Monday, September 28, 2020

Do people who claim to be dispositionally open-minded, in fact, demonstrate such open-mindedness when they are actually presented with political opinions that run counter to their own? Seems they don't.

 On Staying Open While Seeing Red: Predicting Open-Mindedness and Affect in Politics. Emily J. Hanson. Ph D Thesis, Psychological and Brain Sciences. Washington University in St. Louis, 2020. https://search.proquest.com/openview/abe8cf853b03f6f6f5f3377a20bfd498/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=2026366&diss=y

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1310798907291639808

Abstract: This dissertation examines whether people who claim to be dispositionally open-minded, do in fact, demonstrate such open-mindedness when they are actually presented with political opinions that run counter to their own. In Study 1, participants rated their partisan identity and dispositional open-mindedness prior to reacting to a series of fictional Facebook posts that varied in both their political ideology and political extremity. The results of this study demonstrated that the most consistent predictor of “open” reactions (operationalized in terms of both cognitive judgements and affective reactions) to each type of Facebook post was whether it was congruent with the participants’ partisan identity. Importantly, this effect was never moderated by dispositional open-mindedness. Thus, the degree to which a participant was high (vs. low) in open-mindedness did not significantly attenuate partisan bias or act to increase the likelihood of “open” reactions to outgroup political views. Study 2 utilized a similar design, except in this case participants were asked to predict how open they thought they would be to the same set of political issues used in Study 1. The results of Study 2 demonstrated that participants predicted they would be most open to attitudinally consistent political views. As in Study 1, these predictions were not moderated by dispositional open-mindedness. This means that participants who rated themselves as highly open-minded were not any more likely to predict they would be open to outgroup political opinions than those participants who scored themselves low in openmindedness. This research both builds upon and significantly extends prior work in both the psychological and political science literatures. The implications of these results and future directions are discussed.


In 1979 marriage was associated with lower earnings among women; by 2018 it was associated with higher earnings, suggesting greater positive selection of women with high earnings potential into marriage

The Declining Earnings Gap Between Young Women and Men in the United States, 1979-2018. John Iceland, Ilana Redstone. Social Science Research, September 28 2020, 102479, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2020.102479

Abstract: We examine the dynamics of the gender earnings gap over the 1979 to 2018 period among full-time workers aged 25-29, focusing on the role of marital status and the presence of children. Using data from multiple years of the Current Population Survey, we find that the earnings gap declined among all groups of men and women, and by 2018 there was earnings parity among the those who were not married and without children. The share of people in this group also grew over the period, and comprised a majority of both men and women by 2018. We also find that while marriage was associated with lower earnings among women in 1979, by 2018 it was associated with higher earnings, suggesting greater positive selection of women with high earnings potential into marriage. The positive association between marriage and earnings among men remained stable. While we found a persistent earnings penalty for having children among women over the period, we found an emerging dampening effect of having children over time among men, which suggests that greater participation in childcare among men has led to lower earnings than in the past (i.e., a causal connection) and/or an emerging selection effect of young men more interested in childrearing over time, perhaps reflecting a cultural shift.

Key words: Gender InequalityEarningsMarriageChildren


Can nations be ranked on the quality of their elites? Elites are dominant coalitions possessing the strongest coordination capacity over a country’s key resources, creating value or extracting it

Casas, Tomas and Cozzi, Guido, Elite Quality Report 2020: 32 Country Scores and Global Rank (August 18, 2020). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3676776

Abstract: Can nations be ranked on the quality of their elites? Elites are dominant coalitions possessing the strongest coordination capacity over a country’s key resources. They run the highest impact business models, which can be value creating or value extracting. We aim to produce a political economy index and present the first ever comparative measurement of Elite Quality (EQ), that is, a country’s elites’ propensity – on aggregate – to create value, rather than to rent seek with extractive business models. Using data on 72 Indicators, the Elite Quality Index (EQx) ranks 32 countries. Based on its multi-layered index architecture, we quantify a country’s overall EQ, as well as offer an in-depth analysis of specific dimensions of EQ, such as the role of power (Power Sub-Index I) and current value creation activities (Value Sub-Index II) in the political and economic realm. On a more granular level, the Index consists of 12 Pillars, including Creative Destruction, State Capture and Capital Rent. We reveal substantial differences in the overall state of Elite Quality around the world and hence divergent mid- and long-term economic growth and human development prospects. In-depth analysis of regional dynamics (North East Asia), specific EQ dimensions as well as various country portraits (incl. the United States, China, German, Japan, Russia, Portugal and others) by experts and academics illustrate the varied use of the EQx as a new analytical tool to explain the political economy of countries. This global Index and country ranking is an innovative heuristic and approach that might help interpret – and possibly transform – the state of the world and its future.

Keywords: index, elite quality, institutions, value creation, rent seeking, crony capitalism, political economy, global ranking, international business

JEL Classification: D72, F50, P16, P48

Our unique capability: Once one appreciates that one’s thoughts about the future are just representations, one is in a position to evaluate them, to discount them, or to try to compensate for their shortcomings

From 2019... The future-directed functions of the imagination: From prediction to metaforesight. Adam Bulley, Jonathan Redshaw, Thomas Suddendorf. In book: The Cambridge Handbook of the Imagination, Apr 2019. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332154143

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1310592701960777728

Abstract: One of the fundamental roles of human imagination is to enable the representation of possible future events. Here, we survey some of the most critical abilities that this foresight supports: anticipating future emotions, setting and pursuing goals, preparing for threats, deliberately acquiring skills and knowledge, and intentionally shaping the future environment. Furthermore, we outline how metacognition bolsters human capacities even further by enabling people to reflect on and compensate for the natural limits of their foresight. For example, humans make contingency plans because they appreciate that their initial predictions may turn out to be wrong. We suggest that the processes involved in monitoring, controlling, and ultimately augmenting future-oriented imagination represent an important and understudied parallel of "metamemory" that should be called "metaforesight".


2. Compensating for anticipated limits: introducing “metaforesight”

Humans, perhaps uniquely, are capable of meta-representational insight into

the relationship between their imagination and reality. In other words, people can

evaluate how imagined scenarios link in with the external world, and thus assess

whether what is imagined is likely to actually occur in the future, and whether it is

biased, pessimistic, or hopeful and so forth. In the broad sense, meta-representation

involves representing the relation between (i) a representation and (ii) what that

representation is about (Pylyshyn, 1978). The development of such a capacity in

childhood is widely considered as critical to the emergence of an understanding of

other people’s minds (e.g., Perner, 1991). In the domain of foresight, this form of

metacognition has long been given a central role (Suddendorf, 1999). Once one

appreciates that one’s thoughts about the future are just representations, one is in a

position to evaluate them, to modify them, to discount them, to discuss them, and to

try to compensate for their shortcomings (Redshaw, 2014; Redshaw & Bulley, 2018).

Indeed, this capacity may be crucial to children acquiring a mature sense of future

time itself – as a series of possible chains of events of which only one will actually

happen (see Hoerl & McCormack, 2018).


Involuntary Mental Time Travel into the Episodic Future, Episodic Past, and Episodic Counterfactual Past in Everyday Life

Branch, Jared. 2020. “Involuntary Mental Time Travel into the Episodic Future, Episodic Past, and Episodic Counterfactual Past in Everyday Life.” PsyArXiv. January 27. doi:10.31234/osf.io/jbkfg

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1310584704555507717

Abstract: To date, studies exploring episodic counterfactual thoughts have employed laboratory studies to discern the subjective qualities of voluntary mental time travel (Branch & Anderson, 2018; De Brigard & Giovanello, 2012; Özbek, Bohn, & Berntsen, 2017). Here, we offer the first diary study of episodic counterfactual thinking, and therefore we report the subjective qualities of involuntary mental time travel into the counterfactual past. We find that such thoughts do occur, although to a much lesser extent than mental time travel into the future or past (i.e. episodic future thinking or episodic memory). The major purpose that episodic counterfactual thinking serves is mood regulation: to daydream and to feel better. We observed that the majority of episodic counterfactual thoughts are experienced in the recent past and decrease as a function of time. We also report on the phenomenological aspects of episodic counterfactual thoughts as they relate to future thinking and memories.


Compared to others of same age & gender, they believed they were unlikely to experience a range of controllable (eg accidentally infect/ be infected) & uncontrollable (eg need hospitalization/ intensive care treatment) COVID‐19‐related risks in the short term

Comparative optimism about infection and recovery from COVID‐19; Implications for adherence with lockdown advice. Koula Asimakopoulou  et al. Health Expectations, September 27 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/hex.13134

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1310560848943906820

Abstract

Background: Comparative optimism, the belief that negative events are more likely to happen to others rather than to oneself, is well established in health risk research. It is unknown, however, whether comparative optimism also permeates people’s health expectations and potentially behaviour during the COVID‐19 pandemic.

Objectives: Data were collected through an international survey (N = 6485) exploring people’s thoughts and psychosocial behaviours relating to COVID‐19. This paper reports UK data on comparative optimism. In particular, we examine the belief that negative events surrounding risk and recovery from COVID‐19 are perceived as more likely to happen to others rather than to oneself.

Methods: Using online snowball sampling through social media, anonymous UK survey data were collected from N = 645 adults during weeks 5‐8 of the UK COVID‐19 lockdown. The sample was normally distributed in terms of age and reflected the UK ethnic and disability profile.

Findings: Respondents demonstrated comparative optimism where they believed that as compared to others of the same age and gender, they were unlikely to experience a range of controllable (eg accidentally infect/ be infected) and uncontrollable (eg need hospitalization/ intensive care treatment if infected) COVID‐19‐related risks in the short term (P < .001). They were comparatively pessimistic (ie thinking they were more at risk than others for developing COVID‐19‐related infection or symptoms) when thinking about the next year.

Discussion: This is the first ever study to report compelling comparative biases in UK adults’ thinking about COVID‐19 We discuss ways in which such thinking may influence adherence with lockdown regimes as these are being relaxed in the UK.


4 DISCUSSION

On the basis of these data, we suggest that UK adults who meet the demographic characteristics of our sample display comparative optimism concerning many aspects of COVID‐19. Where participants showed comparative optimism its pattern was consistent with earlier findings showing that comparative optimism is stronger for controllable than for uncontrollable events.67 Our participants overwhelmingly believed that as compared to people of their age and gender, they were somewhat or extremely unlikely to have accidentally infected people with COVID‐19 in the past and to infect others or get infected themselves in the next month. They were also comparatively optimistic, but to a lesser extent, about their likelihood of getting hospitalized due to COVID‐19, finding themselves in an ICU, being ventilated, and making a full recovery.

In contrast, participants showed comparative pessimism about COVID‐19 infections in the more distant future. As compared to the average person of their age and gender they felt likely to get infected by COVID‐19 in the next year and to develop COVID‐19‐related symptoms. This pattern is inconsistent with earlier findings showing greater comparative optimism for events that are further in the future than for nearer events.2122 However, such a finding supports earlier research that shows that people who have experienced some ill health tend to unduly exaggerate their future risk of experiencing further ill health.23 One important difference between COVID‐19 and other risks is that controlling the pandemic was very much placed in the hands of individuals restricting their lives in the UK—as seen in the slogan urging people to ‘Stay at home’. It is reasonable that participants would reason that in the long term, staying at home would be less possible, plausible or practical.11 Feeling that compliance with social distancing rules cannot be maintained indefinitely may thus explain these perceptions, in line with research showing that high prevalence negative events may engender comparative pessimism.24

We have thus established the presence of comparative optimism in relation to both controllable and uncontrollable aspects of COVID‐19. We have also found comparative pessimism concerning future infection and symptom development. Both comparative optimism and comparative pessimism may have important consequences for people’s psychological well‐being and their likelihood of engaging in risk behaviours or responding to further lockdown measures.

If people believe COVID‐19 ‘will not happen to me any time now’ or that they are unlikely to have infected others in the past or to do so in future, they may be more relaxed about lockdown advice. In an effort to make people look beyond their own risk (which for some age and gender groups may be lower than for other groups), most governments, including the UK government, have focused their communication about social distancing rules on how much these protect against infecting others. Unfortunately, having infected others and infecting others in the future are precisely the aspects of COVID‐19 on which we found the strongest comparative optimism—people think it is unlikely these will happen to them.

Equally, for people reporting comparative optimism for present and past COVID‐19 infection, these beliefs could fuel resistance to give up on lockdown—because to do so will place them amongst the very same ‘average others’ who—like them—have been unsuccessful in controlling the pandemic. Given that we have now established comparative optimism in relation to COVID‐19, future work should systematically explore how this thinking may influence behavioural outcomes such as returning to school, work and normal life.

There are limitations of this study which, although do not detract from the generalizability of the findings, should be noted. Firstly, the sample was predominantly White. Although this pattern is typical of wider online survey taking behaviour,20 it may well not represent the views of other ethnic groups. Our sample was also predominantly female, although that may be less of a limitation; our findings showed no gender differences in two subscales, entirely in line with previously reported work.3 The sole difference we observed involved men showing less comparative pessimism and thus being relatively more optimistic than women concerning their long term risk. If anything, then, our study may have underestimated comparative optimism by sampling fewer men. A further limitation of our study is that our participants have self‐selected to participate and that we have no means of estimating the participation rate. This is a methodological issue in all surveys conducted on‐line that use a sampling approach similar to ours. We are therefore confident that our results are no less robust and valid than other appropriately powered surveys in the field; the pattern of comparative optimism and pessimism that we have found is very much in line with patterns reported in previous work in the field of comparative optimism, and which used a range of recruitment strategies, response rates and methods of inquiry.23

On the basis of the above, we conclude that UK adults may be comparatively optimistic about the chances of coming to harm due to COVID‐19 at the moment or having caused harm themselves previously. Future research is needed on the implications of comparatively optimistic thinking for future compliance with government guidelines on managing COVID‐19.

Participants believed they would be less likely to find a compatible partner through online dating than either through friends or in everyday activities; age & shyness were negatively associated with optimism of finding a partner

Beliefs About Finding a Compatible Partner in Three Settings. Susan Sprecher. Interpersona, Vol. 13 No. 2 (2019), Jan 6 2020. https://interpersona.psychopen.eu/index.php/interpersona/article/view/3609

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1310519708643479554

Abstract: Single adults often exert considerable energy searching for a compatible partner. Until recently, people met partners primarily through everyday activities (work, school) and through friends. These ways of meeting partners are still common, although Internet dating sites have also become a main way for couples to meet. The current study was conducted to examine people’s attitudes about finding a compatible partner in three different settings: online dating, the social network (e.g., friends of friends), and everyday activities. A sample of 702 single (unpartnered) adults (ages 18 to 40) completed a survey that included items that measured their attitudes about finding a compatible partner in the three different ways. Participants believed they would be less likely to find a compatible partner through online dating than either through friends or in everyday activities. Age and shyness were negatively associated with optimism of finding a partner, particularly in the traditional settings of everyday activities and through one’s social network.




Almost total lack of empirical analyses of the psychological characteristics or behavioral implications of doll ownership; existing arguments appear to represent the philosophical positions of those scholars expressing them

Harper, Craig A., and Rebecca Lievesley. 2020. “Sex Doll Ownership: An Agenda for Research.” PsyArXiv. May 19. doi:10.31234/osf.io/2uqkf

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1310476219775934464

Abstract

Purpose of review: The topic of sex doll ownership is becoming an increasingly discussed issue from both a social and legal perspective. This review aims to examine the veracity of the existing psychological, sexological, and legal literature in relation to doll ownership.

Recent findings: Strong views exist across the spectrum of potential socio-legal positions on sex doll ownership. However, there is an almost total lack of empirical analyses of the psychological characteristics or behavioral implications of doll ownership. As such, existing arguments appear to represent the philosophical positions of those scholars expressing them, rather than being rooted in any objective evidence base.

Summary: Despite an absence of empirical data on the characteristics and subsequent effects of doll ownership, discussions about the ethical and legal status of doll ownership continue. This highlights a real and urgent need for a coherent research agenda to be advanced in this area of work.



Saturday, September 26, 2020

Personality Evaluated: What Do People Like and Dislike About Themselves and Their Friends?

Sun, Jessie, Rebecca Neufeld, Paige Snelgrove, and Simine Vazire. 2020. “Personality Evaluated: What Do People Like and Dislike About Themselves and Their Friends?.” PsyArXiv. September 26. doi:10.31234/osf.io/4sgna

Abstract: What do people think are their best and worst personality traits? Do their friends agree? Across three samples, 463 college students (“targets”) and their friends freely described two traits they liked and two traits they disliked the most about the target. Coders categorized these open-ended trait descriptions into high or low poles of broad trait domains and judged whether targets and friends reported the same specific best and worst traits. Best traits reflected only the socially desirable poles of the major trait domains (especially high agreeableness and extraversion), whereas worst traits reflected both poles (e.g., high extraversion: “loud”; high agreeableness: “people-pleaser”), and especially low emotional stability (particularly from the targets’ perspective). Overall, targets and friends mentioned similar kinds of best and worst traits, and agreed to a moderate extent on what the targets’ best and worst traits were. These results highlight the mixed blessings of various personality traits.





Impact of superstitious beliefs on the timing of marriage and childbirth: Evidence from Denmark

Impact of superstitious beliefs on the timing of marriage and childbirth: Evidence from Denmark. Evgeny A. Antipov, Elena B. Pokryshevskaya. Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 15, No. 5, September 2020, pp. 756–782. http://journal.sjdm.org/20/200510/jdm200510.pdf

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1309863644151373824

Abstract: We study the influence of numerological superstitions on family-related choices made by people in Denmark. Using daily data on marriages and births in Denmark in 2007-2019 we test hypotheses associated with positive perception of numbers 7 and 9 and a negative perception of number 13, as well as the impact of February, 29, April 1, St. Valentine’s Day and Halloween. There is significant negative effect of the 13th on the popularity of both wedding and birth dates. However, some other effects associated with special dates and the cultural representations of unofficial holidays have a stronger effect. In addition, after controlling for many factors, February 29 and April 1 turn out to be desirable for weddings, but not for childbirth, implying the context dependence of cultural stereotypes. Evidence of birth scheduling for non-medical reasons is especially worrisome because of the associated adverse health outcomes associated with elective caesarian sections and inductions.

Keywords: superstitions, jinx number, lucky number, numerology, childbirth, marriage


Replication of Azar et al. (2013): 70% of customers in Czech restaurants returned excessive change to waiters; the higher the excessive change was, the more honest the customers were

A field experiment on dishonesty: A registered replication of Azar et al. (2013). Jakub Procházka, Yulia Fedoseev, PetrHoudek. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, September 2020, 101617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2020.101617

Highlights

• 70% of customers in Czech restaurants returned excessive change to waiters.

• The higher the excessive change was, the more honest the customers were.

• We successfully replicated the effect from Israeli restaurant.

Abstract: This study is a registered replication of a field experiment on dishonesty by Azar et al. (2013). Their main finding was that most customers of an Israeli restaurant did not return excessive change; however, customers who received a higher amount of excessive change returned it more often than people who received a lower amount. Our study, which was conducted on a sample of customers of restaurants in the Czech Republic (N=219), replicated the results of the original study. The high excessive change condition increased the chance of returning the excess change by 21.7 percentage points (17.4 percentage points in the original study). The findings show that the psychological costs of dishonesty can outweigh its financial benefits. We similarly found that repeat customers and women were more likely to return the excessive change than one-time customers and men. The majority (70%) of customers in our sample returned the excessive change. We discuss the importance of field studies and replications of them in the further development of research into dishonest behavior.

Keywords: Dishonestyfield experimentpre-registered replicationcustomer behaviour



Even for the most committed brain trainers, we found no relationship with any cognitive performance measure, regardless of participant age, which brain training program they used, or whether they expected brain training to work

Stojanoski, B., Wild, C. J., Battista, M. E., Nichols, E. S., & Owen, A. M. (2020). Brain training habits are not associated with generalized benefits to cognition: An online study of over 1000 “brain trainers”. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, Sep 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000773

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1309504814150234113

Abstract: The foundational tenet of brain training is that general cognitive functioning can be enhanced by completing computerized games, a notion that is both intuitive and appealing. Moreover, there is strong incentive to improve our cognitive abilities, so much so that it has driven a billion-dollar industry. However, whether brain training can really produce these desired outcomes continues to be debated. This is, in part, because the literature is replete with studies that use ill-defined criteria for establishing transferable improvements to cognition, often using single training and outcome measures with small samples. To overcome these limitations, we conducted a large-scale online study to examine whether practices and beliefs about brain training are associated with better cognition. We recruited a diverse sample of over 1000 participants, who had been using an assortment of brain training programs for up to 5 years. Cognition was assessed using multiple tests that measure attention, reasoning, working memory and planning. We found no association between any measure of cognitive functioning and whether participants were currently “brain training” or not, even for the most committed brain trainers. Duration of brain training also showed no relationship with any cognitive performance measure. This result was the same regardless of participant age, which brain training program they used, or whether they expected brain training to work. Our results pose a significant challenge for “brain training” programs that purport to improve general cognitive functioning among the general population. 


Rolf Degen summarizing... With increasing age, individual differences in personality traits are more and more determined by idiosyncratic life experiences, compared to genes and family upbringing

Kandler, C., Bratko, D., Butković, A., Hlupić, T. V., Tybur, J. M., Wesseldijk, L. W., de Vries, R. E., Jern, P., & Lewis, G. J. (2020). How genetic and environmental variance in personality traits shift across the life span: Evidence from a cross-national twin study. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Sep 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000366

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1309515043860549634

Abstract: Decades of research have shown that about half of individual differences in personality traits is heritable. Recent studies have reported that heritability is not fixed, but instead decreases across the life span. However, findings are inconsistent and it is yet unclear whether these trends are because of a waning importance of heritable tendencies, attributable to cumulative experiential influences with age, or because of nonlinear patterns suggesting Gene × Environment interplay. We combined four twin samples (N = 7,026) from Croatia, Finland, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and we examined age trends in genetic and environmental variance in the six HEXACO personality traits: Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness. The cross-national sample ranges in age from 14 to 90 years, allowing analyses of linear and nonlinear age differences in genetic and environmental components of trait variance, after controlling for gender and national differences. The amount of genetic variance in Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Openness followed a reversed U-shaped pattern across age, showed a declining trend for Honesty-Humility and Conscientiousness, and was stable for Emotionality. For most traits, findings provided evidence for an increasing relative importance of life experiences contributing to personality differences across the life span. The findings are discussed against the background of Gene × Environment transactions and interactions.


Anthropocentric biases in teleological thinking: How nature seems designed for humans

Preston, J. L., & Shin, F. (2020). Anthropocentric biases in teleological thinking: How nature seems designed for humans. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, Sep 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000981

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1309509202696642562

Abstract: People frequently see design in nature that reflects intuitive teleological thinking—that is, the order in nature that supports life suggests it was designed for that purpose. This research proposes that inferences are stronger when nature supports human life specifically. Five studies (N = 1,788) examine evidence for an anthro-teleological bias. People agreed more with design statements framed to aid humans (e.g., “Trees produce oxygen so that humans can breathe”) than the same statements framed to aid other targets (e.g., “Trees produce oxygen so that leopards can breathe”). The bias was greatest when advantages for humans were well-known and salient (e.g., the ozone layer) and decreased when advantages for other targets were made explicit. The bias was not eliminated by highlighting the benefits for other species, however, and emerged spontaneously for novel phenomena (“Jupiter’s gravity protects Earth from asteroids”). We conclude that anthropocentric biases enhance existing teleological biases to see stronger design in phenomena where it enables human survival.



The absence of pessimism was more strongly related to positive health outcomes than was the presence of optimism

Scheier, M. F., Swanson, J. D., Barlow, M. A., Greenhouse, J. B., Wrosch, C., & Tindle, H. A. (2020). Optimism versus pessimism as predictors of physical health: A comprehensive reanalysis of dispositional optimism research. American Psychologist, Sep 2020. https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000666


Abstract: Prior research has related dispositional optimism to physical health. Traditionally, dispositional optimism is treated as a bipolar construct, anchored at one end by optimism and the other by pessimism. Optimism and pessimism, however, may not be diametrically opposed, but rather may reflect 2 independent, but related dimensions. This article reports a reanalysis of data from previously published studies on dispositional optimism. The reanalysis was designed to evaluate whether the presence of optimism or the absence of pessimism predicted positive physical health more strongly. Relevant literatures were screened for studies relating dispositional optimism to physical health. Authors of relevant studies were asked to join a consortium, the purpose of which was to reanalyze previously published data sets separating optimism and pessimism into distinguishable components. Ultimately, data were received from 61 separate samples (N = 221,133). Meta-analytic analysis of data in which optimism and pessimism were combined into an overall index (the typical procedure) revealed a significant positive association with an aggregated measure of physical health outcomes (r = .026, p < .001), as did meta-analytic analyses with the absence of pessimism (r = .029, p < .001) and the presence of optimism (r = .011, p < .018) separately. The effect size for pessimism was significantly larger than the effect size for optimism (Z = −2.403, p < .02). Thus, the absence of pessimism was more strongly related to positive health outcomes than was the presence of optimism. Implications of the findings for future research and clinical interventions are discussed.


Among both men & women, a large proportion saw themselves as more masculine or feminine than men & women on average, respectively, suggesting that accentuating one’s gender conformity has a psychological function

Theo G. M. Sandfort, Henny M. W. Bos, Tsung-Chieh (Jane) Fu, Debby Herbenick & Brian Dodge (2020) Gender Expression and Its Correlates in a Nationally Representative Sample of the U.S. Adult Population: Findings from the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior, The Journal of Sex Research, Sep 24 2020, DOI: 10.1080/00224499.2020.1818178

ABSTRACT: We explored the associations of gender expression with childhood gender expression, sexual identity, and demographic characteristics in a representative sample of the U.S. population aged 18 to 65 years (N = 1277), using data from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior. As expected, gay men were less gender conforming than heterosexual men. However, among women, persons with a bisexual identity were less gender conforming compared to heterosexual and lesbian persons. In multivariate analyses, childhood gender expression trumped the role of sexual identity. In terms of demographic characteristics, gender conformity seemed to be more present among persons with positions with less social status in terms of age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and relationship status. Finally, we found among both men and women, that a large proportion saw themselves as more masculine or feminine than men and women on average, respectively, suggesting that accentuating one’s gender conformity has a psychological function.



Evolution targets peripheral, not central, aspects of cognition; specialization for language processing has focussed on perceptuomotor aspects of speech rather than on an innate universal grammar

Sinking In: The Peripheral Baldwinisation of Human Cognition. Cecilia Heyes, Nick Chater, Dominic Michael Dwyer. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, September 24 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.08.006

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1309477141197840385

Highlights

.  Evolution targets peripheral, not central, aspects of cognition.

.  Many peripheral mechanisms have evolved via the Baldwin effect.

.  ‘Garcia effects’ on taste-aversion learning have not withstood the test of time.

.  Fear learning is ‘prepared’ by attentional rather than by learning mechanisms.

.  Specialization for language processing has focussed on perceptuomotor aspects of speech rather than on innate principles of universal grammar.

.  There is no innate module for imitation but enhanced social motivation consequently leads to greater attention to the behaviour of other agents.

Abstract: The Baldwin effect is a hypothetical process in which a learned response to environmental change evolves a genetic basis. Modelling has shown that the Baldwin effect offers a plausible and elegant explanation for the emergence of complex behavioural traits, but there is little direct empirical evidence for its occurrence. We highlight experimental evidence of the Baldwin effect and argue that it acts preferentially on peripheral rather than on central cognitive processes. Careful scrutiny of research on taste-aversion and fear learning, language, and imitation indicates that their efficiency depends on adaptively specialised input and output processes: analogues of scanner and printer interfaces that feed information to core inference processes and structure their behavioural expression.

Keywords: adaptive specialisationBaldwin effectfear learningimitationlanguagetaste-aversion learning


Concluding Remarks

The Baldwin effect has seemed promising for a very long time. For more than a century it has been poised to revolutionise our understanding of the evolution of complex behavioural traits, but convincing empirical demonstrations have been elusive. We have argued that there is now compelling evidence of the Baldwinisation of cognition from Drosophila, and that research in cognitive science indicates that peripheral rather than central cognitive mechanisms have been the primary targets of selection.

Why might selection operate primarily at the cognitive periphery? A parallel with the evolution of other biological mechanisms is suggestive: internal physiological processes and anatomical structures are remarkably well-conserved. The organisation of the digestive, circulatory, and respiratory systems is similar across vertebrate species, and they are so deeply interconnected that modifications beyond changes of size and shape may be difficult without causing substantial collateral damage. Moreover, even such modest changes to central systems will impact on a wide variety of functions and may therefore not be under strong selection from any one function. By contrast, interfaces with the external environment (jaws, teeth, digestive enzymes, bone and muscle structure) can be adapted to local circumstances (e.g., food sources) without interfering with central systems. The central machinery of cognition is less well understood, but may be equally interlocking, with widespread functional ramification, and a consequent resistance to evolutionary change.

Alternatively, it is possible that central cognitive processes are fully evolvable, but, at least in the human case, tend to be adaptively specialised by cultural rather than by genetic selection [101]. In domains such as language, imitation, mathematics, and ethics, changes to central mechanisms can be acquired through cultural learning. Cognitive skills that are taught, and those that are learned from others through more informal social interaction, do not need to sink in. Baldwinisation would bring little if any fitness advantage for skills that are reliably inherited via a non-genetic route [17], and specialised central mechanisms may be more teachable than specialised peripheral mechanisms. Plausibly, it is easier to learn grammatical constructions than vocal control through conversation, and, in the case of imitation, easier to learn sensorimotor mappings than intrinsic motivation through non-vocal social interaction.

These possibilities warrant further investigation, but the main purpose of this article is to draw attention to empirical work and to encourage testing for Baldwin effects in cognitive science (see Outstanding Questions). Many nonspecialists assume that research on taste aversion, fear learning, language, and imitation has produced solid evidence of genetically specialised learning mechanisms. This view is outdated. Careful empirical work, starting in the 1970s, has shown that efficiency in these domains depends on genetically specialised input and output processes, and that these cognitive equivalents of scanners and printers are likely to be Baldwin effects.



Outstanding Questions

How widespread is the Baldwin effect? For example, has it shaped face processing, episodic memory, social exchange reasoning, normative thinking, mathematical cognition, and mentalising?

Baldwinisation is plausible for human fear learning, imitation, and language because there is evidence that traits which now have a genetic basis were learned earlier in the organism’s phylogenetic history. Is this a general principle? How confidently can we infer Baldwinisation, rather than aplastic evolution, from evidence that a trait was learned earlier in phylogenetic history?

Are there cases where the Baldwin effect has operated on central cognitive processes?

What sinks in when Drosophila are artificially selected for aversion learning? Would studies of experimental evolution using two cue modalities and two types of outcome confirm the evidence from rats that peripheral processes are Baldwinised?

Research using behavioural and physiological measures suggests that young infants are especially attentive to, rather than fearful of, snakes. Can this evidence of peripheral Baldwinisation be confirmed using neurological measures of attention? Are infants better able to associate snakes with positive than with negative outcomes?

Has the motivation to align our thought and behaviour with others, for example in joint action and communication, been Baldwinised?

Many theorists argue that language was originally gestural rather than vocal. If so, are there traces of Baldwinisation of gestural communication, over and above manual dexterity required, for example, in tool use?

Can we find evidence that sequence processing and motivation have been Baldwinised specifically for imitation? For example, are there types of action, or stages in the learning process, where different computations encode action and non-action sequences for imitation and recognition? Is it easier to train infants to copy body movements (‘overimitation’) than to copy object movements?

Does cultural evolution promote, or suppress, natural selection?


From 2000... A glimpse at the metaphysics of Bongard problems

A glimpse at the metaphysics of Bongard problems. Alexandre Linhares. Artificial Intelligence, Volume 121, Issues 1–2, August 2000, Pages 251-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0004-3702(00)00042-4

Abstract: Bongard problems present an outstanding challenge to artificial intelligence. They consist of visual pattern understanding problems on which the task of the pattern perceiver is to find an abstract aspect of distinction between two classes of figures. This paper examines the philosophical question of whether objects in Bongard problems can be ascribed an a priori, metaphysical, existence—the ontological question of whether objects, and their boundaries, come pre-defined, independently of any understanding or context. This is an essential issue, because it determines whether a priori symbolic representations can be of use for solving Bongard problems. The resulting conclusion of this analysis is that in the case of Bongard problems there can be no units ascribed an a priori existence—and thus the objects dealt with in any specific problem must be found by solution methods (rather than given to them). This view ultimately leads to the emerging alternatives to the philosophical doctrine of metaphysical realism.

Keywords: PhilosophyPattern understandingBongard problemsMetaphysical realismMultiperception




Friday, September 25, 2020

Both in more hierarchical & patriarchal communities, 6 in less ones, men who were ranked as having more marital conflict with their spouses had higher testosterone than men in more harmonious relationships

Sharing and caring: Testosterone, fathering, and generosity among BaYaka foragers of the Congo Basin. Lee T. Gettler, Sheina Lew-Levy, Mallika S. Sarma, Valchy Miegakanda & Adam H. Boyette. Scientific Reports volume 10, Article number: 15422, September 22 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-70958-3

Abstract: Humans are rare among mammals in exhibiting paternal care and the capacity for broad hyper-cooperation, which were likely critical to the evolutionary emergence of human life history. In humans and other species, testosterone is often a mediator of life history trade-offs between mating/competition and parenting. There is also evidence that lower testosterone men may often engage in greater prosocial behavior compared to higher testosterone men. Given the evolutionary importance of paternal care and heightened cooperation to human life history, human fathers’ testosterone may be linked to these two behavioral domains, but they have not been studied together. We conducted research among highly egalitarian Congolese BaYaka foragers and compared them with their more hierarchical Bondongo fisher-farmer neighbors. Testing whether BaYaka men’s testosterone was linked to locally-valued fathering roles, we found that fathers who were seen as better community sharers had lower testosterone than less generous men. BaYaka fathers who were better providers also tended to have lower testosterone. In both BaYaka and Bondongo communities, men in marriages with greater conflict had higher testosterone. The current findings from BaYaka fathers point to testosterone as a psychobiological correlate of cooperative behavior under ecological conditions with evolutionarily-relevant features in which mutual aid and sharing of resources help ensure survival and community health.

Discussion

A major goal of these analyses was to test for relationships between T and locally-defined measures of fathering quality in a small, egalitarian society. There has been limited past research on the biology of fatherhood in forager societies in which men are often committed to caring for their immediate families but are also contributors to the broader community’s pooled resources and shared engagement in collective caregiving36,38,39,52. We found that BaYaka fathers who were seen as better community sharers and those in less conflicted marriages, respectively, had lower T than their peers. Below, we contextualize our findings for BaYaka fathers and comparisons with their fisher-farmer Bondongo neighbors within theoretical frameworks and empirical research related to the psychobiology of family life, cooperative behavior, and competition/risk taking.

BaYaka fathering rankings and T

Consistent with our predictions, we found that BaYaka fathers who were ranked by their peers as being more generous sharers with the broader community had lower T than men who were seen as poorer sharers. Gettler has argued that one potential evolutionary and psychobiological implication of some men experiencing declines in T when they became committed fathers is that this might enhance their ability to cultivate social capital within their communities through greater cooperative and generous behavior9. This proposed neuroendocrine role of reduced paternal T fits within broader conceptual models that emphasize the importance of cooperation, reciprocal altruism, and empathy to the evolution of human life history13,14,26,32. Our finding for BaYaka fathers’ sharing is consistent with this framework. This result also had a meaningful, medium-level effect size (standardized B = -0.52) that well exceeds the effect sizes from recent meta-analyses on human T and fathering and past meta-analyses examining the positive associations between T, competition, and dominance behaviors7,53,54. To our knowledge no other research has specifically explored the relationship between fathers’ T and cooperative behavior, beyond nuclear family childcare roles9.

However, relevant research outside of family life has found that men with lower T commonly show greater generosity and empathic capacities10,11,12. Generally consistent with these patterns, a small number of recent studies have also found that lower T individuals have more social support, feel socially closer to others, and generate new friendships within social networks55,56,57. In contrast, experimental studies involving T administration have shown that men with elevated T will also circumstantially behave generously if such behavior helps increase social status58,59. In BaYaka communities, men are viewed positively for their generosity and likely gain benefits from community sharing (e.g. through reciprocity)60,61. Yet, in this egalitarian setting there are strong cultural values and practices geared towards reducing status hierarchy (see Methods)30,33,62. Thus, we suggest that our finding linking lower T and better sharing for BaYaka men aligns with social dynamics within their cultural context as well as past psychobiological research on T and generosity.

In our full models, BaYaka men who were ranked as better providers also tended to have lower T than men who were seen as poorer providers. This finding was not statistically significant and the effect was smaller (standardized B = -0.21), compared to the results for Share. This may reflect the strong positive relationship between men’s scores for Share and Provider and is potentially consistent with the idea that community members are basing BaYaka men’s rankings as providers at least partially on men’s sharing of acquired resources63. In addition, in multiple societies that still engage in foraging as a part of their routine subsistence, men who are better hunters often achieve some semblance of higher social status, despite egalitarian social norms, and hunting ability and reputation have been linked to higher fitness45. These competition- and status-related aspects of hunting in such societies could theoretically be linked to elevated T6,7,16. Indeed, among Amerindian Tsimane forager-horticulturalists men who achieved kills during hunts showed short-term increases in T, potentially reflecting these status-competition psychobiological effects37.

Meanwhile, in BaYaka communities, men who were skilled, successful elephant hunters (ntuma) are remembered historically as having had higher social standing in their communities. However, there were no ntuma in the community at the time of our data collection. Elephant hunting is now illegal and severely reduced in practice today and the importance of men’s hunting as a pathway to status is potentially attenuated in contemporary BaYaka communities. In comparison, local healers (nganga) and BaYaka council members remain prestigious positions within the contemporary community, and help foster cooperation through ceremony and conflict resolution64,65. Finally, we note that hunting is only one component of men’s provisioning in this setting, and our Provider ranking captures this broader breadth of subsistence activities, according to the participants’ characterizations30. Collectively, these issues help to highlight the relative dearth of studies on social neuroendocrine function among contemporary forager societies, limiting our ability to disentangle the importance of variation in status, cooperation and generosity, and paternal care in different societies36,38,39,52.

We also did not find a significant relationship between BaYaka men’s rankings as teachers and their T after adjustment for covariates. BaYaka fathers’ teaching involves direct interaction using a variety of behaviors, such as instruction and opportunity scaffolding66,67,68. Fathers have also been observed to do more teaching with very young children, whereas less of this “vertical transmission” from parents occurs for older children67,69. As direct caregivers, BaYaka fathers are often warm, nurturing, and patient33. This parenting style may be beneficial during teaching of young children and this type of nurturant direct care, especially with young children, is likely to be linked to lower paternal T, based on theory and past research elsewhere1,6,17,18. Thus the lack of a significant association and the relatively smaller effect size (standardized B = − 0.24) between men’s T and their teaching ran somewhat counter to our predictions. We do note that while teaching emerged as a locally-valued domain of fathering and may be significant for children developmentally70, BaYaka fathers may spend relatively less time engaged in teaching of their offspring, compared to other direct paternal care. For example, while Aka fathers were the second most important adult teachers of infants, their contribution was still much lower than those of mothers (12% vs. 59% of observed teaching). However, fathers’ teaching nearly exceeded all other adults combined (15%)66. Recent work by Lew-Levy and colleagues has shown that older BaYaka children and adolescents commonly accompany adults (not necessarily their parents) to forage71, and those trips afford opportunities for learning and teaching67,69. In future work, we hope to include further observational data on specific domains of men’s daytime direct care as well as family cosleeping, as these have been linked to lower or declining paternal T in multiple other settings20,22,23,24,25,72,73.

BaYaka and Bondongo fathering and T

Among BaYaka and Bondongo participants, there was a consistent emphasis that “good” fathers work to reduce conflict with their wives, as negative interactions between parents can lead to poor outcomes for children30,51,74. Despite this similar recognition of the importance of positive marital functioning in both societies, the two cultures have differing perceptions of the place of spousal conflict in day-to-day life, which align with broader cultural values in each community. Specifically, BaYaka are relatively gender egalitarian and value individual autonomy. They disapprove of conflict between wives and husbands and particularly have cultural mechanisms for attenuating and avoiding control of one partner over the other. Meanwhile, Bondongo communities are more hierarchical and patriarchal, thus men are generally higher in status and power than women, and disputes are seen as a part of normal day-to-day marital functioning30,51,74.

Based on these cultural differences, we predicted that Bondongo marital conflict would be more strongly related to men’s T than among BaYaka fathers. This prediction was not supported. Rather, we found a main effect for Dispute, such that men in both societies who were ranked as having more marital conflict with their spouses had higher T than men in more harmonious relationships. We also note that in the Dispute model focusing solely on BaYaka men we observed a complementary, stand alone finding relating greater marital conflict to higher T. These main effects potentially reflect that cultural variation in norms regarding the acceptability of marital conflict may have little effect on the actual frequency of such conflict. Our findings also align with findings elsewhere from a range of socio-ecological settings. For example, U.S. men with higher T reported that they felt less satisfied and committed to their relationships and had more marital conflict49,75, and in a large decade-long longitudinal U.S. study higher T men had greater risk of divorce48. Similarly, in a large longitudinal analysis from the Philippines, men with greater T functioning were more likely to experience relationship dissolution over a five-year period76. It is somewhat difficult to compare effect sizes across these varied studies. However, the bivariate correlation between marital conflict and men’s T in our combined sample (r = 0.33) is similar in size to the findings from Edelstein and colleagues’ (2014) research linking higher T to lower relationship satisfaction, investment, and commitment in the U.S. (rs = -0.29 to -0.36)49. In total, our findings add additional cross-cultural support to a growing body of literature linking higher T to poorer relationship functioning and outcomes in very different societies.

Finally, we did not find that the relationship between men’s Provider scores and T were significantly different between the two cultural groups. However, we do note that the slope of the lines relating men’s Provider rankings and T were in the opposite direction for men in the two communities (Bondongo: positive; BaYaka: negative). This reflects our past findings showing that Bondongo fathers who were rated as better providers had higher T than their peers77, and an opposite non-significant pattern linking lower T to higher Provider scores for BaYaka fathers in the present analyses. These patterns hint at the potential importance of cultural variation in social norms and complements foundational36 and recent39 anthropological work that similarly explored cross-cultural variation in fathers’ T.

Muller et al. (2009) found that Hadza forager fathers in Tanzania had lower T than non-fathers while among their Datoga pastoralist neighbors there was no significant difference for T between fathers and non-fathers. Building on this work, Alvarado et al. (2019) compared Hadza and Datoga men with Qom transitional foragers of Argentina. Relative to young Datoga fathers, Hadza and Qom men with children had lower T during their reproductive primes. The authors suggested that Datoga men’s elevated T as young fathers is particularly linked to the cultural practice of polygyny (i.e. involving competition) and the relative lack of routine contact between men and their families, due to men’s subsistence. Meanwhile, Qom and Hadza fathers more routinely engage in proximate interactions with their families and are generally serially monogamous39. In the present study, we need to be restrained in over-interpreting non-significant results. Yet, along this past research and other relevant work19,20,78, we hope our findings can help bring further attention to the potential importance of operationalizing cultural norms and practices in studies of social neuroendocrine function.

Limitations

There are limitations to the present study that merit attention. As we have discussed in past work from this study, our sample sizes of fathers were relatively small compared to some studies of paternal psychobiology in industrialized settings in more highly populated societies72,79,80,81,82. However, we also note that our pooled analyses (n = 45) and BaYaka sample size (n = 29) compare favorably to other recent work in this area25,72, especially research in similar societies39. That said, small sample sizes limit statistical power, as may have been the case in our moderation analyses predicting T from men’s provider rankings (Provider × ethnicity), and can also contribute to inflated effect sizes for statistically significant results83. While there has been substantial growth in the study of paternal psychobiology, much of the emerging research is in the U.S., Europe, and similar settings53,54. The present study makes an important, complementary contribution by focusing on these questions in two small-scale, subsistence-level societies, which differ politically, economically, and culturally from one another and from most prior study samples in this research area17. In that vein, as we have discussed in our past work from this site, smaller sample sizes are a research design trade-off that result from working at a highly remote field site with participants residing in small communities77. To that end, for each of the two communities, our sample of fathers represents ~ 90–100% of the eligible men in the village at the time of data collection. Moreover, to help attenuate sample size concerns, we collected repeated samples across participants and also used data analytical techniques that maximized the information from these repeated observations.

In addition, the BaYaka do not record their calendar ages, thus we estimated an approximate age based on a procedure from Diekmann and colleagues and with their assistance84. In validating their method, Diekmann et al. found the calculations were reliable within a year of known ages (median: 4 months; mean: 11 months) for another forager society, giving us confidence in the BaYaka calculated ages84. Still, because of inter-correlations between BaYaka age, T, and fathering rankings, the reliability of these age calculations could be potentially concerning in terms of adjusting our models for age. For BaYaka men, their calculated ages and T were qualitatively more strongly correlated (Rho = -0.46) than for the Bondongo (Rho = -0.34), who do record their ages. While populations can vary in age-related declines in T39,85, we suggest this is one helpful indicator of the validity of the calculated ages for BaYaka men. Moreover, the BaYaka age-T-rankings inter-correlations could pose potential issues for multi-collinearity for the independent variables in our regression models. Following each of our regression models, we calculated variance inflation factors (VIF) for the predictors. Although conventions can vary, it is common to use VIF of > 10 as an indicator of concerning multi-collinearity86, and the calculated values for the present analyses were well below this threshold, as we reported in the Results.

Finally, there was a minor unintended difference in the handling of the saliva samples our team collected from the participants in the two communities. During both field seasons (see Methods), we froze the saliva samples on site in portable liquid nitrogen dewars, and they remained frozen until shipment. The Bondongo samples were kept frozen throughout their transport to the U.S. During shipment of the BaYaka samples, we encountered a logistical problem, which resulted in the saliva samples going through a freeze–thaw cycle while in transit. All the BaYaka samples were exposed to identical conditions, and salivary T is generally robust to limited freeze–thaw cycles and short-term exposure to ambient temperature87,88, which attenuates concerns over this issue.