Saturday, December 4, 2021

Advancing mathematics by guiding human intuition with AI

Advancing mathematics by guiding human intuition with AI. Alex Davies, Petar Veličković, Lars Buesing, Sam Blackwell, Daniel Zheng, Nenad Tomašev, Richard Tanburn, Peter Battaglia, Charles Blundell, András Juhász, Marc Lackenby, Geordie Williamson, Demis Hassabis & Pushmeet Kohli. Nature volume 600, pages70–74, Dec 1 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04086-x

Abstract: The practice of mathematics involves discovering patterns and using these to formulate and prove conjectures, resulting in theorems. Since the 1960s, mathematicians have used computers to assist in the discovery of patterns and formulation of conjectures1, most famously in the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture2, a Millennium Prize Problem3. Here we provide examples of new fundamental results in pure mathematics that have been discovered with the assistance of machine learning—demonstrating a method by which machine learning can aid mathematicians in discovering new conjectures and theorems. We propose a process of using machine learning to discover potential patterns and relations between mathematical objects, understanding them with attribution techniques and using these observations to guide intuition and propose conjectures. We outline this machine-learning-guided framework and demonstrate its successful application to current research questions in distinct areas of pure mathematics, in each case showing how it led to meaningful mathematical contributions on important open problems: a new connection between the algebraic and geometric structure of knots, and a candidate algorithm predicted by the combinatorial invariance conjecture for symmetric groups4. Our work may serve as a model for collaboration between the fields of mathematics and artificial intelligence (AI) that can achieve surprising results by leveraging the respective strengths of mathematicians and machine learning.


Daily Memory Lapses and Affect: Mediation Effects on Life Satisfaction

Daily Memory Lapses and Affect: Mediation Effects on Life Satisfaction. Jennifer R. Turner, Jacqueline Mogle, Nikki Hill, Sakshi Bhargava & Laura Rabin. Journal of Happiness Studies, Dec 02 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-021-00481-3

Abstract: Memory lapses are a type of daily challenge that are common to most people and are associated with negative mood outcomes. How daily challenges are associated and linked to broad domains, like life satisfaction and well-being, has been underexamined. Life satisfaction is often assessed from a macro-level that emphasizes average differences over longer timeframes, yet daily experiences (i.e., micro-level) may accumulate to shape these characteristics. In the current study, we examined if daily memory lapses (e.g., difficulties with word-finding or forgetting a meeting) were associated with life satisfaction, and whether this relationship was mediated by the associated changes in positive and negative affect due to daily memory lapses. In a coordinated analysis of two datasets (N = 561, ages 25–93 years), we used multilevel structural equation modeling to assess how daily memory lapses may influence the broader outcome of global life satisfaction. The pattern of results was similar across datasets: memory lapses were associated with reduced positive affect and increased negative affect. Further, the daily affect associated with daily memory lapses significantly mediated the relationship between lapses and life satisfaction, while the direct relationship between memory lapses and life satisfaction was non-significant. This study provides support for the role of daily challenges, specifically memory lapses, influencing broader constructs such as psychological well-being by identifying the key factor of affective responses. Future work should identify other salient daily challenges, as well as explore if reducing the affective response to challenges through targeted interventions would mitigate impacts on distal functioning.


What does your favourite colour say about your personality? Not much

Jonauskaite, D., Thalmayer, A. G., Müller, L., & Mohr, C. What does your favourite colour say about your personality? Not much. Personality Science, [Accepted Manuscript]. Dec 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23668/psycharchives.5256

Abstract: The claim that favourite colours reveal individuals’ personalities is popular in the media yet lacks scientific support. We assessed this claim in two stages. First, we catalogued claims from six popular websites, and matched them to key Big Six/HEXACO trait terms, ultimately identifying 11 specific, systematic, testable predictions (e.g., higher Extraversion among those who prefer red, orange, yellow, pink, or turquoise). Next, we tested these predictions in terms of Big Six trait scores and reports of favourite and least favourite colours from 323 French-speaking participants. For every prediction (e.g., red-extraversion), we compared trait scores between participants who chose or did not choose the predicted colour using Welch's t-tests. We failed to confirm any of the 11 predictions. Further exploratory analyses (MANOVA) revealed no associations between colour preferences and personality trait. Favourite colours appear unrelated to personality, failing to support the practical utility of colour-based personality assessment.


Aguado and his team recently found that cells taken from the heart valve tissues of men and women with aortic valve disease respond very differently to the same drug

Developing Sex-specific Treatments for Heart Disease: UC San Diego bioengineer advances equity in science, and among scientists. Univ. of California at San Diego, Dec 2021. https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/developing-sex-specific-treatments-for-heart-disease

As a heart fails, a woman's ventricular wall increases in thickness relative to a man's. And in heart valve disease, men show more calcified tissue growth, while women develop more fibrotic, scar-like tissue. Yet, treatments for both diseases remain strikingly similar for both men and women, despite the differences in disease progression.

Brian Aguado, a professor of bioengineering at the University of California San Diego, aims to change that. He is studying sex-specific differences in disease—starting with cardiovascular disease—from the molecular scale all the way up to the organism level. He uses bioengineering tools to develop more relevant, sex-specific models and treatments for cardiovascular disease, enabling better clinical outcomes for patients who have long been ignored.

“Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in men and women, but we still don’t fully understand the mechanisms that cause it—especially in women—simply because our models for understanding disease are largely male biased,” said Aguado, one of the 27 new faculty who joined the Jacobs School of Engineering in the last two years. “This has created a gap in understanding as far as what makes men and women go through cardiovascular disease differently and how we can address that head on.”

And Aguado doesn’t just focus on equity in his research. He’s also a strong advocate of equity and diversity among the researchers doing this work, and co-founded the LatinX in Biomedical Engineering (LatinXinBME) community to support diversity within the scientific community.

“In academic spaces, I feel like a lot of folks are encouraged to assimilate—to adopt the current average,” said Aguado. “I think it's super important to bring your whole self to the workplace, and hope that my lab can inspire populations historically excluded from the sciences to do work that supports their respective communities.”


Diversifying the biomedical field and workforce

Aguado co-founded the LatinxinBME community with friend and fellow scientist of Colombian descent Ana Maria Porras, now a professor at the University of Florida, after a conference in 2018 helped them realize the value of community in fighting feelings of isolation. What started as a small Slack group to help these LatinX researchers keep in touch has now grown to a community of more than 300 members from around the country, seeking mentorship, advice, and a sense of inclusion.


“We try to help each other through key transition points in our careers: from undergraduate to grad school; grad school to postdocs; postdocs to faculty; we share with each other what life is like, and any advice we can give. It’s been a beautiful tool and community for mentorship and helping each other through academic and industry careers,” said Aguado.

The group has now established an executive board, and holds regular research symposia along with social and mentorship events. The sense of inclusion he found through LatinXinBME was also one reason Aguado felt UC San Diego was the best place for his research, and himself, to thrive.

“I’m first-generation Colombian American, so I've just always been immersed in Colombian culture at home, but at the same time have come to realize that it’s a rarity in academic spaces,” he said. “The fact that I have colleagues here at UC San Diego that speak Spanish, it means a lot. That feeling of inclusion just has helped me in so many ways that it feels like LatinXinBME is a way I can create space to welcome people to academic spaces and help them feel like they are not alone.”

Aguado said it’s no accident that he’s working toward equity through his scientific and outreach efforts.

“I see this marriage between the diversity work I do with LatinXinBME and increasing equity in science through social means, but then also increasing it in science through my lab. That’s another reason UC San Diego is such a good fit for me, because I feel that both of these aspects are valued in this academic community.”


One-size-fits-all vs. precision medicine

Aguado’s scientific goal sits in between two healthcare paradigms: one-size-fits-all treatments that ignore differences based on sex, race, and age; and precision medicine, with treatments tailored down to the individual level. While the goals of precision medicine are worth exploring, Aguado said he has concerns about how accessible this level of care will be to the general population, and in particular, to underserved communities.


He envisions a more effective middle ground.

“My long-term vision is to not just focus on sex as a variable; I think we can also incorporate age and ancestry into our models, really embracing the whole idea of precision medicine but not making it so specific to individual patients. Instead, we could think of how we can stratify patients into groups and take into account what makes us unique biologically, so that we can better cater treatments to certain populations.”

Gender is another variable that Aguado considers, particularly as it relates to transgender people’s health outcomes with everything from hormone therapy treatments, to molecular differences impacting cardiovascular disease outcomes.

His current work on sex-specific differences in cardiovascular disease is a first step toward this larger goal. To understand how and why heart diseases affect men and women differently, and how we can develop more tailored treatments for them, Aguado and his team of student researchers study sex-based differences at a variety of scales, from within single cells, to the extracellular matrix, and to the immune system, tissue and organism level.


Studying sex-based differences

At the smallest scale, Aguado and his team recently found that cells taken from the heart valve tissues of men and women with aortic valve disease respond very differently to the same drug. Using hydrogel biomaterials developed in his lab, they were able to tie some of these differences in response to genes on the cell’s X chromosome, explaining why female cells—which have two X chromosomes—express increased activity. They’re now working to understand how genetic and epigenetic changes caused by these sex chromosomes can lead to changes in cell behavior, and ultimately study how these changes could be harnessed to impact healing after a cardiac event.

Moving up from understanding the cellular to the extracellular level—the complex cocktail of proteins, hormones and biochemicals that surround cells—Aguado collaborates with cardiologists to collect serum samples from patients with aortic valve disease. He found that using this extracellular serum to culture cells resulted in cells with different behaviors based on the sex of the patient.

“We have provided this really nice bridge between in vitro disease modeling and in vivo patient outcomes, simply by taking into account these sex-specific extracellular components,” he said.

While understanding what underpins these differences is a scientific challenge, the biggest hurdle is simply making it a priority to incorporate both male and female models into research.

“It’s not hard, you just need to think about it,” said Aguado. “For example, in my previous lab work, we would isolate cells from pig hearts, but we did not know the biological sex of the hearts. After consulting the literature and recognizing sex differences in the heart, I called up the meat company that sent the hearts, and asked if they could ship separate boxes of male and female hearts. To my surprise, they said, “no problem.” It just takes initiative to acknowledge that there are these clinical differences between the sexes, and incorporate that into your studies.”


Developing new treatments

All this information that Aguado and other researchers are learning about sex-specific differences at the cellular, extracellular, immune system and organ levels, is setting the stage to not only prescribe existing treatments more effectively based on sex, but to also develop new ones.

For example, one project that Aguado plans to tackle is developing polymer scaffolds—sponge-like biomaterials—that have been engineered to recruit certain populations of immune cells as a strategy to control the male or female immune response after cardiac injury, and improve tissue regeneration after a heart attack.

Modulating the immune system in this way to encourage optimum healing based on what we know about how sex impacts cardiovascular disease and healing would be a crowning achievement.

“I believe we can find a middle ground between something that might work for large groups of people but is missing certain populations—like cardiovascular disease which has been largely based on male animal models—versus a completely customized approach that might not be accessible for every patient. If my work can show that there are more effective ways to treat certain groups of patients, then I’ll feel like I made an impact. Because at the very least we’re not ignoring 50 percent of the population with our research.”


Participants feel more positive when in the presence of others; however, mood enhancement for women only occurred when the task was nondemanding; in the case of life satisfaction, only women were sensitive to the presence of others

Feeling better in the presence of others: It may depend on whether you are a man or a woman. Teresa Garcia-Marques, Marília Prada, Ricardo Fonseca, Alexandre Fernandes. Analise Psicologica, Vol 39, No 2 (2021), Dec 2021. http://publicacoes.ispa.pt/index.php/ap/article/view/1829

Abstract: Previous research has suggested that it is good to have other people around us. Indeed, there seems to be a generally positive impact of the presence of others on individuals’ physical and psychological well-being. In the current work, we examine if these positive experiences may be promoted by the mere presence of nonsignificant others in our environment, during a brief period. Specifically, in two experiments, we compared how being in the presence of others (co-action) versus being alone impacts how participants feel at the moment (mood, Experiment 1) and how satisfied they feel about their lives (general well-being, Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, we also manipulated the nature of the task (i.e., demanding/threatening vs. nondemanding). Both experiments revealed that participants feel more positive when in the presence of others. However, important gender differences occurred: mood enhancement for women (vs. men) only occurred when the task was nondemanding. In the case of life satisfaction, only women were sensitive to the presence of others. We discuss how these effects inform the social facilitation literature.

Keywords: Social facilitation, Well-being, mood, Gender differences.



The prevalence of aphantasia (imagery weakness) in the general population: Prevalence of 3.9%, the most extreme aphantasia subtype (absent imagery) has a prevalence of 0.8%

The prevalence of aphantasia (imagery weakness) in the general population. C. J. Dance, A. Ipser, J. Simner. Consciousness and Cognition, Volume 97, January 2022, 103243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.concog.2021.103243

Highlights

• Establishes the first replicated prevalence of aphantasia (visual imagery weakness).

• Aphantasia (absent or dim/vague imagery – measured using the VVIQ) has a prevalence of 3.9%.

• The most extreme aphantasia subtype (absent imagery) has a prevalence of 0.8%.

• Prevalence is based on the measure/diagnostic threshold in line with contemporary aphantasia literature.

• This prevalence rate can now serve as a fundamental underpinning of future aphantasia research.

Abstract: Visual mental imagery is the ability to create a quasi-perceptual visual picture in the mind’s eye. For people with the rare trait of aphantasia, this ability is entirely absent or markedly impaired. Here, we aim to clarify the prevalence of aphantasia in the general population, while overcoming limitations of previous research (e.g., recruitment biases). In Experiment 1, we screened a cohort of undergraduate students (n502) using the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire (Marks, 1973) and found that 4.2% had aphantasia. To establish the reliability of our estimate, we then screened a new sample of people (n502) at an online crowdsourcing marketplace, again finding that approximately four percent (3.6%) had aphantasia. Overall, our combined prevalence from over a thousand people of 3.9% – which shows no gender bias – provides a useful index for how commonly aphantasia occurs, based on measures and diagnostic thresholds in line with contemporary aphantasia literature.

Keywords: AphantasiaImageryPrevalenceImaginationVVIQ


Thursday, December 2, 2021

Examining effects within the same individuals over time indicated that climate concern predicted a small residual increase in psychological distress, but not in life satisfaction, one year later

Longitudinal relations between climate change concern and psychological wellbeing. Sarah E. McBride et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology, Volume 78, December 2021, 101713. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101713

Highlights

.  Concerns about climate change effects may negatively impact psychological wellbeing

.  Detrimental effects of climate concern might be stronger for younger people

.  Pre-registered longitudinal links between climate concern and wellbeing are reported

.  Climate concern leads to residual increase in psychological distress one-year later

.  No effect observed for life satisfaction, and effects were not moderated by age

Abstract: Concerns about the effects of climate change are mainstream, and the climate crisis might have greater psychological impact on younger people. We hypothesise that climate concern will have detrimental links with psychological wellbeing over time, and that this association will be more pronounced among younger adults. We test our pre-registered predictions using two waves of an annual national probability panel study—the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Survey (N = 13,453). Cross-lagged models examining effects within the same individuals over time indicated that climate concern predicted a small residual increase in psychological distress, but not in life satisfaction, one year later. However, there was no evidence that the associations varied across age. These longitudinal findings indicate a novel link between climate concern and psychological distress, which is apparent across the adult lifespan.

Keywords: Climate changeStressAgeLongitudinalCross-lagged modelModeration


How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks? Not very, we find that weather disasters over the last quarter century had insignificant or small effects on U.S. banks’ performance

How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks? Kristian S. Blickle, Sarah N. Hamerling, and Donald P. Morgan. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Report Number 990 November 2021. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr990

Abstract: Not very. We find that weather disasters over the last quarter century had insignificant or small effects on U.S. banks’ performance. This stability seems endogenous rather than a mere reflection of federal aid. Disasters increase loan demand, which offsets losses and actually boosts profits at larger banks. Local banks tend to avoid mortgage lending where floods are more common than official flood maps would predict, suggesting that local knowledge may also mitigate disaster impacts.

JEL: G21, H84


5 Conclusion

More extreme weather is one potential vector from climate change to bank and financial stability. It is a standard, prominent arrow in diagrams showing potential transmission mechanisms. Our findings suggest the disaster channel is not likely a material source of instability for banks. Even very small banks facing extreme disasters are not substantially threatened.

This resilience seems inherent to some degree because disasters increase the demand for loans. Earnings on new loans helps offset losses on loans on the books. In fact, income for larger banks increase after disasters. Local banks also manage to limit exposure to high risk areas, perhaps reflecting their greater knowledge of such risks. Those endogenous factors seem to buttress banks more than federal disaster assistance. Insurance is another likely mitigating factor that we do not explore. That is worthwhile topic future research.

For policymakers, our findings suggest that potential transition risks from climate change warrant more attention than physical disaster risks.


Rates of positive changes related to therapy varied between 26.6% (relationship to parents) & 67.7% (improvement in depressed mood); deteriorations were related to physical well-being (13.1%), ability to work (13.1%) & vitality (11.1%)

Negative effects of psychotherapy: estimating the prevalence in a random national sample. Bernhard Strauss, Romina Gawlytta, Andrea Schleu and Dominique Frenzl. BJPsych Open, Volume 7, Issue 6, November 2021 , e186. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjo.2021.1025

Abstract

Background: Negative or adverse effects of psychological treatments are increasingly a focus of psychotherapy research. Yet, we still know little about the prevalence of these effects.

Aims: Starting from a representative national sample, the prevalence of negative effects and malpractice was determined in a subsample of individuals reporting psychotherapy currently or during the past 6 years.

Method: Out of an initial representative sample of 5562 individuals, 244 were determined to have had psychotherapy within the past 6 years. Besides answering questions related to treatment, its effects and the therapists, patients filled out the Negative Effects Questionnaire, items of the Inventory of Negative Effects of Psychotherapy reflecting malpractice and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire, and rated psychotherapeutic changes in different areas.

Results: Rates of positive changes related to therapy varied between 26.6% (relationship to parents) and 67.7% (improvement in depressed mood). Deteriorations were most commonly related to physical well-being (13.1%), ability to work (13.1%) and vitality (11.1%). Although patients generally reported a positive helping alliance, many of them reported high rates of negative effects (though not always linked to treatment). This was especially true of the experience of unpleasant memories (57.8%), unpleasant feelings (30.3%) and a lack of understanding of the treatment/therapist (19.3/18.4%). Indicators of malpractice were less common, with the exception that 16.8% felt violated by statements of their therapist.

Conclusions: This study helps to better estimate aspects of negative effects in psychotherapy ranging from deteriorations, specific effects and issues of malpractice that should be replicated and specified in future studies.

Discussion

Based upon the conclusion that our knowledge about negative effects of psychotherapy is still limited,Reference Parry, Crawford and Duggan1Reference Gerke, Meyrose, Ladwig, Rief and Nestoriuc6 one of the unmet needs is sufficient study of the type and quantity of negative effects of psychotherapy under naturalistic conditions. There are several approaches to reach the goal of acquiring more detailed data concerning negative effects. For example, CrawfordReference Crawford, Thana, Farquharson, Palmer, Hancock and Bassett5 approached psychotherapeutic services in England and Wales to survey patients receiving treatment within these services. Although this approach might result in a population close to being representative of psychotherapy patients in a specific health system, it would not be representative of the wider population.

Another approach would be to start by drawing a random sample from a national population and to filter those individuals who had received psychotherapeutic treatment in a certain time period. The latter approach was chosen in a study of Albani et alReference Albani, Blaser, Geyer, Schmutzer, Goldschmidt and Brähler18Reference Albani, Blaser, Geyer, Schmutzer and Brähler20 related to the German population. In contrast to our survey, that study focused on formal characteristics of psychotherapies, patients’ experiences with choosing and finding a therapist, and general figures related to the effectiveness of psychotherapy from the patients’ perspective. In their survey, Albani et al asked only a very small number of questions related to general opinions about the patients’ psychotherapists and did not explicitly focus on negative effects. The sampling method of the Albani et al study probably did not yield a sample representative of psychotherapy patients in Germany. On the other hand, by avoiding direct selection of these patients, the procedure likely resulted in an unbiased sample from which patient experiences could be derived.

So far, data related to the prevalence of psychotherapeutic change, change rates and the occurrence of negative effects are quite variable and do not allow aggregation owing to the different data sources and measures. To add data from a representative population, our study followed the model of Albani et al, selecting individuals from a random national sample of the German population and determining which had been treated with psychotherapy. This resulted in a sample of 244 individuals who were interviewed in detail – in contrast to Albani et al – with a focus on effectiveness, helping alliance and a description of negative effects.

In fact, the resulting sample had quite similar characteristics to those of the German population. The ratio of males to females appeared to be more balanced in our sample than in the Albani study and closer to the distribution of the national population. In a large clinical sample of German out-patients,Reference Altmann, Zimmermann, Kirchmann, Kramer, Fembacher and Bruckmayer30 the percentage of female patients was much higher than in Albani's studyReference Albani, Blaser, Geyer, Schmutzer and Brähler19,Reference Albani, Blaser, Geyer, Schmutzer and Brähler20 (77%), showing that the general population is different from the population using the psychotherapeutic system. Individuals in the under-45 age group were underrepresented whereas those of 45 to 65 years of age were overrepresented in our sample, compared with the general population. Compared with the national population, individuals in our sample had a higher educational level. This probably reflects selective mechanisms of patients’ access to the psychotherapeutic system.Reference Strauß31

Of the initial sample, 7.44% indicated experiences with psychotherapy during the prior 6 years. Although there are no exact estimates of the proportion of individuals seeking psychotherapeutic treatment in Germany, there are some figures for this percentage that can be used to for comparison. Rommel et alReference Rommel, Bretschneider, Kroll, Prütz and Thom32 reported that 11.3% of German females and 8.1% of males over 18 years of age sought psychotherapeutic or psychiatric help over the course of 1 year (Survey Health in Germany). A study of adult health in GermanyReference Rattay, Butschalowsky, Rommel, Prütz, Jordan and Nowossadeck33 reported that 5.3% of females and 3.2% of males between 18 and 79 years of age made use of psychotherapy in the public health system (i.e. attending licensed therapists with reimbursement of the costs by health insurance). Based on these comparative figures, we think that our sample reflects a realistic proportion of psychotherapy users.

Based on the data obtained in our interview study with the final sample of 244 (former) psychotherapy patients, we found a relatively positive evaluation of the therapeutic relationship using the HAQ,Reference Bassler, Potratz and Krauthauser22 which was comparable to that found by other studies. The reports of our sample were generally positive regarding the quality of the working alliance and trust in the therapeutic relationship. At least 80% of all individuals agreed at least to some extent with the positive formulations of the HAQ.

On the other hand, there were some indicators of problems in the therapeutic relationship. One of the most prominent indicators was the report that at least 19% thought that the treatment would not help and ended their therapy prematurely. Also of relevance is the finding that in 24.2% of those cases, the end of treatment was a proposal of the therapist. Although we have no information on whether these were negotiated or unilateral decisions, this finding raises concerns about the lack of participatory decision-making about when to end therapy.

Although we did not use standardised scales that are commonly used to assess treatment outcomes, our data suggest that ‘direct measurements’ of different fields susceptible to psychotherapeutic change indicate improvement rates between 26.6% and 67.6%. The improvement rates of common outcomes (i.e. interactions with others, improvement in depressed mood, personal development), reported by more than 60% of the individuals, particularly demonstrate that the sample might be representative of psychotherapy patients, as similar rates are reported in the research literature.Reference Lambert12

The improvement rates in our sample are also similar to those reported by Albani et al, with respect to both change rates and rates of deterioration as well as differences between single areas of change. However, the improvement rates in the Albani study (with a larger sample) were somewhat higher than those in our sample. For example, an improvement in depressed mood was reported by 67.6% of our sample and by 78.6% in the Albani study. The general evaluations of the treatments were also in line with those reported by Albani et al.

The primary focus of our study was an estimation of negative effects (or side-effects as negative effects paralleling correct treatment in the sense of Linden's classificationReference Linden3) of psychotherapies, with the NEQ as the core instrument. Twenty different negative effects could be attributed to the treatment or to other causes.

The survey results reported in our sample are comparable with those reported in different clinical samples with the NEQ; we found similar results to those of other studies using this method in different samples and psychotherapeutic settings. In a recent study, Rozental et alReference Rozental, Kottorp, Forsström, Mánsson, Boettcher and Anderson2 reported: ‘As for the rate of negative effects, the number of participants reporting negative effects in the current study was 50.9%, consistent with 58.7% among patients in a psychiatric setting who responded to the INEP’.Reference Rheker, Beisel, Kräling and Rief34 However, this number varies significantly between investigations, with rates as high as 92.9% among patients with obsessive–compulsive disorder assessed with the Side-effects of Psychotherapy Scale in a study by Moritz et al,Reference Moritz, Fieker, Hottenrott, Seeralan, Cludius and Kolbeck35 and as low as 5.2% in a national survey by Crawford et alReference Crawford, Thana, Farquharson, Palmer, Hancock and Bassett5 probing for ‘lasting bad effects from the treatment’. Hence, different studies assess a range of negative effects, from transient ‘side-effects’ to lasting harm, making it difficult to compare ratios directly. Even within a subtype of negative effect, different methods of assessment will yield different results, so accurate estimates are not yet available.

Finally, since we had limited resources, we restricted our investigation of malpractice and boundary violations in psychotherapy in this study to only the six items of the INEP. These items form a subscale of the instrument mainly developed to cover side-effects of psychotherapeutic interventions. In general, in our sample, the rates of boundary violations were very low, even lower than one would have estimated from the specific studies in this field. For example, Becker-Fischer and FischerReference Becker-Fischer and Fischer36 reported rates of sexual boundary violations in psychotherapies that were much higher than 5%, whereas in our sample such violations occurred in three of the 244 cases (1.2%).

Strengths and limitations

The main strength of this study was clearly the sampling procedure, which started with a large (>5000) sample representative of the German population and then sought to find individuals disclosing experience with psychotherapy in the German health system, currently or during the past 6 years. We used some of the items from a former survey focusing on more general aspects of psychotherapy and added (parts of) instruments specifically developed to capture negative effects (NEQ) or malpractice (INEP). These additions have shown good psychometric qualities in this and other studies and allow comparisons with other studies or sampling procedures. Compared with other studies, e.g. the Crawford et alReference Crawford, Thana, Farquharson, Palmer, Hancock and Bassett5 survey, we obtained much more detailed results on negative effects as opposed to global ‘lasting bad effects’.

Despite our best efforts, the final sample of 244 was rather small, although it was within the expected range for the use of psychotherapy in the population. Another limitation was the fact that 98 of the 244 participants were surveyed, on average, 2.63 years after completion of their psychotherapy. Of the 244, 139 had already completed their psychotherapy, among whom 98 provided the date of the end of therapy. Thus, the results may have been biased by recall effects. More specifically, there may have been a tendency to only remember adverse aspects of the treatment and neglect the positive ones, or to forget certain unwanted events that occurred several years ago. However, comparisons between those currently undergoing psychological treatment and those remembering their treatment retrospectively yielded only minor differences with respect to both general evaluations of psychotherapy and negative effects.

Moreover, as only 65% of eligible participants accepted the invitation to the interview, the results could be open to selection bias. For example, participants who were unhappy about their treatment might be more (or less) likely to respond to a study on the effects of psychotherapy or might exaggerate negative effects experienced during psychotherapy.

A comparison of demographic data from the recruited sample and the final sample revealed some minor differences regarding age distribution and educational level. However, participants were not recruited only on the basis of potential experiences of negative effects, as positive aspects of treatments were evaluated as well, limiting the risk of selection bias. Also, the response rate in our study was similar to those of other studies on negative effects of psychotherapy, which found rates of 59%Reference Gerke, Meyrose, Ladwig, Rief and Nestoriuc6 and 61%29; it was even much higher than the rate of 19% found in one study.Reference Crawford, Thana, Farquharson, Palmer, Hancock and Bassett5

Our results related to problematic issues such as boundary violations should encourage a detailed examination of patient complaints. So far, these have been mainly reported by certain institutions who serve as receiving agencies for psychotherapy-related complaints.Reference Khele, Symons and Wheeler37,Reference Kaczmarek, Passmann, Cappel, Hillebrand, Schleu and Strauss38

In the future, more research on the prevalence of negative effects would be useful. This would include a more systematic assessment of these effects in clinical trials.Reference Klatte, Strauss, Flückiger and Rosendahl8 It would be interesting to try to recruit a similar sample as that used in our study to estimate the occurrence of more subtle violations of borders and other problematic issues in psychotherapy. According to the studies relating to such complaints, these are much more common than severe ethical problems such as a sexual assault in the treatment room. Addressing such violations and intensifying the more general focus on negative effects would eventually enrich training, supervision and clinical practice with the goal of avoiding harm in psychotherapy.

Asexuals reported lower satisfaction, investment size, & commitment, and higher quality of alternatives, than did allosexual individuals across both romantic relationships & friendships

Asexuality and relationship investment: Visible differences in relationship investment for an invisible minority. Jared Edge, Jennifer Vonk & Lisa Welling. Psychology & Sexuality, Dec 1 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/19419899.2021.2013303

Abstract: Sexual attraction is a component of most romantic relationships, making it difficult to disentangle from other motives to invest in relationships. Despite the lack of sexual attraction that characterizes asexuality, many self-identified asexual individuals report the desire to enter a romantic relationship. These understudied individuals provide a unique opportunity to study relationship investment in the absence of sexual attraction. We compared relationship investment, a well-established aspect of interpersonal relationships, between asexual (n=139) and allosexual (n=224) individuals. Participants completed a modified Investment Model Scale, which examined satisfaction, quality of alternatives, investment size, and commitment in romantic relationships and friendships. Contrary to our prediction that asexual individuals would invest less than allosexual individuals in romantic relationships, but not in friendships, they reported lower satisfaction, investment size, and commitment, and higher quality of alternatives than did allosexual individuals across both types of relationships. Although lack of sexual attraction could explain lower investment scores in romantic relationships for asexual individuals, some other effect may be responsible for reported differential investment in friendships.

Keywords: Sexual OrientationAsexualityRomantic relationshipsFriendshipsRelationship Investment


We do not seem more responsive to evolutionary-based threats: The results of behavioral experiments pose a challenge to established theories, as they show faster reaction time to modern threats, which is the opposite of what some evolutionary theories predict

Snakes vs. Guns: a Systematic Review of Comparisons Between Phylogenetic and Ontogenetic Threats. Soheil Shapouri & Leonard L. Martin. Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology, Dec 2 2021. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40750-021-00181-5

Abstract

Objectives: The potential differences between phylogenetic threats (e.g., snakes) and ontogenetic threats (e.g., guns) can have a wide-ranging impact on a variety of theoretical and practical issues, from etiology of specific phobias to stimulus selection in psychophysiological studies, yet this line of research has not been systematically reviewed.

Methods: We summarize and synthesize findings from fear conditioning, illusory correlation, attention bias, and neuroimaging studies that have compared these two types of threats to human survival.

Results: While a few brain imaging studies reveal preliminary evidence for different brain networks involved in the processing of phylogenetic and ontogenetic threats, attention bias studies tentatively show faster reaction time for modern threats, illusory correlation bias is evident for both types of threats, and fear conditioning studies are far from conclusive.

Conclusions: The results of behavioral experiments, especially attention bias research, pose a challenge to established theories like biological preparedness and fear module, as they show faster reaction time to modern threats, which is the opposite of what some evolutionary theories predict. We discuss the findings in terms of other theories that might explain the same results and conclude with potential future directions.


Although discredited, the five stages of grief is mentioned in 60pct of sites included a description (from brief mention to detailed elaboration) of the those stages

Stages of Grief Portrayed on the Internet: A Systematic Analysis and Critical Appraisal. Kate Anne Avis, Margaret Stroebe and Henk Schut. Front. Psychol., December 2 2021. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.772696

Abstract: Kübler-Ross’s stage model of grief, while still extremely popular and frequently accepted, has also elicited significant criticisms against its adoption as a guideline for grieving. Inaccurate portrayal of the model may lead to bereaved individuals feeling that they are grieving incorrectly. This may also result in ineffectual support from loved ones and healthcare professionals. These harmful consequences make the presentation of the five stages model an important area of concern. The Internet provides ample resources for accessing information about grief, raising questions about portrayal of the stages model on digital resources. We therefore conducted a systematic narrative review using Google to examine how Kübler-Ross’s five stages model is presented on the internet. We specifically examined the prominence of the model, whether warnings, limitations and criticisms are provided, and how positively the model is endorsed. A total of 72 websites were eligible for inclusion in the sample. Our analyses showed that 44 of these (61.1%) addressed the model, indicating its continued popularity. Evaluation scores were calculated to provide quantitative assessments of the extent to which the websites criticized and/or endorsed the model. Results indicated low criticalness of the model, with sites often neglecting evaluative commentary and including definitive statements of endorsement. We conclude that such presentation is misleading; a definitive and uncritical portrayal of the model may give the impression that experiencing the stages is the only way to grieve. This may have harmful consequences for bereaved persons. It may alienate those who do not relate to the model. Presentation of the model should be limited to acknowledging its historical significance, should include critical appraisal, and present contemporary alternative models which better-represent processes of grief and grieving.

Discussion

Principal Findings

The purpose of this study was to gain better understanding of the presentation of Kübler-Ross’s five stages model on the internet. The concern to examine inclusion of the model on websites arose in large part from its critical assessment in scientific reviews and in the accounts of clinicians. Notably, scientific sources have drawn attention to the absence of a body of empirical research and lack of validity regarding the model. Clinicians have pointed to potential negative consequences for bereaved people who do not “conform” by going through the stages but who think that they should be experiencing them. In the face of these criticisms, it is important to explore how the model is presented to professionals and lay people in general, and to bereaved persons in particular. Technological advances have meant that the internet system is widely used for the giving to and seeking of support among bereaved persons, providing ample resources for accessing information about grief. This raises questions about the portrayal of the stages model through websites. We therefore conducted a systematic narrative review to examine the presentation of the five stages model of grief on the internet, investigating three research questions.

Our first research question addressed the prominence of the model; how frequently is it mentioned on websites providing information about grief? The results indicated the continued popularity of the model; 61.1% of websites included a description of the five stages, with accounts varying from brief mention to detailed elaboration of the model. This is a conservative estimate, given a further nine sites mentioned “stages” in general, indicating the possibility that nearly three quarters of all the sites referred to the model, at least non-specifically. This frequent inclusion is in line with Corr (20182019a) research results; the five stages were described in the majority of his sampled textbooks. Similarly, it seems to echo Sawyer et al. (2021) findings mentioned earlier, that roughly 68% of the general public and 44% of mental health professionals endorsed the stages. Furthermore, an exploration of the word count providing information about the five stages also highlighted the prominence of the model, with over a third of the sites devoting 50% or more of their word count to the stages. Taken together, these results raise the question why there is such continued attention to the model, especially given that there have also been notable criticisms. The popularity of the model may stem from its ability to create order during a time of complexity, resulting in a positive narrative where one prevails over the despair of grief, culminating in the final stage of acceptance. The following quote cited on one of the reviewed websites encapsulates this: ‘Stage theories “impose order on chaos, offer predictability over uncertainty, and optimism over despair”’ (Shermer, 2008, p. 6). However, as the same website goes on to conclude, the appeal of the stages model in creating a narrative of hope is not equivalent to scientific importance: “Stages are stories that may be true for the storyteller, but that does not make them valid for the narrative known as science” (p. 9).

While our results showed that the five stages were mentioned frequently, closer examination of the data suggests differences in the portrayal of the stages between the included domain extensions. In particular, Dutch domain extensions appeared to refer to the model less frequently than the other domain extensions. This finding suggests that different countries may regard the model differently. The reasons behind these apparent differences are unclear, but one could speculate that a multitude of cultural and structural factors could play a role such as: underlying societal beliefs about death and dying, quality and quantity of educational programs providing information about issues surrounding grief, and ease of information accessibility, for example, to alternative models of grief.

Our second research question pertained to how the model was evaluated; what warnings, limitations and criticisms concerning the model were provided on the sites? Our exploration indicated that the most frequent types of warnings were those cautioning against the rigidity of the model, particularly nearly 60 percent of sites included warnings that the stages are non-linear and a half of the sites cautioned that not all five stages have to be experienced. This type of evaluation is also consistent with Corr (20182019a) analyses, which established that non-linearity and not having to experience all stages were the most commonly mentioned critiques in his sample of textbooks. However, close examination of these types of warnings showed that they often lack a critical stance, endorsing the existence of the model by giving the message that one will/should experience the stages, just not in a rigid manner with the five stages following on in a strict order. Moreover, as critics have pointed out, the word “stages” itself implies rigidity, such that warning against rigidity actually presents a confusing message. This is one of the model’s most contentious features, with proponents using non-linearity to underline the model’s broad interpretation possibilities and therefore wider application, while opponents have argued that it disqualifies the model. Friedman (2009) made the latter point on one of the websites in our sample:

We [have] compared the stages of a butterfly to the alleged stages of grief, to show the problem with any stage theories of grief. To wit: Stages in order to be called stages must go through an orderly progression, each and every time. Starting as an egg, a potential butterfly must go through the four stages Egg, Caterpillar (Larva), Pupa (Chrysalis) Adult (Imago). It cannot elect to skip the larval stage and jump right over to the pupal stage.

Elisabeth Kübler-Ross herself constantly stated that the stages didn’t all happen and not necessarily in order, if at all. We just can’t find a way to use the idea of stages which really are absolute—see Butterfly reference—for something as variegated as human grief (p. 11).

In addition to warnings of rigidity, our analysis established that a number of warnings of existence, limitations and criticisms of the five stages model were sometimes included on some of the websites, albeit very infrequently (the mean score for criticalness was 1.9 out of a possible total score of twelve points). The fact that a large portion of websites lacked any critical appraisal highlights concerns about the representation of the model, particularly with regard to the lack of evidence and the potential for harm. These concerns should give one pause for reflection about the use of the five stages model as a contemporary guideline for bereaved.

Our final research question explored how the model was endorsed; how positively was it presented on the websites? Our analysis uncovered a number of different types of endorsements, which was defined in our study as statements showing support or approval of the five stages model. The most frequent endorsements were definitive statements (statements of unconditional approval) regarding the existence of the stages. As our results showed, the concerns we mentioned above were again confirmed. The high frequency of definitive statements about the stages’ existence is of considerable significance, since it suggests that the stages are an actuality; wrong conclusions about the validity of the five stages can easily be drawn by those accessing certain websites. The concern that this can have potentially harmful consequences for bereaved persons remains. The definitive endorsement of many sites on the internet can easily be interpreted as conveying the message that those who do not experience the stages are grieving incorrectly. As indicated earlier, advertising these stages as a certainty for bereaved people is unfounded. The implications of uncritical acceptance of the five stages model should not be underestimated; as one of the authors of our sampled websites cautions:

As we have pointed out in past articles, Kübler-Ross defined these “phases” as those experienced by a person dealing with the diagnosis of a terminal illness, and not as stages faced by someone who has faced a significant emotional loss. This misconception of their intended purpose has frustrated many grievers who felt that failure to progress through them could leave them forever in misery (Moeller, 2017, p. 6).

Furthermore, a definitive portrayal of the model can result in ineffectual support from loved ones or healthcare professionals. Insights from research on social and group norms have shown that violation of norms can lead to negative emotional reactions like anger or blame (Ohbuchi et al., 2004Stamkou et al., 2019) as well as forms of social sanctions and punishment (Fehr and Fischbacher, 2004Falk et al., 2005Peters et al., 2017). A loved one or healthcare professional may, therefore, react in a negative way if they feel that the bereaved individual is violating the norm by not going through the stages. These reactions could result in bereaved people feeling alienated, an implication that is particularly worrying given that various studies have demonstrated the protective effect of social support in preventing negative effects in bereaved individuals (e.g., Hibberd et al., 2010Çakar, 2020Chen, 2020). Bereaved people themselves may also feel that there is something wrong with them for not grieving in line with the norm and may seek therapy to help move through the stages and grieve in the “correct” way. These endeavors may be unnecessary, especially considering that psychological interventions appear to be hardly or not effective for the bereaved population for whom there is no other indication (yet) than that they have lost a significant person (Schut et al., 2001Wittouck et al., 2011). To put it concisely, presenting the five stages model in an uncritical and definitive light could lead to the belief that those who do not experience the stages are abnormal, a misconception which has important implications and potential harmful consequences for bereaved individuals.

In general, results showed low criticality with sites which often included definitive statements of endorsement neglecting such warnings. Our conclusion is that the model is not being accurately portrayed to bereaved people, with the dangers of using it as a contemporary guideline largely being ignored.

Limitations of This Analysis

Limitations of this analysis need to be addressed. First, we noted the gap in time between the selection and analyses of the websites. While the majority of the sites were still operational when the data were analyzed (and, therefore, still relevant and accessible to the public as currently as 2020), an updated analysis could give insight into recent trends concerning the portrayal of the five stages model. This would be especially interesting in light of the recent corona pandemic. Many noteworthy questions have arisen regarding how the portrayal of grief has changed as a result of COVID-19, including ones about the application of theoretical approaches (cf., Stroebe and Schut, 2020). An analysis of information on grief-related websites subsequent to the current pandemic would add further insights into how understandings of grief have changed following COVID-19. For example, one relevant question in the context of our study is whether the sites have continued to advocate the five stages model under these changed circumstances.

Another limitation relates to the restriction to English and Dutch language websites. While this analysis ensured that both developing countries and non-English sites were represented, one avenue for future research could be to include more country-specific domain extensions, in order to achieve further representation of different cultures and languages and establish the influence of the five stages model in other parts of the world.

Additionally, an important limitation of this study has to do with the review process itself. Analysis of written text can lend itself to subjective interpretation (Given, 2008, p. 120–122). Certain warnings, limitations, critiques and endorsements were, for example, worded more implicitly than others, making them open to interpretation. An example of this is seen in the following text taken from one of our websites: “You may go back and forth between them or skip one or more stages altogether” (What is normal grieving WebMD, n.d., p. 4). While the text is not explicitly stating that the stages are non-linear, the phrase “back and forth” could be interpreted as implicitly implying non-linearity. An analysis of the researchers’ thought processes behind the determination of the different criticisms and endorsements revealed that while there was often agreement concerning the presence of a criticism or endorsement on a website (interrater agreement was nearly 96 percent), there was occasional disagreement about the exact statement representing these criticisms and endorsements. One possible explanation for this is that websites may possess multiple phrasing of the same premise, resulting in certain statements resonating with a particular individual more than others, but culminating in overall agreement of the message of the website. However, such differences occurred with too little frequency for the patterns of results to be affected.

Finally, two additional avenues for future research should be considered. Firstly, while the use of quantitative data was deemed appropriate for this study, future studies incorporating qualitative data may add additional insights (e.g., qualitative research may be better-able to establish whether the overall thrust of the five stages presentation in the website is endorsing, while only “lip service” is paid to criticisms). Furthermore, future research could play an important role in further validating the scoring system used in this study in the context of both digital and non-digital informational resources.