Conference on macrofinancial linkages and their policy implications

Bank of Korea - Bank for International Settlements - International Monetary Fund: joint conference concludes on macrofinancial linkages and their policy implications

April 12, 2012

http://www.bis.org/press/p120412.pdf
 

The Bank of Korea, the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund have today brought to a successful conclusion their joint conference on "Macrofinancial linkages: Implications for monetary and financial stability policies". Held on April 10-11 in Seoul, Korea, the event brought together central bankers, regulators and researchers to discuss a variety of topics related to interactions between the financial system and the real economy. The goal of the conference was to promote a continuing dialogue on the policy implications of recent research findings.

The conference programme included the presentation and discussion of research on the following issues:

• Banks, shadow banks and the macroeconomy;
• Bank liquidity regulation;
• The macroeconomic impact of regulatory measures;
• Macroprudential policies in theory and in practice;
• Monetary policy and financial stability.

Efforts to recast monetary and financial stability policies to reduce the frequency and severity of financial crises have focused attention on the interactions between the financial system and the macroeconomy. The crisis demonstrated that financial system weaknesses can have sudden and long-lasting macroeconomic effects.

The conference concluded with a panel discussion chaired by Stephen Cecchetti (BIS), and including Jun Il Kim (Bank of Korea), Jan Brockmeijer (IMF), Hiroshi Nakaso (Bank of Japan), and David Fernandez (JP Morgan). The panel discussion focused on the lessons or guideposts for the formulation and implementation of macroprudential and monetary policies that can be drawn from the intensive research efforts on macrofinancial issues in recent years, as well as on the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of policy measures. The roundtable also included a discussion of weaknesses in our understanding of macrofinancial linkages and touched on priorities for future research, analysis, and continuing cooperation between central banks, regulatory authorities, international organisations and academics.

Introducing the conference, Choongsoo Kim, Governor of the Bank of Korea, said, "Since major countries' measures to reform financial regulations, including Basel III of the BCBS, focus mostly on the prevention of crisis recurrence, we need to continuously monitor and track how these measures will affect the sustainability of world economic growth in the medium- and long-term. In doing so, we should be careful so that the strengthening of financial regulation does not weaken the benign function of finance, which is to drive the growth of the real economy through seamless financial intermediation. Moreover, in today's more closely interconnected world economy, the strengthening of financial regulation with a primary focus on advanced countries does not equally affect the financial system in emerging market countries with their significantly different financial structure. Hence, in examining the implementation of regulations, an in-depth analysis should be conducted of how these regulations will affect the financial industries of emerging market countries and all other countries other than the advanced economies and their careful monitoring is called for."

Stephen Cecchetti, Economic Adviser and Head of the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, remarked that "It is important that we continue to learn about the mechanisms through which financial regulation helps to stabilize the economic and financial system. We are not only exploring the effectiveness of existing tools, but also working to fashion new ones. Doing this means refining the intellectual framework, including both the theoretical models and empirical analysis, that forms the basis for macroprudential policy and microprudential policy, as well as conventional and unconventional monetary policy. The papers presented and discussed in this conference are part of the foundation of this new and essential stability-oriented policy framework."

Jan Brockmeijer, Deputy Director of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, added that "All the institutions involved in developing macroprudential policy frameworks are on a learning curve both with regard to monitoring systemic risks and in using tools to limit such risks. In such circumstances, sharing of views and experiences is crucial to identifying best practices and moving up the learning curve quickly. The Fund is eager to help its members in this regard, and the conference co-organised by the Fund is one way to serve this purpose."

IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Risks of stricter prudential regulations

IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Apr 2012
http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2012/01/index.htm

Chapter 3 of the April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets. Chapter 4 investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.

Excerpts from Ch. 3, Safe Assets: Financial System Cornerstone?:

In the future, there will be rising demand for safe assets, but fewer of them will be available, increasing the price for safety in global markets.  In principle, investors evaluate all assets based on their intrinsic characteristics. In the absence of market distortions, asset prices tend to reflect their underlying features, including safety. However, factors external to asset markets—including the required use of specific assets in prudential regulations, collateral practices, and central bank operations—may preclude markets from pricing assets efficiently, distorting the price of safety. Before the onset of the global financial crisis, regulations, macroeconomic policies, and market practices had encouraged the underpricing of safety. Some safety features are more accurately reflected now, but upcoming regulatory and market reforms and central bank crisis management strategies, combined with continued uncertainty and a shrinking supply of assets considered safe, will increase the price of safety beyond what would be the case without such distortions.

The magnitude of the rise in the price of safety is highly uncertain [...]

However, it is clear that market distortions pose increasing challenges to the ability of safe assets to fulfill all their various roles in financial markets. [...] For banks, the common application of zero percent regulatory risk weights on debt issued by their own sovereigns, irrespective of risks, created perceptions of safety detached from underlying economic risks and contributed to the buildup of demand for such securities. [...]

[...] Although regulatory reforms to make institutions safer are clearly needed, insufficient differentiation across eligible assets to satisfy some regulatory requirements could precipitate unintended cliff effects—sudden drops in the prices—when some safe assets become unsafe and no longer satisfy various regulatory criteria. Moreover, the burden of mispriced safety across types of investors may be uneven. For instance, prudential requirements could lead to stronger pressures in the markets for shorter-maturity safe assets, with greater impact on investors with higher potential allocations at shorter maturities, such as banks.

Money and Collaterall, by Manmohan Singh & Peter Stella

Money and Collateral, by Manmohan Singh & Peter Stella
IMF Working Paper No. 12/95
Apr 2012
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25851.0

Summary: Between 1980 and before the recent crisis, the ratio of financial market debt to liquid assets rose exponentially in the U.S. (and in other financial markets), reflecting in part the greater use of securitized assets to collateralize borrowing. The subsequent crisis has reduced the pool of assets considered acceptable as collateral, resulting in a liquidity shortage. When trying to address this, policy makers will need to consider concepts of liquidity besides the traditional metric of excess bank reserves and do more than merely substitute central bank money for collateral that currently remains highly liquid.

Excerpts:

Introduction

In the traditional view of a banking system, credit and money are largely counterparts to each other on different sides of the balance sheet. In the process of maturity transformation, banks are able to create liquid claims on themselves, namely money, which is the counterpart to the less liquid loans or credit.2 Owing to the law of large numbers, banks have—for centuries— been able to safely conduct this business with relatively little liquid reserves, as long as basic confidence in the soundness of the bank portfolio is maintained.

In recent decades, with the advent of securitization and electronic means of trading and settlement, it became possible to greatly expand the scope of assets that could be transformed directly, through their use as collateral, into highly liquid or money-like assets. The expansion in the scope of the assets that could be securitized was in part facilitated by the growth of the shadow financial system, which was largely unregulated, and the ability to borrow from non-deposit sources. This meant deposits no longer equaled credit (Schularick and Taylor, 2008). The justification for light touch or no regulation of this new market was that collateralization was sufficient (and of high quality) and that market forces would ensure appropriate risk taking and dispersion among those educated investors best able to take those risks which were often tailor made to their demands. Where regulation fell short was in failing to recognize the growing interconnectedness of the shadow and regulated sectors, and the growing tail risk that sizable leverage entailed (Gennaioli, Shleifer and Vishny, 2011).

Post-Lehman, there has been a disintermediation process leading to a fall in the money multiplier. This is related to the shortage of collateral (Singh 2011). This is having a real impact—in fact deleveraging is more pronounced due to less collateral. Section II of the paper focuses on money as a legal tender, the money multiplier; then we introduce the adjusted money multiplier. Section III discusses collateral, including tail-risk collateral.  Section IV tries to bridge the money and collateral aspects from a “safe assets” angle. Section V introduces collateral chains and describes the economics behind the private pledged collateral market. Section VI brings the monetary and collateral issues together under an overall financial lubrication framework. In our conclusion (section VII) we offer a useful basis for understanding monetary policy in the current environment.



Conclusion

“Monetary” policy is currently being undertaken in uncharted territory and may change some fundamental assumptions that link monetary and macro-financial policies. Central banks are considering whether and how to augment the apparently ‘failed’ transmission mechanism and in so doing will need to consider the role that collateral plays as financial lubrication (see also Debelle, 2012). Swaps of “good” for “bad” collateral may become part of the standard toolkit.31 If so, the fiscal aspects and risks associated with such policies—which are virtually nil in conventional QE swaps of central bank money for treasuries—are important and cannot be ignored. Furthermore, the issue of institutional accountability and authority to engage in such operations touches at the heart of central bank independence in a democratic society.

These fundamental questions concerning new policy tools and institutional design have arisen at the same time as developed countries have issued massive amounts of new debt.  Although the traditional bogeyman of pure seigniorage financing, that is, massive monetary purchases of government debt may have disappeared from the dark corners of central banks, this does not imply that inflation has been forever arrested. Thus a central bank may “stand firm” yet witness rises in the price level that occur to “align the market value of government debt to the value of its expected real backing.” Hence current concerns as to the potential limitations fiscal policy places on monetary policy are well founded and indeed are novel only to those unfamiliar with similar concerns raised for decades in emerging and developing countries as well as in the “mature” markets before World War II.

IMF Background Material for its Assessment of China under the Financial Sector Assessment Program

IMF Releases Background Material for its Assessment of China under the Financial Sector Assessment Program
Press Release No. 12/123
April 5, 2012

A joint International Monetary Fund (IMF) and The World Bank assessment of China's financial system was undertaken during 2010 under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) report, which is the main IMF output of the FSAP process, was discussed by the Executive Board of the IMF at the time of the annual Article IV discussion in July 2011.

The FSSA report was published on Monday, November 14, 2011. As background for the FSSA, comprehensive assessments were undertaken by the FSAP mission of the financial regulatory infrastructure and the Detailed Assessment Reports of China's observance with international financial standards were prepared during the FSAP exercise. At the request of the Chinese authorities, these five reports are being released today.

The documents published are as follows:

Detailed Assessment of Observance Reports

1. Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
2. Observance of IAIS Insurance Core Principles
3. Observance of IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
4. Observance of CPSS Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems
5. Observance of CPSS-IOSCO Recommendations for Securities Settlement Systems and Central Counterparties

The FSAP is a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of a country’s financial sector. The FSAP findings provide inputs to the IMF’s broader surveillance of its member countries’ economies, known as Article IV consultations. The focus of the FSAP assessments is to gauge the stability of the financial sector and to assess its potential contribution to growth. To assess financial stability, an FSAP examines the soundness of the banks and other financial institutions, conducts stress tests, rates the quality of financial regulation and supervision against accepted international standards, and evaluates the ability of country authorities to intervene effectively in case of a financial crisis. Assessments in developing and emerging market countries are done by the IMF jointly with the World Bank; those in advanced economies are done by the IMF alone.

This is the first time the Chinese financial system has undergone an FSAP assessment.

Since the FSAP was launched in 1999, more than 130 countries have volunteered to undergo these examinations (many countries more than once), with another 35 or so currently underway or in the pipeline. Following the recent global financial crisis, demand for FSAP assessments has been rising, and all G-20 countries have made a commitment to undergo regular assessments.

For additional information on the program, see the Factsheet and FAQs.

Original link: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12123.htm

Management Tips from the Wall Street Journal

Management Tips from the Wall Street Journal


Developing a Leadership Style

        Leadership Styles
        What do Managers do?
        Leadership in a Crisis – How To Be a Leader
        What are the Common Mistakes of New Managers?
        What is the Difference Between Management and Leadership?
        How Can Young Women Develop a Leadership Style?

Managing Your People

        How to Motivate Workers in Tough Times
        Motivating Employees
        How to Manage Different Generations
        How to Develop Future Leaders
        How to Reduce Employee Turnover
        Should I Rank My Employees?
        How to Keep Your Most Talented People
        Should I Use Email?
        How to Write Memos

Recruiting, Hiring and Firing

        Conducting Employment Interviews – Hiring How To
        How to Hire New People
        How to Make Layoffs
        What are Alternatives to Layoffs?
        How to Reduce Employee Turnover
        Should I Rank My Employees?
        How to Keep Your Most Talented People

Building a Workplace Culture

        How to Increase Workplace Diversity
        How to Create a Culture of Candor
        How to Change Your Organization’s Culture
        How to Create a Culture of Action in the Workplace

Strategy

        What is Strategy?
        How to Set Goals for Employees
        What Management Strategy Should I Use in an Economic Downturn?
        What is Blue Ocean Strategy?

Execution

        What are the Keys to Good Execution?
        How to Create a Culture of Action in the Workplace

Innovation

        How to Innovate in a Downturn
        How to Change Your Organization’s Culture
        What is Blue Ocean Strategy?

Managing Change

        How to Motivate Workers in Tough Times
        Leadership in a Crisis – How To Be a Leader
        What Management Strategy Should I Use in an Economic Downturn?
        How to Change Your Organization’s Culture

guides.wsj.com/management/

Encouraging workers to keep track of what they're doing can make them healthier and more productive

Employees, Measure Yourselves. By H. James Wilson
Encouraging workers to keep track of what they're doing can make them healthier and more productiveThe Wall Street Journal, Apr 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204520204577249691204802060.html

Imagine how much better workers could do their jobs if they knew exactly how they spend their day.

Suppose they could get a breakdown of how much time they spend actually working on their computer, as opposed to surfing the Web. Suppose they could tell how much an afternoon workout boosts their productivity, or how much a stressful meeting raises their heart rate.

Thanks to a new wave of technologies called auto-analytics, they can do just that. These devices—from computer software and smartphone apps to gadgets that you wear—let users gather data about what they do at work, analyze that information and use it to do their job better. They give workers a fascinating window into the unseen, unconscious little things that can make such a big difference in their daily work lives. And by encouraging workers to start tracking their own activities—something many already are doing on their own—companies can end up with big improvements in job performance, satisfaction and possibly even well-being.

The key word here is encouragement. It is not the same as insistence. Bosses should be careful to stay out of workers' way, letting employees experiment at their own pace and find their own solutions. They should offer them plenty of privacy safeguards along the way. Too much managerial interference could make the programs seem like Big Brother and dissuade workers from signing on. There's a big difference between employees wanting to measure themselves, and bosses demanding it.

Here's a look at three areas of auto-analytics that are gaining followers in the workplace—and that merit encouragement from managers.

Tracking Screen Time
Many companies monitor what their employees are doing on the computer all day, by watching network traffic or even taking screenshots at random times. But all that oversight is designed to make sure people aren't slacking off; it doesn't help them figure out how to do their jobs better. And besides, a lot of workers probably think it's kind of creepy to have someone watching over their shoulder.

On the other hand, workers are a lot more comfortable with close scrutiny when they're the ones doing the watching.

People are signing on in droves to a new technology called knowledge workload tracking—recording how you use your computer. Software like RescueTime measures things like how long you spend on an open window, how long you're idle and how often you switch from one window to another. The software turns all those measurements into charts so you can see where you're spending your time. From there, you can set up automatic alerts to keep yourself away from distractions; you might send yourself a message if you, say, spend too much time on Twitter.

Programs like these also let you look a lot deeper into your behavior. One employee I observed saw that he got a lot more done when he switched tasks at set intervals. So he had the software remind him to change things up every 20 minutes. (He also set up an algorithm that suggested the best activity to do next.)

Another employee, a programmer, thought his online chats were eating into his work time. So he tested the theory: He looked at how long he spent chatting during certain periods, then looked at how much code he wrote during those times. But in fact, the more he talked, the more code he wrote. Gabbing online with colleagues and customers helped his work.

Managers should encourage experiments and help workers get the ball rolling. They might, for instance, find workers who got good results from the software and have them give presentations to other employees.

Again, though, companies need to use a light touch in encouraging employees: Many workers might be reluctant to track what they do if they think the company might get access to the information, or use it against them. Companies should emphasize that this type of software usually comes with lots of privacy controls. Workers can often store their data in the cloud, for instance, or locally on their machines. In some cases, they can pause tracking and delete pieces of personal data they choose. Likewise, they can also create a list of sites that they want to track by name and label all the other sites they visit as generic.



Collecting Thoughts

Tracking clicks and keystrokes is one thing. But another set of tools goes one step deeper and lets employees track their mental performance—and maybe even improve it.

These tools come in a variety of styles. For example, there's Lumosity, from Lumos Labs Inc., an online system that serves up games employees can play during downtime at work. The games promise to develop memory, thinking speed, attention and problem-solving abilities.

You might have to sort a batch of words into two piles depending on whether or not they follow a certain rule. Or you might be presented with two equations and have to figure if the one on the left is greater than, less than or equal to the one on the right. The software will feed you tougher challenges once you've mastered one level of difficulty.

So far, that might not sound much different than other games you might play at the office. (Minesweeper, anyone?) The difference is tracking. The games offer a scorecard of your performance and let you follow changes in performance over time, so you can see if you're getting better or backsliding. You can also choose what skills you want to improve. If you're having trouble remembering things, for instance, you might ask for memory-boosting games. So, while it may seem like just another game, it can home in on skills you're trying to sharpen for work—and improve them.

Another set of tools promises to help with a couple of age-old problems: forgetting ideas or the context in which you thought of them (or having so many of them you can't decide which will work best for the task at hand).

The method, called cognitive mapping, powers software like TheBrain, from TheBrain Technologies LP. When you get an idea related to work, you type it into the software on your desktop or mobile device. You place it near related ideas by clicking on a visual map that shows clusters of concepts grouped together by category like constellations on your screen.

Let's say your job is designing products for a household-goods company, and you get an idea about a new kind of sponge. You might click on the cluster of ideas for kitchen-cleaning products, which covers mops and paper towels as well as sponges. Then you'd click on the smaller cluster of ideas about sponges and type in your new notion. You'd also be able to attach things like links to websites, photos and meeting notes.

Later on, if you need to come up with some ideas in a particular area, you might type in a few search terms to see the thoughts you've had on the topic and the clusters of ideas and information you originally associated with those terms. Thus, you not only have a historical record of your thoughts, but also detailed insight into the context in which they were created.

As with knowledge workload tracking, employers should encourage workers to use these systems and give them freedom to experiment. But companies can probably be more active in pushing these products, since they don't have the same Big Brother associations as tracking work. So managers might buy subscriptions for influential employees who can help seed interest across the company. If they think it's warranted, managers might even buy companywide subscriptions, as they do for other types of software.




The Physical Side

There's one area where employers are already doing a lot to encourage workers to track themselves: company-sponsored wellness programs. More than two-thirds of companies around the world run wellness programs, and self-tracking tools are fast becoming a common feature.

Usually, the third-party companies that manage the programs give workers tracking devices that can synch up with an external database through a smartphone or work computer. That way, employees can crunch their own data and come up with options for improving health and job performance.

For instance, you might wear a device like Jawbone's UP wristband, which tracks sleep quantity and quality. You could then analyze your data to see how different amounts of sleep affect your work. Do you close more sales on days when you get more quality sleep? Or do you post better numbers when you sacrifice some shut-eye to entertain clients until all hours?

Another approach is tracking how your body works over the course of a workday with a tool such as the emWave2, from HeartMath LLC, which monitors your pulse. You can then look at your stats on a desktop dashboard to see, for instance, what sorts of situations cause you the most stress. The program can then recommend ways to reduce anxiety, such as breathing techniques that can help you reduce your heart rate during a big presentation.

Tracking things at this intimate level might set off all sorts of alarm bells for workers. Many might wonder if an employer could get hold of the information and use it against them. So bosses should ensure that workers have the chance to encrypt or otherwise protect their data.


Mr. Wilson is senior researcher at Babson Executive Education

Revisiting Risk-Weighted Assets

Revisiting Risk-Weighted Assets. By Vanessa Le Leslé & Sofiya Avramova
IMF Working Paper No. 12/90
Mar 2012
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25807.0

Summary: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of the concerns surrounding the variations in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) across banks and jurisdictions and how this might undermine the Basel III capital adequacy framework. They discuss the key drivers behind the differences in these calculations, drawing upon a sample of systemically important banks from Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. Then, the authors discuss a range of policy options that could be explored to fix the actual and perceived problems with RWAs, and improve the use of risk-sensitive capital ratios.


Introduction

Strengthening capital ratios is a key priority in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.  Increasing the quantity, quality, and transparency of capital is of paramount importance to restore the banking sector to health. Recent regulatory reforms have primarily focused on improving the numerator of capital ratios, while changes to the denominator, i.e., riskweighted assets (RWAs), have been more limited.

Why look at RWAs now? Confidence in reported RWAs is ebbing. Market participants question the reliability and comparability of capital ratios, and contend that banks may not be as strong as they are portrayed by risk-based capital ratios. The Basel Committee recently announced it will review the measurement of RWAs and formulate policy responses to foster greater consistency across banks and jurisdictions.

The academic literature on capital is vast, but the focus on RWAs is more limited. Current studies mostly emanate from market participants, who highlight the wide variations existing in RWAs across banks. There is no convergence in views about the materiality and relative importance of these differences, and thus no consensus on policy implications.

This paper aims to shed light on the scale of the RWA variation issue and identify possible policy responses. The paper (i) discusses the importance of RWAs in the regulatory capital framework; (ii) highlights the main concerns and the controversy surrounding RWA calculations; (iii) identifies key drivers behind the differences in RWA calculations across jurisdictions and business models; and (iv) concludes with a discussion on the range of options that could be considered to restore confidence in banks’ RWA numbers.

A comprehensive analysis of broader questions, such as what is the best way to measure risk or predict losses, and what is the optimal amount of capital that banks should hold per unit of risk, is beyond the scope of this study. A comparison of the respective merits of the leverage and risk-based capital ratios is also outside our discussion.

Conclusion

Perceived differences in RWAs within and across countries have led to a diminishing of trust in the reliability of RWAs and capital ratios, and if not addressed, could affect the credibility of the regulatory framework in general. This paper is a first step towards shedding light on the extent and causes of RWA variability and to foster policy debate.

The paper seeks to disentangle key factors behind observed differences in RWAs, but does not quantify how much of the RWA variance can be explained by each factor. It concludes that a host of factors drive differences in RWA outputs between firms within a region and indeed across regions; many of these factors can be justified, but some less so. Differences in RWAs are not only the result of banks’ business model, risk profile, and RWA methodology (good or bad), but also the result of different supervisory practices. Aiming for full harmonization and convergence of RWA practices may not be achievable, and we would expect some differences to remain. It may be more constructive to focus on improving the transparency and understanding of outputs, and on providing common guidance on methodologies, for banks and supervisors alike.

The paper identifies a range of policy options to address the RWA issue, and contends that a multipronged approach seems the most effective path of reform. A combination of regulatory changes to the RWA regime, enhanced supervision, increased market disclosure, and more robust internal risk management may help restore confidence in RWAs and safeguard the integrity of the capital framework. Finally, the paper contends that even if RWAs are not perfect, retaining risk-sensitive capital ratios is still very important, and the latter can be backstopped by using them in tandem with unweighted capital measures.

This paper aims to encourage discussion and policy suggestions, while the Basel Committee undertakes a more extensive review of the RWA framework.

Accounting Devices and Fiscal Illusions

Accounting Devices and Fiscal Illusions. By Timothy C. Irwin
IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/12/02
March 28, 2012
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25795.0
ISBN/ISSN: 978-1-61635-386-5 / 2221-030X

A government seeking to reduce its deficit can be tempted to replace genuine spending cuts or tax increases with accounting devices that give the illusion of change without its substance, or that make the change appear larger than it actually is. Under ideal accounting standards, this would not be possible, but in real accounting it sometimes is. For example, governments can sometimes sell assets or borrow money and count the proceeds as revenue, or defer unavoidable spending without recognizing a liability. In each case, this year’s reported deficit is reduced, but only at the expense of future deficits. The result is that the reported deficit loses some of its accuracy as a fiscal indicator.

The use of accounting stratagems cannot be eliminated, but several things can be done to reduce their use or at least bring them quickly to light. Governments can be encouraged to prepare audited financial statements—income statement, cash-flow statement, and balance sheet—according to international accounting standards, and statisticians, who in many countries use accounting data to compile the most important (“headline”) fiscal indicators, can be given the resources and independence to be both expert and impartial, as well as the authority to revise standards in the light of emerging problems. To help reveal remaining problems in headline fiscal indicators, a variety of alternative fiscal indicators can be monitored, since a problem suppressed in one fiscal indicator is likely to show up in another.  Many of the devices documented in this note would be revealed if governments also reported change in net worth and high-quality long-term forecasts of the headline indicator of the deficit under current policy.