keywords: Dictator Games; Exchange Relationships; Communal Relationships; Interaction Effect

15 years of data on all felony sex offenders sentenced in a single state: Male sex offenders are more likely to be sentenced to prison, and given longer terms, than females, regardless of crime severity and the victim being a minor

The Gender Gap in Sex Offender Punishment. Ryan T. Shields, Joshua C. Cochran. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, May 31 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10940-019-09416-x

Abstract
Objectives: This paper tests theoretical arguments that suggest court actors hold gendered views of sex offenders that result in a gender gap in sex offender punishment, where women who commit sexual offenses are treated more leniently than their male counterparts.

Methods: We test this argument with precision matching analyses using 15 years of data on all felony sex offenders sentenced in a single state.

Results: Results indicate that gender disparities in sex offender sentencing exist and are pervasive across sex offense types. Specifically, male sex offenders are more likely to be sentenced to prison, and given longer terms, than female sex offenders. Findings are similar across sex offense severity and whether the offense involved a minor victim.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that female sex offenders are treated more leniently than their matched male counterparts, even in instances of more serious sex offenses and those involving minor victims. Findings support theoretical arguments that contend that court decision-making is influenced by legally-irrelevant characteristics and raise questions about the source of gendered views of sex offenders and their effects on punishment approaches. Findings also raise questions about the virtue of get-tough sentencing policies that provide leeway for such dramatic variation across different groups of people.

Keywords: Gender Punishment Sentencing Sex offender

Check also Douglass, Melanie Dawn, D'Aguanno, Sofia and Jones, Sophie (2019) Women as Active Agents: Female Perpetrators of Sexual Harassment and Domestic Abuse. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences. (In Press). https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/09/a-small-but-not-insignificant.html

From 2018... To Control or Be Controlled: Predicting Types of Offending in a Corporate Environment Using Control-Balance Theory

To Control or Be Controlled: Predicting Types of Offending in a Corporate Environment Using Control-Balance Theory. Donald E. Hunt, Volkan Topalli. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, September 2019, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp 435–464. August 24 2018. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10940-018-9390-0

Abstract
Introduction: This study seeks to determine the extent to which Tittle’s control balance (CB) theory (CBT: 1995) accurately predicts different types of deviance within a corporate setting (in this case, a financial services corporation). CB theory contends that deviance is the result of a control imbalance between the amount of control a person exerts and the amount to which they are subject. Control deficits result in repressive deviance (including most types of predatory crime). Control surpluses result in autonomous deviance (including many types of white collar offending).

Method: We exploit a unique dataset consisting of the internal investigations of fraud conducted by a large United States-based financial services company to explore these concepts in the corporate sales environment.

Results: Consistent with the theory, we find that a control surplus predicts certain autonomous deviance while a control deficit explained some repressive forms of criminality. Results also indicate that a control imbalance is incremental in nature and not simply a balanced/non-balanced condition. Further discussion revolves around implications, limitations, and future research.

Keywords: Control-balance theory Corporate deviance White collar crime

Jonathan Haidt proposed innate, universally observable moral intuitions (moral foundations); care and fairness are primarily due to genetic influences (73 and 51pct)

The Study of Personality Architecture and Dynamics (SPeADy): A Longitudinal and Extended Twin Family Study. Christian Kandler, Angelika Penner, Julia Richter & Alexandra Zapko-Willmes. Twin Research and Human Genetics, September 9 2019. https://doi.org/10.1017/thg.2019.62

Abstract: The Study of Personality Architecture and Dynamics (SPeADy) is a German research project that aims to investigate the sources of interindividual differences in intraindividual personality development. The main focus lies in the dynamic interplay between more stable core characteristics and more environmentally malleable surface characteristics, as well as between personality and life experiences over time. SPeADy includes a twin family study encompassing data from 1962 individuals (age: 14–94) of 682 families, including 570 complete twin pairs (plus 1 triplet set), 327 parents, 236 spouses and 145 children of twins. Data collection started in 2016 and data from the first wave are currently obtainable as open source. Available data comprise a broad range of personality variables, such as personality trait constructs, motives, interests, values, moral foundations, religiosity and self-related concepts. For the currently ongoing second wave of data collection, we added retrospective reports on major life events. Special features of this genetically informative study are the extended twin family data and its longitudinal design. Three assessment waves in 2 years’ intervals are planned until 2022. In this article, we briefly describe the design and contents of the SPeADy twin family study as well as some recent findings, future plans and open science issues.

Echo chambers and polarisation in the German federal election 2017: Our findings suggest that there is no echo chamber in political communication on Facebook in Germany

Echo chambers and polarisation in the German federal election 2017. Wolf J. Schünemann, Stefan Steiger, Fritz Kliche. Panel "Political Organisations and the Digital", ECPR General Conference, August 2018, Hamburg. https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal/2df1d48e-c319-456f-89ef-4ad9d5256546.pdf

Abstract: This paper examines the phenomenon of polarisation and radicalisation and in particular tests the echo chamber hypothesis for explaining these prominently discussed features of current political communication. To investigate these phenomena, we draw on a sample of 1.3 million posts and comments from public Facebook profiles of German political parties. The data was collected during the federal election campaign in 2017 and therefore a phase of heightened political debate. In order to identify potential echo chambers we built on selective exposure theory and therefore focused on practices of information sharing on respective profiles. Specifically, we investigated the sharing of links (URLs) and tried to identify, whether users of different party pages were referring to different (more reassuring) sources. Focusing on polarisation we employed different corpus linguistic tools such as topic modelling, cluster and keyword analysis in order to identify differences in respective discourses. While being tentative, our findings suggest that there is no echo chamber in political communication on Facebook in Germany. Instead of distinct sets of different sources, we found that all parties refer to more or less the same leading media outlets. We found only few sources that could be clearly identified as being partisan.With regard to polarisation, we found that there is a clear distinction regarding the tonality of discourse on the different profiles. Uncivil language featured very prominently on the profile of the new German right-wing populist party (AfD).

Americans: Whereas collective memories showed positivity biases, there was a negativity bias in collective future thought, or decline in Americans’ representations of their nation across time, regardless of political orientation

How we have fallen: implicit trajectories in collective temporal thought. Jeremy K. Yamashiro & Henry L. Roediger III. Memory, Volume 27, 2019 - Issue 8, Pages 1158-1166. https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2019.1635161

ABSTRACT: Memory may play a critical role in the ability to imagine events in the future. While most work on this relation has concerned episodic memory and simulated episodic events in the future, the current study examines how collective memories relate to imagination for the collective future. Two thousand American participants provided events for (1) America’s origins, (2) normative events that all Americans should remember, and (3) events in America’s future. Each event was rated for emotional valence. Whereas collective memories – particularly origin events – showed pronounced positivity biases, there was a negativity bias in collective future thought, indicating an implicit trajectory of decline in Americans’ representations of their nation across time. Imagination for the social future may not be simulated based on the template of collective memories, but may rather relate to the past in a way that is mediated by cultural narrative schemata.

KEYWORDS: Collective memory, collective future thought, national narratives, collective temporal thought, sociocultural psychology

Implicit trajectories in collective temporal thought

Self-enhancement, righteous anger, and moral grandiosity

Self-enhancement, righteous anger, and moral grandiosity. Jeffrey D. Green, Constantine Sedikides, Daryl R. Van Tongeren, Anna M. C. Behler & Jessica M. Barber. Self and Identity, Volume 18, 2019 - Issue 2, Pages 201-216. https://doi.org/10.1080/15298868.2017.1419504

Abstract: Do people self-enhance by dwelling in righteous anger in an effort to preserve their self-views as pillars of morality? We addressed this question in two experiments. Participants read a story about an injustice (experiencing righteous anger) or grocery shopping (experiencing neutral emotion), indicated their interest in reading injustice-relevant or happiness-relevant newspaper articles, and rated themselves on moral and agentic traits. Participants who experienced righteous anger (vs. neutral emotion) maintained their anger (i.e., exhibited stronger interest in reading injustice- than happiness-relevant articles) and rated themselves more positively on moral, but not on agentic, traits. Furthermore, anger maintenance mediated the effect of righteous anger on moral grandiosity. The findings illustrate tactical self-enhancement: the instrumental use of one’s negative emotions for self-enhancement purposes.

Keywords: Self-enhancement, anger, moral grandiosity, self-views, emotion regulation

Sunday, September 8, 2019

The impact of social status on the derogation of ideological opponents: Support for prediction derived from hierometer theory that people with higher status would derogate ideological opponents less (evaluate them more charitably)

Gregg, A. P., Mahadevan, N., & Sedikides, C. (in press). Taking the high ground: The impact of social status on the derogation of ideological opponents. Social Cognition. https://pure.roehampton.ac.uk/portal/files/805606/Gregg_Mahadevan_Sedikides_in_press_Social_Cognition_002_.pdf

Abstract: People tend to derogate their ideological opponents. But how does social status affect this tendency? We tested a prediction derived from hierometer theory that people with higher status would derogate ideological opponents less (i.e., evaluate them more charitably). We further predicted that greater rhetoric handling prowess (RHP:feeling more confident and less intimidated while arguing) would mediate the effect. Study 1 established a link between higher status and lesser opponent derogation correlationally. Study 2 did so experimentally. Using a scale to assess RHP developed and validated in Study 3, Study 4 established that RHP statistically mediated the correlational link between status and derogation. In Study5, experimentally manipulating status affected RHP as predicted. However, in Study 6, experimentally manipulating RHP did not affect opponent derogation as predicted. Thus, our findings were substantially, but not entirely, consistent with our theoretically-derived predictions. Implications for hierometer theory, and related theoretical approaches, are considered.

Keywords: derogation, status, social status, rhetoric, hierometer theory

Infectious Disease Prevalence, Not Race Exposure, Predicts Both Implicit and Explicit Racial Prejudice Across the US

Infectious Disease Prevalence, Not Race Exposure, Predicts Both Implicit and Explicit Racial Prejudice Across the United States. Brian A. O’Shea et al. Social Psychological and Personality Science, July 15, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550619862319

Abstract: What factors increase racial prejudice? Across the United States, increased exposure to Black Americans has been hypothesized to increase White Americans’ prejudicial attitudes toward Black Americans. Here we test an alternative explanation: People living in regions with higher infectious disease rates have a greater tendency to avoid out-groups because such avoidance reduces their perceived likelihood of contracting illnesses. Consistent with this parasite-stress hypothesis, we show that both White and Black individuals (N > 77,000) living in U.S. states in which disease rates are higher display increased implicit (automatic) and explicit (conscious) racial prejudice. These results survived the inclusion of several individual- and state-level controls previously used to explain variability in prejudice. Furthermore, showing disease-related primes to White individuals with strong germ aversion increased their explicit, but not implicit, anti-Black/pro-White prejudice. Domestic out-groups, not just foreigners, may therefore experience increased overt forms of prejudice when disease rates are high.

Keywords: parasite-stress theory, behavioral immune system, implicit association test, racial prejudice, Bayesian racism

Healthy personality, that of a fully functioning person: Around 30pct is additive genetic; the rest is non-shared environmental effects; shared environment has almost null effect

Bleidorn, W., Hopwood, C. J., Ackerman, R. A., Witt, E. A., Kandler, C., Riemann, R., . . . Donnellan, M. B. (2019). The healthy personality from a basic trait perspective. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000231

Abstract: What basic personality traits characterize the psychologically healthy individual? The purpose of this article was to address this question by generating an expert-consensus model of the healthy person in the context of the 30 facets (and 5 domains) of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (Costa & McCrae, 1992) system of traits. In a first set of studies, we found that the healthy personality can be described, with a high level of agreement, in terms of the 30 facets of the NEO-PI-R. High levels of openness to feelings, positive emotions, and straightforwardness, together with low levels on facets of neuroticism, were particularly indicative of healthy personality functioning. The expert-generated healthy personality profile was negatively correlated with profiles of pathological personality functioning and positively correlated with normative personality functioning. In a second set of studies, we matched the NEO-PI-R profiles of over 3,000 individuals from 7 different samples with the expert-generated healthy prototype to yield a healthy personality index. This index was characterized by good retest reliability and cross-rater agreement, high rank-order stability, and substantial heritability. Individuals with high scores on the healthy personality index were psychologically well-adjusted, had high self-esteem, good self-regulatory skills, an optimistic outlook on the world, and a clear and stable self-view. These individuals were low in aggression and meanness, unlikely to exploit others, and were relatively immune to stress and self-sufficient. We discuss the results in the light of their implications for both research and theory on healthy personality functioning.

Different languages, similar encoding efficiency: Comparable information rates across the human communicative niche

Different languages, similar encoding efficiency: Comparable information rates across the human communicative niche. Christophe Coupé, Yoon Oh, Dan Dediu & François Pellegrino. Science Advances, Sep 4 2019, Vol. 5, no. 9, eaaw2594. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw2594

Abstract: Language is universal, but it has few indisputably universal characteristics, with cross-linguistic variation being the norm. For example, languages differ greatly in the number of syllables they allow, resulting in large variation in the Shannon information per syllable. Nevertheless, all natural languages allow their speakers to efficiently encode and transmit information. We show here, using quantitative methods on a large cross-linguistic corpus of 17 languages, that the coupling between language-level (information per syllable) and speaker-level (speech rate) properties results in languages encoding similar information rates (~39 bits/s) despite wide differences in each property individually: Languages are more similar in information rates than in Shannon information or speech rate. These findings highlight the intimate feedback loops between languages’ structural properties and their speakers’ neurocognition and biology under communicative pressures. Thus, language is the product of a multiscale communicative niche construction process at the intersection of biology, environment, and culture.

Mood differed as a function of exposure to various built and natural environments; positive mood was higher for pedestrians and for bicyclists; errand trips were associated with more negative mood

How transport modes, the built and natural environments, and activities are associated with mood: A GPS smartphone app study. Trevin E. Glasgow et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology, September 5 2019, 101345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2019.101345

Highlights
•  Experience sampling methodology used a phone app to measure mood during travel.
•  Mood differed as a function of exposure to various built and natural environments.
•  Positive mood was higher for pedestrians and for bicyclists.
•  Interpersonal conversation during trips was associated with more positive mood.
•  Errand trips were associated with more negative mood compared to other trips.

Abstract: Transportation-related mood studies relying on retrospective surveys incur recall bias, given the transient state of mood. Additionally, previous research in this domain has been limited to a single time-point measurement of mood, making it impossible to evaluate within-person variation. This study applied experience sampling methodology (ESM) to explore how mood during travel relates to transport mode, activities, and the built and natural environments. A smartphone application was employed to overcome the limitations of prior studies in this domain. Participants tracked their trips for at least one week and completed mood surveys after each trip. After accounting for within-person variation, active travel correlated with more positive mood than motorized travel, and mood was more positive when individuals talked to others during their trips. However, mood was more negative when completing errand trips as compared to other types of trips. Mood was lower when individuals travelled through places with a higher Walk Score®, but higher when individuals travelled through natural environments. All participants felt less safe when bicycling. This field study was one of the first to consider within-person differences in mood during travel as a function of various environmental and transportation characteristics. The research demonstrated how information on mood could be used to promote sustainable transportation (e.g., walking, bicycling), as well as how urban transportation infrastructure could be designed to enhance mental well-being.

Keywords: affectemotionsatisfactionwalkabilitytravel-based multitaskingtravel behavioractivity space

Multiple meta-analyses on key mental disorders yield a picture of limited benefits for psycho- & pharmacotherapy; the overall impression is that a dead end has been reached

Leichsenring F, Steinert C, Ioannidis JPA (2019). Toward a paradigm shift in treatment and research of mental disorders. Psychological Medicine 1–7, August 7 2019. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291719002265

Overall, while a certain proportion of patients (who cannot be identified in advance) does benefit from available treatments, most patients do not remit and at least half of the patients do not respond to the available treatments (Cuijpers et al., 2014; Leucht, 2014; Liet al., 2017; Springer et al., 2018). Thus, results for the efficacy of psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy are sobering, indicating only a small incremental gain over TAU or placebo and limited rates for remission and response. As noted above, this (limited) incremental gain needs to be balanced against the efforts, costs, and side effects associated with psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy. The situation is aggravated by the numerous concerns mentioned above (e.g. biases, inflated effect sizes, low rates of replication, lack of long-term studies, stagnating or decreasing effect sizes) raising serious doubts about the available evidence.

Each mental disorder raises its own host of issues. However, recent evidence across multiple meta-analyses on key mental disorders provides an overarching picture of limited benefits for both psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy. Some differences for specific disorders are not strong enough to weaken the overall impression that a dead end has been reached in the treatment of mental disorders.

Female mice housed with castrated males have higher stress levels, & actively avoid such housing partners when provided with a refuge; seem to actively avoid males with low levels of testosterone

Female mice seek refuge from castrated males, but not intact or vasectomized males, mitigating a socially-induced glucocorticoid response. Teagan J. Gale, Michael G. Garratt, Robert C. Brooks. Physiology & Behavior, September 7 2019, 112678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physbeh.2019.112678

Highlights
•  Female mice housed with castrated males have higher stress levels.
•  Female mice housed with castrated males actively avoid their housing partner when provided with a refuge.
•  We suggest that females actively avoid males with low levels of testosterone, and that their surrounding social partners can affect their physiology.

Abstract: Sexual conflict may be manifested during social interactions, shaping the costs of reproduction in sexually reproducing species. This conflict, and the physical necessity of intromission, can intensify the already costly nature of reproduction for female mammals. To identify and partition the costs that males inflict on females during mating and reproduction, we paired female mice with either other females or castrated, vasectomised, or intact (sham-vasectomised) males, thus manipulating exposure to social mating behavior and costs arising from fertilization. We also provided females with refuges where males could not enter, to test whether females show avoidance or attraction to males of different gonadal status expected to exhibit different levels of social behavior. We found that females paired with vasectomised and castrated males spent the most time in their refuge. Females housed with castrated males also had increased glucocorticoid levels, an effect that was mitigated when females could retreat from these males to a refuge. This suggests that females actively refuge from castrated males, and that housing with such males is sufficient to generate an increased glucocorticoid response. Our results show that females choose to refuge from males depending on the partner’s gonadal status, choices that are linked to social induced stress responses but not exposure to male mating behaviour.

Keywords: RefugeStressCosts of reproductionCastration


Most people aim to be about as morally good as their peers—not especially better, not especially worse; we notice the typical behavior of our peers, then calibrate toward so-so

Aiming for Moral Mediocrity. Eric Schwitzgebel. Res Philosophica, Volume 96, Issue 3, July 2019, Pages 347-368. DOI: 10.11612/resphil.1806

Abstract: Most people aim to be about as morally good as their peers—not especially better, not especially worse. We do not aim to be good, or non-bad, or to act permissibly rather than impermissibly, by fixed moral standards. Rather, we notice the typical behavior of our peers, then calibrate toward so-so. This is a somewhat bad way to be, but it’s not a terribly bad way to be. We are somewhat morally criticizable for having low moral ambitions. Typical arguments defending the moral acceptability of low moral ambitions—the So-What-If-I’m-Not-a-Saint Excuse, the Fairness Objection, the Happy Coincidence Defense, and the claim that you’re already in The-Most-You-Can-Do Sweet Spot—do not survive critical scrutiny.


Part One: The Empirical Thesis

2. Following the Moral Crowd.

Robert B. Cialdini and colloborators went to Arizona’s Petrified Forest National Park (Cialdini, Demaine, Sagarin, Barrett, Rhoads, and Winter 2006).  The park had been losing about a ton of petrified wood per month, mostly stolen in small amounts by casual visitors.  Cialdini and collaborators posted four different signs intended to discourage theft, rotating their placement at the heads of different paths.  Two signs were explicit injunctions: (A.) “Please don’t remove petrified wood from the park” (with a picture of a visitor stealing wood, crossed by a red circle and bar) and (B.) “Please leave petrified wood in the park” (with a picture of a visitor admiring and photographing a piece of wood).  Two signs were descriptive: (C.) “Many past visitors have removed the petrified wood from the park, changing the state of the Petrified Forest” (with pictures of three visitors taking wood) and (D.) “The vast majority of past visitors have left the petrified wood in the park, preserving the natural state of the Petrified Forest” (with pictures of three visitors admiring and photographing the petrified wood).  Cialdini and collaborators then noted how much wood the visitors took from the paths headed by the different signs.  Rates of theft were lowest (1.7%) when visitors were explicitly enjoined not to take wood (Condition A).  Rates of theft were highest (8.0%) when visitors were told that many past visitors have removed wood (Condition C).  Being told that many visitors have removed wood might even have increased the rates of theft, which were estimated normally to be 1-4% of visitors (Roggenbuck, Widner, and Stratton 1997).

Part Two: The Normative Thesis

7. The Moral Mediocrity of Being Morally Mediocre.

My normative thesis is that it’s morally mediocre to aim to be morally mediocre.  Or to phrase it in a less tautologous-sounding way: It’s somewhat bad but also somewhat good to try to calibrate yourself so that you behave in ways that are overall morally similar to your peers.

“Mediocre” has a negative connotation in ordinary English.  Not only does it mean somewhere in the ballpark of average or ordinary, but (in contrast with the less loaded word “average”) “mediocre” also implies that the thing in question is somewhat bad.  And yet, the mediocre is not horrible, and being mediocre is compatible with having some redeeming features – with being in some respects good.  Mediocre coffee is good enough for me, most of the time.  Mediocre students mostly pass their classes and get their degrees.  Aiming for moral mediocrity is like aiming to be a moral B-minus student or a donut shop moral drip blend.

The simplest opposing views are that it’s perfectly fine to aim to be about as morally good as your peers and that it is horrible to aim to be about as morally good (or rather, as morally bad) as your peers.

I won’t criticize the latter view at length.  I don’t think many of us regard our peers as morally horrible.  Some people might think that most of humanity is morally horrible, apart from their valued in-group of friends or coreligionists – but then they probably treat that in-group as the peers toward whose behavior they morally calibrate.  Others might think that even their peers, perhaps especially their peers, are morally horrible, on the grounds that there’s something morally horrible about our shared lifestyle, such as its luxuriousness in the face of global poverty.  I will not address such views here.  Still others might just be ordinary curmudgeons who see the worst in people.  This too, is difficult to address directly.  Let me note that people do often lend a helping hand to strangers for no obvious benefit; treat their fellows kindly; share, sacrifice, and maintain deep friendships; and take principled stands against injustice.  Following the moral crowd can be good: When others act with kindness and integrity, that inspires us to do the same.  Attempting to compensate for having acted badly can also be good; the memory of guilt can motivate improvement.  We’re not horrible, only mediocre!

Against the view that it’s perfectly fine to aim to behave about as morally well as your peers, I offer first, your peers.  (I’m assuming that your peers are typically middle- to upper-class members of a mainstream Anglophone culture.  If your peers are Nazi death camp guards or saints in Heaven, the normative assessment might be different.)  They fail to reply to your important emails.  They shirk their duties and neglect their promises.  They are rude and grumpy for no good reason.  They have annoying dogs, loud parties, bad driving habits, and an unjustified sense of entitlement.  They make you wait then concoct some glib excuse.  They form obnoxious opinions on too little information and then vote for horrible things.  More seriously, perhaps, our peers participate in and support institutions and practices that casually ruin people’s lives by denying them reasonable and necessary health care, by cruelly guarding unearned privilege, and by perpetuating exploitative systems.  In all of these small and sometimes large ways, our peers behave badly, and we really ought to try to be better than that.

Second, we are, all of us, shot through with bigotry and bias – bias based on race, sex, disability, beauty, age, class, political opinion, profession, prestige, nationality, and cultural background.  We are not all biased in all respects; but we are all significantly biased in some respects.  The range of biases based on disability in particular is difficult to avoid, since disability is so various and often experienced as saliently annoying to witness or deal with (Corrigan 2014).  Bias toward the conventionally physically beautiful, in matters on which physical beauty ought to have no bearing, is also pervasive and substantial, across a wide range of social measures (Langlois, Kalakanis, Rubenstein, Larson, Hallam, and Smoot 2000).  We ought to aim for better.

Third, even if we aren’t morally horrible for living middle-class lifestyles, history might not judge us so kindly.  Our typical lifestyles harm the environment, by which we collectively contribute to the probable death and immiseration of many millions of future people.  Arguably, also, most of us ought to give much more to charitable causes, local or global, in time or in money, than we do, given our relative privilege and luxury.  And most of us eat meat – which most U.S. ethicists think is morally bad.  We purchase consumer goods from companies we know or ought to know engage in bad practices.  It’s contentious how bad all this is, and my overall argument does not depend essentially on any of the ideas in this paragraph, but if this perspective is even close to correct, every normal middle-class person in our society is morally criticizable for a wide range of actions every day.  (Peter Singer [1972, 1975/2009] is probably the best-known philosophical advocate of this variety of highly morally demanding view.)

It is not, therefore, perfectly fine to aim to be morally mediocre.  I will now consider four lines of reasoning by which you might hope to wiggle out of this somewhat negative conclusion.



8. The So-What-If-I’m-Not-a-Saint Excuse.

People sometimes respond to my moral mediocrity thesis by acknowledging that, yes, they aren’t aiming for sainthood – but that’s not so bad.  Sainthood is such a high standard!  Ordinary people can’t really be blamed for falling short of that.  Philosopher advocates of the So-What-If-I’m-Not-a-Saint Excuse sometimes appeal to Susan Wolf’s (1982) classic argument that it’s reasonable not to want to be morally perfect, with all the sacrifices that moral perfection seems to require.

I’m inclined to agree with Wolf that morality is highly demanding and that when the demands of morality conflict with other deeply held values it’s often reasonable to act immorally (see also Slote 1983; Williams 1985; Foot 2002; Dorsey 2016).  But to use the possibly excessive demands of sainthood as an excuse for being a mediocre member of a blameworthy crowd is to pitch a false dichotomy, as if the only choice were between mediocrity and huge self-sacrifice.  Moral improvement needn’t require crushing yourself.  Most of us could improve quite a bit with no devastating effect on our personalities or life projects.  We could be somewhat more generous with our time, and less grumpy.  We could give more to charity, tweak our lifestyles to better protect the environment, and be a little more reliable in executing our responsibilities.  We could be better neighbors and sons- or daughters-in-law.  We could more vividly speak against injustice.  Of course we could.  None of these things require sainthood or huge sacrifice; and moral improvement doesn’t require that you do all of them.  We could aim for an imperfect-but-excellent A or A-minus, even if we give up on A+.  Among us walk morally admirable non-saints who achieve peer-relative moral excellence without leading bland or miserable lives.  You probably know a few; be more like them.  It is easy to think of ways in which we could act morally better.  We simply prefer not to do these things.

You can self-consciously and reasonably choose moral mediocrity, just like you can self-consciously and reasonably choose to buy mediocre coffee (if the excellent coffee is too expensive) and just like you can self-consciously and reasonably choose to be a mediocre student (“hey, Cs get degrees, I’ve got other priorities!”).  My suggestion is only this: If this speaks to your condition, acknowledge that fact and accept that you are thereby somewhat morally blameworthy.

Males are born slightly in excess of females & many factors have been shown to influence the sex ratio at birth; 9 months after Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Day & Valentine's Day there are more males

The effects of Thanksgiving, Christmas and Valentine's Day on the sex ratio at birth in the United States, 2003–2015. Lorna Zammit, Victor Grech. Early Human Development, September 7 2019, 104867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2019.104867

Abstract
Introduction: Males are born slightly in excess of females and many factors have been shown to influence M/F, the sex ratio at birth. Seasonality has also been shown to impinge on M/F. This study was carried out in order to ascertain whether Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Day and Valentine's Day had any influence on M/F in the United States population, nine months later.
Methods: Births by ethnicity, region and sex were obtained from the website of the Centres for Disease Control. Analyses were applied to seasonally adjusted time series and non-seasonally adjusted series. A seasonally adjusted indirect result was calculated for the sex ratio.
Results: This paper studied 53,105,069 live births for 2003–2015 (27,178,968 males, 25,926,101 females). M/F rises exceeding 90th and 95th percentiles were strongest for the seasonally adjusted series for all births in regions: South (CENS-R3), West (CENS-R4) and the time series All-regions_All-race. When comparing unadjusted and seasonally adjusted series, a similar pattern was observed in the regions Northeast and Midwest for American Indian or Alaska Native and Asian or Pacific Islander. A similar pattern was observed for the region Midwest for the ethnic group White.
Discussion: M/F rose above the 90th percentile in all the series and occasionally above the 95th percentile. Increased periconceptual coital rates increases M/F and this study thus lends further credence to the hypothesis that coital rates around the time of conception causally influences the sex ratio of subsequent births nine months later, possibly due to a hormonal mechanism.

Keywords: Sex ratioInfant, newbornBirth rate/*trendsSeasonality

Saturday, September 7, 2019

Functional and Structural Brain Correlates of Socioeconomic Status

Functional and Structural Brain Correlates of Socioeconomic Status. Zachary A Yaple, Rongjun Yu. Cerebral Cortex, bhz080, May 2 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhz080

Abstract: Socioeconomic status (SES) is a multidimensional construct that includes not only measures of material wealth, but also education, social prestige, and neighborhood quality. Socioeconomic correlates between wealth and cognitive functions have been well established in behavioral studies. However, functional and structural brain correlates of SES remain unclear. Here, we sought to uncover the most likely neural regions to be affected by low SES, specifically associated with age. Using effect size–seed-based d Mapping, we compiled studies that examined individuals with low SES and performed functional magnetic resonance imaging and voxel-based morphometry meta-analyses. The results revealed that as from early to late age, individuals exposed to low SES are less likely to have sustained executive network activity yet a greater likelihood to enhanced activity within reward-related regions. A similar activity was shown for gray matter volume across early to older age. These findings provide the first quantitative integration of neuroimaging results pertaining to the neural basis of SES. Hypoactivation of the executive network and hyperactivation of the reward network in low SES individuals may support the scarcity hypothesis and animal models of the effects of early adversity.

Keywords: Socioeconomic status, Seed-based d mapping, VBM, fMRI

In Sweden: No support for the idea that framing the affirmative action scenario as adding minority women compared to framing it as rejecting majority men would reduce feelings of resentment

Sinclair, Samantha, and Rickard Carlsson. 2019. “Reactions to Affirmative Action Policies in Hiring: Effects of Framing and Beneficiary Gender.” PsyArXiv. September 6. doi:10.31234/osf.io/34tnv

Abstract: Affirmative action policies aim to reduce gaps between social groups, yet they are often perceived negatively. The present research examined reactions to an organization’s preferential treatment policy based on gender, focusing on whether positive versus negative framing of the scenario and gender of the beneficiary matter for these reactions. The results of two preregistered experiments conducted in Sweden (N = 556) did not provide support for the hypothesis that framing the affirmative action scenario as adding minority women compared to framing it as rejecting majority men would produce more favorable perceptions and reduced feelings of resentment. Moreover, we found no support for the hypothesis that the effects of framing would be weaker in the case of male beneficiaries compared to female beneficiaries. However, we found clear support for the hypothesis that the policy was perceived more favorably when the beneficiary was female rather than male. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Claims about the health dangers of red meat are not only improbable in the light of our evolutionary history, they are far from being supported by robust scientific evidence

Should dietary guidelines recommend low red meat intake? Frédéric Leroy & Nathan Cofnas. Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, Sep 5 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/10408398.2019.1657063 

Abstract: Mainstream dietary recommendations now commonly advise people to minimize the intake of red meat for health and environmental reasons. Most recently, a major report issued by the EAT-Lancet Commission recommended a planetary reference diet mostly based on plants and with no or very low (14 g/d) consumption of red meat. We argue that claims about the health dangers of red meat are not only improbable in the light of our evolutionary history, they are far from being supported by robust scientific evidence.

Keywords: red meat, health, vegetarianism, veganism, dietary guidelines, disease

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6. Conclusions
Although meat has been a central component of the diet of our lineage for millions of years, some nutrition authorities—who often have close connections to animal rights activists or other forms of ideological vegetarianism, such as Seventh-Day Adventism (Banta et al., 2018)—are promoting the view that meat causes a host of health problems and has no redeeming value. We contend that a large part of the case against meat is based on cherry-picked evidence and low-quality observational studies. The bald claim that red meat is an “unhealthy food” (Willett et al., 2019) is wildly unsupported.

Based on misrepresentations of the state of the science, some organizations are attempting to influence policy makers to take action to reduce meat consumption. Simplification of complex science increases persuasive power but may also serve ideological purposes and lead to scientistic approaches. According to Mayes and Thompson (2015), manifestations of nutritional scientism in the context of biopolitics can have various ethical implications for “individual responsibility and freedom, concerning iatrogenic harm, and for well-being”. Well-meaning yet overemphasized and premature recommendations may eventually cause more damage than benefit, not only physiologically but also by unjustifiably holding individuals accountable for their health outcomes. We believe that a large reduction in meat consumption, such as has been advocated by the EAT-Lancet Commission (Willett et al., 2019), could produce serious harm. Meat has long been, and continues to be, a primary source of high-quality nutrition. The theory that it can be replaced with legumes and supplements is mere speculation. While diets high in meat have proved successful over the long history of our species, the benefits of vegetarian diets are far from being established, and its dangers have been largely ignored by those who have endorsed it prematurely on the basis of questionable evidence.

Check also Ben-Dor, Miki (2019) "How carnivorous are we? The implication for protein consumption," Journal of Evolution and Health: Vol. 3: Iss. 1, Article 10. https://doi.org/10.15310/2334-3591.1096 https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/03/although-we-are-undoubtedly-omnivores.html

From 2017... The Imaginary Intrasexual Competition: Advertisements Featuring Provocative Female Models Trigger Women to Engage in Indirect Aggression, as with real-life sexual rivals

From 2017... The Imaginary Intrasexual Competition: Advertisements Featuring Provocative Female Models Trigger Women to Engage in Indirect Aggression. Sylvie Borau, Jean-François Bonnefon. Journal of Business Ethics, June 2019, Volume 157, Issue 1, pp 45–63, July 20 2017. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-017-3643-y

Abstract: Recent research suggests that women react to idealized female models in advertising as they would react to real-life sexual rivals. Across four studies, we investigate the negative consequences of this imaginary competition on consumers’ mate-guarding jealousy, indirect aggression, and drive for thinness. A meta-analysis of studies 1–3 shows that women exposed to an idealized model report more mate-guarding jealousy and show increased indirect aggression (i.e., derogation and social exclusion), but do not report a higher desire for thinness. Study 4 replicates these findings and reveals that the main driver of aggression is the sexually provocative attitude of the model (a signal of a flirting behavior and of sexual availability), rather than her thin body size. The ethical implications of these findings for advertising are discussed in light of recent concerns about female bullying, online, and in the workplace.

Keywords: Advertising models Derogation Intrasexual competition Mate-guarding jealousy Provocative attitude Slut-shaming

Conscious thought comprises mental simulations that enable the person to imagine & respond to reflections on the past, anticipations about the future, & other nonpresent events

Masicampo, E. J., Luebber, F., & Baumeister, R. F. (2019). The influence of conscious thought is best observed over time. Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice, Sep 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/cns0000205

Abstract: The capacity for complex, conscious thought is arguably the human mind’s most defining feature. Nevertheless, the efficacy of consciousness has long been debated, with some arguing that consciousness is a feckless epiphenomenon or that its influence on behavior is trivial. We focus specifically on conscious thought, which appears to be a uniquely human capacity, rather than the more basic phenomenal consciousness that humans appear to share with other animals. We argue that the influence of conscious thought on behavior is profound, and that to detect this influence requires observing behavior across multiple events scattered across time. In our view, conscious thought is not the executor of behavior but rather serves as an input into an unconscious executive. Specifically, conscious thought comprises mental simulations that enable the person to imagine and respond to reflections on the past, anticipations about the future, and other nonpresent events. Thus, conscious thought should not be expected in most cases to influence behavior directly and in the current moment. Instead, we argue that conscious thought is for planning for the future, that conscious thought changes automatic responses slowly over time, and that accurate conscious reflections requires observation across multiple events. Therefore, to detect conscious thought’s influence requires tests with much broader time spans than is typical in extant research. We argue that an empirical approach that takes such a broad perspective is necessary for understanding fully how conscious thought guides behavior, makes decisions, and otherwise adapts the self to the complexities of human social life.

Friday, September 6, 2019

Longer fixations on body rather than face areas irrespective of participant gender; all participants looked longer at women’s than men’s bodies and at the faces of the opposite sex

Bolmont M, Bianchi-Demicheli F, Boisgontier MP, et al. The Woman’s Body (Not the Man’s One) Is Used to Evaluate Sexual Desire: An Eye-Tracking Study of Automatic Visual Attention. J Sex Med 2019;16:195–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsxm.2018.12.003

Abstract
Introduction: Vision of the human body has been shown to be key in eliciting sexual desire. However, whether the visual pattern characterizing sexual desire is different in women and men is still unclear.

Aim: To investigate the effect of gender on visual patterns triggered by an identical set of stimuli depicting attractive heterosexual couples.

Methods: Heterosexual women and men (n = 106) were tested on a picture-viewing task associated with eye tracking. The context of sexual desire was activated by asking the participant whether they perceived such desire while looking at sensual pictures of heterosexual couples. Data were analyzed using mixed-subject design analyses of variance.

Main Outcome Measure: Fixation durations were used to investigate visual patterns. 2 areas of interest were created to investigate visual patterns (face vs body area).

Results: Results showed longer fixations on body rather than face areas irrespective of participant gender. Moreover, all participants looked longer at women’s than men’s bodies and at the faces of the opposite sex.

Clinical Implications: These findings shed light on the automatic processes underlying sexual desire, which has the potential to improve the care of patients suffering from sexual disorders by optimizing interventions.

Strengths & Limitations: The strengths of this study are the use of an eye-tracking paradigm, the dissociation between 2 fixation areas (ie, face and body), and the use of an identical set of stimuli allowing an accurate between-gender comparison of the visual pattern. The limitations are the small sample size, the use of healthy heterosexual individuals, and the absence of measures of sexual arousal and genital response.

Conclusions: These findings confirm the association between the human body and sexual desire. They also reveal the unique attentional attractiveness of woman’s bodies across genders.

Key Words: Automatic AttentionEye TrackingGenderSexual DesireVisual Pattern

Check also Widman, D. R., Bennetti, M. K., & Anglemyer, R. (2019). Gaze patterns of sexually fluid women and men at nude females and males. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, Sep 2 2019, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/09/gaze-patterns-of-sexually-fluid-women.html

Sexual Performance Anxiety is one of the most prevalent sexual complaints & causes or maintains most common sexual dysfunction; no diagnosis is recognized for either gender; no treatments are well proven

Pyke RE. Sexual Performance Anxiety. J Sex Med 2019; XX:XXX–XXX, Aug 22 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sxmr.2019.07.001

Abstract
Introduction: Sexual performance anxiety (SPA) is one of the most prevalent sexual complaints; yet, no diagnosis is recognized for either gender. Thus, research into treatment has been minimal.

Aim: Review the prevalence of SPA and its relation to sexual dysfunctions and anxiety disorders. Compare SPA to (non-sexual) performance anxiety and social anxiety (PA/SA). Apply pharmacologic principles to the known properties of drugs and phytotherapies to hypothesize treatments for SPA.

Methods: Review SPA and PA/SA through PubMed searches for relevant literature from 2000 to 2018.

Main Outcome Measure: Prevalence was estimated using population-representative surveys. For treatment results, controlled clinical trial results were prioritized over open-label trial results.

Results: SPA affects 9–25% of men and contributes to premature ejaculation and psychogenic erectile dysfunction (ED). SPA affects 6–16% of women and severely inhibits sexual desire. Cognitive behavior therapy and mindfulness meditation training have been proven effective for PA/SA and are recommended for SPA, but controlled studies are lacking. Phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors are effective for psychogenic ED and premature ejaculation, both of which include SPA as a major element. Drugs proven for PA/SA have adverse sexual and sedative effects, but serotonergic anxiolytics with prosexual effects (buspirone ± testosterone, trazodone ± bupropion) may have potential, and sage, passionflower, l-theanine, and bitter orange are anxiolytic. Nitric oxide boosters (l-citrulline, l-arginine, Panax ginseng) have the potential for increasing genital tumescence and lubrication, and plant-based alpha-adrenergic antagonists may aid sexual arousal (yohimbine/yohimbe, Citrus aurantium/p-synephrine).

Conclusion: SPA causes or maintains most common sexual dysfunction. No treatments are well proven, although cognitive behavior therapy, mindfulness meditation training, and serotonergic anxiolytics (buspirone, trazodone, gepirone) have potential, and phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors are effective for psychogenic ED and premature ejaculation. Several phytotherapies also appear to have potential.

We often offload memory demands onto external artefacts, subverting the limitations of our biological memory; authors manipulated the information in that store, leading, upon retrieval by users, to the creation of false memories

Offloading memory leaves us vulnerable to memory manipulation. E.F. Risko, M.O. Kelly, P. Patel, C. Gaspar. Cognition, Volume 191, October 2019, 103954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.04.023

Abstract: We often offload memory demands onto external artefacts (e.g., smartphones). While this practice allows us to subvert the limitations of our biological memory, storing memories externally exposes them to manipulation. To examine the impact of such manipulation, we report three experiments, two of which were pre-registered. Individuals performed a memory task where they could offload to-be-recalled information to an external store and on a critical trial, we surreptitiously manipulated the information in that store. Results demonstrated that individuals rarely noticed this manipulation. In addition, when individuals had information inserted into their external memory stores, they often encoded it into their biological memory, thereby leading to the creation of a false memory. The reported results highlight one of the cognitive consequences of offloading our memory to external artefacts.

After stating opinions on political issues, some responses were manipulated to indicate an opposite position; this created a false memory of a past attitude which people used when generating future responses on political statements

False Memories Resulting from a Choice Blindness Task Shapes Future Political Attitudes. David Bengtegård. Master’s thesis in Cognitive Science, Department of Philosophy, Lund University, Jun 6 2019. http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=8989830&fileOId=8989841

In many attitude theories, it is commonly assumed that what we believe in is partly based on our own past actions, and that these actions shape our present opinion towards an issue. This suggests that how one remembers and represents past decisions could have an instigating role in establishing future attitudes. However, the way attitudes change over time has generally been explained by either self-perception processes or from resolving internal motivational conflicts. The aim of this thesis is to go beyond this conception of attitude change and explore an alternative explanation: that attitudes are liable to the dynamics and processes of memory. To do this, participants stated their opinions on political issues, and the Choice Blindness Paradigm was used to manipulate some of their previous responses to indicate an opposite position. Participants were then asked to remember their previous responses together with their current opinion on the issue directly after the manipulation and one day later to investigate how memories of past attitudes are influenced when accepting the false feed-back. Specifically, to test whether the choice blindness manipulation creates a false memory of a past attitude which participants’ uses when generating their future response on a political statement. The result showed that participants’ memory responses were strongly influenced by the manipulation and moved in direction of the false feedback, both directly following the manipulation as well as one day later. This effect was also found for attitude responses in which participants exhibited lasting shifts in attitudes. Additionally, the memory of past attitudes was a significant predictor for later attitude shifts and explained a large portion of variance in attitude change. These findings provide evidence that attitude change as well as choice blindness may result from memory mechanisms. And helps to understand how environmental forces and memory processes can interact in shaping future attitudes.

Self-presentation and impressions of personality through text-based online dating profiles: A lens model analysis

Self-presentation and impressions of personality through text-based online dating profiles: A lens model analysis. Stephanie Tom Tong et al. New Media & Society, September 5, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819872678

Abstract: In online dating, the self-authored profile serves as the primary way for daters to introduce themselves to others and to learn more about potential partners. However, few studies have examined the extent to which daters’ self-authored profile content is consistent with the impressions that others actually form. This study applied the Brunswikian lens model (1956) to examine self-presentation and impression formation in the text-based “about me” portion of the online dating profile. Using the meaning extraction method, we analyzed 190 profiles. Consistent with the lexical approach to personality, daters were able to encode aspects of themselves through linguistic self-description (cue validity), and observers were able to decode profile information to form impressions (cue utilization). However, there were few significant associations between a dater’s self-presentation and observers’ judgments (functional achievement). Findings are interpreted in line with previous work examining self-presentation and impressions in online dating profiles.

Keywords: Computer-mediated communication, impressions, language, lens model, online dating, personality, self-presentation

Persons were exposed to a target wearing symbols of relatively high or low social class who was presumably requesting money to help the homeless; they gave more than twice as much to the target wearing high social class symbols

Callaghan, Bennett, Quinton M. Delgadillo, and Michael W. Kraus. 2019. “The Influence of Signs of Social Class on Prosocial Behavior: A Field Experiment.” PsyArXiv. September 5. doi:10.31234/osf.io/en7zd

Abstract: A field experiment (N = 4,537) examined how signs of social class influence prosocial behavior. In the experiment, pedestrians were exposed to a target wearing symbols of relatively high or low social class in two major urban cities in the USA who was presumably requesting money to help the homeless. Pedestrians gave more than twice (2.55 times) as much to the target wearing high social class symbols than they did to the one wearing lower-class symbols. A follow-up perceptual study exposed participants to images of this panhandler wearing the same higher- or lower-class symbols, finding that higher-class symbols elicited perceptions of elevated competence, trustworthiness, similarity to the self, and perceived humanity compared to lower-class symbols. These results indicate that perceivers use visible signs of social class as a basis for judging others’ traits and attributes, and in decisions to directly share resources.

The car as a sexual enhancer: Having one increased self-steem, sexual desire, the probability of having sexual intercourse at a younger age, of having more sexual partners, of being promiscuous, & frequency of sexual activities

The Automobile as a Sexual Enhancer: How Having a Car Affects the Sexual Behavior of Emerging Adults That Are University Students. David A. Soriano-Hernandez et al. Sexuality Research and Social Policy, September 5 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13178-019-00403-2

Abstract: The automobile (or car) is a symbol of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries that move its drivers from one place to another, but it can also bring about behavioral changes in them. Changes in sexual behavior resulting from having a car have not been quantified. Given that emerging adults belong to a vulnerable and psychologically immature group, examining said changes in that population is of interest. A case-control study was designed that included 809 emerging adults (17–24 years) studying at a small university in Western Mexico. The students were surveyed in relation to their sexual conduct, along with other socioeconomic aspects. The participants were then separated into cases (having a car, n = 161) and controls (not having a car, n = 648). Having a car increased sexual desire and the probability of having sexual intercourse at a younger age, of having more sexual partners, of being promiscuous, and of increasing the frequency of sexual activities. It also increased self-esteem. Originally conceived as a means of transportation, the automobile can also act as a sexual enhancer in emerging adulthood, which should be taken into consideration in the development of sex education strategies. Future studies are required in other social groups.

Keywords: Adolescent behavior Sex Automobiles Self-concept Students

Thursday, September 5, 2019

We avoid asking sensitive questions; we significantly overestimate the interpersonal costs of asking those, but individuals formed similarly favorable impressions of partners who asked non-sensitive & sensitive questions

Hart, Einav and VanEpps, Eric and Schweitzer, Maurice E., I Didn’t Want to Offend You: The Cost of Avoiding Sensitive Questions (June 24, 2019). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3437468

Abstract: Within a conversation, individuals balance competing concerns, such as the motive to gather information and the motives to avoid discomfort and to create a favorable impression. Across three pilot studies and four experimental studies, we demonstrate that individuals avoid asking sensitive questions, because they fear making others uncomfortable and because of impression management concerns. We demonstrate that this aversion to asking sensitive questions is both costly and misguided. Even when we incentivized participants to ask sensitive questions, participants were reluctant to do so in both face-to-face and computer-mediated chat conversations. Interestingly, rather than accurately anticipating how sensitive questions will influence impression formation, we find that question askers significantly overestimate the interpersonal costs of asking sensitive questions. Across our studies, individuals formed similarly favorable impressions of partners who asked non-sensitive (e.g., “Are you a morning person?”) and sensitive (e.g., “What are your views on abortion?”) questions, despite askers’ reticence to ask sensitive questions.

Keywords: Conversation; Questions; Strategic Information Exchanges
JEL Classification: D01, D03, D74, D81, D84

Masculinity in heterosexual women & femininity in both hetero- & homosexual men are related to higher sociosexuality; in men, this may reflect female preferences for feminine characteristics in men

Femininity in men and masculinity in women is positively related to sociosexuality. Klára Bártová et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 152, 1 January 2020, 109575. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.109575

Highlights
•  Higher masculinity in heterosexual women is related to higher sociosexuality.
•  Higher femininity in heterosexual men is associated to higher sociosexual desire.
•  Higher femininity in homosexual men is linked to higher sociosexual behavior.
•  Cross-cultural differences were found in men but not in women.

Abstract: Sociosexuality, i.e. individual's willingness to engage in uncommitted sex, is systematically higher in men than in women, and can be considered a male typical trait. However, intrasexual variation in sociosexuality is considerable, with individual femininity/masculinity being one of the factors influencing sociosexuality. The aim of our study was to test, in heterosexual and homosexual men and women from Brazil and the Czech Republic, whether childhood gender nonconformity (CGN) and continuous gender identity in adulthood (CGI) are associated with individual sociosexual orientation (SOI-R). A sample of 1336 heterosexual and homosexual men and women completed questionnaires on CGN, CGI, and SOI-R. In general, correlations show that higher masculinity in heterosexual women and higher femininity in both heterosexual and homosexual men are related to higher sociosexuality. Higher sociosexuality in masculine women can be explained by prenatal or actual androgen effects on sexual libido and can reflect a fast life history strategy. In feminine men, this result might reflect female preferences for feminine characteristics in men and an overall shift towards male femininity which can increase individual fitness. Also, gender nonconforming individuals can be more liberal adopting behaviors which are considered as non-traditional. This study challenges the widely association between masculinity and unrestricted sociosexuality.

Keywords: SociosexualityGender nonconformitySexual orientationCross-cultural research

Online comment sections: Those who hold strong opinions are more likely to comment when they perceive the opinion climate to be oppositional rather than supportive to their worldview

Staying silent and speaking out in online comment sections: The influence of spiral of silence and corrective action in reaction to news. Megan Duncan et al. Computers in Human Behavior, Volume 102, January 2020, Pages 192-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2019.08.026

Highlights
•  Homogenous opinion climates shifted opinions more than mixed climates.
•  Comments most effect the opinion those with ambiguous initial opinions.
•  Most comments were generated by those with strong opinions.
•  Corrective action seems to motivate polarized audiences to comment.
•  Comment sections may distort audiences' perceptions of public opinion.

Abstract: Through the lenses of Spiral of Silence Theory, the Corrective Action Hypothesis, and peer influence research, we conducted an online experiment to identify the influence of varying opinion climates on opinion expression about a news controversy. This study expands the corrective action literature by manipulating the perceived opinion climate and measuring opinion change and subsequent expression. After all participants (N = 415) read the same news story, they were randomly assigned to one of five opinion climate conditions (supportive, oppositional, mixed, uncertain or polarized) operationalized through user comments following the story. The experiment allowed participants to reply, comment, do both, or not further engage in an attempt to mirror real-world expression behavior. The results suggest that the opinion climate formed by news comments influenced the opinions and comments of participants, providing evidence that those who hold strong opinions are more likely to comment when they perceive the opinion climate to be oppositional rather than supportive to their worldview.

Keywords: News audienceOpinion climateNews comment sectionsCorrective actionSpiral of silencePeer influenceExperimentMedia effects

Linkages between violence‐associated attitudes and psychological, physical, and sexual dating abuse perpetration and victimization among male and female adolescents

Linkages between violence‐associated attitudes and psychological, physical, and sexual dating abuse perpetration and victimization among male and female adolescents. Michele L. Ybarra, Jennifer Langhinrichsen‐Rohling, Aggressive Behavior, August 25 2019. https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.21856

Abstract: Attitudes about violence and sex in dating relationships were related to psychological, physical, and sexual teen dating abuse perpetration and victimization. Data from Wave 4 of the national, randomly selected, Growing up with Media cohort (n = 876 adolescents aged 14‐19 years), collected in 2011, were analyzed. Dating youth perceived more peer pressure to have sex and were more accepting of sex in brief or nonmarital relationships than pre‐dating youth. Boys had higher levels of rape‐supportive attitudes than girls. Among dating youth, the relative odds of involvement in teen dating abuse as a perpetrator or a victim were generally associated with greater acceptance of relationship violence, perceived peer pressure to have sex, and acceptance of sex in brief and/or nonmarital relationships. Rape‐supportive attitudes were not significantly associated with any type of teen dating abuse involvement. Programs aimed at preventing dating abuse might benefit from targeting attitudes associated with sexual activity as well as relationship violence.

A small, but not insignificant proportion of women, act aggressively beyond self-defense; focus on why and when women engage in sexual harassment and domestic abuse

Douglass, Melanie Dawn, D'Aguanno, Sofia and Jones, Sophie (2019) Women as Active Agents: Female Perpetrators of Sexual Harassment and Domestic Abuse. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences. (In Press). https://ray.yorksj.ac.uk/id/eprint/3807/

Abstract: Beginning with Darwin’s theory of sexual selection, evolutionary psychology has been dominated by the view that women are the “choosy sex” and, through intrasexual competition, males the “aggressive sex”. This view was supported by seminal works (e.g. Buss et al., 1990; Clark & Hatfield, 1989), which formed the basis of a considerable body of work. Moreover, they lent credence to the popular view that women are less interested in the sexual side of human relationships, instead being focused on protection and stability. Combined with the notion that males are the dominant/aggressive sex, the literature has therefore insufficiently examined female aggression. When female aggression does occur, it is often viewed as a retaliation against male aggression (i.e. self-defence), rather than an as active strategy used by a small, but not insignificant proportion of women. The focus on male aggression and female self-defence not only deprives women of agency, it also means that their victims are not taken as seriously, and rehabilitation programmes for female offenders are scarce. This paper will discuss evidence that women act aggressively, focusing on why and when women engage in sexual harassment and domestic abuse. It will seek to establish the underlying mechanisms for such strategies (e.g. the personality traits associated with increased aggression in women), which future research should explore. Moreover, because, historically, the evolutionary literature has taken a heteronormative approach, female aggression will be examined in the context of diverse human relationships.

Keywords: Evolution, Women, Domestic Abuse, Sexual Harassment

How strong the tendency among Finns still is to form only one, life-long relationship? Changes in how many partners they have, same-sex experiences, masturbation, etc.

Monogamy vs Polygamy. Osmo Kontula. SexuS Journal, Winter-2019, Volume 04, Issue 11, Pages 959-978. http://www.sexusjournal.com/FileUpload/bs566760/File/kontula-sexus-polygamy-monogamy-winter-2019-v-4-no-11.pdf

Abstract: The focus of this chapter is to evaluate how strong the tendency among Finns still is to form only one, life-long relationship. We will also take a look at the number of sexual partners that those who enter relationships without being in love have had. In addition, we will discuss same-sex sexual experiences and analyze what unites those who have had numerous sexual relationships. Finally, we will summarize the practical significance of love in relationship formation.

KEY WORDS: Sexuality, Sexual Health, Sex Research, Finland, Monogamy, Polygamy, Polyamory, Single

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Same author: Between Sexual Desire and Reality. Väestöliitto/The Population Research Institute 2009. https://www.vaestoliitto.fi/tieto_ja_tutkimus/vaestontutkimuslaitos/julkaisut/kaikki_julkaisut_all_publication/between_sexual_desire_and_realit/. Chapter 5

Enormous increase in masturbation activity

Over the last decades, the rate of Finnish people who masturbate has truly exploded. The proportion of male respondents jumped from 74 to 97 percent, and of women, from 51 percent to a whopping 93 percent. The figures for the youngest respondents are actually somewhat higher. In 1971, only approximately 60 percent of middleaged men and approximately 30 percent of middle-aged women had occasionally experimented with masturbation. Thereafter the experimentation and practice of masturbation has progressed rapidly from one generation to the next.

Masturbation frequency is still substantially higher among men than women. The latest research has found that, in the group of young adults, 70 percent of men and 33 percent of women had masturbated in the week preceding the survey. The figures for the preceding month were 85 percent and 59 percent. Among the middle-aged, nearly half of men and more than one-fifth of women  had masturbated in the course of the preceding one-week period. The figures for the last one-month period were two-thirds of men and half of women. In the oldest age group, the figures for the past week were one-fifth for men and less than one-tenth for women, and for the past month, half of men and one-fifth of women.

Relatively unrestricted sociosexuality was associated with an increased probability of relationship dissolution through declines in marital satisfaction over time; more sex & more sexual satisfaction weaken this association

The Implications of Sociosexuality for Marital Satisfaction and Dissolution. Juliana E. French, Emma E. Altgelt, Andrea L. Meltzer. Psychological Science, September 4, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797619868997

Abstract: Most people will get married, and maintaining a quality marriage is critical to well-being. Nevertheless, many intimates experience declines in marital satisfaction, and a substantial proportion of marriages dissolve. Drawing from functional perspectives of human mating, we argue that one source of marital discord and dissolution is that people vary in their motivations to pursue uncommitted sex—that is, sociosexuality. We examined this possibility using data from two independent longitudinal studies of 204 newlywed couples and used actor–partner interdependence growth-curve modeling. Results demonstrated that relatively unrestricted (vs. restricted) sociosexuality was associated with an increased probability of relationship dissolution through declines in marital satisfaction over time. Additional exploratory analyses provided preliminary evidence suggesting that frequent sex, high sexual satisfaction, and low stress weaken this association. These primary findings suggest that strong motives to pursue uncommitted sex may interfere with marital success, and the latter findings suggest potential buffers for these negative outcomes.

Keywords: sociosexuality, marriage, evolutionary psychology, marital satisfaction, divorce, open materials

Economists & Ideological Bias: Are critics of conventional views better economists or even better persons? Remembering Krugman's The Conscience of a Liberal.

Mohsen Javdani & Ha-Joon Chang, Who Said or What Said? Estimating Ideological Bias in Views Among Economists (August 1, 2019). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3356309

Abstract: There exists a long-standing debate about the influence of ideology in economics. Surprisingly, however, there is no concrete empirical evidence to examine this critical issue. Using an online randomized controlled experiment involving economists in 19 countries, we examine the effect of ideological bias on views among economists. Participants were asked to evaluate statements from prominent economists on different topics, while source attribution for each statement was randomized without participants’ knowledge. For each statement, participants either received a mainstream source, an ideologically different less-/non-mainstream source, or no source. We find that changing source attributions from mainstream to less-/non-mainstream, or removing them, significantly reduces economists’ reported agreement with statements. This contradicts the image economists have of themselves, with 82% of participants reporting that in evaluating a statement one should only pay attention to its content. Using a framework of Bayesian updating we examine two competing hypotheses as potential explanations for these results: unbiased Bayesian updating versus ideologically-/authority-biased Bayesian updating. While we find no evidence in support of unbiased updating, our results are consistent with biased Bayesian updating. More specifically, we find that changing/removing sources (1) has no impact on economists’ reported confidence with their evaluations; (2) similarly affects experts/non-experts in relevant areas; and (3) has substantially different impacts on economists with different political orientations. Finally, we find significant heterogeneity in our results by gender, country, PhD completion country, research area, and undergraduate major, with patterns consistent with the existence of ideological bias.

Keywords: ideology, ideological bias, authority bias, Bayesian updating, views among economists
JEL Classification: A11, A14

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5.4.2. Heterogeneity by Gender
[...]. In addition, we find that the estimated ideological bias is 44% larger among male economists as compared to their female counterparts (24% of a standard deviation reduction in agreement level versus 14%, respectively), a difference that is statistically significant at 0.1%. These results are consistent with studies from psychology which suggest that women exhibit less confirmation bias than men (Meyers-Levy 1986, Bar-Tal and Jarymowicz 2010). Gordon and Dahl (2013) also find evidence that suggests that male economists are less cautious in expressing an opinion. This seems to be consistent with stronger ideological bias among male economists found in our results, since ideological bias and assigning higher levels of certainly to our own views usually work hand in hand. Finally, these results are consistent with van Dalen (2019) who finds that female economists are more likely to believe that economic research is not affected by one’s political views, perhaps because they more strongly aspire to be less ideologically biased.


Just a few quick low-quality comments/reminders:

0  First of all, Lee C Bollinger: The Idea of a University. The Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2003, http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB106617939829836100,00.html
[...] universities at their best have nurtured a distinctive intellectual atmosphere in which one is forced to live in a world of seemingly infinite complexity, while holding onto the natural but quixotic hope that someday it all will be resolved. If the pursuit of understanding is your mission, you simply cannot avoid confronting the immense variety of perspectives out there and, ultimately, how much we don't know, our sheer ignorance. You cannot rely on the comforts of common sense and of having a point of view. Learning to live comfortably in this very uncomfortable mental environment, with all its confusions and disorder and possibilities, defines the intellectual character of the modern university. 
And this has great significance for shaping the intellectual and emotional character of open, democratic societies. Just as instilling an entrepreneurial spirit is difficult and takes time, so does the creation of a democratic personality. The instinctive impulse in the marketplace of ideas is to stick with what we think we know, to find others who think similarly so we can mutually reassure ourselves of the correctness of our beliefs, to avoid situations where we might have to justify our ideas and to resort more and more to certitude as the best defense when under attack. These impulses, natural as they may be, are of course devastating to society. With all the pressures toward the closing of our minds that come with conflict in the public arena, it's not a bad idea to have special communities like universities distinctly dedicated to the open intellect.

1  Care must be taken with some of the writing... We see at the beginning "We find that the estimated ideological bias among female economists is around 40 percent less than their male counterparts" and later the different formulation and figures "the estimated ideological bias is 44% larger among male economists as compared to their female counterparts." Several times they make two uses of some comments, and there are substantial, IMHO, differences among those invocations.

As Tyler Cowen says, "It is a wordy and poorly written paper, and they don't consider the possibility that deference to authority perhaps is the rational Bayesian move, not the contrary.  Still, it has numerous results of interest." (Sep 5 2019, https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/09/ideological-bias-and-argument-from-authority-among-economists.html).

2  It says that "there already exists strong evidence that, compared to various other disciplines, students in economics stand out in terms of views associated with greed, corruption, selfishness, and willingness to free-ride," and a note adds to this that "Even if this relationship is not strictly casual, it suggests that there exists something about economic education that leads to a disproportionate self-selection of such students into economics."

All this goes mainly for the boys (see section 3 below). It adds nothing about possible (or lack of) better insights, better theories, more economic geniuses among the greedy, corrupt, selfish, or free-riders, and many other possible ideas to be explored. We are left with the doubt that maybe they are as they say, but that makes them better economists, maybe this makes them better at computing while modeling, maybe they see better the economic agents' motivations, aspirations, etc. But they are not interested in going deeper, only in correcting the bad traits, bad habits, etc.

3  If anyone thinks it is a good thing to believe "that economic research is not affected by one’s political views," they are wrong; and that belief and that wish do not make the girls better economists.


4  I think that it transmits biased information, besides its being hilarious, to make mention of Dani Rodrik saying this:
"there are powerful forces having to do with the sociology of the profession and the socialization process that tend to push economists to think alike. Most economists start graduate school not having spent much time thinking about social problems or having studied much else besides math and  economics. The incentive and hierarchy systems tend to reward those with the technical skills rather than interesting questions or research agendas. An in-group versus out-group mentality develops rather early on that pits economists against other social scientists."
or Joseph Stiglitz's pearl:
"[economics as taught] in America’s graduate schools … bears testimony to a triumph of ideology over science."
, as if they were less biased than the others, or were not part of powerful forces of good intentions, or we could ask them to re-organize economics teaching in America, or biases and group think are worse now than when they were students, or ideology trumping science were now a bigger problem than time ago.

They are as bad as we all, and it is likely that worse than many, since they succumb to the feeling-good double pressure in greater degree than the truly modest learners: the pressure of having a good image outside themselves (reputation of being compassionate, economists with a heart) and the pressure of having a good internal reputation, so to speak (good image of oneself).

The pontifex himself, P Krugman, author of The Conscience of a Liberal, said:
On election night 2016, I gave in temporarily to a temptation I warn others about: I let my political feelings distort my economic judgment. A very bad man had just won the Electoral College; and my first thought was that this would translate quickly into a bad economy. I quickly retracted the claim, and issued a mea culpa. (Being an old-fashioned guy, I try to admit and learn from my mistakes.) [Can the Economy Keep Calm and Carry On? Paul Krugman. The New York Times, Jan 01 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/opinion/can-the-economy-keep-calm-and-carry-on.html]

Being he, it happened only that day and it was temporary. But we the great unwashed sin frequently and, being not old-fashioned guys, we do not "try to admit and learn from" our mistakes, and are "testimony to a triumph of ideology over science."

Fortunately for us, Messrs. Javdani & Chang mentioned those three economists, three that are less of a role model than others much more modest and conscious of their human limitations.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Illusion of Knowledge through Facebook News? Effects of Snack News in a News Feed on Perceived Knowledge, Attitude Strength, and Willingness for Discussions

Illusion of Knowledge through Facebook News? Effects of Snack News in a News Feed on Perceived Knowledge, Attitude Strength, and Willingness for Discussions. Svenja Schäfer. Computers in Human Behavior, September 4 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2019.08.031

Highlights
•    Many news posts make people feel more knowledgeable than they are
•    Only knowledge perception (not actual knowledge) is related to attitudes and behavior
•    Many news posts indirectly affect attitudes and behavior through perceived knowledge
•    News articles improve both actual knowledge and knowledge assessment

Abstract: Research indicates that using social network sites as a source for news increases perceived knowledge even if, objectively, people fail to acquire knowledge. This might result from the frequent repetition of topics in news posts caused by multiple news outlets posting about the same news topics and the algorithm that favors similar postings. These repeated encounters can have a positive effect on the perception of knowing more, even if actual learning hardly occurs. An experiment (N=810, representative of German Internet users) tested these assumptions. Participants were assigned to one of four groups and received a news feed with no information, few news posts, many news posts, or a full-length news article. Results indicate that the reception of many news posts increased perceived knowledge that is not paralleled by a gain in factual knowledge. Perceived knowledge mediates effects of reading many news posts on more extreme attitudes and the willingness for discussions. Even if participants who read the news article gained factual knowledge, they did not feel more knowledgeable than participants who were exposed to a news feed containing news posts. The results emphasize the meaning of engaging with full news articles, both for learning facts and for more accurate knowledge assessments.

Generalized anxiety: Most psychological and self-help interventions exerted greater effects than the waitlist group, but no psychological interventions had greater effects compared with the psychological placebo

Pharmacological and psychological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder in adults: A network meta-analysis. Ting-Ren Chen et al. Journal of Psychiatric Research, September 1 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2019.08.014

Abstract: Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is a significant and common mental illness with a lifetime prevalence of 3.7%. Regardless of the complexity of treatment decisions for GAD, few studies have conducted systematic comparisons of the efficacies of varying interventions. Thus, this study performed a valid network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to synthesize direct and indirect evidence for alternative interventions for GAD. We searched four major bibliographic databases, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, PsycINFO, and PubMed, for published RCTs of adult patients with a diagnosis of GAD and allowed for all comorbidities. A total of 91 articles (14,812 participants) were identified in the final NMA. The results showed that all pharmacological treatments except for serotonin modulators and second-generation antipsychotics had greater effects than placebo: norepinephrine–dopamine reuptake inhibitors (standardized mean difference (SMD) −1.84, 95% credible interval −3.05 to −0.62), noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressants (−0.91, −1.62 to −0.20), melatonergic receptor agonists (−0.68, −1.15 to −0.21), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs; −0.67, −0.90 to −0.43), azapirones (−0.58, −1.00 to −0.17), anticonvulsants (−0.56, −0.85 to −0.28), serotonin–norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs; −0.54, −0.79 to −0.30), and benzodiazepines (BZDs; −0.40, −0.65 to −0.15). Most psychological and self-help interventions exerted greater effects than the waitlist group. However, no psychological interventions had greater effects compared with the psychological placebo. Overall, most pharmacological interventions had larger effect sizes than psychological interventions, and most psychological interventions showed larger effect sizes than self-help interventions.


Check also An analysis of psychotherapy versus placebo studies. Leslie Prioleau, Martha Murdock and Nathan Brody. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Volume 6 Issue 2, June 1983 , pp. 275-285. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X00015867

Abstract: Smith, Glass, and Miller (1980) have reported a meta-analysis of over 500 studies comparing some form of psychological therapy with a control condition. They report that when averaged over all dependent measures of outcome, psychological therapy is. 85 standard deviations better than the control treatment. We examined the subset of studies included in the Smith et al. metaanalysis that contained a psychotherapy and a placebo treatment. The median of the mean effect sizes for these 32 studies was. 15. There was a nonsignificant inverse relationship between mean outcome and the following: sample size, duration of therapy, use of measures of outcome other than undisguised self-report, measurement of outcome at follow-up, and use of real patients rather than subjects solicited for the purposes of participation in a research study. A qualitative analysis of the studies in terms of the type of patient involved indicates that those using psychiatric outpatients had essentially zero effect sizes and that none using psychiatric inpaticnts provide convincing evidence for psychotherapeutic effectiveness. The onty studies clearly demonstrating significant effects of psychotherapy were the ones that did not use real patients. For the most part, these studies involved small samples of subjects and brief treatments, occasionally described in quasibeliavioristic language. It was concluded that for real patients there is no evidence that the benefits of psychotherapy are greater than those of placebo treatment.

China's Vice Premier: "We must strengthen the guidance and management of public opinion."

China's Vice Premier: Pork Shortages Must Not Spoil the Party. Dim Sums blog, Sep 2 2019. https://dimsums.blogspot.com/2019/09/vice-premier-pork-shortages-must-not.html

Excerpts of blog:

Chinese officials are worried that a 10-million-ton pork shortage could spoil upcoming communist party celebrations, according to a transcript of a speech ordering local officials to bolster pork supplies. In fact, the speech's instructions to "manage public opinion" and constant shifting of priorities of the communist regime suggest the celebrations may ring hollow anyway.

As the country's year-old African swine fever epidemic began to send pork prices into the stratosphere this summer, the government's rhetoric gradually shifted from admonitions to stop the spread of the disease to pronouncements that the disease is "under control" and commands to restore "normal" production and trade. On August 20-21, Premier Li Keqiang visited food markets and chaired a State Council meeting that adopted "more detailed policies and an attitude of urgency" to cope with the pork supply crisis.

On August 22, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua told communist party officials to prioritize the rebuilding of pork production capacity and preservation of pork supplies as an important "political task." The full transcript posted on a pork industry site warned officials that widespread pork shortages could occur during the upcoming moon festival, National day, New Year, and spring festival holidays if they fail to take measures. Shortages would affect the "happy and peaceful atmosphere" during the upcoming 70th anniversary of the Peoples Republic, the vice premier said. Furthermore, Hu warned that a gaping hole in the pork supply and unaffordable pork for low-income people would impair the image of the communist party in 2020 when the "well-off society" is scheduled to be achieved.

Most Chinese news media posted only the 3-paragraph summary of the Vice Premier's remarks that omits these admonitions. The full transcript--apparently an internal communication addressed to "comrades"--was posted only on social media. The full transcript is a surprisingly candid assessment of problems and shortcomings in the pork sector that are kept hidden in documents for the public.

Vice Premier Hu's remarks included a number of items that rarely appear in government-approved documents for public consumption:

    The ASF virus is now endemic in China (在我国定植).
    According to Hu, unannounced investigations found large numbers of dead pigs where no disease had been reported, indicating that the actual number of ASF cases exceeds the number reported.
    Hu acknowledged that China's pork supply situation will be "extremely severe" during the 4th quarter of this year and first half of 2020
    The Chinese government estimates that the country will have a 10-million-metric-ton deficit in pork supply this year.
    Premier Hu said the projected 10-mmt deficit exceeds the amount of pork traded in international markets.
    Monthly estimates of swine inventories by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs are based on monitoring of 4000 pig-raising villages and 13,000 scaled-up farms.
    With its short production cycle, poultry will be the main substitute relied upon to fill the deficit. China will struggle to increase poultry production by 3 mmt this year, Hu said.
    After years of prioritizing control of manure pollution by closing or moving farms, local officials are now accused of over-zealous enforcement and are ordered to pare back zones where livestock farms are banned and pay for re-building hog farms.
    Hu acknowledged that there hasn't been much progress in cleaning up manure pollution
    Local leaders in pork-producing regions have been asking for slaughterhouses to be built in their counties because subsidized pig farms generate no tax revenue and pigs are mostly trucked off to cities for slaughter. This pattern is said to "unsustainable," and trucking pigs around the country is acknowledged as contributing to the spread of disease.
    Hu acknowledged chronic weakness and under-funding of grassroots veterinary services.

Hu Chunhua recommended numerous policy measures to stabilize production and maintain market supplies of pork. Provincial and local officials are responsible for implementing these policies:

    Pork farms and companies are to be given short-term aid.
    Banks must not cut off lending to swine farms and slaughterhouses; subsidized loans should be given to swine farms. Provincial government loan guarantee organizations should prioritize recovery of swine farms.
    Poultry companies should also be given aid to expand.
    Each province is charged with maintaining a degree of self-sufficiency in pork. The mayors' market basket system will hold city officials accountable for supplying pork and other nonstaple foods to their citizens.
    Pork reserves should be expanded and made more effective.
    Pork-deficit provinces and cities are to form long-term pork supply agreements with neighboring pork-surplus provinces and counties to establish contiguous regions self-sufficient in pork.
    Officials should work out arrangements by which wealthy cities pay pork-producing counties to support their farms and infrastructure.
    Land and credit should be set aside to build slaughter facilities in pork-producing counties.
    2 billion yuan in food subsidies for low-income people have been announced.

Previous announcements targeted aid to large-scale farms, but the State Council's August 21 circular extended support to household-operated farms and removed a minimum requirement of 15 mu (1 hectare) of land for a farm to receive support.

Vice Premier Hu wrapped up his address by emphasizing two points that are distinctive features of the communist regime:

    "We must strengthen the guidance and management of public opinion."    "Stabilization of production and maintaining supply are an important political task."

[not the author's emphasis]

In China's economic model, government officials are the "directors of the play" and "companies are actors on the stage." It follows that officials have privileged access to information so they can pull the strings to organize the play. Hu reflects this duality by goading officials to "apply force on internal matters" and "in external matters do well on propaganda, issuance of information, and managing public opinion" (italics added). In the same vein, Hu advised statistical bureaus to increase the frequency of "confidential" or "secret" surveys so the government can devise timely support measures. In other words, Chinese statistics are internal information for the government's use; statistics are only released to the public after being massaged and molded into a propaganda statement.

The vice premier's remarks reveal a contradiction regarding information gathering. Like an angry schoolmaster, Hu Chunhua chided local officials for not reporting of disease to central authorities and promises they will be punished for doing so. While he is aghast that local officials withhold information from him, the Vice Premier seems to have no problem withholding information from the public. Hu believes information released to the public must be carefully managed to shape their opinion. The public cannot be trusted with information because they might panic and hoard pork or try to corner the market. (And of course, government officials would never do this themselves.)

Management of public opinion is evident from a comparison of Premier Hu's speech with a Peoples Daily propaganda article. While Premier Hu warned officials about an impending shortage of pork and potential market instability, Peoples Daily quoted a Ministry of Agriculture official who declared that "The overall meat supply is assured" and "the pork market is overall stable." Premier Hu told officials they face a long, difficult battle against ASF, but articles intended for the public declare that the disease is under control and normal production and marketing can now resume.

The elevation of promoting pork production as a "political task" reveals the constantly changing crisis-driven priorities kicked down to local officials. Efforts to control manure pollution are an example of the constant oscillation of "political tasks." Policy pronouncements in the last two months have included vague admonishments not to go beyond legal requirements in designating zones where livestock farms are banned or limited. These refer to a an ongoing tug of war over efforts to clean up pollution from pig manure in a rapidly urbanizing society. The first livestock law in 2005 included a provision that called for each community to designate zones where livestock farms would be banned,  limited or encouraged. Livestock farms would be restricted near residential areas, institutions of higher education, drinking water sources, markets, roads, and scenic areas. This idea was rarely implemented until 2013 when a water pollution prevention action plan issued by the state council called for designating such zones by the end of 2017 and destroying or moving farms from zones where they were banned.

In 2017, the Ministry of Agriculture issued a document criticizing local officials for being overzealous in designating farm-ban zones--although the examples they gave seem consistent with language describing the zone designation going back to the 2005 livestock law. Two years later, facing a pork shortage, officials now seem to have decided the Ministry of Agriculture is right by ordering local officials to scale back the pig-ban zones and rebuilding pig farms that were demolished. In his teleconference, Premier Hu also seemed to admit that little had been done to promote treatment and utilization of pig manure although it was a feature of the 2016-2020 plan for the swine sector. Environmental control seems to have been pushed aside as a priority now that there's a pork supply crisis.

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In response to a comment, the author says:

In China, employees of statistical organizations must be vetted for political reliability, and even low-level managers must spend months at a communist party training school before taking up their positions. The head of the organization is assigned to his/her post by the communist party and serves as party secretary.